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Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) model assists in design of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. LCP simulation of performance, cost and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. Provides user with substantial flexibility in specifying technical and economic environment of PV application.
FORTRAN program RANDOM2 is presented in the form of a user's manual. RANDOM2 is based on fracture mechanics using a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model. It predicts the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given crack size. Details of the theoretical background, input data instructions, and a sample problem illustrating the use of the program are included.
The FORTRAN program RANDOM2 is documented. RANDOM2 is based on fracture mechanics using a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model. It predicts the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given crack size. Included in this user manual are details regarding the theoretical background of RANDOM2, input data, instructions and a sample problem illustrating the use of RANDOM2. Appendix A gives information on the physical quantities, their symbols, FORTRAN names, and both SI and U.S. Customary units. Appendix B includes photocopies of the actual computer printout corresponding to the sample problem. Appendices C and D detail the IMSL, Ver. 10(1), subroutines and functions called by RANDOM2 and a SAS/GRAPH(2) program that can be used to plot both the probability density function (p.d.f.) and the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.).
The FORTRAN programs RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 are documented. They are based on fatigue strength reduction, using a probabilistic constitutive model. They predict the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given fatigue strength. Included in this user manual are details regarding the theoretical backgrounds of RANDOM3 and RANDOM4. Appendix A gives information on the physical quantities, their symbols, FORTRAN names, and both SI and U.S. Customary units. Appendix B and C include photocopies of the actual computer printout corresponding to the sample problems. Appendices D and E detail the IMSL, Version 10(1), subroutines and functions called by RANDOM3 and RANDOM4 and SAS/GRAPH(2) programs that can be used to plot both the probability density functions (p.d.f.) and the cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.).
The ROCSAT-3/COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) mission consists of a constellation of 6 low-earth orbiting satellites. In conducting the atmospheric limb sounding using the GPS radio occultation technique (which is the main objective of the mission), the satellite orbits are precisely determined at any given moment by GPS "high-low" satellite-to-satellite tracking. These precise orbit determination (POD) data contain useful information about the Earth's gravitational field and its time variations, for both geophysical and climate-related research. Our previous simulations showed that the use of these orbit data can yield an order of magnitude improvement over the state-of-the-art global gravity model EGM96 out to degree and order 20 (spatial resolution of 1000 km), depending on the mission design and orbit adjustment scenario. In this paper, the temporal variation signals of low-degree harmonics are the subject matter. These signals can be obtained from POD at the 800 km operational altitude (where the non-gravitational forces is weaker and can be better modeled and removed) during the lifetime of the mission. The time-varying gravity is becoming an important data source for studying climate-related global changes, especially in anticipating the use of the time-variable gravity data from the GRACE mission which was recently launched into orbit. Although not as precise as what GRACE promises to achieve, with much denser spatial and temporal coverages provided by 6 satellites and hence greatly reduced aliasing errors COSMIC represents independent and complementary observations for the new time-variable gravity research. We will present simulation results based on the present mission scenario.
This paper reports performance and lifetime predictions based on numerical modeling and issues associated with fabrication of carbon-carbon composite grids for high power, high ISP grids.
The NASA Constellation Program (CxP) is developing a two-element Earth-to-Orbit launch system to enable human exploration of the Moon. The first element, Ares I, is a human-rated system that consists of a first stage based on the Space Shuttle Program's solid rocket booster (SRB) and an upper stage that consists of a four-crew Orion capsule, a service module, and a Launch Escape System. The second element, Ares V, is a Saturn V-plus category launch system that consists of the core stage with a cluster of six RS-68B engines and augmented with two 5.5-segment SRBs, a Saturn-derived J-2X engine powering an Earth Departure Stage (EDS), and the lunar-lander vehicle payload, Altair. Initial plans called for the Ares V to be launched first, followed the next day by the Ares I. After the EDS performs the final portion of ascent and subsequent orbit circularization, the Orion spacecraft then performs a rendezvous and docks with the EDS and its Altair payload. Following checkout, the integrated stack loiters in low Earth orbit (LEO) until the appropriate Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) window opportunity opens, at which time the EDS propels the integrated Orion Altair to the Moon. Successful completion of this 1 1/2-launch solution carries risks related to both the orbital lifetime of the assets and the probability of achieving the launch of the second vehicle within the orbital lifetime of the first. These risks, which are significant in terms of overall system design choices and probability of mission success, dictated a thorough reevaluation of the launch strategy, including the order of vehicle launch and the planned time period between launches. The goal of the effort described in this paper was to select a launch strategy that would result in the greatest possible expected system performance, while accounting for launch risks and the cost of increased orbital lifetime. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model of the launch strategies was created to determine the probability of a second launch not occurring in a timely fashion (i.e., before the assets waiting in LEO expire). An overview of the launch strategy evaluation process is presented, along with results of specific cases that were analyzed. A high-level comparison of options is then presented, along with the conclusion derived from the analysis.
The first measurement of the HCFC-142b (CH3CClF2) trend near the tropopause has been derived from volume mixing ratio (VMR) measurements at northern and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes for the 2004-2008 time period from spaceborne solar occultation observations recorded at 0.02/cm resolution with the ACE (atmospheric chemistry experiment) Fourier transform spectrometer. The HCFC-142b molecule is currently the third most abundant HCFC (hydrochlorofluorocarbon) in the atmosphere and ACE measurements over this time span show a continuous rise in its volume mixing ratio. Monthly average measurements at northern and southern hemisphere midlatitudes have similar increase rates that are consistent with surface trend measurements for a similar time span. A mean northern hemisphere profile for the time span shows a near constant VMR at 8-20km altitude range, consistent on average for the same time span with in situ results. The nearly constant vertical VMR profile also agrees with model predictions of a long lifetime in the lower atmosphere.
We present the results of three year life-aging of a specially designed prototype flight source laser operating at 1064 nm, 10 kHz, 1ns, 15W average power and external frequency doubler. The Fibertek-designed, slightly pressurized air, enclosed-container source laser operated at 1064 nm in active Q-switching mode. The external frequency doubler was set in a clean room at a normal air pressure. The goal of the experiment was to measure degradation modes at 1064 and 532 nm discreetly. The external frequency doubler consisted of a Lithium triborate, LiB3O5, crystal operated at non-critical phase-matching. Due to 1064 nm diagnostic needs, the amount of fundamental frequency power available for doubling was 13.7W. The power generated at 532 nm was between 8.5W and 10W, depending on the level of stress and degradation. The life-aging consisted of double stress-step operation for doubler crystal, at 0.35 J/cm2 for almost 1 year, corresponding to normal conditions, and then at 0.93 J/cm2 for the rest of the experiment, corresponding to accelerated testing. We observed no degradation at the first step and linear degradation at the second step. The linear degradation at the second stress-step was related to doubler crystal output surface changes and linked to laser-assisted contamination. We discuss degradation model and estimate the expected lifetime for the flight laser at 532 nm. This work was done within the laser testing for NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) LIDAR at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD with the goal of 1 trillion shots lifetime.
We present the results of three year life-aging of a specially designed prototype flight source laser operating at 1064 nm, 10 kHz, 1ns, 15W average power and external frequency doubler. The Fibertek-designed, slightly pressurized air, enclosed-container source laser operated at 1064 nm in active Q-switching mode. The external frequency doubler was set in a clean room at a normal air pressure. The goal of the experiment was to measure degradation modes at 1064 and 532 nm discreetly. The external frequency doubler consisted of a Lithium triborate, LiB3O5, crystal operated at non-critical phase-matching. Due to 1064 nm diagnostic needs, the amount of fundamental frequency power available for doubling was 13.7W. The power generated at 532 nm was between 8.5W and 10W, depending on the level of stress and degradation. The life-aging consisted of double stress-step operation for doubler crystal, at 0.35 Jcm2 for almost 1 year, corresponding to normal conditions, and then at 0.93 Jcm2 for the rest of the experiment, corresponding to accelerated testing. We observed no degradation at the first step and linear degradation at the second step. The linear degradation at the second stress-step was related to doubler crystal output surface changes and linked to laser-assisted contamination. We discuss degradation model and estimate the expected lifetime for the flight laser at 532 nm. This work was done within the laser testing for NASAs Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) LIDAR at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD with the goal of 1 trillion shots lifetime.
We evaluated the vertical profiles of both SO2 and sulfate in the AEROCOM (Aerosol Model Intercomparison) Phase II participating models. SO2 and sulfate show significant concentration gradient in both horizontal and vertical directions. Both online and offline aerosol transport models show large difference in the vertical distribution of sulfur species from surface all the way up to lower stratosphere. Comparison with available aircraft measurements suggests models agree with observations well when SO2 concentration is high. For the volcanic plumes, the injection height and magnitude determines initial SO2 plume distribution and following transport pattern. At high altitude, where the background concentration of SO2 is often below the detection limit of the current aircraft instruments and satellite retrievals, modeled SO2 and sulfate concentration, lifetime, and budget, as well as their uncertainties can be difficult to be accurately quantified.
Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.
ABSTRACT A large fraction of white dwarfs are accreting or have recently accreted rocky material from their planetary systems, thereby ‘polluting’ their atmospheres with elements heavier than helium. In recent years, the quest for mechanisms that can deliver planetesimals to the immediate vicinity of their central white dwarfs has stimulated a flurry of modelling efforts. The observed time evolution of the accretion rates of white dwarfs through their multi-Gyr lifetime is a crucial test for dynamical models of evolved planetary systems. Recent studies of cool white dwarf samples have identified a significant decrease of the mass accretion rates of cool, old white dwarfs over Gyr time-scales. Here, we revisit those results using updated white dwarf models and larger samples of old polluted H- and He-atmosphere white dwarfs. We find no compelling evidence for a strong decrease of their time-averaged mass accretion rates for cooling times between 1 and 8 Gyr. Over this period, the mass accretion rates decrease by no more than a factor of the order of 10, which is one order of magnitude smaller than the decay rate found in recent works. Our results require mechanisms that can efficiently and consistently deliver planetesimals inside the Roche radius of white dwarfs over at least 8 Gyr.
Abstract. Part 1 (Wan et al., 2024) of this study discusses the motivation and empirical evaluation of a revision to the aerosol-related numerical process coupling in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) to address the previously reported issue of strong sensitivity of the simulated dust aerosol lifetime and dry removal rate to the model's vertical resolution. This paper complements that empirical justification of the revised scheme with a mathematical justification leveraging a semi-discrete analysis framework for assessing the splitting error of process coupling methods. The framework distinguishes the error due to numerical splitting from the error due to the time integration method(s) used for each individual process. Such a distinction results in a framework that provides an intuitive understanding of the causes of the splitting error. The application of this framework to the dust life cycle in EAMv1 confirms (i) that the original EAMv1 scheme artificially strengthens the effect of dry removal processes and (ii) that the revised splitting reduces that artificial strengthening. While the error analysis framework is presented in the context of the dust life cycle in EAMv1, the framework can be broadly leveraged to evaluate process coupling schemes, both in other physical problems and for any number of processes. This framework will be particularly powerful when the various process implementations support a variety of time integration approaches. Whereas traditional local truncation error approaches require separate consideration of each combination of time integration methods, this framework enables evaluation of coupling schemes independent of particular time integration approaches for each process while still allowing for the incorporation of these specific time integration errors if so desired. The framework also explains how the splitting error terms result from (i) the integration of individual processes in isolation from other processes and (ii) the choices of input state and time step size for the isolated integration of processes. Such a perspective has the potential for the rapid development of alternative coupling approaches that utilize knowledge both about the desired accuracy and about the computational costs of individual processes.
The NA62 experiment at the CERN SPS reports a study of a sample of 4 × 10 9 tagged π0 mesons from K + → π + π 0 (γ), searching for the decay of the π 0 to invisible particles. No signal is observed in excess of the expected background fluctuations. An upper limit of 4.4 × 10 –9 is set on the branching ratio at 90% confidence level, improving on previous results by a factor of 60. This result can also be interpreted as a model- independent upper limit on the branching ratio for the decay K + → π + X, where X is a particle escaping detection with mass in the range 0.110–0.155 GeV/c 2 and rest lifetime greater than 100 ps. Model-dependent upper limits are obtained assuming X to be an axion-like particle with dominant fermion couplings or a dark scalar mixing with the Standard Model Higgs boson.
A potassium-Rankine power conversion system model was developed under Contract No. NAS3-25808 for the NASA-LeRC. This model predicts potassium-Rankine performance for turbine inlet temperatures (TIT) from 1200 - 1600 K, TIT to condenser temperature ratios from 1.25-1.6, power levels from 100 to 10,000 kWe, and lifetimes from 2-10 years. The model is for a Rankine cycle with reheat for turbine stage moisture control. The model assumes heat is supplied from a lithium heat transport loop. The model does not include a heat source or a condenser/heat rejection system model. These must be supplied by the user.
Owing to its excellent mechanical properties and stability under high temperature and neutron irradiation conditions, SiC/SiC composites have emerged as a promising material for light water reactors (LWRs) in the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) systems. Structural integrity and retention of hermeticity are two crucial requirements for SiC/SiC claddings during normal operations, and both of them are closely related to the proportional limit stress (PLS) of the material. Understanding the behavior of SiC/SiC composites under multiaxial stress states and developing a probabilistic approach for evaluating the structural vulnerability are of paramount importance for reliability-based analysis and design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. So far, there has been very limited effort towards experimental and analytical investigations of probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC claddings. This critical knowledge gap motivates this research. A probabilistic failure criterion for SiC/SiC composites under multi-axial loading is developed, and this criterion is incorporated into reliability analysis of the structural integrity of SiC/SiC fuel cladding. The research consists of two parts: 1) experimental investigation of multiaxial failure behavior of SiC/SiC composites, and 2) theoretical modeling of time-dependent probabilistic failure of SiC/SiC cladding. In the experimental investigation, the PLS is determined through the examination of stress-strain response, the acoustic emission measurement, as well as the X-ray computed tomography. The theoretical framework is derived by combin- ing the finite weakest-link statistical model and the subcritical damage growth model. This theoretical model captures the time-dependent failure mechanism of the material, which has a major consequence for predicting the lifetime distribution of the cladding. Meanwhile, the model also predicts that the failure statistics of the cladding depends strongly on the cladding length. The results of the multiaxial experiments reveal the level of statistical variation of the PLS of SiC/SiC materials under different stress states. The theoretical model provides a robust analytical tool for extrapolation of small-scale laboratory test results to the behavior of full-scale claddings. These findings establish a scientific foundation for the development of reliability-based design of SiC/SiC fuel claddings, which will play an essential role in improving the structural safety and integrity of LWRs.
The luminescence lifetime technique was used to make pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) measurements on a 2.7% Common Research Model in the NASA Ames 11ft Transonic Wind Tunnel. PSP data were obtained on the upper and lower surfaces of the wing and horizontal tail, as well as one side of the fuselage. Data were taken for several model attitudes of interest at Mach numbers between 0.70 and 0.87. Image data were mapped onto a three-dimensional surface grid suitable both for comparison with CFD and for integration of pressures to determine loads. Luminescence lifetime measurements were made using strobed LED (light-emitting diode) lamps to illuminate the PSP and fast-framing interline transfer cameras to acquire the PSP emission.