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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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324 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Geometric frustration in the myosin superlattice of vertebrate muscle

Geometric frustration results from an incompatibility between minimum energy arrangements and the geometry of a system, and gives rise to interesting and novel phenomena. Here, we report geometric frustration in a native biological macromolecular system---vertebrate muscle. We analyse the disorder in the myosin filament rotations in the myofibrils of vertebrate striated (skeletal and cardiac) muscle, as seen in thin-section electron micrographs, and show that the distribution of rotations corresponds to an archetypical geometrically frustrated system---the triangular Ising antiferromagnet. Spatial correlations are evident out to at least six lattice spacings. The results demonstrate that geometric frustration can drive the development of structure in complex biological systems, and may have implications for the nature of the actin--myosin interactions involved in muscle contraction. Identification of the distribution of myosin filament rotations with an Ising model allows the extensive results on the latter to be applied to this system. It shows how local interactions (between adjacent myosin filaments) can determine long-range order and, conversely, how observations of long-range order (such as patterns seen in electron micrographs) can be used to estimate the energetics of these local interactions. Furthermore, since diffraction by a disordered system is a function of the second-order statistics, the derived correlations allow more accurate diffraction calculations, which can aid in interpretation of X-ray diffraction data from muscle specimens for structural analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unified Language Frontend for Physic-Informed AI/ML

Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are becoming important tools for scientific modeling and simulation as in several other fields such as image analysis and natural language processing. ML techniques can leverage the computing power available in modern systems and reduce the human effort needed to configure experiments, interpret and visualize results, draw conclusions from huge quantities of raw data, and build surrogates for physics based models. Domain scientists in fields like fluid dynamics, microelectronics and chemistry can automate many of their most difficult and repetitive tasks or improve the design times by use of the faster ML-surrogates. However, modern ML and traditional scientific highperformance computing (HPC) tend to use completely different software ecosystems. While ML frameworks like PyTorch and TensorFlow provide Python APIs, most HPC applications and libraries are written in C++. Direct interoperability between the two languages is possible but is tedious and error-prone. In this work, we show that a compiler-based approach can bridge the gap between ML frameworks and scientific software with less developer effort and better efficiency. We use the MLIR (multi-level intermediate representation) ecosystem to compile a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) in PyTorch to freestanding C++ source code in the Kokkos programming model. Kokkos is a programming model widely used in HPC to write portable, shared-memory parallel code that can natively target a variety of CPU and GPU architectures. Our compiler-generated source code can be directly integrated into any Kokkosbased application with no dependencies on Python or cross-language interfaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Studying CPU and memory utilization of applications on Fujitsu A64FX and Nvidia Grace Superchip

ARM-based manycore CPU architectures are well-positioned to provide the rising memory throughput requirements of modern data intensive scientific applications in High Performance Computing (HPC). The Fujitsu A64FX CPU platform is based on the ARM v8.2A architecture, and is the processor of the flagship Japanese supercomputer - "Fugaku", which was previously ranked as the #1 supercomputer in the world according to the Top500 list. The Nvidia Grace superchip features 144 Neoverse V2 cores based on the ARMv9 architecture with 4x128b SVE2, providing exceptional computational power. The chip supports up to 480GB of memory, making it ideal for AI, machine learning, and scientific computing workloads. In this paper, we conduct a thorough performance exploration of a variety of parallel bandwidth-sensitive benchmarks and applications compiled with the native Fujitsu compiler on a Fugaku A64FX compute node and ARM (LLVM) Compiler on an NVIDIA Grace superchip compute node, engaging all the computational cores per cluster using OpenMP multithreading (assuming the cores can drive the available bandwidth). Our ultimate goals are to study the resource utilization of scientific applications and benchmarks on A64FX and Grace superchip, considering graph application scenarios ( GAP Benchmark suite) and eleven appli- cation proxies from the Rodinia heterogeneous benchmark suite (considering domains such as Data Mining, Bioinformatics, Fluid Dynamics, Pattern Recognition, etc.). Through exhaustive performance monitoring, we quantify the resource utilization of diverse OpenMP-based HPC applications on both the Fujitsu A64FX and the Nvidia Grace Superchip platforms.

benchmarking, Performance Analysis, High performan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intact mass spectrometry screening to optimize hydroxyl radical dose for protein footprinting

Hydroxyl radical protein footprinting (HRPF) using synchrotron radiation is a well-validated method to assess protein structure in the native solution state. In this method, X-ray radiolysis of water generates hydroxyl radicals that can react with solvent accessible side chains of proteins, with mass spectrometry used to detect the resulting labeled products. An ideal footprinting dose provides sufficient labeling to measure the structure but not so much as to influence the results. The optimization of hydroxyl radical dose is typically performed using an indirect Alexa488 fluorescence assay sensitive to hydroxyl radical concentration, but full evaluation of the experiment's outcome relies upon bottom-up liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS) measurements to directly determine sites and extent of oxidative labeling at the peptide and protein level. A direct evaluation of the extent of labeling to provide direct and absolute measurements of dose and “safe” dose ranges in terms of, for example, average numbers of labels per protein, would provide immediate feedback on experimental outcomes prior to embarking on detailed LC-MS analyses. To this end, we describe an approach to integrate intact MS screening of labeled samples immediately following exposure, along with metrics to quantify the extent of observed labeling from the intact mass spectra. Intact MS results on the model protein lysozyme were evaluated in the context of Alexa488 assay results and a bottom-up LC-MS analysis of the same samples. In conclusion, this approach provides a basis for placing delivered hydroxyl radical dose metrics on firmer technical grounds for synchrotron X-ray footprinting of proteins, with explicit parameters to increase the likelihood of a productive experimental outcome. Further, the method directs approaches to provide absolute and direct dosimetry for all types of labeling for protein footprinting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Delayed leaf greening involves a major shift in the expression of cytosolic and mitochondrial ribosomes to plastid ribosomes in the highly phosphorus-use-efficient Hakea prostrata (Proteaceae)

Abstract Background and aims Hakea prostrata (Proteaceae) is a highly phosphorus-use-efficient plant native to southwest Australia. It maintains a high photosynthetic rate at low leaf phosphorus (P) and exhibits delayed leaf greening, a convergent adaptation that increases nutrient-use efficiency. This study aimed to provide broad physiological and gene expression profiles across leaf development, uncovering pathways leading from young leaves as nutrient sinks to mature leaves as low-nutrient, energy-transducing sources. Methods To explore gene expression underlying delayed greening, we analysed a de novo transcriptome for H. prostrata across five stages of leaf development. Photosynthesis and respiration rates, and foliar pigment, P and nitrogen (N) concentrations were determined, including the division of P into five biochemical fractions. Key results Transcripts encoding functions associated with leaf structure generally decreased in abundance across leaf development, concomitant with decreases in foliar concentrations of 85% for anthocyanins, 90% for P and 70% for N. The expression of genes associated with photosynthetic function increased during or after leaf expansion, in parallel with increases in photosynthetic pigments and activity, much later in leaf development than in species that do not have delayed greening. As leaves developed, transcript abundance for cytosolic and mitochondrial ribosomal proteins generally declined, whilst transcripts for chloroplast ribosomal proteins increased. Conclusions There was a much longer temporal separation of leaf cell growth from chloroplast development in H. prostrata than is found in species that lack delayed greening. Transcriptome-guided analysis of leaf development in H. prostrata provided insight into delayed greening as a nutrient-saving strategy in severely phosphorus-impoverished landscapes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CarbStor: Development, Analysis and Modification of Carbon Storing Model Soil Communities

Soil microbial communities carry out a number of key processes including plant growth promotion, bioremediation and cycling of nutrients. Carbon cycling is among the most important of these nutrients that are metabolized and processed by the soil microbial community. Many of the carbon inputs are converted to alternative organic forms of carbon that can be used by plants or act as biomass for microbial growth. However, inorganic forms of carbon can also be produced by soil microbial communities including calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ). Production of calcium carbonate is beneficial for the ecosystem in several ways: it can stabilize soils and improve soil health, especially denser soils with high clay content, it can act as a method of bioremediation, it can serve as an alternative carbon source for plants and it can be a way to store carbon in soil in a stable, inorganic manner for the long term. While the chemistry surrounding individual species carrying out this process is well known what is lacking is an understanding of how species interact in a community to drive carbonate production. As all microbial species in soil exist in a community setting gaining this knowledge is critical to our predicting and controlling this microbial phenotype to greatly improve soil health. The CarbStor project is focused on developing, analyzing and modifying defined microbial soil consortia that express phenotypes at both the species and community level to convert carbon into recalcitrant stable sources such as precipitated carbonate or microbial necromass. To take full advantage of the soil community for this process we will need to fill several key knowledge gaps (KG), three of which are the focus of CarbStor. KG1: Whether and to what degree microbial communities can be developed that produce precipitated carbon via microbial metabolism. KG2: What interspecies interactions drive the individual member phenotypes in defined communities that lead to carbon precipitation. KG3: How can these interactions be modified to enhance carbon sequestration beyond what native communities are capable of. We hypothesize that in a carbon sequestering community only a subset of species will express phenotypes related to carbon storage processes. We also hypothesize that these phenotypes are expressed as a result of interactions with other species in the community that are not involved in carbon storage processes and that these interactions can be harnessed to enhance community carbon sequestration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural analysis of extracellular ATP-independent chaperones of streptococcal species and protein substrate interactions

ABSTRACT During infection, bacterial pathogens rely on secreted virulence factors to manipulate the host cell. However, in gram-positive bacteria, the molecular mechanisms underlying the folding and activity of these virulence factors after membrane translocation are not clear. Here, we solved the protein structures of two secreted parvulin and two secreted cyclophilin-like peptidyl-prolyl isomerase (PPIase) ATP-independent chaperones found in gram-positive streptococcal species. The extracellular parvulin-type PPIase, PrsA inStreptococcus pneumoniaeandStreptococcus mutansmaintain dimeric crystal structures reminiscent of folding catalysts that consist of two domains, a PPIase and foldase domain. Structural comparison of the two cyclophilin-like extracellular chaperones fromS. pneumoniaeandStreptococcus pyogeneswith other cyclophilins demonstrates that this group of cyclophilin-like chaperones has novel structural appendages formed by 9- and 24-residue insertions. Furthermore, we demonstrate that deletion ofprsAandslrAgenes impairs the secretion of the cholesterol-dependent pore-forming toxin, pneumolysin inS. pneumoniae. Using protein pull-down and biophysical assays, we demonstrate a direct interaction between PrsA and SlrA with Ply. Then, we developed chaperone-assisted folding assays that show that theS. pneumoniaePrsA and SlrA extracellular chaperones accelerate pneumolysin folding. In addition, we demonstrate that SlrA and, for the first time,S. pyogenes PpiA exhibit PPIase activity and can bind the immunosuppressive drug, cyclosporine A. Altogether, these findings suggest a mechanistic role for streptococcal PPIase chaperones in the activity and folding of secreted virulence factors such as pneumolysin. IMPORTANCE Streptococcal species are a leading cause of lower respiratory infections that annually affect millions of people worldwide. During infection, streptococcal species secrete a medley of virulence factors that allow the bacteria to colonize and translocate to deeper tissues. In many gram-positive bacteria, virulence factors are secreted from the cytosol across the bacterial membrane in an unfolded state. The bacterial membrane-cell wall interface is exposed to the potentially harsh extracellular environment, making it difficult for native virulence factors to fold before being released into the host. ATP-independent PPIase-type chaperones, PrsA and SlrA, are thought to facilitate folding and stabilization of several unfolded proteins to promote the colonization and spread of streptococci. Here, we present crystal structures of the molecular chaperones of PrsA and SlrA homologs from streptococcal species. We provide evidence that theStreptococcus pyogenesSlrA homolog, PpiA, has PPIase activity and binds to cyclosporine A. In addition, we show thatStreptococcus pneumoniaePrsA and SlrA directly interact and fold the cholesterol-dependent pore-forming toxin and critical virulence determinant, pneumolysin.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Small-Signal Stability Support from Dynamically Configurable Grid-Forming/Following Inverters for Distribution Systems

The growth of inverter-based resources (IBRs) in modern power systems can challenge system stability since they do not natively provide inertia, prompting a need to develop new methods to address the potential instabilities. In this paper, a dynamically configurable grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) control is proposed, which enables inverters to flexibly transition to support system needs. The operation mode transition between GFM and GFL controls is adopted as an additional degree of control flexibility to adjust the small-signal stability margin. In addition, a holistic and detailed small-signal model for a distribution feeder that captures the dynamics from both synchronous generators (SGs) and IBRs is also derived and used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed GFM/GFL controls to augment the system small-signal stability margin. Case studies with varying levels of IBRs were implemented in MATLAB/Simulink to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

grid-following control↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska: Advancing Clean, Resilient, and Sovereign Energy (Summary Report of Communities LEAP Activities)

The Iowa Tribe of Kansas and Nebraska (ITKN) is a federally recognized Native American Tribe located along the Missouri River on the border of northeast Kansas and southeastern Nebraska. There are over 800 residents (Tribal citizens and non-Tribal) who live on the reservation, as well as more than 500 people who visit or work on the reservation on a daily basis. The ITKN faces many energy challenges, including rising service costs and dozens of power outages annually that impact resident well-being and business activities on Tribal lands. Power service issues are made more challenging by the remoteness of the reservation, which is 20 miles from the nearest town. Despite this, the ITKN has a long history of cultural and economic resilience: Local self-reliance, environmental stewardship, respecting the carrying capacity of the land, and strengthening the community are Tribal communities' traditional strengths. Long-term energy goals for the ITKN are centered around achieving energy sovereignty. Priority actions include: (1) Establishing a Tribal Utility Authority (TUA) to promote social welfare and community development.; (2) Deploying renewable community microgrids with ground-mount solar arrays and sustainable energy storage systems to advance energy sovereignty, resilience, and reliability. To advance these goals, the ITKN partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) pilot. From August 2022 to March 2024, the ITKN community coalition collaborated with technical assistance providers at DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories to evaluate TUA planning needs and microgrid deployment scenarios. This final report details the Communities LEAP technical assistance process, models and analysis performed, and results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design, Construction, and Field Validation of a Blown-In Fiberglass Wall System in a Cold, Wet, and Windy Climate

In the Native Village of Tununak, located on Nelson Island in Southwest Alaska,buildings are exposed to wind-driven rain and snow throughout the year. The Cold Climate Housing Research Center (CCHRC) and Knauf Insulation partnered with the community in 2018 to design a residence for a public safety officer. Construction began in fall 2021 and is scheduled to conclude in summer 2022. The house will use integrated trusses with floor, attic, and wall cavities filled with blown-in fiberglass insulation. Hygrothermal models of the building envelope system demonstrate that the high ambient moisture load will wet the outer edges of the insulation annually regardless of the extent and integrity of exterior weather sealing measures; blown-in fiberglass is expected to be more resilient to this wetting than blown-in cellulose. To verify this, researchers will embed temperature, relative humidity, and moisture sensors in the two windward walls of the house to monitor the ability of the blown-in fiberglass insulation to dry out after wetting events that may have occurred during the transport of the insulation to the building site, storage of the insulation on site, construction process, or after installation in the wall. Sensors will remain in place for two years,documenting the wall's performance over time and verifying the design's potential for use in buildings located in climates where the chance for moisture damage is high. Here, we describe the wall system , design criteria, and the results from the hygrothermal modeling. We share details on the monitoring system's components and the planned management and analysis of data. Finally, we explain how the experiences and data from this project will inform future builds in similar locations.

building design↗
DOE OSTI2024

Liquid Interfacial Electron Microscopy Identifies Nanogalvanic Corrosion in Pearlitic Steel

The nanoscale mechanisms of localized corrosion in low carbon steels have remained elusive due to the complexity of studying the degradative material behavior at nanoscale solid-liquid interfaces. We identified various steps in the nanogalvanic corrosion processes using in-situ liquid-cell scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) using a microfluidic holder by Hummingbird Scientific. Initial work, performed at low magnification, identified the initiation point on a 1018 low-carbon steel surface. This initiation point was determined to be a triple junction of two ferrite grains bridging a cementite grain in contact with a baseline electrolyte of 6 uM CO2 dissolved in a buffered (2.78 uM Na2SO4) aqueous solution, pH 6.1. The pre-etched low-carbon steel surface was prepared using focused ion beam lift-out procedures to extract a cross-section of the low-carbon steel surface, which then was thinned to about 150 nm and transferred to a SiN membrane microfluidic window. The transfer was made using a lift-out needle to attach the low-carbon steel lamella to the corner of the SiN window, and then Pt/C deposition held the lamella in contact with the window while it was released from the lift out needle. To identify the triple point on the low carbon steel lamella, prior to attachment on the SiN window, the sample was characterized for compositional variations with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy mapping, grain orientation and phase mapping with precession electron diffraction, and thickness mapping with energy filtered transmission electron microscopy. This pre-characterization prior to the in-situ experiment provided a map of the multiphase and multigrain structure, where the in-situ liquid cell imaging provided a clear understanding of the initiation point on the sample. These data were cross-correlated to paint a holistic picture of the triple junction site, enabling low electron-fluence in-situ snapshot imaging to avoid dominating the native corrosion reactions with effects from the incident electron beam. This initial result identified that localized, nanogalvanic corrosion at the phase interface was the dominant corrosion process in the low-carbon steel, so we next targeted the observation of an array of these nanogalvanic features phase boundaries in a pearlite grain. Near-surface ferrite/cementite phase interfaces that typify pearlitic low-carbon steel were extracted, pre-characterized, and imaged for the in-situ corrosion processes. The sample was a cross-section from a pearlite grain, with alternating ferrite and cementite grains that extended microns down from the pre-etched low-carbon steel pipe surface. After contact with a buffered aqueous solution, the phase boundaries between the ferrite and cementite began to dissolve, with observable material loss and thickness changes in the dark-field and bright-field STEM images. Within minutes, the corrosion front proceeded deeper into the material, claiming a thin layer of ferrite around all exposed phase boundaries before progressing laterally into the ferrite matrix, converting the ferrite to corrosion product normal to each buried cementite grain. Formation of the corrosion product causes a volumetric expansion, creating a lateral wedging force that mechanically ejects the cementite grains from their grooves and leaves behind percolation channels into the steel substructure. Rapid and deleterious, this nanogalvanic corrosion pathway represents an important target for understanding and preventing run-away degradation in this common building material. Observation of this corrosion mechanism was enabled by the combination of pre-characterization using standard structural, grain, and compositional analysis in the TEM, which provides maps for understanding the reaction propagation captured in low-dose, in-situ, liquid-cell STEM.

corrosion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Growth Kinetics, Interspecies Cell Fusion, and Metabolism of a Clostridium acetobutylicum / Clostridium ljungdahlii Syntrophic Coculture

ABSTRACT Clostridium acetobutylicum and Clostridium ljungdahlii grown in a syntrophic culture were recently shown to fuse membranes and exchange cytosolic contents, yielding hybrid cells with significant shifts in gene expression and growth phenotypes. Here, we introduce a dynamic genome-scale metabolic modeling framework to explore how cell fusion alters the growth phenotype and panel of metabolites produced by this binary community. Computational results indicate C. ljungdahlii persists in the coculture through proteome exchange during fusing events, which endow C. ljungdahlii cells with expanded substrate utilization, and access to additional reducing equivalents from C. acetobutylicum -evolved H 2 and through acquisition of C. acetobutylicum -native cofactor-reducing enzymes. Simulations predict maximum theoretical ethanol and isopropanol yields that are increased by 0.64 mmol and 0.39 mmol per mmol hexose sugar consumed, respectively, during exponential growth when cell fusion is active. This modeling effort provides a mechanistic explanation for the metabolic outcome of cellular fusion and altered homeostasis achieved in this syntrophic clostridial community. IMPORTANCE Widespread cell fusion and protein exchange between microbial organisms as observed in synthetic C. acetobutylicum / C. ljungdahlii culture is a novel observation that has not been explored in silico . The mechanisms responsible for the observed cell fusion events in this culture are still unknown. In this work, we develop a modeling framework that captures the observed culture composition and metabolic phenotype, use it to offer a mechanistic explanation for how the culture achieves homeostasis, and identify C. ljungdahlii as primary beneficiary of fusion events. The implications for the events described in this study are far reaching, with potential to reshape our understanding of microbial community behavior synthetically and in nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

DSPS: Differentiable stellar population synthesis

ABSTRACT Models of stellar population synthesis (SPS) are the fundamental tool that relates the physical properties of a galaxy to its spectral energy distribution (SED). In this paper, we present DSPS: a python package for SPS. All of the functionality in DSPS is implemented natively in the JAX library for automatic differentiation, and so our predictions for galaxy photometry are fully differentiable, and directly inherit the performance benefits of JAX, including portability onto GPUs. DSPS also implements several novel features, such as i) a flexible empirical model for stellar metallicity that incorporates correlations with stellar age, ii) support for the Diffstar model that provides a physically-motivated connection between the star formation history of a galaxy (SFH) and the mass assembly of its underlying dark matter halo. We detail a set of theoretical techniques for using autodiff to calculate gradients of predictions for galaxy SEDs with respect to SPS parameters that control a range of physical effects, including SFH, stellar metallicity, nebular emission, and dust attenuation. When forward modelling the colours of a synthetic galaxy population, we find that DSPS can provide a factor of 5 speed-up over standard SPS codes on a CPU, and a factor of 300-400 on a modern GPU. When coupled with gradient-based techniques for optimization and inference, DSPS makes it practical to conduct expansive likelihood analyses of simulation-based models of the galaxy–halo connection that fully forward model galaxy spectra and photometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Igiugig Site Visit Report

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team conducted a site visit during January 23-25, 2019 with the Igiugig Village Council (IVC) and other stakeholders to assist the community of Igiugig in refining their long-term energy strategy. The agenda included a tour of the village, data collection, presentations, long-term visioning exercises, identification of energy scenarios, and a school presentation. Participants in the site visit activities spanned a range of local, regional, government, and industry participation. There were 24 attendees at the all-day community workshop on Thursday, January 24th, with participants from the IVC, NREL, Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA), Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC), Lake and Peninsula Borough, Alaska Energy Authority, Intergrid, ORPC, Deer Stone Consulting, the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference, and University of Alaska Fairbanks - Alaska Center for Energy and Power. Igiugig is a well-organized rural Alaskan community, with a leadership team that appears to have broad community support. The use of consensus-based decision making is one tangible example of how the leadership team actively invokes and promotes community-focused thinking. The NREL team observed anecdotal evidence of how this approach seems to be strengthening the community: active participation in the visioning exercise, a student hosted fund-raiser dinner at the school, a clean and organized landfill, and well-maintained roads and buildings. Igiugig has wind, solar, and river hydrokinetic resources readily available within the community. Wind has shown to be a promising resource in the region, and has been integrated into microgrids around the state, but the community has had mixed success with wind technologies: some devices failed quickly and others continue to operate. The economics of solar energy are improving in Alaska, and economical solar projects are being installed around the state. Considering that economic activity in Igiugig peaks during the summer sport fishing season, solar could prove to be a valuable supplement to the electrical system. Igiugig has been a test site for two different river hydrokinetic devices, and they have began a third project to operate ORPC's RivGen device, which is delivering valuable device performance data, operations and maintenance experience, and design refinement information. Already, this device has made over 7-million revolutions, and delivered over 8 MWh of power to the community. Igiugig's river resource is fairly unique because it is available year-round and has the potential to provide reliable base-load power for months at a time. A preliminary investigation of this diverse resource mix suggests that Igiugig could achieve very high levels (70% or more) of annual renewable generation contributions. A critical step in pursuing this path is identifying the mix of energy assets (generation and storage) that best meets the community's budget, needs, and goals. The assets that a community installs early in their grid-modernization initiative can constrain the options that are economical at later stages, which may lead to sub-optimal solutions. This is where technical and economic analysis of potential scenarios (i.e., distinct mixes of energy assets) can be useful in identifying the most promising pathways so that a community can make informed and strategic decisions about the assets they install. These analyses are most accurate and informative when they are based on actual technology performance and cost data. As the RivGen project continues to operate and generate this data, we will be better prepared to evaluate the technology's long-term viability and to identify research areas that would improve it. Igiugig's energy projects are at the cutting edge of two intersecting technology areas: 1) deploying an operational river hydrokinetic turbine, and 2) integrating renewable energy sources to achieve very high percent renewables. If these projects are successful, the lessons learned and technologies developed could be valuable for other microgrids around the world. Igiugig's unique resource mix make it an ideal location for this work, and the community's organizational strength make it an ideal partner in this ground-breaking work. Ongoing support for technical assistance to manage and address technical challenges along the way will maximize the probability of project success.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Biotic predictors improve species distribution models for invasive plants in Western U.S. Forests at high but not low spatial resolutions

Invasions by non-native plants threaten forest health and sustainability. The ability to predict areas at greatest risk to invasion is essential for informing both monitoring and management of invasive species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to identify environmental correlates of a species’ occurrence and predict geographic areas that may be suitable for its presence and are commonly constructed using solely abiotic predictors. However, mounting evidence implies that not including biotic predictors in SDMs may yield less accurate models at some resolutions typical of landscape-scale models, although this possibility has rarely been evaluated in invasive plants. In this study, we determined whether including descriptors of the biotic environment improved the accuracy of SDMs built at five decreasing spatial resolutions for infestations of five common invasive plants in forests of California, Oregon, and Washington, USA and described environmental correlates of each species’ presence. Predictors of occurrence often echoed those identified in previous studies of the focal species, indicating that our models accurately identified important environmental drivers of occurrence. Including biotic predictors in the SDMs consistently improved model accuracy only at the highest resolution we examined, which may be due to the spatial scale at which biotic interactions primarily act to constrain species’ distributions, the particular biotic predictors we used in our models, or correlations between attributes of the abiotic and biotic environment. This finding suggests that, while the practice of building SDMs using abiotic predictors alone may generally yield models whose accuracy does not differ substantially from those that also include biotic predictors, the effects of biotic interactions on the distribution of invasive plants in forests may be detectable at larger scales than previously thought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elemental profiling and genomewide association studies reveal genomic variants modulating ionomic composition in Populus trichocarpa leaves

Samples were collected from a population of 1,089 black cottonwood genotypes (P. trichocarpa) assembled from native stands to encompass the central portion of the natural range of the species, stretching from 38.8° to 54.3° N Q13 latitude from California, USA, to British Columbia, Canada. Establishment of the common garden, growth conditions, and site maintenance have been described by Muchero et al (2015). In this study, leaf samples for ionomic profiling were collected from 4-year-old trees, during the growing season, in July 2012, from a field located in Clatskanie, Oregon, USA (46°6′11″N 123°12′13″W). The field site was located in a protected alluvial floodplain containing a uniform Wauna-Locoda silt loam soil area characterized by an acidic pH, in Columbia County, Oregon. A subset of 584 out of the 1,089 P. trichocarpa genotypes were represented in this sampling. These genotypes were randomly selected to represent the geographical distribution of the population. A single fully mature (LPI 7-9) leaf on the south side of the tree exposed to full sunlight conditions was removed from the tree within a 6-hour window centering on solar noon and immediately frozen under dry ice before processing. Leaf samples of 584 P. trichocarpa genotypes were finely ground to 40 mm particle size using a mortar and pestle, and ionomic composition was analyzed using ICP-MS. In total, 20 elements were profiled, including aluminum (Al27), arsenic (As75), boron (B11), cadmium (Cd111), calcium (Ca43), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe57), magnesium (Mg25), manganese (Mn55), molybdenum (Mo), nickel (Ni60), phosphorus (P31), potassium (K39), rubidium (Rb85), selenium (Se82), sodium (Na23), strontium (Sr88), sulfur (S34), and zinc (Zn66), following a protocol established by Ziegler et al. (2013). For each sample, 75mg of powder was digested overnight in 2.5 mL HNO3 containing 20 parts per billion (ppb) indium as an internal standard, following the protocol described in Ziegler et al. (2013). Following a dilution, concentration of the 20 elements was measured using an Elan 6000 DRC-e mass spectrometer (Perkin-Elmer SCIEX) connected to a PFA microflow nebulizer (Elemental Scientific) and Apex HF desolvator (Elemental Scientific). One measurement per sample per genotype was done. For subsequent analyses, the quantifications were converted to total element concentration.

CBI ionomics, GWAS, plasma-mass spectrometry, neut↗