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NASA NTRS2011

Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

micro air vehicles (MAVs)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Magnetars as Astrophysical Laboratories of Extreme Quantum Electrodynamics: The Case for a Compton Telescope

A next generation of Compton and pair telescopes that improve MeV-band detection sensitivity by more than a decade beyond current instrumental capabilities will open up new insights into a variety of astrophysical source classes. Among these are magnetars, the most highly magnetic of the neutron star zoo, which will serve as a prime science target for a new mission surveying the MeV window. This paper outlines the core questions pertaining to magnetars that can be addressed by such a technology. These range from global magnetar geometry and population trends, to incisive probes of hard X-ray emission locales, to providing cosmic laboratories for spectral and polarimetric testing of exotic predictions of QED, principally the prediction of the splitting of photons and magnetic pair creation. Such fundamental physics cannot yet be discerned in terrestrial experiments. State of the art modeling of the persistent hard X-ray tail emission in magnetars is presented to outline the case for powerful diagnostics using Compton polarimeters. The case highlights an inter-disciplinary opportunity to seed discovery at the interface between astronomy and physics.

Wadiasingh, Zorawar↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of MODIS and VIIRS Cloud-Gap-Filled Snow-Cover Products for Production of an Earth Science Data Record

MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cryosphere products have been available since 2000 – following the 1999 launch of the Terra MODIS and the 2002 launch of the Aqua MODIS – and include global snow-cover extent (SCE) (swath, daily, and 8 d composites) at 500 m and ∼5 km spatial resolutions. These products are used extensively in hydrological modeling and climate studies. Reprocessing of the complete snow-cover data record, from Collection 5 (C5) to Collection 6 (C6) and Collection 6.1 (C6.1), has provided improvements in the MODIS product suite. Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Collection 1 (C1) snow-cover products at a 375 m spatial resolution have been available since 2011 and are currently being reprocessed for Collection 2 (C2). Both the MODIS C6.1 and the VIIRS C2 products will be available for download from the National Snow and Ice Data Center beginning in early 2020 with the complete time series available in 2020. To address the need for a cloud-reduced or cloud-free daily SCE product for both MODIS and VIIRS, a daily cloud-gap-filled (CGF) snow-cover algorithm was developed for MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS C2 processing. MOD10A1F (Terra) and MYD10A1F (Aqua) are daily, 500 m resolution CGF SCE map products from MODIS. VNP10A1F is the daily, 375 m resolution CGF SCE map product from VIIRS. These CGF products include quality-assurance data such as cloud-persistence statistics showing the age of the observation in each pixel. The objective of this paper is to introduce the new MODIS and VIIRS standard CGF daily SCE products and to provide a preliminary evaluation of uncertainties in the gap-filling methodology so that the products can be used as the basis for a moderate-resolution Earth science data record (ESDR) of SCE. Time series of the MODIS and VIIRS CGF products have been developed and evaluated at selected study sites in the US and southern Canada. Observed differences, although small, are largely attributed to cloud masking and differences in the time of day of image acquisition. A nearly 3-month time-series comparison of Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS CGF snow-cover maps for a large study area covering all or parts of 11 states in the western US and part of southwestern Canada reveals excellent correspondence between the Terra MODIS and S-NPP VIIRS products, with a mean difference of 11 070 sqkm, which is ∼0.45 % of the study area. According to our preliminary validation of the Terra and Aqua MODIS CGF SCE products in the western US study area, we found higher accuracy of the Terra product compared with the Aqua product. The MODIS CGF SCE data record beginning in 2000 has been extended into the VIIRS era, which should last at least through the early 2030s.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP) Investigations of the Eyewall of Hurricane Bonnie CAMEX-3

A persistent, mesoscale region of intense eyewall convection contained within Hurricane Bonnie on 23 August 1998 is examined from multiple observations synthesized from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft. The intense convection occurred late in the day as Bonnie was attaining its minimum central pressure and during a stage when the inner core featured a markedly asymmetric structure. The main purpose of this paper is to describe the internal structure of a convective burst and its relationship to the warm core using a synthesis of high-resolution satellite, aircraft radar, and in situ data. An exceptionally vigorous eyewall tower penetrating to nearly 18 km is described. A second intense eyewall tower, adjacent to the eye, is shown to be associated with a mesoscale subsiding current of air that extends horizontally nearly 20 km into the eye interior. The subsidence occupies a substantial depth within the eye and appears to be a much larger scale feature than the convectively-induced, symmetric overturning which commonly occurs on the upper-level flanks of convective towers in other tropical environments.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Earthbound applications for NASA's physician workstation

The dream of a space probe to Mars or an astronaut colony on the moon persists. Despite years of setbacks and delays, NASA continues to lay the foundation for a new frontier in space. The necessity of a self contained health maintenance facility is an integral part of this stellar venture. As a subsystem of this health maintenance facility, the physician or astronaut workstation was envisioned as the vehicle of interface between the computer resources of the space station and the care provider. Our efforts to define and build this interface have resulted in a series of programs which can now be tested and refined using earth-based applications. The modules which have dual-use application from the NASA workstation include: patient scheduling and master patient index, pharmacy, laboratory, medical library, problem list/progress notes, and digital medical records. Our current plan is to develop these tools as objects that can be assembled in a variety of configurations. This will allow the technology to be used by the private sector where each doctor can select the starting point of his outpatient office system and add modules as he makes progress in system integration and training.

NASA Discipline Number 70-30↗

NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring 2009 Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States, Based on Near-Real Time and Historical MODIS 250 Meter NDVI Products

This case study shows the promise of computing current season forest disturbance detection products at regional to CONUS scales. Use of the eMODIS expedited product enabled a NRT CONUS forest disturbance detection product, a requirement for an eventual, operational forest threat EWS. The 2009 classification product from this study can be used to quantify the areal extent of forest disturbance across CONUS, although a quantitative accuracy assessment still needs to be completed. However, the results would not include disturbances that occurred after July 27, such as the Station Fire. While not shown here, the project also produced maximum NDVI products for the June 10-July 27 period of each year of the 2000-2009 time frame. These products could be applied to compute forest change products on an annual basis. GIS could then be used to assess disturbance persistence. Such follow-on work could lead to attribution of year in which a disturbance occurred. These products (e.g., Figures 6 and 7) may also be useful for assessing forest change associated with climate change, such as carbon losses from bark beetle-induced forest mortality in the Western United States. Other MODIS phenological products are being assessed for aiding forest monitoring needs of the EWS, including cumulative NDVI products (Figure 10).

Spruce, J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Applications of Electrified Dust and Dust Devil Electrodynamics to Martian Atmospheric Electricity

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kV m(exp. -1) to 100 kV m(exp. -1) have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m(exp. -1) can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface) MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) Instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ electrical measurements.

Lighting Discharge↗

NASA NTRS2010

Use of Current 2010 Forest Disturbance Monitoring Products for the Conterminous United States in Aiding a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

This presentation discusses contributions of near real time (NRT) MODIS forest disturbance detection products for the conterminous United States to an emerging national forest threat early warning system (EWS). The latter is being developed by the USDA Forest Service s Eastern and Western Environmental Threat Centers with help from NASA Stennis Space Center and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Building off work done in 2009, this national and regional forest disturbance detection and viewing capability of the EWS employs NRT MODIS NDVI data from the USGS eMODIS group and historical NDVI data from standard MOD13 products. Disturbance detection products are being computed for 24 day composites that are refreshed every 8 days. Products for 2010 include 42 dates of the 24 day composites. For each compositing date, we computed % change in forest maximum NDVI products for 2010 with respect to each of three historical baselines of 2009, 2007-2009, and 2003-2009,. The three baselines enable one to view potential current, recent, and longer term forest disturbances. A rainbow color table was applied to each forest change product so that potential disturbances (NDVI drops) were identified in hot color tones and growth (NDVI gains) in cold color tones. Example products were provided to end-users responsible for forest health monitoring at the Federal and State levels. Large patches of potential forest disturbances were validated based on comparisons with available reference data, including Landsat and field survey data. Products were posted on two internet mapping systems for US Forest Service internal and collaborator use. MODIS forest disturbance detection products were computed and posted for use in as little as 1 day after the last input date of the compositing period. Such products were useful for aiding aerial disturbance detection surveys and for assessing disturbance persistence on both inter- and intra-annual scales. Multiple 2010 forest disturbance events were detected across the nation, including damage from ice storms, tornadoes, caterpillars, bark beetles, and wildfires. This effort enabled improved NRT forest disturbance monitoring capabilities for this nation-wide forest threat EWS.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Is the Electron Avalanche Process in a Martian Dust Devil Self-Quenching?

Viking era laboratory experiments show that mixing tribocharged grains in a low pressure CO2 gas can form a discharge that glows, indicating the presence of an excited electron population that persists over many seconds. Based on these early experiments, it has been predicted that martian dust devils and storms may also contain a plasma and new plasma chemical species as a result of dust grain tribo-charging. However, recent results from modeling suggest a contrasting result: that a sustained electron discharge may not be easily established since the increase in gas conductivity would act to short-out the local E-fields and quickly dissipate the charged grains driving the process. In essence, the system was thought to be self-quenching (i.e., turn itself off). In this work, we attempt to reconcile the difference between observation and model via new laboratory measurements. We conclude that in a Mars-like low pressure CO2 atmosphere and expected E-fields, the electron current remains (for the most part) below the expected driving tribo-electric dust currents (approx. 10 microA/m(exp. 2)), thereby making quenching unlikely.

Electron↗

NASA NTRS1986

Observations of vertical winds and the origin of thermospheric gravity waves launched by auroral substorms and westward travelling surges

Several sequences of observations of strong vertical winds in the upper thermosphere are discussed, in conjunction with models of the generation of such winds. In the auroral oval, the strongest upward winds are observed in or close to regions of intense auroral precipitation and strong ionospheric currents. The strongest winds, of the order of 100 to 200 m/sec are usually upward, and are both localized and of relatively short duration (10 to 20 min). In regions adjacent to those displaying strong upward winds, and following periods of upward winds, downward winds of rather lower magnitude (40 to about 80 m/sec) may be observed. Strong and rapid changes of horizontal winds are correlated with these rapid vertical wind variations. Considered from a large scale viewpoint, this class of strongly time dependent winds propagate globally, and may be considered to be gravity waves launched from an auroral source. During periods of very disturbed geomagnetic activity, there may be regions within and close to the auroral oval where systematic vertical winds of the order of 50 m/sec will occur for periods of several hours. Such persistent winds are part of a very strong large scale horizontal wind circulation set up in the polar regions during a major geomagnetic disturbance. This second class of strong horizontal and vertical winds corresponds more to a standing wave than to a gravity wave, and it is not as effective as the first class in generating large scale propagating gravity waves and correlated horizontal and vertical oscillations. A third class of significant (10 to 30 m/sec) vertical winds can be associated with systematic features of the average geomagnetic energy and momentum input to the polar thermosphere, and appear in statistical studies of the average vertical wind as a function of Universal Time at a given location.

Rees, D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Constellation Program: Lessons Learned: Executive Summary - Volume 1

This document (Volume I) provides an executive summary of the lessons learned from the Constellation Program. A companion Volume II provides more detailed analyses for those seeking further insight and information. In this volume, Section 1.0 introduces the approach in preparing and organizing the content to enable rapid assimilation of the lessons. Section 2.0 describes the contextual framework in which the Constellation Program was formulated and functioned that is necessary to understand most of the lessons. Context of a former program may seem irrelevant in the heady days of new program formulation. However, readers should take some time to understand the context. Many of the lessons would be different in a different context, so the reader should reflect on the similarities and differences in his or her current circumstances. Section 3.0 summarizes key findings developed from the significant lessons learned at the program level that appear in Section 4.0. Readers can use the key findings in Section 3.0 to peruse for particular topics, and will find more supporting detail and analyses in Section 4.0 in a topical format. Appendix A contains a white paper describing the Constellation Program formulation that may be of use to readers wanting more context or background information. The reader will no doubt recognize some very similar themes from previous lessons learned, blue-ribbon committee reviews, National Academy reviews, and advisory panel reviews for this and other large-scale human spaceflight programs; including Apollo, Space Shuttle, Shuttle/Mir, and the ISS. This could represent an inability to learn lessons from previous generations; however, it is more likely that similar challenges persist in the Agency structure and approach to program formulation, budget advocacy, and management. Perhaps the greatest value of these Constellation lessons learned can be found in viewing them in context with these previous efforts to guide and advise the Agency and its stakeholders.

Constellation Program↗

NASA NTRS1996

Observations and Analysis of Atmospheric Hydroxyl

Ground-based measurements of sunlight absorption at the OH P(sub 1)(l) resonance line at 308 nm have been made on a continuous basis at Fritz Peak, Colorado. The derived OH vertical column abundances show the persistence of a new seasonal regime which began in 1991. The fall minimum has been consistently depressed about 10-15% below the 1980-1990 average fall values. While the initial onset of depressed fall abundances occurred a few months after the Pinatubo eruption, there has been no fall OH recovery correlating with decreased amounts of volcanic aerosol found since spring 1993. The Colorado data also continues to exhibit an AM-PM asymmetry which varies seasonally, approximately in phase with local total ozone. These observations were presented at the Front Range AGU meeting in February 1996 and were published in Geophysical Research Letters in July 1996 (preprint enclosed). An update through the fall of 1996, when morning abundances were found to be extremely low, was presented at the Fall 1996 AGU meeting (abstract attached). A PEPSIOS instrument of identical design is currently operational and has been used since April 1996 for OH column measurements at New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM. Title for both instruments was transferred from Florida Atlantic University to New Mexico Tech in February of 1996. Comparative measurements from the two instruments for April-July 1996 indicate small differences in OH column abundances, with New Mexico (34 deg N) abundances about 10% above Colorado (40 deg N) values for comparable solar zenith angles. A more detailed comparison will require at least one full year of data from both locations. New Mexico measurements were obtained on June 10, 1996, concurrently with a balloon launch of the NASA STRAT mission from Fort Sumner, New Mexico. We hope to make use of STRAT measurements H2O, CH4, and O3 which are particularly relevant to OH photochemistry. Additional work at New Mexico Tech involves a comparison of P(sub 1)(1) and Q(sub 1)(3) absorption by the method of Doppler shift of solar limb spectra. These are being used to infer path weighted temperatures and for validations studies on the standard method of analysis using the single P(sub 1)(1) line. Results were presented at the Fall 1996 AGU meeting (abstract attached). A graduate student in the Physics Department at New Mexico Tech has been supported since August 1996. The student is investigating column OH behavior using the NCAR 2-D model of the middle atmosphere. Graduate student support was not available until the start of the second year (Nov. 15, 1996), therefore funds have been transferred from the allocation for the research associate, who resigned from the project July 1, 1996.

Minschwaner, Ken R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A comparison of cosmological hydrodynamic codes

We present a detailed comparison of the simulation results of various hydrodynamic codes. Starting with identical initial conditions based on the cold dark matter scenario for the growth of structure, with parameters h = 0.5 Omega = Omega(sub b) = 1, and sigma(sub 8) = 1, we integrate from redshift z = 20 to z = O to determine the physical state within a representative volume of size L(exp 3) where L = 64 h(exp -1) Mpc. Five indenpendent codes are compared: three of them Eulerian mesh-based and two variants of the smooth particle hydrodynamics 'SPH' Lagrangian approach. The Eulerian codes were run at N(exp 3) = (32(exp 3), 64(exp 3), 128(exp 3), and 256(exp 3)) cells, the SPH codes at N(exp 3) = 32(exp 3) and 64(exp 3) particles. Results were then rebinned to a 16(exp 3) grid with the exception that the rebinned data should converge, by all techniques, to a common and correct result as N approaches infinity. We find that global averages of various physical quantities do, as expected, tend to converge in the rebinned model, but that uncertainites in even primitive quantities such as (T), (rho(exp 2))(exp 1/2) persists at the 3%-17% level achieve comparable and satisfactory accuracy for comparable computer time in their treatment of the high-density, high-temeprature regions as measured in the rebinned data; the variance among the five codes (at highest resolution) for the mean temperature (as weighted by rho(exp 2) is only 4.5%. Examined at high resolution we suspect that the density resolution is better in the SPH codes and the thermal accuracy in low-density regions better in the Eulerian codes. In the low-density, low-temperature regions the SPH codes have poor accuracy due to statiscal effects, and the Jameson code gives the temperatures which are too high, due to overuse of artificial viscosity in these high Mach number regions. Overall the comparison allows us to better estimate errors; it points to ways of improving this current generation ofhydrodynamic codes and of suiting their use to problems which exploit their best individual features.

Kang, Hyesung↗

NASA NTRS2016

Using Unmanned Air Systems to Monitor Methane in the Atmosphere

Methane is likely to be an important contributor to global warming, and our current knowledge of its sources, distributions, and transport is insufficient. It is estimated that there could be from 7.5 to 400 billion tons carbon-equivalent of methane in the arctic region, a broad range that is indicative of the uncertainty within the Earth Science community. Unmanned Air Systems (UASs) are often used for combat or surveillance by the military, but they also have been used for Earth Science field missions. In this study, we will analyze the utility of the NASA Global Hawk and the Aurora Flight Sciences Orion UASs compared to the manned DC-8 aircraft for conducting a methane monitoring mission. The mission will focus on the measurement of methane along the boundaries of Arctic permafrost thaw and melting glaciers. The use of Long Endurance UAS brings a new range of possibilities including the ability to obtain long- term and persistent observations and to significantly augment methane measurements/retrievals collected by satellite. Furthermore, we discuss the future of long endurance UAS and their potential for science applications in the next twenty to twenty-five years.

Clow, Jacqueline↗

NASA NTRS2022

In-space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM) State of Play 2022 Edition

The future of spaceflight will yield increasingly more ambitious missions to support civil, national security, and commercial space sectors. Achieving these ambitious missions is not feasible using the traditional paradigm of launching an integrated, fully functioning system on a single launch vehicle. For example, science and human exploration missions will desire payloads that are larger than any foreseeable launch vehicle fairing, national security missions will require persistent assets that are mobile and resilient, and commercial space missions will require cost-effective ways to update to the latest technology on orbit. In-space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM) can vastly expand the performance, availability, and lifetime of space systems compared to the traditional paradigm of launching an asset with no intent to ever touch it again. ISAM capabilities foster an ecosystem that changes the space operations paradigm, creating the foundation for sustainable exploration and serving as a multiplier for other capabilities like space logistics, power generation, and reusability. Previous achievements in ISAM have enabled ambitious human and robotic space missions. NASA’s International Space Station (ISS) operations and maintenance, servicing missions of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and Northrop Grumman’s Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV) demonstrate the dramatic operational missions that can be achieved using ISAM capabilities. Many current and upcoming flight demonstrations are advancing areas that will enable the next generation of civil, national security, and commercial space missions. This document describes the current state of ISAM missions, capabilities, and developments. Compiling and organizing the available ISAM capabilities will help mission designers incorporate ISAM technologies into their concepts, create the starting point for technology development plans and roadmaps, and provide technologists a survey of the field they are developing. This document divides the ISAM capabilities into 11 capability areas that describe the functions or activities that would be performed in space using ISAM. This version of the ISAM State of Play is part of a continuing journey to encourage the use of ISAM capabilities in space. Compiling and organizing the current state of ISAM provides a simple resource for those working in the ISAM ecosystem to ensure that the advancements being made build upon the investments of the past. The state of play is ever changing as new capabilities are developed, and this document will be periodically updated to ensure that it is relevant to those who need it in the future.

ISAM↗

NASA NTRS2010

CHOICE - Directed Study: Consequences of longterm- Confinement and Hypobaric HypOxia on Immunity in the Antarctic Concordia Environment

Concerning ground-based space physiological research, the choice of analog must carefully match the system of interest. For spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation (SAID), Antarctica winter-over has emerged as potentially the best terrestrial analog. The prolonged mission durations, extreme/dangerous environment, station-based lifestyle, isolation from outside world, disrupted circadian rhythms, and other psychological aspects make this analog extremely high fidelity for exploration-class space missions (long duration lunar, Mars). NASA, ESA and RSA are currently investigating SAID, with NASA currently operating the Integrated Immune flight study. It is desirable to have a ground analog for SAID validated, so that potential countermeasures might be validated terrestrially prior to during flight. For this presentation, NASA data collected on the winterover 2009 crewmembers, baseline through early deployment will be presented. Through early deployment (approximately 2-3 weeks at Concordia), phenotypic alterations included increased levels of memory T cells, shifts among the CD8+ T cell compartment to a more mature phenotype, and increases in constitutively activated T cells. CD8+/IFNg+ T cell percentages, and T cell blastogenesis functional responses were depressed early deployment as compared to healthy controls. In four compatible subjects, secreted T cell Th1/Th2 cytokines were measured following culture stimulation, and a Th2 shift was observed as compared to controls. Post-winter over frozen sample return will be required to determine if this shift persisted during the winter over period. Additionally, circadian rhythms remained altered compared to baseline, as determined through 5x daily cortisol measurements. Latent viral reactivation will not be determined until frozen sample return occurs.

Sams, Clarence↗

NASA NTRS1989

Changing composition of the global stratosphere

The current understanding of stratospheric chemistry is reviewed with particular attention to the influence of human activity. Models are in good agreement with measurements for a variety of species in the mid-latitude stratosphere, with the possible exception of ozone (O3) at high altitude. Rates calculated for loss of O3 exceed rates for production by about 40 percent at 40 kilometers, indicating a possible but as yet unidentified source of high-altitude O3. The rapid loss of O3 beginning in the mid-1970s at low altitudes over Antarctica in the spring is due primarily to catalytic cycles involving halogen radicals. Reactions on surfaces of polar stratospheric clouds play an important role in regulating the abundance of these radicals. Similar effects could occur in northern polar regions and in cold regions of the tropics. It is argued that the Antarctic phenomenon is likely to persist: prompt drastic reduction in the emission of industrial halocarbons is required if the damage to stratospheric O3 is to be reversed.

Mcelroy, Michael B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III

The AMU created new logistic regression equations in an effort to increase the skill of the Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II (Lambert 2007). One equation was created for each of five sub-seasons based on the daily lightning climatology instead of by month as was done in Phase II. The assumption was that these equations would capture the physical attributes that contribute to thunderstorm formation more so than monthly equations. However, the SS values in Section 5.3.2 showed that the Phase III equations had worse skill than the Phase II equations and, therefore, will not be transitioned into operations. The current Objective Lightning Forecast Tool developed in Phase II will continue to be used operationally in MIDDS. Three warm seasons were added to the Phase II dataset to increase the POR from 17 to 20 years (1989-2008), and data for October were included since the daily climatology showed lightning occurrence extending into that month. None of the three methods tested to determine the start of the subseason in each individual year were able to discern the start dates with consistent accuracy. Therefore, the start dates were determined by the daily climatology shown in Figure 10 and were the same in every year. The procedures used to create the predictors and develop the equations were identical to those in Phase II. The equations were made up of one to three predictors. TI and the flow regime probabilities were the top predictors followed by 1-day persistence, then VT and Ll. Each equation outperformed four other forecast methods by 7-57% using the verification dataset, but the new equations were outperformed by the Phase II equations in every sub-season. The reason for the degradation may be due to the fact that the same sub-season start dates were used in every year. It is likely there was overlap of sub-season days at the beginning and end of each defined sub-season in each individual year, which could very well affect equation performance.

Crawford, Winifred C.↗