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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing: Calculations and Measurements from the Tropospheric

Radiative forcing is defined as the change in the net (downwelling minus upwelling) radiative flux at a given level in the atmosphere. This net flux is the radiative power density available to drive climatic processes in the earth-atmosphere system below that level. Recent research shows that radiative forcing by aerosol particles is a major source of uncertainty in climate predictions. To reduce those uncertainties, TARFOX was designed to determine direct (cloud-free) radiative forcing by the aerosols in one of the world's major industrial pollution plumes--that flowing from the east coast of the US over the Atlantic Ocean. TARFOX measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including direct forcing) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the aerosol particles causing those effects. The resulting data sets permit a wide variety of tests of the consistency, or closure, among the measurements and the models that link them. Because climate predictions use the same or similar model components, closure tests help to assess and reduce prediction uncertainties. In this work we use the TARFOX-determined aerosol, gas, and surface properties to compute radiative forcing for a variety of aerosol episodes, with inadvisable optical depths ranging from 0.07 to 0.6. We calculate forcing by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to test the range of applicability of simplified techniques--which are often the only ones feasible in climate predictions by general circulation models (GCMs). We then compare computed forcing to that determined from: (1) Upwelling and downwelling fluxes (0.3-0.7 mm and 0.7-3.0 mm) measured by radiometers on the UK MRF C-130. and (2) Daily average cloud-free absorbed solar and emitted thermal radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere derived from the AVHRR radiometer on the NOAA- 14 satellite. The calculations and measurements all yield aerosol direct radiative forcing in the range -50 to -190 W sq m per unit inadvisable optical depth. The magnitudes are about 15 to 100 times larger than the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger forcing in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce the actual major radiative forcing events that contribute to any global-average climate effect. Detailed comparisons of calculated and measured forcings for specific events are used for more refined tests of closure.

Russell, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Vacuum-Assisted, Constant-Force Exercise Device

The vacuum-assisted, constant-force exercise device (VAC-FED) has been proposed to fill a need for a safe, reliable exercise machine that would provide constant loads that could range from 20 to 250 lb (0.09 to 1.12 kN) with strokes that could range from 6 to 36 in. (0.15 to 0.91 m). The VAC-FED was originally intended to enable astronauts in microgravity to simulate the lifting of free weights, but it could just as well be used on Earth for simulated weight lifting and other constant-force exercises. Because the VAC-FED would utilize atmospheric/vacuum differential pressure instead of weights to generate force, it could weigh considerably less than either a set of free weights or a typical conventional exercise machine based on weights. Also, the use of atmospheric/ vacuum differential pressure to generate force would render the VAC-FED inherently safer, relative to free weights and to conventional exercise machines that utilize springs to generate forces. The overall function of the VAC-FED would be to generate a constant tensile force in an output cable, which would be attached to a bar, handle, or other exercise interface. The primary force generator in the VAC-FED would be a piston in a cylinder. The piston would separate a volume vented to atmosphere at one end of the cylinder from an evacuated volume at the other end of the cylinder (see figure). Hence, neglecting friction at the piston seals, the force generated would be nearly constant equal to the area of the piston multiplied by the atmospheric/vacuum differential pressure. In the vented volume in the cylinder, a direct-force cable would be looped around a pulley on the piston, doubling the stroke and halving the tension. One end of the direct-force cable would be anchored to a cylinder cap; the other end of the direct-force cable would be wrapped around a variable-ratio pulley that would couple tension to the output cable. As its name suggests, the variable-ratio pulley would contain a mechanism that could be used to vary the ratio between the tension in the direct-force cable and the tension in the output cable. This mechanism could contain gears, pulleys, and/or levers, for example.

Hansen, Christopher P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.

Shindell, D. T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Glass-particle adhesion-force-distribution on clean (laboratory) and contaminated (outdoor) surfaces

This article explores whether laboratory-clean samples are representative of real outdoor surfaces – often covered in dust and other contaminants – with respect to adhesion properties, which ultimately affect particle resuspension. In this study, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) was used to measure the adhesion force between a clean, smooth glass particle (5 µm in diameter) and two glass slides, one prepared according to common laboratory practices (hereafter, clean glass) and a second one left outdoors for six weeks (hereafter, contaminated glass). It was found that the adhesion force distribution was bimodal for the clean glass while it showed three peaks for the contaminated glass. For both surfaces, the adhesion force showed a peak at very low adhesion values (< 100 nN) representing 1.2% of the measurements for the clean glass and 58% for the contaminated glass. This low-adhesion peak is important because it represents the particles that would be resuspended first even in light winds. The low adhesion-force measurements were associated with the presence of contaminants on the surface. Another notable difference between the adhesion force distributions was a long tail at high adhesion forces for clean glass (up to ~1900 nN) and the absence of the tail for the contaminated glass, which had a maximum adhesion force of 950 nN. The mean adhesion force on the contaminated glass was also lower than on the clean glass (206 ± 240 nN vs. 516 ± 354 nN). These observations indicate that the adhesion force distribution between a 5-µm smooth and clean glass sphere and the outdoor contaminated glass surface is quite different from that of the clean glass surface. Hence, one should be cautious when using adhesion force measurements from clean surfaces to estimate particle resuspension from outdoor surfaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models

We describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2, CH4, and solar irradiance) that avoids many of the ambiguities introduced by temperature-related climate feedbacks. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to the climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global mean surface temperature constant. Compared to current approaches, this method has two main advantages: (i) the need to define radiative forcing is bypassed and (ii) by maintaining roughly constant global mean temperature, the effects of state dependence on internal feedback strengths are minimized. We demonstrate this approach for several different forcing agents and derive the relationships between these forcing agents in two climate models; comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted functional forms. Transitivity of the relationships between the forcing agents appears to hold within a wide range of forcing. The relationships between the forcing agents obtained from this method are consistent across both models but differ from relationships that would be obtained from calculations of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of controlling for surface temperature feedback effects when separating radiative forcing and climate response.

CH4↗
DOE OSTI2013

Host Model Uncertainties in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Estimates: Results from the AeroCom Prescribed Intercomparison Study

Simulated multi-model "diversity" in aerosol direct radiative forcing estimates is often perceived as mea- sure of aerosol uncertainty. However, current models used for aerosol radiative forcing calculations vary considerably in model components relevant for forcing calculations and the associated "host-model uncertainties" are generally convoluted with the actual aerosol uncertainty. In this AeroCom Prescribed intercomparison study we systematically isolate and quantify host model uncertainties on aerosol forcing experiments through prescription of identical aerosol radiative properties in nine participating models. Even with prescribed aerosol radiative properties,simulated clear-sky and all-sky aerosol radiative forcings show significant diversity. For a purely scattering case with globally constant optical depth of 0.2, the global-mean all-sky top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing is -4.51 Wm-2 and the inter-model standard deviation is 0.70 Wm-2, corresponding to a relative standard deviation of 15%. For a case with partially absorbing aerosol with an aerosol optical depth of 0.2 and single scattering albedo of 0.8, the forcing changes to 1.26 Wm-2, and the standard deviation increases to 1.21 W-2, corresponding to a significant relative standard deviation of 96%. However, the top-of-atmosphere forcing variability owing to absorption is low, with relative standard deviations of 9% clear-sky and 12% all-sky. Scaling the forcing standard deviation for a purely scattering case to match the sulfate radiative in the AeroCom Direct Effect experiment, demonstrates that host model uncertain- ties could explain about half of the overall sulfate forcing diversity of 0.13 Wm-2 in the AeroCom Direct Radiative Effect experiment. Host model errors in aerosol radiative forcing are largest in regions of uncertain host model components, such as stratocumulus cloud decks or areas with poorly constrained.

AeroCom↗
DOE OSTI2019

Force Sensing in Nanoscale: Integration of Virtual Spring for Sensing the Interactions of β-Amyloid Grabbed by Prefoldin

Analysis of atomic forces in molecular scale including the reciprocal internal force directions, quantity, and Young’s modulus, and more detailed analysis via diagrams, is one of the most current research topics. This research aims to analyze the bilateral forces applied between a nano-actuator and a cargo from a new perspective. While virtual springs have been used as a tool to convey forces in the previous steered molecular dynamics simulations, this study uses the spring as a sensor for measuring the internal forces. This study introduces atomic sensing via the steered molecular dynamics method. Following the previous studies, the protein employed in this study is the mutated Archetype Prefoldin being used to control the pathogenic cargo beta-amyloid (Alzheimer’s). The powerful Gromacs software carries out the simulations for the calculation of the total force and force for each branch. The simulation results illustrate the total force between the cargo and nano-actuator is ~ 2.8 nN, while each branch needs a force of ~ 1.2–1.5 nN to release the cargo. The results demonstrate the validity of the method and applicability of the virtual sensor for assessing the microscopic forces. This investigation is a pioneer study for the advent of the sensor as an assessment tool for the mechanical analysis and precise atomic force studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Multiple time step molecular dynamics in the optimized isokinetic ensemble steered with the molecular theory of solvation: Accelerating with advanced extrapolation of effective solvation forces

We develop efficient handling of solvation forces in the multiscale method of multiple time step molecular dynamics (MTS-MD) of a biomolecule steered by the solvation free energy (effective solvation forces) obtained from the 3D-RISM-KH molecular theory of solvation (three-dimensional reference interaction site model complemented with the Kovalenko-Hirata closure approximation). To reduce the computational expenses, we calculate the effective solvation forces acting on the biomolecule by using advanced solvation force extrapolation (ASFE) at inner time steps while converging the 3D-RISM-KH integral equations only at large outer time steps. The idea of ASFE consists in developing a discrete non-Eckart rotational transformation of atomic coordinates that minimizes the distances between the atomic positions of the biomolecule at different time moments. The effective solvation forces for the biomolecule in a current conformation at an inner time step are then extrapolated in the transformed subspace of those at outer time steps by using a modified least square fit approach applied to a relatively small number of the best force-coordinate pairs. The latter are selected from an extended set collecting the effective solvation forces obtained from 3D-RISM-KH at outer time steps over a broad time interval. The MTS-MD integration with effective solvation forces obtained by converging 3D-RISM-KH at outer time steps and applying ASFE at inner time steps is stabilized by employing the optimized isokinetic Nosé-Hoover chain (OIN) ensemble. Compared to the previous extrapolation schemes used in combination with the Langevin thermostat, the ASFE approach substantially improves the accuracy of evaluation of effective solvation forces and in combination with the OIN thermostat enables a dramatic increase of outer time steps. We demonstrate on a fully flexible model of alanine dipeptide in aqueous solution that the MTS-MD/OIN/ASFE/3D-RISM-KH multiscale method of molecular dynamics steered by effective solvation forces allows huge outer time steps up to tens of picoseconds without affecting the equilibrium and conformational properties, and thus provides a 100- to 500-fold effective speedup in comparison to conventional MD with explicit solvent. With the statistical-mechanical 3D-RISM-KH account for effective solvation forces, the method provides efficient sampling of biomolecular processes with slow and/or rare solvation events such as conformational transitions of hydrated alanine dipeptide with the mean life times ranging from 30 ps up to 10 ns for “flip-flop” conformations, and is particularly beneficial for biomolecular systems with exchange and localization of solvent and ions, ligand binding, and molecular recognition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1988

Three degree-of-freedom force feedback control for robotic mating of umbilical lines

The use of robotic manipulators for the mating and demating of umbilical fuel lines to the Space Shuttle Vehicle prior to launch is investigated. Force feedback control is necessary to minimize the contact forces which develop during mating. The objective is to develop and demonstrate a working robotic force control system. Initial experimental force control tests with an ASEA IRB-90 industrial robot using the system's Adaptive Control capabilities indicated that control stability would by a primary problem. An investigation of the ASEA system showed a 0.280 second software delay between force input commands and the output of command voltages to the servo system. This computational delay was identified as the primary cause of the instability. Tests on a second path into the ASEA's control computer using the MicroVax II supervisory computer show that time delay would be comparable, offering no stability improvement. An alternative approach was developed where the digital control system of the robot was disconnected and an analog electronic force controller was used to control the robot's servosystem directly, allowing the robot to use force feedback control while in rigid contact with a moving three-degree-of-freedom target. An alternative approach was developed where the digital control system of the robot was disconnected and an analog electronic force controller was used to control the robot's servo system directly. This method allowed the robot to use force feedback control while in rigid contact with moving three degree-of-freedom target. Tests on this approach indicated adequate force feedback control even under worst case conditions. A strategy to digitally-controlled vision system was developed. This requires switching between the digital controller when using vision control and the analog controller when using force control, depending on whether or not the mating plates are in contact.

Fullmer, R. Rees↗
NASA NTRS1993

Climate forcings and feedbacks

Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino.

Hansen, James↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effect of Hindlimb Unloading on Rat Soleus Fiber Force, Stiffness, and Calcium Sensitivity

The purpose of this study was to examine the time course of change in soleus muscle fiber peak force (N), tension (P(sub 0), kN/sq m), elastic modulus (E(sub 0)), and force-pCa and stiffness - pCa relationships. After 1, 2, or 3 wk of Hindlimb Unloading (HU), single fibers were isolated and placed between a motor arm and a transducer, and fiber diameter, peak absolute force, P(sub 0), E(sub 0), and force-pCa and stiffness-pca relationships were characterized. One week of HU resulted in a significant reduction in fiber diameter (68 +/- 2 vs. 57 +/- 1 micrometer), force (3.59 +/- 0.15 vs. 2.19 +/- 0.12 x 10(exp -4) N), P(sub 0) (102 +/- 4 vs. 85 +/- 2 kN/sq m), and E(sub 0) (1.96 +/- 0.12 vs. 1.37 +/- 0.13 X 10(exp 7) N/sq m) and 2 wk of HU caused a further decline in fiber diameter (45 +/- 1 micrometer), force (1.31 +/- 0.06 x 10(exp -4) N), and E(sub 0)(0.96 +/- 0.09 x 10(exp 7) N/sq m). Although the mean fiber diameter and absolute force continued to decline through 3 wk of HU, P(sub 0) recovered to values not significantly different from control. The P(sub 0)/E(sub 0) ratio was significantly increased after 1 (5.5 +/- 0.3 to 7.1 +/- 0.6), 2, and 3 wk of HU, and the 2-wk (9.5 +/- 0.4) and 3-wk (9.4 +/- 0.8) values were significantly greater than the 1-wk values. The force-pCa and stiffness-pCa curves were shifted right- ward after 1, 2, and 3 wk of HU. At 1 wk of HU, the Ca(2+) sensitivity of isometric force, assessed by Ca(2+) concentration required for half-maximal force, was increased from the control value of 1.83 +/- 0.12 to 2.30 +/- 0.10 micrometers. In conclusion, after HU, the decrease in soleus fiber P(sub 0) can be explained by a reduction in the number of myofibrillar cross bridges per cross-sectional area. Our working hypothesis is that the loss of contractile protein reduces the number of cross bridges per cross-sectional area and increases the filament lattice spacing. The increased spacing reduces cross-bridge force and stiffness, but P(sub 0)/E(sub 0) increases because of a quantitatively greater effect on stiffness.

McDonald Kerry S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Calculation of the Drag Force Acting on a Solid Particle Pushed by a Solid/Liquid Interface

The distribution of insoluble particles in a metal casting depends primarily on the interaction of the particles with the solid/liquid interface (SLI) during the solidification process. The balance of the forces acting on the particle essentially determines whether a particle will be engulfed or pushed by the SLI. An important component of this force balance is the drag force generated by the particle motion in front of the SLI. Previously developed mathematical models for particle/SLI interaction made use of steady-state solutions of this force provided by the lubrication theory. However, our numerical model based on the SLI tracking approach shows that the steady-state approach is inappropriate to model the interaction process and that at steady-state the theoretical solution underestimates the drag force. It was found that regression analysis of steady-state numerical solutions for cylindrical particles moving normal to a flat SLI gives a relationship of the form: Abstract The distribution of insoluble particles in a metal casting depends primarily on the interaction of the particles with the solid/liquid interface (SLI) during the solidification process. The balance of the forces acting on the particle essentially determines whether a particle will be engulfed or pushed by the SLI. An important component of this force balance is the drag force generated by the particle motion in front of the SLI. Previously developed mathematical models for particle/SLI interaction made use of steady-state solutions of this force provided by the lubrication theory. However, our numerical model based on the SLI tracking approach shows that the steady-state approach is inappropriate to model the interaction process and that at steady-state the theoretical solution underestimates the drag force. It was found that regression analysis of steady-state numerical solutions for cylindrical particles moving normal to a flat SLI gives a relationship of the form: F(sub D, sup num) =sqoare root of 3(pi)(eta)V(sub p)(R(sub p)/d)(sup 10(gamma)/3). This is to compared to the solution provided by the lubrication theory: F(sub D), sup theor) = 3 square root of 2(pi)(eta)V(sub p)(R(sub p)/d)(sub 3/2), where F(sub D) is the drag force, eta is the dynamic viscosity of the fluid, V(sub p) is the particle velocity, R(sub p) is the particle radius, gamma is Euler's constant (gamma approx. = 0.577), and d is the width of the gap between the particle and the SLI. The domain on which the equations proposed by the lubrication theory are relevant is clearly identified in the paper. The numerical model was then validated against the classical lubrication theory within the domain of its validity.

Catalina, Adrian V.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of neural network force fields for corrosion studies

To fully understand the chemistry and physics of corrosion, novel methods of simulation must be developed. One approach is designing machine learning (ML) algorithms integrated with density functional theory to develop adaptive force fields to gain insight into corrosion behavior namely at the surface of metal oxides. Current methods of modeling corrosion are slow due to the computational cost of resolving both reaction mechanics and mass transport processes. Machine learning methods can be implemented to obtain structure-activity relationships at both the molecular and bulk scale while still retaining the accuracy of density functional theory (DFT) and significantly decreasing the time needed for simulations of complex chemical processes in the various environments of corrosion. Multiscale models are needed for corrosion studies to fully understand its processes not only at the atomic length scale (chemical bonding, energies, and forces), but also at the nano and meso length scales (solid-state physics and material science processes). Current methods of study include DFT, molecular dynamics, and Monte Carlo. The limitation of DFT is that only a small number of atoms or molecules can be simulated at that level of theory. Density functional theory is used to study the electronic structure of atoms and molecules, and calculate the force component of each atom. However, these calculations are limited to about 1000 atoms. Custom periodic boundary conditions (PBC) can be used to describe the various environments and defects that affect the atomic forces to produce a large data set from which a training set can be derived. Machine learning can be utilized to overcome the barrier of modeling macroscopic and multi-scale processes from ab initio calculations through the development of adaptive force fields. Local environments determine the atomic forces of a given system, therefore adaptive force fields must be created to produce reliable quantum mechanical calculations. This can be achieved by developing a learning algorithm that uses the mapped atomic forces or fingerprint as an input to produce energies and magnetic moments as output. A systematic approach was used to begin to build a data set in order to accurately describe the atomic forces in various environments. In Figure 4 below, a simple PBC cell of Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3} was first optimized. A surface optimization was performed next, followed by a hydroxylated surface optimization. Once this calculation has converged, the adsorption of halide species to the hydroxylated surface will be investigated. TensorFlow is an open source platform for machine learning developed by Google. Using a high level application program interface (API) such as Keras allows for building and training ML models easily in a number of different environments and languages. For this project, a neural network was developed within Anaconda in Python. Future Work: Further development of reference data set; Refining neural network and learning algorithm; Fingerprinting atomic environment to enable mapping of atomic force components; Choosing appropriate training set from reference data; Learning from training set and enabling non-linear mapping of training set fingerprints and the atomic forces; Estimation of uncertainty to identify ranges of outside applicability; Testing and analysis of molecular dynamic simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cooperative control of a DNA origami force sensor

Abstract Biomolecular systems are dependent on a complex interplay of forces. Modern force spectroscopy techniques provide means of interrogating these forces, but they are not optimized for studies in constrained environments as they require attachment to micron-scale probes such as beads or cantilevers. Nanomechanical devices are a promising alternative, but this requires versatile designs that can be tuned to respond to a wide range of forces. We investigate the properties of a nanoscale force sensitive DNA origami device which is highly customizable in geometry, functionalization, and mechanical properties. The device, referred to as the NanoDyn, has a binary (open or closed) response to an applied force by undergoing a reversible structural transition. The transition force is tuned with minor alterations of 1 to 3 DNA oligonucleotides and spans tens of picoNewtons (pN). The DNA oligonucleotide design parameters also strongly influence the efficiency of resetting the initial state, with higher stability devices (≳10 pN) resetting more reliably during repeated force-loading cycles. Finally, we show the opening force is tunable in real time by adding a single DNA oligonucleotide. These results establish the potential of the NanoDyn as a versatile force sensor and provide fundamental insights into how design parameters modulate mechanical and dynamic properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in land carbon budget simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: the role of atmospheric forcing

Global estimates of the land carbon sink are often based on simulations by terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). The use of a large number of models that differ in their underlying hypotheses, structure and parameters is one way to assess the uncertainty in the historical land carbon sink. Here we show that the atmospheric forcing datasets used to drive these TBMs represent a significant source of uncertainty that is currently not systematically accounted for in land carbon cycle evaluations. We present results from three TBMs each forced with three different historical atmospheric forcing reconstructions over the period 1850–2015. We perform an analysis of variance to quantify the relative uncertainty in carbon fluxes arising from the models themselves, atmospheric forcing, and model-forcing interactions. We find that atmospheric forcing in this set of simulations plays a dominant role on uncertainties in global gross primary productivity (GPP) (75% of variability) and autotrophic respiration (90%), and a significant but reduced role on net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration (30%). Atmospheric forcing is the dominant driver (52%) of variability for the net ecosystem exchange flux, defined as the difference between GPP and respiration (both autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration). In contrast, for wildfire-driven carbon emissions model uncertainties dominate and, as a result, model uncertainties dominate for net ecosystem productivity. At regional scales, the contribution of atmospheric forcing to uncertainty shows a very heterogeneous pattern and is smaller on average than at the global scale. We find that this difference in the relative importance of forcing uncertainty between global and regional scales is related to large differences in regional model flux estimates, which partially offset each other when integrated globally, while the flux differences driven by forcing are mainly consistent across the world and therefore add up to a larger fractional contribution to global uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗