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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning for NASA Advanced Information Systems

NASA's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program is one of several Technology programs managed by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) in the Earth Science Division (ESD). The AIST Program focuses on advanced information systems and novel computer science technologies that will be needed by NASA Earth Science in the next 5 to 10 years. The three main thrusts of the AIST Program deal with Novel Observing Strategies (NOS), Analytic Collaborative Frameworks (ACF) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). For all these thrusts, Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly being used in multiple aspects of Earth science systems, e.g., for onboard autonomy and decision making, for the analysis of massive and diverse datasets as well as more recently for developing surrogate models that will represent one of the main components of future Digital Twins of the Earth. Particularly, ESDT technologies developed by the AIST Program will allow to develop integrated Earth Science frameworks that will mirror the Earth with state-of-the-art models (Earth system models and others), timely and relevant observations, and analytic tools. These information systems will be used for supporting near- and long-term science and policy decisions. ESDT frameworks will build on previously developed AIST capabilities and technologies to integrate interconnected models with continuous streams of observations, data analytics, data assimilation, simulations, advanced visualizations and the ability to conduct "what-if" scenarios. This talk will describe the three thrusts of the AIST Program with a special focus on Machine Learning and how it is being used at all steps of the Earth Science data lifecycle.

Mathematical and Computer Sciences (General)↗

DOE OSTI2023

PNNL DataHub NIAID Program Project: Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections, Multi-Omic Viral Dataset Catalog Collection

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) "Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections" program project was a highly integrated and comprehensive systems biology research core, funded by the National Institute of Health (U19AI106772) from 2013-06-01 to 2018-05-31, investigating the complex host response to category A, B, and C priority pathogen infections. Resulting project deliverables include an extensive comprehensive collections of linked primary and secondary transformation viral experimental infection data. Here we provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open access to viral Omics lifecycle datasets and project metadata. Using a highly integrated and multidisciplinary approach, linked primary data and metadata supporting secondary normalization datasets, provide critical information necessary for research reproducibility and long-term preservation. Enabling on-demand data access for research community consumption and developer reuse, serves to support new mechanistic insights and discoveries into host-pathogen interactions for aiding future biohazard data preparedness efforts in emergency response to global health crises involving viral infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

JPL Innovation Foundry

Space science missions are increasingly challenged today: in ambition, by increasingly sophisticated hypotheses tested; in development, by the increasing complexity of advanced technologies; in budgeting, by the decline of flagship-class mission opportunities; in management, by expectations for breakthrough science despite a risk-averse programmatic climate; and in planning, by increasing competition for scarce resources. How are the space-science missions of tomorrow being formulated? The paper describes the JPL Innovation Foundry, created in 2011, to respond to this evolving context. The Foundry integrates methods, tools, and experts that span the mission concept lifecycle. Grounded in JPL's heritage of missions, flight instruments, mission proposals, and concept innovation, the Foundry seeks to provide continuity of support and cost-effective, on-call access to the right domain experts at the right time, as science definition teams and Principal Investigators mature mission ideas from "cocktail napkin" to PDR. The Foundry blends JPL capabilities in proposal development and concurrent engineering, including Team X, with new approaches for open-ended concept exploration in earlier, cost-constrained phases, and with ongoing research and technology projects. It applies complexity and cost models, projectformulation lessons learned, and strategy analyses appropriate to each level of concept maturity. The Foundry is organizationally integrated with JPL formulation program offices; staffed by JPL's line organizations for engineering, science, and costing; and overseen by senior Laboratory leaders to assure experienced coordination and review. Incubation of each concept is tailored depending on its maturity and proposal history, and its highest leverage modeling and analysis needs.

mission development↗

NASA NTRS2000

High Energy Flywheel Containment Evaluation

A flywheel testing facility is being constructed at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This facility is to be used for life cycle testing of various flywheel rotors. The lifecycle testing consists of spinning a rotor from a low rpm (approx. 20,000 ) to a high rpm (approx. 60,000) and then back to the low rpm. This spin cycle will model that which the rotor will see during use. To simulate the lifetime of the rotor, the spin cycle will be performed tens of thousands of times. A typical life cycle spin test is expected to last six months. During this time the rotor will be spun through a cycle every five minutes. The test will run continuously for the six month period barring a flywheel failure. Since it is not reasonable to have the surrounding area evacuated of personnel for the duration of the testing, the flywheel facility has to be designed to withstand a flywheel rotor failure and insure that there is no danger to any personnel in the adjacent buildings or surrounding areas. In order to determine if the facility can safely contain a flywheel rotor failure an analysis of the facility in conjunction with possible flywheel failure modes was performed. This analysis is intended as a worst case evaluation of the burst liner and vacuum tank's ability to contain a failure. The test chamber consists of a cylindrical stainless steel vacuum tank, two outer steel containment rings, and a stainless steel burst liner. The stainless steel used is annealed 302, which has an ultimate strength of 620 MPa (90,000 psi). A diagram of the vacuum tank configuration is shown. The vacuum tank and air turbine will be located below ground in a pit. The tank is secured in the pit with 0.3 m (12 in.) of cement along the base and the remaining portion of the tank is surrounded by gravel up to the access ports. A 590 kg (1300 lb.) bulkhead is placed on top of the pit during operation and the complete facility is housed within a concrete structure which has 7.5 cm (3 in.) thick walls. A cutaway of the facility is shown.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reekeekee- and roodoodooviruses, two different Microviridae clades constituted by the smallest DNA phages

Small circular single-stranded DNA viruses of the Microviridae family are both prevalent and diverse in all ecosystems. They usually harbor a genome between 4.3 and 6.3 kb, with a microvirus recently isolated from a marine Alphaproteobacteria being the smallest known genome of a DNA phage (4.248 kb). A subfamily, Amoyvirinae, has been proposed to classify this virus and other related small Alphaproteobacteria-infecting phages. Here, we report the discovery, in meta-omics data sets from various aquatic ecosystems, of sixteen complete microvirus genomes significantly smaller (2.991–3.692 kb) than known ones. Phylogenetic analysis reveals that these sixteen genomes represent two related, yet distinct and diverse, novel groups of microviruses—amoyviruses being their closest known relatives. We propose that these small microviruses are members of two tentatively named subfamilies Reekeekeevirinae and Roodoodoovirinae. As known microvirus genomes encode many overlapping and overprinted genes that are not identified by gene prediction software, we developed a new methodology to identify all genes based on protein conservation, amino acid composition, and selection pressure estimations. Surprisingly, only four to five genes could be identified per genome, with the number of overprinted genes lower than that in phiX174. These small genomes thus tend to have both a lower number of genes and a shorter length for each gene, leaving no place for variable gene regions that could harbor overprinted genes. Even more surprisingly, these two Microviridae groups had specific and different gene content, and major differences in their conserved protein sequences, highlighting that these two related groups of small genome microviruses use very different strategies to fulfill their lifecycle with such a small number of genes. The discovery of these genomes and the detailed prediction and annotation of their genome content expand our understanding of ssDNA phages in nature and are further evidence that these viruses have explored a wide range of possibilities during their long evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

Traditionally, the transportation system’s resiliency to the impacts of weather is an area where neglected or incorrect assumptions can lead to difficulties later in the research and development lifecycle. To mitigate this, NASA has ongoing efforts to develop a set of research roadmaps for organizing, integrating, and communicating research into new aviation infrastructure and transportation modalities, within which weather is being addressed early on. An effort has been undertaken to add weather assumptions and requirements to an already-existing roadmap for the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airspace, seeking to integrate weather requirements early in the system design. This effort addresses the way in which state-of-the art and evolving weather science and technology can enable safe and efficient travel with increasing tempo of UAM operations over time. This paper describes the addition of weather as one of 10 capabilities into the UAM Airspace research roadmap, laying out the anticipated weather technology and information requirements needed to facilitate operations at various UAM Maturity Levels. The process developed and exercised by MIT Lincoln Laboratory researchers produced 41 unique requirements to be satisfied by a Weather capability for the UAM ecosystem, with more than 300 dependencies identified across the system. These requirements cover measurement, analysis, modeling, forecasting, decision support, dissemination, and overarching policy, and are provided with an overview of weather challenges for UAM. The requirements were mainly defined based on subject matter expert review of existing UAM Airspace system requirements, and refined based on iterative feedback with various stakeholders including regulators, academia, and industry. Going forward, this roadmap will help researchers and developers align to a common vision in ensuring that weather is appropriately considered in the UAM ecosystem.

Timothy Bonin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of a Weather Capability for the Urban Air Mobility Airspace Research Roadmap

research roadmap↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System

Create analytical framework to capture costs and benefits of the automated sorting into battery recycling including the development and deployment of various types of battery recycling technologies such as pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical, and direct recycling. Li Industries, Inc. is a Virginia startup company focused on reinventing how lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are recycled. Li Industries is focused on developing direct LIB recycling and automated battery sorting technologies in order to reduce the environmental impact of the LIB lifecycle. This work is to be conducted in support of the American-Made Challenges Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Prize. Li Industries and NREL will work together to understand how novel technologies, such as those being developed by Li Industries, can impact the development and economics of the battery recycling industry. This voucher is being used to evaluate the profitability of an automated sorting system developed by Li Industries and the potential effect this increased value could have on the domestic lithium-ion battery (LIB) recycling industries in the United States. NREL has developed the Lithium-Ion Battery Resources Assessment (LIBRA) system dynamics model to project the future viability of the US LIB manufacturing and recycling industries under varying technoeconomic conditions and battery adoption scenarios over the coming decades. Additional logic was added to LIBRA to analyze the role automated sorting of recycling feedstock could play in the buildout of the industry and the impacts it has on the recovery of end-of-life (EOL) battery materials. This report summarizes the outcomes of this modeling analysis in the US context through a series of sensitivity analyses run for a range of values of a given input dimension and compared across the unsorted or automated sorting cases for LIB recycling feedstock. For greater detail on the process and analysis, the researchers are publishing a forthcoming journal article titled Techno-Economic Impact of a Smart Battery Sorting System for Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling and Mineral Recovery in the United States by Weigl, et al. In the event the article is not accepted by any currently seeking publication in academic or industry journal, it may be published by NREL. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: assists laboratory in achieving programmatic scope competencies, uses the laboratory's core competencies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

PNNL DataHub Project: Omics Lethal Human Viruses Project Profiling of the Host Response to Influenza A Virus Infection, Processed Experimental Dataset Catalog

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a high risk biological agent, classified as a Category C priority pathogen (Orthomyxoviridae) by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and is known to cause severe respiratory disease with high mortality rates in humans. Lethal host-pathogen invasion mechanisms and the cellular intricacies behind these fatal infections still remain unclear. The NIAID Modeling Host Responses to Understand Severe Human Virus Infections Research Program project (2013-2018) aimed to develop an improved comprehensive understanding of the host response to a suite of viruses causing lethal infections leveraging a systems biology approach. Herein, PNNL sub-projects provide a never before released comprehensive infectious disease collection of primary and secondary transformation multi-Omics data profiling a series of priority pathogen primary experimental studies for enhanced open-access to viral Omics datasets and project lifecycle metadata. Secondary host-pathogen viral dataset downloads contain one or more statistically processed (normalization data transformation) quantitative dataset collections resulting in qualitative expression analyses of primary host-pathogen experimental study designs. Leveraging unique high-resolution Omics capabilities for proteomics (P), metabolomics (M), lipidomics (L), and transcriptomics (T) dataset downloads each have a direct relationship to a primary sample submission corresponding to a specific Influenza A virus [NCBITAXON:11320] experimental infection study. Host sample types include human lung adenocarcinoma cells ["Calu-3", BTO:0002750] and whole mouse lung [BTO:0000763] tissue collections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

WBS 1.2.3.405 - Life Cycle Assessment of Storage Technologies

Recent commitments by the Biden administration have established targets to achieve a net-zero energy system by 2050. Meeting these targets will spur a rapid transition to clean energy technologies and a commensurate need to develop and deploy energy storage technologies at scale. Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) is expected to be part of this solution because its ability to provide grid flexibility and stability and enable the dispatching of disparate variable renewable energy technologies. Despite PSH being a mature technology with a history of deployment dating back several decades, there is very little information on the greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of PSH as compared to other storage technologies. The objective of this project is to perform a full lifecycle assessment (LCA) of new PSH projects in the U.S. This LCA includes all project phases (resource extraction, construction, operation, maintenance, end-of-life). The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh electricity delivered by system to grid substation connection point and the estimated lifetime for our base case is 80 years. Data used in this study are based on over 30 potential PSH projects that are in preliminary planning phases and are represent a wide range of potential closed-loop PSH systems in terms of location, technology, and capacity. The project approach, data sources, and modeling assumptions have been informed by a technical review committee of stakeholders that include experts from academia, national and international government, industry, and utilities. The GHGs and energy return on investment (EROI) from PSH will be compared to other storage technologies (e.g., stationary battery storage). Results from this project will improve the PSH community's understanding of the environmental impacts and sustainability of new PSH projects and how PSH compares to other storage technologies. The approach used in this project relies on open-source programming. The analysis framework (source code and data) and will be made publicly available at the end of the project. In addition to reporting results for the base case, we will perform rigorous sensitivity analysis to identify the major drivers, understand impacts of different configurations, and future energy markets. Results from this project will be published in a suitable journal.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preservation of Provenance and Context to Ensure Future Understandability of Airborne Earth Observations and Derived Data Products

Open-source science goes beyond making data from scientific projects (e.g., on-orbit/satellite missions, airborne and field investigations, and other data producing activities) openly available after they are generated, but involves and open sharing of information throughout the project lifecycle. Preservation of the data and associated information required for understanding and reusing the data well after the scientific projects is a contributor to open-source science as well. Considering the high investment in the on-orbit/satellite missions, we had developed a document titled “NASA Earth Science Data Preservation Content Specification (PCS)” in 2011. This document has been used as a requirement for recent on-orbit/satellite missions by NASA. Recently it became clear that the specifications should be applied to other scientific projects as well. Therefore, the document was revised to cover other types of projects, and a Preservation Content Implementation Guidance (PCIG) document was also developed. The revised PCS, and the PCIG, were published in 2022. The purpose of this presentation is to highlight the contents of these documents as they apply to suborbital/airborne investigations. The PCS calls for content preservation in eight general categories - Measuring Instrument/Platform Description, Instrument and Science Data Products and Metadata, Science Raw Data, Product and Algorithm Documentation, Instrument Calibration, Science Algorithm Software, Science Data Product Algorithm Inputs, Science Data Product Validation, and Science Data Access and Analysis Tools. While all these categories apply to various types of projects, a few clarifying sentences have been added to the descriptions of contents in each of the categories to show which categories are especially important to airborne and field investigations and where some contents are not applicable (or difficult to obtain). The PCIG document provides some general guidance applicable to all types of projects and specific guidance in a separate section for airborne and field investigations. This section calls out typical artifacts produced during such investigations that can meet the spirit of the various PCS categories.

remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic System Scaling Applied to Zr-4 Cladding under RIA Conditions

The research and development lifecycle for new fuel designs currently has an ideal 20-25 year timeline. Efforts are currrently underway to accelerate fuel design and development using high performance fuel modeling codes and reduced scale experiments with new instrumentation techniques. However current tools available require a full scale prototype to be designed and tested for fuel qualification. The thermal-hydraulics community has leveraged scaling methodologies to use reduced scale integral effect test facilities (Westinghouse AP600/1000, NuScale Power Module) in lieu of building full scale prototypes for reactor design certification. Dynamic System Scaling (DSS) is a recent development to scaling methodologies that enable the tracking and quantification of dynamic scaling distortions experienced throughout a transient. Recent TREAT experiments performed reactivity initiated accident (RIA) pulses on UO2 fuel rodlets in Zr-4 cladding and were accompanied by BISON predictions for the cladding temperature. DSS is applied to pyrometer data of outer cladding temperatures and two BISON predictions after peak cladding temperature has been reached. One BISON case uses a constant gap conductance value between the fuel and cladding and the other using a conventional gap conductance model. Results from the DSS analysis show that there is good agreement between both BISON predictions and the experimental data and that there is not a significant distortion seen between using either gap conductance model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing spatiotemporal forecasts of CO 2 plume migration using deep learning networks with transfer learning and interpretation analysis

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume distribution throughout the injection and post-injection phases are crucial for detecting plume migration, assessing leakage risks, and supporting operational decisions in geologic carbon storage (GCS). Current convolutional neural network-based approaches primarily focus on spatial information and overlook temporal dependencies in plume distributions, thus limiting their ability to capture dynamic movement effects and provide accurate predictions of plume migration. In this work, we propose two deep learning models, Auto-Encoder (AE)-LSTM and Encoder-Decoder (ED)-ConvLSTM, each uniquely designed to capture both spatial and temporal features. We apply the proposed methods to forecast the dynamic distribution of CO 2 plumes based on 108 reservoir simulations over a 30-year injection and a 30-year post-injection period. The results indicate that the ED-ConvLSTM model outperforms the AE-LSTM model in accurately predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of CO 2 plume migration, achieving R 2 values above 0.99. To provide a deeper understanding of these model predictions, we employ a gradient-based explanation method on the trained models. This approach provides insights into the influence of input variables on plume migration forecasts and uncovers the underlying prediction mechanisms of the proposed models. Furthermore, we introduce a transfer learning technique, enabling fast and accurate plume migration forecasting in the post-injection phase by leveraging the trained model during the injection phase. This reduces the necessity for extensive data collection or re-training. In conclusion, the methods proposed in our work enhances the performance and interpretability of CO 2 plume migration forecasts, thereby facilitating informed decision-making throughout the entire lifecycle of GCS applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Performance of a Circular Economy for Wind Energy Technologies: A Summary of Three Analytical Tools

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources and presents opportunities for addressing series of economic and environmental objectives at local, regional, and national levels. Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. As a result, it is important to evaluate the performance and tradeoffs associated with circular economy transitions. This poster summaries three previously published analytical tools that were used to assess the performance of developing a circular economy for wind energy technologies: the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database (REMPD), a circular economy agent-based model for wind blades (CE Wind ABM), and the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework. The REMPD is a comprehensive database of materials used in wind and solar plants, including material quantities and physical materials availability. The CE Wind ABM allows us to understand how wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors influence wind blade circularity and evaluate the impact of regional variables (e.g., logistics and transportation). And, the CELAVI framework is a modular framework that can be used to evaluate the impacts associated with circular economy transitions. These three analytical tools have been applied to evaluate circular economy transitions for wind energy technologies and they could be expanded to other technologies and products.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Jamaican Domestic Ethanol Fuel Feasibility and Benefits Analysis

The Government of Jamaica asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to determine if the use of domestically produced ethanol motor fuel could help them achieve their goals to develop its economy and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first step was to determine how much ethanol could be used by Jamaican vehicles in blends of 10% (E10 – current blend level), 15% (E15), or 25% (E25). All blend levels make for feasible automotive fuels and are being used or pursued in multiple countries. Building on gross domestic product (GDP)-related projections made by the Johnson et al. (2019) business as usual scenario, the quantity of ethanol to be used in future years and blend levels is shown in Table ES1. All blend levels are assumed to achieve the same volumetric fuel economy because of verified efficiency improvements enabled by increased octane levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of a σ–(c-di-GMP)–anti-σ switch

Filamentous actinobacteria of the genus Streptomyces have a complex lifecycle involving the differentiation of reproductive aerial hyphae into spores. We recently showed c-di-GMP controls this transition by arming a unique anti-σ, RsiG, to bind the sporulation-specific σ, WhiG. The Streptomyces venezuelae RsiG–(c-di-GMP) 2 –WhiG structure revealed that a monomeric RsiG binds c-di-GMP via two E(X) 3 S(X) 2 R(X) 3 Q(X) 3 D repeat motifs, one on each helix of an antiparallel coiled-coil. Here we show that RsiG homologs are found scattered throughout the Actinobacteria. Strikingly, RsiGs from unicellular bacteria descending from the most basal branch of the Actinobacteria are small proteins containing only one c-di-GMP binding motif, yet still bind their WhiG partners. Our structure of a Rubrobacter radiotolerans (RsiG) 2 –(c-di-GMP) 2 –WhiG complex revealed that these single-motif RsiGs are able to form an antiparallel coiled-coil through homodimerization, thereby allowing them to bind c-di-GMP similar to the monomeric twin-motif RsiGs. Further data show that in the unicellular actinobacterium R. radiotolerans , the (RsiG) 2 –(c-di-GMP) 2 –WhiG regulatory switch controls type IV pilus expression. Phylogenetic analysis indicates the single-motif RsiGs likely represent the ancestral state and an internal gene-duplication event gave rise to the twin-motif RsiGs inherited elsewhere in the Actinobacteria. Thus, these studies show how the anti-σ RsiG has evolved through an intragenic duplication event from a small protein carrying a single c-di-GMP binding motif, which functions as a homodimer, to a larger protein carrying two c-di-GMP binding motifs, which functions as a monomer. Consistent with this, our structures reveal potential selective advantages of the monomeric twin-motif anti-σ factors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Cloud Modeling Using Field Project Data for the Study of Precipitation Processes

The use of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in the study of precipitation process and their relation to the large-scale environment can be generally categorized into two approaches. The first approach is so called "cloud ensemble modeling". In this approach, many clouds of different size in various stages of their lifecycles can be present at any model simulation time. Large-scale effects are derived from observations and imposed into the model as the main forcing. The advantage of this approach is that the modeled convection will be forced to have the same intensity, thermodynamic budget and organization as the obserations.This approach will also allow CRMs to perform multi-day or multi-week time integrations. The second approach usually requires initial temperature and water vapor profiles that have a medium to large CAPE, and open lateral boundary conditions are used. The modeled clouds could be termed "self-forced convection". Model improvements, such as in the microphysics, are achieved using the second approach. In cloud ensemble modeling, accurate large-scale advective tendencies for temperature and water vapor are the main forcing for the CRMs. We found that the large-scale advective terms for temperature and water vapor are not always consistent, For example, large-scale forcing could indicate strong drying which would produce cooling in the model through evaporation but not contain large-scale advective heating to compensate. This discrepancy in forcing would cause differences between the observed and modeled latent heating profiles. Good measurements of other quantities (i.e., surface fluxes and radiation) are also required to perform variational objective analysis that computes and minimizes a "cost function" that constrains the difference between the large-scale advective forcing in temperature and water vapor. With self-forced convection, accurate vertical distributions of temperature, moisture (water vapor), and horizontal winds are required. The timing of the measurements relative to cloud development is crucial (i.e., prior to cloud triggering). Microphysical measurements (i.e., the cloud number concentration and size distribution) can also be used in this second approach but are of secondary importance with cloud ensemble modeling. In this paper, data collected during TRMM field campaigns (FCs; i.e., SCSMEX, LBA and KWAJEX) which were aimed at validating TRMM products (i.e., rainfall and the vertical distribution of latent heating) will be used to examine the impact of errors in the initial conditions (e.g.., soundings an large-scale forcing) on simulated rainfall distributions and brightness. Rainfall and precipitations simulated from a CRM will also be compared with those estimated by a schocastic model.

Tao, W.-K.↗