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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. 2. Quantifying the Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification of groundwater (GW) aquifer parameters is critical for efficient management and sustainable extraction of GW resources. These uncertainties are introduced by the data, model, and prior information on the parameters. We develop a Bayesian inversion framework that uses Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) surface deformation data to infer the laterally heterogeneous permeability of a transient linear poroelastic model of a confined GW aquifer. The Bayesian solution of this inverse problem takes the form of a posterior probability density of the permeability. Exploring this posterior using classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally prohibitive due to the large dimension of the discretized permeability field and the expense of solving the poroelastic forward problem. However, in many partial differential equation (PDE)-based Bayesian inversion problems, the data are only informative in a few directions in parameter space. For the poroelasticity problem, we prove this property theoretically for a one-dimensional problem and demonstrate it numerically for a three-dimensional aquifer model. Here we design a generalized preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (gpCN) MCMC method that exploits this intrinsic low dimensionality by using a low-rank-based Laplace approximation of the posterior as a proposal, which we build scalably. The feasibility of our approach is demonstrated through a real GW aquifer test in Nevada. The inherently two-dimensional nature of InSAR surface deformation data informs a sufficient number of modes of the permeability field to allow detection of major structures within the aquifer, significantly reducing the uncertainty in the pressure and the displacement quantities of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Applying Magnetic Curvature to MMS Data to Identify Thin Current Sheets Relative to Tail Reconnection

Thin current sheets (TCSs) have been postulated to be a necessary precondition for reconnection onset. Magnetic reconnection X-lines in the magnetotail have been observed to be more common duskward of midnight. We take advantage of the MMS tetrahedral formation during the 2017–2020 MMS tail seasons to calculate the thickness of the cross-tail neutral sheet relative to ion gyroradius. While a similar technique was applied to Cluster data, current sheet thickness over a broader range of radial distances has not been robustly explored before this study. We compare our analysis to recent theories regarding mechanisms of tail current sheet thinning and to recent simulations. We find MMS spent more than twice as long in ion-scale TCSs in the pre-midnight sector than post-midnight, despite nearly even plasma sheet dwell time. The dawn-dusk asymmetry in the distribution of Ion Diffusion Regions, as previously reported in relation to regions of TCSs, is also analyzed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Shallow Ice Core Measurements to Evaluate and Constrain 1980–1990 Global Reanalyses of Ice Sheet Precipitation Rates

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) projections by Earth System Models (ESMs) depend on ice sheet surface mass balances. Accurate, global atmosphere reanalyses would be ideal for providing equilibrated ice sheet model initial conditions in fully coupled ESM simulations. Here we present the first evaluation of 1980–1990 global reanalysis precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica that uses independent observations of net accumulation rates derived from shallow ice cores. Precipitation distributions from both the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast's Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA‐2) are highly correlated with contemporaneous co‐located net accumulation rates from Greenland ( r 2 > 0.95) and West Antarctica ( r 2 > 0.7). Three other commonly used reanalyses (WFDE5, CRUNCEP, and GSWP3) exhibit significantly weaker correlations on one or both ice sheets. Our findings imply that ESMs should use ERA5 or MERRA‐2 in data‐forced simulations to validate ice sheet model dynamics and precondition firn for SLR projections.

Schneider, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Flow in Fracture Networks With Quantum Algorithms

Uncertainty quantification plays a crucial role in the modeling of subsurface flow. For instance, uncertainties in the properties of geologic fracture networks significantly impact flow, requiring numerous simulations to accurately estimate quantities of interest. However, each simulation is computationally expensive because it requires solving a large linear system to capture features that involve both small and large fractures. An example is in percolation, where the interaction of many small fractures (which cumulatively can have a large surface area) with the rock matrix must be modeled precisely. Quantum computing is an emerging tool with the potential to address this issue. Quantum algorithms offer a significant speedup in solving linear systems, achieving efficiencies that are challenging to match with classical approaches. These classical approaches include direct solvers, such as LU decomposition, and iterative methods, notably preconditioned conjugate gradient, commonly used in subsurface modeling to solve large sparse systems. However, applying quantum algorithms to geologic fracture flow requires careful attention to algorithmic and problem-specific constraints to fully realize this quantum advantage. In this work we describe a quantum algorithm for generalized Monte Carlo applications with a quadratic speedup over the classical approaches which can be combined with the quantum speedup, currently under investigation, for solving quantum linear systems for subsurface flow. We show that for quantum algorithms the computational cost of estimating a quantity of interest for a statistical ensemble of networks is roughly the same as that of a single realization, essentially implying that one can get uncertainty quantification for free.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Durability Research Is Pivotal for Perovskite Photovoltaics

Metal halide perovskite solar cells have shown promising power conversion efficiencies, but commercialization requires that decent durability is also demonstrated. Under normal operation, solar cells are subject to a complex combination of stressors, such as visible light, ultraviolet light, heat, humidity, mechanical stress and electric potential, which complicates the understanding of failure mechanisms. Existing stress tests do not act as a time machine. In new materials systems such as perovskite photovoltaics, the tests have no known relationship to field service. In this Perspective we recommend following a durability learning cycle that interleaves photovoltaic module engineering with field testing; accelerated testing; and preconditioning and performance engineering. We advocate for field testing to demonstrate real-world performance and identify field-relevant failure modes, and urge the community to develop accelerated and qualification tests that account for device metastability, variations in material composition and different/various processing methods. In conclusion, these practices are more difficult, but more important, than the simple pursuit of higher initial efficiencies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum algorithms for geologic fracture networks

Abstract Solving large systems of equations is a challenge for modeling natural phenomena, such as simulating subsurface flow. To avoid systems that are intractable on current computers, it is often necessary to neglect information at small scales, an approach known as coarse-graining. For many practical applications, such as flow in porous, homogenous materials, coarse-graining offers a sufficiently-accurate approximation of the solution. Unfortunately, fractured systems cannot be accurately coarse-grained, as critical network topology exists at the smallest scales, including topology that can push the network across a percolation threshold. Therefore, new techniques are necessary to accurately model important fracture systems. Quantum algorithms for solving linear systems offer a theoretically-exponential improvement over their classical counterparts, and in this work we introduce two quantum algorithms for fractured flow. The first algorithm, designed for future quantum computers which operate without error, has enormous potential, but we demonstrate that current hardware is too noisy for adequate performance. The second algorithm, designed to be noise resilient, already performs well for problems of small to medium size (order 10–1000 nodes), which we demonstrate experimentally and explain theoretically. We expect further improvements by leveraging quantum error mitigation and preconditioning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification using a Gaussian process prior

We propose a complete framework for Bayesian image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification based on a Gaussian process prior (GPP) to overcome limitations of maximum likelihood expectation maximization (ML-EM) image reconstruction algorithm. The prior distribution is constructed with a zero-mean Gaussian process (GP) with a choice of a covariance function, and a link function is used to map the Gaussian process to an image. Unlike many other maximum a posteriori approaches, our method offers highly interpretable hyperparamters that are selected automatically with the empirical Bayes method. Furthermore, the GP covariance function can be modified to incorporate a priori structural priors, enabling multi-modality imaging or contextual data fusion. Lastly, we illustrate that our approach lends itself to Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, such as the preconditioned Crank–Nicolson method and the Laplace approximation. The proposed framework is general and can be employed in most radiation image reconstruction problems, and we demonstrate it with simulated free-moving single detector radiation source imaging scenarios. We compare the reconstruction results from GPP and ML-EM, and show that the proposed method can significantly improve the image quality over ML-EM, all the while providing greater understanding of the source distribution via the uncertainty quantification capability. Furthermore, significant improvement of the image quality by incorporating a structural prior is illustrated.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A physically interpretable precursor framework for sub-seasonal prediction of Northern Hemisphere flash flourishing

Flash flourishing describes rapid vegetation increases that can quickly reshape land–atmosphere exchanges and impacts on ecosystem, yet its large-scale precursors, circulation context, and sub-seasonal predictability remain poorly understood. Here, we identified onset-stage circulation regimes across northern extratropical latitudes (NEL; >30°N) using 200 and 1000 hPa geopotential height, and examined their regional expressions over eastern Asia, western North America, and Europe. Flash flourishing onset in East Asian was associated with a baroclinic circulation regime and was preceded by a North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) precursor at a four-pentad lead. In contrast, onset in western North American and European preferentially occurred under barotropic regimes, preconditioned by Great Plains soil moisture at three-pentad lead and North Atlantic SST at a four-pentad lead, respectively. Ridge regression forecasts revealed regime-dependent sub-seasonal predictability, with mean out-of-sample R 2 exceeding 0.3 up to lead times of two pentads in East Asia, three pentads in western North America, and four pentads in Europe. Together, these findings established a mechanistic and regionally specific framework for anticipating rapid vegetation greening at sub-seasonal timescales.

Kong, Xiangxu [Nanjing Univ. of Information Scienc↗
DOE OSTI2023

From BEYONDPLANCK to COSMOGLOBE: Preliminary WMAP Q -band analysis

We present the first application of the COSMOGLOBE analysis framework by analyzing nine-year WMAP time-ordered observations that uses similar machinery to that of BEYONDPLANCK for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI). We analyzed only the Q-band (41 GHz) data and report on the low-level analysis process based on uncalibrated time-ordered data to calibrated maps. Most of the existing BEYONDPLANCK pipeline may be reused for WMAP analysis with minimal changes to the existing codebase. The main modification is the implementation of the same preconditioned biconjugate gradient mapmaker used by the WMAP team. Producing a single WMAP Q1-band sample requires 22 CPU-hrs, which is slightly more than the cost of a Planck 44 GHz sample of 17 CPU-hrs; this demonstrates that a full end-to-end Bayesian processing of the WMAP data is computationally feasible. In general, our recovered maps are very similar to the maps released by the WMAP team, although with two notable differences. In terms of temperature, we find a ~2 μK quadrupole difference that most likely is caused by different gain modeling, while in polarization we find a distinct 2.5 μK signal that has been previously referred to as poorly measured modes by the WMAP team. In the COSMOGLOBE processing, this pattern arises from temperature-to-polarization leakage from the coupling between the CMB Solar dipole, transmission imbalance, and sidelobes. No traces of this pattern are found in either the frequency map or TOD residual map, suggesting that the current processing has succeeded in modeling these poorly measured modes within the assumed parametric model by using Planck information to break the sky-synchronous degeneracies inherent in the WMAP scanning strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics using a Krylov subspace approximation

It is shown how the electronic equations of motion in extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulations can be integrated using low-rank approximations of the inverse Jacobian kernel. This kernel determines the metric tensor in the harmonic oscillator extension of the Lagrangian that drives the evolution of the electronic degrees of freedom. The proposed kernel approximation is derived from a pseudoinverse of a low-rank estimate of the Jacobian, which is expressed in terms of a generalized set of directional derivatives with directions that are given from a Krylov subspace approximation. The approach allows a tunable and adaptive approximation that can take advantage of efficient preconditioning techniques. The proposed kernel approximation for the integration of the electronic equations of motion makes it possible to apply extended Lagrangian first-principles molecular dynamics simulations to a broader range of problems, including reactive chemical systems with numerically sensitive and unsteady charge solutions. This can be achieved without requiring exact full calculations of the inverse Jacobian kernel in each time step or relying on iterative non-linear self-consistent field optimization of the electronic ground state prior to the force evaluations as in regular direct Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics. We note the low-rank approximation of the Jacobian is directly related to Broyden’s class of quasi-Newton algorithms and Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov methods and provides a complementary formulation for the solution of nonlinear systems of equations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient Langevin dynamics for “noisy” forces

Efficient Boltzmann-sampling using first-principles methods is challenging for extended systems due to the steep scaling of electronic structure methods with the system size. Additionally, stochastic approaches provide a gentler system-size dependency at the cost of introducing “noisy” forces, which could limit the efficiency of the sampling. When the forces are deterministic, the first-order Langevin dynamics (FOLD) offers efficient sampling by combining a well-chosen preconditioning matrix S with a time-step-bias-mitigating propagator [G. Mazzola and S. Sorella, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 015703 (2017)]. However, when forces are noisy, S is set equal to the force-covariance matrix, a procedure that severely limits the efficiency and the stability of the sampling. Here, we develop a new, general, optimal, and stable sampling approach for FOLD under noisy forces. We apply it for silicon nanocrystals treated with stochastic density functional theory and show efficiency improvements by an order-of-magnitude.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Graph-based quantum response theory and shadow Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

Graph-based linear scaling electronic structure theory for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations [A. M. N. Niklasson et al., J. Chem. Phys. 144, 234101 (2016)] is adapted to the most recent shadow potential formulations of extended Lagrangian Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, including fractional molecular-orbital occupation numbers [A. M. N. Niklasson, J. Chem. Phys. 152, 104103 (2020) and A. M. N. Niklasson, Eur. Phys. J. B 94, 164 (2021)], which enables stable simulations of sensitive complex chemical systems with unsteady charge solutions. The proposed formulation includes a preconditioned Krylov subspace approximation for the integration of the extended electronic degrees of freedom, which requires quantum response calculations for electronic states with fractional occupation numbers. For the response calculations, we introduce a graph-based canonical quantum perturbation theory that can be performed with the same natural parallelism and linear scaling complexity as the graph-based electronic structure calculations for the unperturbed ground state. Further, the proposed techniques are particularly well-suited for semi-empirical electronic structure theory, and the methods are demonstrated using self-consistent charge density-functional tight-binding theory both for the acceleration of self-consistent field calculations and for quantum-mechanical molecular dynamics simulations. Graph-based techniques combined with the semi-empirical theory enable stable simulations of large, complex chemical systems, including tens-of-thousands of atoms.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solving the Hele–Shaw flow using the Harrow–Hassidim–Lloyd algorithm on superconducting devices: A study of efficiency and challenges

The development of quantum processors for practical fluid flow problems is a promising yet distant goal. Recent advances in quantum linear solvers have highlighted their potential for classical fluid dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the Harrow–Hassidim–Lloyd (HHL) quantum linear systems algorithm (QLSA) for solving the idealized Hele–Shaw flow. Our focus is on the accuracy and computational cost of the HHL solver, which we find to be sensitive to the condition number, scaling exponentially with problem size. This emphasizes the need for preconditioning to enhance the practical use of QLSAs in fluid flow applications. Moreover, we perform shots-based simulations on quantum simulators and test the HHL solver on superconducting quantum devices, where noise, large circuit depths, and gate errors limit performance. Error suppression and mitigation techniques improve accuracy, suggesting that such fluid flow problems can benchmark noise mitigation efforts. Finally, our findings provide a foundation for future, more complex application of QLSAs in fluid flow simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implicit full-F simulations of neoclassical ion transport

The development of implicit time integration capabilities for axisymmetric full-F continuum simulations of ion neoclassical transport is reported. The approach involves the implicit treatment of the gyrokinetic Vlasov equation coupled to the nonlinear Fokker–Planck collision model in the long-wavelength limit approximation. To facilitate implicit simulations, advanced preconditioning of individual physics operators is developed, and a global multi-physics preconditioner is constructed by adopting an operator splitting methodology. The algorithm is implemented in the finite-volume code COGENT and is applied to study neoclassical transport properties for both the main ion species and the lithium impurity species in the closed-field-line region of the LTX- β tokamak. The implicit COGENT simulations elucidate the role of non-local transport effects, while demonstrating substantial speedup over the corresponding explicit approach.

Dorf, Mikhail [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Semi-implicit continuum kinetic modeling of weakly collisional parallel transport in a magnetic mirror

We present implicit-explicit (IMEX) kinetic simulations of weakly collisional parallel plasma transport in magnetic mirror configurations using the continuum code COGENT. The numerical scheme employs a Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov method with algebraic multigrid preconditioning to overcome the severe time step limitations imposed by strong mirror forces in fully explicit schemes. Applied to parameters relevant to the Wisconsin HTS Axisymmetric Mirror experiment, the IMEX approach enables time steps up to 2.5×10 4 times larger than those permitted by explicit methods, resulting in a 2500× speedup in 1D–2V simulations of parallel transport with kinetic ions and Boltzmann electrons. Additionally, a reduced bounce-averaged model for a square mirror is implemented to support the computationally intensive fully kinetic simulations. The bounce-averaged formulation is used to evaluate the numerical convergence of the velocity-space discretization algorithms and to assess the role of the collision model by comparing simulations employing the nonlinear Fokker–Planck and the simplified Lenard–Bernstein–Dougherty collision operators.

Collision theories↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2026

Routes to high-performance operation in Wendelstein 7-X: turbulence suppression with shaping of the density profile

Steep density gradients generally lead to improved plasma performance in the neoclassically optimized stellarator W7-X. This is evident in the global energy confinement time as well as in the ion temperature and can be explained by a strong reduction of the ion temperature gradient turbulence. Such conditions can experimentally be realized by several methods: injection of cryogenic hydrogen pellets, appropriate combination of neutral beam and electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) and, in some cases, with low power of ECRH after preconditioning of the first wall. The duration of the improved phases is determined by the ability to sustain the steep density gradient, by technical limitations of the involved systems and, eventually, by the plasma stability. This paper gives an overview of relevant experimental results and presents example discharges where the improved confinement conditions could be extended to multiple seconds: up to 4 s using neutral beam injection and from 14 to 40 s with steady state pellet injection. In these plasmas the turbulent thermal diffusivity is reduced by a factor of 3 to 4 in a broad radial range, which allows high ion temperatures of up to 3 keV at the densities of about 1.5 • 10 20 m −3 .

high performance plasma↗
DOE OSTI2020

A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation

Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank–Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗