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At least 325 records · Page 18

Generalized Maximum Entropy

A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

Cheeseman, Peter↗

The Exact Solution for Linear Thermoelastic Axisymmetric Deformations of Generally Laminated Circular Cylindrical Shells

A detailed exact solution is presented for laminated-composite circular cylinders with general wall construction and that undergo axisymmetric deformations. The overall solution is formulated in a general, systematic way and is based on the solution of a single fourth-order, nonhomogeneous ordinary differential equation with constant coefficients in which the radial displacement is the dependent variable. Moreover, the effects of general anisotropy are included and positive-definiteness of the strain energy is used to define uniquely the form of the basis functions spanning the solution space of the ordinary differential equation. Loading conditions are considered that include axisymmetric edge loads, surface tractions, and temperature fields. Likewise, all possible axisymmetric boundary conditions are considered. Results are presented for five examples that demonstrate a wide range of behavior for specially orthotropic and fully anisotropic cylinders.

Nemeth, Michael P.↗

Radiative Impacts of Cloud Heterogeneity and Overlap in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The radiative impacts of introducing horizontal heterogeneity of layer cloud condensate, and vertical overlap of condensate and cloud fraction are examined with the aid of a new radiation package operating in the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. The impacts are examined in terms of diagnostic top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect (CRE) calculations for a range of assumptions and parameter specifications about the overlap. The investigation is conducted for two distinct cloud schemes, the one that comes with the standard GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced cloud microphysical capabilities; both are coupled to a cloud generator allowing arbitrary cloud overlap specification. We find that cloud overlap radiative impacts are significantly stronger for the operational cloud scheme for which a change of cloud fraction overlap from maximum-random to generalized results to global changes of SW and LW CRE of approximately 4 Watts per square meter, and zonal changes of up to approximately 10 Watts per square meter. This is because of fewer occurrences compared to the other scheme of large layer cloud fractions and of multi-layer situations with large numbers of atmospheric being simultaneously cloudy, conditions that make overlap details more important. The impact on CRE of the details of condensate distribution overlap is much weaker. Once generalized overlap is adopted, both cloud schemes are only modestly sensitive to the exact values of the overlap parameters. We also find that if one of the CRE components is overestimated and the other underestimated, both cannot be driven towards observed values by adjustments to cloud condensate heterogeneity and overlap alone.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

A New and General Formulation of the Parametric HFGMC Micromechanical Method for Three-Dimensional Multi-Phase Composites

The recent two-dimensional (2-D) parametric formulation of the high fidelity generalized method of cells (HFGMC) reported by the authors is generalized for the micromechanical analysis of three-dimensional (3-D) multiphase composites with periodic microstructure. Arbitrary hexahedral subcell geometry is developed to discretize a triply periodic repeating unit-cell (RUC). Linear parametric-geometric mapping is employed to transform the arbitrary hexahedral subcell shapes from the physical space to an auxiliary orthogonal shape, where a complete quadratic displacement expansion is performed. Previously in the 2-D case, additional three equations are needed in the form of average moments of equilibrium as a result of the inclusion of the bilinear terms. However, the present 3-D parametric HFGMC formulation eliminates the need for such additional equations. This is achieved by expressing the coefficients of the full quadratic polynomial expansion of the subcell in terms of the side or face average-displacement vectors. The 2-D parametric and orthogonal HFGMC are special cases of the present 3-D formulation. The continuity of displacements and tractions, as well as the equilibrium equations, are imposed in the average (integral) sense as in the original HFGMC formulation. Each of the six sides (faces) of a subcell has an independent average displacement micro-variable vector which forms an energy-conjugate pair with the transformed average-traction vector. This allows generating symmetric stiffness matrices along with internal resisting vectors for the subcells which enhances the computational efficiency. The established new parametric 3-D HFGMC equations are formulated and solution implementations are addressed. Several applications for triply periodic 3-D composites are presented to demonstrate the general capability and varsity of the present parametric HFGMC method for refined micromechanical analysis by generating the spatial distributions of local stress fields. These applications include triply periodic composites with inclusions in the form of a cavity, spherical inclusion, ellipsoidal inclusion, discontinuous aligned short fiber. A 3-D repeating unit-cell for foam material composite is simulated.

Haj-Ali, Rami↗

Roll Damping Derivatives from Generalized Lifting-Surface Theory and Wind Tunnel Forced-Oscillation Tests

Improving aerodynamic models for adverse loss-of-control conditions in flight is an area being researched under the NASA Aviation Safety Program. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. As more general aerodynamic models are studied that include nonlinear higher order effects, the possibility of measurements that confound aerodynamic and structural responses are probable. In this study an initial step is taken to look at including structural flexibility in analysis of rigid-body forced-oscillation testing that accounts for dynamic rig, sting and balance flexibility. Because of the significant testing required and associated costs in a general study, it makes sense to capitalize on low cost analytical methods where possible, especially where structural flexibility can be accounted for by a low cost method. This paper provides an initial look at using linear lifting surface theory applied to rigid-body aircraft roll forced-oscillation tests.

Pototzky, Anthony S↗

Towards a General Equation for the Survival of Microbes Transferred between Solar System Bodies

It should be possible to construct a general equation describing the survival of microbes transferred between Solar System bodies. Such an equation will be useful for constraining the likelihood of transfer of viable organisms between bodies throughout the lifetime of the Solar System, and for refining Planetary Protection constraints placed on future missions. We will discuss the construction of such an equation, present a plan for definition of pertinent factors, and will describe what research will be necessary to quantify those factors. Description: We will examine the case of microbes transferred between Solar System bodies as residents in meteorite material ejected from one body (the "intial body") and deposited on another (the "target body"). Any microbes transferred in this fashion will experience four distinct phases between their initial state on the initial body, up to the point where they colonize the target body. Each of these phases features phenomena capable of reducing or exterminating the initial microbial population. They are: 1) Ejection: Material is ejected from the initial body, imparting shock followed by rapid desiccation and cooling. 2) Transport: Material travels through interplanetary space to the target body, exposing a hypothetical microbial population to extended desiccation, irradiation, and temperature extremes. 3) Infall: Material is deposited on the target body, diminishing the microbial population through shock, mass loss, and heating. 4) Adaptation: Any microbes which survive the previous three phases must then adapt to new chemophysical conditions of the target body. Differences in habitability between the initial and target bodies dominate this phase. A suitable general-form equation can be assembled from the above factors by defining the initial number of microbes in an ejected mass and applying multiplicitive factors based on the physical phenomena inherent to each phase. It should be possible to present the resulting equation in terms of initial ejection mass, ejection shock magnitude, transfer time, initial microbial load and/or other terms and generate graphs defining the number of surviving microbes. The general form of the equation is: x(sub f) = x(sub i) f(sub1) f(sub 2) f(sub 3) f(sub 4) Where x(sub f) is the final number of microbes to survive transfer, x(sub i) is the initial population prior to ejection, and f(sub 1-4) are mortality factors for the four phases described above. Among other considerations, f(sub 1) will vary with respect to impact shock magnitude and f(sub 2) will be time-dependent. Considerable research has been performed to date to quantify the survival rates of various microbes in response to portions of these four phases, both as vegetative cells and/or spores. Results indicate that many species tend to respond differently to the pertinent mortality factors, especially in the case of extremophiles. Therefore, a complete equation will include species-specific responses to the mortality factors.

Fries, M.↗

Water Hammer Simulations of MMH Propellant - New Capability Demonstration of the Generalized Fluid Flow Simulation Program

Fluid Transient analysis is important for the design of spacecraft propulsion system to ensure structural stability of the system in the event of sudden closing or opening of the valve. Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP), a general purpose flow network code developed at NASA/MSFC is capable of simulating pressure surge due to sudden opening or closing of valve when thermodynamic properties of real fluid are available for the entire range of simulation. Specifically GFSSP needs an accurate representation of pressure-density relationship in order to predict pressure surge during a fluid transient. Unfortunately, the available thermodynamic property programs such as REFPROP, GASP or GASPAK does not provide the thermodynamic properties of Monomethylhydrazine (MMH). This paper will illustrate the process used for building a customized table of properties of state variables from available properties and speed of sound that is required by GFSSP for simulation. Good agreement was found between the simulations and measured data. This method can be adopted for modeling flow networks and systems with other fluids whose properties are not known in detail in order to obtain general technical insight. Rigorous code validation of this approach will be done and reported at a future date.

Burkhardt, Z.↗

Time Series Explorer: Bayesian Blocks with Generalized Profiles and in Higher Dimensions

The Time Series Explorer (TSE) is a project aimed at provided new and advanced time series analysis algorithms in two forms: a tool kit and an automated pipeline applying selected tools in machine learning settings. I will present a sketch of TSE with emphasis on time-domain modeling in general and recent improvements of the Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm in particular. This includes generalizing the shape of the elementary blocks from the current constant-rate model to general shapes, such as two-sided exponentials. Related topics will include extension of BB to higher dimensions and a novel way to detect and characterize short time-scale bursts in time-tagged event data. The Fermi Gamma Ray Space Telescope light curve for the Crab Nebula will be used as an example for all of the algorithms discussed. This work is in collaboration with Tom Loredo.

Bayesian Block (BB) algorithm↗

Three-Dimensional Generalized Logarithmic Spirals

The family of generalized logarithmic spirals including a control parameter is extended to the three-dimensional case. The in-plane motion is decoupled from the out-of-plane motion in such a way that the integrals of motion found in the planar problem are still preserved in the three-dimensional case. Designing a low-thrust orbit transfer decomposes in two stages: first, orbits are projected on a reference plane and the planar transfer is solved with a generalized logarithmic spiral. Second, the out-of-plane component of the motion is included in order to target the final orbit. The projection of the three-dimensional transfer orbit on the reference plane is a generalized logarithmic spiral. Arbitrary shape-based laws for the 3D motion can be considered. This paper explores a polynomial and a Fourier series shaping method, together with a polynomial steering law. A fictitious low-thrust sample return mission to Ceres is designed to show the versatility of the method.

Roa, Javier↗

Tests of General Relativity With the Binary Black Hole Signals from the LIGO-Virgo Catalog GWTC-1

The detection of gravitational waves by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo provides an opportunity to test general relativity in a regime that is inaccessible to traditional astronomical observations and laboratory tests. We present four tests of the consistency of the data with binary black hole gravitational waveforms predicted by general relativity. One test subtracts the best-fit waveform from the data and checks the consistency of the residual with detector noise. The second test checks the consistency of the low- and high-frequency parts of the observed signals. The third test checks that phenomenological deviations introduced in the waveform model (including in the post-Newtonian coefficients) are consistent with 0. The fourth test constrains modifications to the propagation of gravitational waves due to a modified dispersion relation, including that from a massive graviton. We present results both for individual events and also results obtained by combining together particularly strong events from the first and second observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, as collected in the catalog GWTC-1. We do not find any inconsistency of the data with the predictions of general relativity and improve our previously presented combined constraints by factors of 1.1 to 2.5. In particular, we bound the mass of the graviton to be 𝑚𝑔≤4.7×10 −23 eV/𝑐 2 (90% credible level), an improvement of a factor of 1.6 over our previously presented results. Additionally, we check that the four gravitational-wave events published for the first time in GWTC-1 do not lead to stronger constraints on alternative polarizations than those published previously.

B P Abbott↗

Tests of General Relativity with Binary Black Holes from the second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog

Gravitational waves enable tests of general relativity in the highly dynamical and strong-field regime. Using events detected by LIGO-Virgo up to 1 October 2019, we evaluate the consistency of the data with predictions from the theory. We first establish that residuals from the best-fit waveform are consistent with detector noise, and that the low- and high-frequency parts of the signals are in agreement. We then consider parametrized modifications to the waveform by varying post-Newtonian and phenomenological coefficients, improving past constraints by factors of ∼2; we also find consistency with Kerr black holes when we specifically target signatures of the spin-induced quadrupole moment. Looking for gravitational-wave dispersion, we tighten constraints on Lorentz-violating coefficients by a factor of ∼2.6 and bound the mass of the graviton to m(g)≤1.76 x 10^(-23) eV/sq. c with 90% credibility. We also analyze the properties of the merger remnants by measuring ringdown frequencies and damping times, constraining fractional deviations away from the Kerr frequency to δ{\hat {f}}(220)=0.03(+0.38,-0.35) for the fundamental quadrupolar mode, and δ{\hat {f}}(221)=0.04(+0.27,-0.32) for the first overtone; additionally, we find no evidence for postmerger echoes. Finally, we determine that our data are consistent with tensorial polarizations through a template-independent method. When possible, we assess the validity of general relativity based on collections of events analyzed jointly. We find no evidence for new physics beyond general relativity, for black hole mimickers, or for any unaccounted systematics.

R. Abbott↗

Using Distributed Fiber-optic Strain Sensing to Estimate Generalized Modal Coordinates from Flight-test Data

A method for estimating the generalized modal coordinates of an aircraft during flight has been developed. The Fiber-optic Sensing System (FOSS) offers an efficient and cost-effective method of measuring the strain at thousands of points along the wings. The estimation of modal coordinates was implemented as a two-step process. First, a maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the statistical properties of the sensors and generalized modal coordinates. Second, the strain mode shapes from the finite element model are used along with the statistical properties from the first step to estimate the generalized modal coordinates over time. Using simulated data from the X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed (MUTT), different methods of modal coordinate estimation were compared to demonstrate the benefits and weaknesses of each. These were compared against the exact solution and an ordinary least squares (a more traditional method) estimate. Modal coordinate estimation methods were then applied to flight-test data from the X-56A aircraft to show that the method continues to work well with actual test data. The new estimation method provides insights unavailable from more classical approaches.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗

A Generalized, Compactly-Supported Correlation Function for Data Assimilation Applications

Correlation functions play an essential role in modern data assimilation, where they are used to model covariances given a set of tunable parameters or applied as tapering functions to localize covariances in ensemble-based schemes. One of the most widely-used correlation functions in data assimilation is the Gaspari and Cohn (1999) piecewise-rational, compactly-supported parametric correlation function (hereafter referred to as GC99). The GC99 correlation function is useful due to its tunable cut-off parameter c and Gaussian-like shape achieved when the parameter a is set to one-half. These properties are attractive for tapering functions in data assimilation applications. However, the GC99 correlation function is homogeneous over Euclidean 3-space and isotropic when restricted to the sphere, properties that may be less than ideal for some geophysical applications. GC99 is also compactly-supported on a sphere of fixed radius, which requires tuning of the cut-off parameter c that can depend on the specific application. This work presents a generalization of the GC99 correlation function that allows the cut-off parameter c and shape parameter a to vary over space to gain more flexibility in shape while maintaining its compact support property. The function, which we call the Generalized Gaspari Cohn (GenGC) correlation function, introduces inhomogeneity in Euclidean 3-space and anisotropy when restricted to the sphere by allowing both parameters c and a to vary, as functions, over the spatial domain. The GC99 correlation function is a special case of GenGC where the functions c and a are held constant, as fixed parameters rather than functions. The GenGC correlation function also generalizes the follow-on to the work of Gaspari and Cohn (1999) presented in Gaspari et al. (2006), which allowed a to vary while keeping c fixed. We illustrate through simple one- and two-dimensional examples the variety of inhomogeneous and anisotropic correlation functions GenGC can produce by varying c and a over space, and suggest applications where they may be useful in data assimilation, such as covariance modeling or localization. In particular, we describe how the GenGC correlation function can be used to construct covariances using correlation length and variance fields derived from dynamics. For example, the correlation length field for advective dynamics is governed by a partial differential equation (PDE) in N spatial dimensions, where N is the number of space dimensions of the state. Correlation length fields can be determined from this PDE and used with GenGC to construct the corresponding correlations. We can then approximate the full covariance by rescaling by the variance, which also satisfies a PDE in N spatial dimensions for advective dynamics. Thus we can approximate the full covariance without solving the covariance PDE, which is in 2N spatial dimensions, by solving just two PDEs each in only N spatial dimensions. This approach to evolving the correlation length and variance fields, then reconstructing the correlations using GenGC, is suggested as an alternative to current methods of covariance modeling in data assimilation algorithms.

GC99↗

Generalized Linear Targeting For Cislunar Flight

An important element of Artemis and NASA’s campaign to explore the Moon is the autonomous onboard two-level targeter (TLT) used during all cislunar flight phases. The function of the TLT is to autonomously recompute the burn targets for the upcoming burn (or multiple burns) in response to navigation and vehicle dispersion providing a solution that meets all of the trajectory constraints. Although the TLT has been utilized previously as a ground-based planning tool, and flown onboard during the Artemis I mission, it’s complexity and iterative nature make is difficult to incorporate into and support rapid analyses such as robust optimal trajectory design applications where speed is essential. In this paper, a set of generalized linear targeting algorithms that mimics many of the properties of the TLT is derived. The generalized algorithms can handle single or multiple impulsive maneuvers, with multiple constraints at multiple fixed or variable times. A linear targeting algorithm for finite burn maneuvers is also derived. The generalized linear targeting algorithms are exceptionally fast and easy to implement in Monte Carlo analysis, linear covariance (LinCov) analysis, and robust optimal trajectory design. Several cislunar flight examples are provided.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation↗

Generalized Reference Targeting for Spaceflight

For spaceflight programs to achieve some of the aggressive exploration initiatives such as visiting and landing on other celestial bodies, rendezvousing with other orbiting vehicles, and ultimately returning crew safely to Earth, an assortment of targeting algorithms to compute the necessary burns to strategically maneuver a spacecraft to a variety of destinations are required. Numerous examples exist, but rather than creating and implementing multiple targeting solutions, is it possible to have a general targeting model that can accommodate a variety of applications? Originally motivated for mission design and analysis purposes, this paper outlines a generalized reference targeting algorithm for spaceflight that may also have applications in on-orbit flight software. It accommodates arbitrary flight dynamics and both impulsive and finite burns for either absolute or relative targeting applications. It also allows for an arbitrary number of targeting design parameters such as multiple discrete correction burns or finite thrust parameters to satisfy numerous combinations of targeting constraints that can have fixed or variable time epochs. Given a reference trajectory, this targeting technique provides a general framework to quickly solve an assortment of targeting problems that may be well-defined, over-determined, or under-determined while naturally producing metrics providing insight into the controllability for a given problem formulation. Due to the derivation, speed, and accuracy of the algorithm, it lends to supporting rapid linear covariance analysis and robust trajectory design applications for a variety of flight phases such as rendezvous and docking, cislunar transfer, interplanetary flight, orbit maintenance, de-orbit, and powered descent and landing.

Targeting↗

UNREVIEWED DISPOSAL QUESTION EVALUATION: Disposal of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory General Radioactive Sources at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This Unreviewed Disposal Question Evaluation (UDQE) assesses whether the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) General Radioactive Sources (ORNLSOURCES01, Revision 6 [ORNL 2021]) is suitable for shallow land burial (SLB) at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Disposal of the ORNL General Radioactive Sources meets all performance objectives of DOE Manual DOE M 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual, Chapter IV, Section P (DOE 1999). The ORNL General Radioactive Stream is recommended for acceptance......

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Generalization Equations for Machine Learners Based on Physical and Abstract Laws

The physical and abstract laws derived from the first principles have been recently exploited to customize and sharpen machine learning (ML) methods and also derive their generalization equations. These laws often encapsulate knowledge that complements datasets and ML models. We present a generic framework that uses these laws to provide ML codes that are transferable across multiple areas, including data transport infrastructures and thermal hydraulics analytics of nuclear reactors. By anchoring on datasets from these areas and the statistical generalization theory, we present a rigorous approach to co-develop ML solutions and the generalization equations that characterize them, by exploiting the structure and constraints from the laws. We present illustrative examples using practical problems from existing literature on the performance characterization of data transport infrastructures, and the sensor error and power level estimation in nuclear reactor systems using sensor measurements of primary and secondary coolant systems, respectively.

Rao, Nageswara↗