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Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wild fire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry, a Marin-based fire service work force development program, to develop new models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, Planet Scope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the team developed several input data layers to three models evaluating wild fire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature, another utilized machine learning based on past fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn ratio, and the third inputted data layers into the Flam Map tool, which outputs risk categories. The team compared model outputs and, using the best-fit model, performed fuzzy logic analysis to identify specific locations where a fire break could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools were proven useful and will assist partners in preparing for and managing an active wildfire event.

Suhani Dalal↗

The importance of properties in modeling

Casting and welding of superalloys, stainless steel and titanium alloys are processes which can be improved through modeling of heat flow, fluid flow, residual stress development, and microstructural evolution. These simulations require inputs of thermophysical data, some of which involves the partially or totally liquid state. In particular, these processes involve melting, flow in the liquid, and solidification. Modeling of such processes can lead to an improved understanding of defects such as shrinkage, inclusions, cracks, incomplete filling (or penetration), macrosegregation, improper grain structure, and deviations from dimensional specifications. Effective modeling can shorten process development time and improve quality. An approach to these problems is to develop efficient models; validate through correlations with thermal, distortion, and microstructural data; run parametric studies; extract knowledge based rules; and apply to adaptive closed loop control systems. With the appropriate pre- and post-processing, such analyses can be made 'user friendly'. This would include graphical user interfaces as well as realistic images and color maps. In such form, these models can be used for sensitivity analyses, which are useful in defining appropriate sensors and in the development of control strategies. Such modeling can be done at several levels, e.g., the MARO level, modeling large scale phenomena such as heat and fluid flow or material deformation; the MICRO level, modeling the development of dendrites, grains or precipitates; or at the NANO level, modeling point defects, dislocations, stacking faults, etc. There are many computational issues associated with these simulations, e.g. computational efficiency and accuracy. In addition, there are many materials issues, not the least of which is the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data for complex alloys. This would include latent heat of fusion, temperature dependent heat capacity and thermal conductivity (for liquid and solid), viscosity, surface tension, thermal expansion, mechanical properties, etc. Preliminary data is frequently gathered from the literature; however, this is often not available for modern alloys. If additional data are required, measurements can be used; however, these are costly, time consuming and can be erroneous due to a lack of testing standards or impure materials. Microstructural predictors can be extracted from thermal information, e.g. cooling rate and thermal gradient; the prediction of microstructure is dependent on solidus and liquidus temperature, mushy zone permeability, the solidification curve, volume changes, phase transformations, alloying effects (such as surface tension or viscosity), mold/metal reactions, metal/environment reactions, etc. Defect maps may be needed to predict the onset of shrinkage, hot cracking or 'freckling'. Constants may be needed for stress relaxation, dendrite coarsening, vaporization, etc. Visualization was used as a tool to better comprehend complex data sets associated with the analysis of directional solidification (including crystal growth) and welding. Examples include not only isotherms, but also cooling rate, growth rate and thermal gradient. The latter two are not single valued scalars, but rather time and space dependent vector fields. Efficient models were developed for both casting and welding to predict heat flow and the relationship to dendrite and grain growth. These codes include many of the non-linear effects, e.g. radiation, which dominate these processes. The home-built FDM code(s) were designed to be useful not only to the scientist, but also to the process engineer. Special output can be requested to compare directly to experimental data. Visualization procedures were developed to visualize critical results, e.g. fusion zone width at the surface opposite that where the arc is applied ('penetration'). Both elaborate and simplified distortion analyses were carried out. It is clear that extensive mechanical property data are critical in order to accurately predict residual stress patterns. A scheme is currently being developed to integrate these modeling tools into a set of control algorithms; however, the success of this approach is critically dependent on the availability of accurate high temperature thermophysical data.

Giamei, A. F.↗

Estimation of Daily PM(sub 10) Concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) Using Finely Resolved Satellite Data, Land Use Variables and Meteorology

Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM10measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM10concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM10=0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM10levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM10concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particulate Matter/analysis↗

Recent advancements in information extraction methodology and hardware for earth resources survey systems

The present work discusses some recent developments in preprocessing and extractive processing techniques and hardware and in user applications model development for earth resources survey systems. The Multivariate Interactive Digital Analysis System (MIDAS) is currently being developed, and is an attempt to solve the problem of real time multispectral data processing in an operational system. The main features and design philosophy of this system are described. Examples of wetlands mapping and land resource inventory are presented. A user model developed for predicting the yearly production of mallard ducks from remote sensing and ancillary data is described.

Erickson, J. D.↗

Single shaft automotive gas turbine engine characterization test

An automotive gas turbine incorporating a single stage centrifugal compressor and a single stage radial inflow turbine is described. Among the engine's features is the use of wide range variable geometry at the inlet guide vanes, the compressor diffuser vanes, and the turbine inlet vanes to achieve improved part load fuel economy. The engine was tested to determine its performance in both the variable geometry and equivalent fixed geometry modes. Testing was conducted without the originally designed recuperator. Test results were compared with the predicted performance of the nonrecuperative engine based on existing component rig test maps. Agreement between test results and the computer model was achieved.

Johnson, R. A.↗

Solar wind flow about the terrestrial planets. I - Modeling bow shock position and shape

A three-parameter method for modeling the position and shape of planetary bow waves was chosen to model the near portion of the Venus, earth and Mars bow shocks, and its results were compared with those of models using one to six free variables. It was found that the relative effective shapes of the near Martian, Cytherean, and terrestrial bow shocks are ellipsoidal, paraboloidal, and hyperboloidal, respectively, in response to the increasing bluntness of the obstacles that the planets present to the solar wind. No significant deviations from axial symmetry were found when the near bow waves of the earth and Venus were mapped into the aberrated terminator plane, in agreement with gas dynamic theory predictions neglecting the effects of the IMF because of their minuteness.

Slavin, J. A.↗

Location of spaceborne SAR imagery

A method has been developed to determine the location of a pixel in a digital SAR image. This technique utilizes the spacecraft ephemeris data and the characteristics of the SAR data collection system to produce an estimate of the latitude and longitude of an arbitary pixel. This approach has an advantage over previous techniques in that it requires no reference points and is independent of spacecraft attitude knowledge or control. Tests were conducted using Seasat SAR imagery, comparing predicted feature location with the location as determined by high precision area maps. Rusults indicate an accuracy of 200 m is attainable with this method. Error sources are analyzed and recommendations are given to improve image location accuracy in future spaceborne SAR's.

Curlander, J. C.↗

Linear simulation of the stationary eddies in a general circulation model. I - The no-mountain model

A linear primitive-equation stationary-wave model is developed to describe Northern Hemisphere winter stationary eddies on a sphere, and simulation results are compared with the predictions of a flat-lower-boundary GCM in extensive graphs and maps. The linear model is shown to reproduce the general behavior of the GCM well, with 10-30-percent underestimation of amplitudes in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical upper troposphere. The response to global heating plus transient eddy flux convergences is then decomposed into responses to total tropical forcing (heating plus transients) and total extratropical forcing (upper and lower tropospheric transients and latent, sensible, and radiative heating). The quality of the simulation is found to deteriorate rapidly if transient forcing is omitted, although somewhat better results are obtained by substituting thermal damping for transient forcing. The importance of low-level-transient parameterization for theories of time-mean low-level flow is emphasized.

Nigam, Sumant↗

A model of electronic map interpretation

This paper describes an experiment that provides data for the development of a cognitive model of pilot flight navigation. The model views navigation as a process involving the alignment of mental images with the perceptual view out of the cockpit. The data support a three stage model: (1) the perceptual encoding of the map display, (2) mental rotation of the mental image, and (3) comparison of the image to the environment. The variables that significantly influence the processes embodied in the model in decreasing importance are: speed of processing, display sequencing, map complexity, and rotation angle of the map. The model can be used as a preliminary computational tool in predicting the navigational component of pilot situational awareness.

Aretz, Anthony J.↗

Submillimeter molecular line observations of cometary Levy (1990c)

Observations of HCN and H2CO in Comet Levy (1990c) obtained at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory during August 1990 are presented. The HCN J=3-2 rotational line was measured at high spectral resolution (0.1 km/s) and mapped at 13 points over a region of approximately 1.5 arcmin. Analysis of the line profile and the map suggest only slight deviations from the distribution expected for isotropic outgassing of HCN from the nucleus at a velocity of 0.7 plus or minus 0.1 km/s. Observations of the HCN J=4-3 and H2CO5(sub 15)4(sub 14) transitions were obtained simultaneously on two days following the HCN J=3-2 measurements. These transitions are the first submillimeter spectral lines to be detected in a comet. Five point maps of the emission show good consistency between the J=3-2 and J=4-3 HCN observations for an HCN production rate of 2 x 10(exp 26) and a rotational temperature of approximately 30 K. The map of H2CO emission indicates that it is more extended than the prediction of models in which H2CO originates entirely from the nucleus. H2CO may also originate from an extended source in the coma.

Schloerb, F. Peter↗

MAMS data for the Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX)

During the fall of 1993, NASA sponsored a field program called the Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX). The field effort focused on: convective storms in order to investigate their associated electrical properties, precipitation, and predictability, and atmospheric moisture studies. The data collected from the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) onboard a NASA ER-2 aircraft which was deployed out of NASA/Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, from 11 Sep. through 7 Oct., 1993, is described.

Guillory, A. R.↗

Validation of mesoscale models

The topics discussed include the following: verification of cloud prediction from the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model; results form MAPS/NGM verification comparisons and MAPS observation sensitivity tests to ACARS and profiler data; systematic errors and mesoscale verification for a mesoscale model; and the COMPARE Project and the CME.

Kuo, Bill↗

Bell Regio, Venus: Integration of remote sensing data and terrestrial analogs for geologic analysis

The geology and surface morphology of Bell Regio (18-42 deg N, 32-58 deg E) are investigated using a combination of Magellan, Venera, and analogous terrestrial data. The properties of surface units are compared to either direct terrestrial analog measurements or to the behaviors predicted by theoretical models. Five major volcanic sources are identified from geologic mapping (Tepev Mons, Nefertiti corona, a large shield volcano east of Tepev, and two small edifices southeast of Tepev). The volcano Api Mons lies northeast of the main Bell uplift. The oldest volcanic units are associated with an extensive low shield volcano east of Tepev Mons and a small edifice southeast of Tepev. The annular flow apron of Tepev Mons formed next, with volcanism at a second small edifice on the southeast flank of Tepev Mons producing the youngest flow units. Comparisons between Magellan data, terrestrial radar images, and field topography profiles suggest that only three units resemble terrestrial a'a flows; the remainder are consistent with smoother pahoehoe-type surfaces. This suggests that most of the flow units were erupted at relatively low volume effusion rates (less than 100 cu m/sec) over long periods of time or had very low viscosities

Campbell, Bruce A.↗

KWIC: A Widefield Mid-Infrared Array Camera/Spectrometer for the KAO

This grant covered a one year data analysis period for the data we obtained with the Kuiper Widefield Infrared Camera (KWIC) on the KAO during CY94 and CY95. A fairly complete list of scientific papers produced, or soon to be produced under this award is contained at the end of this report. Below we summarize some of the highlights of the work we did under this grant. KWIC Imaging of the Orion Nebula. KWIC was successfully developed under the KAO grants program (NASA grant NAG2-800). First funding arrived in November of 1992, and we flew our first two flights in February of 1994 -just 15 months later. These flights were very successful. We imaged the Orion Nebula in the 37.7 micron continuum and [SiII] 35 micron line and imaged M82 and Arp299 in the 37.7 micron continuum. Our Orion image demonstrates that the 37.7 micron continuum arises in the warm dust associated with the photodissociated surfaces (photodissociation regions, or PDRs) of molecular clouds. We use the brightness and color temperature distribution to ascertain the morphology of the Orion PDR. The [SiII] image of Orion encompassed the entire Orion A HII region and its enveloping PDR. Most of the emission in the PDR regions of the map appears to coincide very well with our 37.7 micron continuum map indicating a PDR origin for the [SiII] in agreement with theoretical predictions. The [SiII] line emission is very clumpy in the PDR directly imaging the clump spectrum indirectly ascertained by examining the distribution and flux ratios of [CII] and [0I] far-IR fine structure line, and high J CO emission. We also detected very strong [SiII] line emission from the embedded BN-KL star formation region tracing the morphology and physical conditions of the high velocity shock from these very young stars.

Stacey, Gordon J.↗

CDF and PDF Comparison Between Humacao, Puerto Rico and Florida

The knowledge of the atmospherics phenomenon is an important part in the communication system. The principal factor that contributes to the attenuation in a Ka band communication system is the rain attenuation. We have four years of tropical region observations. The data in the tropical region was taken in Humacao, Puerto Rico. Previous data had been collected at various climate regions such as desserts, template area and sub-tropical regions. Figure 1 shows the ITU-R rain zone map for North America. Rain rates are important to the rain attenuation prediction models. The models that predict attenuation generally are of two different kinds. The first one is the regression models. By using a data set these models provide an idea of the observed attenuation and rain rates distribution in the present, past and future. The second kinds of models are physical models which use the probability density functions (PDF).

Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Rosana↗

Apex Reference Manual 3.0 Beta

Apex is a toolkit for constructing software that behaves intelligently and responsively in demanding task environments. Reflecting its origin at NASA where Apex continues to be developed, current applications include: a) Providing autonomous mission management and tactical control capabilities for unmanned aerial vehicles including an autonomous surveillance helicopter and a simulation prototype of an unmanned fixed-wing aircraft to be used for wildfire mapping; b) Simulating human air traffic controllers, pilots and astronauts to help predict how people might respond to changes in equipment or procedures; and c) Predicting the precise duration and sequence of routine human behaviors based on a human-computer interaction engineering technique called CPM-GOMS. Among Apex s components are a set of implemented reasoning services, such as those for reactive planning and temporal pattern recognition; a software architecture that embeds and integrates these services and allows additional reasoning elements to be added as extensions; a formal language for specifying agent knowledge; a simulation environment to facilitate prototyping and analysis; and Sherpa, a set of tools for visualizing autonomy logic and runtime behavior. In combination, these are meant to provide a flexible and usable framework for creating, testing, and deploying intelligent agent software. Overall, our goal in developing Apex is to lower economic barriers to developing intelligent software agents. New ideas about how to extend or modify the system are evaluated in terms of their impact in reducing the time, expertise, and inventiveness required to build and maintain applications. For example, potential enhancements to the AI reasoning capabilities in the system are reviewed not only for usefulness and distinctiveness, but also for their impact on the readability and general usability of Apex s behavior representation language (PDL) and on the transparency of resulting behavior. A second central part of our approach is to iteratively refine Apex based on lessons learned from as diverse a set of applications as possible. Many applications have been developed by users outside the core development team including engineers, researchers, and students. Usability is thus a central concern for every aspect of Apex visible to a user, including PDL, Sherpa, the Apex installation process, APIs, and user documentation. Apex users vary in their areas of expertise and in their familiarity with autonomy technology. Focusing on usability, a development philosophy summarized by the project motto "Usable Autonomy," has been important part of enabling diverse users to employ Apex successfully and to provide feedback needed to guide iterative, user-centered refinement.

Freed, Michael A.↗

The SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) Product

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission is being developed by NASA for launch in 2013 as one of four first-tier missions recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space in 2007. The primary science objectives of SMAP are to enhance understanding of land surface controls on the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to determine their linkages. Moreover, the high resolution soil moisture mapping provided by SMAP has practical applications in weather and seasonal climate prediction, agriculture, human health, drought and flood decision support. In this paper we describe the assimilation of SMAP observations for the generation of the planned SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. The SMAP mission makes simultaneous active (radar) and passive (radiometer) measurements in the 1.26-1.43 GHz range (L-band) from a sun-synchronous low-earth orbit. Measurements will be obtained across a 1000 km wide swath using conical scanning at a constant incidence angle (40 deg). The radar resolution varies from 1-3 km over the outer 70% of the swath to about 30 km near the center of the swath. The radiometer resolution is 40 km across the entire swath. The radiometer measurements will allow high-accuracy but coarse resolution (40 km) measurements. The radar measurements will add significantly higher resolution information. The radar is however very sensitive to surface roughness and vegetation structure. The combination of the two measurements allows optimal blending of the advantages of each instrument. SMAP directly observes only surface soil moisture (in the top 5 cm of the soil column). Several of the key applications targeted by SMAP, however, require knowledge of root zone soil moisture (approximately top 1 m of the soil column), which is not directly measured by SMAP. The foremost objective of the SMAP L4_SM product is to fill this gap and provide estimates of root zone soil moisture that are informed by and consistent with SMAP observations. Such estimates are obtained by merging SMAP observations with estimates from a land surface model in a soil moisture data assimilation system. The land surface model component of the assimilation system is driven with observations-based surface meteorological forcing data, including precipitation, which is the most important driver for soil moisture. The model also encapsulates knowledge of key land surface processes, including the vertical transfer of soil moisture between the surface and root zone reservoirs. Finally, the model interpolates and extrapolates SMAP observations in time and in space. The L4_SM product thus provides a comprehensive and consistent picture of land surface hydrological conditions based on SMAP observations and complementary information from a variety of sources. The assimilation algorithm considers the respective uncertainties of each component and yields a product that is superior to satellite or model data alone. Error estimates for the L4_SM product are generated as a by-product of the data assimilation system.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Assimilation of Smos Observations to Generate a Prototype SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture Product

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP; [1]) mission is being implemented by NASA for launch in October 2014. The primary science objectives of SMAP are to enhance understanding of land surface controls on the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to determine their linkages. Moreover, the high-resolution soil moisture mapping provided by SMAP has practical applications in weather and seasonal climate prediction, agriculture, human health, drought and flood decision support. The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS; [2]) mission was launched by ESA in November 2009 and has since been observing L-band (1.4 GHz) upwelling passive microwaves. In this paper we describe our use of SMOS brightness temperature observations to generate a prototype of the planned SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product [5].

Reichle, Rolf H.↗