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At least 325 records · Page 18

Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models that can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0–100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, temperature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temperature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. Here, by providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about factors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Second Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based mode with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that are envisioned for ASAC. We describe a second-generation Air Carrier Investment Model that meets these requirements. The enhanced model incorporates econometric results from the supply and demand curves faced by U.S.-scheduled passenger air carriers. It uses detailed information about their fleets in 1995 to make predictions about future aircraft purchases. It enables analysts with the ability to project revenue passenger-miles flown, airline industry employment, airline operating profit margins, numbers and types of aircraft in the fleet, and changes in aircraft manufacturing employment under various user-defined scenarios.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

Analysis of Spiral Bevel Gearing

Program generalized for automated finite-element-method model generation. Tedious task of finite-element-method (FEM) model preparation greatly reduced by development of preprocessing program for automated model generation. Utility of program, including ability to rapidly evaluate parametric changes, demonstrated for spiral, helical, and spiral bevel gearing. Postprocessing program also developed, aids in review and interpretation of calculated FEM stresses.

Drago, R. J.↗

NASTRAN analysis of Tokamak vacuum vessel using interactive graphics

Isoparametric quadrilateral and triangular elements were used to represent the vacuum vessel shell structure. For toroidally symmetric loadings, MPCs were employed across model boundaries and rigid format 24 was invoked. Nonsymmetric loadings required the use of the cyclic symmetry analysis available with rigid format 49. NASTRAN served as an important analysis tool in the Tokamak design effort by providing a reliable means for assessing structural integrity. Interactive graphics were employed in the finite element model generation and in the post-processing of results. It was felt that model generation and checkout with interactive graphics reduced the modelling effort and debugging man-hours significantly.

Miller, A.↗

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Recovering Topology of Nested Volumes Represented by Single Closed Surfaces

As scientific computing abilities continue to advance, so too have the efforts to model and simulate highly complex geometries in radiation environments. Modeling has advanced from primitive constructive solid geometry (CSG) to voxelized models, and now to high fidelity polygon mesh models. While polygon mesh surface models are very accurate, most Monte Carlo codes do not allow for their direct use. Often they are converted to voxel or tetrahedral mesh models and then used with the physics codes. The Direct Accelerated Geometry Monte Carlo (DAGMC) software package has the ability to efficiently run transport calculations directly on tessellated surface models. Typically the surface meshes used for DAGMC calculations come from CAD-based geometry models generated by solid modeling software. In some cases geometries of interest, like human phantoms, are generated by other means and may not contain all of the necessary information for particle transport. For example, mesh geometries in the OBJ file format contain vertex and connectivity data for each surface, but do not have any information about surface topology. These types of file formats necessitate a tool that can build a hierarchy of surfaces and reconstruct the topological information. The generate hierarchy tool was developed for this purpose. The following summary will explain the algorithm behind the tool, describe a test case, and finally demonstrate a real-world application of the tool with an MCNP5 calculation that directly uses a polygon mesh human phantom.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Model for Generation of Neutrons in a Compact Diode with Laser-Plasma Anode and Suppression of Electron Conduction Using a Permanent Cylindrical Magnet

A model for acceleration of deuterons and generation of neutrons in a compact laser-plasma diode with electron isolation using magnetic field generated by a hollow cylindrical permanent magnet is presented. Experimental and computer-simulated neutron yields are compared for the diode structure under study. An accelerating neutron tube with a relatively high neutron generation efficiency can be constructed using suppression of electron conduction with the aid of a magnet placed in the vacuum volume.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Model for Generation of Martian Surface Dust, Soil and Rock Coatings: Physical vs. Chemical Interactions, and Palagonitic Plus Hydrothermal Alteration

This model is one of many possible scenarios to explain the generation of the current surface material on Mars using chemical, magnetic and spectroscopic data from Mars and geologic analogs from terrestrial sites. One basic premise is that there are physical and chemical interactions of the atmospheric dust particles and that these two processes create distinctly different results. Physical processes distribute dust particles on rocks, forming physical rock coatings, and on the surface between rocks forming soil units; these are reversible processes. Chemical reactions of the dust/soil particles create alteration rinds on rock surfaces or duricrust surface units, both of which are relatively permanent materials. According to this model the mineral components of the dust/soil particles are derived from a combination of "typical" palagonitic weathering of volcanic ash and hydrothermally altered components, primarily from steam vents or fumeroles. Both of these altered materials are composed of tiny particles, about 1 micron or smaller, that are aggregates of silicates and iron oxide/oxyhydroxide/sulfate phases. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Bishop, J. L.↗

Challenges in Integrating Nondestructive Evaluation and Finite Element Methods for Realistic Structural Analysis

Capabilities and expertise related to the development of links between nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and finite element analysis (FEA) at Glenn Research Center (GRC) are demonstrated. Current tools to analyze data produced by computed tomography (CT) scans are exercised to help assess the damage state in high temperature structural composite materials. A utility translator was written to convert velocity (an image processing software) STL data file to a suitable CAD-FEA type file. Finite element analyses are carried out with MARC, a commercial nonlinear finite element code, and the analytical results are discussed. Modeling was established by building MSC/Patran (a pre and post processing finite element package) generated model and comparing it to a model generated by Velocity in conjunction with MSC/Patran Graphics. Modeling issues and results are discussed in this paper. The entire process that outlines the tie between the data extracted via NDE and the finite element modeling and analysis is fully described.

Abdul-Aziz, Ali↗

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

Spar, J.↗

Evaluation of OpenAI Codex for HPC Parallel Programming Models Kernel Generation

We evaluate AI-assisted generative capabilities on fundamental numerical kernels in high-performance computing (HPC), including AXPY, GEMV, GEMM, SpMV, Jacobi Stencil, and CG. We test the generated kernel codes for a variety of language-supported programming models, including (1) C++ (e.g., OpenMP [including offload], OpenACC, Kokkos, SyCL, CUDA, and HIP), (2) Fortran (e.g., OpenMP [including offload] and OpenACC), (3) Python (e.g., numpy, Numba, cuPy, and pyCUDA), and (4) Julia (e.g., Threads, CUDA.jl, AMDGPU.jl, and KernelAbstractions.jl). We use the GitHub Copilot capabilities powered by the GPT-based OpenAI Codex available in Visual Studio Code as of April 2023 to generate a vast amount of implementations given simple + + prompt variants. To quantify and compare the results, we propose a proficiency metric around the initial 10 suggestions given for each prompt. Results suggest that the OpenAI Codex outputs for C++ correlate with the adoption and maturity of programming models. For example, OpenMP and CUDA score really high, whereas HIP is still lacking. We found that prompts from either a targeted language such as Fortran or the more general purpose Python can benefit from adding code keywords, while Julia prompts perform acceptably well for its mature programming models (e.g., Threads and CUDA.jl). We expect for these benchmarks to provide a point of reference for each programming model's community. Overall, understanding the convergence of large language models, AI, and HPC is crucial due to its rapidly evolving nature and how it is redefining human-computer interactions.

Godoy, William↗

Model reduction by trimming for a class of semi-Markov reliability models and the corresponding error bound

Semi-Markov processes have proved to be an effective and convenient tool to construct models of systems that achieve reliability by redundancy and reconfiguration. These models are able to depict complex system architectures and to capture the dynamics of fault arrival and system recovery. A disadvantage of this approach is that the models can be extremely large, which poses both a model and a computational problem. Techniques are needed to reduce the model size. Because these systems are used in critical applications where failure can be expensive, there must be an analytically derived bound for the error produced by the model reduction technique. A model reduction technique called trimming is presented that can be applied to a popular class of systems. Automatic model generation programs were written to help the reliability analyst produce models of complex systems. This method, trimming, is easy to implement and the error bound easy to compute. Hence, the method lends itself to inclusion in an automatic model generator.

White, Allan L.↗

De novo design of protein structure and function with RFdiffusion

Abstract There has been considerable recent progress in designing new proteins using deep-learning methods 1–9 . Despite this progress, a general deep-learning framework for protein design that enables solution of a wide range of design challenges, including de novo binder design and design of higher-order symmetric architectures, has yet to be described. Diffusion models 10,11 have had considerable success in image and language generative modelling but limited success when applied to protein modelling, probably due to the complexity of protein backbone geometry and sequence–structure relationships. Here we show that by fine-tuning the RoseTTAFold structure prediction network on protein structure denoising tasks, we obtain a generative model of protein backbones that achieves outstanding performance on unconditional and topology-constrained protein monomer design, protein binder design, symmetric oligomer design, enzyme active site scaffolding and symmetric motif scaffolding for therapeutic and metal-binding protein design. We demonstrate the power and generality of the method, called RoseTTAFold diffusion (RFdiffusion), by experimentally characterizing the structures and functions of hundreds of designed symmetric assemblies, metal-binding proteins and protein binders. The accuracy of RFdiffusion is confirmed by the cryogenic electron microscopy structure of a designed binder in complex with influenza haemagglutinin that is nearly identical to the design model. In a manner analogous to networks that produce images from user-specified inputs, RFdiffusion enables the design of diverse functional proteins from simple molecular specifications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

A comparison of probabilistic generative frameworks for molecular simulations

Generative artificial intelligence is now a widely used tool in molecular science. Despite the popularity of probabilistic generative models, numerical experiments benchmarking their performance on molecular data are lacking. Here, in this work, we introduce and explain several classes of generative models, broadly sorted into two categories: flow-based models and diffusion models. We select three representative models: neural spline flows, conditional flow matching, and denoising diffusion probabilistic models, and examine their accuracy, computational cost, and generation speed across datasets with tunable dimensionality, complexity, and modal asymmetry. Our findings are varied, with no one framework being the best for all purposes. In a nutshell, (i) neural spline flows do best at capturing mode asymmetry present in low-dimensional data, (ii) conditional flow matching outperforms other models for high-dimensional data with low complexity, and (iii) denoising diffusion probabilistic models appear the best for low-dimensional data with high complexity. Our datasets include a Gaussian mixture model and the dihedral torsion angle distribution of the Aib9 peptide, generated via a molecular dynamics simulation. We hope our taxonomy of probabilistic generative frameworks and numerical results may guide model selection for a wide range of molecular tasks.

Artificial intelligence↗

A kinetic model for stress generation in thin films grown from energetic vapor fluxes

We have developed a kinetic model for residual stress generation in thin films grown from energetic vapor fluxes, encountered, e.g., during sputter deposition. The new analytical model considers sub-surface point defects created by atomic peening, along with processes treated in already existing stress models for non-energetic deposition, i.e., thermally activated diffusion processes at the surface and the grain boundary. According to the new model, ballistically induced sub-surface defects can get incorporated as excess atoms at the grain boundary, remain trapped in the bulk, or annihilate at the free surface, resulting in a complex dependence of the steady-state stress on the grain size, the growth rate, as well as the energetics of the incoming particle flux. We compare calculations from the model with in situ stress measurements performed on a series of Mo films sputter-deposited at different conditions and having different grain sizes. The model is able to reproduce the observed increase of compressive stress with increasing growth rate, behavior that is the opposite of what is typically seen under non-energetic growth conditions. On a grander scale, this study is a step towards obtaining a comprehensive understanding of stress generation and evolution in vapor deposited polycrystalline thin films.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Satellite camera image navigation

Pixels within a satellite camera (1, 2) image are precisely located in terms of latitude and longitude on a celestial body, such as the earth, being imaged. A computer (60) on the earth generates models (40, 50) of the satellite's orbit and attitude, respectively. The orbit model (40) is generated from measurements of stars and landmarks taken by the camera (1, 2), and by range data. The orbit model (40) is an expression of the satellite's latitude and longitude at the subsatellite point, and of the altitude of the satellite, as a function of time, using as coefficients (K) the six Keplerian elements at epoch. The attitude model (50) is based upon star measurements taken by each camera (1, 2). The attitude model (50) is a set of expressions for the deviations in a set of mutually orthogonal reference optical axes (x, y, z) as a function of time, for each camera (1, 2). Measured data is fit into the models (40, 50) using a walking least squares fit algorithm. A transformation computer (66 ) transforms pixel coordinates as telemetered by the camera (1, 2) into earth latitude and longitude coordinates, using the orbit and attitude models (40, 50).

Kamel, Ahmed A.↗