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Composing, Analyzing and Validating Software Models

This research has been conducted at the Computational Sciences Division of the Information Sciences Directorate at Ames Research Center (Automated Software Engineering Grp). The principle work this summer has been to review and refine the agenda that were carried forward from last summer. Formal specifications provide good support for designing a functionally correct system, however they are weak at incorporating non-functional performance requirements (like reliability). Techniques which utilize stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) are good for evaluating the performance and reliability for a system, but they may be too abstract and cumbersome from the stand point of specifying and evaluating functional behavior. Therefore, one major objective of this research is to provide an integrated approach to assist the user in specifying both functionality (qualitative: mutual exclusion and synchronization) and performance requirements (quantitative: reliability and execution deadlines). In this way, the merits of a powerful modeling technique for performability analysis (using SPNs) can be combined with a well-defined formal specification language. In doing so, we can come closer to providing a formal approach to designing a functionally correct system that meets reliability and performance goals.

Sheldon, Frederick T.↗

Understanding Machine Learning in Earth Science: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Machine learning (ML) is being increasingly utilized in Earth science research. Benefits of ML include efficiency, reduction of human error, and ability to extract hidden patterns within data. However, the mutual lack of each other’s domain knowledge by ML and Earth science stands as a barrier to timely and effective implementation. Earth science, in particular, faces challenges in generating sample data, compared to those of traditional ML problems such as face recognition or stock predictions, where data is abundant and not lacking in ground truth, which is necessary for labeling. Earth science data are more varying in formats, such as HDF5 and image resolutions, and are not standardized across instruments, even within a given Earth science discipline. Previous studies have been done to outline the specific challenges that Earth science faces with ML, while others have focused on using existing publications to mine information efficiently. Other resources such as Scikit-Learn have developed decision trees for choosing appropriate machine learning algorithms, but application within Earth science subjects becomes much more complex. For the current study, we propose a methodology and tool that aids in implementation of ML in Earth science using natural language processing (NLP). Our work comprises three main parts: (1) analyzing existing publications related to ML and Earth science, using natural language processing: (2) extracting from the publications information on ML models subjects in Earth Science: and (3) visualizing the extracted relationships as a network graph. The resulting network graph should aid the Earth science communities in applying optimal ML algorithms and guiding data preparation through visualization of similar studies. The network graph and analysis of document similarity will be the basis of our next step, which is to develop a decision tree for selecting optimal machine learning methodologies for specified Earth science applications.

Zheng, Laura↗

WWAO-WSWC Workshop Report 2019 Final

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Western States Water Council (WSWC) and the NASA Western Water Applications Office (WWAO) hosted a joint workshop on technology transfer for water management in the Western U.S. The goals of the workshop were to understand how different agencies approach the technology transfer and research to operations (R2O) process, identify best practices, and discuss existing barriers to successful technology infusion into operational water resource management systems at the state and federal level. The workshop took place August 7-9, 2019 in Irvine, CA. Key outcomes of the meeting include the following:• U.S. Rep. Grace Napolitano provided opening remarks for the workshop, where she highlighted the critical value of water data and the importance of collaboration between state and federal agencies in working to advance the use of water data in water management, planning and policy. • A total of 33 participants (including remote participants) were part of the workshop. They included principal investigators and project teams supported by NASA (Cyanobacteria Assessment Network, Evapotranspiration for Western States, Evaporative Stress Index, the Airborne Snow Observatory, Satellite-based Snow Water Equivalent in the Sierra Nevadas, and Fallowed Area Mapping) as well as representatives from federal (USGS, NOAA, USBR, EPA) and state (CA, WY, OR, NE) agency partners. • One main outcome of the meeting was the consensus that successful transitions of new applications and new technologies into operations require careful planning, effective communication within and across institutions, resources and considerable time investments. In addition, there was broad agreement that significant lead time is often required to allow for identification of financial and technical resources to sustain operational use of new data, information and tools.• The meeting included remarks from U.S. Rep. Napolitano and discussions during presentations and breakout groups about key opportunities to develop best practices and streamline the technology transfer process. • For example, one key set of best practices that emerged revolved around the the importance of building trust and establishing clear lines of communication between the research and operational institutions. The conversations led to defining two key components of trust-building. The first aspect is purely technical. It requires effectively demonstrating that the proposed application meets the end user’s needs in terms of accuracy, format, resolution, latency, metadata and documentation. The second aspect of building trust involves developing sustained, productive and mutually-beneficial relationships with the partner operational agency. The best practices presented here span both the technical as well as the relational aspects of cultivating trust. • This workshop served as a first step in developing a broader community discussion around R2O in western water management. Many of the best practices and lessons learned described in this report represent starting places for action within the WWAO, WSWC and our colleagues’ institutions. • Effective implementation of the best practices that emerged from this workshop will require sustained investments of time, resources and transition planning. In recognition of this, the WSWC and the WWAO proposed continuation of discussions begun at the workshop through a series of semi-annual or annual workshops.

Wilardson, Tony↗

Use of negotiated rulemaking in developing technical rules for low-Earth orbit mobile satellite systems

Technical innovations have converged with the exploding market demand for mobile telecommunications to create the impetus for low-earth orbit (LEO) communications satellite systems. The so-called 'Little LEO's' propose use of VHF and UHF spectrum to provide position - location and data messaging services. The so-called 'Big LEO's' propose to utilize the RDSS bands to provide voice and data services. In the United States, several applications were filed with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to construct and operate these mobile satellite systems. To enable the prompt introduction of such new technology services, the FCC is using innovative approaches to process the applications. Traditionally, when the FCC is faced with 'mutually exclusive' applications, e.g. a grant of one would preclude a grant of the others, it uses selection mechanisms such as comparative hearings or lotteries. In the case of the LEO systems, the FCC has sought to avoid these time-consuming approaches by using negotiated rulemakings. The FCC's objective is to enable the multiple applicants and other interested parties to agree on technical and service rules which will enable the grant of all qualified applications. With regard to the VHF/UHF systems, the Advisory Committee submitted a consensus report to the FCC. The process for the systems operating in the bands above 1 GHz involved more parties and more issues but still provided the FCC useful technical information to guide the adoption of rules for the new mobile satellite service.

Taylor, Leslie A.↗

Space Archeology Overview at Gordion: 2010 to 2012

In fiscal years 2010, 2011, and 2012, Compton Tucker was the principal investigator of a NASA Space Archaeology project that worked at Gordion, in Central Turkey. Tucker was assisted by an excellent team of co-workers including Joseph Nigro and Daniel Slayback of Science Systems Applications Incorporated, Jenny Strum of the University of New Mexico, and Karina Yager, a post doctoral fellow at NASA/GSFC. This report summaries their research activities at Gordion for the field seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Because of the possible use of our findings at Gordion for tomb robbing there and/or the encouragement of potential tomb robbers using our geophysical survey methods to locate areas to loot, we have not published any of our survey results in the open literature nor placed any of these results on any web sites. These 2010- 2012 survey results remain in the confidential archives of the University of Pennsylvania's University Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology, the group that leads the Gordion Excavation and Research Project. Excavations are planned for 2013 at Gordion, including several that will be based upon the research results in this report. The site of Gordion in central Turkey, famous as the home of King Midas, whose father's intricately tied knot gave the site its name, also served as the center of the Phrygian kingdom that ruled much of Central Anatolia in Asia Minor during the early first millennium B.C. Gordion has been a University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology excavation project since 1950, yet the site is incompletely published despite six decades of research. The primary obstacles related to the site and its preservation were two problems that NASA technology could address: (1) critical survey errors in the hundreds of maps and plans produced by the earlier excavators, most of which used mutually incompatible geospatial referencing systems, that prevented any systematic understanding of the site; and (2) agricultural encroachment upon the site that was compromising its archaeological integrity. Our NASA Space Archaeology proposal was written to address both of these problems. When we started working at Gordion in 2010, we added a third objective, (3) ground penetrating radar and magnetic geophysical surveys of threatened areas. The first objective our NASA Space Archaeology Project was to provide the University of Pennsylvania's Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology a system to rectify and incorporate all existing survey data from Gordion, including previous aerial photographs of the site, detailed site surveys, maps, and excavation plans, into a common mapping system. This was accomplished with a Geographic Information System (GIS) based upon a 60 cm Quickbird satellite image ortho-rectified using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 30 m digital elevation data and tied to a known datum at Gordion. This enabled the first accurate, multi-layer plan of this complex site, occupied almost continuously from the Bronze Age to the 1st millennium CE, and made possible Gordion's three-dimensional development for the first time.

Gordion↗

IMPACT, a Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support - Status of Development

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the tool suite as it nears its System Acceptance Review (SAR). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY23. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedule.

IMPACT↗

SQMS science advances impact on Rigetti commercial processors

The collaboration between the Superconducting Quantum Materials and Systems Center (SQMS) and Rigetti Computing produced several advancements in our understanding of the role of materials characteristics in quantum processor performance. This partnership leverages SQMS's extensive characterization infrastructure and cutting-edge research in materials, and Rigetti's expertise in quantum hardware and robust nanofabrication to improve precision and performance of Rigetti's test QPUs. Qubit frequency is determined in large part by the properties of Josephson junctions (JJs) made of amorphous oxide tunnel barriers; the Alternating-Bias Assisted Annealing (ABAA) process allows us to tune JJs to their desired frequency [1]. Work by SQMS researchers in characterizing high-precision JJs post-processed (using ABAA) have yielded crucial information on the nature of the structure and chemical bonding uniformity of the ABAA processed amorphous oxides. Performance has also been improved through a comprehensive series of experiments that tested encapsulation and surface treatment. Encapsulation of the niobium metal layer with tantalum resulted in an T1 improvement of 80%, experimentally confirming the role of Nb surface losses in qubit performance [2]. Pre-treatment of the underlying silicon surface prior to JJ fabrication by replacing a buffered oxide etch (BOE) with hydrofluoric acid (HF) followed by aqueous ammonium fluoride (NH4F) has shown a statistically significant improvement of T1 by 22%, and reduction in the number of strongly-coupled TLS [3]. These examples, as well as many other published and ongoing investigations, demonstrate the mutual benefits that come from Rigetti's involvement in the SQMS collaboration. [1] - Pappas, D.P., et al. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43246-024-00596-z [2] - Bal, M., et al. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41534-024-00840-x [3] Kopas, C. J. et al. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2408.02863 (2024).

Lachman, Ella↗

The Spectral and Statistical Properties of Turbulence Generated by a Vortex/Blade-Tip Interaction

The perpendicular interaction of a streamwise vortex with the tip of a lifting blade was studied in incompressible flow to provide information useful to the accurate prediction of helicopter rotor noise and the understanding of vortex dominated turbulent flows. The vortex passed 0.3 chord lengths to the suction side of the blade tip, providing a weak interaction. Single and two-point turbulence measurements were made using sub-miniature four sensor hot-wire probes 15 chord lengths downstream of the blade trailing edge; revealing the mean velocity and Reynolds stress tensor distributions of the turbulence, as well as its spanwise length scales as a function of frequency. The single point measurements show the flow downstream of the blade to be dominated by the interaction of the original tip vortex and the vortex shed by the blade. These vortices rotate about each other under their mutual induction, winding up the turbulent wakes of the blades. This interaction between the vortices appears to be the source of new turbulence in their cores and in the region between them. This turbulence appears to be responsible for some decay in the core of the original vortex, not seen when the blade is removed. The region between the vortices is not only a region of comparatively large stresses, but also one of intense turbulence production. Velocity autospectra measured near its center suggests the presence quasi-periodic large eddies with axes roughly parallel to a line joining the vortex cores. Detailed two-point measurements were made on a series of spanwise cuts through the flow so as to reveal the turbulence scales as they would be seen along the span of an intersecting airfoil. The measurements were made over a range of probe separations that enabled them to be analyzed not only in terms of coherence and phase spectra but also in terms of wave-number frequency (kappa-omega) spectra, computed by transforming the measured cross-spectra with respect to the spanwise separation of the probes. These data clearly show the influence of the coherent eddies in the spiral wake and the turbulent region between the cores. These eddies produce distinct peaks in the upwash velocity kappa-omega spectra, and strong anisotropy manifested both in the decay of the kappa-omega spectrum at larger wave-numbers and in differences between the kappa-omega spectra of different components. None of these features are represented in the von Karman spectrum for isotropic turbulence that is often used in broadband noise computations. Wave-number frequency spectra measured in the cores appear to show some evidence that the turbulence outside sets tip core waves, as has previously been hypothesized. These spectra also provide for the first time a truly objective method for distinguishing velocity fluctuations produced by core wandering from other motions.

Devenport, William J.↗

Synchronous Parallel Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation System with Self-Contained Simulation Objects and Active Event Objects

The present invention is embodied in a method of performing object-oriented simulation and a system having inter-connected processor nodes operating in parallel to simulate mutual interactions of a set of discrete simulation objects distributed among the nodes as a sequence of discrete events changing state variables of respective simulation objects so as to generate new event-defining messages addressed to respective ones of the nodes. The object-oriented simulation is performed at each one of the nodes by assigning passive self-contained simulation objects to each one of the nodes, responding to messages received at one node by generating corresponding active event objects having user-defined inherent capabilities and individual time stamps and corresponding to respective events affecting one of the passive self-contained simulation objects of the one node, restricting the respective passive self-contained simulation objects to only providing and receiving information from die respective active event objects, requesting information and changing variables within a passive self-contained simulation object by the active event object, and producing corresponding messages specifying events resulting therefrom by the active event objects.

Steinman, Jeffrey S.↗

Multistatic Aerosol Cloud Lidar in Space: A Theoretical Perspective

Accurate aerosol and cloud retrievals from space remain quite challenging and typically involve solving a severely ill-posed inverse scattering problem. In this Perspective, we formulate in general terms an aerosol and aerosol-cloud interaction space mission concept intended to provide detailed horizontal and vertical profiles of aerosol physical characteristics as well as identify mutually induced changes in the properties of aerosols and clouds. We argue that a natural and feasible way of addressing the ill-posedness of the inverse scattering problem while having an exquisite vertical-profiling capability is to fly a multistatic (including bistatic) lidar system. We analyze theoretically the capabilities of a formation-flying constellation of a primary satellite equipped with a conventional monostatic (backscattering) lidar and one or more additional platforms each hosting a receiver of the scattered laser light. If successfully implemented, this concept would combine the measurement capabilities of a passive multi-angle multi-spectral polarimeter with the vertical profiling capability of a lidar; address the ill-posedness of the inverse problem caused by the highly limited information content of monostatic lidar measurements; address the ill-posedness of the inverse problem caused by vertical integration and surface reflection in passive photopolarimetric measurements; relax polarization accuracy requirements; eliminate the need for exquisite radiative-transfer modeling of the atmosphere-surface system in data analyses; yield the day-and-night observation capability; provide direct characterization of ground-level aerosols as atmospheric pollutants; and yield direct measurements of polarized bidirectional surface reflectance. We demonstrate, in particular, that supplementing the conventional backscattering lidar with just one additional receiver flown in formation at a scattering angle close to 170deg can dramatically increase the information content of the measurements. Although the specific subject of this Perspective is the multistatic lidar concept, all our conclusions equally apply to a multistatic radar system intended to study from space the global distribution of cloud and precipitation characteristics.

aerosols↗

Interactions Between Microturbulence and Magnetohydrodynamic Instabilities in Magnetized Plasmas (Final Technical Report)

This document details the work accomplished during the period 04/15/2012-01/31/2020 for the collaborative project “Interactions Between Microturbulence and Magnetohydrodynamic Instabilities in Magnetized Plasmas,” and serves as the final report on the University of California, San Diego part of this collaborative project for Department of Energy Office of Science - Fusion Energy Sciences Grant No. DE- SC0007783. This project focused on the development of analytic and computational tools, seeking to better understand the mutual interactions between small-scale temperature-gradient driven microturbulence and macroscopic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities, particularly tearing modes, in magnetically confined plasmas relevant for the generation of fusion energy. This project advanced understanding through numerical simulations of different sets of model equations, corresponding to different microturbulence instabilities. Questions addressed included how the magnitudes, spatial structures, and scaling's of turbulent forcing's and drags impact magnetic island dynamics, as well as quantifying the “region of influence” of an island on the microturbulence dynamics. A key finding of the project is that the microturbulence fluctuations and associated cross-field particle and energy fluxes exhibit spatial asymmetries for sufficiently large islands. The results have improved our fundamental understanding of plasma dynamics, motivated new experimental investigations, and will help inform future fusion predictive modeling efforts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fractional Statistics

The quantum-mechanical description of assemblies of particles whose motion is confined to two (or one) spatial dimensions offers many possibilities that are distinct from bosons and fermions. We call such particles anyons. The simplest anyons are parameterized by an angular phase parameter θ. θ = 0, π correspond to bosons and fermions, respectively; at intermediate values, we say that we have fractional statistics. In two dimensions, θ describes the phase acquired by the wave function as two anyons wind around one another counterclockwise. It generates a shift in the allowed values for the relative angular momentum. Composites of localized electric charge and magnetic flux associated with an abelian U(1) gauge group realize this behavior. More complex charge-flux constructions can involve nonabelian and product groups acting on a spectrum of allowed charges and fluxes, giving rise to nonabelian and mutual statistics. Interchanges of nonabelian anyons implement unitary transformations of the wave function within an emergent space of internal states. Anyons of all kinds are described by quantum field theories that include Chern–Simons terms. The crossings of one-dimensional anyons on a ring are unidirectional, such that a fractional phase θ acquired upon interchange gives rise to fractional shifts in the relative momenta between the anyons. The quasiparticle excitations of fractional quantum Hall states have long been predicted to include anyons. Recently, the anyon behavior predicted for quasiparticles in the ν = 1/3 fractional quantum Hall state has been observed in both scattering and interferometric experiments. Excitations within designed systems, notably including superconducting circuits, can exhibit anyon behavior. Such systems are being developed for possible use in quantum information processing.

Physics↗

Impact, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision to Support - Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

IMPACT, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support- Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

Accelerating Hanford Site Cleanup through Operations Research Modeling - 20238

The Hanford Site cleanup effort will require the integration of dozens of unique facilities and processes, many of which will be first-of-a-kind in implementation and design. Each facility will be governed by its own set of operating logic, configured with a unique array of unit operations, and subject to a set of constraints that will affect its behavior. The collection of facilities have multiple points of interface, making the operations of any one facility potentially significant to the operations of other up- or downstream processes. It is therefore highly desirable to accurately predict these operations, as it allows for Site officials to identify and preempt bottlenecks and vulnerabilities before they unexpectedly inhibit the cleanup mission. With the quantity and complexity of the processes that will be on Site, building a pen-and-paper or even a spreadsheet-assisted model of the cleanup mission quickly becomes overwhelming in scope and inaccurate in execution. The Engineering organization for the Site's Tank Operations Contract (TOC) has therefore implemented the use of operations research (OR) modeling to simulate and predict future operations of Site facilities. These models are created using a discrete event simulation tool that allows for the development of detailed, versatile, and robust models. Not only can these models account for complex logical behaviors, but they can also simulate process details down to the level of vessel sizing, labor utilization, equipment reliability, and resource availability. To date, the TOC has developed OR models for several facilities on Site, including for single-shell tank (SST) farms, double-shell tank (DST) farms, the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF), and the waste transfer system. These models have focused on identifying bottlenecks and operational constraints, and have been used to quantify the effects of implementing process changes. This latter point is particularly valuable, as it allows for several alternatives to be studied in a virtual setting before committing resources to making a change in the field. The decision to develop OR models has gained tremendous support from the Site's stakeholders and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) management, and has prompted the use of the tool to support additional internal and external initiatives. Recently, an initiative was proposed to use the models to help identify and provide quantitative backing for risks and opportunities for the TOC. This application of OR could not only help inform how the TOC manages its risks (e.g. quantities and types of spare parts), but could also help drive process improvements whose benefits might otherwise be hard to quantify. The models have also been used to drive the TOC's cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) initiatives. These initiatives will not only improve the ability of the TOC to more rapidly respond to the needs of its customers, but it will also aid in the ability of the TOC to analyze and improve the processes it studies. Partnership with two external software development and consulting companies (Lanner and Ynformed) has furthered not only the application of AI and ML within the TOC, but has also spurred the development of new/improved software tools and platforms used by the companies. These partnerships have proven to be mutually beneficial and productive, and have set a precedent for the types of gains that can be made by exploring such options. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Continuum Modeling of the Dynamics of Externally Injection-locked Coupled Oscillator Arrays

Mutually injection-locked arrays of electronic oscillators provide a novel means of controlling the aperture phase of a phased-array antenna, thus achieving the advantages of spatial power combining while retaining the ability to steer the radiated beam. In a number of design concepts, one or more of the oscillators are injection locked to a signal from an external master-oscillator. The behavior of such a system has been analyzed by numerical solution of a system of nonlinear differential equations which, due to its complexity, yields limited insight into the relationship between the injection signals and the aperture phase. In this paper, we develop a continuum model, which results in a single partial differential equation for the aperture phase as a function of time. Solution of the equation is effected by means of the Laplace transformation and yields detailed information concerning the dynamics of the array under the influence of the external injection signals.

injection locked↗

Science and Technology (S and T) Roadmap Collaboration between SMC, NASA, and Government Partners

National Security Space (NSS) presents multi-faceted S and T challenges. We must continually innovate enterprise and information management; provide decision support; develop advanced materials; enhance sensor technology; transform communication technology; develop advanced propulsion and resilient space architectures and capabilities; and enhance multiple additional S and T domains. These challenges are best met by leveraging advanced S and T research and technology development from a number of DoD agencies and civil agencies such as NASA. The authors of this paper have engaged in these activities since 2006 and over the past decade developed multiple strategic S and T relationships. This paper highlights the Office of the Space Missile Systems Center (SMC) Chief Scientist (SMC/ST) collaboration with the NASA Office of Chief Technologist (NASA OCT), which has multiple S and T activities that are relevant to NSS. In particular we discuss the development of the Technology Roadmaps that benefit both Civil Space and NSS. Our collaboration with NASA OCT has been of mutual benefit to multiple participants. Some of the other DoD components include the Defense Advanced Research Projects agency (DARPA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), The USAF Office of Chief Scientist, the USAF Science Advisory Board (SAB), Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR), and a number of other services and agencies. In addition, the human talent is a key enabler of advanced S and T activities; it is absolutely critical to have a strong supply of talent in the fields of Science Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Consequently, we continually collaborate with the USAF Institute of Technology (AFIT), other service academies and graduate schools, and other universities and colleges. This paper highlights the benefits that result from such strategic S and T partnerships and recommends a way forward that will continually build upon these achievements into the future.

Science Technology Collaboration↗

Combining Emergent Constraints for Climate Sensitivity

A method is proposed for combining information from several emergent constraints into a probabilistic estimate for a climate sensitivity proxy Y such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The method is based on fitting a multivariate Gaussian PDF for Y and the emergent constraints using an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs); it can be viewed as a form of multiple linear regression of Y on the constraints. The method accounts for uncertainties in sampling this multidimensional PDF with a small number of models, for observational uncertainties in the constraints, and for overconfidence about the correlation of the constraints with the climate sensitivity. Its general form (Method C) accounts for correlations between the constraints. Method C becomes less robust when some constraints are too strongly related to each other; this can be mitigated using regularization approaches such as ridge regression. An illuminating special case, Method U, neglects any correlations between constraints except through their mutual relationship to the climate proxy; it is more robust to small GCM sample size and is appealingly interpretable. These methods are applied to ECS and the climate feedback parameter using a previously published set of 11 possible emergent constraints derived from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ±2σ posterior range of ECS for Method C with no overconfidence adjustment is 4.3 ± 0.7 K. For Method U with a large overconfidence adjustment, it is 4.0 ± 1.3 K. This study adds confidence to past findings that most constraints predict higher climate sensitivity than the CMIP mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗