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NASA NTRS1998

Design, Evaluation and GCM-Performance of a New Parameterization for Microphysics of Clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (McRas)

A prognostic cloud scheme named McRAS (Microphysics of clouds with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme) was developed with the aim of improving cloud-microphysics, and cloud-radiation interactions in GCMs. McRAS distinguishes convective, stratiform, and boundary-layer clouds. The convective clouds merge into stratiform clouds on an hourly time-scale, while the boundary-layer clouds do so instantly. The cloud condensate transforms into precipitation following the auto-conversion relations of Sundqvist that contain a parametric adaptation for the Bergeron-Findeisen process of ice crystal growth and collection of cloud condensate by precipitation. All clouds convect, advect, and diffuse both horizontally and vertically with a fully active cloud-microphysics throughout its life-cycle, while the optical properties of clouds are derived from the statistical distribution of hydrometeors and idealized cloud geometry. An evaluation of McRAS in a single column model (SCM) with the GATE Phase III data has shown that McRAS can simulate the observed temperature, humidity, and precipitation without discernible systematic errors. An evaluation with the ARM-CART SCM data in a cloud model intercomparison exercise shows reasonable but not an outstanding accurate simulation. Such a discrepancy is common to almost all models and is related, in part, to the input data quality. McRAS was implemented in the GEOS II GCM. A 50 month integration that was initialized with the ECMWF analysis of observations for January 1, 1987 and forced with the observed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice distribution and vegetation properties (biomes, and soils), with prognostic soil moisture, snow-cover, and hydrology showed a very realistic simulation of cloud process, incloud water and ice, and cloud-radiative forcing (CRF). The simulated ITCZ showed a realistic time-mean structure and seasonal cycle, while the simulated CRF showed sensitivity to vertical distribution of cloud water which can be easily altered by the choice of time constant and incloud critical cloud water amount regulators for auto-conversion. The CRF and its feedbacks also have a profound effect on the ITCZ. Even though somewhat weaker than observed, the McRAS-GCM simulation produces robust 30-60 day oscillations in the 200 hPa velocity potential. Two ensembles of 4-summer (July, August, September) simulations, one each for 1987 and 1988 show that the McRAS-GCM simulates realistic and statistically significant precipitation differences over India, Central America, and tropical Africa. Several seasonal simulations were performed with McRAS-GEOS II GCM for the summer (June-July- August) and winter (December-January-February) periods to determine how the simulated clouds and CRFs would be affected by: i) advection of clouds; ii) cloud top entrainment instability, iii) cloud water inhomogeneity correction, and (iv) cloud production and dissipation in different cloud-processes. The results show that each of these processes contributes to the simulated cloud-fraction and CRF.

Sud, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Building Operations Efficiencies into NASA's Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle Design

The U.S. Vision for Space Exploration guides the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) challenging missions that expand humanity's boundaries and open new routes to the space frontier. With the Agency's commitment to complete the International Space Station (ISS) and to retire the venerable Space Shuttle by 2010, the NASA Administrator commissioned the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) in 2005 to analyze options for safe, simple, cost-efficient launch solutions that could deliver human-rated space transportation capabilities in a timely manner within fixed budget guidelines. The Exploration Launch Projects (ELP) Office, chartered by the Constellation Program in October 2005, has been conducting systems engineering studies and business planning to successively refine the design configurations and better align vehicle concepts with customer and stakeholder requirements, such as significantly reduced life-cycle costs. As the Agency begins the process of replacing the Shuttle with a new generation of spacecraft destined for missions beyond low-Earth orbit to the Moon and Mars, NASA is designing the follow-on crew and cargo launch systems for maximum operational efficiencies. To sustain the long-term exploration of space, it is imperative to reduce the $4 billion NASA typically spends on space transportation each year. This paper gives toplevel information about how the follow-on Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) is being designed for improved safety and reliability, coupled with reduced operations costs. These methods include carefully developing operational requirements; conducting operability design and analysis; using the latest information technology tools to design and simulate the vehicle; and developing a learning culture across the workforce to ensure a smooth transition between Space Shuttle operations and Ares vehicle development.

Dumbacher, Daniel L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Interstellar Bullet Engine IRAS 05506+2414

Throughout their life-cycles, high-mass stars inject large amounts of energy and momentum into theirenvironments through stellar winds. Results from a study of the Orion BN/KL region indicate that disruption of a massive young stellar system can lead to an explosive event producing a wide-angle outflow, different from the classical bipolar flows driven by young stellar object (YSO) accretion disks. The discovery of a massive YSO, IRAS 05506+2414, may prove to be the second instance of this uncommon outflow. Prior to this study, data was collected using the Arizona Radio Observatory's 10-meter and 12-meter telescopes. Spectra of 16 different molecular line transitions were organized, reduced, and prepared for further analysis. A variety of molecular transitions were observed, such as 12CO 2-1, HCO+ 3-2, CS 3-2, in order to probe physical conditions of the YSO. From line transitions like HCO+ 3-2, we will determine physical properties like density, temperature, and velocity of our source object. For each molecular transition, the spectra were averaged in subsets, which were then averaged to produce a final spectra with an optimal signal to noise ratio. Future radiative modeling will yield mass and energetics of IRAS05506+2414.

millimeter-wave↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating geographic origins of corn and soybean biomass for biofuel production: A detailed dataset

Sustainable fuel initiatives in the United States such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Stan- dard and the Department of Energy’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge have increased the production of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. However, the lack of precise information regarding biomass sourcing at a localized level has hindered accurate understanding of both biofuel costs and environmental impact of these production pathways. By harnessing the power of geospatial analysis and leveraging United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop cen- sus data, this dataset fills this critical knowledge gap. This dataset offers a novel estimation of geospatial biomass sourc- ing for biofuel production in the United States by synthe- sizing 2017 USDA crop census data, biorefinery data from the United States Energy Information Administration, and publicly available information about biomass sourcing for biofuel production. This dataset provides a detailed under- standing of biomass use for first generation biofuel pro- duction, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment strategies, and infras- tructure development. Furthermore, the county-level gran- ularity of the dataset allows for increased fidelity in the techno-economic assessments and life-cycle analyses of first- generation biofuels in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1995

System identification methods for aircraft flight control development and validation

System-identification methods compose a mathematical model, or series of models, from measurements of inputs and outputs of dynamic systems. The extracted models allow the characterization of the response of the overall aircraft or component subsystem behavior, such as actuators and on-board signal processing algorithms. This paper discusses the use of frequency-domain system-identification methods for the development and integration of aircraft flight-control systems. The extraction and analysis of models of varying complexity from nonparametric frequency-responses to transfer-functions and high-order state-space representations is illustrated using the Comprehensive Identification from FrEquency Responses (CIFER) system-identification facility. Results are presented for test data of numerous flight and simulation programs at the Ames Research Center including rotorcraft, fixed-wing aircraft, advanced short takeoff and vertical landing (ASTOVL), vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL), tiltrotor aircraft, and rotor experiments in the wind tunnel. Excellent system characterization and dynamic response prediction is achieved for this wide class of systems. Examples illustrate the role of system-identification technology in providing an integrated flow of dynamic response data around the entire life-cycle of aircraft development from initial specifications, through simulation and bench testing, and into flight-test optimization.

Tischler, Mark B.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Scaled centrifugal compressor, collector and running gear program

The Scaled Centrifugal Compressor, Collector and Running gear Program was conducted in support of an overall NASA strategy to improve small-compressor performance, durability, and reliability while reducing initial and life-cycle costs. Accordingly, Garrett designed and provided a test rig, gearbox coupling, and facility collector for a new NASA facility, and provided a scaled model of an existing, high-performance impeller for evaluation scaling effects on aerodynamic performance and for obtaining other performance data. Test-rig shafting was designed to operate smoothly throughout a speed range up to 60,000 rpm. Pressurized components were designed to operate at pressures up to 300 psia and at temperatures to 1000 F. Nonrotating components were designed to provide a margin-of-safety of 0.05 or greater; rotating components, for a margin-of-safety based on allowable yield and ultimate strengths. Design activities were supported by complete design analysis, and the finished hardware was subjected to check-runs to confirm proper operation. The test rig will support a wide range of compressor tests and evaluations.

Kenehan, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The cleanroom case study in the Software Engineering Laboratory: Project description and early analysis

This case study analyzes the application of the cleanroom software development methodology to the development of production software at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The cleanroom methodology emphasizes human discipline in program verification to produce reliable software products that are right the first time. Preliminary analysis of the cleanroom case study shows that the method can be applied successfully in the FDD environment and may increase staff productivity and product quality. Compared to typical Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) activities, there is evidence of lower failure rates, a more complete and consistent set of inline code documentation, a different distribution of phase effort activity, and a different growth profile in terms of lines of code developed. The major goals of the study were to: (1) assess the process used in the SEL cleanroom model with respect to team structure, team activities, and effort distribution; (2) analyze the products of the SEL cleanroom model and determine the impact on measures of interest, including reliability, productivity, overall life-cycle cost, and software quality; and (3) analyze the residual products in the application of the SEL cleanroom model, such as fault distribution, error characteristics, system growth, and computer usage.

Green, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Androgynous Fasteners for Robotic Structural Assembly

We describe the design and analysis of an androgynous fastener for autonomous robotic assembly of high performance structures. The design of these fasteners aims to prioritize ease of assembly through simple actuation with large driver positioning tolerance requirements, while producing a reversible mechanical connection with high strength and stiffness per mass. This can be applied to high strength to weight ratio structural systems, such as discrete building block based systems that offer reconfigurability, scalability, and system lifecycle efficiency. Such periodic structures are suitable for navigation and manipulation by relatively small mobile robots. The integration of fasteners, which are lightweight and can be robotically installed, into a high performance robotically managed structural system is of interest to reduce launch energy requirements, enable higher mission adaptivity, and decrease system life-cycle costs.

Formoso, Olivia↗

NASA NTRS2023

Exploration Extra-Vehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) Composite Hard Upper Torso (CHUT) Development

The xEMU is the Exploration Mobility Unity or space suit designed for microgravity (cislunar and low earth orbit (LEO)) and lunar surface operations. This suit design allows crewmembers to perform extravehicular exploration, science, construction, maintenance, and contingency operations while unattached to a vehicle for life support in pressure and thermal environments that exceed human capability. The xEMU provides life support, environmental protection, and communications capabilities to the EVA crewmember while allowing sufficient mobility and visibility to perform dexterous EVA tasks. The effort documented in this paper, addressed the design, analysis, manufacturing, full-scale test article testing and validation for a Composite Hard Upper Torso(CHUT)unit. Design and analysis of the CHUT was based on measured B-basis properties of the selected S-glass/epoxy composite, and established final geometry, composite layup and interface details that met requirements. A complete manufacturing and assembly protocol was established for the CHUT starting from composite layup in the tool, to final assembly of all interface metal hardware prior to delivery to NASA for suit integration. Full-scale CHUT test articles underwent static and fatigue pressure testing (2 lifetimes), impact testing at critical stress locations for tool drop/microgravity scenarios, followed by post-impact fatigue testing. Effect of manufacturing defects was evaluated by manufacturing a full-scale CHUT with 0.375”/0.5” defects at critical stress locations, followed by static and life-cycle fatigue testing. In all cases, the CHUT design met or exceeded mass, structural, interface and functional requirements. Two (2) complete CHUT articles were delivered to NASA for full-scale suit integration and testing.

spacesuit↗

NASA NTRS2023

Composite Hard Upper Torso (CHUT) for xEMU Space Suit

spacesuit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary techno-economic assessment of gas switching reforming (GSR) of natural gas for pure hydrogen production and power generation with integrated CO2 capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H2, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H2, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Material flows and GHG emissions from housing stock evolution in US counties, 2020–60

The evolution of housing stocks determines demand for construction materials and energy, and associated emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs). The contribution of construction to building life-cycle emissions is growing as buildings become more energy efficient and the energy supply decarbonizes. A housing stock model is developed for counties in the United States using dynamic vacancy rates which endogenously influence stock out- and inflows. Stocks of three house types and 10 construction cohorts are projected for all contiguous US counties for the period 2020–60. Inflows and outflows of construction materials are then estimated along with GHG emissions associated with material production and construction activities in scenarios defined by stock turnover rates, population share by house type, and floor area characteristics of new houses. The results provide new insights into the drivers of construction-related emissions at local and national levels, and identify opportunities for their reduction. Demolition material flows grow in relation to construction material flows over the analysis period. Increasing the stock turnover rate increases future floor area per person, material requirements, and emissions from construction. Scenarios with reduced floor area and more multifamily homes in new construction have lower floor area growth, material requirements, and emissions from construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Space Launch System Operations Outlook

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), is working with the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program, based at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), to deliver a new safe, affordable, and sustainable capability for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit (BEO). Larger than the Saturn V Moon rocket, SLS will provide 10 percent more thrust at liftoff in its initial 70 metric ton (t) configuration and 20 percent more in its evolved 130-t configuration. The primary mission of the SLS rocket will be to launch astronauts to deep space destinations in the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), also in development and managed by the Johnson Space Center. Several high-priority science missions also may benefit from the increased payload volume and reduced trip times offered by this powerful, versatile rocket. Reducing the life-cycle costs for NASA's space transportation flagship will maximize the exploration and scientific discovery returned from the taxpayer's investment. To that end, decisions made during development of SLS and associated systems will impact the nation's space exploration capabilities for decades. This paper will provide an update to the operations strategy presented at SpaceOps 2012. It will focus on: 1) Preparations to streamline the processing flow and infrastructure needed to produce and launch the world's largest rocket (i.e., through incorporation and modification of proven, heritage systems into the vehicle and ground systems); 2) Implementation of a lean approach to reachback support of hardware manufacturing, green-run testing, and launch site processing and activities; and 3) Partnering between the vehicle design and operations communities on state-ofthe- art predictive operations analysis techniques. An example of innovation is testing the integrated vehicle at the processing facility in parallel, rather than sequentially, saving both time and money. These themes are accomplished under the context of a new cross-program integration model that emphasizes peer-to-peer accountability and collaboration towards a common, shared goal. Utilizing the lessons learned through 50 years of human space flight experience, SLS is assigning the right number of people from appropriate backgrounds, providing them the right tools, and exercising the right processes for the job. The result will be a powerful, versatile, and capable heavy-lift, human-rated asset for the future human and scientific exploration of space.

Hefner, William Keith↗

NASA NTRS2016

Multifunctional Hybrid Carbon Nanotube/Carbon Fiber Polymer Composites

For aircraft primary structures, carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites possess many advantages over conventional aluminum alloys due to their light weight, higher strengthand stiffness-to-weight ratio, and low life-cycle maintenance costs. However, the relatively low electrical and thermal conductivities of CFRP composites fail to provide structural safety in certain operational conditions such as lightning strikes. Despite several attempts to solve these issues with the addition of carbon nanotubes (CNT) into polymer matrices, and/or by interleaving CNT sheets between conventional carbon fiber (CF) composite layers, there are still interfacial problems that exist between CNTs (or CF) and the resin. In this study, hybrid CNT/CF polymer composites were fabricated by interleaving layers of CNT sheets with Hexcel® IM7/8852 prepreg. Resin concentrations from 1 wt% to 50 wt% were used to infuse the CNT sheets prior to composite fabrication. The interlaminar properties of the resulting hybrid composites were characterized by mode I and II fracture toughness testing (double cantilever beam and end-notched flexure test). Fractographical analysis was performed to study the effect of resin concentration. In addition, multi-directional physical properties like thermal conductivity of the orthotropic hybrid polymer composite were evaluated. Interleaving CNT sheets significantly improved the in-plane (axial and perpendicular direction of CF alignment) thermal conductivity of the hybrid composite laminates by 50 - 400%.

Kang, Jin Ho↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects

Growing demand for hydrogen is exposing the environmental and economic limits of reforming-based and carbon-managed supply chains, while the scale-up of electrolytic capacity remains capital-constrained. Geologic hydrogen, defined as molecular H₂ generated and stored within the Earth's crust offers a complementary, potentially lower-cost resource, yet exploration is still ad hoc. This review (1) revisits a global inventory of confirmed hydrogen seeps and subsurface occurrences; (2) analyzes the controlling reactions, migration pathways, and trapping conditions governing these occurrences; (3) proposes a process-based geologic hydrogen system concept analogous to, yet distinct from, the petroleum system; and (4) evaluates potential geologic hydrogen systems within the United States as a representative case study. Here, we contrast natural systems powered by serpentinization, mantle degassing or radiolysis with anthropogenic systems that stimulate the same reactions or convert in-situ hydrocarbons. Stable hydrogen accumulations require generation rates that outpace combined physical, chemical and microbial losses; the Bourakébougou field (Mali) exemplifies a self-recharging, free-gas reservoir sustained by meteoric-water serpentinization beneath an efficient caprock. Prospective geologic hydrogen resources are likely to occur in regions where iron-rich lithologies, deep-seated faults, and low-permeability sealing formations coexist. Applying this principle, we highlight three promising hydrogen play types in U.S. geological terrains: ophiolite belts (Appalachian and Californian regions), the Midcontinent Rift and the Lake Superior banded‑iron formations. Multiphysics numerical models and positive-unlabeled machine-learning workflows help to accelerate play screening and de-risk future production; yet, reaction kinetics, stimulation strategies, and full techno-economic and life-cycle assessments remain pivotal knowledge gaps.

Anthropogenic hydrogen generation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases.1 Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission.2 Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an Advanced Design Methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of Design of Experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development e ort. In order to t a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of Ground Rules and Assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated \what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are t to the outputs of each environment and are integrated via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any \what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will have the potential to lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Application of Design of Experiments and Surrogate Modeling within the NASA Advanced Concepts Office, Earth-to-Orbit Design Process

Decisions made during early conceptual design have a large impact upon the expected life-cycle cost (LCC) of a new program. It is widely accepted that up to 80% of such cost is committed during these early design phases. Therefore, to help minimize LCC, decisions made during conceptual design must be based upon as much information as possible. To aid in the decision making for new launch vehicle programs, the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides rapid turnaround pre-phase A and phase A concept definition studies. The ACO team utilizes a proven set of tools to provide customers with a full vehicle mass breakdown to tertiary subsystems, preliminary structural sizing based upon worst-case flight loads, and trajectory optimization to quantify integrated vehicle performance for a given mission. Although the team provides rapid turnaround for single vehicle concepts, the scope of the trade space can be limited due to analyst availability and the manpower requirements for manual execution of the analysis tools. In order to enable exploration of a broader design space, the ACO team has implemented an advanced design methods (ADM) based approach. This approach applies the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to more exhaustively explore the trade space and provide the customer with additional design information to inform decision making. This paper will first discuss the automation of the ACO tool set, which represents a majority of the development effort. In order to fit a surrogate model within tolerable error bounds a number of DOE cases are needed. This number will scale with the number of variable parameters desired and the complexity of the system's response to those variables. For all but the smallest design spaces, the number of cases required cannot be produced within an acceptable timeframe using a manual process. Therefore, automation of the tools was a key enabler for the successful application of an ADM approach to an ACO design study. Following the overview of the tool set automation, an example problem will be given to illustrate the implementation of the ADM approach. The example problem will first cover the inclusion of ground rules and assumptions (GR&A) for a study. The GR&A are very important to the study as they determine the constraints within which a trade study can be conducted. These trades must ultimately reconcile with the customer's desired output and any anticipated "what if" questions. The example problem will then illustrate the setup and execution of a DOE through the automated ACO tools. This process is accomplished more efficiently in this work by splitting the tools into two separate environments. The first environment encompasses the structural optimization and mass estimation tools, while the second is focused on trajectory optimization. Surrogate models are fit to the outputs of each environment and are "integrated" via connection of the surrogate equations. Throughout this process, checks are implemented to compare the output of the surrogates to the output of manually run cases to ensure that the error of the final surrogates is at an acceptable level. The conclusion of the example problem demonstrates the utility of the ADM based approach. Using surrogate models gives the ACO team the ability to visualize vehicle sensitivities to various design parameters and identify regions of interest within the design space. The ADM approach can thus be used to inform concept down selection and isolate promising vehicle configurations to be explored in more detail through the manual design process. In addition it provides the customer with an almost instantaneous turnaround on any ''what if" questions that may arise within the bounds of the surrogate model. This approach ultimately expands the ability of the ACO team to provide its customer with broad and rapid turnaround trade studies for launch vehicle conceptual design. The ability to identify a selection of designs which can meet the customer requirements will help ensure lower LCC of launch vehicle designs originating from ACO.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗