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NASA NTRS1987

Predictability in the extended range

This paper describes the results of extended range predictability experiments using an efficient two-level spherical quasi-geostrophic model. The experiments have an initial rms doubling time of about two days. This growth rate, along with an initial error of about one-half the initial error of present operational models, produces an rms error equal to the climatological rms error and a correlation of 0.5 on about day 12 of the forecast. On the largest scales, this limiting point is reached shortly thereafter. The error continues to grow at a decreasing rate until at about 30 days the forecast skill is extremely small and comparable to the skill of a persistence forecast. Various time averages at various lags are examined for skill in the extended range. Filters that weighted most strongly in the initial forecast days provide increased skill.

Roads, John O.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Diagnosis of vertical motion from VAS retrievals

Satellite-derived temperature profiles are used to determine if reliable estimates of synoptic-scale vertical motion can be obtained from the adiabatic, vorticity, and omega equation techniques. The period of study contains a short-wave trough over the Midwest and a convective outbreak over the middle Mississippi River Valley. Satellite soundings are available at 1-3 h intervals at five times. The emphasis is on assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the three vertical motion procedures, and determining the effects of short-interval observations on the calculations. Results show that the quasi-geostrophic omega equation provided patterns and magnitudes most consistent with observed weather events and 12 h radiosonde-derived motions. The vorticity method produced less satisfactory results, while adiabatic motions were unacceptable. The time derivative term dominated adiabatic motions and was a major influence in the vorticity method. Unrealistic temperature tendencies resulted from the retrieval algorithm; i.e., a diurnal temperature bias extended upwards to 500 mb, and there was a compensating effect at higher levels.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Evanescent pressure gradient response in the upper ocean to subinertial wind stress forcing of finite wavelength

A schematic model is used to interpret field observations related to the mixed layer response to wind stress at subinertial frequencies. It is shown that subinertial density and pressure fluctuations can arise locally from the finite wavelength character of the wind stress forcing as a fundamental part of the upper ocean transient, wind-driven response on time scales of 2-10 pendulum days. Evanescent vertical motions arise which alter the density field of the pycnocline, and hence the pressure field over the entire upper ocean. It is thus found that in the real ocean driven by wind stress, a transient geostrophic response exists which can be as large or larger than the transient Eckman response.

White, Warren B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Nonlinear instability of a forced baroclinic Rossby wave

The nonlinear instability of forced baroclinic Rossby waves to finite-amplitude perturbations was investigated using a simple two-layer quasi-geostrophic weakly nonlinear model and a low-order spectral model, developed for this purpose. The results were applied to a study of the interaction of planetary-scale stationary eddies with synoptic-scale transient eddies. A comparison of the energetics of the weakly nonlinear solution with that seen in observational analysis and in GCM experiments indicate three basic properties of the interaction between the two types of eddies: (1) eddy available potential energy is transferred from the planetary-scale stationary eddies to the synoptic-scale transient eddies, (2) eddy kinetic energy is transferred in the opposite direction, and (3) the eddy available potential energy transfer dominates the transfer of eddy kinetic energy. It is concluded that the simple weakly nonlinear model used in these studies does indeed capture much of the fundamental behavior of wave-wave interactions seen in the atmosphere.

Feldstein, Steven B.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Potential vorticity and layer thickness variations in the flow around Jupiter's Great Red Spot and White Oval BC

Using Voyager images, layer thickness variations in the flow around Jupiter's Great Red Spot (GRS) and White Oval BC were investigated by treating potential vorticity as a conserved tracer. Fluid trajectories around the GRS and the White Oval BC were calculated assuming the flow to be frictionless, adiabatic, hydrostatic, and steady in the reference frame of the vortex. The data obtained constitute a useful diagnostic which will help to differentiate between models of Jovian vortices. Implications of the observations were studied in the context of a one-layer quasi-geostrophic model in which a thin upper weather layer, which contains the vortex, is supported hydrostatically by a much deeper lower layer.

Dowling, Timothy E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mesoscale spiral vortex embedded within a Lake Michigan snow squall band - High resolution satellite observations and numerical model simulations

It is known that Great Lakes snow squall convection occurs in a variety of different modes depending on various factors such as air-water temperature contrast, boundary-layer wind shear, and geostrophic wind direction. An exceptional and often neglected source of data for mesoscale cloud studies is the ultrahigh resolution multispectral data produced by Landsat satellites. On October 19, 1972, a clearly defined spiral vortex was noted in a Landsat-1 image near the southern end of Lake Michigan during an exceptionally early cold air outbreak over a still very warm lake. In a numerical simulation using a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrostatic primitive equation mesoscale model with an initially uniform wind field, a definite analog to the observed vortex was generated. This suggests that intense surface heating can be a principal cause in the development of a low-level mesoscale vortex.

Lyons, Walter A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Variability of pigment biomass in the California Current system as determined by satellite imagery. I - Spatial variability

Spatial variability of chlorophyll in the California Current system was analyzed using Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) imagery. A total of 48 images were analyzed to produce seasonal averages and variances, gradients, and power spectra. Roughly one third to one half of the variance in pigment biomass can be explained by consistent, large-scale gradients. In general, biomass is higher in the north and in nearshore areas. Nearshore areas also have proportionally more small-scale variability than the areas offshore. Slopes of the power spectra for nearshore areas are about -2.2 (for spatial scales of 10-100 km), while slopes for offshore areas are about -3. In addition, the power spectra show evidence of a change in slope at about 10 km, with slopes of about -1 for shorter-length scales. This may indicate that biological processes dominate the smaller scales, while mesoscale eddies and geostrophic currents dominate the larger scales.

Smith, Raymond C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The eddy transport of nonconserved trace species derived from satellite data

Using the approach of the Garcia and Solomon (1983) model and data obtained by the LIMS instrument on Nimbus 7, the chemical eddy transport matrix for planetary waves was calculated, and the chemical eddy contribution to the components of the matrix obtained from the LIMS satellite observations was computed using specified photochemical damping time scales. The dominant component of the transport matrices for several winter months were obtained for ozone, nitric acid, and quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity (PV), and the parameterized transports of these were compared with the 'exact' transports, computed directly from the eddy LIMS data. The results indicate that the chemical eddy effect can account for most of the observed ozone transport in early winter, decreasing to less than half in late winter. The agreement between the parameterized and observed nitric acid and PV was not as good. Reasons for this are discussed.

Smith, Anne K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Circulation from a joint gravity field solution determination of the general ocean

With the development of satellite altimetry, it is possible to infer the geostrophic velocity of the surface ocean currents, if the geoid and the position of the satellite are known accurately. Errors in current geoid models and orbit computations, both due primarily to errors in the earth's gravity field model, have limited the use of altimeter data for this purpose. The objective of this investigation is to demonstrate that altimeter data can be used in a joint solution to simultaneously estimate the quasi-stationary sea surface topography, zeta, and the model for the gravity field. Satellite tracking data from twelve satellites were used along with Seasat altimeter data for the solution. The estimated model of zeta compares well at long wavelengths with the hydrographic model of zeta. Covariance analysis indicates that the geoid is separable from zeta up to degree 9, at which point geoid error is comparable to the signal of zeta.

Tapley, B. D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Analysis of sea ice dynamics

The ongoing work has established the basis for using multiyear sea ice concentrations from SMMR passive microwave for studies of largescale advection and convergence/divergence of the Arctic sea ice pack. Comparisons were made with numerical model simulations and buoy data showing qualitative agreement on daily to interannual time scales. Analysis of the 7-year SMMR data set shows significant interannual variations in the total area of multiyear ice. The scientific objective is to investigate the dynamics, mass balance, and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice pack. The research emphasizes the direct application of sea ice parameters derived from passive microwave data (SMMR and SSMI) and collaborative studies using a sea ice dynamics model. The possible causes of observed interannual variations in the multiyear ice area are being examined. The relative effects of variations in the large scale advection and convergence/divergence within the ice pack on a regional and seasonal basis are investigated. The effects of anomolous atmospheric forcings are being examined, including the long-lived effects of synoptic events and monthly variations in the mean geostrophic winds. Estimates to be made will include the amount of new ice production within the ice pack during winter and the amount of ice exported from the pack.

Zwally, J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the MAP/WINE campaign winter 1983 to 1984 in comparison with other winters

For the MAP/WINE winter temperature and wind measurements of rockets were combined with SSU radiances (Stratospheric Sounder Unit onboard the NOAA satellites) and stratopause heights from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) to get a retrieved data set including all available information. By means of this data set a hemispheric geopotential height, temperature and geostrophic wind fields eddy transports for wave mean flow interaction and potential vorticity for the interpretation of nonlinear wave breaking could be computed. Wave reflection at critical lines was investigated with respect of stratospheric warmings. The meridional gradient of the potential vorticity and focusing of wave activity is compared with derived data from satellite observations during other winters.

Petzoldt, K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Wind and waves in the middle atmosphere observed with the MU radar

The VHF band MU radar at Shigaraki, Japan, has been in full operation successfully since April 1985. Dynamical features found primarily in the data obtained by the radar during a one year period from December 1985 to November 1986 are examined. These include: basic wind observations, quasi-monochromatic gravity waves generated by the jet stream or through a geostrophic adjustment process, seasonal variation of the mesoscale wind variability, the momentum flux due to gravity wave motions, and saturated gravity wave spectrum. A short discussion is added to the relationship between turbulent layers and ambient wind field in the mesosphere.

Fukao, S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Effects of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation on the initiation of a local severe storm

The role of evapotranspiration in a prestorm environment and the way in which a local severe storm initiates under the influence of spatial variations of soil moisture and vegetation coverage are examined. The Goddard Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (Kaplan et al., 1982) is used to study the case of an isolated but intense convective storm associated with the Grand Island, Nebraska, tornado on June 3-4, 1980. It is found that spatial variations of vegetation and soil moisture increase the surface temperature gradient, enhance the thermally direct ageostrophic circulation, intensify the surface pressure gradient, and enhance the geostrophic low-level southerly flow.

Chang, Jy-Tai↗

NASA NTRS1988

The dynamics of error growth in a quasigeostrophic channel model

The objective of the paper is to determine the extent to which baroclinic instability contributes to the growth of errors in simple, yet realistic models of atmospheric flow. The model used here is a two-level quasi-geostrophic channel model. Results of two predictability experiments are reported. In one experiment, the initial condition perturbation was confined to the highest wavenumbers and had an energy of 1 percent of the climatological energy of the model for these scales. In the other experiment, perturbations were put only in the planetary wave and had the same strength relative to climatology as in the first experiment, leading to much larger absolute errors.

Straus, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

A mesoscale gravity wave event observed during CCOPE. III - Wave environment and probable source mechanisms

The multiscale environment of gravity wave events and the probable mechanisms of their origin are examined on the basis of observations taken during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment in extreme eastern Montana, during the period from 1200 UTC July 11, 1981, to 0500 UTC July 12. During this time, two distinct gravity wave episodes were diagnosed. The results of the analysis of the evolving structures in the subsynoptic-scale and mesoscale environments indicate that the observed mesoscale gravity waves were generated by geostrophic adjustment processes, with additional energy supplied through interaction with the critical level; their coherence was maintained through a ducting mechanism.

Koch, Steven E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Further comparison of two synoptic surface wind and pressure analysis methods

The geostrophic stream and potential functions of Sangster and the derived flat pressure field of Pielke and Cram are further compared. A simple numerical experiment with an idealized mountain-atmosphere system compares the two methods and their sensitivity to lateral boundary conditions. The flat pressure field of Pielke and Cram is essentially equivalent to the stream-function of Sangster, although the two methods have different boundary condition formulations and resulting different sensitivities to these boundary conditions.

Cram, Jennifer M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A parameterization of eddy transfer coefficients for two-level seasonal statistical dynamical zonally averaged models

This paper examines a parameterization of a quasi-geostrophic eddy transport that takes into account the time variation of eddy transfer coefficients according to Green's (1970) theory. It was found that, in the original eddy transfer relationship of Green, connecting the integral of the northward eddy entropy flux through midlatitudes with the second power of the difference in 500-mb entropy across the region of baroclinic activity, a value of 4 for the exponent is obtained when the temperature gradients at 500 mb are used. When the gradients at 1000 mb are used, an exponent of 1.5 is obtained. The differences in the powers in the eddy transfer relation were explored in a two-level zonally averaged model. It was found that an appropriate choice of power may be of special importance if the model is devised to simulate the seasonal climate cycle or to test astronomical changes inducing different seasonalities.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Altimetry, ship gravimetry, and the general circulation of the North Atlantic

Gravity accelerations estimated from satellite altimetric mean sea surfaces (Seasat and Geos-3) are compared to ship gravity measurements. Ship gravity are closer to an estimate based on least squares collocation, orbit perturbations, altimetry and terrestrial gravity than to an estimate based on Fourier transforms, orbit perturbations and altimetry only. Both altimetric estimates yield a smoothed picture of the geostrophic component of sea surface currents in the North Atlantic when gravity acceleration data from only nine cruises are subtracted from the altimetric gravity.

Zlotnicki, Victor↗