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Results for “predictive state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

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NASA NTRS2018

Remaining Flying Time Prediction Implementing Battery Prognostics Framework for Electric UAV's

In this paper the problem of building trust in the online safety prediction of an fixed wing small electric unmanned aerial vehicles (e-UAV) for remaining flying time is addressed. A series of flight tests are described to verify the performance of the remaining flying time prediction algorithm. The estimate of remaining flying time is used to activate an alarm when the predicted remaining time falls below a threshold of two minutes. This updates the pilot to transition to the landing sequence of the flight profile. A second alarm is activated when the battery state of charge (SOC) falls below a specified safety limit threshold. This SOC threshold is the point at which the battery energy reserve would no longer safely support enough aborted landing attempts. During the test flights, the motor system is operated with the same predefined timed airspeed profile for each test. To test the robustness of the developed prediction algorithm, partial tests were performed with and remaining were performed without a simulated power train fault. To simulate a partial power train fault in the e-UAV the pilot engages a resistor bank at a specified time during the test flight. The flying time prediction system is agnostic of the pilot's activation of the fault and must adapt to the vehicle's state. The time at which the limit threshold on battery SOC is reached, it is then used to measure the accuracy of the remaining flying time predictions. This is demonstrated through comparing results from two battery models being developed. Accuracy requirements for the alarms are considered and the results discussed.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗

NASA NTRS2019

Application of System Identification to Parachute Modeling

Parachute models are used in numerous flight simulation tools to predict a wide range of parachute flight performance characteristics (e.g., parachute inflation loads, parachute stability and dynamics, vehicle touchdown conditions, and, ultimately, the safety and survivability of the system using the parachute). The current state of the art in developing parachute models is to initially estimate the parachute characteristics based on the parachute geometry and historical data and then add increased model fidelity based on data from wind tunnel and/or flight tests. This approach, however, can be deficient in identifying which parachute states (e.g., angle of attack, sideslip, angular rates, flyout angles, descent rate, dynamic pressure, proximity to other parachutes) are responsible for the parachute motion, and the relationship between those states and the forces on the parachute.

Murri, Daniel G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Survey of Methods to Predict Controller Workload for Real-Time Monitoring of Airspace Safety

The Real Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) approach allows for assessment and prediction of the safety margin in the National Airspace System (NAS) to help preempt incidents and accidents, rather than having to reactively mitigate them. In RTSM, the NAS is modeled using state variables, and safety metrics are defined in terms of these state variables. The safety metrics have been classified as weather-related, airspace-related, and human-related. Many of the formulated human-related safety metrics need an estimate of the controller workload for their computation. However, this computation is not trivial. Hence, in this report, we perform a literature survey to identify the different factors that enable the computation of controller workload and categorize these factors. Next, we describe studies undertaken to determine a minimal set of factors that pro- vide a correct assessment of controller workload. Lastly, we survey approaches for evaluating how well the selected factors correlate with the controllers' subjective assessment of their workload. Based on this survey, we present factors beneficial to computing and predicting controller workload in real time, and discuss the status of data sources necessary for these computations.

National Airspace System↗

NASA NTRS1993

Predicting LANDSAT MSS endmember signatures from corresponding higher resolution TM fraction images

The approach to predicting Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) endmember signatures from fraction images derived from high resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data is presented. The purpose, conducted in the Mogi-Guacu study site located in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, was to determine if information derived from a mixture model applied to higher resolution TM data could serve as ground truth for the lower resolution MSS sensor. The Constrained Least Squares (CLS) method was used to generate vegetation, soil, and shade fraction images from the TM data. The resulting images were then used to estimate the endmember spectral response for MSS data by regressing each MSS spectral channel against the corresponding proportion values estimated for the same resolution cells from the TM mixture model. The evaluation of the predicted signatures was performed by comparing the corresponding fraction images derived from both the MSS and TM data acquired on 14 Sep. 1986. The techniques serves as a potential tool for integrating information in global studies where remote sensors with different spectral and spatial resolutions were used.

Shimabukuro, Yosio E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Observations of OH and CO in the Orion Molecular Cloud

The results of millimeter and submillimeter observations of the BN-KL region of the Orion molecular cloud are reported. Observations were made with a 91 cm bent Cassegrain telescope fitted with an interferometer/grating spectrometer during flights at 13-14 km altitude in the NASA Kuiper Observatory. The data collected covered the 2Pi(1/2)J = 3/2 yields 1/2 and 2Pi(3/2)J = 7/2 yields 5/2 rotational transitions of OH. The measurements were made at 163 and 84 micron wavelengths, respectively. The OH emitting regions was estimated to have a temperature of 1000 K and a molecular hydrogen density of about 6 million/cu cm. Depopulation of the excited states of OH was caused primarily by collisional excitation. The OH fill factor for the region survey was about 10 percent, in line with predictions for a post-shocked region.

Viscuso, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

What can we learn about impact mechanics from large craters on Venus?

More than 50 unequivocal peak-ring craters and multiringed impact basins have been identified on Venus from Earth-based Arecibo, Venera 15/16, and Magellan radar images. These ringed craters are relatively pristine, and so serve as an important new dataset that will further understanding of the structural and rheological properties of the venusian surface and of impact mechanics in general. They are also the most direct analogues for craters formed on the Earth in Phanerozoic time. Finite-element simulations of basin collapse and ring formation were undertaken in collaboration with V. J. Hillgren (University of Arizona). These calculations used an axisymmetric version of the viscoelastic finite element code TECTON, modeled structures on the scale of Klenova or Meitner, and demonstrated two major points. First, viscous flow and ring formation are possible on the timescale of crater collapse for the sizes of multiringed basins seen on Venus and heat flows appropriate to the plant. Second, an elastic lithosphere overlying a Newtonian viscous asthenosphere results mainly in uplift beneath the crater. Inward asthenospheric flow mainly occurs at deeper levels. Lithospheric response is dominantly vertical and flexural. Tensional stress maxima occur and ring formation by normal faulting is predicted in some cases, but these predicted rings occur too far out to explain observed ring spacings on Venus (or on the Moon). Overall, these estimates and models suggest that multiringed basin formation is indeed possible at the scales observed on Venus. Furthermore, due to the strong inverse dependence of solid-state viscosity on stress, the absence of Cordilleran-style ring faulting in craters smaller than Meitner or Klenova makes sense. The apparent increase in viscosity of shock-fluidized rock with crater diameter, greater interior temperatures accessed by larger, deeper craters, and decreased non-Newtonian viscosity associated with larger craters may conspire to make the transition with diameter from peak-ring crater to Orientale-type multiringed basin rather abrupt.

Mckinnon, William B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Estimating urban temperature bias using polar-orbiting satellite data

Urban temperature bias, defined to be the difference between a shelter temperature reading of unknown but suspected urban influence and some appropriate rural reference temperature, is estimated through the use of polar-orbiting satellite data. Predicted rural temperatures, based on a method developed using sounding data, are shown to be of reasonable accuracy in many cases for urban bias assessments using minimum temperature data from selected urban regions in the United States in July 1989. Assessments of predicted urban bias were based on comparisons with observed bias, as well as independent measures of urban heat island influence, such as population statistics and urban-rural differences in a vegetation index. This technique provides a means of determining urban bias in regions where few if any rural reference stations are available, or where inhomogeneities exist in land surface characteristics or rural station locations.

Johnson, Gregory L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Assimilation of Multi-Frequency, Multi-Polarization Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations in North America over Snow-Covered Regions Using Support Vector Machines

Accurately estimating the mass of water within a snowpack (a.k.a. snow water equivalent, or SWE) across regional or continental scales is a challenge. In order to overcome some of the limitations in traditional SWE retrieval algorithms or radiative transfer-based snow emission models, this study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) to merge an advanced land surface model within a radiance emission (i.e., brightness temperature) assimilation framework. The goal of direct radiance assimilation is preferable as it avoids inconsistencies in the use of ancillary data between the assimilation system and the independently-generated geophysical retrieval. The impact of assimilating multiple observations simultaneously at different frequency and polarization combinations is then evaluated via comparisons to state-of-the-art SWE and snow depth products as well as available ground-based measurements across North America for the years 2002 through 2011. It is found that assimilation-derived estimates (relative to estimates without assimilation) tend to better agree with state-of-the-art snow products. In addition, an overall improvement in goodness-of-fit statistics for snow estimates is achieved via assimilation when compared against ground-based snow measurements. In addition, these improvements in snow are shown to translate into improvements in streamflow predictions. Specifically, 11 out of the 13 major snow-dominated basins investigated have improved cumulative runoff estimates versus ground-based discharge measurements compared to the no-assimilation scenario. It is proven that a SVM can serve as an efficient and effective observation operator for a snow mass analysis within a radiance assimilation system.

Xue, Yuan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Yearly Fine Resolution Global Surface Ozone through the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion of Observations and Model Output for 1990–2017

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we use a novel combination of the M3Fusion and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) methods. With M3Fusion, we create a multi-model composite by bias-correcting and weighting nine global atmospheric chemistry models based on their ability to predict observations (8,834 sites globally)in each region and year. BME is then used to integrate observations, such that estimates match observations at each monitoring site with the observational influence decreasing smoothly across space and time until the output matches the multi-model composite. After estimating at 0.5° resolution using BME, we add fine spatial detail from an additional model, yielding estimates at 0.1° resolution. Observed ozone is predicted more accurately (R2=0.81 at test point, 0.63 at 0.1°,0.62 at 0.5°) than the multi-model mean (R2=0.28 at 0.5°). Global ozone exposure is estimated to be increasing, driven by highly populated regions of Asia and Africa, despite decreases in the United States and Russia.

environmental modeling↗

NASA NTRS2009

Terrestrial Carbon Sinks in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado Region Predicted from MODIS Satellite Data and Ecosystem Modeling

A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2004. Net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 in the region for these years was estimated. Consistently high carbon sink fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems on a yearly basis were found in the western portions of the states of Acre and Rondonia and the northern portions of the state of Par a. These areas were not significantly impacted by the 2002-2003 El Nino event in terms of net annual carbon gains. Areas of the region that show periodically high carbon source fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere on yearly basis were found throughout the state of Maranhao and the southern portions of the state of Amazonas. As demonstrated though tower site comparisons, NEP modeled with monthly MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) inputs closely resembles the measured seasonal carbon fluxes at the LBA Tapajos tower site. Modeling results suggest that the capacity for use of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data to predict seasonal uptake rates of CO2 in Amazon forests and Cerrado woodlands is strong.

Potter, C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Heat transfer in a real engine environment

The hot section facility at the Lewis Research Center was used to demonstrate the capability of instruments to make required measurements of boundary conditions of the flow field and heat transfer processes in the hostile environment of the turbine. The results of thermal scaling tests show that low temperature and pressure rig tests give optimistic estimates of the thermal performance of a cooling design for high pressure and temperature application. The results of measuring heat transfer coefficients on turbine vane airfoils through dynamic data analysis show good comparison with measurements from steady state heat flux gauges. In addition, the data trends are predicted by the STAN5 boundary layer code. However, the magnitude of the experimental data was not predicted by the analysis, particularly in laminar and transitional regions near the leading edge. The infrared photography system was shown capable of providing detailed surface thermal gradients and secondary flow features on a turbine vane and endwell.

Gladden, Herbert J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Multi-Satellite Assimilation and Modeling Platform to Construct a Global and Complete view of the Hydrologic Cycle

What captivates me about the research field of satellite remote sensing of the earth system science is the opportunity to help human beings by addressing challenging questions related to the current and future availability of natural resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. For example, a continuously varying climate poses a threat to the water resource, not only in developing countries, but also in economically well-developed regions, creating the urgent need to characterize and predict its spatial and temporal availability. Specifically, my curiosity is driven by the challenge of merging cutting-edge space technology and earth observations (i.e., remote sensing) with state-of-the-art models for the purpose of improving our scientific knowledge about the variability and the change of the hydrologic cycle.The only practical way to observe the land surface processes (e.g., hydrologic cycle) on continental to global scales is via satellite remote sensing. Though remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the land surface system, it cannot provide direct information on the entire system, and the measurements represent only a snapshot in time. Physical based models may be used to continuously predict the temporal and spatial earth processes, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and meteorological forcing errors, and inadequate model physics and/or resolution. Thus, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of land surface models and observations (and minimize the weaknesses of both) to provide a superior land surface state estimate. This is the goal of land surface data assimilation. Data assimilation provides a better estimate of the environmental states than either models or observations could individually do. The broad concept of data assimilation can be applied to various disciplines such as hydrology, ecology, environmental hazards, agriculture and economy.My research is targeted to integrating multiple satellite information having multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation within today's state-of-the-art hydrologic models. Multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation techniques represent a necessary milestone in future earth science applications because they offer the capability of comprehensively integrating disparate types of earth observations via deep-learning techniques. A multi-satellite assimilation and modeling platform will ultimately provide a robust and complete dataset to more fully understand earth's dynamics. In fact, the multi-satellite assimilation platforms build a comprehensive description of the earth processes that is geared toward accurately representing the complexity of natural and anthropogenic interactions in land surface processes. Most importantly, these platforms are suitable as decision support tools for applications across different aspects of earth system science.My recent work has focused on recent multi-sensor data assimilation techniques targeted at improving snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and terrestrial water storage hydrological states.

Girotto, Manuela↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mass Inferencing Model Creation And Deployment To Lunar Excavation Robot, RASSOR

NASA’s Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a teleoperated mobile robotic platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. This research project developed functionality for inferencing regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete ISRU missions. Radio wave propagation time to the Moon and back is ~2.56 seconds. Though teleoperation is possible with this delay, autonomous capability that enables RASSOR to plan and execute excavation missions intelligently and efficiently is preferred. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the quantity of regolith mass ingested by RASSOR to be available as a system state for efficient operation (e.g. knowledge of whether drums are full informs the task of highest priority, whether it be continuing to dig, or returning to a processing plant to offload regolith). A configurable data reduction and analysis pipeline was created to allow for straightforward incorporation of new data, such as that from lunar excavation, to improve model performance in new environments. Four distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR. All four models take in system states and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums. Initial results from deployment to RASSOR and testing in a simulated lunar environment show that the models have <10% mean error during robot operation. Future work includes refinement of a model that estimates regolith mass in real-time during excavation as well as further testing of the developed models on the hardware.

ROS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Apollo 15 mission report. Supplement 2: Service propulsion system final flight evaluation

The command and service module 112 service propulsion system performance for the Apollo 15 mission was evaluated and found to be satisfactory. The following items were considered: (1) the steady-state performance as determined from analysis of the third and eight burns; (2) techniques, problems, and assumptions; (3) flight analysis results as compared to the preflight predicted performance; (4) the propellant utilization and gaging system operation; (5) the pressurization system performance; (6) transient data; and (7) revision of estimated propellant consumption.

Smith, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Accurate ab initio Quartic Force Fields of Cyclic and Bent HC2N Isomers

Highly correlated ab initio quartic force field (QFFs) are used to calculate the equilibrium structures and predict the spectroscopic parameters of three HC2N isomers. Specifically, the ground state quasilinear triplet and the lowest cyclic and bent singlet isomers are included in the present study. Extensive treatment of correlation effects were included using the singles and doubles coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations, denoted CCSD(T). Dunning s correlation-consistent basis sets cc-pVXZ, X=3,4,5, were used, and a three-point formula for extrapolation to the one-particle basis set limit was used. Core-correlation and scalar relativistic corrections were also included to yield highly accurate QFFs. The QFFs were used together with second-order perturbation theory (with proper treatment of Fermi resonances) and variational methods to solve the nuclear Schr dinger equation. The quasilinear nature of the triplet isomer is problematic, and it is concluded that a QFF is not adequate to describe properly all of the fundamental vibrational frequencies and spectroscopic constants (though some constants not dependent on the bending motion are well reproduced by perturbation theory). On the other hand, this procedure (a QFF together with either perturbation theory or variational methods) leads to highly accurate fundamental vibrational frequencies and spectroscopic constants for the cyclic and bent singlet isomers of HC2N. All three isomers possess significant dipole moments, 3.05D, 3.06D, and 1.71D, for the quasilinear triplet, the cyclic singlet, and the bent singlet isomers, respectively. It is concluded that the spectroscopic constants determined for the cyclic and bent singlet isomers are the most accurate available, and it is hoped that these will be useful in the interpretation of high-resolution astronomical observations or laboratory experiments.

Inostroza, Natalia↗

NASA NTRS1982

An estimation of aerodynamic forces and moments on an airplane model under steady state spin conditions

The problem of estimating the aerodynamic characteristics of a wing body configuration of a spinning airplane at extreme angles of attack and spin rates is approached by the application of strip theory. Semiempirical methods are used to estimate the aerodynamic force distributions over each component using static, nonrotational wind-tunnel test data. To these predictions, corrections are applied to account for the primary rotational flow effects which are significant at large spin rates. The results of this modified strip theory are shown to be in good agreement with spin tunnel rotary balance test data.

Pamadi, B. N.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Momentum-Based Indicator for Predicting the Peak Opening Load of Supersonic Parachutes

In this paper, a new empirical indicator for predicting the peak opening loads of supersonic parachutes is presented. The proposed indicator is proportional to twice the free-stream dynamic pressure and the projected area of the parachute, which is equivalent to estimating the opening load as a percentage of the free-stream momentum flux through the projected area at the moment of peak inflation. The form of this expression is motivated by a classical control volume analysis of the aerodynamic forces acting on a parachute during inflation, under the simplifying assumptions of quasi-static and one-dimensional flow. For parachute geometries and flight conditions typical of Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing systems, the largest contribution to the total drag is shown to be a momentum flux term that is associated with the entrainment of atmosphere within the inflating parachute volume. Using this new method, empirical constants are calculated from existing flight reconstruction data and are shown to have a smaller standard deviation than similar constants determined using the customary indicator form, which is based on the steady-state subsonic drag and proportional to the parachute reference area. These empirical constants are also compared to an analytic estimate, derived from the control volume analysis, and shown to have excellent agreement across a wide range of Mach numbers and dynamic pressures for several parachute geometries. While opening loads estimated using both methods produce similar results at low supersonic Mach numbers typical of past inflations, the proposed method predicts notably larger loads at higher Mach numbers, those above Mach 2.0, due to the omission of any Mach Efficiency Factor. Several current Mars EDL projects have adopted this new indicator.

Way, David W.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Prediction of the bulk temperature in spur gears based on finite element temperature analysis

The temperature distribution in spur gears operating in a state of thermal equilibrium is solved by using a finite element method. The effects of various dimensionless parameters on bulk temperature are shown. A table is provided which can be used to predict the bulk temperature on gear teeth, once the heat transfer coefficients and frictional heat input is estimated. Theoretical results for estimating heat transfer coefficients and frictional heat are also summarized.

Patir, N.↗