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DOE OSTI2022

Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Parameters in CLM4 via Generalized Polynomial Chaos in the Bayesian Framework

In this work, generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion for land surface model parameter estimation is evaluated. We perform inverse modeling and compute the posterior distribution of the critical hydrological parameters that are subject to great uncertainty in the Community Land Model (CLM) for a given value of the output LH. The unknown parameters include those that have been identified as the most influential factors on the simulations of surface and subsurface runoff, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and soil moisture in CLM4.0. We set up the inversion problem in the Bayesian framework in two steps: (i) building a surrogate model expressing the input–output mapping, and (ii) performing inverse modeling and computing the posterior distributions of the input parameters using observation data for a given value of the output LH. The development of the surrogate model is carried out with a Bayesian procedure based on the variable selection methods that use gPC expansions. Our approach accounts for bases selection uncertainty and quantifies the importance of the gPC terms, and, hence, all of the input parameters, via the associated posterior probabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Constant and Transient Membrane Transport Parameters for Use in Wave Desalination Models

Directly pressurizing seawater for desalination with reverse osmosis membranes via wave motion is a promising and sustainable method for producing freshwater in coastal regions. However, such a system could result in significant pressure fluctuations and a departure from conventional steady-state desalination operations. This study sought to assess if membrane transport parameters (apparent water and salt permeability) should be modeled as transient or constant in solution–diffusion-based modeling efforts of dynamically operated desalination systems, such as those coupled to wave power. Two approaches were used to model membrane transport parameters: one considered each parameter to be a function of the net driving pressure of the system, and the other assumed they were constant across all conditions. A pilot-scale system was used to conduct steady-state and controlled ramping experiments. Data from steady-state experiments were used to calculate transient and constant transport parameters. Parameter combinations were used in a simulation model to predict water flux and effective permeate salinity, and simulation outcomes were compared against experimental ramping results. The transient relationships for both water and salt permeability produced the most accurate results for water flux and comparable results for effective permeate salinity. Development of such relationships would be unique to a specific system but could be valuable in modeling wave-driven desalination systems across the wide range of operating conditions they experience.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Sixth Data Release of the Radial Velocity Experiment (Rave). II. Stellar Atmospheric Parameters, Chemical Abundances, and Distances

We present part 2 of the sixth and final Data Release (DR6) of the Radial Velocity Experiment (Rave), a magnitude-limited (9<I<12) spectroscopic survey of Galactic stars randomly selected in Earth’s southern hemisphere. The Rave medium-resolution spectra (R ∼ 7500) cover the Ca triplet region (8410–8795 Å) and span the complete time frame from the start of Rave observations on 2003 April 12 to their completion on 2013 April 4. In the second of two publications, we present the data products derived from 518,387 observations of 451,783 unique stars using a suite of advanced reduction pipelines focusing on stellar atmospheric parameters, in particular purely spectroscopically derived stellar atmospheric parameters (T{sub eff}, logg, and the overall metallicity), enhanced stellar atmospheric parameters inferred via a Bayesian pipeline using Gaia DR2 astrometric priors, and asteroseismically calibrated stellar atmospheric parameters for giant stars based on asteroseismic observations for 699 K2 stars. In addition, we provide abundances of the elements Fe, Al, and Ni, as well as an overall [α/Fe] ratio obtained using a new pipeline based on the GAUGUIN optimization method that is able to deal with variable signal-to-noise ratios. The Rave DR6 catalogs are cross-matched with relevant astrometric and photometric catalogs, and are complemented by orbital parameters and effective temperatures based on the infrared flux method. The data can be accessed via the Rave website (http://rave-survey.org) or the Vizier database.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads in extreme idling conditions

Abstract. Floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) systems are subject to complex environmental loads, with significant potential for damage in extreme storm conditions. Design simulations in these conditions are required to assess the survivability of the device with some level of confidence. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic engineering tools can be used with a reasonable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency. The models require many input parameters to describe the air and water conditions, the system properties, and the load calculations. Each of these parameters has some possible range, due to either statistical uncertainty or variations with time. Variation in the input parameters can have important effects on the uncertainty in the resulting loads, but it is not practical to perform detailed assessments of the impact of this uncertainty for every input parameter. This work demonstrates a method to identify the input parameters that have the most impact on the loads to focus further inspection. The process is done specifically for extreme storm load cases defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission design requirements for floating offshore wind turbines. The analysis was performed using the International Energy Agency Wind 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine atop the University of Maine VolturnUS-S reference platform in two US offshore wind regions, the Gulf of Maine and Humboldt Bay. It was found that the direction of incident waves and current, yaw misalignment, and the length of mooring line sections were among the primary sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

CORPSE model with litter decomposition parameters derived from the LIDET dataset

This is a version of the CORPSE model (Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment, Sulman et al. 2014) that uses litter decomposition parameters derived from a modified Monte Carlo simulation using the LIDET litter decomposition dataset (Long-term Intersite Decomposition Experiment Team, Harmon 2013). The code also includes the Baseline parameters, and the eight other best parameter sets identified in a modified Monte Carlo simulation. Related publication:Juice, S.M., Ridgeway, J.R., Hartman, M.D., Parton, W.J., Berardi, D.M., Sulman, B.N., Allen, K.E., & Brzostek, E.R. Reparameterizing litter decomposition using a simplified Monte Carlo method improves litter decay simulated by a microbial model and alters bioenergy soil carbon estimates. Description of files:The folder "Input Files" contains one folder for each LIDET site with data necessary to run the model. Note that "(site)" in the filenames below indicates where the LIDET site code appears (see Table 1 for site codes). Data streams include: CORPSE_full_spinup_litter.csv, CORPSE_full_spinup_rhizo.csv, CORPSE_full_spinup_bulk.csv, litterbag_init_100g_6spp.csv: initial C and N (kg C or N/m2) pool values for each soil layer, the litterbag_init_100_6spp.csv file is for the litterbag layer and is the same file for all sites. All initial C and N files have the same columns (Column - Description - Units) uFastC - Unprotected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uSlowC - Unprotected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 uNecroC - Unprotected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 pFastC - Protected fast decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pSlowC - Protected slow decomposing carbon - kg carbon/m2 pNecroC - Protected necromass carbon - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeC - Carbon in living microbial biomass - kg carbon/m2 uFastN - Unprotected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uSlowN - Unprotected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 uNecroN - Unprotected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pFastN - Protected fast decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pSlowN - Protected slow decomposing nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 pNecroN - Protected necromass nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 inorganicN - Inorganic nitrogen - kg nitrogen/m2 CO2 - Carbon in carbon dioxide - kg carbon/m2 livingMicrobeN - Nitrogen in living microbial biomass - kg nitrogen/m2 soilT (site) DOY274start.csv: Average daily soil temperature (oC) interpolated from previously calculated monthly values used in DayCent LIDET simulations (Bonan et al., 2013). soilT (site) DOY274start.csv: Average daily soil volumetric water content (VWC) scalar interpolated from previously calculated monthly values used in DayCent LIDET simulations (Bonan et al., 2013). litter production.csv: Average daily litter production values for each site, data sources listed in Table S3 of related publication. litter (site) CN.csv: C:N ratio for each species from LIDET dataset (Table 2, Harmon 2013). (site).csv: Table indicating number of observations for each species decomposed at each site. Instructions: Save the model code ("CORPSE_LIDET.R") and "Input Files" folder in the same folder. Also make a folder for the model output (e.g., "results_Baseline") in the same folder. Set the working directory (setwd) in the model code to the folder with the files saved in step #1. Select the parameter set to use for the litter and litterbag compartments, comment out all other parameter sets. Run code. Output will be saved in the folder made in step 1. Output destination can be changed as necessary in code section called "Running the model." Table 1 LIDET sites and site codes used in model files. Site Code - Site AND - H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest BNZ - Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest BSF - Blodgett Research Forest CDR - Cedar Creek Natural History Area CPR - Central Plains Experimental Range HBR - Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest HFR - Harvard Forest JUN - Juneau KBS - Kellogg Biological Station KNZ - Konza Prairie Research Natural Area NWT - Niwot Ridge/Green Lakes Valley OLY - Olympic National Park OLY Conifer forest SEV - Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge SMR - Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve UFL - University of Florida VCR - Virginia Coast Reserve Table 2 LIDET species and species codes used in model files (6 common species). Species - Species Code Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) - ACSA Drypetes (Drypetes glauca) - DRGL Red pine (Pinus resinosa) - PIRE Chestnut oak (Quercus prinus) - QUPR Western redcedar (Thuja plicata) - THPL Wheat (Triticum aestivum) - TRAE References:Bonan, G. B., Hartman, M. D., Parton, W. J., & Wieder, W. R. (2013). Evaluating litter decomposition in earth system models with long-term litterbag experiments: an example using the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). Global Change Biology, 19(3), 957-974. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12031 Harmon, M. (2013). LTER Intersite Fine Litter Decomposition Experiment (LIDET), 1990 to 2002. Long-Term Ecological Research. Forest Science Data Bank, Corvallis, OR. [Data set]. Accessed http://andlter.forestry.oregonstate.edu/data/abstract.aspx?dbcode=TD023. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f35f56bea52d78b6a1ecf1952b4889c5. Sulman, B. N., Phillips, R. P., Oishi, A. C., Shevliakova, E., & Pacala, S. W. (2014). Microbe-driven turnover offsets mineral-mediated storage of soil carbon under elevated CO2. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1099 - 1102. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2436

Juice, Stephanie↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1972

Methods of computing vocabulary size for the two-parameter rank distribution

A summation method is described for computing the vocabulary size for given parameter values in the 1- and 2-parameter rank distributions. Two methods of determining the asymptotes for the family of 2-parameter rank-distribution curves are also described. Tables are computed and graphs are drawn relating paris of parameter values to the vocabulary size. The partial product formula for the Riemann zeta function is investigated as an approximation to the partial sum formula for the Riemann zeta function. An error bound is established that indicates that the partial product should not be used to approximate the partial sum in calculating the vocabulary size for the 2-parameter rank distribution.

Edmundson, H. P.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Coordinate transformation by minimizing correlations between parameters

This investigation was to determine the transformation parameters (three rotations, three translations and a scale factor) between two Cartesian coordinate systems from sets of coordinates given in both systems. The objective was the determination of well separated transformation parameters with reduced correlations between each other, a problem especially relevant when the sets of coordinates are not well distributed. The above objective is achieved by preliminarily determining the three rotational parameters and the scale factor from the respective direction cosines and chord distances (these being independent of the translation parameters) between the common points, and then computing all the seven parameters from a solution in which the rotations and the scale factor are entered as weighted constraints according to their variances and covariances obtained in the preliminary solutions. Numerical tests involving two geodetic reference systems were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of this approach.

Kumar, M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Application of a parameter identification technique to a hingeless helicopter rotor

A mathematical model of a gyro-controlled, three-bladed hingeless helicopter rotor was developed and parameters of the model were estimated using a parameter identification technique. The flapping and feathering degrees of freedom of the blades were modeled. The equations of the model contain time-varying, periodic coefficients due to the forward speed of the rotor. A digital simulation of the analytical model was compared with wind-tunnel measurements to establish the validity of the model. Comparisons of steady-state and transient solutions of the analytical model with the tunnel measurements gave reasonably good matching of gyro angle but less satisfactory matching of hub moment measurements. Further improvements were obtained by use of a parameter identification technique to adjust as many as 10 parameters of the analytical model. The sensitivity of the blade response to small changes in the parameters was also calculated.

Kanning, G.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A method for measuring precipitation parameters and raindrop size distributions using radar reflectivity and optical extinction

A method of determining precipitation parameters from two remotely measurable quantities, the radar reflectivity factor and the optical extinction, is described. The raindrop size spectrum is approximated by a two-parameter exponential form; when these parameters are evaluated in terms of the radar reflectivity factor and the optical extinction, an exponential spectrum is obtained that is generally in very good agreement with the observed size spectrum. Other calculated precipitation parameters, such as rainfall rate and liquid water content, which are derived from the exponential approximation, also agree with experimental data. It is indicated that other combinations of two remote measurables can also be used to obtain more accurate estimates of precipitation parameters than can be obtained by the use of an empirical relationship.

Ulbrich, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The rain parameter diagram - Methods and applications

A rain parameter diagram is presented which displays the relationships between all rainfall parameters defined in terms of an exponential drop size distribution. Special emphasis is given to remotely measurable quantities such as radar reflectivity, microwave attenuation, and optical extinction. Although an exponential distribution is used to construct the diagram, it is shown to have general application for arbitrary size distributions and for a wide variety of rainfall-related problems. Some of the problems are: analysis of the sources of error which result from the use of empirical rainfall relations; depiction of the physical differences between different types of rainfall and of the similarity between all empirical relations which apply to the same type of rainfall; and determination of the accuracy with which remote measurements must be made to obtain accurate rain parameters. A set of overlays is shown for four common radar wavelengths and four temperatures which display the relationships between microwave attenuation and the other rainfall parameters. These diagrams can be used to determine rainfall parameters remotely in dual-measurement techniques.

Ulbrich, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Design of control systems with uncertain parameters

A design method for control systems with uncertain parameters is presented. The method utilizes a generalized sensitivity approach which separates the parameter space into regions which produce a system response that satisfies given design criteria and regions which do not. Nonparametric statistics and confidence limits for the binomial distribution are used to determine degree of parameter sensitivity and to locate regions in the parameter space which maximize the probability of producing a desirable system response. In an example it is shown that a given parameter may have to be known to a lesser degree of uncertainty to be able to specify a satisfactory design.

Auslander, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A simulation-based approach to the design of control systems with uncertain parameters

Auslander, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Development of a multiple-parameter nonlinear perturbation procedure for transonic turbomachinery flows: Preliminary application to design/optimization problems

An investigation was conducted to continue the development of perturbation procedures and associated computational codes for rapidly determining approximations to nonlinear flow solutions, with the purpose of establishing a method for minimizing computational requirements associated with parametric design studies of transonic flows in turbomachines. The results reported here concern the extension of the previously developed successful method for single parameter perturbations to simultaneous multiple-parameter perturbations, and the preliminary application of the multiple-parameter procedure in combination with an optimization method to blade design/optimization problem. In order to provide as severe a test as possible of the method, attention is focused in particular on transonic flows which are highly supercritical. Flows past both isolated blades and compressor cascades, involving simultaneous changes in both flow and geometric parameters, are considered. Comparisons with the corresponding exact nonlinear solutions display remarkable accuracy and range of validity, in direct correspondence with previous results for single-parameter perturbations.

Stahara, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques, volume 1

The mathematical developments and their computer program implementation for the Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation project are summarized. The estimation approach chosen is the extended Kalman filtering with a modified Bryson-Frazier smoother. Its use here is motivated by the objective of obtaining better estimates than those available from filtering and to eliminate the lag associated with filtering. The estimation technique uses as the dynamical process the six degree equations-of-motion resulting in twelve state vector elements. In addition to these are mass and solid propellant burn depth as the ""system'' state elements. The ""parameter'' state elements can include aerodynamic coefficient, inertia, center-of-gravity, atmospheric wind, etc. deviations from referenced values. Propulsion parameter state elements have been included not as options just discussed but as the main parameter states to be estimated. The mathematical developments were completed for all these parameters. Since the systems dynamics and measurement processes are non-linear functions of the states, the mathematical developments are taken up almost entirely by the linearization of these equations as required by the estimation algorithms.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

A design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty

In the present design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty, a generalized sensitivity analysis is incorporated which employs parameter space sampling and statistical inference. For the case of a system with j adjustable and k nonadjustable parameters, this methodology (which includes an adaptive random search strategy) is used to determine the combination of j adjustable parameter values which maximize the probability of those performance indices which simultaneously satisfy design criteria in spite of the uncertainty due to k nonadjustable parameters.

Young, G. E.↗