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At least 325 records · Page 18

Decadal forest soil respiration following stem girdling

Soil respiration (Rs) represents the largest flux of carbon (C) from forests to the atmosphere, but the long-term influence of phloem-disrupting disturbance on Rs is poorly understood, limiting robust forecasts of ecosystem C balance. Using a decade of observations from the Forest accelerated succession experiment (FASET), we examined relationships among Rs, soil temperature, soil moisture, and leaf area index (LAI) following the stem girdling-induced mortality of 40% of all canopy trees within a 39-ha area. Mean annual Rs declined by about 20% relative to the control two years after disturbance, but recovered to near pre-disturbance values within five years; this reduction correlated with LAI losses and lower Rs temperature sensitivity (i.e., Q 10 ), with the latter counteracting soil warming caused by partial canopy defoliation. These observations are consistent with progressive reductions in belowground labile C causing reductions in Rs. In conclusion, we conclude that the effects of stem girdling on Rs (1) were not immediate, occurring two years after the treatment, (2) were primarily influenced by biotic rather than soil microclimate changes, and (3) persisted for nearly a decade but were temporally dynamic, underscoring the value of long-term experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whole-Ecosystem Warming Increases Plant-Available Nitrogen and Phosphorus in an Ombrotrophic Bog

Warming is expected to increase the net release of carbon from peatland soils, contributing to future warming. This positive feedback may be moderated by the response of peatland vegetation to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] or to increased soil nutrient availability. We asked whether a gradient of whole-ecosystem warming (from + 0 °C to + 9 °C) would increase plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA, and whether elevated [CO 2 ] would modify the nutrient response. We tracked changes in plant-available nutrients across space and through time and in comparison with other nutrient pools, and assessed whether nutrient warming responses were captured by a point version of the land-surface model, ELM-SPRUCE. We found that warming exponentially increased plant-available ammonium and phosphate, but that nutrient dynamics were unaffected by elevated [CO 2 ]. The warming response increased by an order of magnitude between the first and fourth year of the experimental manipulation, perhaps because of dramatic mortality of Sphagnum mosses in the surface peat of the warmest treatments. However, neither the magnitude nor the temporal dynamics of the responses were captured by ELM-SPRUCE. Here, relative increases in plant-available ammonium and phosphate with warming were similar, but the response varied across raised hummocks and depressed hollows and with peat depth. Plant-available nutrient dynamics were only loosely correlated with inorganic and organic porewater nutrients, likely representing different processes. Future predictions of peatland nutrient availability under climate change scenarios must account for dynamic changes in nutrient acquisition by plants and microbes, as well as microtopography and peat depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A treatment-effect model to quantify human dimensions of disaster impacts: the case of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Here, we propose a supervised learning approach using publicly available panel data to statistically quantify the specific manifestations of human impacts of an extreme event, such as changes number of suicides, substance abuse, excess mortality, and unemployment. This allows us to conceptually focus our framework on human impacts and how by attributing them to disaster events along widely accepted psychological, economic, and social dimensions. Our modified treatment-effect model allows counterfactual baseline conditions to be posited for each manifestation from which an aggregated quantitative multi-faceted measure of human impacts can be determined. The developed statistical methodology could be beneficial to policymakers who must allocate scarce resources to those communities in greater need. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using annual and monthly panel data from 2012 to 2018 encompassing the 2017 Hurricane Maria event across various municipalities in Puerto Rico. Our statistical modeling methodology stands apart since (i) it explicitly and more realistically captures the effect of different human-oriented manifestations of an actual event and (ii) it is flexible enough to accommodate individual preferences of various stakeholders in how they assign importance to multiple manifestations of human impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The environmental impact of hydropower: a systematic review of the ecological effects of sub-daily flow variability on riverine fish

Hydropower can help facilitate power grid decarbonization because it can respond to short-term changes in power demand and is comparatively more reliable than intermittent wind and solar. However, flexible hydropower operations can create rapid and abnormal fluctuations in downstream flow conditions, which can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Accordingly, we conducted a systematic review on the ecological effects of hydropower-driven sub-daily flow variability (SDFV) on riverine fishes. We reviewed and synthesized 109 articles relevant to fish-SDFV relationships from seven sources, most of which focused on Salmonids in North America and northern and western Europe and were published in the last 15 years. We found strong agreement in the literature that SDFV increases fish stranding risk, destabilizes habitat, and decreases production and diversity. We found moderate agreement that SDFV interrupts fish reproduction, increases or has no impact on condition, and prompts or discourages movement depending on local channel conditions. We found little to no agreement for relationships between SDFV and mortality, physiology, and behavior. The effects of SDFV on riverine fish ecology are intertwined in the complex suite of biotic and abiotic characteristics that structure aquatic ecosystems and are highly site-, species-, and life stage-specific. Assessments of the impact of SDFV on fish ecology should first characterize local habitat and channel quality and fish community composition to identify specific, measurable ecological outcomes to sustain or enhance, and then design mitigation strategies tailored to those ecological objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Structure-based mechanism and inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein

Purpose of Review: Cholesteryl ester transfer proteins (CETP) regulate plasma cholesterol levels by transferring cholesteryl esters (CEs) among lipoproteins. Lipoprotein cholesterol levels correlate with the risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). This article reviews recent research on CETP structure, lipid transfer mechanism, and its inhibition. Recent Findings: Genetic deficiency in CETP is associated with a low plasma level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and a profoundly elevated plasma level of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), which correlates with a lower risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, a very high concentration of HDL-C also correlates with increased ASCVD mortality. Considering that the elevated CETP activity is a major determinant of the atherogenic dyslipidemia, i.e., pro-atherogenic reductions in HDL and LDL particle size, inhibition of CETP emerged as a promising pharmacological target during the past two decades. CETP inhibitors, including torcetrapib, dalcetrapib, evacetrapib, anacetrapib and obicetrapib, were designed and evaluated in phase III clinical trials for the treatment of ASCVD or dyslipidemia. Although these inhibitors increase in plasma HDL-C levels and/or reduce LDL-C levels, the poor efficacy against ASCVD ended interest in CETP as an anti-ASCVD target. Nevertheless, interest in CETP and the molecular mechanism by which it inhibits CE transfer among lipoproteins persisted. Insights into the structural-based CETP-lipoprotein interactions can unravel CETP inhibition machinery, which can hopefully guide the design of more effective CETP inhibitors that combat ASCVD. Summary: Individual-molecule 3D structures of CETP bound to lipoproteins provide a model for understanding the mechanism by which CETP mediates lipid transfer and which in turn, guide the rational design of new anti-ASCVD therapeutics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating indoor thermal resilience of passive and low-power cooling shelters for outdoor workers in India

India’s 231 million outdoor workers are exposed to deadly heat during heat waves. We report results from a simulation-based study that focuses on passive design of cooling shelters for the hot and dry climate zone of India. The goal is to design a cooler-than-outdoor shelter for outdoor workers’ intermittent rest and recovery from heat stress during their arduous outdoor work, to avoid heat-related morbidities and mortality. Expected indoor thermal conditions in low-cost cooling shelters deploying a range of passive designs and low-power active measures are investigated, consistent with the current Indian standards and practices, located in the city of Jodhpur in western India. Heat resilience of the shelter was measured with the predicted reduction of hazardous hours inside the shelter based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and extended heat index. These measures include improving the building envelope, installing cool roofs, using internal thermal mass, and natural ventilation. Additionally, a low-power active measure of using ventilation fans and ceiling fans is explored. EnergyPlus-based simulation results show that simple, commonly available measures, particularly natural ventilation and ceiling fans, achieve the most significant reductions in overheating danger hours, by 22% and 21%, respectively, while more complex or costly passive strategies yield only marginal additional benefits. Moreover, combined measure packages are identified that can reduce the indoor WBGT by 8 to 10 °C, eliminating overheating danger hours. These findings highlight the critical importance of scalable, low-cost, and easily deployable cooling solutions for developing resilient cooling shelters for vulnerable outdoor workers during heat waves in India.

building performance↗

Application of Atmospheric Gases and Particulate Matter to the Assessment of Urban Heat Island

Background: Urban heat island (UHI), where built areas are warmer compared to non-urban regions, increases human related diseases and mortality. A key challenge in UHI analysis is the designation of sites as urban or suburban/rural; however, the growing complexity of green spaces in urban areas and the predominance of the transportation sector in nonurban areas creates a dilemma for distinct delineation. Objectives: This study aims to utilize the variability of atmospheric components such as particulate matter (PM), inorganic gases, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as direct tracers of the degree of urbanization for ground-based measurements to fully comprehend UHI in convoluted regions with indistinct delineation of urban and nonurban environments. Methods: Atmospheric gases and aerosols were used as direct tracers of urbanization for UHI analysis. Inorganic gases and particulate matter were monitored in two sites in a southeastern US city with varying degrees of urbanization. VOCs were analyzed using a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Results: The more-urbanized site exhibited warmer night conditions and elevated total oxidant levels, leading to the formation of nanometer-sized particles. Machine learning analysis revealed similar atmospheric pollutant profiles for both sites, suggesting comparable sources and variability. Biogenic VOCs were enhanced at the less-urbanized site; however, levels of anthropogenic aromatic VOCs were comparable for both sites. A comprehensive mass spectra analysis revealed distinct molecular backbones per site that further affirmed the applicability of VOCs as indicators of urbanization. Conclusion: This study concludes that VOCs provide more direct and accurate information than typical inorganic gases and PM parameters for characterizing the degree of urbanization. Further exploration of VOCs can enhance our understanding of UHI dynamics and its interaction with vegetation in urban green spaces.

Air quality sensor↗

Effects of forest structural and compositional change on forest microclimates across a gradient of disturbance severity

Forest structural diversity and community composition are key in regulating forest microclimates. When disturbance affects structural diversity or composition, forest microclimates may be altered due to changes in soil temperature, soil water content, and light availability. It is unclear however which structural or compositional components, when changed or to what extent, result in microclimatic change. To address this question, we used data from a large scale, manipulative stem-girdling experiment in northern, lower Michigan—the Forest Resilience and Threshold Experiment (FoRTE). FoRTE follows a factorial design with multiple levels of disturbance severity (0, 45, 65, 85%) based on targeted reductions in gross leaf area index via stem-girdling induced mortality. These disturbance severity treatments are applied in two ways: either as top-down (largest trees are killed) or bottom-up (small to medium trees killed) treatments. We examined how multiple components of structural diversity and community composition changed as a product of disturbance severity and type, and then tested for resulting effects on forest microclimates (light availability, soil temperature, and soil water), using a multivariate, Random Forest framework. We found that measures of community composition (species richness, species evenness, and Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index) and stand structure (basal area, standard deviation of DBH, tree size diversity) declined more following disturbance than did measures of canopy cover, heterogeneity, arrangement, or height. However, when changes in each variable from pre- to post-disturbance, measured as log change, were employed in a multivariate, Random Forest regression framework, structural diversity measures of heterogeneity (rugosity, top rugosity), cover (canopy cover), and arrangement (porosity) were the most influential variables, but with differences among bottom-up and top-down treatments We found that the death of large trees from disturbance impacts soil temperature, water, and light environments more substantially and uniformly across disturbance gradients than does the death of smaller trees. Furthermore, our results have implications for both statistical and process-based modeling of forest disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reviving the carbon sink: The influence of moderate wind disturbance in a secondary temperate mixed forest

Global forests are increasingly exposed to climate-driven perturbations, which may in turn alter their climate mitigation potential. As tropical cyclones expand poleward due to climate warming, wind disturbances in temperate forests have become increasingly frequent. The consequences of moderate wind disturbances remain poorly understood, hindering efforts to quantify their role in the global carbon cycle. Here, we used 16 years of continuous eddy covariance and biometric measurements to investigate the impacts of moderate wind disturbances on the structure and carbon sink dynamics of a temperate forest in Northeast China. Following Typhoon Maysak in 2020, the mortality of large trees (particularly the aging pioneer species) increased ninefold, whereas that of small trees decreased by nearly half. Both stand basal area and leaf area index were reduced between 2019 and 2023, with aging pioneer tree species being more vulnerable than mid-to-late species to wind disturbances. Shifts in species composition altered the environmental sensitivity of forest carbon sink function. Unexpectedly, wind disturbances reversed the declining trends in net ecosystem production and ecosystem carbon use efficiency of this secondary forest. A novel composite structural indicator—the standardized leaf area index (the maximum leaf area supported by per basal area of the stand)—provided robust predictions (R 2 > 0.4) of carbon sink dynamics throughout the study period. The selective removal of less efficient pioneer trees accelerated succession and reversed the aging-related decline in forest carbon sink strength and carbon use efficiency. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential role of moderate wind disturbances in enhancing forest carbon sink function and offer a framework for understanding, assessing, and predicting forest carbon dynamics under increasing disturbance frequencies driven by climate change.

Carbon sink↗

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗

Integrated Transcriptomic and Proteomic Analysis Identifies Plasma Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Failure in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a form of liver failure with high short-term mortality. Recent results have shown that HNF4a defective function and systemic inflammation are major disease drivers of AH. Plasma biomarkers of hepatocyte function could be useful for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Herein an integrative analysis of hepatic RNAseq and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was performed to identify plasma protein signatures for mild and severe AH patients. Alcohol-related liver disease cirrhosis (ALD)(AC), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NALFD), and healthy subjects (HC) were used as comparator groups. Identified proteins primarily involved in hepatocellular function were decreased in AH patients which included hepatokines, clotting factors, complement cascade components, and hepatocyte growth activators. A protein signature of AH disease severity was identified including thrombin (THRB), hepatocyte growth factor alpha (HGFA), clusterin (CLUS), human serum factor H-related protein (FHR1) and kallistatin (KAIN), which exhibited large abundance shifts between severe and non-severe AH. The combination of THRB and HGFA discriminated between severe and non-severe AH with high sensitivity and specificity. These findings were correlated with the liver expression of genes encoding secreted proteins in a similar cohort, finding a highly consistent plasma protein signature reflecting HNF4A and HNF1A functions. This unbiased proteomic-transcriptome analysis identified plasma protein signatures and pathways associated with disease severity, reflecting HNF4A/1A activity useful for diagnostic assessment in AH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Analysis of an optical imaging system prototype for autonomously monitoring zooplankton in an aquaculture facility

Traditional approaches to biomonitoring in aquatic systems, such as sample collection, sorting, and identification, require significant time and effort, thereby limiting the spatiotemporal resolution of sample collection. Additionally, collection and preservation of samples for subsequent taxonomic identification and enumeration leads to mortality of organisms. Recent advances in technologies that utilize optical imaging and machine learning have provided new opportunities to expedite biomonitoring and lead to significant cost savings. These technologies can be advantageous to scientists or managers that conduct routine biomonitoring to inform operations, as in the case of aquaculture facilities. The Small Aquatic Organism optical imaging system (SAO) is a high-throughput optical imaging and classification prototype system that relies on computer vision and machine learning (Support Vector Machines, or SVMs) to autonomously identify and enumerate aquatic organisms. The SAO provides a more sustainable method of collecting large volumes of data and has the benefit of being used in situ. In this study, we tested the performance of the SAO in providing comparable results to manual zooplankton community monitoring in ten ponds at an aquaculture facility. We performed a side-by-side study comparing the sampling methods of plankton tow nets, where major zooplankton taxonomic classes were manually identified and enumerated, to sampling with the SAO. Vouchered samples were used to develop a training library for the SAO, where classes consisted of water boatman and zooplankton groups: cladocerans, copepod adults, copepod nauplii, and rotifers. SAO imagery was manually classified and compared with predicted results for validation. Accuracy for the SVM classifier of the SAO was 37.4 %. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Random Forest classifiers were also applied to SAO imagery and image features for comparison. The best CNN model and our Random Forest model had accuracies of 80.4 % and 46.6 % respectively. Challenges faced included the small size of copepod nauplii and rotifers and the limited resolution of the imaging camera, although there are tradeoffs between imaging resolution and the sample processing rate. Furthermore, our comparison shows that advancement in both optical imaging and ML are needed in order for the SAO prototype to yield comparable results to manual community monitoring in an aquaculture facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seaweed-derived fucoidans and rhamnan sulfates serve as potent anti-SARS-CoV-2 agents with potential for prophylaxis

Seaweeds represent a rich source of sulfated polysaccharides with similarity to heparan sulfate, a facilitator of myriad virus host cell attachment. For this reason, attention has been drawn to their antiviral activity, including the potential for anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity. We have identified and structurally characterized several fucoidan extracts, including those from different species of brown macroalga, and a rhamnan sulfate from a green macroalga species. A high molecular weight fucoidan extracted from Saccharina japonica (FSjRPI-27), and a rhamnan sulfate extracted from Monostroma nitidum (RSMn), showed potent competitive inhibition of spike glycoprotein receptor binding to a heparin-coated SPR chip. This inhibition was also observed in cell-based assays using hACE2 HEK-293 T cells infected by pseudotyped SARS-CoV-2 virus with IC50 values <1 μg/mL. Effectiveness was demonstrated in vivo using hACE2–transgenic mice. Intranasal administration of FSjRPI-27 showed protection when dosed 6 h prior to and at infection, and then every 2 days post-infection, with 100 % survival and no toxicity at 104 plaque-forming units per mouse vs. buffer control. At 5-fold higher virus dose, FSjRPI-27 reduced mortality and yielded reduced viral titers in bronchioalveolar fluid and lung homogenates vs. buffer control. Furthermore, these findings suggest the potential application of seaweed-based sulfated polysaccharides as promising anti-SARS-CoV-2 prophylactics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Molecular Transducers of Physical Activity Consortium (MoTrPAC): Mapping the Dynamic Responses to Exercise

Exercise provides a robust physiological stimulus that evokes cross-talk between a wide range of tissues via hormonal, cellular and molecular signals that when repeated regularly over time (i.e., training) improves physiological capacity, benefits numerous organ systems and decreases the risk for premature mortality. In spite of its fundamental importance, a gap remains in identifying the detailed molecular signals and responses to exercise and its benefits for health and disease prevention. To further knowledge in this emerging area, the Molecular Transducers of Physical Activity Consortium (MoTrPAC) was established to generate a molecular map of the effects of acute and chronic exercise. MoTrPAC investigators are conducting preclinical and clinical studies to better understand the systemic effects of exercise across multiple tissues. The preclinical studies were performed on more than 700 rats with the analysis of twenty or more organs per rat. The clinical study involves a large cohort of ~2600 individuals with a range of ages and fitness levels (untrained, trained, highly trained) who will be evaluated physiologically and by molecular probing of blood, muscle and adipose tissues before and after acute and chronic endurance or resistance exercise. Multi-omic analyses (genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics/lipidomics) will be performed followed by state-of-the-art bioinformatics to create a molecular map of exercise. This mapping project will provide a public database that is expected to enhance our understanding of the health benefits of physical activity in many organ systems and potentially provide insight into mitigating diseases through activity.

Sanford, James A.↗

Effects of PFOS on the behavior, growth, emergence, and predation susceptibility of larval mosquitoes ( Culex quinquefasciatus )

Per-/polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been commonly used over several decades for a variety of products and are very persistent in the environment. However, not much is known about their direct effects on aquatic invertebrates and their ecosystems. We examined the survival, behavior, development, and predation susceptibility of mosquito larvae Culex quinquefasciatus exposed to concentrations of perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) ranging from 0.02 to 453.7 µg/L. PFOS exposure resulted in reduced larval survival, with a 48 hour LC50 (concentration with 50 % mortality) of 255.99 µg/L. PFOS exposure also resulted in reduced developmental success and slower maturation to adulthood (and thus slower emergence from the water) compared to control larvae. PFOS also resulted in delays in reaction to prodding stimuli, which were meant to simulate a predator attack, and longer reactions to prodding. Larvae exposed to PFOS also spent more time at the bottom of the water column, rather than at the surface where respiration takes place. Effects of larval mosquito PFOS exposure on predation by unexposed damselfly naiads (genus Ischnura) were not detected. Overall, this research suggests that PFOS impacts mosquito larvae survival, behavior, development, and adult emergence, which could have important implications for food webs or public health given the role of mosquitos as disease vectors.

Food web dynamics↗

Transcriptional and translational landscape of Candida auris in response to caspofungin

Candida auris has emerged as a serious worldwide threat by causing opportunistic infections that are frequently resistant to one or more conventional antifungal medications resulting in high mortality rates. Against this backdrop, health warnings around the world have focused efforts on understanding C. auris fungal biology and effective prevention and treatment approaches to combat this fungus. To date, there is little information about the differentially expressed genes when this fungus is treated with conventional antifungals, and caspofungin is a standard echinocandin deployed in the therapy against C. auris. In this work, we treated two distinct strains of C. auris for 24h with caspofungin, and the cellular responses were evaluated at the morphological, translational and transcriptional levels. We first observed that the echinocandin caused morphological alterations, aggregation of yeast cells, and modifications in the cell wall composition of C. auris. Transcriptomic analysis revealed an upregulation of genes related to the synthesis of the cell wall, ribosome, and cell cycle after exposure to caspofungin. Supporting these findings, the integrated proteomic analysis showed that caspofungin-treated cells were enriched in ribosome-related proteins and cell wall, especially mannoproteins. Altogether, these results provide further insights into the biology of C. auris and expands our understanding regarding the antifungal activity of caspofungin and reveal cellular targets, as the mannose metabolism, that can be further explored for the development of novel antifungals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale (50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale (3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗