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At least 325 records · Page 18

Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the capabilities to quantify uncertainty from model inputs and calculate probabilistic estimates for slope failures. Results indicate that remote sensing data can provide many of the spatiotemporal requirements for accurate landslide monitoring and early warning; however, higher resolution precipitation inputs will help to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale, which will serve as key inputs to significantly advance the accuracy of landslide hazard assessment, particularly over larger spatial scales.

Kirschbaum, Dalia↗

A continuum damage approach to spallation and the role of microinertia

Spall failure is of interest due to its prevalence in high strain rate problems in which the spallation is driven by the interaction of release waves. In this article, a porosity-based damage model that includes microinertial effects is used to examine spall failure. The model is successfully calibrated to plate impact-driven experiments and then used to evaluate experimental conditions producing more extreme strain rate conditions, such as those in laser-driven experiments. The incorporation of microinertia allows us to better understand the increase in apparent macroscopic spall strength seen at high strain rates. Correspondingly, we conclude that the incorporation of microinertial effects improves the model’s predictive capabilities. Microinertial effects result in more severe local tensile stresses that affect the damage evolution, and microinertia can play a significant role in the approach to the material’s ideal strength at extreme loading rates. Additionally, a preliminary parametric study is also carried out to investigate the role of microstructural aspects such as nucleation volume fraction and initial pore radius. One counter-intuitive result from the microinertial effects is that, for a given nucleation site volume fraction, having larger initial pore nucleation sites can lead to an improved macroscopic spall strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗

Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Performance Assessment of Concrete Structures in Nuclear Installations

Concrete structures in nuclear installations are subject to time-dependent degradation mechanisms that can deteriorate their physical and mechanical properties, potentially exacerbating the risk of structural failure under external forces such as a seismic event. Previous research has extensively investigated the seismic response of nuclear concrete structures and the associated risk, as well as their effect on structural components safety margins. However, substantial work is still necessary to incorporate concrete aging effects into such evaluations. In fact, most models in the literature assume pristine concrete conditions and do not account for the impact of aging on the structural components’ fragility curves. This work identifies relevant time-dependent degradation mechanisms and provides simplified models to predict the the evolution of key material properties based on data from the literature. Namely, this work focuses on the aging effects of corrosion, alkali–silica reaction (ASR), and irradiation on reinforced concrete within US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants (NPP) structures. Furthermore, degradation models based on literature data are presented that define the relationship between probabilistic material properties and the concrete’s age. In this work, sampled material properties served as input for a simplified finite element model (FEM) of a critical nuclear structural system, with the output of the FEM being the seismic response for a given ground motion. The results of the FEM were then used within a probabilistic performance assessment with a statistically significant number of samples. The research presented herein addresses the detrimental effects of hazards caused by natural phenomena on deteriorated concrete elements of nuclear installations. This work directly benefits the safety analysis performed on US DOE/ National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear facilities located in areas prone to seismic activity. The results presented herein could aid in the improvement of DOE-STD-1020, the DOE Standard that addresses seismic risk analysis and capacity evaluation in DOE facilities. DOE-STD-1020 refers to the requirements in American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 4-98, now superseded by ASCE 4-16, that shall be met in performing dynamic response analyses and generating in-structure response spectra, provided that such requirements are consistent with the requirements of ASCE/Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) 43-05. Moreover, the results presented herein could also aid in the updating of section C3.1.1. of ASCE 4-16 to account for the effects of aging on the stiffness of reinforced elements and American Concrete Institute (ACI) 349.3R-18, “Report on Evaluation and Repair of Existing Nuclear Safety-Related Concrete Structures.” Ultimately, this work can assist the risk assessment of potential lifetime extension of the existing US commercial nuclear fleet (light water reactors) and the safety analysis of the emerging advanced nuclear reactors. The proposed proof-of-concept methodology employs open-source DOE computational tools and is transferable to commercial software commonly used by engineering firms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Skylab program payload integration. Skylab film environmental effects

The effects of the Skylab environments on the 22 types of film used for data recording on Skylab were evaluated. Environmental histories and sensitometric curves for 114 rolls of film used for this evaluation are presented. Photographic parameters evaluated in detail were film fogging of black and white films, changes in maximum density of color film, latent image fading, and changes in film sensitivity. Other photographic and film physical anomalies such as electrostatic exposure, emulsion cracking, and reciprocity failure were also documented. Results based upon comparison of film sensitometric data for flight film with ground control film and ground test film are presented independently for each film type. The study showed that photographic film fulfilled the requirements of the Skylab applications in which it was used. Environmental film degradation, although present on almost every roll, did not preclude recording sufficient data to meet experiment requirements for all film, except film type SC-5. Specific conclusions are provided in the areas of further analyses, tests, and developments.

Source record↗

Practical implementation of the double linear damage rule and damage curve approach for treating cumulative fatigue damage

Simple procedures are given for treating cumulative fatigue damage under complex loading history using either the damage curve concept or the double linear damage rule. A single equation is given for use with the damage curve approach; each loading event providing a fraction of damage until failure is presumed to occur when the damage sum becomes unity. For the double linear damage rule, analytical expressions are given for determining the two phases of life. The procedure comprises two steps, each similar to the conventional application of the commonly used linear damage rule. Once the sum of cycle ratios based on Phase I lives reaches unity, Phase I is presumed complete, and further loadings are summed as cycle ratios based on Phase II lives. When the Phase II sum attains unity, failure is presumed to occur. It is noted that no physical properties or material constants other than those normally used in a conventional linear damage rule analysis are required for application of either of the two cumulative damage methods described. Illustrations and comparisons are discussed for both methods.

Manson, S. S.↗

Microgravity Science in Space Flight Gloveboxes

Microgravity science studies the influences of gravity on phenomena in fluids, materials processes, combustion, and human cell growth in the low acceleration environment of space flight. During the last decade, the accomplishment of the flight research in the field has evolved into an effective cooperation between the flight crew in the Shuttle and the ground-based investigator using real-time communication via voice and video links. This team structure has led to interactive operations in which the crew performs the experimentation while guided, as necessary, by the science investigator who formulated the investigation and who will subsequently interpret and analyze the data. One of the primary challenges to implementing this interactive research has been the necessity of structuring a means of handling fluids, gases, and hazardous materials in a manned laboratory that exhibits the novelty of weightlessness. Developing clever means of designing experiments in closed vessels is part of the solution- but the space flight requirement for one and two failure-tolerant containment systems leads to serious complications in the physical handling of sample materials. In response to the conflict between the clear advantage of human operation and judgment, versus the necessity to isolate the experiment from the crewmember and the spacecraft environment, the Microgravity Research Program has initiated a series of Gloveboxes in the various manned experiment carriers. These units provide a sealed containment vessel whose interior is under a negative pressure with respect to the ambient environment but is accessible to a crewmember through the glove ports.

Baugher, Charles↗

Electro-Thermal Simulation Studies of SiC Junction Diodes Containing Screw Dislocations Under High Reverse-Bias Operation

The objective of this work was to conduct a modeling study of SiC P-N junction diodes operating under high reverse biased conditions. Analytical models and numerical simulation capabilities were to be developed for self-consistent electro-thermal analysis of the diode current-voltage (I-V) characteristics. Data from GRC indicate that screw dislocations are unavoidable in large area SiC devices, and lead to changes in the SiC diode electrical response characteristics under high field conditions. For example, device instability and failures linked to internal current filamentation have been observed. The physical origin of these processes is not well understood, and quantitative projections of the electrical behavior under high field and temperature conditions are lacking. Thermal calculations for SiC devices have not been reported in the literature either. So estimates or projections of peak device temperatures and power limitations do not exist. This numerical study and simulation analysis was aimed at resolving some of the above issues. The following tasks were successfully accomplished: (1) Development of physically based models using one- and two-dimensional drift-diffusion theory for the transport behavior and I-V characteristics; (2) One- and two-dimensional heat flow to account for internal device heating. This led to calculations of the internal temperature profiles, which in turn, were used to update the electrical transport parameters for a self-consistent analysis. The temperature profiles and the peak values were thus obtainable for a given device operating condition; (3) Inclusion of traps assumed to model the presence of internal screw dislocations running along the longitudinal direction; (4) Predictions of the operating characteristics with and without heating as a function of applied bias with and without traps. Both one and two-dimensional cases were implemented; (5) Assessment of device stability based on the operating characteristics. The presence of internal non-uniformities, particularly filamentary structures, was probed and demonstrated; (6) Cause and physical origins of filamentary behavior and unstable I-V characteristics were made transparent; (7) It was demonstrated that diodes containing defects would be more prone to thermal breakdown associated with the temperature dependent decrease in the thermal conductivity; and (8) Finally, negative differential resistance (S-shaped NDR) which can potential lead to device instability and filamentary behavior was shown to occur for diodes containing a line of defects such as could be associated with a screw dislocation line.

Joshi, R. P.↗

Basis for the thermal-vacuum hot dwell test duration

This work suggests that the hot dwell duration for each test should be determined in two steps: a minimum hot duration of 80 hours be required and then followed by specific tailoring be conducted to arrive at the proper test duration.

early test failure distribution Weibull analysis r↗

Launch Vehicle Debris Models and Crew Vehicle Ascent Abort Risk

For manned space launch systems, a reliable abort system is required to reduce the risks associated with a launch vehicle failure during ascent. Understanding the risks associated with failure environments can be achieved through the use of physics-based models of these environments. Debris fields due to destruction of the launch vehicle is one such environment. To better analyze the risk posed by debris, a physics-based model for generating launch vehicle debris catalogs has been developed. The model predicts the mass distribution of the debris field based on formulae developed from analysis of explosions. Imparted velocity distributions are computed using a shock-physics code to model the explosions within the launch vehicle. A comparison of the debris catalog with an existing catalog for the Shuttle external tank show good comparison in the debris characteristics and the predicted debris strike probability. The model is used to analyze the effects of number of debris pieces and velocity distributions on the strike probability and risk.

Gee, Ken↗

Comparison between PARFUME and Bison Using the AGR-2 Irradiation Experiment

This report documents comparisons between Fuel Model (PARFUME) model predictions versus Bison for selected compacts from the second irradiation test of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program that occurred from June 2010 to October 2013 in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). PARFUME is a fuel performance analysis and modeling code, used for evaluating gas-reactor tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for prismatic, pebble bed, plate, and cylindrical type fuel geometries. PARFUME is an integrated mechanistic computer code that evaluates the thermal, mechanical, and physico-chemical behavior of TRISO coated-fuel particles and the probability for fuel failure given the particle-to-particle statistical variations in physical dimensions and material properties that arise during the fuel fabrication process. Bison is a nuclear fuel performance application built using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element library (Permann 2020). Bison is capable of modeling multiple fuel forms in a wide variety of dimensions and geometries. It solves coupled nonlinear partial differential equations, including heat conduction, mechanics, fission product species transport etc., in a fully implicit manner. Comparisons between PARFUME and Bison were performed using four compacts from the AGR-2 experiment. Selected outputs were chosen based on their impact on the probability of the SiC layer failing. In general there was good agreement between PARFUME and Bison with the exception of predicting the gap formed between the buffer and IPyC. Further comparisons between PARFUME and Bison are planned to further develop Bison’s capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF NOVEL MATERIALS BASED ON RELIABILITY INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT USING CUMULATIVE DAMAGE MODELING

There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the 2019 ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain remaining technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. A modeling approach potentially applicable to item (b), based on cumulative damage modeling rather than failure rates, is briefly illustrated.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Energetic Materials

Energetic materials comprise explosives, pyrotechnics, and propellants. The science of energetic materials is dedicated to developing a means to predict performance and safety characteristics with high fidelity. This is a particular challenge and is predicated on materials science and engineering, physics, chemistry, and dynamic response in extreme conditions. Fundamental elements of these complicated composite materials remain grand challenges—from the design of high-energy metastable molecules, to the engineering of composite formulations, to the processing parameters that link to safety and performance characteristics in as-yet undetermined ways. Key elements include crystalline mechanics, grain dynamics, multiphase interfaces, thermal and mechanical damage, and failure—all linked to multistep and high-rate chemistry and shock physics. A future revolution in our understanding and predictive capability for energetic materials behavior and responses is dependent upon sustained focus and advances in materials research and development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Moving from Information Assurance to Functional Assurance with Engineered Controls

Cyber threats to operational technology demand more than traditional IT defenses—they require full-spectrum mission assurance. Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is an approach that embeds engineered controls into system design to ensure critical functions remain safe and reliable, even under attack. Unlike conventional cybersecurity tools, engineered controls act directly on physical processes to prevent unacceptable outcomes such as equipment damage or mission failure. This session will outline the CIE framework and share examples of consequence-based design that deliver true resilience, not just fail-safe behaviors. Attendees will learn how to integrate these principles into the engineering lifecycle to support resilient-by-design architectures and inform emerging standards. This talk sets the stage for the panel discussion on advancing CIE across sectors as digital and physical systems converge.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Physics-informed neural networks for identification of material properties using standing waves

A metallic structure in its initial stage of failure involves plastic deformation or environmental degradation that changes the elastic modulus and density. This work presents the detection of change in wave velocity (a function of elastic modulus and density) as a system identification problem. A physics-informed neural network (PINN) is proposed to solve the system identification problem. The PINN takes the spatial coordinates of scanning locations and time as inputs and provides the displacement and wave velocity as outputs. The governing partial differential equation of standing waves in a rod is incorporated into the neural network as physics in the form of a loss function. The wave velocity vector is randomly initiated. During the training of the network, physics is used to determine and update the wave velocity target vector from the network’s displacement predictions. The measured data, comprising sparse displacement response on the rod structure, are used to train the PINN. The wave velocity at the sparse locations on the rod is learned from the predicted displacements during the training. Using the predictions of the trained network, the response of free vibration or material property variation can be reconstructed at unscanned locations on the structure to obtain high-resolution maps for full-field imaging to detect and localize the changes caused by plastic deformation. The PINN’s sparse scanning and simultaneous prediction capability during training can lead to high scanning and data-processing speeds. This capability yields a nondestructive evaluation system that can predict the presence of degraded material locations as the structural vibrations are scanned and processed in real time.

Rathod, Vivek↗

Nondestructive Methods and Special Test Instrumentation Supporting NASA Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Assessments

Many aging composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs), being used by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are currently under evaluation to better quantify their reliability and clarify their likelihood of failure due to stress rupture and age-dependent issues. As a result, some test and analysis programs have been successfully accomplished and other related programs are still in progress at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) and other NASA centers, with assistance from the commercial sector. To support this effort, a group of Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) experts was assembled to provide NDE competence for pretest evaluation of test articles and for application of NDE technology to real-time testing. Techniques were required to provide assurance that the test article had adequate structural integrity and manufacturing consistency to be considered acceptable for testing and these techniques were successfully applied. Destructive testing is also being accomplished to better understand the physical and chemical property changes associated with progression toward "stress rupture" (SR) failure, and it is being associated with NDE response, so it can potentially be used to help with life prediction. Destructive work also includes the evaluation of residual stresses during dissection of the overwrap, laboratory evaluation of specimens extracted from the overwrap to evaluate physical property changes, and quantitative microscopy to inform the theoretical micromechanics.

Saulsberry, Regor↗

Faster-than-real-time Simulation with Demonstration for Resilient DER Integration

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. The Faster-than-real-time Simulation with demonstration for Resilient DER Integration project set out to do the following: a. Flatten the voltage profile through the feeders and system for cost saving and voltage stabilization needs. b. Increase the amount of intermittent distributed energy resources (IDERs) that could be deployed on a utility feeder and provide 100% or more energy needed for the demands on that feeder, and c. based on an accurate model (Digital Twin) of the utilities system, be able to detect any abnormalities on the utilities distribution system. To manage the voltage and increase IDER penetration (a,b), Graph Trace Analysis is employed in a time-series, optimal power flow to coordinate the time-varying feedback control setpoints of a distribution feeder’s utility control devices. Under the coordinated control are a Load Tap Changing Transformer, a voltage regulator, and five switched capacitor banks. The feeder serves over 2000 customers, the feeder secondaries are modeled, and the feeder has 2.3 MW of PV generation, corresponding to a 17.4% penetration of PV generation. The feeder model has over 12,000 components, where every customer load bus and PV generator are modeled. The accuracy of the power flow solution is compared against historical meter voltage measurements, the improvement in conservation voltage reduction energy savings as a function of the coordinated control desired voltage profile is investigated, and the increase in PV penetration of the coordinated control over the existing control is presented. To achieve improved control performance while observing system operation constraints, bellwether Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) voltage measurements are used to adjust the desired voltage profile used by the optimal power flow analysis. To detect and alleviate or negate attacks or failures on the distribution and transmission utility grids (c) the grid needs to be resilient and self-healing. In this project software was designed to do just that. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hard-ware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

Integrated System Model, Graph Trace Analysis, Adv↗

Characterization of the Insoluble Solids of the 241-17F and 241-49H Pump house Water Sample

Six different water samples from 241-17F and 241-49H pump house were analyzed for chemical and physical characteristics as part of efforts to understand recent mechanical seal failures associated with four new cooling water pumps. A focus of this work was characterization of any “as found” insoluble solids. The insoluble material found in the FCRW (F-Area caustic water treated with sodium chromate at 241-17F) sample are mostly magnetite (Fe3O4 or possibly equipment rust) and silica. It was found that 26% of measured FCRW particles have at least one dimension larger than 15 microns. The insoluble particles found in the source water, domestic water (FDW), are mostly kaolin (aluminosilicate) and some iron oxide. All found FDW particles were larger than 15 microns. The insoluble particles of the other source water, FArea well water (FWW), were mostly iron oxide with some trapped cations like calcium. Only 8% of found FWW particles were bigger than 15 microns.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗