An enterprise control assessment case study of the energy–water nexus for the ISO New England system
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Muhanji, Steffi Olesi↗
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Radial electric field and density fluctuations measured by Doppler reflectometry during the post-pellet enhanced confinement phase in W7-X
Radial profiles of density fluctuations and the radial electric field, Er, have been measured using Doppler reflectometry during the post-pellet enhanced confinement phase achieved, under different heating power levels and magnetic configurations, during the 2018 W7-X experimental campaign. A pronounced Er-well is measured with local values as high as -40 kV m -1 in the radial range ρ ~ 0.7–0.8 during the post-pellet enhanced confinement phase. The maximum Er intensity scales with both the plasma density and electron cyclotron heating power level, following a similar trend to the plasma energy content. A good agreement is found when the experimental Er profiles are compared to simulations carried out using the neoclassical codes, the drift kinetic equation solver (DKES) and kinetic orbit-averaging solver for stellarators (KNOSOS). The density fluctuation level decreases from the plasma edge toward the plasma core and the drop is more pronounced in the post-pellet enhanced confinement phase than in reference gas-fuelled plasmas. Besides, in the post-pellet phase, the density fluctuation level is lower in the high iota magnetic configuration than in the standard one. Therefore, to determine whether this difference is related to the differences in the plasma profiles or to the stability properties of the two configurations, gyrokinetic simulations have been carried out using the codes stella and EUTERPE. The simulation results point to the plasma profile evolution after the pellet injection and the stabilization effect of the radial electric field profile as the dominant players in the stabilization of the plasma turbulence.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Resilience-Motivated Distribution System Restoration Considering Electricity-Water-Gas Interdependency
A major outage in the electricity distribution system may affect the operation of water and natural gas supply systems, leading to an interruption of multiple services to critical customers. Therefore, enhancing resilience of critical infrastructures requires joint efforts of multiple sectors. In this paper, a distribution system service restoration method considering the electricity-water-gas interdependency is proposed. The objective is maximizing the supply of electricity, water, and gas to critical customers after an extreme event. The operational constraints of electricity, water, and natural gas networks are considered. Additionally, the characteristics of electricity-driven coupling components, including water pumps and gas compressors, are also modeled. Relaxation techniques are applied to non convex constraints posed by physical laws of those networks. Consequently, the restoration problem is formulated as a mixed-integer second-order cone program, which can readily be solved by the off-the-shelf solvers. The proposed method is validated by numerical simulations on an electricity-water-gas integrated system, developed based on benchmark models of the subsystems. The results indicate that considering the interdependency refines the allocation of limited generation resources and demonstrate the exactness of the proposed convex relaxation
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Fuel Injection Dynamics and Composition Effects on RDE Performance
Rotating detonation engines (RDEs) provide a promising route to substantially increasing cycle efficiency in stationary gas turbines. Much of this increase relies on the ability to achieve consistent pressure gain within the combustor. In particular, the design of injectors that feed fuel and air into the detonation channel plays a crucial role. Such injectors have to ensure proper mixing of fuel and oxidizer, while minimizing backflow of detonation products into the feed plenums, and reduce susceptibility to the complex wave structures that exist within the combustor. From a practical perspective, such RDEs also need to operate with variable fuel composition. When fuel mixtures with components that possess vastly different oxidation pathways and time-scales are used, there could be additional losses through deflagrative burning instead of detonation-driven heat release. Such sensitivity to the complete flow path is akin to the physics of thermoacoustic instabilities in conventional gas turbines. In this sense, RDEs pose a unique research challenge: the performance of the device relies on the small-scale heat release process, which is highly dependent on the flow interactions within the full-scale system. As a result, canonical flow configurations, instrumented with detailed diagnostics or modeled using high-fidelity tools, but only focus on the small-scale processes will not contain the key system-level interactions. At the same time, macroscopic measurements and models that only capture system-level performance will not provide insight into the key sources of pressure losses. These couplings and sensitivities provide a formidable challenge to both experimental and simulation studies of the effects Thus, a joint experimental/computational program designed specifically to address these challenges was undertaken in this program. The focus of this program was on two key topics: a) the interaction between injector flow and the overall wave dynamics within the combustor, and b) the deflagration/detonation structure in multi-component fuels that are of practical interest. Both topics involve interaction of small-scale heat release processes with the geometry-dependent wave structure. Studies focused on the study of full-scale RDE systems, based on a 6-inch conventional annular geometry. Experimentally RDEs were studied using a combination of diagnostics. A combination of optical diagnostics and aero-thermo-acoustic analysis based on a combination of spectral and mode decomposition analysis was used to identify the dynamics of the detonation wave and other secondary waves that exist in the system. These studies have helped the identification and investigation of injector and detonation dynamics arising from coupling, and how they affect RDE mixing, detonation structure, operability and performance. Performance of RDEs was investigated through thrust stand measurements, which was used to evaluate the effective pressure gain generated by the system through the concept of equivalent available pressure. Optical diagnostics were developed and implemented to investigate the distribution of heat release, across the detonation wave. Novel optical diagnostics of NIR imaging was also developed and applied to investigate the high temperature / high pressure distribution across the detonation wave. In order to complement the experiments, the computational tools were geared to simulate the full experimental setup. GPU-based acceleration of the models and computations were developed to enable rapid simulation of the full system. In addition, the use of adaptive mesh refinement, and unstructured grid formulation, enabled the investigation of realistic geometries studied in the laboratory. The simulations produced a wealth of detail on the structure of the detonation wave under different operating conditions. Emphasis was placed on quantifying mixture pre-burning and the impact on wave propagation and structure.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Ammonia-fed reversible protonic ceramic fuel cells with Ru-based catalyst
Abstract The intermediate operating temperatures (~400–600 °C) of reversible protonic ceramic fuel cells (RePCFC) permit the potential use of ammonia as a carbon-neutral high energy density fuel and energy storage medium. Here we show fabrication of anode-supported RePCFC with an ultra-dense (~100%) and thin (4 μm) protonic ceramic electrolyte layer. When coupled to a novel Ru-(BaO) 2 (CaO)(Al 2 O 3 ) (Ru-B2CA) reversible ammonia catalyst, maximum fuel-cell power generation reaches 877 mW cm −2 at 650 °C under ammonia fuel. We report relatively stable operation at 600 °C for up to 1250 h under ammonia fuel. In fuel production mode, ammonia rates exceed 1.2 × 10 −8 NH 3 mol cm −2 s −1 at ambient pressure with H 2 from electrolysis only, and 2.1 × 10 −6 mol NH 3 cm −2 s −1 at 12.5 bar with H 2 from both electrolysis and simulated recycling gas.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Modelling and analysis of nuclear reactor system coupled with a liquid metal battery
Traditionally, nuclear power plants in the U.S. provide baseload power to the power grid because they have less flexibility for ramping their output power than natural gas peaking plants. However, achieving climate goals to reduce the consumption of fossil‐based natural gas places pressure on nuclear power plants and other power generators to ramp up their power output to balance grid generation with demand. This paper presents the modelling and performance analysis of a nuclear reactor system (NRS) coupled to a liquid‐metal battery (LMB) to improve its dynamic response and enable its black start capability. The NRS and LMB thermal behaviour are modelled in Dymola, while the electrical dynamics of the LMB and power grid are modelled in RTDS‐RSCAD. Both simulation platforms are coupled and share their thermal and electrical data using a Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) communication protocol. The dynamic performance of the NRS‐LMB integration is tested on the IEEE 9 bus, which demonstrates its ability to respond and provide frequency and voltage regulation. The black start capability of the NRS‐LMB is also evaluated by simulating a grid outage and using the LMB to supply the auxiliary loads required to bring the NRS back online as soon as possible. The results show that coupling an NRS to an LMB improves the system dynamic performance and enables it to black start after being disconnected from the grid for several days.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Cross-Beam Energy Transfer Saturation by Ion Heating
Cross-beam energy transfer (CBET) saturation by ion heating was measured in a gas-jet plasma characterized using Thomson scattering. Here, a wavelength-tunable ultraviolet (UV) probe laser beam was interacted with four intense UV pump beams to drive large-amplitude ion-acoustic waves. For the highest-intensity interactions, the power transferred to the probe laser dropped, demonstrating ion-acoustic wave saturation. Over this time, the ion temperature was measured to increase by a factor of 7 during the 500-ps interaction. Particle-in-cell simulations show ion trapping and a subsequent ion heating consistent with measurements. Linear kinetic CBET models were found to agree well with the observed energy transfer when the measured plasma conditions were used.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Biermann-Battery-Driven Magnetized Collisionless Shock Precursors in Laser-Produced Plasmas
This Letter reports the first complete observation of magnetized collisionless shock precursors formed through the compression of Biermann-battery magnetic fields in laser produced plasmas. At OMEGA, lasers produce a supersonic CH plasma flow which is magnetized with Biermann-battery magnetic fields. The plasma flow collides with an unmagnetized hydrogen gas jet plasma to create a magnetized shock precursor. The situation where the flowing plasma carries the magnetic field is similar to the Venusian bow shock. Imaging 2𝜔 Thomson scattering confirms that the interaction is collisionless and shows density and temperature jumps. Proton radiographs have regions of strong deflections and FLASH magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations show the presence of Biermann fields in the Thomson scattering region. Electrons are accelerated to energies of up to 100 keV in a power-law spectrum. Here, OSIRIS particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, initialized with measured parameters, show the formation of a magnetized shock precursor and corroborate the experimental observables.
High-energy-density plasmas↗
Bridging Scales in Black Hole Accretion and Feedback: Relativistic Jet Linking the Horizon to the Host Galaxy
Simulating black hole (BH) accretion and feedback from the BH horizon to galactic scales is extremely challenging, as it involves a vast range of scales. Recently, our multizone method has successfully achieved global dynamical steady states of hot accretion flows in 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by tracking the bidirectional interaction between a nonspinning BH and its host galaxy. In this paper, we present technical improvements to the method and apply it to spin a * = 0.9 BHs, which power relativistic jets. We first test the new multizone setup with a smaller Bondi radius, R B ≈ 400 r g , where r g is the gravitational radius. The strongly magnetized accretion launches a relativistic jet with an intermediate feedback efficiency η ∼ 30%, in between that of a prograde (η ∼ 100%) and retrograde (η ∼ 10%) torus. Interestingly, both prograde and retrograde simulations also eventually converge to the same intermediate efficiency when evolved long enough, as accumulated magnetic fields remove gas rotation. We then extend strongly magnetized simulations to larger Bondi radii, R B ≈ 2 × 10 3 , 2 × 10 4 , 2 × 10 5 r g . We find that the BH accretion rate $\dot{M}$ is suppressed with respect to the Bondi rate as $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}$ as $\dot{M}/\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}} ∝ R_{\textrm{B}}^{-1/2}$. However, despite some variability, the time-averaged feedback efficiency remains at η ∼ 30%, independent of R B . This suggests that BH feedback efficiency in hot accretion flows is mainly governed by the BH spin (a * ) rather than by the galactic properties (R B ). From these first-principles simulations, we provide a feedback subgrid prescription for cosmological simulations: $\dot{E}_{\textrm{fb}} = 2$ x $10^{-3}[R_{\textrm{B}}/(2$ x $10^5 r_g)]^{-1/2}$ $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}c^2$ for BH spin a * = 0.9.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Computer-Based Procedures Among Older Adults: Findings from the Rancor Microworld Simulator
As with many industries worldwide, nuclear energy is experiencing an aging workforce; older than other energy sources and the national average. For example, while almost one in three nuclear industry professionals are 55+ years, for oil and gas that number is one in five. The challenges brought about by an aging workforce are one of the industry’s top concerns. However, the industry lacks for empirical research that examines the effects of developmental aging in older workers, as well as the interactions between aging and new digital technologies. We present the results of an experiment that tested three different computer-based procedures in a sample of 30 older adults (55+ years). While the industry has traditionally relied on paper-based procedures, these are being modernized by digital technology. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three procedure-types that varied by the level of digitalization, based on the IEEE Standard-1786. Type 1 essentially represents a digital representation of a paper-based procedure, Type 2 adds embedded indicators, and Type 3 adds soft controls. Participants performed two different operational scenarios (startup and loss of feedwater) on a simplified nuclear power plant simulator. Results revealed a weak signal that Type 2 may produce lower workload and lower completion times in some instances. However, there were no significant effects of procedure-type across any other outcomes, including simulator log data, situation awareness, and preference ratings. We discuss our findings in terms of optimal levels of digitalization/automation for an aging nuclear workforce and suggest pathways for future directions.
46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
Numerical simulation of compressible fluid-dynamics in the chamber of inertial fusion energy systems
Here, this paper aims to establish new and innovative modeling capabilities for analyzing chambers in Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) systems. IFE is emerging as a promising method to achieve fusion power production, but several challenges must be overcome to develop an IFE pilot plant or deploy commercial IFE systems. These challenges are both theoretical and technical, encompassing a deeper understanding of the underlying physical phenomena and the development of new technologies and materials. One of the needs is to develop mathematical models to describe IFE systems and numerical tools to simulate them. This paper contributes to this endeavor by presenting a new OpenFOAM solver for IFE systems, focusing on gas dynamics in their chambers. The analysis and development of chamber designs will play a significant role in the transition from single-shot experiments to high-repetition rates, as there is a need to protect the chamber walls from the intense radiation fields produced by fusion reactions. A promising design option, normally referred to as thick wall chamber design, consists in using lithium or molten salt jet arrays within the chamber. A critical phenomenon is the venting of high-pressure gases from the center to the external part of the chamber, passing through the blanket array. This process involves the propagation and attenuation of strong pressure waves, requiring suitable modeling approaches for compressible fluid-dynamics. The solver proposed in this work implements a multi-material hydrodynamics model tailored to accurately describe the non-linear propagation of pressure waves while avoiding numerical oscillation issues typical of high-velocity compressible simulation. This solver is verified against numerical test cases, validated against experimental data, and applied to the analysis of the High-Yield Lithium-Injection Fusion-Energy (HYLIFE-I) concept. The relevance of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it contributes to developing and testing modeling approaches for compressible fluid-dynamics phenomena, with specific focus on the new and unexplored topic of IFE thick-liquid-wall blanket modeling. Secondly, it marks one of the first applications of the OpenFOAM library in the research field of IFE systems. Finally, the investigated problem is of practical interest for IFE developers, as it provides useful indications about relevant phenomena in pressure wave propagation in the chamber of these systems.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Compositional Variation Tests on DuraMelter 100 with LAW Sub-Envelope A1 Feed (LAWA44 Glass) in Support of the LAW Pilot Melter, VSL-02R62N0-4, Rev. 0 (Nov 2002)
The two tests described in this report utilized blended feed (glass formers plus waste simulant) prepared by Optima Chemicals according to VSL specifications generating about 1. 7 metric tons of glass. Sugar was added (at VSL) to the nominal feed at a "sugar ratio" of 0.5 for each of the two variation tests1; however, since the sugar addition is assumed to be "blind" to the variations, the actual sugar ratios were 0.57 and 0.44. The DMl00-WV melter was used in order to provide a direct comparison with the LAW tests previously conducted on the same melter. Two 100-hour melter tests were conducted: one with a 15% deficiency in simulant and one with 15% excess in simulant. Key operating parameters including cold cap coverage, feed rate, and glass pool temperature were held constant to investigate the effects of the glass compositional changes on processing characteristics (including salt formation) and the product glass. The bubbling rate was adjusted to provide the desired glass production rate with a near complete cold cap (90-100% of melt surface covered with feed). Quantitative measurements of glass production rates, melter operating conditions (temperatures, pressures, power, flows, etc.), and off-gas characteristics (NOx, SO 2, CO, particulate load and composition, and acid gases) were made for each test.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Dynamic Modelling and Performance Evaluation of a Chemisorption Heat Pump for Cold Climate
Space heating is a significant contributor to the energy consumption in residential buildings, especially in cold climates where electric-driven heat pumps lose the advantage of high efficiency and conventional gas-combustion furnaces have limited efficiency. Chemical adsorption (chemisorption) heat pumps (CSHP) have the potential for producing heating with high energy efficiency under cold operating conditions. A CSHP operates intermittently between desorption and adsorption modes, and their performance is affected by system design and transient system control. This study developed a dynamic model and used it to evaluate the daily system performance under different designs and controls, particularly the buffer tank size and the controlled minimum heating power. The simulation results revealed the effects of these parameters on the system performance and helped identify the optimal design and control for the highest coefficient of performance and heating capacity.
Yang, Zhiyao↗
Comparison of Fission Product Release Predictions using PARFUME and BISON with Results from the AGR-3/4 Irradiation Experiment
The PARFUME (PARticle Fuel ModEl) fuel performance modeling code and the BISON nuclear fuel performance application built on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library were used to predict the fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the third and fourth irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-3/4) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The fuel performance modeling codes PARFUME and BISON modeled the AGR-3/4 irradiation experiment using the fuel compact time-averaged volume averaged (TAVA) daily temperatures for a total irradiation duration of 369.1 effective full power days (EFPD) to predict the release fraction of the fission product silver (Ag-110m) from a representative TRISO-coated fuel particle from AGR-3/4 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on the release of these fission products in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SIC) layer. The PARFUME and BISON results were then compared to the silver release measured from compact gamma scanning. The results showed good agreement between PARFUME and BISON but both codes under-predicted the silver release fraction for all the compacts. In addition, BISON was used to model and predict the fission product concentration radial profile outside of the compacts in capsules’ inner and outer rings. These rings were either comprised of matrix and/or structural graphite. To obtain the concentration profiles of silver, cesium, and strontium, a sorption isotherm model was developed in BISON to capture the effects of fission product transport across the gaps between the concentric rings. The general shape of the concentration radial profiles as calculated by BISON were similar in the inner ring (IR) but varied in the outer ring (OR) depending on the fission product of interest or capsule temperature. Using this methodology and model, BISON now has the capability to aid in developing new fission product diffusion coefficients for matrix or structural graphite materials.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems
Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Levelized Cost of CO 2 Captured Using Five Physical Solvents in Pre-combustion Applications
Aspen Plus v8.8 was used to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a CO 2 capture process from a typical fuel gas stream in a 543-MW pre-combustion power plant using five different physical solvents (Selexol, PEGPDMS-1, NMP, [aPy][Tf 2 N] and [hmim][Tf 2 N]). The process included a countercurrent packed-bed absorber operating under high-pressure over a wide range of temperatures and three pressure-swing flash drums for solvent regeneration. Furthermore, two packings, Mellapak 250Y and IMTP50, were used and the Levelized costs of CO 2 captured (LCOC) were calculated. The simulation results indicated that using Mellapak 250Y exhibited lower LCOC values than those when using IMTP50 for the five solvents under all conditions used as it offered better mass transfer. The CO 2 capture process carried out at low temperatures showed lower LCOC values than those at higher temperatures due to the increased CO 2 solubility in the solvents at lower temperatures, requiring smaller absorber diameter and lower solvent circulation rates, which offset the cooling requirements. Comparing the lowest LCOC values for the five solvents, the hydrophobic PEGPDMS-1 solvent was the most promising one compared to the other four solvents, due to its lowest capital and operating costs and noncorrosive, which enabled using less expensive materials for the process equipment.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Findings from Large Bench-Scale Testing of Denitration Electrolyzers for the EDCGe Project
This report highlights the key findings and outcomes relevant to the processability of waste supernatant at Hanford using a denitration electrolyzer. The Electrosynthesis Company issued a Phase 1 report to the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), summarizing the evaluation of large bench-scale denitration electrolyzers to support the electrochemical denitration and caustic generation (EDCGe) project. The Electrosynthesis Company’s report (attached as Appendix A) provides insights into the initial steps required to implement an electrolyzer system at Hanford. Phase 1 experiments focused on validating the denitration electrolyzer’s performance, operating parameters, and reaction products. The robustness of the electrochemical denitration process was demonstrated by two electrolyzer flow cell systems (a 100 cm 2 ElectroCell MP and a 150 cm 2 NESI NS01 cell), both of which achieved significant nitrate and nitrite removal (>50%) with a current efficiency of ~95% for both systems. Higher current densities (500 mA cm –2 ) improved nitrate and nitrite removal rates compared to lower current densities (333 mA cm –2 ), while maintaining a current efficiency of ~94%. The NS01 cell achieved a nitrate species removal rate of ~0.41 mol h –1 at 5 kA m –2 (equiv. to 500 mA cm –2 ). The primary reaction product was ammonia (NH 3 ), constituting 78.3–91.6% of the products (excluding OH – formation). NH 3 was predominantly retained in the catholyte liquid phase rather than being off-gassed. Additionally, the NS01 cell reported an NH 3 generation rate of ~0.36 mol h –1 at 5 kA m –2 . Other gas formation included ~7% N 2 , ~7% H 2 , and trace amounts of N 2 O. The estimated power requirement (extrapolated from the 0.015 m 2 cell data) for a full-scale denitration electrolyzer is approximated to be ~1.6 MW (DC-only) to treat 50% of nitrate and nitrite in a waste stream and generates ~2.1 kmol h –1 of NH 3 with an initial concentration of 4 M NO 3 – /NO 2 – at 300 gal h –1 . Simulated waste containing aluminate, carbonate, oxalate, and halogens exhibited no adverse effects on denitration performance. A preliminary experiment comparing alkaline anolyte (5 M NaOH) with a nickel based anode to acidic media (2 M H 2 SO 4 ) with a DSA-O 2 anode showed a lower operating voltage and generated less H 2 than the acid media. Maintaining a stable 5 M OH – concentration in the anolyte through periodic additions of caustic did not significantly impact denitration performance. This operational mode will be required for long-term experiments. All the experiments demonstrated that electrochemical denitration is a promising approach for treating nitrate and nitrite in simulated waste streams, achieving significant conversion and robustness across varying experimental conditions and electrochemical cell configurations. Lastly, the ability to generate a nearly pure NH 3 stream may prove advantageous for processing at other locations within the Hanford site.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Cooperation in Transmission Expansion Planning: Enhancing Grid Reliability and Efficiency Under a Changing Climate
Electricity grids are challenged to maintain reliability during more intense and frequent extreme weather events due to climate change. This challenge is exacerbated by multi-sector electrification and power sector decarbonization through increased reliance on variable renewable energy, which necessitates the expansion of transmission infrastructure. However, transmission expansion planning is often complicated by intertwined planning authorities and jurisdictions, and allocation of large capital investment needs. These factors cause authorities to manage transmission investments individually (i.e., only/mostly intraregional planning), which can lead to suboptimal transmission networks. This study investigates the potential benefits of cooperative transmission expansion planning (i.e., both intraregional and interregional planning that optimizes transmission investments across the entire physical system). Using sectoral and economic optimization, and machine learning models, it analyzes the impact of different levels of cooperation among transmission planning regions within U.S. Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 via an iterative investment process. Furthermore, it examines the effects of future climate change on transmission cooperation by simulating historical heat waves from 2019 under conditions of 2059. The results indicate that cooperative transmission planning leads to lower wholesale electricity prices, decreased energy outages, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the advantages of collaboration diminish during widespread heat waves, despite remaining beneficial especially for regions like California Independent System Operator with substantial solar installations. The study underscores the importance of transmission cooperation in reducing costs and enhancing reliability, emphasizing the need for strategic investments in storage to address challenges posed by future extreme weather events with varying spatial scales.
Capacity Expansion Model↗