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DOE OSTI2023

Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output

Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and control of Zener pinning via phase field and ensemble learning

Zener pinning refers to the dispersion of fine particles which influences grain size distribution via movement of grain boundaries in a polycrystalline material. Grain size distribution in polycrystals has a significant impact on their properties including physical, chemical, mechanical, and optical to name a few. We explore the use of Phase-field modeling and machine-learning techniques to understand and improve the control of grain size distribution via Zener pinning in polycrystalline materials. We develop a machine learning model that determines the relative importance of various parameters to exercise microstructure control via Zener pinning. Our workflow combines high-throughput phase-field simulations and machine learning to address the computational bottlenecks associated with large-scale simulations as well as identify features necessary for microstructure control in polycrystals. A random forest (RF) regression model was developed to predict grain sizes based on five Phase-field model parameters, achieving an average prediction error of 0.72 nm for the training data and 1.44 nm for the test data. The importance of the input parameters is analyzed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach which reveals that diffusivity, volume fraction, and particle diameter are the most important parameters in determining the final grain size. These findings will allow us to select the best second-phase particles, optimize grain size distributions and thus design microstructures with the desired properties. The developed method is a highly versatile and generalizable approach that can be used to assess the combined effects of individual features in the presence of multiple variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) Assessment Results Based On Sludge Batch 10 Projections from December 2021, February 2022 and August 2022

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is currently preparing to initiate processing of Sludge Batch 10 (SB10), which is comprised of material from Tanks 11H, 13H, 15H, and 26F, Alternate Feed Stock-2 and Sodium Reactor Experiment material from H-Canyon. Frit 473 (8B 2 O 3 -8Li 2 O-5Na 2 O-79SiO 2 , in weight percent) was recommended for sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) based on previous assessments of SB10 projections with the DWPF Product Composition Control System (PCCS) glass property models and their associated Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) constraints. Due to the lower processing rate of Sludge Batch 9 (SB9), the heel in Tank 40 is anticipated to be greater than 40 inches at the projected start of SB10 processing to meet the upcoming Accelerated Basin Deinventory addition dates in Tank 51 for Sludge Batch 11. In December 2021 and February 2022, Savannah River Remediation System Planning provided updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projections based on heels of 74 inches, 84 inches, 94 inches and 103.4 inches. Savannah River Mission Completion (SRMC) subsequently pursued Wash Cycle Y to further reduce the total sulfur in the sludge batch and increase processing flexibility at DWPF. In August 2022, SRMC System Planning provided an updated SB10 Tank 40 blend projection with a 76 inch-heel representing Decant Y2 and 60 kilogallons of bearing water inleakage that is anticipated during the Tank 51 to Tank 40 transfer. The objectives of this task were to: • Determine the impact on the operating windows for SO and coupled processing • Determine whether any composition gaps exist between the already completed SB10 variability study and the reprojected SB10 glass composition region • Compare the SB10 reprojected glass composition region to the DWPF PCCS model development and validation ranges to ensure that compositional gaps do not exist between the data sets. This report documents the results of these evaluations. Calculation-based frit assessments were performed using the DWPF PCCS glass property models and their associated MAR constraints. Evaluated parameters for coupled processing included the following transfer volumes per Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank batch: 5700 gallons of Tank 40 sludge, 2400-4500 gallons of the SWPF monosodium titanate (MST) and sludge solids stream, and 15,000 gallons of strip effluent. Based on these MAR assessment results, Frit 473 remains viable for SB10 processing. A target waste loading (WL) of 36% is possible for SO operation and single strike (0.4 g/L MST) coupled processing up to 600 mg/L of SB9 insoluble sludge solids at a nominal transfer volume of ~2800 gallons. Increasing the single strike transfer volume to 4500 gallons may reduce the maximum WL below 40%. Operating windows are 12 percentage points for SO processing and 14-16 percentage points for coupled processing. Frit 625 allows for a target WL of 36% and is acceptable for use during the SB9 to SB10 transition to deplete remaining inventory as needed. Operating windows are 8 percentage points for SO processing and 12-14 percentage points for coupled processing. Predictive PCCS evaluations performed at DWPF will provide insight into batch-specific acceptability at desired WLs for compositions having expected oxide ratios during processing versus the extreme vertices (corner points) evaluated in this study. The reprojected SB10 glass composition region generally overlaps the previously evaluated SB10 variability study composition region. Thus, the minor composition shift of these updated SB10 projections indicates that no additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate acceptability relative to the chemical durability of the Environmental Assessment benchmark glass and predictability using the current PCCS models for durability. Based on a comparison of the PCCS model development and validation data to the reprojected SB10 glass composition region, the viscosity and liquidus temperature models will reliably predict SB10 compositions. No additional glasses are necessary to demonstrate predictability of these models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the minimal bias model

Here, we present cosmological parameter constraints from a blind joint analysis of three two-point correlation functions measured from the Year 3 Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC-Y3) imaging data, covering about 416 deg 2 , and the SDSS DR11 spectroscopic galaxies spanning the redshift range [0.15, 0.70]. We subdivide the SDSS galaxies into three luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited samples separated in redshift, each of which acts as a large-scale structure tracer characterized by the measurement of the projected correlation function, w p ⁡(R). We also use the measurements of the galaxy-galaxy weak-lensing signal Δ⁢Σ⁡(R) for each of these SDSS samples which act as lenses for a secure sample of source galaxies selected from the HSC-Y3 shape catalog based on their photometric redshifts. We combine these measurements with the cosmic shear correlation functions, ξ ± ⁡($\vartheta$) measured for our HSC source sample. We model these observables with the minimal bias model of the galaxy clustering observables in the context of a flat Λ⁢CDM cosmology. We use conservative scale cuts, R >12 and 8⁢ℎ -1 Mpc for Δ⁢Σ and w p , respectively, where the minimal bias model is valid, in addition to conservative prior on the residual bias in the mean redshift of the HSC photometric source galaxies. We present various validation tests of our model as well as analysis methods. Our baseline analysis yields S 8 = $0.77⁢5^{+0.043}_{-0.038}$ (68% C.I.) for the Λ⁢CDM model, after marginalizing over uncertainties in other parameters. Our value of S 8 is consistent with that from the Planck 2018 data, but the credible interval of our result is still relatively large. We show that various internal consistency tests based on different splits of the data are passed. Our results are statistically consistent with those of a companion paper, which extends this analysis to smaller scales with an emulator-based halo model, using Δ⁢Σ⁡(R) and w p ⁡(R) down to R >3 and 2⁢ℎ -1 Mpc, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A control oriented comprehensive degradation model for battery energy storage system life prediction

In order to ensure that stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) provide reliable energy buffering, both for power quality and economic purposes, the degradation must be considered. Cell degradation involves various side reactions and is highly dependent on its operating conditions. To accurately track cell degradation and predict its impact on battery behavior, a comprehensive physics-based degradation model based on an electrolyte phase-enhanced single particle (SP) model is developed. Key degradation physics, namely solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation and growth, Li plating on the graphite anode, and Mn dissolution on cathode of nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NMC622) are considered. The model is validated against experimental capacity data. The results reveal that the deposition rate of both SEI layer and Li metal increase as the charge voltage increases. At the cathode side, the solvent oxidation rate determines the Mn dissolution rate. As a result, the volume fraction of NMC622 in the cathode continually decreases at a gradually increasing rate.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A thermally-limited bubble growth model for the relaxation time of superheated fuels

Here, we propose a novel approach to evaluate the relaxation time of vapor bubble growth in the context of the flash boiling of a superheated liquid. In alternative to the empirical correlation derived from superheated water experiments almost fifty years ago, the new model describes the thermally-dominated growth of vapor bubbles in terms that are dependent on the local Jakob number (the ratio of sensible heat to latent heat during phase change) and the number density of vapor bubbles. The model is tested by plugging the resulting relaxation time into the Homogenous Relaxation Model (HRM). Flash-boiling simulations carried out with HRM are compared with n-pentane (C 5 H 12 ) injection and boil-off experiments conducted with a real-size, axial-hole, transparent gasoline injector discharging into a constant-pressure vessel. The long-distance microscopy images from the experiments, processed to derive the projected liquid volume (PLV) of the spray, provide a unique set of time-resolved validation data for direct fuel injection simulations. At conditions ranging from flaring to mild and minimal flash boiling, we show that switching to the new relaxation time improves the agreement with the measured PLV profiles with respect to the standard empirical model. Particularly at flaring conditions, the predicted increase in gas cooling caused by rapid vapor production is shown to be more consistent with the observed boil-off.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control of solvent adsorption in porous liquids through solvent-solvent interactions

Type 3 Porous Liquids (PLs) are a new class of materials that offer transformative potential for gas capture and utilization. These PLs are comprised of a bulky solvent with a suspended empty nanoporous material that enables selective and high-capacity capture from dilute and complex gas steams. The relationship between the nanoporous material, the structure of the solvent molecules, and the time dependence of solvent adsorption into the nanoporous material governs long term adsorption properties. Herein, molecular dynamics (MD) calculations evaluated the solvent dynamics of nine neat solvents with a broad range of chemical identities and experimental density measurements probed the time-dependent adsorption of these solvents into the ZIF-8 metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) to form PL dispersions over three weeks. Two of the nine dispersion, using glyceryl triacetate and 2’-hydroxyacetopheneone as solvents, presented sufficiently low solvent infiltration—characterized by solvent adsorption less than 40% of the ZIF-8 pore volume—to be viable as PLs. The experimental solvent adsorption data for ZIF-8 dispersed in the four aromatic solvents (acetophenone, methylbenzoate, 2-isopropylphenol, and 2’-hydroxyacetophenone) was fit to a kinetic model to quantify rate of solvent adsorption into ZIF-8. The rates of adsorption of these four similar-sized solvents demonstrated that solvent adsorption is slowed and limited by solvent clustering dynamics that are, in turn, driven by intermolecular hydrogen bonding. Ultimately, experimental solvent sorption measurements indicated that glyceryl triacetate and 2’-hydroxyacetophenone with ZIF-8 formed PLs with the most stable porosity and the greatest potential for gas capture. In conclusion, the combined experimental-computational materials exploration framework used here reveals a novel relationship between molecular scale solvent dynamics and macroscale solvent adsorption kinetics critical for the discovery and rapid evaluation of Type 3 PL compositions.

Hydrogen bonding↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increasing aggregate size reduces single-cell organic carbon incorporation by hydrogel-embedded wetland microbes

Abstract Microbial degradation of organic carbon in sediments is impacted by the availability of oxygen and substrates for growth. To better understand how particle size and redox zonation impact microbial organic carbon incorporation, techniques that maintain spatial information are necessary to quantify elemental cycling at the microscale. In this study, we produced hydrogel microspheres of various diameters (100, 250, and 500 μm) and inoculated them with an aerobic heterotrophic bacterium isolated from a freshwater wetland (Flavobacterium sp.), and in a second experiment with a microbial community from an urban lacustrine wetland. The hydrogel-embedded microbial populations were incubated with 13C-labeled substrates to quantify organic carbon incorporation into biomass via nanoSIMS. Additionally, luminescent nanosensors enabled spatially explicit measurements of oxygen concentrations inside the microspheres. The experimental data were then incorporated into a reactive-transport model to project long-term steady-state conditions. Smaller (100 μm) particles exhibited the highest microbial cell-specific growth per volume, but also showed higher absolute activity near the surface compared to the larger particles (250 and 500 μm). The experimental results and computational models demonstrate that organic carbon availability was not high enough to allow steep oxygen gradients and as a result, all particle sizes remained well-oxygenated. Our study provides a foundational framework for future studies investigating spatially dependent microbial activity in aggregates using isotopically labeled substrates to quantify growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

THERMAL MODELING OF HANFORD CESIUM AND STRONTIUM CANISTERS DURING SIMULATED LOADING

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was built to simulate planned testing of heater assemblies within a canister and overpack for the Hanford Lead Canister (HLC) project. The HLC is a canister storage system that will contain heaters to simulate the decay heat of nuclear material and provide the canister storage system with environmental conditions equivalent to the operating conditions on a dry storage pad. The HLC will be equipped with long-term data collection and monitoring systems to provide an early warning of corrosion, pitting, cracking, or other signs of canister degradation that might threaten the integrity of the containment boundary over the potentially long term of dry storage. An important part of the HLC development is to make pretest numerical predictions for the behavior of the heated canister during the simulated radiolytic decay heat testing, which simulates the dry storage system during loading operations. The simulated radiolytic decay heat test is planned for mid-2024 in a configuration that includes the heater assembly, overpack, and canister, but with the lids removed to allow loading cesium and strontium capsules into the canister. One of the goals of the test is to evaluate the thermal behavior of the canister and overpack assembly in the ambient air of the test facility, which will provide data critical to validating the thermal models and understanding how the HLC will perform as a system once deployed. To best approximate real-world conditions, the CFD model includes the full air volume of the mock-up truck bay the heated canister test will be performed in, enabling detailed investigation of how the heated canister affects airflow around it. Rigorous pre-deployment testing of the complete HLC cask and canister system is intended to be completed before the HLC is deployed in the 2028 timeframe. This study presents the pre-test temperature predictions of the simulated radiolytic decay heat test. A description of the heater assembly, canister, and overpack system is presented. The model was developed with the commercial CFD software STAR-CCM+. An uncertainty analysis was run with the CFD model to determine the uncertainty in the temperature predictions and provide a range over which the predicted temperatures are expected to vary. The uncertainty analysis was preformed by coupling STAR-CCM+ with the software Dakota, which provides advanced parametric analyses, including quantification of margins and uncertainty with computational models. This work is expected to provide insight into SNF canister behavior.

Carpenter-Graffy, Dina E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utah FORGE Phase 3 Native State Model: 2022 Update

This is the Phase 3 native state model update. The Phase 3 numerical model represents a significant subsurface volume below the FORGE site footprint. The model domain of 4.0 km x 4.0 km x 4.2 km is located approximately between depths of 4000 to 4200 meters below land surface. This data archive consists of 10 files, 4 of which are simulation input files and the remaining 6 are simulation output files. There is an included readme.txt file that contains details on each of the data files. The input files include meshes, FALCON code inputs, tabulated data of water properties, temperature values, and model boundaries. The output files include simulation outfiles and point data of modeled material properties.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

RANS Simulation of Variable Density Turbulent Round Jets with Coflow using xRAGE Hydrodynamic Code and BHR Turbulence Models

This work for the fiscal year 2023 (FY23) is a continuation of previous efforts to evaluate the BHR turbulence models for their ability to accurately simulate variable density turbulent round jets with coflow. As before, RANS simulations are carried out using the xRAGE hydrodynamic code. The following are some of the previous findings. Israel showed that i) the symmetry boundary conditions for the BHR models in axisymmetric simulations were in error, ii) three grids of different resolutions did not lead to converging solutions, and iii) BHR 3.1 simulation exhibited instabilities and did not reach a steady state. Saenz and Rauenzahn derived and implemented into xRAGE the correct BHR boundary conditions at the symmetry axis. Cline conducted sensitivity studies with various parameters including the BHR models (versions 2, 3.1 and 4), gravity, material pressure, specific heat, initial turbulent kinetic energy and initial turbulent length scale, and found that the largest factor impacting on simulation results was the BHR model version, followed by the initial turbulent length scale. In addition, freeze boundary conditions at the exit and the side wall of the computational domain were used to remove anomalous flow behavior. Cline adjusted the inlet jet velocity, initial turbulent kinetic energy and initial turbulent length scale to obtain the best reasonable match with the experimental data of Charonko and Prestridge. It was found that the BHR 2 and 3.1 models performed in a similar manner, but the BHR 2 model produced much lower levels of density-specific-volume covariance and turbulent kinetic energy. The main focus for the FY23 is to study the effects of computational parameters related to the boundary conditions, mesh, domain size and timestep size. The reasoning behind this is that, unless simulation results can be shown to be reasonably independent from the aforementioned computational parameters, it would be difficult to attribute any discrepancies between simulation and experimental results to turbulence models. This important aspect has largely been overlooked in the previous years, and therefore will be studied comprehensively here. Additionally, effects of varying the initial turbulent length scale will be examined because it was previously identified as a major factor affecting the flow fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting partner fitness based on spatial structuring in a light-driven microbial community

Microbial communities have vital roles in systems essential to human health and agriculture, such as gut and soil microbiomes, and there is growing interest in engineering designer consortia for applications in biotechnology ( e . g ., personalized probiotics, bioproduction of high-value products, biosensing). The capacity to monitor and model metabolite exchange in dynamic microbial consortia can provide foundational information important to understand the community level behaviors that emerge, a requirement for building novel consortia. Where experimental approaches for monitoring metabolic exchange are technologically challenging, computational tools can enable greater access to the fate of both chemicals and microbes within a consortium. In this study, we developed an in-silico model of a synthetic microbial consortia of sucrose-secreting Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 and Escherichia coli W. Our model was built on the NUFEB framework for Individual-based Modeling (IbM) and optimized for biological accuracy using experimental data. We showed that the relative level of sucrose secretion regulates not only the steady-state support for heterotrophic biomass, but also the temporal dynamics of consortia growth. In order to determine the importance of spatial organization within the consortium, we fit a regression model to spatial data and used it to accurately predict colony fitness. We found that some of the critical parameters for fitness prediction were inter-colony distance, initial biomass, induction level, and distance from the center of the simulation volume. We anticipate that the synergy between experimental and computational approaches will improve our ability to design consortia with novel function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solar Neutrino Detection with a Pixelated Liquid-Argon Time Projection Chamber

This thesis presents a study of low-energy solar neutrino detection using large-scale LArTPCs, focussing on novel pixelated readout technologies. Solar neutrinos offer a unique probe of fundamental neutrino properties and solar physics, but their detection in the MeV range is challenged by backgrounds. We investigate two complementary technologies: SoLAr, which integrates LArPix-based pixelated charge collection with Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) in a hybrid anode design for simultaneous charge and light detection; and Q-Pix, a triggerless pixelated readout architecture based on charge integrate-reset circuits with local clocks, where Reset Time Differences encode ionisation waveforms via time-to-charge conversion. Two SoLAr prototypes were developed and operated, demonstrating VUV-sensitive SiPM performance in liquid argon and accurate charge-light signal matching with a charge detection threshold of $\sim 100 \mathrm{keV}$. We also implement a complete simulation and reconstruction framework, incorporating realistic detector geometry, electron transport, readout response, and detailed signal and background models, including intrinsic argon and radon progeny, as well as site-specific $\gamma$-ray and neutron fluxes. For Q-Pix, we demonstrate that with a pixel size of $4\times 4$ mm$^2$ and a reset threshold of 1 fC ($\sim 0.1475$ MeV), full-scale operation produces data volumes below 1 PB per 10 ktonne-year. For SoLAr, assuming a shielded DUNE-like detector and 100 ktonne-year exposure, we project uncertainties of $0.90\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ on $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and 0.033 on $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, improving to $0.46\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and 0.025 with 400 kilotonne-year. At this higher exposure, we also obtain a day–night flux asymmetry at the level of $( -5.6 \pm 3.6 ) \%$. Combining Monte Carlo modelling, hardware validation, and advanced reconstruction techniques, this work establishes a path toward next-generation ktonne-scale LArTPCs as observatories for precision solar neutrino physics.

Ruiz Ferreira, Guilherme [Manchester U.] (ORCID:00↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coalescence, the thermal model and multi-fragmentation: the energy and volume dependence of light nuclei production in heavy ion collisions

Here, we present results of a phase space coalescence approach within the UrQMD transport and -hybrid model for a very wide range of beam energies from SIS to LHC. The coalescence model is able to qualitatively describe the whole range of experimental data with a fixed set of parameters. Some systematic deviations are observed for very low beam energies where the role of feed down from heavier nuclei and multi-fragmentation becomes relevant. The coalescence results are mostly very close to the thermal model fits. However, both the coalescence approach as well as thermal fits are struggling to simultaneously describe the triton multiplicities measured with the STAR and ALICE experiment. The double ratio of tp/d 2 , in the coalescence approach, is found to be essentially energy and centrality independent for collisions of heavy nuclei at beam energies of E lab > 10A GeV. On the other hand the clear scaling of the d/p 2 and t/p 3 ratios with the systems volume is broken for peripheral collisions, where a canonical treatment and finite size effects become more important.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

2D Dam-Break Analysis of L Lake and PAR Pond Dams Using HEC-RAS

In 1991 a dam-break study was conducted for the high hazard dams located at L Lake and PAR Pond on the Savannah River Site. Two scenarios were considered, over topping from a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), and a fair weather dam-break for either or both dams. Unfortunately, no inundation map was developed from the study. The purpose of this project was to redo the original dam-break study with improved data and methodology to generate Inundation maps to assist with emergency response and evacuation plans. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) is a free to download river analysis modeling program developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers capable of 1D and 2D hydraulic calculations. Version 5.0.7 (released March 2019) was used for this project. Digital elevation models for the area were retrieved from the US Geological Survey database and converted to a .hdf file within the program. Then the 2D flood area was identified from the contours. Both L Lake and PAR Pond were inputted as 1D storage areas because DEM data does not contain elevation values under water bodies. An elevation vs volume curve was available for both storage areas. Initial elevations were set for both scenarios. Both dams are earthen dams. The Steel Creek dam at L Lake has 6 ft diameter conduit with an upper and lower sluice gate. PAR pond dam consist of a weir and sluice gate connected to an 8 x 8 ft channel. Both outlets were modeled with a pool elevation vs discharge curve. The steel creek dam sluice gates were assumed to be fully open in all cases. As in the previous study, the dams were set to breach when they were overtopped by 1.5 ft during PMF conditions (Figure 1). A fair weather breach was set to be due to a piping failure (Figure 1). In the dual dam break during fair weather conditions the PAR pond dam fails 3 hours after Steel Creek to achieve maximum flooding in the down stream reaches. Simulation was run 3 days for each case and with a 1 minute computational interval. Maximum flooding occurs under PMF conditions with the failure of both dams. PAR pond dam fails first 16 hours and 32 minutes after the start of the simulation with the Steel creek dam failing 6 minutes later. In all cases, the bridges and roads spanning Steel Creek and Lower Three Runs will be inundated and potentially washed away. The Burtons Ferry Highway south of the storage areas will be partially flooded during PMF failure, dual fair weather failure, and PAR pond failure under fair weather conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A modified many-body dissipative particle dynamics model for mesoscopic fluid simulation: methodology, calibration, and application for hydrocarbon and water

The many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD) is a prominent mesoscopic multiphase model for fluid transport in mesoconfinement. However, it has been a long-standing challenge for mDPD (and other multiphase-enabled DPD models) to accurately predict real-fluid static and dynamic properties simultaneously. We have developed a modified mDPD model to overcome the issue and a rigorous calibration approach that uses reference data, including experimental and/or molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to parameterise the modified mDPD for real fluids. We choose heptane as a representative example of hydrocarbon in source rocks to demonstrate the model's capability to accurately predict the equation of state (EOS), free surface tension, diffusivity, and viscosity. Our timing test shows that the modified mDPD is 400–500 times faster than its MD counterpart for simulating bulk heptane in equivalent volumes. To further demonstrate the robustness of the model, we revisited the benchmark problem of mesoscopic modelling of water, in which all the previous works on DPD reported only a limited portion of the water properties. Here, we show that the modified mDPD can provide accurate modelling of water static and dynamic properties and an EOS that matches the experimental data to a large range of confinement pressure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Deep Learning Model for Predicting the Drag Coefficients of Spherical and Non-Spherical Particles,

There is yet to be a well-established drag model for non-spherical particles required in a particle-laden flow that could cover a wide range of sphericities. This talk will explore the development of a general drag model for non-spherical particles by applying deep learning using available experimental data available in the literature. The integration of several raw experimental measurements from different sources and research directions allows the training of robust Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (ML) models. Neural networks are an ML approach inspired by the inner biological workings of the brain. This work aims to develop a Deep Neural Network (DNN) that predicts drag coefficient values with the ability to adapt appropriately to unseen data. Given the limited number of data points available and the variance found within the data collected from various sources, challenges may arise when looking to train the model. Our study tests and implements various model regularization techniques and assesses different loss and activation functions for the proposed DNN. The proposed model considers a broader range of features other than sphericity and Reynold number. These features include density ratio, solid volume fraction, lengthwise and crosswise sphericity, and more. Furthermore, we present the features that play a significant role in predicting different drag coefficients through feature importance. Within the investigated parameter ranges in this study, the following conclusions can be achieved and summarized below: • An improved drag coefficient model can be developed by considering more features such as, aspect ratio, lengthwise sphericity, crosswise sphericity, and density ratio. • DNN model can predict better results compared to traditional methods using MAE metric. • The proposed model addresses data challenges such as limited data and extreme data points through expanded feature-set and regularization. • Three major features that mostly affect the drag coefficient were identified from a feature importance analysis.

Presa-Reyes, Maria↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗