Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictive analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

Modeling inclusive electron-nucleus scattering with Bayesian artificial neural networks

We introduce a Bayesian protocol based on artificial neural networks that is suitable for modeling inclusive electron-nucleus scattering on a variety of nuclear targets with quantified uncertainties. Unlike previous applications in the field, which directly parameterize the cross sections, our approach employs artificial neural networks to represent the longitudinal and transverse response functions. In contrast to cross sections, which depend on the incoming energy, scattering angle, and energy transfer, the response functions are determined solely by the energy and momentum transfer to the system, allowing the angular component to be treated analytically. We assess the accuracy and predictive power of our framework against the extensive data in the quasielastic inclusive electron-scattering database. Additionally, we present novel extractions of the longitudinal and transverse response functions and compare them with previous experimental analysis and nuclear ab-initio calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantifying Energetic and Entropic Pathways in Molecular Systems

When examining dynamics occurring at nonzero temperatures, both energy and entropy must be taken into account to describe activated barrier crossing events. Furthermore, good reaction coordinates need to be constructed to describe different metastable states and the transition mechanisms between them. Here we use a physics-based machine learning method called state predictive information bottleneck (SPIB) to find nonlinear reaction coordinates for three systems of varying complexity. SPIB is able to correctly predict an entropic bottleneck for an analytical flat-energy double-well system and identify the entropy- and energy-dominated pathways for an analytical four-well system. Lastly, for a simulation of benzoic acid permeation through a lipid bilayer, SPIB is able to discover the entropic and energetic barriers to the permeation process. Given these results, we thus establish that SPIB is a reasonable and robust method for finding the important entropy, energy, and enthalpy barriers in physical systems, which can then be used to enhance the understanding and sampling of different activated mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗

Cross slip of extended dislocations in face-centered cubic metals through phase-field modeling

Cross slip is a dislocation mechanism that significantly impacts the mechanical behavior of engineering alloys. Here, in this work, we advance a 3D phase-field dislocation dynamics (PFDD) mesoscale technique to simulate cross slip across a broad range of face-centered cubic (FCC) metals. The formulation incorporates elastic anisotropy, an FCC numerical grid, and a high-fidelity representation of the entire γ -surface from density functional theory for eight FCC metals and no adjustable parameters or rules. The relaxed core structures under zero stress for all metals are predicted to extend in plane. The analytical model for stacking fault width agrees well with the PFDD result under the assumption of elastic isotropy but overestimates it under elastic anisotropy, when the degree of anisotropy is large. The dynamic simulations are designed to elucidate the material parameters that influence the propensity for cross slip. Whether cross slip occurs under a non-Schmid stress or to bypass a hard obstacle, the critical stress to cross slip scales strongly with the anisotropic energy coefficient for a screw dislocation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tilted outer and inner structures in edge-on galaxies?

ABSTRACT Tilted and warped discs inside tilted dark matter haloes are predicted from numerical and semi-analytical studies. In this paper, we use deep imaging to demonstrate the likely existence of tilted outer structures in real galaxies. We consider two SB0 edge-on galaxies, NGC 4469 and NGC 4452, which exhibit apparent tilted outer discs with respect to the inner structure. In NGC 4469, this structure has a boxy shape, inclined by ΔPA ≈ 3° with respect to the inner disc, whereas NGC 4452 harbours a discy outer structure with ΔPA ≈ 6°. In spite of the different shapes, both structures have surface brightness profiles close to exponential and make a large contribution (∼30 per cent) to the total galaxy luminosity. In the case of NGC 4452, we propose that its tilted disc likely originates from a former fast tidal encounter (probably with IC 3381). For NGC 4469, a plausible explanation may also be galaxy harassment, which resulted in a tilted or even a tumbling dark matter halo. A less likely possibility is accretion of gas-rich satellites several Gyr ago. New deep observations may potentially reveal more such galaxies with tilted outer structures, especially in clusters. We also consider galaxies, mentioned in the literature, where a central component (a bar or a bulge) is tilted with respect to the stellar disc. According to our numerical simulations, one of the plausible explanations of such observed ‘tilts’ of the bulge/bar is a projection effect due to a not exactly edge-on orientation of the galaxy coupled with a skew angle of the triaxial bulge/bar.

Mosenkov, Aleksandr V.↗

A Spitzer survey of Deep Drilling Fields to be targeted by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will observe several Deep Drilling Fields (DDFs) to a greater depth and with a more rapid cadence than the main survey. In this paper, we describe the ‘DeepDrill’ survey, which used the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) to observe three of the four currently defined DDFs in two bands, centred on 3.6 and 4.5 μm. Furthermore, these observations expand the area that was covered by an earlier set of observations in these three fields by the Spitzer Extragalactic Representative Volume Survey (SERVS). The combined DeepDrill and SERVS data cover the footprints of the LSST DDFs in the Extended Chandra Deep Field–South (ECDFS) field, the ELAIS-S1 field (ES1), and the XMM-Large-Scale Structure Survey field (XMM-LSS). The observations reach an approximate 5σ point-source depth of 2 μJy (corresponding to an AB magnitude of 23.1; sufficient to detect a 10$^{11} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ galaxy out to z ≈ 5) in each of the two bands over a total area of $\approx 29\,$ deg2. The dual-band catalogues contain a total of 2.35 million sources. In this paper, we describe the observations and data products from the survey, and an overview of the properties of galaxies in the survey. We compare the source counts to predictions from the Shark semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. We also identify a population of sources with extremely red ([3.6]-[4.5] >1.2) colours which we show mostly consists of highly obscured active galactic nuclei.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neural network-based model of galaxy power spectrum: fast full-shape galaxy power spectrum analysis

ABSTRACT We present a neural network-based emulator for the galaxy redshift-space power spectrum that enables several orders of magnitude acceleration in the galaxy clustering parameter inference, while preserving 3$\sigma$ accuracy better than 0.5 per cent up to $k_{\mathrm{max}}$ = 0.25 $\, h\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ within Lambda-cold dark matter ($\Lambda$CDM) and around 0.5 per cent $w_0$–$w_a$CDM. Our surrogate model only emulates the galaxy bias-invariant terms of one-loop perturbation theory predictions, these terms are then combined analytically with galaxy bias terms, counter-terms, and stochastic terms in order to obtain the non-linear redshift-space galaxy power spectrum. This allows us to avoid any galaxy bias prescription in the training of the emulator, which makes it more flexible. Moreover, we include the redshift $z \in [0,1.4]$ in the training which further avoids the need for re-training the emulator. We showcase the performance of the emulator in recovering the cosmological parameters of $\Lambda$CDM by analysing the suite of 25 AbacusSummit simulations that mimic the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument luminous red galaxies at $z=0.5$ and 0.8, together as the emission line galaxies at $z=0.8$. We obtain similar performance in all cases, demonstrating the reliability of the emulator for any galaxy sample at any redshift in $0 \lt z \lt 1.4$. We will make our emulator public at github repository.

Trusov, Svyatoslav (ORCID:0000000224146720)↗

Twisted bilayer graphene. VI. An exact diagonalization study at nonzero integer filling

Using exact diagonalization, we research the projected Hamiltonian with the Coulomb interaction in the eight flat bands of first magic angle twisted bilayer graphene. Employing the U(4) [U(4) × U(4)] symmetries in the nonchiral (chiral) flat band limit, we reduced the Hilbert space to an extent that allows for study around ν = ±3,±2,±1 fillings. In the first chiral limit w 0 /w 1 = 0, where w 0 (w 1 ) is the A A (AB) stacking hopping, we find that the ground states at these fillings are extremely well-described by Slater determinants in a so-called Chern basis, and the exactly solvable charge ±1 excitations found in Bernevig et al. [Phys. Rev. B 103, 205415 (2021)] are the lowest charge excitations up to system sizes 8 × 8 (for restricted Hilbert space) in the chiral-flat limit. We also find that the flat metric condition (FMC) used by Bernevig et al. [Phys. Rev. B 103, 205411 (2021)], Song et al. [Phys. Rev. B 103, 205412 (2021)], Bernevig et al. [Phys. Rev. B 103, 205413 (2021)], Lian et al. [Phys. Rev. B 103, 205414 (2021)], and Bernevig et al. [Phys. Rev. B 103, 205415 (2021)] for obtaining a series of exact ground states and excitations holds in a large parameter space. For ν = -3, the ground state is the spin and valley polarized Chern insulator with ν C = ±1 at w 0 /w 1 ≲ 0.9 (0.3) with (without) FMC. At ν = -2, we can only numerically access the valley polarized sector, and we find a spin ferromagnetic phase when w 0 /w 1 ≳ 0.5 t where t ϵ [0,1] is the factor of rescaling of the actual TBG bandwidth, and a spin singlet phase otherwise, confirming the perturbative calculation [Lian. et al., Phys. Rev. B 103, 205414 (2021), Bultinck et al., Phys. Rev. X 10, 031034 (2020)]. The analytic FMC ground state is, however, predicted in the intervalley coherent sector which we cannot access [Lian et al., Phys. Rev. B 103, 205414 (2021), Bultinck et al., Phys. Rev. X 10, 031034 (2020)]. For ν = -3 with/without FMC, when w 0 /w 1 is large, the finite-size gap Δ to the neutral excitations vanishes, leading to phase transitions. Further analysis of the ground state momentum sectors at ν = -3 suggests a competition among (nematic) metal, momentum M M (π) stripe and K M -CDW orders at large w 0 /w 1 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Multiplicative Shot-Noise: A New Route to Stability of Plastic Networks

Fluctuations of synaptic weights, among many other physical, biological, and ecological quantities, are driven by coincident events of two “parent” processes. Here we propose a multiplicative shot-noise model that can capture the behaviors of a broad range of such natural phenomena, and analytically derive an approximation that accurately predicts its statistics. We apply our results to study the effects of a multiplicative synaptic plasticity rule that was recently extracted from measurements in physiological conditions. Using mean-field theory analysis and network simulations, we investigate how this rule shapes the connectivity and dynamics of recurrent spiking neural networks. The multiplicative plasticity rule is shown to support efficient learning of input stimuli, and it gives a stable, unimodal synaptic-weight distribution with a large fraction of strong synapses. The strong synapses remain stable over long times but do not “run away.” Our results suggest that the multiplicative shot-noise offers a new route to understand the tradeoff between flexibility and stability in neural circuits and other dynamic networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Generalized design principles for hydrodynamic electron transport in anisotropic metals

Interactions of charge carriers with lattice vibrations, or phonons, play a critical role in unconventional electronic transport of metals and semimetals. Recent observations of phonon-mediated collective electron flow in bulk semimetals, termed electron hydrodynamics, present new opportunities in the search for strong electron-electron interactions in high carrier density materials. Here we present the general transport signatures of such a second-order scattering mechanism, along with analytical limits at the Eliashberg level of theory. We study electronic transport, using ab initio calculations, in finite-size channels of semimetallic ZrSiS and TaAs 2 with and without topological band crossings, respectively. The order of magnitude separation between momentum-relaxing and momentum-conserving scattering length scales across a wide temperature range make both of them promising candidates for further experimental observation of electron hydrodynamics. More generally, our calculations suggest that the hydrodynamic transport regime does not, to first order, rely on the topological nature of the bands. Finally, we discuss general design principles guiding future search for hydrodynamic candidates, based on the analytical formulation and our ab initio predictions. Further, we find that systems with strong electron-phonon interactions, reduced electronic phase space, and suppressed phonon-phonon scattering at temperatures of interest are likely to feature hydrodynamic electron transport. We predict that layered and/or anisotropic semimetals composed of half-filled d shells and light group V/VI elements with lower crystal symmetry are promising candidates to observe hydrodynamic phenomena in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ascending Columns, WTG, and Convective Aggregation

Analytic solutions are derived for a convecting atmosphere with mean ascent using a zero-buoyancy bulk-plume approximation for moist convection. It has been suggested that such solutions should serve as a model for the relationship between humidity, instability, and precipitation in the tropics, but it is shown here that this interpretation is incompatible with the observed weak temperature gradient (WTG). Instead, the solutions can be used to understand the atmospheric state averaged over all tropical convecting regions. Further, using the analytic solutions in this way, they predict the changes in humidity, instability, and precipitation as a function of the size of the moist patch in a convectively aggregated state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaporation Induced Entrainment of Contaminants from Evaporating and Burning Liquids.

This interim report details model development, theory, and a literature review focusing on the evaporation induced entrainment (sub-boiling) of contaminated liquids. Entrainment from a variety of sources is the topic of DOE Handbook 3010, and this report deals more broadly with fire related airborne sources of contaminants in hazardous operations. Relatively few studies have examined sub-boiling behavior in the past, however, it can be a phenomenon that presents a fire related risk under hazardous operations. Molecular dynamics simulations are used to infer the gaseous evolution of coordinated complexes, and a model for a water/plutonium/nitrate system is deduced from the simulation results by evaluating the statistical trends of the results. Questions remain as to the chemical reactivity and longevity of entrained species. A generalized computer model capability and simple analytical model assumptions are developed for predicting the results of these and other (boiling and solid entrainment) scenarios. Verification related predictions using these models are illustrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical Investigation of Wall-Cooling Effect on Aero-Optical Distortions for Hypersonic Boundary Layer

Compressible wall-modeled large-eddy simulations of Mach 8 turbulent boundary-layer flows over a flat plate were carried out for the conditions of the hypersonic wind tunnel at Sandia National Laboratories. The simulations provide new insight into the effect of wall cooling on the aero-optical path distortions for hypersonic turbulent boundary-layer flows. Four different wall-to-recovery temperature ratios, 0.3, 0.48, 0.71, and 0.89, are considered. Despite the much lower grid resolution, the mean velocity, temperature, and resolved Reynolds stress profiles from the simulation for a temperature ratio of 0.48 are in good agreement with those from a reference direct numerical simulation. The normalized root-mean-square optical path difference obtained from the present simulations is compared with that from reference direct numerical simulations, Sandia experiments, as well as predictions obtained with a semi-analytical model by Notre Dame University. Here the present analysis focuses on the effect of wall cooling on the wall-normal density correlations, on key underlying assumptions of the aforementioned model such as the strong Reynolds analogy, and on the elevation angle effect on the optical path difference. Wall cooling is found to increase the velocity fluctuations and decrease the density fluctuations, resulting in an overall reduction of the normalized optical path distortion. Compared to the simulations, the basic strong Reynolds analogy overpredicts the temperature fluctuations for cooled walls. Also different from the strong Reynolds analogy, the velocity and temperature fluctuations are not perfectly anticorrelated. Finally, as the wall temperature is raised, the density correlation length, away from the wall but inside the boundary layer, increases significantly for beam paths tilted in the downstream direction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Understanding Isomeric Effects on Properties of Aviation Fuels via a Group Contribution Method: Preprint

The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids for process monitoring using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy with a liquid wheel sampling approach

This article presents an engineered sampling system that used a rotating wheel to form a thin liquid layer, permitting the use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for in situ, real-time elemental impurity quantification during liquid processing. The sampling approach was demonstrated on eight elements from across the periodic table (Na, Al, K, Ca, Ti, Sr, Mo, and Yb). Univariate and multivariate calibrations were presented for each element. The average value for percent root mean square errors of cross-validation for the multivariate models was 3.64%, highlighting the method's strong prediction accuracy. Additionally, the limits of detection for each analyte were estimated from their univariate models: Na = 0.0532, Al = 18.5, K = 0.105, Ca = 0.273, Ti = 67.7, Sr = 0.640, Mo = 22.4, and Yb = 22.9 μg mL –1 . Finally, a test in which multivariate models were used to monitor a liquid system for 80 min was performed to investigate the real-time monitoring capabilities of this liquid LIBS sampling approach. Rigorous measurements were performed to effectively predict the absence and concentrations of multiple analytes as they were spiked and diluted. This demonstration showed the feasibility of using LIBS for real-time liquid quantification models with estimated precision ≤ 8.1%. Finally, the limitations of this approach and potential future improvements are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Verification and Demonstration of One-Dimensional Freezing Model in SAM for Salt-Cooled Reactor Analysis Applications

This work presented the development and implementation of the one-dimensional freezing model in system analysis code, SAM, as well as code verification, and code demonstration during a postulated overcooling transient, for fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) system and safety analysis applications. The paper at first summarized the freezing model, finite element numerical method, and special numerical treatment for handling phase appearance/disappearance. Analytical solutions were derived for two cases (with and without solid walls) for code verifications purpose. As expected, numerical results predicted by the SAM code agreed very well with the analytical solution. A code demonstration was then performed on a postulated protected overcooling event transient of a generic reference PB-FHR design. The code was found to successfully predict salt freezing during such a postulated event. However, due to lack of salt freezing testing data, code validation has not been performed in this work, which will be pursued in later studies when such data becomes available.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Method for simultaneous characterization and expansion of reference libraries for small molecule identification

A variational autoencoder (VAE) has been developed to learn a continuous numerical, or latent, representation of molecular structure to expand reference libraries for small molecule identification. The VAE has been extended to include a chemical property decoder, trained as a multitask network, to shape the latent representation such that it assembles according to desired chemical properties. The approach is unique in its application to metabolomics and small molecule identification, focused on properties that are obtained from experimental measurements (m/z, CCS) paired with its training paradigm, which involves a cascade of transfer learning iterations. First, molecular representation is learned from a large dataset of structures with m/z labels. Next, in silico property values are used to continue training. Finally, the network is further refined by being trained with the experimental data. The trained network is used to predict chemical properties directly from structure and generate candidate structures with desired chemical properties. The network is extensible to other training data and molecular representations, and for use with other analytical platforms, for both chemical property and feature prediction as well as molecular structure generation.

Colby, Sean M.↗

The Universe at z > 10: predictions for JWST from the universemachine DR1

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0-15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 10 7 M⊙ and/or M 1500 < -17 out to at least z ~ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. Additionally, the faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 10 7 M⊙ or M 1500 > -17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M 1500 = -17 down to M 1500 = -12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ~ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗