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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

Combined Data and Deep Learning Model Uncertainties: An Application to the Measurement of Solid Fuel Regression Rate

In complex physical process characterization, such as the measurement of the regression rate for solid hybrid rocket fuels, where both the observation data and the model used have uncertainties originating from multiple sources, combining these in a systematic way for quantities of interest (QoI) remains a challenge. In this paper, we present a forward propagation uncertainty quantification (UQ) process to produce a probabilistic distribution for the observed regression rate r. We characterized two input data uncertainty sources from the experiment (the distortion from the camera U c and the non-zero-angle fuel placement U Y ), the prediction and model form uncertainty from the deep neural network (U m ), as well as the variability from the manually segmented images used for training it (U s ). Here, we conducted seven case studies on combinations of these uncertainty sources with the model form uncertainty. The main contribution of this paper is the investigation and inclusion of the experimental image data uncertainties involved, and how to include them in a workflow when the QoI is the result of multiple sequential processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Disentangling Electronic Transport and Hysteresis at Individual Grain Boundaries in Hybrid Perovskites via Automated Scanning Probe Microscopy

Underlying the rapidly increasing photovoltaic efficiency and stability of metal halide perovskites (MHPs) is the advancement in the understanding of the microstructure of polycrystalline MHP thin film. Over the past decade, intense efforts have been aimed at understanding the effect of microstructures on MHP properties, including chemical heterogeneity, strain disorder, phase impurity, etc. It has been found that grain and grain boundary (GB) are tightly related to lots of microscale and nanoscale behavior in MHP thin films. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) is widely used to observe grain and boundary structures in topography and subsequently to study the correlative surface potential and conductivity of these structures. For now, most AFM measurements have been performed in imaging mode to study the static behavior; in contrast, AFM spectroscopy mode allows us to investigate the dynamic behavior of materials, e.g., conductivity under sweeping voltage. However, a major limitation of AFM spectroscopy measurements is that they require manual operation by human operators, and as such only limited data can be obtained, hindering systematic investigations of these microstructures. Here, we designed a workflow combining the conductive AFM measurement with a machine learning (ML) algorithm to systematically investigate grain boundaries in MHPs. The trained ML model can extract GBs locations from the topography image, and the workflow drives the AFM probe to each GB location to perform a current–voltage (IV) curve automatically. Then, we are able to have IV curves at all GB locations, allowing us to systematically understand the property of GBs. Using this method, we discovered that the GB junction points are less conductive, potentially more photoactive, and can play critical roles in MHP stability, while most previous works only focused on the difference between GB and grains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques

Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Representation Learning via Quantum Neural Tangent Kernels

Variational quantum circuits are used in quantum machine learning and variational quantum simulation tasks. Designing good variational circuits or predicting how well they perform for given learning or optimization tasks is still unclear. Here we discuss these problems, analyzing variational quantum circuits using the theory of neural tangent kernels. We define quantum neural tangent kernels, and derive dynamical equations for their associated loss function in optimization and learning tasks. We analytically solve the dynamics in the frozen limit, or lazy training regime, where variational angles change slowly and a linear perturbation is good enough. We extend the analysis to a dynamical setting, including quadratic corrections in the variational angles. We then consider a hybrid quantum classical architecture and define a large-width limit for hybrid kernels, showing that a hybrid quantum classical neural network can be approximately Gaussian. The results presented here show limits for which analytical understandings of the training dynamics for variational quantum circuits, used for quantum machine learning and optimization problems, are possible. These analytical results are supported by numerical simulations of quantum machine-learning experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Integration of Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) Systems Optimized with Second-Generation, High-Temperature Superconducting (2G-HTS) Technology with a Major Fossil-Fueled Asset

Utility companies and fossil fueled generation assets are seeking combinations of “hybrid energy storage” to allow power to be provided in advance of, and to otherwise complement, peaking natural gas-fired generation. American Maglev Technology of Florida Inc. (AMT) learned during the Phase I program based on interactions with NRG Energy (NRG) that energy storage such as superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) can qualify as a Black Start unit in most markets, ensuring orderly re-start of grid operations and fossil fueled power plants and serving as an important asset of hybrid energy storage technology. In conjunction with the University of Houston (UH), AMT and NRG are working together to scale up low-cost, high- efficiency, second-generation high-temperature superconducting (2G-HTS) technology for deployment across several markets, with a primary focus on the commercial development of utility grid-scale SMES (g-SMES) systems. Ultimately the program confirmed that the novel g-SMES design can meet the performance and financial requirements of the fossil power plant industry, while exhibiting continuous grid-voltage regulation; cost-effective, peak-hour energy storage with almost infinite life; increased input/output efficiency; and the capability to undergo millions of charging cycles, without degradation, representing a significant improvement over lithium ion and other conventional storage technologies. We believe wide scale deployment of this technology is feasible and practical when compared to the higher life cycle cost and relatively short lifespan of chemical batteries. Based on these findings, the future for deployment of SMES at many fossil-fueled power plants exceeding 100MW capability is bright. Further de-risking g-SMES technology would pave the way for the construction of a subscale prototype. Eventually, scaled-down versions of SMES are expected to be competitive with the multi-billion-dollar lithium-ion market for a wide range of commercial, industrial, and transportation uses. There is long-term potential for commercialization and widespread deployment of this disruptive technology, which would spawn a new worldwide supply chain and create domestic, high-tech manufacturing jobs in the green industry.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Scalable Hybrid Classification-Regression Solution for High-Frequency Nonintrusive Load Monitoring

Residential buildings with the ability to monitor and control their net-load (sum of load and generation) can provide valuable flexibility to power grid operators. We present a novel multiclass nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) approach that enables effective net-load monitoring capabilities at high-frequency with minimal additional equipment and cost. The proposed machine learning based solution provides accurate multiclass state predictions while operating at a faster timescale (able to provide a prediction for each 60- Hz ac cycle used in US power grid) without relying on event-detection techniques. We also introduce an innovative hybrid classification-regression method that allows for the prediction of not only load on/off states but also individual load operating power levels. A test bed with eight residential appliances is used for validating the NILM approach. Results show that the overall method has high accuracy, good scaling and generalization properties.

feature extraction↗

DeepPhenoMem V1.0: deep learning modelling of canopy greenness dynamics accounting for multi-variate meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology

Abstract. Vegetation phenology plays a key role in controlling the seasonality of ecosystem processes that modulate carbon, water and energy fluxes between the biosphere and atmosphere. Accurate modelling of vegetation phenology in the interplay of Earth's surface and the atmosphere is thus crucial to understand how the coupled system will respond to and shape climatic changes. Phenology is controlled by meteorological conditions at different timescales: on the one hand, changes in key meteorological variables (temperature, water, radiation) can have immediate effects on the vegetation development; on the other hand, phenological changes can be driven by past environmental conditions, known as memory effects. However, the processes governing meteorological memory effects on phenology are not completely understood, resulting in their limited performance of vegetation phenology represented in land surface models. A deep learning model, specifically a long short-term memory network (LSTM), has the potential to capture and model the meteorological memory effects on vegetation phenology. Here, we apply the LSTM to model the vegetation phenology using meteorological drivers and high-temporal-resolution canopy greenness observations through digital repeat photography by the PhenoCam network. We compare a multiple linear regression model, a no-memory-effect LSTM model and a full-memory-effect LSTM model to predict the whole seasonal greenness trajectory and the corresponding phenological transition dates across 50 sites and 317 site years during 2009–2018, covering deciduous broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands. Results show that the deep learning model outperforms the multiple linear regression model, and the full-memory-effect LSTM model performs better than the no-memory-effect model for all three plant function types (median R2 of 0.878, 0.957 and 0.955 for broadleaf forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and grasslands). We also find that the full-memory-effect LSTM model is capable of predicting the seasonal dynamic variations of canopy greenness and reproducing trends in shifting phenological transition dates. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the full-memory-effect LSTM model to assess its plausibility, revealing its coherence with established knowledge of vegetation phenology sensitivity to meteorological conditions, particularly changes in temperature. Our study highlights that (1) multi-variate meteorological memory effects play a crucial role in vegetation phenology, and (2) deep learning opens up new avenues for improving the representation of vegetation phenological processes in land surface models via a hybrid modelling approach.

Geology↗

Artificial-intelligence-assisted analysis of 28 Si * → 7⁢𝛼 breakup data

Mid-weight 𝛼-conjugate nuclei are predicted to possess exotic toroid like resonances with high angular momenta. The search for these states in 28 Si* is the main point of two published experimental investigations of the peripheral 28 Si + 12 C reaction by Cao and collaborators and by Hannaman and collaborators. In this work, we develop a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based machine learning method utilizing the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to analyze available experimental and theoretical data. Here, we additionally study the reaction with the Hybrid 𝛼-Cluster (H⁡𝛼⁢C) model. In all the examined data, our results suggest the presence of underlying structure which is close to that predicted for toroidal states.

Breakup reactions↗

Examining polymer‐protein biophysical interactions with small‐angle x‐ray scattering and quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation

Abstract Polymer‐protein hybrids can be deployed to improve protein solubility and stability in denaturing environments. While previous work used robotics and active machine learning to inform new designs, further biophysical information is required to ascertain structure–function behavior. Here, we show the value of tandem small‐angle x‐ray scattering (SAXS) and quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCMD) experiments to reveal detailed polymer‐protein interactions with horseradish peroxidase (HRP) as a test case. Of particular interest was the process of polymer‐protein complex formation under thermal stress whereby SAXS monitors formation in solution while QCMD follows these dynamics at an interface. The radius of gyration ( R g ) of the protein as measured by SAXS does not change significantly in the presence of polymer under denaturing conditions, but thickness and dissipation changes were observed in QCMD data. SAXS data with and without thermal stress were utilized to create bead models of the potential complexes and denatured enzyme, and each model fit provided insight into the degree of interactions. Additionally, QCMD data demonstrated that HRP deforms by spreading upon surface adsorption at low concentration as shown by longer adsorption times and smaller frequency shifts. In contrast, thermally stressed and highly inactive HRP had faster adsorption kinetics. The combination of SAXS and QCMD serves as a framework for biophysical characterization of interactions between proteins and polymers which could be useful in designing polymer‐protein hybrids.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Semisupervised Learning for Seismic Monitoring Applications

The impressive performance that deep neural networks demonstrate on a range of seismic monitoring tasks depends largely on the availability of event catalogs that have been manually curated over many years or decades. However, the quality, duration, and availability of seismic event catalogs vary significantly across the range of monitoring operations, regions, and objectives. Semisupervised learning (SSL) enables learning from both labeled and unlabeled data and provides a framework to leverage the abundance of unreviewed seismic data for training deep neural networks on a variety of target tasks. We apply two SSL algorithms (mean-teacher and virtual adversarial training) as well as a novel hybrid technique (exponential average adversarial training) to seismic event classification to examine how unlabeled data with SSL can enhance model performance. In general, we find that SSL can perform as well as supervised learning with fewer labels. We also observe in some scenarios that almost half of the benefits of SSL are the result of the meaningful regularization enforced through SSL techniques and may not be attributable to unlabeled data directly. Lastly, the benefits from unlabeled data scale with the difficulty of the predictive task when we evaluate the use of unlabeled data to characterize sources in new geographic regions. Finally, in geographic areas where supervised model performance is low, SSL significantly increases the accuracy of source-type classification using unlabeled data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting band gaps and band-edge positions of oxide perovskites using density functional theory and machine learning

Density functional theory (DFT) within the local or semilocal density approximations, i.e., the local density approximation (LDA) or generalized gradient approximation (GGA), has become a workhorse in the electronic structure theory of solids, being extremely fast and reliable for energetics and structural properties, yet remaining highly inaccurate for predicting band gaps of semiconductors and insulators. The accurate prediction of band gaps using first-principles methods is time consuming, requiring hybrid functionals, quasiparticle GW, or quantum Monte Carlo methods. Efficiently correcting DFT-LDA/GGA band gaps and unveiling the main chemical and structural factors involved in this correction is desirable for discovering novel materials in high-throughput calculations. In this direction, we, in this study, use DFT and machine learning techniques to correct band gaps and band-edge positions of a representative subset of ABO 3 perovskite oxides. Relying on the results of HSE06 hybrid functional calculations as target values of band gaps, we find a systematic band-gap correction of ~1.5 eV for this class of materials, where ~1 eV comes from downward shifting the valence band and ~0.5 eV from uplifting the conduction band. The main chemical and structural factors determining the band-gap correction are determined through a feature selection procedure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Leveraging operator learning to accelerate convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient method

We propose a new deflation strategy to accelerate the convergence of the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method for solving parametric large-scale linear systems of equations. Unlike traditional deflation techniques that rely on eigenvector approximations or recycled Krylov subspaces, we generate the deflation subspaces using operator learning, specifically the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet). To this aim, we introduce two complementary approaches for assembling the deflation operators. The first approach approximates near-null space vectors of the discrete PDE operator using the basis functions learned by the DeepONet. The second approach directly leverages solutions predicted by the DeepONet. To further enhance convergence, we also propose several strategies for prescribing the sparsity pattern of the deflation operator. Here, a comprehensive set of numerical experiments encompassing steady-state, time-dependent, scalar, and vector-valued problems posed on both structured and unstructured geometries is presented and demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed DeepONet-based deflated PCG method, as well as its generalization across a wide range of model parameters and problem resolutions.

Deflation↗

Quantum machine learning with differential privacy

Abstract Quantum machine learning (QML) can complement the growing trend of using learned models for a myriad of classification tasks, from image recognition to natural speech processing. There exists the potential for a quantum advantage due to the intractability of quantum operations on a classical computer. Many datasets used in machine learning are crowd sourced or contain some private information, but to the best of our knowledge, no current QML models are equipped with privacy-preserving features. This raises concerns as it is paramount that models do not expose sensitive information. Thus, privacy-preserving algorithms need to be implemented with QML. One solution is to make the machine learning algorithm differentially private, meaning the effect of a single data point on the training dataset is minimized. Differentially private machine learning models have been investigated, but differential privacy has not been thoroughly studied in the context of QML. In this study, we develop a hybrid quantum-classical model that is trained to preserve privacy using differentially private optimization algorithm. This marks the first proof-of-principle demonstration of privacy-preserving QML. The experiments demonstrate that differentially private QML can protect user-sensitive information without signficiantly diminishing model accuracy. Although the quantum model is simulated and tested on a classical computer, it demonstrates potential to be efficiently implemented on near-term quantum devices [noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ)]. The approach’s success is illustrated via the classification of spatially classed two-dimensional datasets and a binary MNIST classification. This implementation of privacy-preserving QML will ensure confidentiality and accurate learning on NISQ technology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Domain-aware Control-oriented Neural Models for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles

Conventional physics-based modeling is a time-consuming bottleneck in control design for complex nonlinear systems like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). In contrast, purely data-driven models, require a large number of observations and lack operational guarantees for safety-critical systems. Data-driven models leveraging available partially characterized dynamics have potential to provide reliable systems models in a typical data-limited scenario for high value complex systems, thereby avoiding months of expensive expert modeling time. In this work we explore this middle-ground between expert-modeled and pure data-driven modeling. We present control-oriented parametric models with varying levels of domain-awareness that exploit known system structure and prior physics knowledge to create constrained deep neural dynamical system models. We employ universal differential equations to construct data-driven blackbox and graybox representations of the AUV dynamics. In addition, we explore a hybrid formulation that explicitly models the residual error related to imperfect graybox models. We compare the prediction performance of the learned models for different distributions of initial conditions and control inputs to assess their suitability for control.

Shaw Cortez, Wenceslao E.↗

Hybrid Recurrent Neural Network Modeling for Traffic Delay Prediction at Signalized Intersections Along an Urban Arterial

This paper studies the traffic delay prediction modeling for multiple signalized intersections along the Ala Moana Boulevard and Nimitz Highway in Hawaii. Several machine learning (ML) based approaches have been studied in the literature, and most of them focused on prediction accuracy rather than the end use of real-time control and implementation. These ML models tend to be very complex and non-linear in nature, making it challenging to achieve fast inferences and are computationally heavy for real-time signal control implementation. As such, in this paper, a simple yet accurate hybrid modeling method is proposed to predict traffic delay one-step ahead with the model made suitable for real-time implementation to control traffic flow. Since real-time road-side measurements are recorded in unstructured form, the paper also discusses other issues related to data extraction and the pre-processing process. Finally, a simple signal control loop is developed to demonstrate the proposed modeling approach, which has shown advantages in model accuracy and computation efficiency compared against several existing modeling methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decoding diffraction and spectroscopy data with machine learning: A tutorial

This Tutorial provides a step-by-step guide on how to apply supervised machine-learning techniques to analyze diffraction and spectroscopy data. This Tutorial details four models—a reconstruction-focused model, a regression-focused model, a hybrid reconstruction/regression model, and a multimodal model—that use x-ray diffraction profiles and vibrational density of states spectra to predict various microstructural descriptors. In this Tutorial, we cover data pre-processing steps, constructions of the models via dimensionality reduction and regression, training, and analysis of these models. Comparisons of the model’s performance are provided, highlighting the strength and weakness of the various approaches utilized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An analysis of physics limited dispatch of nuclear renewable integrated energy systems using deep reinforcement learning and dynamic modeling

Previous approaches to dispatching nuclear integrated energy systems (NIES) have focused on the profitability and flexibility of these systems to operate on energy grids with highly variable pricing. However, due to the complexity involved in modeling and designing these systems, there has been less emphasis on ensuring that these dispatch strategies are physically achievable. It is imperative to develop methods that allow the system to remain within the desired NIES operating conditions and perform this based on realistic limited forecasted information. This research employs next generation artificial intelligence, namely deep reinforcement learning (DRL), and a dynamic system model written in Modelica to find a safe and profitable dispatch strategy for a solar nuclear hybrid design. The DRL agent is shown to find a novel dispatch strategy that manages both power ramping and power levels while respecting operational limits. This DRL-based dispatch is compared to other dispatching strategies including an optimal design solution from mixed integer linear programming (MILP). It is found that incorporating the physics of such a tightly coupled NIES limits the profitability of the MILP-based dispatch strategy. As a result, the MILP solution overestimates the design’s generated revenue. In contrast, DRL significantly reduces the number of breaches of safe operational conditions during energy arbitrage while maintaining profitability. Furthermore, this work paves the way for a more detailed assessment of NIES profitability and could be used to aid operator decisions on future NIES projects.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗