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At least 325 records · Page 18

Architecture Improvements and Retesting of the Microscopic Depletion Implementation in the MAMMOTH Reactor Physics Application

Nuclear fuel experiments conducted at the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) will be analyzed with the MAMMOTH reactor physics application, currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory. MAMMOTH natively couples with the BISON, RELAP-7, and Rattlesnake applications within the MOOSE framework. The implemented methods allow for simulating the irradiation of fuel in a nuclear reactor from the beginning of life in a nuclear reactor until it is placed in TREAT for fuel testing using the same finite element mesh throughout the analysis retaining a very high level of resolution and fidelity. The calculation of the isotopic distribution in fuel requires the solution to the decay and transmutation equations coupled to the neutron transport equation. This report focuses on three significant improvements to the MAMMOTH micro-depletion capability. First, the depletion architecture within MAMMOTH is modified to improve the flexibility and speed of burnup calculations. The results of various benchmark tests demonstrate that the refactoring of the previously implemented capability does not introduce any regression. The second improvement involves the expansion of the data functionality. MAMMOTH can now read the decay data files used by the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation (ORIGEN) code, thus enabling access to data of more than 1,600 isotopes. The third improvement is the capability to perform depletion at a constant power level which was verified via a comparison to ORIGEN.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Analyzing Effects of Turbulence on Power Generation Using Wind Plant Monitoring Data: Preprint

In this paper, a methodology is developed to analyze how ambient and wake turbulence affects the power generation of a single wind turbine within an array of turbines. Using monitoring data from a wind power plant, we selected two sets of wind and power data for turbines on the edge of the wind plant that resemble (i) an out-of-wake scenario (i.e., when the turbine directly faces incoming winds) and (ii) an in-wake scenario (i.e., when the turbine is under the wake of other turbines). For each set of data, two surrogate models were then developed to represent the turbine power generation (i) as a function of the wind speed; and (ii) as a function of the wind speed and turbulence intensity. Support vector regression was adopted for the development of the surrogate models. Three types of uncertainties in the turbine power generation were also investigated: (i) the uncertainty in power generation with respect to the published/reported power curve, (ii) the uncertainty in power generation with respect to the estimated power response that accounts for only mean wind speed; and (iii) the uncertainty in power generation with respect to the estimated power response that accounts for both mean wind speed and turbulence intensity. Results show that (i) under the same wind conditions, the turbine generates different power between the in-wake and out-of-wake scenarios, (ii) a turbine generally produces more power under the in-wake scenario than under the out-of-wake scenario, (iii) the power generation is sensitive to turbulence intensity even when the wind speed is greater than the turbine rated speed, and (iv) there is relatively more uncertainty in the power generation under the in-wake scenario than under the out-of-wake scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Double-Edged Sword: The Role of Prior Knowledge in Memory Aging

People accumulate knowledge throughout their lifespan and the accumulated knowledge influences how we encode and retrieve information in memory processing. This study aims to investigate the role of knowledge in associative memory across the adult lifespan, and specifically examines the effects of two material properties that interact with prior knowledge: congruency – whether the material is congruent with people’s prior knowledge, and ambiguity – whether the material is ambiguous to interpret based on prior knowledge. 273 participants (aged 22–70 years old) completed an incidental memory task online. Participants were shown pictures depicting an object in a scene and judged if the object was likely or unlikely to be in the particular scene. Later, in the recognition test, participants were asked to identify if the exact picture was presented earlier. The pictures were manipulated to have varying levels of congruency, meaning that some depicted likely object–scene pairs and some unlikely. We also measured how different the likely/unlikely judgment for each object–scene pair was across all participants to determine the ambiguity level of the object–scene pair: some were more likely to receive diverse responses across people, whereas others are unambiguously consistent (or inconsistent) with common knowledge shared by most people. We used mixed-effects logistic regressions to predict memory outcome for each trial as a function of age, age 2 , congruency/ambiguity, and their interactions. The object–scene pairs perceived as congruent had higher hit rates than incongruent ones, as well as higher false alarm rates, especially in middle-aged and older people. Higher ambiguity was also related to both greater true and false memory, independent of age. Finally, the effect of ambiguity only emerged when the object–scene pair was perceived incongruent. The results suggest that people rely on prior knowledge to process new information and that this reliance improves hit responses, but also induces false memories particularly for middle-aged and older people, suggesting a double-edged role of knowledge in associative memory and its disproportionate influence on memory aging. Over-reliance on knowledge in older adults, which has been suspected in other cognitive processes, may be one of the mechanisms underlying associative memory decrease in aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Resistance of nickel-chromium-aluminum alloys to cyclic oxidation at 1100 C and 1200 C

Nickel-rich alloys in the Ni-Cr-Al system were evaluated for cyclic oxidation resistance in still air at 1,100 and 1,200 C. A first approximation oxidation attack parameter Ka was derived from specific weight change data involving both a scaling growth constant and a spalling constant. An estimating equation was derived with Ka as a function of the Cr and Al content by multiple linear regression and translated into countour ternary diagrams showing regions of minimum attack. An additional factor inferred from the regression analysis was that alloys melted in zirconia crucibles had significantly greater oxidation resistance than comparable alloys melted otherwise.

Barrett, C. A.↗

Creep testing of foil-gage metals at elevated temperature using an automated data acquisition system

A method is being developed to obtain creep data on foil gage metals at elevated temperatures using an automated data acquisition system in conjunction with a mechanically counter balanced extensometer. The automated system components include the Hewlett-Packard (HP) 9845A desktop computer, the HP 3455A digital voltmeter and the HP 3495A scanner. Software for test monitoring and data collection was developed; data manipulation, including curve plotting was done with a HP regression analysis software package. Initial creep tests were conducted on .003 in. thick foil specimens of Ti-6A1-4V at temperatures of 800 F and 1000 F and at stress levels of 25 ksi and 45 ksi. For comparison, duplicate tests were run on .049 in. thick specimens sheet of the same alloy. During testing, the furnace and specimen temperature, bridge voltage, strain and load output were automatically monitored and recorded at predetermined intervals. Using the HP regression analysis program, recorded strain output was plotted as a function of time. These resultant creep curves indicate that, under similar conditions of temperature and stress, foil gage specimens exhibit a higher creep rate than sheet specimens.

Blackburn, L. B.↗

Estimation of instantaneous heat transfer coefficients for a direct-injection stratified-charge rotary engine

The main objective of this report was to derive equations to estimate heat transfer coefficients in both the combustion chamber and coolant pasage of a rotary engine. This was accomplished by making detailed temperature and pressure measurements in a direct-injection stratified-charge rotary engine under a range of conditions. For each sppecific measurement point, the local physical properties of the fluids were calculated. Then an empirical correlation of the coefficients was derived by using a multiple regression program. This correlation expresses the Nusselt number as a function of the Prandtl number and Reynolds number.

Lee, C. M.↗

A statistical analysis of elevated temperature gravimetric cyclic oxidation data of 36 Ni- and Co-base superalloys based on an oxidation attack parameter

A large body of high temperature cyclic oxidation data generated from tests at NASA Lewis Research Center involving gravimetric/time values for 36 Ni- and Co-base superalloys was reduced to a single attack parameter, K(sub a), for each run. This K(sub a) value was used to rank the cyclic oxidation resistance of each alloy at 1000, 1100, and 1150 C. These K(sub a) values were also used to derive an estimating equation using multiple linear regression involving log(sub 10)K(sub a) as a function of alloy chemistry and test temperature. This estimating equation has a high degree of fit and could be used to predict cyclic oxidation behavior for similar alloys and to design an optimum high strength Ni-base superalloy with maximum high temperature cyclic oxidation resistance. The critical alloy elements found to be beneficial were Al, Cr, and Ta.

Barrett, Charles A.↗

Operational Weight Estimations of Commercial Jet Transport Aircraft

In evaluating current or proposed commercial transport airplanes, there has not been available a ready means to determine weights so as to compare airplanes within this particular class. This paper describes the development of and presents such comparative tools. The major design characteristics of current American jet transport airplanes were collected, and these data were correlated by means of regression analysis to develop weight relationships for these airplanes as functions of their operational requirements. The characteristics for 23 airplanes were assembled and examined in terms of the effects of the number of people carried, the cargo load, and the operating range. These airplane characteristics were correlated for the airplanes as one of three subclasses, namely the small, twin-engine jet transport, the conventional three- and four-engine jets, and the new wide-body jets.

Anderson, Joseph L.↗

Determination of Unfiltered Radiances from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Instrument

A new method for determining unfiltered shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and window (W) radiances from filtered radiances measured by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite instrument is presented. The method uses theoretically derived regression coefficients between filtered and unfiltered radiances that are a function of viewing geometry, geotype and whether or not cloud is present. Relative errors in insta.ntaneous unfiltered radiances from this method are generally well below 1% for SW radiances (approx. 0.4% 1(sigma) or approx.l W/sq m equivalent flux), < 0.2% for LW radiances (approx. 0.1% 1(sigma) or approx.0.3 W/sq m equivalent flux) and < 0.2% (approx. 0.1% 1(sigma) for window channel radiances.

Loeb, N. G.↗

The Calibration of AVHRR/3 Visible Dual Gain Using Meteosat-8 as a MODIS Calibration Transfer Medium

This viewgraph presentation reviews the NOAA-17 AVHRR visible channels calibrated against MET-8/MODIS using dual gain regression methods. The topics include: 1) Motivation; 2) Methodology; 3) Dual Gain Regression Methods; 4) Examples of Regression methods; 5) AVHRR/3 Regression Strategy; 6) Cross-Calibration Method; 7) Spectral Response Functions; 8) MET8/NOAA-17; 9) Example of gain ratio adjustment; 10) Effect of mixed low/high count FOV; 11) Monitor dual gains over time; and 12) Conclusions

Avey, Lance↗

Partitioning of Ni, Co and V between Spinel-Structured Oxides and Silicate Melts: Importance of Spinel Composition

Partitioning of Ni, Co and V between Cr-rich spinels and basaltic melt has been studied experimentally between 1150 and 1325 C, and at controlled oxygen fugacity from the Co-CoO buffer to slightly above the hematite magnetite buffer. These new results, together with new Ni, Co and V analyses of experimental run products from Leeman [Leeman, W.P., 1974. Experimental determination of the partitioning of divalent cations between olivine and basaltic liquid, Pt. II. PhD thesis, Univ. Oregon, 231 - 337.], show that experimentally determined spinel melt partition coefficients (D) are dependent upon temperature (T), oxygen fugacity (fO2) and spinel composition. In particular, partition coefficients determined on doped systems are higher than those in natural (undoped) systems, perhaps due to changing activity coefficients over the composition range defined by the experimental data. Using our new results and published runs (n =85), we obtain a multilinear regression equation that predicts experimental D(V) values as a function of T, fO2, concentration of V in melt and spinel composition. This equation allows prediction of D(V) spinel/melt values for natural mafic liquids at relevant crystallization conditions. Similarly, D(Ni) and D(Co) values can be inferred from our experiments at redox conditions approaching the QFM buffer, temperatures of 1150 to 1250 C and spinel composition (early Cr-bearing and later Ti-magnetite) appropriate for basic magma differentiation. When coupled with major element modelling of liquid lines of descent, these values (D(Ni) sp/melt=10 and D(Co) sp/melt=5) closely reproduce the compositional variation observed in komatiite, mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), ocean island basalt (OIB) and basalt to rhyolite suites.

Righter, K.↗

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

Background: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships. Methods: We used Poisson regressions to model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100. Results: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months (April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city. Conclusions: We found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using two climate model projections, based on constant temperature-mortality relationships from 1997 to 2006 without any future adaptation. However, results varied by location, with some locations showing net reductions in premature temperature-attributable deaths with climate change.

Schwartz, Joel D.↗

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗

Longitudinal data analysis in support of functional stability concepts for leachate management at closed municipal landfills

Highlights: • Longitudinal data analysis using a mixed-effects regression model. • Dataset consisted of a total of 1402 samples from 101 closed municipal landfills. • Target analytes and classes generally showed predictable degradation trends. • Validates historical studies focused on macro organic indicators such as BOD. • BOD can serve as “gateway” indicator for planning leachate management. - Abstract: Landfill functional stability provides a target that supports no environmental threat at the relevant point of exposure in the absence of active control systems. With respect to leachate management, this study investigates “gateway” indicators for functional stability in terms of the predictability of leachate characteristics, and thus potential threat to water quality posed by leachate emissions. Historical studies conducted on changes in municipal solid waste (MSW) leachate concentrations over time (longitudinal analysis) have concentrated on indicator compounds, primarily chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). However, validation of these studies using an expanded database and larger constituent sets has not been performed. This study evaluated leachate data using a mixed-effects regression model to determine the extent to which leachate constituent degradation can be predicted based on waste age or operational practices. The final dataset analyzed consisted of a total of 1402 samples from 101 MSW landfills. Results from the study indicated that all leachate constituents exhibit a decreasing trend with time in the post-closure period, with 16 of the 25 target analytes and aggregate classes exhibiting a statistically significant trend consistent with well-studied indicators such as BOD. Decreasing trends in BOD concentration after landfill closure can thus be considered representative of trends for many leachate constituents of concern.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An investigation of correlation between pilot scanning behavior and workload using stepwise regression analysis

An electro-optical device called an oculometer which tracks a subject's lookpoint as a time function has been used to collect data in a real-time simulation study of instrument landing system (ILS) approaches. The data describing the scanning behavior of a pilot during the instrument approaches have been analyzed by use of a stepwise regression analysis technique. A statistically significant correlation between pilot workload, as indicated by pilot ratings, and scanning behavior has been established. In addition, it was demonstrated that parameters derived from the scanning behavior data can be combined in a mathematical equation to provide a good representation of pilot workload.

Waller, M. C.↗

Estimating regression coefficients from clustered samples: Sampling errors and optimum sample allocation

A number of surveys were conducted to study the relationship between the level of aircraft or traffic noise exposure experienced by people living in a particular area and their annoyance with it. These surveys generally employ a clustered sample design which affects the precision of the survey estimates. Regression analysis of annoyance on noise measures and other variables is often an important component of the survey analysis. Formulae are presented for estimating the standard errors of regression coefficients and ratio of regression coefficients that are applicable with a two- or three-stage clustered sample design. Using a simple cost function, they also determine the optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the sample design for the estimation of a regression coefficient.

Kalton, G.↗

Ocean color spectra measured off the Oregon coast - Characteristic vectors

The ocean color spectrum is defined as the ratio of the spectrum of light upwelled from the sea to the spectrum of light incident on the sea surface. Ocean color spectra, observed from an airplane flown over waters off Oregon, are analyzed. The original spectra are resolved into fifty-five wavelength bands, each 5 nm wide. The shapes of these spectra are parameterized by, and shown to be accurately recoverable from, their first four principal components. These components are the scalar projections of each spectrum on the first four characteristic vectors of the sample covariance matrix. Regression equations are found with which phytoplankton pigment concentration and water transparency may be estimated as linear functions of the principal components. Pigment concentration estimates thus obtained are imprecise. The poor fit is at least partly due to the inappropriateness of the linear regression model and the neglect of other optically important substances typically present in sea water.

Mueller, J. L.↗

TU-G-BRA-04: Changes in Regional Lung Function Measured by 4D-CT Ventilation Imaging for Thoracic Radiotherapy

Purpose: To test the hypothesis: 4D-CT ventilation imaging can show the known effects of radiotherapy on lung function: (1) radiation-induced ventilation reductions, and (2) ventilation increases caused by tumor regression. Methods: Repeat 4D-CT scans (pre-, mid- and/or post-treatment) were acquired prospectively for 11 thoracic cancer patients in an IRB-approved clinical trial. A ventilation image for each time point was created using deformable image registration and the Hounsfield unit (HU)-based or Jacobian-based metric. The 11 patients were divided into two subgroups based on tumor volume reduction using a threshold of 5 cm{sup 3}. To quantify radiation-induced ventilation reduction, six patients who showed a small tumor volume reduction (<5 cm{sup 3}) were analyzed for dose-response relationships. To investigate ventilation increase caused by tumor regression, two of the other five patients were analyzed to compare ventilation changes in the lung lobes affected and unaffected by the tumor. The remaining three patients were excluded because there were no unaffected lobes. Results: Dose-dependent reductions of HU-based ventilation were observed in a majority of the patient-specific dose-response curves and in the population-based dose-response curve, whereas no clear relationship was seen for Jacobian-based ventilation. The post-treatment population-based dose-response curve of HU-based ventilation demonstrated the average ventilation reductions of 20.9±7.0% at 35–40 Gy (equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions, EQD2), and 40.6±22.9% at 75–80 Gy EQD2. Remarkable ventilation increases in the affected lobes were observed for the two patients who showed an average tumor volume reduction of 37.1 cm{sup 3} and re-opening airways. The mid-treatment increase in HU-based ventilation of patient 3 was 100.4% in the affected lobes, which was considerably greater than 7.8% in the unaffected lobes. Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that 4D-CT ventilation imaging shows the known effects of radiotherapy on lung function: radiation-induced ventilation reduction and ventilation increase caused by tumor regression, providing validation for 4D-CT ventilation imaging. This study was supported in part by a National Lung Cancer Partnership Young Investigator Research grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗