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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Joint Resource Modeling and Assessment for Hybrid Distributed Solar and Wind Systems

The inherent variability and uncertainty in distributed energy resources can presents myriad challenges to the planning and operations of power systems. These risks are poised to become larger as the penetration of renewable energy sources rises in the power generation mix. Hybrid solar-wind energy systems are able to mitigate some of these risks by their complementary resource availability. Surface solar and wind fields are coupled and correlated in both space and time. Appropriately estimating the hybrid solar wind energy system requires simulating the spatio-temporal structure of these fields that can be produced for each time horizon. We introduce a novel joint spatio-temporal stochastic differential equation (SPDE) approach that captures the spatio-temporal dynamics of solar and wind fields and their joint dependency over a domain for each time step. In the case study on Colorado, we consider nonstationary three-level hierarchical spatio temporal models for both hourly solar irradiance data and wind speed data in Colorado. Dependence between the solar irradiance data and wind speed data is captured by a shared spatio-temporal random effect. Our approach performs well in terms of the prediction score criterion.

joint modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

The sensitivity of the Fitch wind farm parameterization to a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer scheme

Abstract. Wind plant wake impacts can be estimated with a number of simulation methodologies, each with its own fidelity and sensitivity to model inputs. In turbine-free mesoscale simulations, hub-height wind speeds often significantly vary with the choice of a planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. However, the sensitivity of wind plant wakes to a PBL scheme has not been explored because, as of the Weather Research and Forecasting model v4.3.3, wake parameterizations were only compatible with one PBL scheme. We couple the Fitch wind farm parameterization with the new NCAR 3DPBL scheme and compare the resulting wakes to those simulated with a widely used PBL scheme. We simulate a wind plant in pseudo-steady states under idealized stable, neutral, and unstable conditions with matching hub-height wind speeds using two PBL schemes: MYNN and the NCAR 3DPBL. For these idealized scenarios, average hub-height wind speed losses within the plant differ between PBL schemes by between −0.20 and 0.22 m s−1, and correspondingly, capacity factors range between 39.5 %–53.8 %. These simulations suggest that PBL schemes represent a meaningful source of modeled wind resource uncertainty; therefore, we recommend incorporating PBL variability into future wind plant planning sensitivity studies as well as wind forecasting studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2000

AI in Space: The Era of Autonomous Space Systems

The development of autonomy capabilities is the key to three vastly important strategic technical challenges facing NASA: the reduction of mission costs, the continuing return of quality science products through limited communications bandwidth, and the launching of a new era of solar system exploration characterized by sustained presence and in-depth scientific studies, including the search for life. Autonomy will benefit future NASA missions by migrating routine, traditionally ground-based functions to the spacecraft, by directly supporting the decoupling of spacecraft from the ground through new operations concepts, by enabling direct links between scientists and the space platforms carrying their instruments of investigation, and by the closing, of planning and control loops onboard, enabling space platforms to directly address uncertainty in the real-time mission context. The talk will survey ongoing, autonomy technology development projects at NASA, many of which have been or will soon be the subject of flight technology experiments, or are already targeted for mission use. The talk will also survey the exciting suite of future NASA space exploration missions, and make the case for the central role of autonomy in achieving the goals of these bold, unprecedented missions: cooperating rovers on the surface of Mars, the search for Earth-like planets around nearby stars, asteroid and comet landers, aerobots in planetary atmospheres, and a series of missions to intriguing Europa, perhaps culminating in a submersible to investigate its putative ocean. Finally, the talk will conclude with some farther-reaching speculations on how to create properties such as long-term survivability and evolvability in future space systems, such that they will be well equipped to extend humanity exploratory presence into the interstellar realm.

Doyle, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of MODIS Reflected Solar Calibration Uncertainty

Determination of the calibration accuracy and traceability of a remote sensing instrument is a driving issue in the use of satellite data for calibration inter-comparisons and studying climate change. The Terra and Aqua MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments have successfully operated for more than 11 and 9 years, respectively. Twenty of the thirty six MODIS spectral bands are in the reflected solar region with center wavelengths ranging from 0.41 to 2.2 microns. MODIS reflective solar band (RSB) on-orbit calibration is reflectance based through the use of an on-board solar diffuser (SO). The calibration uncertainty requirements are +/-2.0% for the RSB reflectance factors at sensor specified typical scene reflectances or radiances. The SO bi-directional reflectance factor (BRF) was characterized pre-launch and its on-orbit changes are tracked by an on-board solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM). This paper provides an assessment of MODIS RSB on-orbit calibration traceability and uncertainty for its Level 1B (L1B) reflectance factors. It examines in details each of the uncertainty contributors, including those from pre-launch measurements as well as on-orbit observations. Common challenging issues and differences due to individual sensors' specific characteristics and on-orbit performance are also discussed in this paper. Guidance and recommendations are presented, based on lessons from MODIS RSB calibration uncertainty assessment, for the development of future instrument calibration and validation plans.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comparison of VIIRS Prelaunch RVS Among Independent Studies

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) is a key sensor carried on the NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System), upgraded and developed recently from heritage instruments including AVHRR, OLS, MODIS, and SeaWiFS. It has on-board calibration components including a solar diffuser (SD) and a solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM) for the reflective solar bands (RSB), a V-groove blackbody for the thermal emissive bands (TEB), and a space view (SV) port for background subtraction. These on-board calibrators are located at fixed scan angles. The VIIRS response versus scan angle (RVS) was characterized prelaunch in lab ambient conditions and will be used on-orbit to characterize the response for the all scan angles relative to the calibrator scan angle (SD for RSB and blackbody for TEB). Since the RVS is vitally important to the quality of calibrated radiance products, several independent studies were performed and their results were compared and validated. This document provides RVS results from three groups: the NPP Instrument Calibration Support Team (NICST), Raytheon, and the Aerospace Corporation. A comparison of the RVS results obtained using a 2nd order polynomial fit to measurement data is conducted for each band, detector, and half angle mirror (HAM) side. The associated RVS fitting residuals are examined and compared with the relative differences in RVS found between independent studies. Results show that the agreement is within 0.1% and comparable with fitting residuals for all bands except for RSB band M9, where a difference of 0.2% results from the application of the atmospheric water vapor correction for laboratory conditions during the test by Raytheon. NICST has slightly larger RSB RVS uncertainties but still well within the 0.3% total uncertainty allowed for the RVS characterization defined in the Performance Verification Plan.

Wu, Aisheng↗
NASA NTRS2014

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project Verification, Validation, and Credibility (VVandC)

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project supports end user requests by employing the Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) and IMM tools as well as subject matter expertise within the Project. The iMED houses data used by the IMM. The IMM is designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A stochastic approach is taken because deterministic results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation, as well as lay the foundation for external review and application. METHODS: In 2008, the Project team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was published, the Project team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. Construction of these tools included meeting documentation and evidence requirements sufficient to meet external review success criteria. RESULTS: IMM Project VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include updates to the 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM Project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the HRP NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document working group and the NASA-HDBK-7009 [2]. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including operations, science and technology planning, and exploration planning. IMM v4.0 is slated for operational release in the FY015 and current VVC assessments illustrate the expected VVC status prior to the completion of customer lead external review efforts. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM Project of incorporating Project-specific recommended practices and guidelines for implementing the 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM Project represented a critical communication tool in providing clear and concise suitability assessments to IMM customers. These processes have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Walton, M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA Earth Observations Informing Energy Management Decision Making

The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.

Eckman, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating three plan evaluation approaches for coordinated heat resilience in cities across the Arizona urban corridor

Increasing heat poses a growing threat to cities worldwide due to both climate change and the urban heat island effect. While heat planning and governance are still emergent, research suggests that silos and conflicts within cities' networks of plans often impede heat resilience. Integrated heat resilience planning, therefore, requires a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the silos and conflicts relevant to heat resilience within networks of plans. This study is the first to combine three complementary plan evaluation methods to assess how cities' networks of plans address heat resilience. We applied 1) plan cross-referencing, 2) Plan Quality Evaluation for Heat Resilience, and 3) Plan Integration for Resilience Scorecard™ (PIRS™) for Heat to 19 plans from seven Arizona cities. We find similarities and differences in how these cities' networks of plans address heat hazards. The plans have consistently high-quality participation and coordination principles but lack details on vulnerability and climate change uncertainty, suggesting a need to move beyond immediate heat risks. We also identify opportunities to diversify policy mechanisms, spatially target high heat risk areas, and enhance the connection between planning efforts. These results validate that plan elements are interlinked and the importance of integrative plan development processes to improve heat resilience.

Extreme heat↗
NASA NTRS2000

Stardust Navigation Covariance Analysis

The Stardust spacecraft was launched on February 7, 1999 aboard a Boeing Delta-II rocket. Mission participants include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Lockheed Martin Astronautics (LMA) and the University of Washington. The primary objective of the mission is to collect in-situ samples of the coma of comet Wild-2 and return those samples to the Earth for analysis. Mission design and operational navigation for Stardust is performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). This paper will describe the extensive JPL effort in support of the Stardust pre-launch analysis of the orbit determination component of the mission covariance study. A description of the mission and it's trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the covariance procedure and models. Predicted accuracy's will be examined as they relate to navigation delivery requirements for specific critical events during the mission. Stardust was launched into a heliocentric trajectory in early 1999. It will perform an Earth Gravity Assist (EGA) on January 15, 2001 to acquire an orbit for the eventual rendezvous with comet Wild-2. The spacecraft will fly through the coma (atmosphere) on the dayside of Wild-2 on January 2, 2004. At that time samples will be obtained using an aerogel collector. After the comet encounter Stardust will return to Earth when the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) will separate and land at the Utah Test Site (UTTR) on January 15, 2006. The spacecraft will however be deflected off into a heliocentric orbit. The mission is divided into three phases for the covariance analysis. They are 1) Launch to EGA, 2) EGA to Wild-2 encounter and 3) Wild-2 encounter to Earth reentry. Orbit determination assumptions for each phase are provided. These include estimated and consider parameters and their associated a-priori uncertainties. Major perturbations to the trajectory include 19 deterministic and statistical maneuvers planned for the mission. The spacecraft is three axis stabilized and has unbalanced thrusters for attitude control. Accelerations due to the attitude control system are treated stochastically. The tracking scenario for the study is patterned after the actual schedule employed during the different phases of the mission. Conventional X-band two-way Doppler and SRA range data was simulated and the standard accuracy for these data types was assumed throughout most of the mission. However, a deweighting scheme was used for the Doppler data during times of low Sun-Earth-Probe angles, especially in the case of the DSM. Optical data is assumed to be available starting at 50 days prior to the comet encounter. The optical data will be used to improve the ephemeris of Wild-2, which is considered crucial to properly target the comet flyby. Results of the covariance analysis are presented for all mission phases. Navigation capability will be discussed in terms of the uncertainty in the encounter B-Plane (B.R and B.T) and linearized time of flight. Delivery errors based on the final maneuver prior to the comet encounter will be presented. The most stringent navigation requirement is for the Earth reentry. The uncertainty in the flight path angle must be less than 0.02 degree (orbit determination and maneuver performance) to assure successful recovery of the SRC. Results presented show that this requirement can be met.

Menon, Premkumar R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Stationkeeping Monte Carlo Simulation for the James Webb Space Telescope

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is scheduled to launch in 2018 into a Libration Point Orbit (LPO) around the Sun-Earth/Moon (SEM) L2 point, with a planned mission lifetime of 10.5 years after a six-month transfer to the mission orbit. This paper discusses our approach to Stationkeeping (SK) maneuver planning to determine an adequate SK delta-V budget. The SK maneuver planning for JWST is made challenging by two factors: JWST has a large Sunshield, and JWST will be repointed regularly producing significant changes in Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP). To accurately model SRP we employ the Solar Pressure and Drag (SPAD) tool, which uses ray tracing to accurately compute SRP force as a function of attitude. As an additional challenge, the future JWST observation schedule will not be known at the time of SK maneuver planning. Thus there will be significant variation in SRP between SK maneuvers, and the future variation in SRP is unknown. We have enhanced an earlier SK simulation to create a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates random draws for uncertainties that affect the budget, including random draws of the observation schedule. Each SK maneuver is planned to optimize delta-V magnitude, subject to constraints on spacecraft pointing. We report the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and discuss possible improvements during flight operations to reduce the SK delta-V budget.

Stationkeepting↗
NASA NTRS2014

James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Stationkeeping Monte Carlo Simulations

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will launch in 2018 into a Libration Point Orbit (LPO) around the Sun-EarthMoon (SEM) L2 point, with a planned mission lifetime of 11 years. This paper discusses our approach to Stationkeeping (SK) maneuver planning to determine an adequate SK delta-V budget. The SK maneuver planning for JWST is made challenging by two factors: JWST has a large Sunshield, and JWST will be repointed regularly producing significant changes in Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP). To accurately model SRP we employ the Solar Pressure and Drag (SPAD) tool, which uses ray tracing to accurately compute SRP force as a function of attitude. As an additional challenge, the future JWST observation schedule will not be known at the time of SK maneuver planning. Thus there will be significant variation in SRP between SK maneuvers, and the future variation in SRP is unknown. We have enhanced an earlier SK simulation to create a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates random draws for uncertainties that affect the budget, including random draws of the observation schedule. Each SK maneuver is planned to optimize delta-V magnitude, subject to constraints on spacecraft pointing. We report the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and discuss possible improvements during flight operations to reduce the SK delta-V budget.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2024

UNCERTAINTIES FOR IN-REACTOR TESTING OF TRITIUM LOADED GETTERS WITH TEMPERATURE CONTROL

The fourth experiment in TPBAR Materials Irradiation Separate-Effects Test (TMIST) series (TMIST-4) is planned to experimentally determine the effect of neutron irradiation on the equilibrium vapor pressure of tritium over a tritium loaded Nickel-Plated Zirconium (NPZ) getter in a simulated TPBAR service environment. This pressure will be used to estimate the tritium permeation rate. In the thermal design in the TMIST-4, two evaluations are required. 1) The cladding temperature is calculated to estimate the feasibility of detecting potential irradiation enhancement of the partial pressure for an NPZ getter. This work is required to obtain a precise cladding temperature for measurement of a low tritium partial pressure. This work has been completed and indicated that the required/target cladding temperatures based on the TMIST-4 test plan can be satisfied under the test condition range by modifying the capsule component shapes and inserting a thermally conductive metal sleeve. 2) The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the test design and operation is performed. This includes fabrication tolerances, and power and nuclear operating conditions. These factors will impact the component temperatures inside capsules and resulting the tritium partial pressure. The tritium permeation rate is a function of temperature and tritium partial pressure. The prediction of tritium permeation rates affects the feasibility of obtaining measurement resolutions required to reach reasonable conclusion for potential irradiation enhanced performance. This work will investigate the uncertainties.

TTP, TPBAR, TMIST-4, TPBAR Materials Irradiation S↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Modeling of Two Mars Powered Descent Vehicle Concepts Tested in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

Future human Mars missions will require powered descent starting at supersonic conditions, something which has never been done before at Mars. Computational powered descent flowfield simulations have been completed at full-scale Mars conditions, but the available ground test data are not suitable for calibrating computational uncertainties for aerodynamic interference on proposed Mars descent vehicles. Testing was conducted in the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel in order to investigate the aerodynamic interference of sub-scale versions of two Mars powered descent vehicle concepts at supersonic Mach numbers (2.4 and 3.5): a model based on a blunt hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator (HIAD) and the second representing a more slender rigid vehicle with body flaps (CobraMRV). This paper covers computational flowfield predictions completed at wind tunnel conditions and comparisons to the test data. On the blowing HIAD models, the time-averaged pressure inboard of the nozzles was generally well-predicted, especially if the nozzles are canted outward, when the nozzles are located further from the nose. At intermediate CobraMRV thrust coefficients, CFD pressures are more accurately predicted than they are for the HIAD models, largely due to the nozzle locations and pointing directions. Overall, the CFD pressure coefficients were predicted within 0.2 of the steady pressure measurements for all blowing models, with smaller discrepancies at higher HIAD thrust, and larger discrepancies at lower HIAD CobraMRV thrust. All HIAD models were predicted to have a gradually decreasing axial force coefficient as the total thrust increases, in agreement with available pressure sensitive paint data. On models with canted nozzles or with nozzles further from the nose, the force coefficient was slightly higher for a given thrust. On the CobraMRV model, the CFD also shows consistent results between solvers and follows trends revealed in the data; the aerodynamic force coefficient remains near the non-blowing value at a tunnel Mach number of 2.4 regardless of thrust, and increases above that level at a Mach number of 3.5, consistent with the discrete pressure data. CFD analysis at tunnel and flight conditions will continue as flight system designs concepts mature.

Supersonic Retropropulsion↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Modeling of Two Mars Powered Descent Vehicle Concepts Tested in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

Future human Mars missions will require powered descent starting at supersonic conditions, something which has never been done before at Mars. Computational powered descent flowfield simulations have been completed at full-scale Mars conditions, but the available ground test data are not suitable for calibrating computational uncertainties for aerodynamic interference on proposed Mars descent vehicles. Testing was conducted in the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel in order to investigate the aerodynamic interference of sub-scale versions of two Mars powered descent vehicle concepts at supersonic Mach numbers (2.4 and 3.5): a model based on a blunt hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator (HIAD) and the second representing a more slender rigid vehicle with body flaps (CobraMRV). This paper covers computational flowfield predictions completed at wind tunnel conditions and comparisons to the test data. On the blowing HIAD models, the time-averaged pressure inboard of the nozzles was generally well-predicted, especially if the nozzles are canted outward, when the nozzles are located further from the nose. At intermediate CobraMRV thrust coefficients, CFD pressures are more accurately predicted than they are for the HIAD models, largely due to the nozzle locations and pointing directions. Overall, the CFD pressure coefficients were predicted within 0.2 of the steady pressure measurements for all blowing models, with smaller discrepancies at higher HIAD thrust, and larger discrepancies at lower HIAD CobraMRV thrust. All HIAD models were predicted to have a gradually decreasing axial force coefficient as the total thrust increases, in agreement with available pressure sensitive paint data. On models with canted nozzles or with nozzles further from the nose, the force coefficient was slightly higher for a given thrust. On the CobraMRV model, the CFD also shows consistent results between solvers and follows trends revealed in the data; the aerodynamic force coefficient remains near the non-blowing value at a tunnel Mach number of 2.4 regardless of thrust, and increases above that level at a Mach number of 3.5, consistent with the discrete pressure data. CFD analysis at tunnel and flight conditions will continue as flight system designs concepts mature.

Supersonic Retropropulsion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Variational Information Planning for Sequential Decision Making

We consider the setting of sequential decision making where, at each stage, potential actions are evaluated based on expected reduction in posterior uncertainty, given by mutual information (MI). As MI typically lacks a closed form, we propose an approach which maintains variational approximations of, both, the posterior and MI utility. Our planning objective extends an established variational bound on MI to the setting of sequential planning. The result, variational information planning (VIP), is an efficient method for sequential decision making. We further establish convexity of the variational planning objective and, under conditional exponential family approximations, we show that the optimal MI bound arises from a relaxation of the well-known exponential family moment matching property. Here, we demonstrate VIP for sensor selection, experiment design, and active learning, where it meets or exceeds methods requiring more computation, or those specialized to the task.

Pacheco, Jason↗
NASA NTRS2013

Mass Uncertainty and Application For Space Systems

Expected development maturity under contract (spec) should correlate with Project/Program Approved MGA Depletion Schedule in Mass Properties Control Plan. If specification NTE, MGA is inclusive of Actual MGA (A5 & A6). If specification is not an NTE Actual MGA (e.g. nominal), then MGA values are reduced by A5 values and A5 is representative of remaining uncertainty. Basic Mass = Engineering Estimate based on design and construction principles with NO embedded margin MGA Mass = Basic Mass * assessed % from approved MGA schedule. Predicted Mass = Basic + MGA. Aggregate MGA % = (Aggregate Predicted - Aggregate Basic) /Aggregate Basic.

Beech, Geoffrey↗