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At least 325 records · Page 18

Improving interannual prediction skill in a changing climate via the identification of compensating coupled model errors

Significant progress can be made through a truly interdisciplinary effort, combining the expertise from climate dynamics and from engineering control. We believe that this novel approach can make a unique and valuable contribution, and help the climate community deliver improved models for the potential response of the Earth's climate to increased greenhouse gas levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling clear-air turbulence with vortices using parameter-identification techniques

A vortex model of winds associated with clear-air turbulence (CAT) is shown to be useful for characterizing actual airline CAT encounters. The model consists of an array of vortices with solid-body cores embedded in a potential flow field. Parameters such as the size and strength of the vortices and their locations are identified using a modified Newton-Raphson algorithm. A manual identification start-up scheme is used to minimize errors in the initial parameter estimates, and the identification algorithm is found to be robust in regard to the remaining errors. The analysis of a CAT encounter involving a commercial airliner demonstrates the success of the model and estimation procedure. The analysis finds vortices with core diameters of 1000 ft and tangential velocities of 87 ft/sec in this encounter.

Mehta, R. S.↗

Frequency Domain Quasi Maximum Likelihood Identification of Low Order Aeroservoelastic Models from Flight-Test Data

Background and Motivation - Low Order Equivalent System (LOES) - From handling qualities analysis - Traditionally simplifying complex control law and plant - More easily understood form - Extend LOES to a complex model due to aeroelasticity - Maximum likelihood (Filter Error) System Identification - Z = H_loes (U + W) + V - There are a lot of parameters - Estimate noise parameters - Extra outputs mean extra parameters to estimate - Usually assume noise model to simplify - Output Error and Equation Error - Results in biased estimates of the parameters - Sensing flexible aircraft have many outputs - Quasi maximum likelihood exploits redundancy of outputs

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

SVM-Based Parameter Identification for Composite ZIP and Electronic Load Modeling

This paper proposes a parameter identification technique for composite ZIP and electronic loads by leveraging the support vector machine (SVM) approach. Since the active power and the reactive power of electronic loads are piecewise functions of the voltage magnitude, the operating modes of electronic loads are determined by the voltage magnitude. To improve the accuracy of parameter identification, two filters (Hampel and Savitzky–Golay) are employed to preprocess measurements to reduce noise. The data after noise reduction serve as training data for the regression model that is solved by the SVM approach. Numerical results show that the SVM approach with filters can identify the parameters of the composite ZIP and electronic load model with high accuracy

Electronic load↗

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Frequency Domain Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Identification of Low Order Aeroservoelastic Models from Flight-Test Data

Background and Motivation - Low Order Equivalent System (LOES) - From handling qualities analysis - Traditionally simplifying complex control law and plant - More easily understood form - Extend LOES to a complex model due to aeroelasticity - Maximum likelihood (Filter Error) System Identification - Z = H_loes (U + W) + V - There are a lot of parameters - System identification usually simplifies by assuming a value - Output Error and Equation Error - Results in biased estimates of the parameters - We are proposing a new method to solving this problem

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

High Fidelity Modeling of Evolutionary Structures in IMOS

A methodology is proposed for testing, modal identification, and model correlation of structures which are assembled in an evolutionary manner. The methodology prescribes initial testing of a base structure without any attached components. The experimental modal properties are used to update the physical properties of the base structure finite element model using a Bayesian Estimation Technique (BET). The BET is implemented in METLAB using IMOS functions. As components are added to the base structure, additional tests are performed. Three testing options are proposed, all of which enable estimation of the physical parameters of the components alone. Furthermore, improvements to the original BET implementation have been made, which contribute to higher fidelity models and more efficient computational times.

structures testing assembling modeling BET Bayesia↗

Hybrid Inverse Parameter Identification of Fully Coupled Ductile Damage Model for Steel Sheet DP600 with Two Different Algorithms: Trust Region and Genetic Algorithms

Ductile damage model has been widely regarded as a valuable method to predict the failure of sheet metal. Based on the thermodynamic theory and continuum damage mechanics, the fully coupled ductile damage model can be developed, which also can better predict the initiation and growth of the fracture. But the identifications of model parameters with theoretical methodology are difficult due to the complex coupling relationships existing among all state variables. The inverse methodology is regarded as a good method to resolve the problem. In this paper, the recently proposed fully coupled ductile damage model is chosen to investigate the deformation behavior of DP600 steel, in which the mixed saturation isotropic and kinematic hardenings are taken into account and fully coupled with the ductile damage. During the identification process, the least square formula of the error between experimental and numerical results is selected as the target function. The trust region algorithm and genetic algorithm are used with the help of MATLAB for the identification of three damage parameters. Finally, by comparing the experimental and numerical results, the validations of two algorithms are proved. The efficiency of the optimization process with trust region algorithm is higher, but with lower accuracy. Meanwhile, the optimization process is greatly affected by the chosen initial values of the ductile damage parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Identification of a second-order mechanical system model from a state space realization

Many system identification algorithms produce models in modern state variable form. When a mechanical system is identified one knows that there must be a model in second order form. In structural dynamics one is interested in either a modal model of the system, or in a model including a mass matrix, stiffness matrix and a damping matrix. In this paper, algorithms are developed that convert a modern state space realization into the above two representations of interest in mechanical systems. The algorithm can be used with any identification methods that produce a modern state variable representation such as the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA), its modified version by data correlation (ERA/DC), and combinations of these with Observer/Kalman Filter Identification (OKID). An algorithm is developed that allows one to identify the damping matrix in a model representation, so that one determines how near to modal the damping is in the system, and can therefore understand the degree to which the modes are coupled by the damping in the system. A second algorithm produced the mass, damping, and stiffness matrices, given the input and output matrices. It is assumed that the number of sensors (or the number of actuators) is greater than or equal to the number of modes in the system, and it is proved that this is a necessary condition to be able to uniquely identify these matrices. Experience with examples suggests that a singular value truncation involved in these algorithms can help one determine the true system order. This truncation has the benefit of knowledge of the correct form for a mechanical system model, which is not present in the modern control identification algorithm.

Tseng, Dong-Huei↗

System Identification of a Vortex Lattice Aerodynamic Model

The state-space presentation of an aerodynamic vortex model is considered from a classical and system identification perspective. Using an aerodynamic vortex model as a numerical simulator of a wing tunnel experiment, both full state and limited state data or measurements are considered. Two possible approaches for system identification are presented and modal controllability and observability are also considered. The theory then is applied to the system identification of a flow over an aerodynamic delta wing and typical results are presented.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

The role of modeling and flight testing in rotorcraft parameter identification

The importance of recognizing that each lower-order model used for rotorcraft parameter identification has a limited range of applicability is illustrated in some detail. Examples are given to illustrate the use of conditioning the test input signals and the potential of using multi-axis test inputs to enhance the parameter identifiability. The paper discusses the benefits and limitations of using frequency sweeps as flight-test input signals for identification of frequency response for rotorcraft and for the subsequent fitting of parametric transfer-function models. This paper demonstrates the major role played by analytical modeling and the understanding of the physics involved in the rotorcraft flight dynamics, particularly understanding the limit of lower-order models, in achieving successful rotorcraft parameter identification.

Chen, R. T. N.↗

The dynamic flexural response of propeller blades

The determination of the torsional constants of three blade models having NACA four-digit symmetrical airfoil cross sections is presented. Values were obtained for these models analytically and experimentally. Results were also obtained for three other models having rectangular, elliptical, and parabolic cross sections. Complete modal analyses were performed for five blade models. The identification of modal parameters was done for cases when the blades were modeled as either undamped or damped multi-degree-of-freedom systems. For the experimental phase of this study, the modal testing was performed using a Dual Channel FFT analyzer and an impact hammer (which produced an impulsive excitation). The natural frequency and damping of each mode in the frequency range up to 2 kHz were measured. A small computer code was developed to calculate the dynamic response of the blade models for comparison with the experimental results. A comparison of the undamped and damped cases was made for all five blade models at the instant of maximum excitation force. The program was capable of handling models where the excitation forces were distributed arbitrarily along the length of the blade.

Djordjevic, S. Z.↗

Harnessing Collaborative Learning Automata to Guide Multi-objective Optimization based Inverse Analysis for Structural Damage Identification

Structural damage identification based on physical models is often transformed into an optimization problem that minimizes the difference between measurement information of structure being monitored and the model prediction in the parametric space. However, the objective function in this context often exhibits multimodality, involving high-dimensional variables due to the reliance on finite element models for damage identification. These features pose challenges to optimization algorithms, where entrapment in local solutions can lead to false positives and false negatives in damage identification. In this research, we propose a reinforcement learning based multi-swarm optimizer to tackle such challenges in pursuit of a small yet diverse solution set that can capture the true damage scenario as one of the solutions. The proposed method leverages the flexibility of the particle swarm optimizer and incorporates novel strategies of metaheuristics to realize targeted improvement. To enable the particle swarm to adaptively select the appropriate search strategy based on the current environment, we adopt the learning automata technique, which sidesteps the need for reward strategy selection that is usually ad hoc at each step of the search. The integration harnesses the automatic learning and self-adaptation capabilities of learning automata, enabling the particles to navigate based on environmental signals. This leads to accumulated probabilities tied to advantageous movements, fostering an adaptive exploration of particles in the search space. The proposed approach is first validated through implementing into benchmark test cases with comparisons. It is then applied to structural damage identification with piezoelectric admittance experimental signals. `The results highlight the capability of the algorithm to identify a small solution set with high accuracy to match the actual damage scenario.

Yang Zhang↗

Proceedings of the Workshop on Identification and Control of Flexible Space Structures, volume 1

Identification and control of flexible space structures were studied. Exploration of the most advanced modeling estimation, identification and control methodologies to flexible space structures was discussed. The following general areas were discussed: space platforms, antennas, and flight experiments; control/structure interactions - modeling, integrated design and optimization, control and stabilization, and shape control; control technology; control of space stations; large antenna control, dynamics and control experiments, and control/structure interaction experiments.

Rodriguez, G.↗

A Deep Generative Model for Non-Intrusive Identification of EV Charging Profiles

The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) brings environmental benefits and technical challenges to power grids. An identification algorithm which can accurately extract individual EV charging profiles out of widely available smart meter measurements has attracted great interests. This paper proposes a non-intrusive identification framework for EV charging profile extraction, which is driven by deep generative models (DGM). First, the proposed DGM is designed as a representation layer embedded into the Markov process and used to model the joint probability distribution of available time-series data. A novel contribution is to approximate posterior distributions by neural networks whose parameters are obtained by variational inference and supervised learning. Second, the EV charging status is inferred from the DGM via dynamic programming. Lastly, the desired EV charging profile can be reconstructed by the rated power of EV models and inferred status. Compared with the benchmark Hidden Markov Models, the proposed framework can better handle noise in data with less computational complexity and better overall accuracy performances with smaller recall. The proposed framework is validated by numerical experiments on the Pecan Street dataset.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Lithium-thionyl chloride battery safety

Primary lithium cells which use LiAlCl4/SOCl2 electrolyte exhibit high energy density and long life. Currently these cells pose a safety problem since they have been found to vent or explode. This paper summarizes experiments to resolve the safety problem of Li-SOCl2 cells by thermal modeling and identification of possibly hazardous intermediates formed during discharge of these cells. A thermal model and mechanism for the reduction of SOCl2 are presented, as well as a discussion of their application to Li-SOCl2 cell safety.

Carter, B.↗

Prioritizing Countries by Concern Regarding Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction Materials

This article presents a global prioritization methodology that evaluates the relative risks of non-state actor acquisition of materials that could be used in chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high explosive Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) from the country’s relevant infrastructure. Prioritization is based on three domains: 1. Assessing relative scale of materials in each country, 2. The country’s corresponding security posture, and 3. The presence of threat actors. The output is a list of countries prioritized from greatest risk to least. Rather than providing an overall 1 to N ranking, however, the results are placed into tiers based upon their natural groupings within the three domains. The countries in the highest tiers are flagged as potential US national security concern; those scoring in the middle and at the bottom are flagged as posing lower US national security concern. A systematic approach assesses each country by leveraging many disciplines, such as risk and decision analysis, as well as expert judgement. A quantitative value model based on Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) organizes the objectives scoring criteria into a value tree using lessons learned from previous studies, published literature, and expert judgement. The article presents the prioritization categories and corresponding value model scoring criteria to include measurement type, weight, range, and value preference. Country names and data are notional in order to share the details on the underlying methodology and model without identification of actual security risks. A deliberative process addresses factors external to the model and scrutinizes inputs, methodology, model, and results.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Robust PCA-Deep Belief Network Surrogate Model for Distribution System Topology Identification with DERs

With the expansion of distribution networks and increased penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate distribution network topology in real-time. In this paper, a robust principal component analysis coupled deep belief network (PCA-DBN) surrogate model is proposed for distribution system topology identification. It integrates the benefits of robust feature extraction from PCA to deal with data quality issues and filter out noise, and the strength of DBN in capturing the nonlinear relationship between voltage amplitudes and the binary states of switchable connections. This also significantly reduces the DBN training complexity without loss of accuracy. It is shown that the widely used standard deviation of voltage drop and the voltage covariance matrix features yield less accuracy as compared to that of the voltage amplitudes in presence of high penetration of DERs and ZIP loads. Comparison results with other alternatives, such as the random forest (RF), multi-output regression (MOR) and the traditional DBN methods demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve a much higher topology identification accuracy while maintaining robustness to missing data and measurement noise under various penetration levels of DERs.

deep belief network↗