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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven prediction of geometry- and toolpath sequence-dependent intra-layer process conditions variations in laser powder bed fusion

Geometrical features and toolpath sequence are two important factors that cause process condition variations, such as variations in the meltpool temperature or meltpool size, that might lead to undesired material properties in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Due to the high dynamics and complex physics of the LPBF process, it is difficult to predict variations in process conditions with simulations alone. Advances in measurement technology and computational technologies open up new possibilities for smart manufacturing. In this paper, a data-driven method to predict intra-layer variations in the processing conditions that source from the toolpath sequence and part geometry is presented. The approach is demonstrated using two-color on-axis pyrometer measurements. Three demonstration cases are presented in which it is demonstrated (1) how the trained predictive model can be used as a filter to ease the interpretation of process variations and discover patterns related to toolpath and part geometry, and (2) how to generate predictions that can be used for feedforward control, i.e., for adjusting laser power or scanning speed along the toolpath using a meltpool temperature prediction model generated based on on-axis measurements. Results show that the developed prediction model is able to meaningfully predict process variations resulted from toolpath sequence and geometry. Predictions are aligned with the results from the related work of others and for the case of 180° laser path turnarounds in our high-speed X-ray imaging experiments. In conclusion, the potential issues related to the current maturity status of the process and measuring equipment that could in practice affect the performance of the proposed solutions are also discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis of TCR and TCR-pMHC Complex Structure Prediction Tools

The rapid development of computational approaches for predicting the structures of T cell receptors (TCRs) and TCR-peptide-major histocompatibility (TCR-pMHC) complexes, accelerated by AI breakthroughs such as AlphaFold, has made it feasible to calculate these structures with increasing accuracy. Although these tools show great potential, their relative accuracy and limitations remain unclear due to the lack of standardized benchmarks. Here, we systematically evaluate seven tools for predicting isolated TCR structures together with six tools for predicting TCR-pMHC complex structures. The methods include homology-based approaches, general prediction tools using AlphaFold, TCR-specific tools derived from AlphaFold2, and the newly developed tFold-TCR model. The evaluation uses a post-training data set comprising 40 αβ TCRs and 27 TCR-pMHC complexes (21 Class I and 6 Class II). Model accuracy is assessed at global, local, and interface levels using a variety of metrics. We find that each tool offers distinct advantages in various aspects of its predictions. AlphaFold2, AlphaFold3, and tFold-TCR excel in overall accuracy of TCR structure prediction, and TCRmodel2 and AlphaFold2 perform well in overall accuracy of TCR-pMHC structure prediction. However, TCR-specific tools derived from AlphaFold2 show lower accuracy in the framework region than both homology-based methods and general-purpose tools such as AlphaFold, and challenges remain for all in modeling CDR3 loops, docking orientations, TCR-peptide interfaces, and Class II MHC-peptide interfaces. Furthermore, these findings will guide researchers in selecting appropriate tools, emphasize the importance of using multiple evaluation metrics to assess model performance, and offer suggestions for improving TCR and TCR-pMHC structure prediction tools.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Putting AlphaFold models to work with phenix.process_predicted_model and ISOLDE

AlphaFold has recently become an important tool in providing models for experimental structure determination by X-ray crystallography and cryo-EM. Large parts of the predicted models typically approach the accuracy of experimentally determined structures, although there are frequently local errors and errors in the relative orientations of domains. Importantly, residues in the model of a protein predicted by AlphaFold are tagged with a predicted local distance difference test score, informing users about which regions of the structure are predicted with less confidence. AlphaFold also produces a predicted aligned error matrix indicating its confidence in the relative positions of each pair of residues in the predicted model. The phenix.process_predicted_model tool downweights or removes low-confidence residues and can break a model into confidently predicted domains in preparation for molecular replacement or cryo-EM docking. These confidence metrics are further used in ISOLDE to weight torsion and atom–atom distance restraints, allowing the complete AlphaFold model to be interactively rearranged to match the docked fragments and reducing the need for the rebuilding of connecting regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biomass yield improvement in switchgrass through genomic prediction of flowering time

The seasonal timing of the transition from vegetative to reproductive growth has a major impact on biomass accumulation in switchgrass. Late-flowering switchgrass cultivars produce greater biomass, a critical trait for sustainable bioenergy production. Genomic prediction (GP) may allow rapid selection of late-flowering individuals with reduced time and expense for field evaluations. To evaluate GP, two flowering time traits (heading date and anthesis date) were collected on 1532 genotypes from four breeding populations: Midwest, Gulf, Atlantic, and Hybrid. These were sequenced using genotype-by-sequencing (530,792 single-nucleotide polymorphisms). Predictive ability of single-trait and multi-trait models were evaluated by cross-validation, by prediction of a progeny trial (n = 122), and through prediction of yield performance in a parallel experiment (n = 52). Predictive ability was not improved by sharing information among breeding groups. Overall, multi-trait models provided an advantage during cross-validation, but a smaller advantage during progeny prediction. Within populations, GP resulted in lower per-cycle progress than previously reported field evaluations (3.1 vs. 5.0 day –1 cycle –1 ). However, GP cycles are potentially much faster than field evaluations. When directly predicting biomass yield, the Hybrid training population had a predictive ability of 0.54–0.63. This reinforces the strong linkage between biomass yields in swards and flowering time. Furthermore, these results highlight the value of GP for rapid yield improvement in switchgrass, particularly in a breeding program designed to share information between biomass yield trials and low-cost flowering time evaluations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Trait Regressor Stacking Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy of Sorghum Grain Composition

Genomic prediction has enabled plant breeders to estimate breeding values of unobserved genotypes and environments. The use of genomic prediction will be extremely valuable for compositional traits for which phenotyping is labor-intensive and destructive for most accurate results. We studied the potential of Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking (BMORS) model in improving prediction performance over single trait single environment (STSE) models using a grain sorghum diversity panel (GSDP) and a biparental recombinant inbred lines (RILs) population. A total of five highly correlated grain composition traits—amylose, fat, gross energy, protein and starch, with genomic heritability ranging from 0.24 to 0.59 in the GSDP and 0.69 to 0.83 in the RILs were studied. Average prediction accuracies from the STSE model were within a range of 0.4 to 0.6 for all traits across both populations except amylose (0.25) in the GSDP. Prediction accuracy for BMORS increased by 41% and 32% on average over STSE in the GSDP and RILs, respectively. Prediction of whole environments by training with remaining environments in BMORS resulted in moderate to high prediction accuracy. Our results show regression stacking methods such as BMORS have potential to accurately predict unobserved individuals and environments, and implementation of such models can accelerate genetic gain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗
NASA NTRS2014

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters.

orbit prediction↗
NASA NTRS2016

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pragmatic Stress Prediction on Additively Manufactured Coupons

Prediction of residual stresses from process parameters for additively manufactured large metal parts is computationally expensive. NASA is currently developing meter-scale parts with direct energy deposition. Practically, the predictive computational methods need to efficiently scale-up to meter-scale parts. Coupled thermal-mechanical multi-physics simulations have been developed with the pragmatic method using ABAQUS, COMSOL Multiphysics, ALE3D software. The residual stresses are a result of the manufacturing process which creates thermal cycling of the build layers. The pragmatic method uses lumped thermal layers for stress predictions to reduce computational costs. The stress predictions as well as deformations of the different codes are compared with each other and with ANSYS Additive using identical material models, boundary and initial conditions. The codes were used to simulate three different geometries: a thin wall, hollow cylinder and twin-cantilever part. The coupon parts were then manufactured with Inconel-625. The residual stresses in these parts were measured using X-ray diffraction as well as neutron beam diffraction at NIST. The stress measurements for the two technologies are compared. The pragmatic stress prediction method enabled predictions of the multi-centimeter scale parts using desktop computer workstations in only a few hours for each coupon. The results of the simulated stress predictions compared favorably with the measured stresses even though thermally lumped layers were employed. Finally, a two-meter scale nozzle was simulated using ANSYS Additive. The simulations were used to examine the build orientation trade-space with respect to resulting geometric deformation. The predicted deformations were compared to measurements of an actual subscale part manufactured with direct energy deposition.

Additive Manufacturing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low-load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the bridge sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Ensemble Investigation of the Causes for Regional Air-Quality Model Critical Load Exceedances Prediction Variability in European and North American Domains Using Diagnostics From Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative

We summarize tentative findings from multi air quality model ensembles for the years 2009 and 2010 in Europe (EU), and 2010 and 2016 in North America (NA), under AQMEII-4. The model predictions of sulphur and nitrogen deposition were used to estimate exceedances of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication, to show the extent to which the ensemble members agree in the magnitude and the trend of ecologically meaningful impacts. Model exceedance variability was analyzed using AQMEII-4 diagnostics. Evaluation against concentration and wet deposition observations, coupled with these diagnostics, identified specific process representations as the causes for variability between model predictions and for reduced model performance. All models predicted reductions in ecosystem acidification impacts in North America between the years 2010 and 2016, in accord with SO2 emissions reduction legislation which started in 2010 (SO2 SIP) However, all models in EU and NA domains had net negative biases for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen relative to observations. The wet S deposition average mean bias for the NA ensemble was -0.17 eq ha-1 d-1, and for the EU ensemble -1.15 eq ha-1 d-1. The NA daily wet deposition average mean bias for NH4+ was -0.37 eq ha-1d-1; EU -1.19 eq ha-1 d-1. The daily NA wet NO3- deposition average mean bias was -0.24 eq ha-1d-1; EU -0.69 eq ha-1 d-1. The members of the ensemble diverged (factor of 10) in their North American predictions for Ndep and consequently their eutrophication exceedances. The models with the highest eutrophication predictions also predicted the highest levels of gas-phase ammonia dry deposition (standard deviation of ammonia dry deposition flux across ensemble members was larger than the ensemble average). These models also had negative biases of predicted ammonia concentrations; average mean biases of -0.63 (satellite NH3) and -0.85 ppbv (surface NH3) compared to ensemble averages of -0.30 and -0.34 ppbv. Diagnostics showed that these differences resulted from the manner in which bidirectional ammonia fluxes were parameterized within these models. The second largest source of NA eutrophication prediction variability were models with positive biases in particulate ammonium and nitrate concentrations, and higher particle nitrogen deposition levels ( particle ammonium concentration bias +0.35 ug m-3; ensemble bias +0.15 ug m-3). We believe two factors may have led to these latter overestimates: higher levels of fine mode particle nitrate formation compared to other models (due to the use of an inorganic heterogeneous chemistry algorithm which did not take base cation chemistry into account), and updates to particle dry deposition velocities carried out in the absence of concurrent updates to wet scavenging algorithms. The relative importance of dry gas, dry particulate, and wet deposition towards total sulphur and nitrogen deposition totals differed between EU and North American domains, though all models had negative biases in wet deposition as noted above. Parallel and subsequent work suggests that multiphase hydrometeor scavenging may improve model wet deposition performance. An increased research focus is recommended for four model processes: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging, ammonia bidirectional fluxes, base cation chemistry and emissions, and particle dry deposition.

regional air-quality model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Refined Predictions Compared with the Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics and Aircraft System Noise Flight Research Test Data

In a collaboration between NASA and The Boeing Company, the Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics and Aircraft System Noise Flight Research Test was executed by the Boeing ecoDemonstrator Program in 2020 with an Etihad Airways Boeing 787-10 aircraft. This ambitious flight research successfully accomplished many objectives and constitutes the most comprehensive and highest quality acoustic flight data available to NASA for a modern commercial subsonic transport aircraft. One purpose of these data is to be the measure of accuracy for the aircraft system noise prediction capabilities of NASA. This research reviews the impact of the major improvements in prediction methods implemented up to this point and tested in the Research version of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program. The improvements have been to the prediction of jet source and jet-flap interaction, to both fan broadband and tone source prediction, and to the prediction of propulsion airframe aeroacoustic scattering effects. In general, over the engine power range, comparisons between prediction and flight data are within 2 EPNdB including for the intentional sideline-to-sideline asymmetries as implemented in the flight test by flying the aircraft with only one engine at power. Considerable progress has been shown here in the continuing effort to advance the fidelity of NASA aircraft noise prediction capabilities for subsonic aircraft flight acoustics, modern transport aircraft and future aircraft concepts.

aircraft system noise prediction↗