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At least 325 records · Page 18

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

In-space construction and dynamics of large space structures

The types of equipment and structures that will be required to construct very large spacecraft in space are discussed. One of the basic issues that must be resolved is the appropriate mix of humans and machines in the construction process. While the use of robots offers the potential for reducing the number of extra-vehicular activity (EVA) hours required for particular construction operations, the availability of humans greatly increases the reliability of complex construction tasks. A hybrid system is described which makes the best use of man and machine to provide a highly reliable and versatile construction approach. Such a system will provide an efficient method for constructing large spacecraft until fully automated, robotic devices can be perfected. Details are given on an extensive ground test program which was designed to evaluate and demonstrate large spacecraft construction. A discussion is presented on the use of the Space Station Freedom, or an appropriate derivative, as a construction facility. Finally, a construction scenario and assembly timelines are presented for constructing a 20-meter-diameter high precision reflector.

Mikulas, Martin M., Jr.↗

Potential of Materials to Impact Megawatt-Scale Electric Machines

High specific power density, megawatt-scale electric machines (motors and generators) are needed to enable megawatt-scale electric aircraft propulsion systems for single isle aircraft. Thermally insulating electrical insulation materials in the stator windings limits the ability to thermally manage the heat produced in these machines. Polymer-ceramic composites along with novel processing techniques offer viable options to improve the thermal conductivity of the electrical insulation system. This paper outlines current National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Glenn Research Center efforts of developing several polymer-ceramic systems and processing techniques as they relate to electric machine insulation (including potting). There is also analysis of how these factors relate to machine performance.

electric macnhine↗

Three-dimensional object tracking system and method employing plural sensors and plural processors for performing parallel processing

A multiple sensor/multiple processor 3-D tracking system includes multiple sensor (camera) and DSP combinations and a controller connected so as to create a parallel computer from the multiple DSPs. The camera/DSP combinations and the controller are connected together to form a ring. For 3-D position measurement and tracking applications, each camera/DSP combination is programmed with an identical program to function as a node in a true parallel computer, and the transformation equations are solved in a distributed fashion using the entire parallel machine. The distributed processor processes the camera x and y point measurements in a distributed and parallel fashion to yield a solution to the coordinate transformation equations much more quickly than is possible with multiple camera/DSP combinations and a single processor.

Welch, Sharon S.↗

Vision science and technology for supervised intelligent space robots

The focus of recent work in robotic vision for application in intelligent space robots such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Retriever is in visual function, that is, how information about the space world is derived and then conveyed to cognition. The goal of this work in visual function is first to understand how the relevant structure of the surrounding world is evidenced by regularities among the pixels of images, then to understand how these regularities are mapped on the premises that form the primitive elements of cognition, and then to apply these understandings with the elements of visual processing (algorithms) and visual mechanism (machine organization) to intelligent space robot simulations and test beds. Since visual perception is the process of recognizing regularities in images that are known on the basis of a model of the world to be reliable related to causal structure in the environment (because perception attaches meaning to the link between a conception of the environment and the objective environment), the work involves understanding generic, generally applicable models of world structure (not merely objects) and how that structure evidences itself in images.

Erickson, Jon D.↗

Technology Assessment of Laser-Assisted Materials Processing in Space

Lasers are useful for performing operations such as joining, machining, built-up freeform fabrication, shock processing, and surface treatments. These attributes are attractive for the supportability of longer-term missions in space due to the multi-functionality of a single tool and the variety of materials that can be processed. However, current laser technology also has drawbacks for space-based applications, specifically size, power efficiency, lack of robustness, and problems processing highly reflective materials. A review of recent laser developments will be used to show how these issues may be reduced and indicate where further improvement is necessary to realize a laser-based materials processing capability in space. The broad utility of laser beams in synthesizing various classes of engineering materials will be illustrated using state-of-the art processing maps for select lightweight alloys typically found on spacecraft. With the advent of recent breakthroughs in diode-pumped solid-state lasers and fiber optic technologies, the potential to perform multiple processing techniques is increasing significantly. Lasers with suitable wavelengths and beam properties have tremendous potential for supporting future space missions to the moon, Mars and beyond.

Nagarathnam, Karthik↗

Technology Assessment of Laser-Assisted Materials Processing in Space

Lasers are useful for performing operations such as joining, machining, built-up freeform fabrication, shock processing, and surface treatments. These attributes are attractive for the supportability of longer-term missions in space due to the multi-functionality of a single tool and the variety of materials that can be processed. However, current laser technology also has drawbacks for space-based applications, specifically size, power efficiency, lack of robustness, and problems processing highly reflective materials. A review of recent laser developments will be used to show how these issues may be reduced and indicate where further improvement is necessary to realize a laser-based materials processing capability in space. The broad utility of laser beams in synthesizing various classes of engineering materials will be illustrated using state-of-the art processing maps for select lightweight alloys typically found on spacecraft. With the advent of recent breakthroughs in diode-pumped solid-state lasers and fiber optic technologies, the potential to perform multiple processing techniques is increasing significantly. Lasers with suitable wavelengths and beam properties have tremendous potential for supporting future space missions to the moon, Mars and beyond.

Nagarathnam, Karthik↗

Synthetic Hyperspectral Data for Global Water Quality Algorithm Development

Eutrophication and increasing prevalence of potentially toxic algal blooms (cyanoHABs) among global inland water bodies have become a major ecological concern and require direct attention. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local aquatic processes, to spatially resolved global products. Planned aquatic biogeochemistry remote sensing data products from hyperspectral imagers such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) mission and relevant aquatic sensor sensitivity precursor airborne imaging spectrometer data provide unprecedented radiometric resolution and sensor sensitivity for characterizing complex aquatic ecosystems. However, scarcity of high-quality freshwater in-situ optical data hinders our capability to develop and validate robust retrieval algorithms. A state-of-the-art synthetic dataset of paired top-of-atmosphere, bottom-of-atmosphere, and optical and biogeophysical data was developed through radiative transfer modeling to simulate natural freshwater ecosystems. A synthetic or precursor dataset for SBG is being used to train robust machine learning models to derive water quality products pertinent to SBG mission objectives. The dataset is also used to show the potential of performing vigorous aquatic sensitivity studies and explored pathways for how best to optimize hyperspectral data for machine learning development. A processing pipeline and resultant global synthetic/precursor dataset for inland waters is presented to establish the innovation for water quality studies of inland waters globally. Optical Society of America Imaging and Applied Optics Congress, Hyperspectral Imaging and Sounding of the Environment (OSA HISE) Meeting, 19-23 July 2021, Virtual Meeting, https://www.osa.org/enus/meetings/osa_meetings/optical_sensors_and_sensing_congress/program/hyperspectral_imaging_and_sounding_of_the_environm/

Synthetic↗

Correctness criteria for process migration

Two correctness criteria, the state consistency criterion and the property consistency criterion for process migration are discussed. The state machine approach is used to model the interactions between a user process and its environment. These criteria are defined in terms of the model. The idea of environment view was introduced to distinguish what a user process observes about its environment from what its environment state really is and argue that a consistent view of the environment must be maintained for every migrating process.

Lu, Chin↗

Transforming Science Prioritization Processes Using Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have potential to augment significantly the current labor-intensive processes of science prioritization, specifically by the National Academies’ Decadal Survey on behalf of NASA and NSF. Here we summarize what we believe to be the first exploratory demonstration-of-concept results from an application of AI/ML to Survey science prioritization. Specifically, we applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) to reveal trends in published astrophysics research that may indicate science priorities and which could be applied to strategic planning. For the purpose of the work that we summarize here, AI/ML is able to analyze – that is, to “understand,” in a manner of speaking – a vast amount of text to reveal complex relationships among research topics, including the growth or decline of science community activities in those topics over time. We trained ourselves and AI/ML algorithms by using ~400,000 abstracts in the period 1998 to 2010 to “forecast” the Academies’ Astro2010 recommendations and compare with the solicited white papers. Comparing our results with actual Astro2010 recommendations allowed us to identify candidate metrics that better predicted the actual results of the Survey. We found, for example, that Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of papers published in a topic area is a good proxy measure for importance of this topic area of research. With this training complete, we identified candidate astrophysics astrophysics science priorities for the 2021+ period using the research during 2007 - 2019 . We conclude that appropriate application of AI can potentially significantly reduce the current workload of the Decadal Survey processes and reveal otherwise unrecognized characteristics in the body of astronomical research. We emphasize throughout the exploratory nature of our work, encouraging colleagues to pursue promising results further. Our most critical governing assumption was that increased (or decreased) research activity can be used to identify scientific or technology topic areas worthy of increased (or decreased) future emphasis. We discuss advantages, limitations, and recognize the “black box” nature of our technique. We note ethics issues associated, for example, with using AI/ML to reveal “hidden” meanings and biases in published work. Furthermore, inevitable improvements in AI may soon enable widespread and welcome identification of and advocacy for science and technology priorities by disparate and diverse groups and organizations. Consequently, we continue to urge a near-term, in-depth evaluation of appropriate applications of AI, including implications and consequences, as well as support for multiple follow-on assessments, of which ours is only a beginning.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Wire electric-discharge machining and other fabrication techniques

Wire electric discharge machining and extrude honing were used to fabricate a two dimensional wing for cryogenic wind tunnel testing. Electric-discharge cutting is done with a moving wire electrode. The cut track is controlled by means of a punched-tape program and the cutting feed is regulated according to the progress of the work. Electric-discharge machining involves no contact with the work piece, and no mechanical force is exerted. Extrude hone is a process for honing finish-machined surfaces by the extrusion of an abrasive material (silly putty), which is forced through a restrictive fixture. The fabrication steps are described and production times are given.

Morgan, W. H.↗

Low cost fabrication development for oxide dispersion strengthened alloy vanes

Viable processes were developed for secondary working of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys to near-net shapes (NNS) for aircraft turbine vanes. These processes were shown capable of producing required microstructure and properties for vane applications. Material cost savings of 40 to 50% are projected for the NNS process over the current procedures which involve machining from rectangular bar. Additional machining cost savings are projected. Of three secondary working processes evaluated, directional forging and plate bending were determined to be viable NNS processes for ODS vanes. Directional forging was deemed most applicable to high pressure turbine (HPT) vanes with their large thickness variations while plate bending was determined to be most cost effective for low pressure turbine (LPT) vanes because of their limited thickness variations. Since the F101 LPT vane was selected for study in this program, development of plate bending was carried through to establishment of a preliminary process. Preparation of ODS alloy plate for bending was found to be a straight forward process using currently available bar stock, providing that the capability for reheating between roll passes is available. Advanced ODS-NiCrAl and ODS-FeCrAl alloys were utilized on this program. Workability of all alloys was adequate for directional forging and plate bending, but only the ODS-FeCrAl had adequate workability for shaped preform extrustion.

Perkins, R. J.↗

Compiler writing system detail design specification. Volume 2: Component specification

The logic modules and data structures composing the Meta-translator module are desribed. This module is responsible for the actual generation of the executable language compiler as a function of the input Meta-language. Machine definitions are also processed and are placed as encoded data on the compiler library data file. The transformation of intermediate language in target language object text is described.

Arthur, W. J.↗

Design and implementation of a medium speed communications interface and protocol for a low cost, refreshed display computer

The design and implementation of hardware and software systems involved in using a 40,000 bit/second communication line as the connecting link between an IMLAC PDS 1-D display computer and a Univac 1108 computer system were described. The IMLAC consists of two independent processors sharing a common memory. The display processor generates the deflection and beam control currents as it interprets a program contained in the memory; the minicomputer has a general instruction set and is responsible for starting and stopping the display processor and for communicating with the outside world through the keyboard, teletype, light pen, and communication line. The processing time associated with each data byte was minimized by designing the input and output processes as finite state machines which automatically sequence from each state to the next. Several tests of the communication link and the IMLAC software were made using a special low capacity computer grade cable between the IMLAC and the Univac.

Phyne, J. R.↗

Extensive cost reduction studies: Composite empennage component - L-1011 commercial airliner

A series of cover skin laminate studies was conducted. The baseline laminate design is composed of 34 plies with doublers interwoven. This is costly to produce, since the broad goods tape dispersing machine must stop frequently while the doubler plies are inserted by hand during the layup sequence. The use of graphite cloth was investigated for the cover skin. Attention is also given to low resin content prepreg, the selection of optimum tape width, an increase in gap/overlap tolerances, the use of large reusable vacuum bags with mechanical edge seals for production, an integrated laminating center machine, automated hat stiffener processing, a secondary bond assembly process, and a single-stage cure process.

Van Hamersveld, J.↗

Low-cost directionally-solidified turbine blades, volume 2

An endothermically heated technology was used to manufacture low cost, directionally solidified, uncooled nickel-alloy blades for the TFE731-3 turbofan engine. The MAR-M 247 and MER-M 100+Hf blades were finish processed through heat treatment, machining, and coating operations prior to 150 hour engine tests consisting of the following sequences: (1) 50 hours of simulated cruise cycling (high fatigue evaluation); (2) 50 hours at the maximum continuous power rating (stress rupture endurance (low cycle fatigue). None of the blades visually showed any detrimental effects from the test. This was verified by post test metallurgical evaluation. The specific fuel consumption was reduced by 2.4% with the uncooled blades.

Dennis, R. E.↗

Hard permanent magnet development trends and their application to A.C. machines

The physical and magnetic properties of Mn-Al-C, Fe-Cr-Co, and RE-TM (rare earth-transition metal intermetallics) in polymer and soft metal bonded or sintered form are considered for ac circuit machine usage. The manufacturing processes for the magnetic materials are reviewed, and the mechanical and electrical properties of the magnetic materials are compared, with consideration given to the reference Alnico magnet. The Mn-Al-C magnets have the same magnetic properties and costs as Alnico units, operate well at low temperatures, but have poor high temperature performance. Fe-Cr-Co magnets also have comparable cost to Alnico magnets, and operate at high or low temperature, but are brittle, expensive, and contain Co. RE-Co magnets possess a high energy density, operate well in a wide temperature range, and are expensive. Recommendation for exploring the rare-earth alternatives are offered.

Mildrum, H. F.↗