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At least 325 records · Page 18

Modeling the effects of carbon payments and forest owner cooperatives on carbon storage and revenue in Pacific Northwest forestlands

The forestlands of the Pacific Northwest store a significant amount of carbon, provide wildlife habitat, generate revenue for forestland owners, and provide for sustainable generation of forest products. Promoting forest carbon storage is increasingly recognized as a key management objective to mitigate climate change. We developed an agent-based model to examine the effectiveness of current land management practices in sustaining forest carbon storage and revenue flows, and the utility of market-based carbon payments in improving carbon storage while also improving revenue generation in the Pacific Northwest. We find that while market based incentives can improve both forest carbon storage and revenue, they are limited in their benefit to small forest owners. Our results highlight the crucial need for additional policy interventions to reduce barriers to market access for small private owners and ensure sustainable forest management in this region. We further show that a forest owners’ cooperative, which aggregates small owners to reduce the costs of participating in a carbon market, can help overcome these barriers and result in both greater carbon storage and a more equitable benefit from carbon payments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of models that differ depending on the immunological properties of the variant. The first one is for the delta variant, where we do not follow the dynamics of the vaccinated individuals since infections of vaccinated individuals were rare. The second one for the far more contagious omicron variant incorporates the evolution of the infections within the vaccinated cohort. We explore comparisons with available data involving two possible classes of counts, fatalities and hospitalizations. We present our results for two regions, Andalusia and Switzerland (including the Principality of Liechtenstein), where the necessary data are available. In the majority of the considered cases, the models are found to yield good agreement with the data and have a reasonable predictive capability beyond their training window, rendering them potentially useful tools for the interpretation of the COVID-19 and further pandemic waves, and for the design of intervention strategies during these waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The temporal onset of associations of cortical proteins with cognitive resilience vary during late life

Background: Cortical proteins associated with cognitive resilience have been identified but their temporal onset in older adults is unknown. We present a multistage approach to first identify cortical proteins associated with cognitive resilience and then examine their associated temporal onset. Methods: We used data from a subset of 1088 decedents from two cohort-studies who had selected reaction monitoring proteomics from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, and at least 3 cognitive assessments. Cognition was assessed using a composite derived from 19 tests. We first used linear mixed-effects models to identify cortical proteins associated with cognitive resilience. We then used functional mixed-effects models to examine non-linear associations between proteins and cognitive resilience to identify their temporal onset. Results: Mean age at death was 90 years (SD = 6.4); 69 % were female. On average, cognition started to decline at around 15 years before death, with accelerated decline in the last 7 years. We identified 40 proteins associated with cognitive resilience, of which 17 proteins also showed non-linear associations. Non-linear associations indicated that higher levels of 10 proteins were associated with slower cognitive decline between 23 and 4 years before death. In contrast, higher levels of 7 proteins were associated with faster decline only within the last 7 years before death. Conclusions: Cognitive resilience proteins are differentially related to late-life cognitive aging; the onset of proteins that maintain cognition may begin many years before the onset of proteins that hasten cognitive decline. The temporal onset of cognitive resilience proteins may be crucial for timing efficacious interventions.

Zammit, Andrea↗

Evaluating direct vessel injection accident-event progression of AP1000 and key figures of merit to support the design and development of water-cooled small modular reactors

The passive safety systems (PSSs) within water-cooled reactors are meticulously engineered to function autonomously, requiring no external power source or manual intervention. They depend exclusively on inherent natural forces and the fundamental principles of reactor physics, such as gravity, natural convection, and phase changes, to manage, alleviate, and avert the release of radioactive materials into the environment during accident scenarios like a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). PSSs are already integrated into such operating commercial reactors as the Advanced Pressurized Reactor-1000 MWe (AP1000) and the Water-Water Energetic Reactor-1200 MWe (WWER-1200) are adopted in most of the upcoming small modular reactor (SMR) designs. Examples of water-cooled SMR PSSs are the passive emergency core-cooling system (ECCS), passive containment cooling system (PCCS), and passive decay-heat removal system, the designs of which vary based on reactor system-design requirements. However, understanding the accident-event progression and phases of a LOCA is pivotal for adopting a specific PSS for a new SMR design. This study covers the accident-event progression for direct vessel injection (DVI) small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SB-LOCA), associated physics phenomena, knowledge gaps, and important figures of merit (FOMs) that may need to be evaluated and assessed to validate thermal-hydraulics models with an available experimental dataset to support new SMR design and development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Performance of the LHCb muon detector in Run 3

In Run 3 of the LHC, the instantaneous luminosity at the LHCb interaction point has been increased by a factor of five, from to $\mathscr{L}$ = 4 x 10 32 cm -2 s -2 to $\mathscr{L}$ = 2 x 10 33 cm -2 s -1 . Several hardware interventions, including a complete overhaul of the readout electronics, have been carried out on the muon detector. The muon identification algorithms in the software trigger were improved with the aim of ensuring Run 2 performance under a higher particle rate. The operation and calibration of the upgraded muon detector are presented. The muon detection efficiency and muon identification performance are evaluated on data calibration samples collected during the year 2024. A muon identification efficiency above 90% with sub-percent hadron misidentification probability is achieved by exploiting the pattern of hits in the muon detector.

Gaseous detectors↗

A framework to implement human reliability analysis during early design stages of advanced reactors

Nuclear power plants require human actions throughout their lifecycle from design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. However, for advanced reactors (e.g., Generation IV), the reliance on human intervention in safety-related actions is expected to be reduced or completely replaced by automated actions. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Standard for Advanced Non-LWR Nuclear Power Plants requires that the impacts of all operator actions are captured and incorporated in the risk of the modeled plant. Moreover, the Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing Advanced Reactors requires human reliability analysis (HRA) to be included throughout all design and PRA development stages. However, due to the lack of details during the early design stages, HRA is often postponed until the design is mature enough. Conducting HRA in later design stages, though it may be adequate in capturing pre-, at-, and post-initiators comes short of informing the design itself in the iterative design lifecycle. Hence, this paper presents a framework to include HRA during the design's early stages, pre-conceptual or conceptual. The proposed framework provides a process for the removal of operator actions that do not contribute to the risk and the identification of all key operator actions that are critical to the safety of the design. The results of this framework are then used to inform the design of those safety-related operator actions to update the design further. Then, using information from the updated design, this framework can be reapplied to investigate the impact of the design update on human reliability. The PRA model of the X-energy's pre-conceptual Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor (HTGR-PB) design is used to demonstrate the approach. In the pre-conceptual Xe-100 PRA model, also called Phase 0 PRA model, human actions were considered an integral part of analyzing the plant response to different initiating events. Hence, in this paper, all possible human actions in the Xe-100 PRA model are identified, analyzed, and removed to emulate a design relying only on the available automated control systems. The preliminary results of this assessment show how safe the Xe-100 design is even without crediting any human actions. The results also list necessary sequences in which operator actions are critical to the risk profile of the design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Accident event progression, gaps, and key performance indicators for steam generator tube rupture events in water-cooled SMRs: A review

According to historical records of reactor-related incidents, a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is one of the most common occurrences at operating pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Such design-basis accidents (DBAs) could lead to a direct path for radionuclides to be released to the atmosphere via the safety and relief valves, making assessments of radionuclide discharge from operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) into the environment crucial for ensuring safety. In such analyses, the primary focus has been on the extent of radioactive release, not the potential damage to the core. Moreover, significant and timely intervention by operators is needed during the initial stages of SGTRs in order to avert overfilling of the SGs, as well as to restrict the dissemination of radioactive materials. Determining the event sequence and phases that occur during an SGTR incident in an advanced passive (e.g., AP1000) water-cooled nuclear reactor is crucial for implementing effective passive safety systems (PSSs) for a specific water-cooled small modular reactor (SMR) design. Here this study provides a comprehensive review of the accident event progression, associated physical phenomena, knowledge gaps, and key performance indicators that must be evaluated and assessed in thermal-hydraulics models, based on relevant test data, respectively.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Characterization factors and other air quality impact metrics: Case study for PM 2.5 -emitting area sources from biofuel feedstock supply

In this paper, we develop a framework and metrics for estimating the impact of emission sources on regulatory compliance and human health for applications in air quality planning and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Our framework is based on a pollutant's characterization factor (CF) and three new metrics: Available Regulatory Capacity for Incremental Emissions (ARCIE), Source CF Ratio, and Activity Health Impact (AHI) Ratio. ARCIE can be used to assess whether a receptor location has capacity to accommodate additional source emissions while complying with regulatory limits. We present CF as a midpoint indicator of health impacts per unit mass of emitted pollutant. Source CF Ratio enables comparison of potential new-source locations based on human health impacts. The AHI Ratio estimates the health impacts of a pollutant in relation to the utilization of the source for each unit of product or service. These metrics can be applied to any pollutant, energy source sector (e.g., agriculture, electricity), source type (point, line, area), and spatial modeling domain (nation, state, city, region). We demonstrate these metrics through a case study of fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) emissions from U.S. corn stover harvesting and local processing at various scales, representing steps in the biofuel production process. We model PM 2.5 formation in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity chemical transport model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). Through this case study, we present the first area-source PM 2.5 CFs that address the recommendations of several LCIA studies to establish spatially explicit CFs specific to an energy source sector or type. Overall, the framework developed in this work provides multiple new ways to consider the potential impacts of air emissions through spatially differentiated metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mapping heat vulnerability in cities: A tale of two california cities

Extreme heat is a major cause of weather-related deaths in the United States. To address this, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) is crucial for assessing heat risk and identifying vulnerable urban areas and populations, supporting city planning and emergency response. Current HVI studies often use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on environmental, socioeconomic, and medical data to aggregate vulnerability indicators into a single index. However, these fixed aggregation weights struggle to adapt to different use cases, which may require varying focuses. Moreover, existing tools primarily consider outdoor heat exposure, providing an incomplete picture of actual exposure, as people spend most of their time indoors. Our research introduces an HVI web mapping tool that addresses these gaps in the literature by: (1) allowing flexible weights to adapt to different use cases, and (2) uniquely integrating both outdoor and indoor heat exposure by considering building characteristics for a more comprehensive risk assessment. We demonstrated this tool in two California cities with contrasting climates: Fresno (inland, arid, hot summers) and Oakland (temperate coastal). This HVI mapping tool provides essential decision support for policymakers and stakeholders in both short-term heat mitigation and long-term urban planning for building interventions and infrastructure development.

BES↗

Overcoming significant challenges in extracting off-stoichiometric thermodynamics using the compound energy formalism through complementary use of experimental and first principles data: A case study of Ba 1-x Sr x FeO 3-δ

The compound energy formalism (CEF) is a powerful framework to describe the thermodynamics of metal oxides as a function of off-stoichiometry, temperature, and composition. The thermodynamic properties are crucial materials design attributes in metal oxide-based oxygen-exchange chemical processes. Despite the richness of information an accurate CEF model provides, a method to determine a unique and accurate fit for oxygen exchange materials remains elusive. This contribution details a method for fitting the CEF model that overcomes the current fitting challenges through three innovations: 1) the combination of density functional theory calculations with experimental data decorrelates excess terms and delineates the enthalpic/entropic contributions to the Gibbs free energy; 2) a systematic determination of the important CEF model terms, removing thermodynamic predetermining human intervention; 3) a self-consistent solution of the starting oxygen offstoichiometry (δ 0 ) of thermogravimetric measurements. Thus, our method enables the reliable extraction of off-stoichiometric metal oxide thermodynamic properties and facilitates rapid materials compositional screening, and reliable process design of systems dependent on off-stoichiometric redox-active metal oxides. We apply this method to a Ba x Sr 1-x FeO 3-δ test case. We find by systematically examining the performance of the CEF model fit with and without each innovation that all three innovations are necessary for an accurate fit. We determined that reduction enthalpy is higher and more sensitive to off-stoichiometry when the Sr fraction is large (139.5 and 185.3 kJ/mol O 2 for SrFeO 3 at δ = 0 and δ = 0.5, respectively vs. nearly constant 83 kJ/mol O 2 for BaFeO 3 ). However, the reduction entropy is mostly insensitive to Sr fraction, but highly dependent on δ suggesting larger contributions in the non-configurational entropy parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Benzo[$\mathcal{a}$]pyrene toxicokinetics in humans following dietary supplementation with 3,3'-diindolylmethane (DIM) or Brussels sprouts

Utilizing the atto-zeptomole sensitivity of UPLC-accelerator mass spectrometry (UPLC-AMS), we previously demonstrated significant first-pass metabolism following escalating (25–250 ng) oral micro-dosing in humans of [ 14 C]-benzo[a]pyrene ([ 14 C]-BaP). The present study examines the potential for supplementation with Brussels sprouts (BS) or 3,3' -diindolylmethane (DIM) to alter plasma levels of [ 14 C]-BaP and metabolites over a 48-h period following micro-dosing with 50 ng (5.4 nCi) [ 14 C]-BaP. Volunteers were dosed with [ 14 C]-BaP following fourteen days on a cruciferous vegetable restricted diet, or the same diet supplemented for seven days with 50 g of BS or 300 mg of BR-DIM ® prior to dosing. BS or DIM reduced total [ 14 C] recovered from plasma by 56–67% relative to nonintervention. Dietary supplementation with DIM markedly increased T max and reduced C max for [ 14 C]-BaP indicative of slower absorption. Further, both dietary treatments significantly reduced C max values of four downstream BaP metabolites, consistent with delaying BaP absorption. Dietary treatments also appeared to reduce the T 1/2 and the plasma AUC( 0,$\infty$ ) for Unknown Metabolite C, indicating some effect in accelerating clearance of this metabolite. Toxicokinetic constants for other metabolites followed the pattern for [ 14 C]-BaP (metabolite profiles remained relatively consistent) and non-compartmental analysis did not indicate other significant alterations. Significant amounts of metabolites in plasma were at the bay region of [ 14 C]-BaP irrespective of treatment. Although the number of subjects and large interindividual variation are limitations of this study, it represents the first human trial showing dietary intervention altering toxicokinetics of a defined dose of a known human carcinogen.

3,3'-diindolylmethane↗

Strategies to mitigate urban heat: Effects on overheating and cloud formation

This study evaluates the effectiveness of various urban heat island (UHI) overheating mitigation strategies and their associated impacts on urban cloud dynamics and thermal processes. This study shows cloud-resolving and urban-resolving modeling results estimating the impact of Houston-Galveston heat mitigation scenarios and other resilient strategies contemplated in the Climate Adaptation Plan and Resilient Houston reports. The simulated scenarios include high intensity green rooftops, rooftop photovoltaic solar panels, enhanced urban irrigation, white/cool roofs and roads, and street trees. We contrast the adaptation scenarios against a present baseline case, a no city scenario and a larger and denser city as projected by the Houston-Galveston Area Council for 2045. During the daytime, cooling strategies such as cool roofs, cool roads, and green roofs exhibit superior performance in mitigating urban overheating. At night, enhanced urban irrigation emerges as the most effective cooling intervention. Cooling strategies significantly reduce sensible heat flux partitioning during the day, a process that reduces the uplift of air, suppressing the formation of urban shallow cumulus clouds. The extent of urban cloud mixing ratio is reduced in proportion to the decrease in sensible heating. Under the BEP-Tree scenario, which includes wind effects and evapotranspiration driven by a stomatal conductance model, urban trees demonstrated negligible environmental cooling effects and minimal urban cloud modifications. In contrast, the scenarios with more urban cooling and higher latent heat fluxes led to suppressed urban clouds. The net cooling effect achieved by the heat mitigation strategies is influenced by a combination of indirect processes, including the reduction of downwelling longwave radiation flux, due to reduced cloud presence, while some warming is attributed to a modest increase in shortwave radiation that offsets the cooling benefit. Additionally, reduced heat dissipation, weakened thermal gradients, and diminished vertical mixing over urban areas further moderate the cooling potential. These findings highlight the pivotal role of clouds and moist atmospheric processes in shaping the UHI effect and offer insights for designing more effective urban cooling strategies.

albedo changes↗

Adaptation of metabolism to multicellular aggregation, hypoxia and obese stromal cell incorporation as potential measure of survival of ovarian metastases

Ovarian metastases exfoliate from the primary tumor and it is thought that aggregation supports their survival in the peritoneal cavity during dissemination but the underlying mechanisms are not clearly identified. We have previously shown that ovarian cancer cells acquire an increasingly glycolytic and metabolic flexible phenotype during progression. In the present study, we investigated how hypoxia, aggregation, and the incorporation of the obese stromal vascular fraction (SVF) affect cellular metabolism and the response to common anti-cancer and anti-diabetic drugs. Our results show a reduction of glucose uptake, lactate secretion, cellular respiration and ATP synthesis in response to hypoxia and aggregation, suggesting that the observed reduced proliferation of cells aggregated into spheroids is the result of a down-regulation of respiration. Recruitment of SVF to spheroids increased the spheroids invasive capacity but reduced respiration only in the most aggressive cells. Further, aggregation and hypoxia reduced the response to the metabolic drugs AICAR and metformin, and the chemotherapeutic agents cisplatin and paclitaxel. Our results suggest that the adaptation of cellular metabolism may contribute to enhanced survival under non-permissive conditions, and that these metabolic alterations may provide targets for future interventions that aim to enhance the survival of women with metastatic ovarian cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

J-domain proteins interaction with neurodegenerative disease-related proteins

HSP70 chaperones, J-domain proteins (JDPs) and nucleotide exchange factors (NEF) form functional networks that have the ability to prevent and reverse the aggregation of proteins associated with neurodegenerative diseases. JDPs can interact with specific substrate proteins, hold them in a refolding-competent conformation and target them to specific HSP70 chaperones for remodeling. Thereby, JDPs select specific substrates and constitute an attractive target for pharmacological intervention of neurodegenerative diseases. This, under the condition that the exact mechanism of JDPs interaction with specific substrates is unveiled. In this review, we provide an overview of the structural and functional variety of JDPs that interact with neurodegenerative disease-associated proteins and we highlight those studies that identified specific residues, domains or regions of JDPs that are crucial for substrate binding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Balancing DNA repair to prevent ageing and cancer

DNA damage is a constant stressor to the cell. Persistent damage to the DNA over time results in an increased risk of mutation and an accumulation of mutations with age. Loss of efficient DNA damage repair can lead to accelerated ageing phenotypes or an increased cancer risk, and the trade-off between cancer susceptibility and longevity is often driven by the cell's response to DNA damage. High levels of mutations in DNA repair mutants often leads to excessive cell death and stem cell exhaustion which may promote premature ageing. Stem cells themselves have distinct characteristics that enable them to retain low mutation rates. However, when mutations do arise, stem cell clonal expansion can also contribute to age-related tissue dysfunction as well as heightened cancer risk. In this review, we will highlight increasing DNA damage and mutation accumulation as hallmarks common to both ageing and cancer. We will propose that anti-ageing interventions might be cancer preventative and discuss the mechanisms through which they may act.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Neurons die with heightened but functional macro- and chaperone mediated autophagy upon increased amyloid-ß induced toxicity with region-specific protection in prolonged intermittent fasting

Highlights: • Macroautophagy (MA) is strongly engaged upon APP overexpression and remains high over time. • APP colocalization with macroautophagy components remains increased until late, promoting continuous recruitment to the autophagy machinery. • Robust chaperone-mediated autophagy (CMA) engagement is observed in late APP overexpression. • Macroautophagic flux during APP overexpression is preserved, even at late time points, suggesting functional autophagy in the face of apoptosis onset. • Macroautophagy impairment increases markers of amyloidogenesis and further exacerbates the onset of apoptotic cell death. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a devastating neurodegenerative condition with significant socio-economic impact that is exacerbated by the rapid increase in population aging, particularly impacting already burdened health care systems of poorly resourced countries. Accumulation of the amyloid-β (Aβ) peptide, generated through amyloid precursor protein (APP) processing, manifesting in senile plaques, is a well-established neuropathological feature. Aβ plays a key role in driving synaptic dysfunction, neuronal cell loss, glial cell activation and oxidative stress associated with the pathogenesis of AD. Thus, the enhanced clearance of Aβ peptide though modulation of the mechanisms that regulate intracellular Aβ metabolism and clearance during AD progression have received major attention. Autophagy, a lysosome-based major proteolytic pathway, plays a crucial role in intracellular protein quality control and has been shown to contribute to the clearance of Aβ peptide. However, to what extent autophagy activity remains upregulated and functional in the process of increasing Aβ neurotoxicity is largely unclear. Here, we investigated the extent of neuronal toxicity in vitro by characterising autophagic flux, the expression profile of key amyloidogenic proteins, and proteins associated with prominent subtypes of the autophagy pathway to dissect the interplay between the engagement of proteolytic pathways and cell death onset in the context of APP overexpression. Moreover, we assessed the neuroprotective effects of a caloric restriction regime in vivo on the modulation of autophagy in specific brain regions. Our results reveal that autophagy is upregulated in the presence of high levels of APP and Aβ and remains heightened and functional despite concomitant apoptosis induction, suggestive of a mismatch between autophagy cargo generation and clearance capacity. These findings were confirmed when implementing a prolonged intermittent fasting (IF) intervention in a model of paraquat-induced neuronal toxicity, where markers of autophagic activity were increased, while apoptosis onset and lipid peroxidation were robustly decreased in brain regions associated with neurodegeneration. This work highlights that especially caloric restriction mimetics and controlled prolonged IF may indeed be a highly promising therapeutic strategy at all stages of AD-associated pathology progression, for a cell-inherent and cell specific augmentation of Aβ clearance through the powerful engagement of autophagy and thereby robustly contributing to neuronal protection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Adaptive laboratory evolution and genetic engineering improved terephthalate utilization in Pseudomonas putida KT2440

Poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is one of the most ubiquitous plastics and can be depolymerized through biological and chemo-catalytic routes to its constituent monomers, terephthalic acid (TPA) and ethylene glycol (EG). TPA and EG can be re-synthesized into PET for closed-loop recycling or microbially converted into higher-value products for open-loop recycling. Here, in this study, we expand on our previous efforts engineering and applying Pseudomonas putida KT2440 for PET conversion by employing adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) to improve TPA catabolism. Three P. putida strains with varying degrees of metabolic engineering for EG catabolism underwent an automation-enabled ALE campaign on TPA, a TPA and EG mixture, and glucose as a control. ALE increased the growth rate on TPA and TPA-EG mixtures by 4.1- and 3.5-fold, respectively, in approximately 350 generations. Evolved isolates were collected at the midpoints and endpoints of 39 independent ALE experiments, and growth rates were increased by 0.15 and 0.20 h -1 on TPA and a TPA-EG, respectively, in the best performing isolates. Whole-genome re-sequencing identified multiple converged mutations, including loss-of-function mutations to global regulators gacS, gacA, and turA along with large duplication and intergenic deletion events that impacted the heterologously-expressed tphAB II catabolic genes. Reverse engineering of these targets confirmed causality, and a strain with all three regulators deleted and second copies of tphAB II and tpaK displayed improved TPA utilization compared to the base strain. Taken together, an iterative strain engineering process involving heterologous pathway engineering, ALE, whole genome sequencing, and genome editing identified five genetic interventions that improve P. putida growth on TPA, aimed at developing enhanced whole-cell biocatalysts for PET upcycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Toward data assimilation of ship-induced aerosol–cloud interactions

Satellite imagery can detect temporary cloud trails or ship tracks formed from aerosols emitted from large ships traversing our oceans, a phenomenon that global climate models cannot directly reproduce. Ship tracks are observable examples of marine cloud brightening, a potential solar climate intervention that shows promise in helping combat climate change. In this paper, we demonstrate a simulation-based approach in learning the behavior of ship tracks based upon a novel stochastic emulation mechanism. Our method uses wind fields to determine the movement of aerosol–cloud tracks and uses a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) to model their persistence behavior. This SPDE incorporates both a drift and diffusion term which describes the movement of aerosol particles via wind and their diffusivity through the atmosphere, respectively. We first present our proposed approach with examples using simulated wind fields and ship paths. We then successfully demonstrate our tool by applying the approximate Bayesian computation method-sequential Monte Carlo for data assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗