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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification (LDRD 218317)

This report summarizes the work done under the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled "Learning Hidden Structure in Multi-Fidelity Information Sources for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification". In this project we investigated multi-fidelity strategies for fusing data from information sources of varying cost and accuracy. Most existing strategies exploit hierarchical relationships between models, for example that occur when different models are generated by refining a numerical discretization parameter. In this work we focused on encoding the relationships between information sources using directed acyclic graphs. The multi-fidelity networks can have general structure and represent a significantly greater variety of modeling relationships than recursive networks used in the current state literature. Numerical results show that a non-hierarchical multi-fidelity Monte Carlo strategy can reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in predictions of a model of plasma expanding in a vacuum by almost two orders of magnitude.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Vector quantization for efficient coding of upper subbands

This paper examines the application of vector quantization (VQ) to exploit both intra-band and inter-band redundancy in subband coding. The focus here is on the exploitation of inter-band dependency. It is shown that VQ is particularly suitable and effective for coding the upper subbands. Three subband decomposition-based VQ coding schemes are proposed here to exploit the inter-band dependency by making full use of the extra flexibility of VQ approach over scalar quantization. A quadtree-based variable rate VQ (VRVQ) scheme which takes full advantage of the intra-band and inter-band redundancy is first proposed. Then, a more easily implementable alternative based on an efficient block-based edge estimation technique is employed to overcome the implementational barriers of the first scheme. Finally, a predictive VQ scheme formulated in the context of finite state VQ is proposed to further exploit the dependency among different subbands. A VRVQ scheme proposed elsewhere is extended to provide an efficient bit allocation procedure. Simulation results show that these three hybrid techniques have advantages, in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and complexity, over other existing subband-VQ approaches.

Zeng, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Helicopter Flight Simulation Motion Platform Requirements

To determine motion fidelity requirements, a series of piloted simulations was performed. Several key results were found. First, lateral and vertical translational platform cues had significant effects on fidelity. Their presence improved performance and reduced pilot workload. Second, yaw and roll rotational platform cues were not as important as the translational platform cues. In particular, the yaw rotational motion platform cue did not appear at all useful in improving performance or reducing workload. Third, when the lateral translational platform cue was combined with visual yaw rotational cues, pilots believed the platform was rotating when it was not. Thus, simulator systems can be made more efficient by proper combination of platform and visual cues. Fourth, motion fidelity specifications were revised that now provide simulator users with a better prediction of motion fidelity based upon the frequency responses of their motion control laws. Fifth, vertical platform motion affected pilot estimates of steady-state altitude during altitude repositioning. Finally, the combined results led to a general method for configuring helicopter motion systems and for developing simulator tasks that more likely represent actual flight. The overall results can serve as a guide to future simulator designers and to today's operators.

Schroeder, Jeffery Allyn↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Physics Guided Optical Flow for Tracking Atmospheric Motion

Observations of atmospheric 3D winds are critical for improving short-range and long-range forecasting. Such advancement in forecasting directly applies to research in a number of areas including convective processes, wildfire plumes and tornado prediction. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) provide a passively sensed approach to quantifying horizontal motion and cloud heights, which are typically sourced from geostationary sensors due to the availability of high frequency observations. Recent work has shown that estimating AMVs by tracking individual pixels with dense optical flow is a promising new direction. In this work, we compare state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks for optical flow in a physics-guided deep learning framework for predicting AMVs. The approach is semi-supervised and uses physically informed wind vectors from high-resolution numerical simulations for supervised learning followed by fine-tuning though warping and reconstruction of full-disk geostationary images (GOES-16). In the vertical direction, we use labels from the CALIPSO low-earth orbit satellite to predict cloud height from 16-band geostationary images with a neural network. We present results for both tasks on held-out time periods and secondary datasets.

Geostationary↗
NASA NTRS1982

Lateral control system design for VTOL landing on a DD963 in high sea states

The problem of designing lateral control systems for the safe landing of VTOL aircraft on small ships is addressed. A ship model is derived. The issues of estimation and prediction of ship motions are discussed, using optimal linear linear estimation techniques. The roll motion is the most important of the lateral motions, and it is found that it can be predicted for up to 10 seconds in perfect conditions. The automatic landing of the VTOL aircraft is considered, and a lateral controller, defined as a ship motion tracker, is designed, using optimal control techniqes. The tradeoffs between the tracking errors and the control authority are obtained. The important couplings between the lateral motions and controls are demonstrated, and it is shown that the adverse couplings between the sway and the roll motion at the landing pad are significant constraints in the tracking of the lateral ship motions. The robustness of the control system, including the optimal estimator, is studied, using the singular values analysis. Through a robustification procedure, a robust control system is obtained, and the usefulness of the singular values to define stability margins that take into account general types of unstructured modelling errors is demonstrated. The minimal destabilizing perturbations indicated by the singular values analysis are interpreted and related to the multivariable Nyquist diagrams.

Bodson, M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography, digital radiography, and ultrasound. The accuracy of the fused estimates are validated against data generated from synthetic specimens, and by comparison against high resolution X-ray computed tomography inspections of built specimens.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Broad-band Spectral and Timing Study of the X-Ray Binary System Centaurus X-3

This dissertation describes a multi-mission investigation of the high mass X-ray binary pulsar Centaurus X-3. Cen X-3 was observed with the Broad Band X-Ray Telescope (BBXRT) in December 1990. This was the first high-resolution solid state X-ray spectrometer to cover the iron K fluorescence region. The Fe K emission feature was resolved into two components for the first time. A broad 6.7 keV feature was found to be a blend of lines from Fe XXI-Fe XXVI with energies ranging from 6.6 to 6.9 keV due to photoionization of the companion's stellar wind. A narrow line at 6.4 keV due to fluorescence of iron in relatively low ionization states was also found. The quasi-periodic oscillations (QPO) at about 40 mHz were used to estimate the surface magnetic field of Cen X-3 as approx. 2.6 x 10(exp 12) G and to predict that there should be a cyclotron scattering resonance absorption feature (CSRF) near 30 keV. In order to further resolve the iron line complex and to investigate the pulse-phase dependence of the iron line intensities, Cen X-3 was observed with the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA). Using ASCA's state-of-the-art non-dispersive X-ray spectrometers the 6.4 keV fluorescent iron line was found to be pulsing while the intensities of the 6.7 and 6.9 keV recombination lines do not vary with pulse phase. This confirms that the 6.4 keV line is due to reflection by relatively neutral matter close to the neutron star while the recombination lines originate in the extended stellar wind. The continuum spectrum was found to be modified by reflection from matter close to the neutron star. Observations with the EXOSAT GSPC were used to search for a CSRF. The EXOSAT spectra were consistent with the presence of a CSRF but an unambiguous detection was not possible because of a lack of sensitivity at energies higher than the cyclotron energy. Cen X-3 was then observed with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and evidence for a CSRF at 25.1 +/- 0.3 keV was found. This corresponds to a magnetic field of (2.16 +/- 0.03) X 10(exp 12) G and is consistent with the value obtained from the QPO analysis.

Audley, Michael Damian↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗
DOE OSTI2024

NUCLEI (SciDAC-4) effort at The University of Tennessee, Knoxville

This Report summarizes the accomplishments of NUCLEI researchers at The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and those supported via subcontracts at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC) and Iowa State University (ISU). The SciDAC-4 NUCLEI collaboration had the goal to advance the computation of atomic nuclei and to make reliable predictions including uncertainty estimates for observables of interest. These goals were achieved by developing improved nuclear interactions and currents that are input to the computations, and by advancing the algorithms and techniques used for computing nuclear observables of interest. The computed results advanced our understanding of how nuclei work; they helped to guide and interpret experiments at existing low-energy nuclear physics facilities, the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, Jefferson Laboratory, and neutrino experiments. In addition, predictions were made that await confrontation with experimental results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Analysis for an Economically and Environmentally Viable Transition to Heavy-Duty Vehicles with Alternative Powertrains

The transportation sector is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Within the sector, truck freight is responsible for a third of the associated emissions. Alternative powertrains are seen as a viable approach to significantly reduce these emissions. Prior to making a large-scale transition, it is important to consider the following questions: will the power grid support a transition to alternative powertrains?; will the transition truly reduce carbon emissions?; and will the transition impose an unnecessary economic burden on companies within the industry? The answer to these questions, however, can vary by geography, maturity/capacity of the energy distribution network or predicted vehicle load. We focus on the latter two questions, investigating the variation in estimated total cost of ownership and carbon emissions across the United States at the zip code level for both heavy-duty battery electric vehicles and heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. As a benchmark, we compare estimated emissions and costs of alternative powertrain vehicles to that of conventional heavy-duty vehicles powered by diesel internal combustion engines. This work highlights areas with electric grids primed for a transition to alternative powertrain vehicles, such as the Pacific Northwest, and areas that require further infrastructure investment in renewables, such as many of the Mountain states, Missouri, and Florida. Additionally, this work illustrates the current advantages in carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles compared to fuel-cell electric vehicles, while providing insights into required regional investments for narrowing the gap.

Goulet, Nate [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237314965)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Mass ejection from the O4f star Zeta Puppis

Profiles of P Cygni lines and displaced absorption lines observed in high-resolution Copernicus UV scans of Zeta Pup from 907 to 1738 A are compared with profile calculations to derive an optical-depth scale of the lines as a function of height or velocity in the expanding envelope. The degrees of ionization of the elements C, N, O, Si, and S under equilibrium conditions at electron temperatures of 20,000 to 1 million K, radiation temperatures of 20,000 to 50,000 K, and electron number densities of 100 million to 1 trillion per cu cm are computed with a dilution factor of 0.1, taking into account collisional ionization by electrons, radiative ionization from the ground state, radiative recombination, and dielectric recombination. Observed and predicted relative ionization fractions are then compared to determine the electron and radiation temperatures. Crude and refined estimates of the mass-loss rate and velocity law are made, and radiative acceleration in the expanding envelope is analyzed. The derived model for Zeta Pup is found to have a mass-loss rate of about 7.2 millionths of a solar mass per year, a wind velocity that increases slowly outward and reaches 700 km/s about 28 solar masses, and a nearly isothermal envelope with an electron temperature of approximately 200,000 K.

Lamers, H. J. G. L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Atmospheric Delay Reduction Using KARAT for GPS Analysis and Implications for VLBI

We have been developing a state-of-the-art tool to estimate the atmospheric path delays by raytracing through mesoscale analysis (MANAL) data, which is operationally used for numerical weather prediction by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The tools, which we have named KAshima RAytracing Tools (KARAT)', are capable of calculating total slant delays and ray-bending angles considering real atmospheric phenomena. The KARAT can estimate atmospheric slant delays by an analytical 2-D ray-propagation model by Thayer and a 3-D Eikonal solver. We compared PPP solutions using KARAT with that using the Global Mapping Function (GMF) and Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1) for GPS sites of the GEONET (GPS Earth Observation Network System) operated by Geographical Survey Institute (GSI). In our comparison 57 stations of GEONET during the year of 2008 were processed. The KARAT solutions are slightly better than the solutions using VMF1 and GMF with linear gradient model for horizontal and height positions. Our results imply that KARAT is a useful tool for an efficient reduction of atmospheric path delays in radio-based space geodetic techniques such as GNSS and VLBI.

Ichikawa, Ryuichi↗