Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “likelihood”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Rind, D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Determination of stability and control derivatives from the NASA F/A-18 HARV from flight data using the maximum likelihood method

This report is a compilation of PID (Proportional Integral Derivative) results for both longitudinal and lateral directional analysis that was completed during Fall 1994. It had earlier established that the maneuvers available for PID containing independent control surface inputs from OBES were not well suited for extracting the cross-coupling static (i.e., C(sub N beta)) or dynamic (i.e., C(sub Npf)) derivatives. This was due to the fact that these maneuvers were designed with the goal of minimizing any lateral directional motion during longitudinal maneuvers and vice-versa. This allows for greater simplification in the aerodynamic model as far as coupling between longitudinal and lateral directions is concerned. As a result, efforts were made to reanalyze this data and extract static and dynamic derivatives for the F/A-18 HARV (High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle) without the inclusion of the cross-coupling terms such that more accurate estimates of classical model terms could be acquired. Four longitudinal flights containing static PID maneuvers were examined. The classical state equations already available in pEst for alphadot, qdot and thetadot were used. Three lateral directional flights of PID static maneuvers were also examined. The classical state equations already available in pEst for betadot, p dot, rdot and phi dot were used. Enclosed with this document are the full set of longitudinal and lateral directional parameter estimate plots showing coefficient estimates along with Cramer-Rao bounds. In addition, a representative time history match for each type of meneuver tested at each angle of attack is also enclosed.

Napolitano, Marcello R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS TE-18 Landsat TM Maximum Likelihood Classification Image of the SSA

The BOREAS TE-18 team focused its efforts on using remotely sensed data to characterize the successional and disturbance dynamics of the boreal forest for use in carbon modeling. The objective of this classification is to provide the BOREAS investigators with a data product that characterizes the land cover of the SSA. A Landsat-5 TM image from 02-Sep- 1994 was used to derive the classification. A technique was implemented that uses reflectances of various land cover types along with a geometric optical canopy model to produce spectral trajectories. These trajectories are used as training data to classify the image into the different land cover classes. These data are provided in a binary image file format. The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884), or from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Center (DAAC).

Hall, Forrest G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Maxium-Likelihood Template Matching

In image matching applications such as tracking and stereo matching, it is common to use the sum-of-squared-differences (SSD) measure to determine the best match for an image template.

maximum-likeihood estimation template matching obj↗
NASA NTRS2004

Maximum likelihood decoding analysis of Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate Codes

Repeat-Accumulate (RA) codes are the simplest turbo-like codes that achieve good performance. However, they cannot compete with Turbo codes or low-density parity check codes (LDPC) as far as performance is concerned. The Accumulate Repeat Accumulate (ARA) codes, as a subclass of LDPC codes, are obtained by adding a pre-coder in front of RA codes with puncturing where an accumulator is chosen as a precoder. These codes not only are very simple, but also achieve excellent performance with iterative decoding. In this paper, the performance of these codes with (ML) decoding are analyzed and compared to random codes by very tight bounds. The weight distribution of some simple ARA codes is obtained, and through existing tightest bounds we have shown the ML SNR threshold of ARA codes approaches very closely to the performance of random codes. We have shown that the use of precoder improves the SNR threshold but interleaving gain remains unchanged with respect to RA code with puncturing.

low density parity codes (LDPC)↗
NASA NTRS2008

Five-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Likelihoods and Parameters from the WMAP Data

The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), launched in 2001, has mapped out the Cosmic Microwave Background with unprecedented accuracy over the whole sky. Its observations have led to the establishment of a simple concordance cosmological model for the contents and evolution of the universe, consistent with virtually all other astronomical measurements. The WMAP first-year and three-year data have allowed us to place strong constraints on the parameters describing the ACDM model. a flat universe filled with baryons, cold dark matter, neutrinos. and a cosmological constant. with initial fluctuations described by nearly scale-invariant power law fluctuations, as well as placing limits on extensions to this simple model (Spergel et al. 2003. 2007). With all-sky measurements of the polarization anisotropy (Kogut et al. 2003; Page et al. 2007), two orders of magnitude smaller than the intensity fluctuations. WMAP has not only given us an additional picture of the universe as it transitioned from ionized to neutral at redshift z approx.1100. but also an observation of the later reionization of the universe by the first stars. In this paper we present cosmological constraints from WMAP alone. for both the ACDM model and a set of possible extensions. We also consider tlle consistency of WMAP constraints with other recent astronomical observations. This is one of seven five-year WMAP papers. Hinshaw et al. (2008) describe the data processing and basic results. Hill et al. (2008) present new beam models arid window functions, Gold et al. (2008) describe the emission from Galactic foregrounds, and Wright et al. (2008) the emission from extra-Galactic point sources. The angular power spectra are described in Nolta et al. (2008), and Komatsu et al. (2008) present and interpret cosmological constraints based on combining WMAP with other data. WMAP observations are used to produce full-sky maps of the CMB in five frequency bands centered at 23, 33, 41, 61, and 94 GHz (Hinshaw et al. 2008). With five years of data, we are now able to place better limits on the ACDM model. as well as to move beyond it to test the composition of the universe. details of reionization. sub-dominant components, characteristics of inflation, and primordial fluctuations. We have more than doubled the amount of polarized data used for cosmological analysis. allowing a better measure of the large-scale E-mode signal (Nolta et al. 2008). To this end we describe an alternative way to remove Galactic foregrounds from low resolution polarization maps in which Galactic emission is marginalized over, providing a cross-check of our results. With longer integration we also better probe the second and third acoustic peaks in the temperature angular power spectrum, and have many more year-to-year difference maps available for cross-checking systematic effects (Hinshaw et al. 2008).

Dunkey, J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate Likelihood of Direct Lightning Strikes

A software tool has been designed to quantify the lightning exposure at launch sites of the stack at the pads under different configurations. In order to predict lightning strikes to generic structures, this model uses leaders whose origins (in the x-y plane) are obtained from a 2D random, normal distribution.

Mata, Carlos↗
NASA NTRS2009

Decadal Variation of the Number of El Nino Onsets and El Nino-Related Months and Estimating the Likelihood of El Nino Onset in a Warming World

Examination of the decadal variation of the number of El Nino onsets and El Nino-related months for the interval 1950-2008 clearly shows that the variation is better explained as one expressing normal fluctuation and not one related to global warming. Comparison of the recurrence periods for El Nino onsets against event durations for moderate/strong El Nino events results in a statistically important relationship that allows for the possible prediction of the onset for the next anticipated El Nino event. Because the last known El Nino was a moderate event of short duration (6 months), having onset in August 2006, unless it is a statistical outlier, one expects the next onset of El Nino probably in the latter half of 2009, with peak following in November 2009-January 2010. If true, then initial early extended forecasts of frequencies of tropical cyclones for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season probably should be revised slightly downward from near average-to-above average numbers to near average-to-below average numbers of tropical cyclones in 2009, especially as compared to averages since 1995, the beginning of the current high-activity interval for tropical cyclone activity.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Implementation of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Space Launch System Vehicle Design

As NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) approaches first launch, the design has matured to a point where the manufacturing uncertainty has decreased now that many of the components of the launch vehicle have been manufactured and the flight engines have been successfully tested. Prior to this point, a method was required to qualify and capture the impact of the differences between simulation and reality, as well as any uncertainties in the SLS design. Two primary categories of uncertainty arise during the launch vehicle design process. The first represents flight-day uncertainties including dispersions due to winds and temperatures. These are typically examined by performing a Monte Carlo on 6 Degree of Freedom (6-DOF) simulations. The second category of uncertainties represents any manufacturing variations that are present at the individual component level of the launch vehicle design. These variations are constructed using statistical masses and tend to become better understood and refined as the design cycle matures, finally resulting in the launch vehicle as constructed and tested.

Stein, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Increased Likelihood of Appreciable Afternoon Rainfall Over Wetter or Drier Soils Dependent Upon atmospheric Dynamic Influence

The relationship between morning soil moisture and afternoon rainfall persists as an important yet unresolved challenge in land‐atmosphere interaction study, complicated in part by atmospheric influence. Here, we address this relationship by utilizing NASA's satellite soil moisture and precipitation data for the warm season (June–September) of 2015–2019 over Northern Hemisphere land (0–60°N). Raining days are partitioned into low, medium, and high regimes of atmospheric water vapor convergence. Under the low convergence regime, afternoon rainfall is more likely to occur over wetter soils or higher relative humidity; for days with high moisture convergence, occurrence favors drier soils or lower relative humidity. For each regime, afternoon rainfall occurrence favors warmer morning soil or air temperature. These conclusions are not affected by the threshold magnitude utilized to identify afternoon rainfall events by accumulation, but the threshold value does affect the soil moisture (or relative humidity)‐precipitation relationship when convergence regimes are not considered.

J. Welty↗
NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2020

Africa Food Security & Agriculture: Predicting the Likelihood of Human-elephant Conflict and Assessing Elephant Habitat Conditions During Extreme Drought and Crop Deficit in the Kavango-Zambezi Area

Human-wildlife conflict is increasingly more common due to human population growth, habitat fragmentation, and changing climatic conditions. This conflict is particularly evident in the Kavango-Zambezi area, where over three million people share the landscape with an abundant megafauna population. As the changing climate continues to exacerbate drought severity and subsequent food availability, conflict between humans and wildlife has become more prevalent. In the Kavango-Zambezi area, conflict between elephants and humans has resulted in crop loss, property damage, and threats to public safety. In order to manage current and future conflict, The Ecoexist Project and Connected Conservation have been working to empower farmers and conserve the natural habitat. This DEVELOP project employed Earth observations to conduct a time series analysis of vegetation health change, elephant movement, and climate conditions, from 2017 to 2020. Data were aggregated into the wet (November through April) and dry (May through October) seasons. The resulting analysis demonstrated the potential to use Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Global Precipitation Measurement’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), and TerraClimate data to identify potential areas of conflict under increased seasonal variability. An improved understanding of conflict drivers will help support sustainable wildlife conservation and food security in the future.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗