Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “negative feedback”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Soil Temperature and Moisture, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, beginning 2016

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights located at Intensive Monitoring Stations at Kougarok Road Mile Marker 64 site. Data are retrieved annually since 2016. Package contains 46 *.CSV files including a file inventory list by year. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Flexible Microsensor Array for the Root Zone Monitoring of Porous Tube Plant Growth System

Control of oxygen and water in the root zone is vital to support plant growth in the microgravity environment. The ability to control these sometimes opposing parameters in the root zone is dependent upon the availability of sensors to detect these elements and provide feedback for control systems. In the present study we demonstrate the feasibility of using microsensor arrays on a flexible substrate for dissolved oxygen detection, and a 4-point impedance microprobe for surface wetness detection on the surface of a porous tube (PT) nutrient delivery system. The oxygen microsensor reported surface oxygen concentrations that correlated with the oxygen concentrations of the solution inside the PT when operated at positive pressures. At negative pressures the microsensor shows convergence to zero saturation (2.2 micro mol/L) values due to inadequate water film formation on porous tube surface. The 4-point microprobe is useful as a wetness detector as it provides a clear differentiation between dry and wet surfaces. The unique features of the dissolved oxygen microsensor array and 4-point microprobe include small and simple design, flexibility and multipoint sensing. The demonstrated technology is anticipated to provide low cost, and highly reliable sensor feedback monitoring plant growth nutrient delivery system in both terrestrial and microgravity environments.

Sathyan, Sandeep↗
NASA NTRS1994

Climatic consequences of observed ozone loss in the 1980s: Relevance to the greenhouse problem

Recently published findings using satellite and ground-based observations indicate a large winter and summertime decrease in the column abundance of ozone at high and middle latitudes during the last decade. Using a simple ozone depletion profile reflecting the observed decrease in ozone column abundance, Ramaswamy et al. (1992) showed that the negative radiative forcing that results from the ozone decrease between 1979 and 1990 approximately balanced the greenhouse climate forcing due to the chlorofluorocarbons emitted during the same period. Here, we extend the forcing analyses by calculating the equilibrium surface temperature response explicitly, using an updated version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research two-dimensional radiative-dynamical seasonal model. The calculated steady state responses suggest that the surface cooling due to the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere offsets about 30% of the surface warming due to greenhouse gases emitted during the same decade. The temperature offset is roughly a factor of 2 larger than the corresponding offset obtained from forcing intercomparisons. This result appears to be related to the climate feedback mechanisms operating in the model troposphere, most notably that associated with atmospheric meridional heat transport. Thus a comprehensive assessment of ozone change effects on the predicted greenhouse warming cannot be accomplished based on forcing evaluations alone. Our results also show that calculations adopting a seasonally and latitudinally dependent ozone depletion profile produce a negative forcing about 50% smaller than that calculated for the depletion profile used by Ramaswamy et al. (1992).

Molnar, G. I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil Temperature and Moisture, Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, beginning 2016

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights, as well as daily averages of hourly measured snow depths located at Intensive Monitoring Stations at Council Road Mile Marker 71 site. Deployed at each site is an Onset HOBO U30 data logger with five smart temperature sensors and three smart soil moisture sensors (10HS). Three sites (CN_IS_4, CN_IS_6A, CN_IS_7) are equipped with a snow depth sensor. Data are retrieved annually since 2016. Contains 53 *.CSV files including a file inventory list by year. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effects of clouds on CO2 forcing

The cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is the difference between the radiative flux (at the top of the atmosphere) which actually occurs in the presence of clouds, and that which would occur if the clouds were removed but the atmospheric state were otherwise unchanged. The CO2 forcing is defined, in analogy with the cloud forcing, as the difference in fluxes and/or infrared heating rates obtained by instantaneously changing CO2 concentration (doubling it) without changing anything else, i.e., without allowing any feedback. An increased CO2 concentration leads to a reduced net upward longwave flux at the Earth's surface. This induced net upward flux is due to an increased downward emission by the CO2 in the atmosphere above. The negative increment to the net upward flux becomes more intense at higher levels in the troposphere, reaching a peak intensity roughly at the tropopause. It then weakens with height in the stratosphere. This profile implies a warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere. The CSU GCM was recently used to make some preliminary CO2 forcing calculations, for a single simulated, for July conditions. The longwave radiation routine was called twice, to determine the radiative fluxes and heating rates for both 2 x CO2 and 1 x CO2. As diagnostics, the 2-D distributions of the longwave fluxes at the surface and the top of atmosphere, as well as the 3-D distribution of the longwave cooling in the interior was saved. In addition, the pressure was saved (near the tropopause) where the difference in the longwave flux due to CO2 doubling has its largest magnitude. For convenience, this level is referred to as the CO2 tropopause. The actual difference in the flux at that level was also saved. Finally, all of these fields were duplicated for the hypothetical case of no cloudiness (clear sky), so that the effects of the clouds can be isolated.

Randall, David A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

Abstract The East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Phytochromes A and B mediate red-light-induced positive phototropism in roots

The interaction of tropisms is important in determining the final growth form of the plant body. In roots, gravitropism is the predominant tropistic response, but phototropism also plays a role in the oriented growth of roots in flowering plants. In blue or white light, roots exhibit negative phototropism that is mediated by the phototropin family of photoreceptors. In contrast, red light induces a positive phototropism in Arabidopsis roots. Because this red-light-induced response is weak relative to both gravitropism and negative phototropism, we used a novel device to study phototropism without the complications of a counteracting gravitational stimulus. This device is based on a computer-controlled system using real-time image analysis of root growth and a feedback-regulated rotatable stage. Our data show that this system is useful to study root phototropism in response to red light, because in wild-type roots, the maximal curvature detected with this apparatus is 30 degrees to 40 degrees, compared with 5 degrees to 10 degrees without the feedback system. In positive root phototropism, sensing of red light occurs in the root itself and is not dependent on shoot-derived signals resulting from light perception. Phytochrome (Phy)A and phyB were severely impaired in red-light-induced phototropism, whereas the phyD and phyE mutants were normal in this response. Thus, PHYA and PHYB play a key role in mediating red-light-dependent positive phototropism in roots. Although phytochrome has been shown to mediate phototropism in some lower plant groups, this is one of the few reports indicating a phytochrome-dependent phototropism in flowering plants.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled neutronic-thermal-hydraulic simulations of the European SFR core

Within the European SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor) - Safety Measures Assessment and Research Tools (ESFR-SMART) project, steady-state coupled simulation of the ESFR core has been performed using several core analysis packages, with the objective of quantifying the coupling effect. Focus is on the fuel Doppler effect and coolant expansion effect. Standalone neutronics calculations in TRACE/PARCS (PSI), DYN3D (HZDR) and WIMS (Jacobs) showed superb agreement with the reference Serpent power distribution (root mean square - rms discrepancies of 1.3%, 1.5% and 0.7% respectively). Results for COUNTHER (CIEMAT) were also in reasonable agreement, but with a somewhat higher discrepancy of 3.7%. Temperature distributions from thermal-hydraulic calculations were also compared and are found to be in good agreement. The effect of Doppler and coolant density feedback on core power distribution was predicted by TRACE/PARCS, DYN3D and WIMS to be between 0.4% and 0.8% rms difference in assembly powers. Reactivity coefficients for perturbations in the inlet temperature, flow rate and core power were shown to be negative for these three codes, with values of roughly -0.5 pcm/C. degree, -0.3 pcm/C. degree and -3.5 pcm/C. degree respectively. A preliminary investigation of differential thermal expansion effects indicates that this may have a significant effect on core power distribution of a few %, greater than anticipated a priori and may warrant inclusion in coupled core analysis to ensure the accurate calculation of power distributions. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Unprecedented Atmospheric Conditions (1948–2019) Drive the 2019 Exceptional Melting Season Over the Greenland Ice Sheet

Understanding the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is fundamental for improving estimates of its current and future contributions to sea level rise. Here, we show, using a combination of remote sensing observations, regional climate model outputs, reanalysis data, and artificial neural networks, that unprecedented atmospheric conditions (1948–2019) occurring in the summer of 2019 over Greenland promoted new record or close-to-record values of surface mass balance (SMB), runoff, and snowfall. Specifically, runoff in 2019 ranked second within the 1948–2019 period (after 2012) and first in terms of surface mass balance negative anomaly for the hydrological year 1 September 2018–31 August 2019. The summer of 2019 was characterized by an exceptional persistence of anticyclonic conditions that, in conjunction with low albedo associated with reduced snowfall in summer, enhanced the melt–albedo feedback by promoting the absorption of solar radiation and favored advection of warm, moist air along the western portion of the ice sheet towards the north, where the surface melt has been the highest since 1948. The analysis of the frequency of daily 500 hPa geopotential heights obtained from artificial neural networks shows that the total number of days with the five most frequent atmospheric patterns that characterized the summer of 2019 was 5 standard deviations above the 1981–2010 mean, confirming the exceptional nature of the 2019 season over Greenland.

Greenland ice sheet↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks in the context of the global circulation and hydrological cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback ($SW_{FB}$) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs participating in the sixth assessment report exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical $SW_{FB}$’s that are more positive than those simulated in the previous generation of GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$ can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. In this work, the response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean $SW_{FB}$— inconsistent with extreme ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

A stability theorem for energy-balance climate models

The paper treats the stability of steady-state solutions of some simple, latitude-dependent, energy-balance climate models. For north-south symmetric solutions of models with an ice-cap-type albedo feedback, and for the sum of horizontal transport and infrared radiation given by a linear operator, it is possible to prove a 'slope stability' theorem, i.e., if the local slope of the steady-state iceline latitude versus solar constant curve is positive (negative) the steady-state solution is stable (unstable). Certain rather weak restrictions on the albedo function and on the heat transport are required for the proof, and their physical basis is discussed.

Cahalan, R. F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating the Subjective Straight Ahead Before and After Spaceflight

Introduction. This joint European Space Agency/NASA pre- and post-flight study investigates the influence of exposure to microgravity on the subjective straight ahead (SSA) in crewmembers returning from long-duration expeditions to the International Space Station (ISS). The SSA is a measure of the internal representation of body orientation and to be influenced by stimulation of sensory systems involved in postural control. The use of a vibrotactile sensory aid to correct the representation of body tilted relative to gravity is also tested as a countermeasure. This study addresses the sensorimotor research gap to "determine the changes in sensorimotor function over the course of a mission and during recovery after landing." Research Plans. The ISS study will involve eight crewmembers who will participate in three pre-flight sessions (between 120 and 60 days before launch) and then three post-flight sessions on R plus 0/1 day, R plus 4 days, and R plus 8 days. Sixteen control subjects were also tested during three sessions to evaluate the effects of repeated testing and to establish normative values. The experimental protocol includes measurements of gaze and arm movements during the following tasks: (1) Near & Far Fixation: The subject is asked to look at actual targets in the true straight-ahead direction or to imagine these targets in the dark. Targets are located at near distance (arm's length) and far distance (beyond 2 meters). This task is successively performed with the subject's body aligned with the gravitational vertical, and with the subject's body tilted in pitch relative to the gravitational vertical using a tilt chair. Measures are then compared with and without a vibrotactile sensory aid that indicates how far one has tilted relative to the vertical; (2) Eye and Arm Movements: The subject is asked to look and point in the SSA direction in darkness and then make horizontal and vertical eye or arm movements, relative to Earth coordinates (allocentric) and to the subject's head/body reference (egocentric). This task is successively performed with the subject's body aligned with the gravitational vertical, and with subject's body tilted in roll using a tilt chair; (3) Linear Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex: The subject is asked to fixate actual visual targets at near and far distances in the true straight-ahead direction, and to evaluate the distance of these targets. The subject is asked to continue fixating the same imagined targets in darkness while he/she is passively accelerated up and down on a spring-loaded vertical linear accelerator. Results. In the control subject population, the perceived tilt angles, translations, and distances were remarkably close to the actual values. The pointing tasks indicated that the orientation of arm saccades was influenced by both the gravitational vertical and the body idiotropic vector. Repeating the testing did not reveal any significant changes. Preliminary results obtained in three crewmembers before and after flight will also be presented. Applications. A change in an individual's egocentric reference might have negative consequences on evaluating the direction of an approaching object or on the accuracy of reaching movements or locomotion. Consequently, investigating how microgravity affects the target location will have theoretical, operational, and even clinical implications for future space exploration missions. The use of vibrotactile feedback as a sensorimotor countermeasure is applicable to balance therapy applications for patients with vestibular loss and the elderly to mitigate risks due to loss of spatial orientation.

Campbell, D. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Water Balance Representation in Urban‐PLUMBER Land Surface Models

Abstract Urban Land Surface Models (ULSMs) simulate energy and water exchanges between the urban surface and atmosphere. However, earlier systematic ULSM comparison projects assessed the energy balance but ignored the water balance, which is coupled to the energy balance. Here, we analyze the water balance representation in 19 ULSMs participating in the Urban‐PLUMBER project using results for 20 sites spread across a range of climates and urban form characteristics. As observations for most water fluxes are unavailable, we examine the water balance closure, flux timing, and magnitude with a score derived from seven indicators expecting better scoring models to capture the latent heat flux more accurately. We find that the water budget is only closed in 57% of the model‐site combinations assuming closure when annual total incoming fluxes (precipitation and irrigation) fluxes are within 3% of the outgoing (all other) fluxes. Results show the timing is better captured than magnitude. No ULSM has passed all water balance indicators for any site. Models passing more indicators do not capture the latent heat flux more accurately refuting our hypothesis. While output reporting inconsistencies may have negatively affected model performance, our results indicate models could be improved by explicitly verifying water balance closure and revising runoff parameterizations. By expanding ULSM evaluation to the water balance and related to latent heat flux performance, we demonstrate the benefits of evaluating processes with direct feedback mechanisms to the processes of interest.

Jongen, H. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying airborne fraction trends and the destination of anthropogenic CO 2 by tracking carbon flows in a simple climate model

Abstract Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations have increased as a direct result of human activity and are at their highest level over the last 2 million years, with profound impacts on the Earth system. However, the magnitude and future dynamics of land and ocean carbon sinks are not well understood; therefore, the amount of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions that remain in the atmosphere (the airborne fraction) is poorly constrained. This work aims to quantify the sources and controls of atmospheric CO 2 , the fate of anthropogenic CO 2 over time, and the likelihood of a trend in the airborne fraction. We use Hector v3.0, a coupled simple climate and carbon cycle model with the novel ability to explicitly track carbon as it flows through the Earth system. We use key model parameters in a Monte Carlo analysis of 15 000 model runs from 1750 to 2300. Results are filtered for physical realism against historical observations and CMIP6 projection data, and we calculate the relative importance of parameters controlling how much anthropogenic carbon ends up in the atmosphere. Modeled airborne fraction was roughly 52%, consistent with observational studies. The overwhelming majority of model runs exhibited a negative trend in the airborne fraction from 1960–2020, implying that current-day land and ocean sinks are proportionally taking up more carbon than the atmosphere. However, the percentage of atmospheric CO 2 derived from anthropogenic origins can be much higher because of Earth system feedbacks. We find it peaks at over 90% between 2010–2050. Moreover, when looking at the destination of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions, only a quarter ends up in the atmosphere while more than half of emissions are taken up by the land sink on centennial timescales. This study evaluates the likelihood of airborne fraction trends and provides insights into the dynamics of anthropogenic CO 2 in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Crystal oscillators using negative voltage gain, single pole response amplifiers

A simple and inexpensive crystal oscillator is provided which employs negative voltage gain, single pole response amplifiers. The amplifiers may include such configurations as gate inverters, operational amplifiers and conventional bipolar transistor amplifiers, all of which operate at a frequency which is on the roll-off portion of their gain versus frequency curve. Several amplifier feedback circuit variations are employed to set desired bias levels and to allow the oscillator to operate at the crystal's fundamental frequency or at an overtone of the fundamental frequency. The oscillator is made less expensive than comparable oscillators by employing relatively low frequency amplifiers and operating them at roll-off, at frequencies beyond which they are customarily used. Simplicity is provided because operation at roll-off eliminates components ordinarily required in similar circuits to provide sufficient phase-shift in the feedback circuitry for oscillation to occur.

Kleinberg, Leonard L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. VIII. Disk Formation and Evolution of Simulated Milky Way Mass Galaxy Progenitors at 1 < z < 5

We investigate how differences in the stellar feedback produce disks with different morphologies in Milky Way–like progenitors over 1 ≤ z ≤ 5, using eight state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamics simulation codes in the AGORA project. In three of the participating codes, a distinct, rotation-dominated inner core emerges with a formation timescale of ≲300 Myr, largely driven by a major merger event, while two other codes exhibit similar signs of wet compaction—gaseous shrinkage into a compact starburst phase—at earlier epochs. The remaining three codes show only weak evidence of wet compaction. Consequently, we divide the simulated galaxies into two groups: those with strong compaction signatures and those with weaker ones. Galaxies in these two groups differ in size, stellar age gradients, and disk-to-total mass ratios. Specifically, codes with strong wet compaction build their outer disks in an inside-out fashion, leading to negative age gradients, whereas codes with weaker compaction feature flat or positive age gradients caused primarily by outward stellar migration. Although the stellar half-mass radii of these two groups diverge at z ∼ 3, the inclusion of dust extinction brings their sizes and shapes in mock observations closer to each other and to observed galaxies. We attribute the observed morphological differences primarily to variations in the stellar feedback implementations—such as delayed cooling timescales, and feedback strengths—that regulate both the onset and duration of compaction. Overall, our results suggest that disk assembly at high redshifts is highly sensitive to the details of the stellar feedback prescriptions in simulations.

Jung, Minyong [Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republ↗
NASA NTRS2022

Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.

extratropical cloud response↗