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At least 325 records · Page 18

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Strawa, A. W.↗

Plant Phenology Evaluation of CRESCENDO Land Surface Models–Part 1: Start and End of the Growing Season

Plant phenology plays a fundamental role in land–atmosphere interactions, and its variability and variations are an indicator of climate and environmental changes. For this reason, current land surface models include phenology parameterizations and related biophysical and biogeochemical processes. In this work, the climatology of the beginning and end of the growing season, simulated by the land component of seven state-of-the-art European Earth system models participating in the CMIP6, is evaluated globally against satellite observations. The assessment is performed using the vegetation metric leaf area index and a recently developed approach, named four growing season types. On average, the land surface models show a 0.6-month delay in the growing season start, while they are about 0.5 months earlier in the growing season end. The difference with observation tends to be higher in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere. High agreement between land surface models and observations is exhibited in areas dominated by broadleaf deciduous trees, while high variability is noted in regions dominated by broadleaf deciduous shrubs. Generally, the timing of the growing season end is accurately simulated in about 25 % of global land grid points versus 16 % in the timing of growing season start. The refinement of phenology parameterization can lead to better representation of vegetation-related energy, water, and carbon cycles in land surface models, but plant phenology is also affected by plant physiology and soil hydrology processes. Consequently, phenology representation and, in general, vegetation modelling is a complex task, which still needs further improvement, evaluation, and multi-model comparison.

Phenology↗

Performance Comparison of HPF and MPI Based NAS Parallel Benchmarks

Compilers supporting High Performance Form (HPF) features first appeared in late 1994 and early 1995 from Applied Parallel Research (APR), Digital Equipment Corporation, and The Portland Group (PGI). IBM introduced an HPF compiler for the IBM RS/6000 SP2 in April of 1996. Over the past two years, these implementations have shown steady improvement in terms of both features and performance. The performance of various hardware/ programming model (HPF and MPI) combinations will be compared, based on latest NAS Parallel Benchmark results, thus providing a cross-machine and cross-model comparison. Specifically, HPF based NPB results will be compared with MPI based NPB results to provide perspective on performance currently obtainable using HPF versus MPI or versus hand-tuned implementations such as those supplied by the hardware vendors. In addition, we would also present NPB, (Version 1.0) performance results for the following systems: DEC Alpha Server 8400 5/440, Fujitsu CAPP Series (VX, VPP300, and VPP700), HP/Convex Exemplar SPP2000, IBM RS/6000 SP P2SC node (120 MHz), NEC SX-4/32, SGI/CRAY T3E, and SGI Origin2000. We would also present sustained performance per dollar for Class B LU, SP and BT benchmarks.

Saini, Subhash↗

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

climate models↗

Chemical evolution in spiral and irregular galaxies

A brief review of models of chemical evolution of the interstellar medium in our galaxy and other galaxies is presented. These models predict the time variation and radial dependence of chemical composition in the gas as function of the input parameters; initial mass function, stellar birth rate, chemical composition of mass lost by stars during their evolution (yields), and the existence of large scale mass flows, like infall from the halo, outflow to the intergalactic medium or radial flows within a galaxy. At present there is a considerable wealth of observational data on the composition of HII regions in spiral and irregular galaxies to constrain the models. Comparisons are made between theory and the observed physical conditions. In particular, studies of helium, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen abundances are reviewed. In many molecular clouds the information we have on the amount of H2 is derived from the observed CO column density, and a standard CO/H2 ratio derived for the solar neighborhood. Chemical evolution models and the observed variations in O/H and N/O values, point out the need to include these results in a CO/H2 relation that should be, at least, a function of the O/H ratio. This aspect is also discussed.

Torres-Peimbert, S.↗

A Wind-Tunnel Investigation to Determine the Effect of Various Head Designs on the Aerodynamic Characteristics in Pitch of the Army Ordnance Corps T205 3.5-Inch Heat Rocket

The aerodynamic characteristics in pitch of the Army Ordnance Corps T205 3.5-inch HEAT rocket with various head designs and one fin modification have been determined at velocities of 500, 700 and 900 feet per second in the Langley high-speed 7- by 10-foot tunnel. The results presented are those of the full-scale model. Comparison of results obtained at 500 feet per second shows, in general, that for changes on the forward portion of the head the missile configurations having the greatest stability - most rearward center-of-loads location - were those having the highest drag. However, very limited comparisons indicate that the shape of the rear position of the head may be an important factor in reducing the drag and increasing the restoring moments. Generally, large increases in drag were noted for the various head designs with an increase in Mach number from 0.62 to 0.82. Pitching-moment-curve slopes increased with Mach number on all models except those having reasonably well-faired forward sections. These models showed a decrease in stability with increases in Mach number.

Morrison, William D., Jr.↗

Using an MHD simulation to interpret the global context of a coronal mass ejection observed by two spacecraft

In late February 1999 the ACE spacecraft observed a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 1 AU, in the ecliptic plane. Thirteen days later, Ulysses observed a CME at 5 AU and 22"s. We present a detailed analysis of the plasma, magnetic field, and composition signatures of these two events. On the basis of this comparison alone, it is not clear that the two spacecraft observed the same solar event. However, using a generic MHD simulation of a fast CME initiated at the Sun by magnetic flux cancellation and propagated out into the solar wind, together with additional evidence, we argue that indeed the same CME was observed by both spacecraft. Although force-free models appear to fit the observed events well, our simulation results suggest that the ejecta underwent significant distortion during its passage through the solar wind, indicating that care should be taken when interpreting the results of force-he models. Comparison of composition measurements at the two spacecraft suggests that significant spatial inhomogeneities can exist within a single CME.

Riley, Pete↗

International Space Station Future Correlation Analysis Improvements

Ongoing modal analyses and model correlation are performed on different configurations of the International Space Station (ISS). These analyses utilize on-orbit dynamic measurements collected using four main ISS instrumentation systems: External Wireless Instrumentation System (EWIS), Internal Wireless Instrumentation System (IWIS), Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS), and Structural Dynamic Measurement System (SDMS). Remote Sensor Units (RSUs) are network relay stations that acquire flight data from sensors. Measured data is stored in the Remote Sensor Unit (RSU) until it receives a command to download data via RF to the Network Control Unit (NCU). Since each RSU has its own clock, it is necessary to synchronize measurements before analysis. Imprecise synchronization impacts analysis results. A study was performed to evaluate three different synchronization techniques: (i) measurements visually aligned to analytical time-response data using model comparison, (ii) Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD), and (iii) lag from cross-correlation to align measurements. This paper presents the results of this study.

time synchronization↗

Transport processes in the stratosphere: Model simulations and comparisons with satellite observations

A three dimensional atmospheric model was used to study transport processes and to simulate the distribution of chemically active species in the stratosphere. The present results are part of a long term simulation of the seasonally varying structure of stratospheric trace constituents. The occurrence of a midwinter stratospheric warming and the associated transport of O3 and HNO3 during the simulation are described. Comparison of the simulated distributions of O3 and HNO3 are made with data from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment. In addition, distributions of Ertel's potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces (IPV) are evaluated as a diagnostic for interpreting transport processes. Comparisons are made with IPV distributions inferred from LIMS temperature data.

Grose, W. L.↗

Laser transit anemometer and Pitot probe comparative measurements in a sharp cone boundary layer at Mach 4

Laser transit anemometer (LTA) measurements of a 7 degree sharp cone boundary layer were conducted in the Air Force/AEDC Supersonic Tunnel A Mach 4 flow field. These measurements are compared with Pitot probe measurements and tricone theory provided by AEDC staff. Measurements were made both in laminar and turbulent boundary layers of the model. Comparison of LTA measurements with theory showed agreement to better than 1 percent for the laminar boundary layer cases. This level of agreement was obtained after small position corrections, 0.01 to 0.6 mm, were applied to the experimental data sets. Pitot probe data when compared with theory also showed small positioning errors. The Pitot data value was also limited due to probe interference with the flow near the model. The LTA turbulent boundary layer data indicated a power law dependence of 6.3 to 6.9. The LTA data was analyzed in the time (Tau) domain in which it was obtained and in the velocity domain. No significant differences were noted between Tau and velocity domain results except in one turbulent boundary layer case.

Hunter, W. W., Jr.↗

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

climate models↗

Great (Flame) Balls of Fire! Structure of Flame Balls at Low Lewis-number-2 (SOFBALL-2)

Everyone knows that an automobile engine wastes fuel and energy when it runs with a fuel-rich mixture. 'Lean' burning, mixing in more air and less fuel, is better for the environment. But lean mixtures also lead to engine misfiring and rough operation. No one knows the ultimate limits for lean operation, for 'weak' combustion that is friendly to the environment while still moving us around. This is where the accidental verification of a decades-old prediction may have strong implications for designing and running low-emissions engines in the 21st century. In 1944, Soviet physicist Yakov Zeldovich predicted that stationary, spherical flames are possible under limited conditions in lean fuel-air mixtures. Dr. Paul Ronney of the University of Southern California accidentally discovered such 'flame balls' in experiments with lean hydrogen-air mixtures in 1984 during drop-tower experiments that provided just 2.2 seconds of near weightlessness. Experiments aboard NASA's low-g aircraft confirmed the results, but a thorough investigation was hampered by the aircraft's bumpy ride. And stable flame balls can only exist in microgravity. The potential for investigating combustion at the limits of flammability, and the implications for spacecraft fire safety, led to the Structure of Flame Balls at Low Lewis-number (SOFBALL) experiment flown twice aboard the Space Shuttle on the Microgravity Sciences Laboratory-1 (MSL-1) in 1997. Success there led to the planned reflight on STS-107. Flame balls are the weakest fires yet produced in space or on Earth. Typically each flame ball produced only 1 watt of thermal power. By comparison, a birthday candle produces 50 watts. The Lewis-number measures the rate of diffusion of fuel into the flame ball relative to the rate of diffusion of heat away from the flame ball. Lewis-number mixtures conduct heat poorly. Hydrogen and methane are the only fuels that provide low enough Lewis-numbers to produce stable flame balls, and even then only for very weak, barely flammable mixtures. Nevertheless, under these conditions flame balls give scientists the opportunity to test models in one of the simplest combustion experiments possible. SOFBALL-2 science objectives include: Improving our understanding of the flame ball phenomenon; Determining the conditions under which flame balls exist; Testing predictions of flame ball lifetimes; Acquiring more precise data for critical model comparison.

Ronney, Paul↗

Hemispheric Differences in Tropical Lower Stratospheric Transport and Tracers Annual Cycle

Transport of long-lived tracers (such as O, CO, and N O) in the lower stratosphere largely determines the composition of the entire stratosphere. Stratospheric transport includes the mean residual circulation (with air rising in the tropics and sinking in the polar and middle latitudes), plus two-way isentropic (quasi-horizontal) mixing by eddies. However, the relative importance of two transport components remains uncertain. Previous studies quantified the relative role of these processes based on tropics-wide average characteristics under common assumption of well-mixed tropics. However, multiple instruments provide us with evidence that show significant differences in the seasonal cycle of ozone between the Northern (0-20N) and Southern (0-20S) tropical (NT and ST respectively) lower stratosphere. In this study we investigate these differences in tracer seasonality and quantify transport processes affecting tracers annual cycle amplitude using simulations from Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and compare them to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite. We detect the observed contrast between the ST and NT in GEOSCCM and WACCM: annual cycle in ozone and other chemical tracers is larger in the NT than in the ST but opposite is true for the annual cycle in vertical advection. Ozone budgets in the models, analyzed based on the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) framework, demonstrate a major role of quasi-horizontal mixing vertical advection in determining the NTST ozone distribution and behavior. Analysis of zonal variations in the NT and ST ozone annual cycles further suggests important role of North American and Asian Summer Monsoons (associated with strong isentropic mixing) on the lower stratospheric ozone in the NT. Furthermore, multi model comparison shows that most CCMs reproduce the observed characteristic of ozone annual cycle quite well. Thus, latitudinal variations within the tropics have to be considered in order to understand the balance between upwelling and quasi- horizontal mixing in the tropical lower stratosphere and the paradigm of well mixed tropics has to be reconsidered.

Chemistry-Climate Models↗

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2↗

Improved Mars Upper Atmosphere Climatology

The detailed characterization of the Mars upper atmosphere is important for future Mars aerobraking activities. Solar cycle, seasonal, and dust trends (climate) as well as planetary wave activity (weather) are crucial to quantify in order to improve our ability to reasonably depict the state of the Mars upper atmosphere over time. To date, our best information is found in the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Accelerometer (ACC) database collected during Phase 1 (Ls = 184 - 300; F10.7 = 70 - 90) and Phase 2 (Ls = 30 - 90; F10.7 = 90 - 150) of aerobraking. This database (100 - 170 km) consists of thermospheric densities, temperatures, and scale heights, providing our best constraints for exercising the coupled Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). The Planetary Data System (PDS) contains level 0 and 2 MGS Accelerometer data, corresponding to atmospheric densities along the orbit track. Level 3 products (densities, temperatures, and scale heights at constant altitudes) are also available in the PDS. These datasets provide the primary model constraints for the new MGCM-MTGCM simulations summarized in this report. Our strategy for improving the characterization of the Mars upper atmospheres using these models has been three-fold : (a) to conduct data-model comparisons using the latest MGS data covering limited climatic and weather conditions at Mars, (b) to upgrade the 15-micron cooling and near-IR heating rates in the MGCM and MTGCM codes for ad- dressing climatic variations (solar cycle and seasonal) important in linking the lower and upper atmospheres (including migrating tides), and (c) to exercise the detailed coupled MGCM and MTGCM codes to capture and diagnose the planetary wave (migrating plus non-migrating tidal) features throughout the Mars year. Products from this new suite of MGCM-MTGCM coupled simulations are being used to improve our predictions of the structure of the Mars upper atmosphere for the upcoming MRO aerobraking exercises in 2006. A Michigan website, containing MTGCM output fields from previous climate simulations, is being expanded to include new MGCM-MTGCM simulations addressing planetary wave influences upon thermospheric aerobraking fields (densities and temperatures). In addition, similar MTGCM output fields have been supplied to the MSFC MARSGRAM - 200X empirical model, which will be used in mission operations for conducting aerobraking maneuvers.

Bougher, S. W.↗

Gravity wave spectra observed by Doppler radar: Comparison of a model with mesospheric observations

It was proposed that mesoscale fluctuations of wind and temperature in the free atmosphere are due to gravity waves. Critical tests of this hypothesis must involve the comparison of models based on the theory of buoyancy waves with suitable measurements. The MST (mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere) radar technique is particularly attractive for this purpose, because it can measure several independent power spectra simultaneously. Observed spectra are derived from mesospheric data taken by the Poker Flat MST radar during June 1983. The spectra were compared with the model spectra for three days when suitable data were available. It was concluded that the mesoscale fluctuations were dominated by gravity waves, and the contribution of two-dimensional turbulence was small.

Vanzandt, T. E.↗

Comparison of the Nimbus-4 BUV ozone data with the Ames two-dimensional model

A comparison is made of the first two years of Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) ozone measurements with the predictions of the Ames two dimensional model. The ozone observations used consist of the mixing ratio on the 1, 2, 5, and 10 mb pressure surfaces. The data are zone and time averaged to obtain seasonal means for 1970 and 1971 and are found to show strong and repeatable meridional and seasonal dependencies. The model used for comparison with the observations extends from 80 N to 80 S latitude and from altitudes of 0 to 60 km with 5 deg horizontal grid spacing and 2.5 km vertical grid spacing. Chemical reaction and photolysis rates are diurnally averaged and the photodissociation rates are corrected for the effects of scattering. The large altitude, latitude, and seasonal changes in the ozone data agree with the model predictions. Model predictions of the sensitivity of the comparisons to changes in the assumed mixing ratios of water vapor, odd nitrogen, and odd chlorine, as well as to changes in the ambient temperature and transport parameters are also shown.

Borucki, W. J.↗

Effective Albedo of Vegetated Terrain at L-Band

This paper derives an explicit expression for an effective albedo of vegetated terrain from the zero- and multiple- order radiative transfer (RT) model comparison. The formulation establishes a direct physical link between the effective vegetation parameterization and the theoretical description of absorption and scattering within the canopy. The paper will present an evaluation of the derived albedo for corn canopies with data taken during an experiment at Alabama A&M Winfield A. Thomas Agricultural Research Station near Huntsville, Alabama in June, 1998. The test site consisted of two 50-m x 60-m plots - one with a bare surface and the other with grass cover - and four 30-m x 50-m plots of corn at different planting densities. One corn field was planted at a full density of 9.5 plants/sq m while the others were planted at 1/3, 1/2 and 2/3 of the full density. The fields were observed with a truck-mounted L-band radiometer at incident angle of 15 degree for the period of two weeks. Soil moisture (SM) changed daily due to irrigation and natural rainfall. Variations in gravimetric SM from 18 % to 34 % were seen during this period. Ground truth data, including careful characterization of the corn size and orientation statistics, and its dielectric, was also collected and used to simulate the effective albedo for the vegetation. The single-scattering albedo is defined as the fractional power scattered from individual vegetation constituents with respect to canopy extinction. It represents single-scattering properties of vegetation elements only, and is independent of ground properties. The values of the albedo get higher when there is dense vegetation (i.e. forest, mature corn, etc.) with scatterers, such as branches and trunks (or stalks in the case of corn), which are large with respect to the wavelength. This large albedo leads to a reduction in brightness temperature in the zero-order RT solution (known as tau-omega model). Higher-order multiple-scattering RT solutions are required for proper representation of scattering within vegetation. In this paper, an expression for an effective albedo for the whole canopy including the ground is derived for use in the zero-order RT model-based SM retrieval. This effective albedo takes into account of all the processes taking place within the canopy, including multiple-scattering. This new formulation will be presented and its importance for microwave SM retrieval will be evaluated for corn canopies in conjunction with the detailed ground truth data obtained during the experiment at Alabama in 1998. Emphasis will be placed on examining how the radiometer response to SM is modified by the corn canopy scattering under different field conditions. A semi-empirical parameterization of the effective albedo will be investigated through analysis of SM and vegetation water content effects on the effective albedo.

Kurum, Mehmet↗