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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Growth Dynamics and Yield Prediction of Sorghum Using High Temporal Resolution UAV Imagery Time Series and Machine Learning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) carrying multispectral cameras are increasingly being used for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of above-ground traits of crops to study genetic diversity, resource use efficiency and responses to abiotic or biotic stresses. There is significant unexplored potential for repeated data collection through a field season to reveal information on the rates of growth and provide predictions of the final yield. Generating such information early in the season would create opportunities for more efficient in-depth phenotyping and germplasm selection. This study tested the use of high-resolution time-series imagery (5 or 10 sampling dates) to understand the relationships between growth dynamics, temporal resolution and end-of-season above-ground biomass (AGB) in 869 diverse accessions of highly productive (mean AGB = 23.4 Mg/Ha), photoperiod sensitive sorghum. Canopy surface height (CSM), ground cover (GC), and five common spectral indices were considered as features of the crop phenotype. Spline curve fitting was used to integrate data from single flights into continuous time courses. Random Forest was used to predict end-of-season AGB from aerial imagery, and to identify the most informative variables driving predictions. Improved prediction of end-of-season AGB (RMSE reduction of 0.24 Mg/Ha) was achieved earlier in the growing season (10 to 20 days) by leveraging early- and mid-season measurement of the rate of change of geometric and spectral features. Early in the season, dynamic traits describing the rates of change of CSM and GC predicted end-of-season AGB best. Late in the season, CSM on a given date was the most influential predictor of end-of-season AGB. The power to predict end-of-season AGB was greatest at 50 days after planting, accounting for 63% of variance across this very diverse germplasm collection with modest error (RMSE 1.8 Mg/ha). End-of-season AGB could be predicted equally well when spline fitting was performed on data collected from five flights versus 10 flights over the growing season. This demonstrates a more valuable and efficient approach to using UAVs for HTP, while also proposing strategies to add further value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization

Reliable climate predictions across multiple timescales are increasingly critical as climate-related risks continue to rise. With the growing number and diversity of climate prediction systems, systematic intercomparison has become essential. Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation framework based on the PCMDI Metric Package to assess the performance of multiple decadal climate prediction systems. Unlike uninitialized simulations, initialized predictions exhibit bias and predictive skill that evolve with forecast lead time. To address this, we introduce (1) model-by-lead-time portrait plots, which efficiently summarize metrics of global temperature, precipitation, and Arctic/Antarctic sea-ice extent, and (2) an HTML-based interactive visualization platform that provides detailed regional and seasonal diagnostics of model bias, skill scores, and ensemble spread for each model and lead time. Comparisons with uninitialized simulations further quantify the relative impacts of initialization and external forcing on prediction skill. The proposed framework provides a scalable and transparent approach for multi-model climate prediction assessments and can be readily extended to a wide range of operational and research forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-range vehicle speed prediction using vehicle connectivity for enhanced energy efficiency of vehicles

An integrated speed prediction framework based on historical traffic data mining and real-time V2I communications for CAVs. The present framework provides multi-horizon speed predictions with different fidelity over short and long horizons. The present multi-horizon speed prediction is integrated with an economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the battery thermal management (BTM) of connected and automated electric vehicles (EVs) as a case study. The simulation results over real-world urban driving cycles confirm the enhanced prediction performance of the present data mining strategy over long prediction horizons. Despite the uncertainty in long-range CAV speed predictions, the vehicle level simulation results show that 14% and 19% energy savings can be accumulated sequentially through eco-driving and BTM optimization (eco-cooling), respectively, when compared with normal-driving and conventional BTM strategy.

Amini, Mohammad Reza↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combining pairwise structural similarity and deep learning interface contact prediction to estimate protein complex model accuracy in CASP15

Abstract Estimating the accuracy of quaternary structural models of protein complexes and assemblies (EMA) is important for predicting quaternary structures and applying them to studying protein function and interaction. The pairwise similarity between structural models is proven useful for estimating the quality of protein tertiary structural models, but it has been rarely applied to predicting the quality of quaternary structural models. Moreover, the pairwise similarity approach often fails when many structural models are of low quality and similar to each other. To address the gap, we developed a hybrid method (MULTICOM_qa) combining a pairwise similarity score (PSS) and an interface contact probability score (ICPS) based on the deep learning inter‐chain contact prediction for estimating protein complex model accuracy. It blindly participated in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022 and performed very well in estimating the global structure accuracy of assembly models. The average per‐target correlation coefficient between the model quality scores predicted by MULTICOM_qa and the true quality scores of the models of CASP15 assembly targets is 0.66. The average per‐target ranking loss in using the predicted quality scores to rank the models is 0.14. It was able to select good models for most targets. Moreover, several key factors (i.e., target difficulty, model sampling difficulty, skewness of model quality, and similarity between good/bad models) for EMA are identified and analyzed. The results demonstrate that combining the multi‐model method (PSS) with the complementary single‐model method (ICPS) is a promising approach to EMA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feature engineering for machine learning enabled early prediction of battery lifetime

Accurate battery lifetime estimates enable accelerated design of novel battery materials and determination of optimal use protocols for longevity in deployments. Unfortunately, traditional battery testing may take years to reach thousands of cycles. Recent studies have shown that machine learning (ML) tools can predict lithium-ion battery lifetimes from 100 or fewer preliminary cycles, representing only a few weeks of cycling. Until now, conclusions about the efficacy and broad applicability of these predictions across a variety of cathode chemistries have been limited by available experimental information. In this work, we leverage a battery cycling dataset representing six cathode chemistries (NMC111, NMC532, NMC622, NMC811, HE5050, and 5Vspinel), multiple electrolyte/anode compositions, and 300 total carefully prepared pouch batteries to explore feature selection and battery chemistry's role in ML battery lifetime predictions. Here, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 78 cycles in prediction was seen for a chemistry-spanning test set from 100 preliminary cycles. Furthermore, an MAE of 103 cycles was seen when using only the first cycle. This study represents an in-depth investigation of strategies for feature selection for battery lifetime prediction, ML models' generalization across multiple battery chemistries, and predictions beyond the training set in the chemical space.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Foaming prediction in pure liquids from dimensionless numbers inspired by the theory of fluid behavior for drops

Foaming prediction is critical for selecting materials and designing processes in industries such as bioprocessing and gas processing. Existing models lack the generality needed for a wide range of materials and overlook the foaming behavior in pure liquids. Here, this work presents a novel method for predicting foaming in pure liquids based on their density, surface tension, and viscosity, using Reynolds ( Re ) and Ohnesorge ( Oh ) numbers. A foaming prediction map, leveraging the theory of fluid drop behavior, was developed by plotting these numbers. This map delineates distinct non-foaming and foaming regions, functioning as a binary classifier for foaming predictions. The map was fitted and validated through shake test experiments on 46 liquids, demonstrating reliable predictions, except for a specific region characterized by small Oh and large Re numbers. This region corresponded to relatively low foam stability and high turbulence, making foaming predictions challenging for liquids in this category.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

RNA target highlights in CASP15 : Evaluation of predicted models by structure providers

Abstract The first RNA category of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Structure Prediction competition was only made possible because of the scientists who provided experimental structures to challenge the predictors. In this article, these scientists offer a unique and valuable analysis of both the successes and areas for improvement in the predicted models. All 10 RNA‐only targets yielded predictions topologically similar to experimentally determined structures. For one target, experimentalists were able to phase their x‐ray diffraction data by molecular replacement, showing a potential application of structure predictions for RNA structural biologists. Recommended areas for improvement include: enhancing the accuracy in local interaction predictions and increased consideration of the experimental conditions such as multimerization, structure determination method, and time along folding pathways. The prediction of RNA–protein complexes remains the most significant challenge. Finally, given the intrinsic flexibility of many RNAs, we propose the consideration of ensemble models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relativistic effects for the superheavy reaction Og + 2Ts 2 → OgTs 4 (T d or D 4h ): dramatic relativistic effects for atomization energy of superheavy Oganesson tetratennesside OgTs 4 and prediction of the existence of tetrahedral OgTs 4

In this work, our all-electron fully relativistic Dirac-Fock (DF) and nonrelativistic (NR) Hartree-Fock SCF mol. calculations for the superheavy tetrahedral (Td) oganesson tetratennesside OgTs 4 predict atomization energies (A e ) of 7.45 and -11.21 eV, resp. Our DF and NR calculations, however for the square planar (D 4h ) OgTs 4 predict atomization energies (A e ) of 6.34 and -8.56 eV, resp. There are dramatic relativistic effects for the atomization energies of T2 d and D 4h OgTs 4 of ~ 18.65 eV and ~ 14.90 eV, resp. Whereas our DF calculations predict the Td OgTs 4 to be more stable than the D 4h OgTs 4 by ~ 1.10 eV, our NR calculations predict the D 4h OgTs 4 to be more stable than the T d OgTs 4 by ~ 2.65 eV. Our NR calculations predict both the T d and D 4h OgTs 4 to be unbound by 11.21 and 8.56 eV, resp. However, our relativistic DF calculations predict both the T d and D 4h OgTs 4 to be bound by 7.45 and 6.34 eV, resp., and so the relativistic treatment is mandatory for bonding and binding in the pentat. superheavy system with 586 electrons involving the two heaviest SHE Ts and Og.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation prediction of climate models with nudging approach for better initialization of Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal wave train and land surface conditions

Abstract Reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction is highly desired due to the great socioeconomical implications, yet it remains one of the most challenging topics in the weather/climate prediction research area. As part of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P) project of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program, twenty-one climate models follow the LS4P protocol to quantify the impact of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) springtime anomalies on the global summertime precipitation. We find that nudging towards reanalysis winds is crucial for climate models to generate atmosphere and land surface initial conditions close to observations, which is necessary for meaningful S2S applications. Simulations with nudged initial conditions can better capture the summer precipitation responses to the imposed TP LST/SUBT spring anomalies at hotspot regions all over the world. Further analyses show that the enhanced S2S prediction skill is largely attributable to the substantially improved initialization of the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train pattern in the atmosphere. This study highlights the important role that initial condition plays in the S2S prediction and suggests that data assimilation technique (e.g., nudging) should be adopted to initialize climate models to improve their S2S prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative assessment of environmental phenomena on maximum pit size predictions in marine environments

Maximum pit sizes were predicted for dilute and concentrated NaCl and MgCl 2 solutions as well as sea-salt brine solutions corresponding to 40% relative humidity (RH) (MgCl 2 -rich) and 76% RH (NaCl-rich) at 25 °C. A quantitative method was developed to capture the effects of various cathode evolution phenomena including precipitation and dehydration reactions. Additionally, the sensitivity of the model to input parameters was explored. Despite one's intuition, the highest chloride concentration (roughly 10.3 M Cl – ) did not produce the largest predicted pit size as the ohmic drop was more severe in concentrated MgCl 2 solutions. Therefore, the largest predicted pits were calculated for saturated NaCl (roughly 5 M Cl – ). Next, it was determined that pit size predictions are most sensitive to model input parameters for concentrated brines. However, when the effects of cathodic reactions on brine chemistry are considered, the sensitivity to input parameters is decreased. Although there was not one main input parameter that influenced pit size predictions, two main categories were identified. Under similar chloride concentrations (similar RH), the water layer thickness (WL), and pit stability product, (i · x) sf , are the most influential factors. When varying chloride concentrations (RH), changes in WL, the brine specific cathodic kinetics on the external surface (captured in the equivalent current density (i eq )), and conductivity (k o ) are the most influential parameters. Finally, it was noted that dehydration reactions coupled with precipitation in the cathode will have the largest effect on predicted pit size, and cause the most significant inhibition of corrosion damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

An accelerated framework for predicting creep rupture lifetimes in engineering alloys

Confidently predicting high-temperature deformation, including creep and creep rupture, is paramount for the design and commercialization of candidate materials for advanced nuclear energy systems. To accelerate creep quantification, we introduce a framework that enables rapid, cost-effective, and reliable prediction of creep rupture lifetimes, minimizing reliance on time-intensive bulk creep testing. Unlike conventional creep analysis, which requires extensive time and resources, our method leverages a maximum of four short-term bulk creep tests as training data for prediction. This framework combines high-throughput nanoindentation up to 700 °C with these targeted bulk tests to inform our creep rupture model in order to predict rupture lifetimes. The strong agreement between our predictions and conventional experimental data demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach for accelerated creep analysis and lifetime prediction of structural components in high-temperature applications. Our multi-pronged approach motivates further integration of computational tools and advanced instrumentation to establish a universal framework for understanding high-temperature material responses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Device Parameters for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells from Electronic Structure Calculations to Reproduce Experiment.

Given that improvements to the power-conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have slowed in recent years, a means to accurately predict the device parameters yielded by trial dyes in silico, without having to synthesize them, would be extremely valuable to speed up the design process. Currently, the best-performing methods of calculating device parameters rely on a set of experimentally determined kinetic coefficients. In practice, it is very difficult to measure these kinetic parameters accurately, limiting the overall accuracy of such predictive methods. This work proposes a model to obtain key parameters such as J(SC), V-OC, and PCE using only the results from density functional theory (DFT) and time-dependent DFT calculations, noting that rates of electron-transfer steps are ultimately linked to the electronic structure of the dye center dot center dot center dot TiO2 working electrode. Six organic DSSC dyes from dissimilar chemical classes (L0, L1, L2, WS-2, WS-92, and C281) were chosen to demonstrate the power of this approach. Their a priori known experimentally determined device performance metrics served to validate our predictions. The greatest absolute error in our predicted PCE values was 0.36% relative to the experiment, while the greatest fractional error was 0.042. This indicates that the proposed model offers a dramatic improvement on previous predictive methods for DSSC device parameters, both in accuracy and in consistency. Moreover, such a predictive model has great potential to be applied to other photovoltaic applications, further enabling the design of novel, highly efficient photoactive materials.

density functional theory↗
DOE OSTI2023

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗