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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

A New Research Approach for Observing and Characterizing Land–Atmosphere Feedback

Forecast errors with respect to wind, temperature, moisture, clouds, and precipitation largely correspond to the limited capability of current earth system models to capture and simulate and-atmosphere feedback. To facilitate its realistic simulation in next generation models, an improved process understanding of the related complex interactions is essential. To this end, accurate 3D observations of key variables in the land-atmosphere (L-A) system with high vertical and temporal resolution from the surface to the free troposphere are indispensable. Recently, we developed a synergy of innovative ground-based, scanning active remote sensing systems for 2D to 3D measurements of wind, temperature, and water vapor from the surface to the lower troposphere that is able to provide comprehensive data sets for characterizing L-A feedback independently of any model input. Several new applications are introduced such as the mapping of surface momentum, sensible heat, and latent heat fluxes in heterogeneous terrain, the testing of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and turbulence parameterizations, the direct measurement of entrainment fluxes, and the development of new flux-gradient relationships. An experimental design taking advantage of the sensors’ synergy and advanced capabilities was realized for the first time during the Land Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE), conducted at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains site in August 2017. The scientific goals and the strategy of achieving them with the LAFE data set are introduced. We envision the initiation of innovative L-A feedback studies in different climate regions to improve weather forecast, climate, and earth system models worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Radiative feedbacks on land surface change and associated tropical precipitation shifts

Changes in land surface albedo and land surface evaporation modulate the atmospheric energy budget by changing temperatures, water vapor, clouds, snow and ice cover, and the partitioning of surface energy fluxes. Here idealized perturbations to land surface properties are imposed in a global model to understand how such forcings drive shifts in zonal mean atmospheric energy transport and zonal mean tropical precipitation. For a uniform decrease in global land albedo, the albedo forcing and a positive water vapor feedback contribute roughly equally to increased energy absorption at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while radiative changes due to the temperature and cloud cover response provide a negative feedback and energy loss at TOA. Decreasing land albedo causes a northwards shift in the zonal mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The combined effects on ITCZ location of all atmospheric feedbacks roughly cancel for the albedo forcing; the total ITCZ shift is comparable to that predicted for the albedo forcing alone. For an imposed increase in evaporative resistance that reduces land evaporation, low cloud cover decreases in the northern mid-latitudes and more energy is absorbed at TOA there; longwave loss due to warming provides a negative feedback on the TOA energy balance and ITCZ shift. Imposed changes in land albedo and evaporative resistance modulate fundamentally different aspects of the surface energy budget. However, the pattern of TOA radiation changes due to the water vapor and air temperature responses are highly correlated for these two forcings because both forcings lead to near-surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Nonlatching positive feedback enables robust bimodality by decoupling expression noise from the mean

Fundamental to biological decision-making is the ability to generate bimodal expression patterns where two alternate expression states simultaneously exist. Here in this study, we use a combination of single-cell analysis and mathematical modeling to examine the sources of bimodality in the transcriptional program controlling HIV’s fate decision between active replication and viral latency. We find that the HIV Tat protein manipulates the intrinsic toggling of HIV’s promoter, the LTR, to generate bimodal ON-OFF expression, and that transcriptional positive feedback from Tat shifts and expands the regime of LTR bimodality. This result holds for both minimal synthetic viral circuits and full-length virus. Strikingly, computational analysis indicates that the Tat circuit’s non-cooperative ‘non-latching’ feedback architecture is optimized to slow the promoter’s toggling and generate bimodality by stochastic extinction of Tat. In contrast to the standard Poisson model, theory and experiment show that non-latching positive feedback substantially dampens the inverse noise-mean relationship to maintain stochastic bimodality despite increasing mean-expression levels. Given the rapid evolution of HIV, the presence of a circuit optimized to robustly generate bimodal expression appears consistent with the hypothesis that HIV’s decision between active replication and latency provides a viral fitness advantage. More broadly, the results suggest that positive-feedback circuits may have evolved not only for signal amplification but also for robustly generating bimodality by decoupling expression fluctuations (noise) from mean expression levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A positive feedback loop involving the Spa2 SHD domain contributes to focal polarization

Focal polarization is necessary for finely arranged cell-cell interactions. The yeast mating projection, with its punctate polarisome, is a good model system for this process. We explored the critical role of the polarisome scaffold protein Spa2 during yeast mating with a hypothesis motivated by mathematical modeling and tested by in vivo experiments. Our simulations predicted that two positive feedback loops generate focal polarization, including a novel feedback pathway involving the N-terminal domain of Spa2. We characterized the latter using loss-of-function and gain-of-function mutants. The N-terminal region contains a Spa2 Homology Domain (SHD) which is conserved from yeast to humans, and when mutated largely reproduced the spa2Δ phenotype. Our work together with published data show that the SHD domain recruits Msb3/4 that stimulates Sec4-mediated transport of Bud6 to the polarisome. There, Bud6 activates Bni1-catalyzed actin cable formation, recruiting more Spa2 and completing the positive feedback loop. We demonstrate that disrupting this loop at any point results in morphological defects. Gain-of-function perturbations partially restored focal polarization in a spa2 loss-of-function mutant without restoring localization of upstream components, thus supporting the pathway order. Thus, we have collected data consistent with a novel positive feedback loop that contributes to focal polarization during pheromone-induced polarization in yeast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Feedback Control of an Azimuthal Oscillation in the E x B Discharge of Hall Thrusters

Feedback control of a low-frequency azimuthal wave known as a "rotating spoke" in the ExB discharge of a cylindrical Hall thruster was demonstrated. The rotating spoke is an m=1 azimuthal variation in density, electron temperature, and potential that rotates at about 10% of the local E x B electron rotation speed. It causes increased electron transport across the magnetic field and is suspected to be an ionization wave. Feedback control of this wave required special consideration because, although it causes a rotating azimuthal variation in the current density to the anode, it does not show up as a signal in the total thruster discharge current. Therefore, an extra source of information was needed to track the oscillation, which was addressed by using a special anode that was split azimuthally into four segments. The current to each segment oscillates as the rotating spoke passes over it, and feedback is accomplished by resistors connected in series with each anode segment which cause the voltage on a segment to decrease in proportion to the current through that segment. The feedback resulted in the disappearance of a coherent azimuthal wave and a decrease in the time-averaged total discharge current by up to 13.2%.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE) Science Plan

The Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE; pronounced “la-fey”) deploys several state-of-the-art scanning lidar and remote sensing systems to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. These instruments will augment the ARM instrument suite in order to collect a data set for studying feedback processes between the land surface and the atmosphere. The novel synergy of remote-sensing systems will be applied for simultaneous measurements of land-surface fluxes and horizontal and vertical transport processes in the atmospheric convective boundary layer (CBL). The impact of spatial inhomogeneities of the soil-vegetation continuum on land-surface-atmosphere (LSA) feedback will be studied using the scanning capability of the instrumentation. The time period of the observations is August 2017, because large differences in surface fluxes between different fields and bare soil can be observed, e.g., pastures versus fields where the wheat has already been harvested. The remote sensing system synergy will consist of three components: 1) The SGP water vapor and temperature Raman lidar (SRL), the SGP Doppler lidar (SDL), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) water vapor differential absorption lidar (DIAL) (NDIAL) mainly in vertical staring modes to measure mean profiles and gradients of moisture, temperature, and horizontal wind. They will also measure profiles of higher-order turbulent moments in the water vapor and wind fields and profiles of the latent heat flux. 2) A novel scanning lidar system synergy consisting of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High-Resolution Doppler lidar (HRDL), the University of Hohenheim (UHOH) water-vapor differential absorption lidar (UDIAL), and the UHOH temperature Raman lidar (URL). These systems will perform coordinated range-height indicator (RHI) scans from just above the canopy level to the lower troposphere, including the interfacial layer of the CBL. The optimal azimuth is to the ENE of the SGP central facility, which takes advantage of both changes in the surface elevation and different crop types planted along that path. 3) The University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center Portable Atmospheric Research Center (SPARC) and the University of Oklahoma Collaborative Lower Atmospheric Mobile Profiling System (CLAMPS) operating two vertically pointing atmospheric emitted radiance interferometers (AERIs) and two Doppler lidar (DL) systems scanning cross track to the central RHI for determining the surface friction velocity and the horizontal variability of temperature, moisture, and wind. Thus, both the variability of surface fluxes and CBL dynamics and thermodynamics over the SGP site will be studied for the first time. The combination of these three components will enable us to estimate both the divergence of the latent heat profile and the advection of moisture. Thus, the moisture budget in the SGP domain can be studied. Furthermore, the simultaneous measurements of surface and entrainment fluxes as well as the daily cycle of the CBL thermodynamic state will provide a unique data set for characterizing LSA interaction in dependence of large-scale and local conditions such as soil moisture and the state of the vegetation. The measurements will also be applied for the development of improved parameterizations of surface fluxes and turbulence in the CBL. The latter is possible because mean profiles, gradients, higher-order moments, and fluxes are measured simultaneously. The results will be used for the verification of simulations of LSA feedback in large-eddy simulation (LES) and mesoscale models, which are planned for the SGP site. Due to the strong connection between the pre-convective state of the CBL and the formation of clouds and precipitation, this new generation of experiments will strongly contribute to the improvement of their representation in weather, climate, and earth system models.

Southern Great Plains, atmospheric boundary layer,↗
DOE OSTI2016

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Model-Data Fusion Approaches for Retrospective and Predictive Assessment of the Pan-Arctic Scale Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Global Climate

Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation rely on having reliable projections of future climate change. Coupled climate-carbon models predict that the northern high latitudes will serve as a substantial land carbon sink during the 21stcentury, but these models lack many of the key processes governing high-latitude ecosystem processes. Arctic tundra and boreal forests are unique from other biomes particularly because of the presence of snow, ice and frozen ground, and it is important to understand the mechanisms that drive interconnected processes in these landscapes. Increasing our confidence in climate projections requires an integrated approach where existing, on-going and planned observational and experimental studies of high-latitude ecosystem processes are organized and analyzed in a framework designed to target improvements in understanding key ecosystem-climate feedbacks. For this project we designed an approach to improve our scientific understanding of the permafrost carbon feedback through broad-scale assessment of the drivers and responses of the Arctic system carbon cycle using data-driven models of simple-to-intermediate complexity. The made a valuable contribution to the first of its kind, data-driven quantitative assessment of the impact of permafrost thaw on pan-Arctic scale carbon cycle feedbacks to the global climate system. The approach drew on a conceptual framework for integrating the key system components and their underlying data within a “book-keeping” framework for assessment of the key processes driving the permafrost carbon feedback. The results provided quantitative model-data benchmarking to constrain future projections of carbon cycle responses to a warming Arctic. The framework used environmental proxy data sets examining recent-era geomorphologic land-form transitions and vegetation dynamics, through remotely-sensed data, to guide the extrapolation of site-based data on the key system components to larger regions. These products contribute to the development of finer-scale, more complex representation of permafrost carbon processes in terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to operate within coupled Earth system modeling frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding and Constraining the Midlatitude Cloud Optical Depth Feedback in Climate Models (Final Report)

The objectives of this investigation are to provide a deeper understanding of the brightening of middle and high latitude clouds that occurs in many climate models as the climate warms, and to better understand why models give varying estimates of the strength of this negative feedback. The investigation may also provide new information on why models are deficient in their simulation of the present day clouds in these regions. The analysis will reveal which models simulate current clouds most realistically in the regions of interest, and relate this to the strength of the cloud feedbacks in the models. This will improve the uncertainty quantification of climate simulations and will provide theoretical understanding potentially leading to increased reliability of climate change projections. This will enhance the predictive understanding of the Earth system by analyzing the natural and anthropogenic components of global climate change in models. The primary methods involve the study of the clouds in the suite of CMIP5 model climate simulations and comparison of clouds in climate simulations with data from satellite measurement systems, with a particular emphasis on mixed-phase cloud physics, for which ice and water are present simultaneously. State-of-the-art climate model feedback analysis will be combined with new and more comprehensive observations of clouds available from modern measurement systems. Novel use of model simulations in combination with observations enables a deeper understanding of the role of clouds in climate change. Metrics that facilitate model-to-model and model-to-observation comparisons related to mixed-phase cloud physics will be developed and used to highlight challenges and opportunities for improving the state-of-the-science models. This investigation is a collaboration between the University of Washington, where the data work is concentrated and LLNL where the model data and the tools and expertise to do cloud feedback analysis are located. The grant supported the work of 3 different graduate students at different times (McCoy, Wall and Berry) Post-doctoral researcher Blaž Gasparini was also partially supported on this grant and led our collaboration with PNNL scientists. PNNL scientists also collaborated in the work of graduate student Wall (Po-Lun Ma). The main results of our research efforts are reported in 6 papers and 1 book chapter that were supported by this grant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feedback Control Strategy for Transient Stability Application

Power systems are subjected to a wide range of disturbances during daily operations. Severe disturbances, such as a loss of a large generator, a three-phase bolted fault on a generator bus, or a loss of a transmission line, can lead to the loss of synchronism of a generator or group of generators. The ability of a power system to maintain synchronism during the few seconds after being subjected to a severe disturbance is known as transient stability. Most of the modern methods of controlling transient stability involve special protection schemes or remedial action schemes. These special protection schemes sense predetermined system conditions and take corrective actions, such as generator tripping or generation re-dispatch, in real time to maintain transient stability. Another method is the use of a real-time feedback control system to modulate the output of an actuator in response to a signal. This paper provides a fundamental evaluation of the use of feedback control strategies to improve transient stability in a power system. An optimal feedback control strategy that modulates the real power injected and absorbed by distributed energy-storage devices is proposed. Its performance is evaluated on a four-machine power system and on a 34-machine reduced-order model of the Western North American Power System. The result shows that the feedback control strategy can increase the critical fault clearing time by 60%, thereby improving the transient stability of the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Constraining AGN feedback in massive ellipticals with south pole telescope measurements of the thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect

Energetic feedback due to active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is likely to play an important role in the observed anti-hierarchical trend in the evolution of galaxies, and yet the energy injected into the circumgalactic medium by this process is largely unknown. One promising approach to constrain this feedback is through measurements of spectral distortions in the cosmic microwave background due to the thermal Sunyaev–Zeldovich (tSZ) effect, whose magnitude is directly proportional to the energy input by AGNs. With current instruments, making such measurements requires stacking large numbers of objects to increase signal-to-noise. While one possible target for such stacks is AGNs themselves, these are relatively scarce sources that contain contaminating emission that complicates tSZ measurements. Here we adopt an alternative approach and co-add South Pole Telescope SZ (SPT-SZ) survey data around a large set of massive quiescent elliptical galaxies at z⩾0.5, which are much more numerous and less contaminated than active AGNs, yet are subject to the same feedback processes from the AGNs they hosted in the past. We use data from the Blanco Cosmology Survey and VISTA Hemisphere Survey to create a large catalog of galaxies split up into two redshift bins: one with 3394 galaxies at 0.5⩽z⩽1.0 and one with 924 galaxies at 1.0⩽z⩽1.5, with typical stellar masses of 1.5×10{sup 11}M{sub ⊙}. We then co-add the emission around these galaxies, resulting in a measured tSZ signal at 2.2σ significance for the lower redshift bin and a contaminating signal at 1.1σ for the higher redshift bin. To remove contamination due to dust emission, we use SPT-SZ source counts to model a contaminant source population in both the SPT-SZ bands and Planck high-frequency bands for a subset of 937 galaxies in the low-redshift bin and 240 galaxies in the high-redshift bin. This increases our detection to 3.6σ for low redshifts and 0.9σ for high redshifts. We find the mean angularly integrated Compton-y values to be 2.2{sub −0.7}{sup +0.9}×10{sup −7} Mpc{sup 2} for low redshifts and 1.7{sub −1.8}{sup +2.2}×10{sup −7} Mpc{sup 2} for high redshifts, corresponding to total thermal energies of 7.6{sub −2.3}{sup +3.0}×10{sup 60} erg and 6.0{sub −6.3}{sup +7.7}×10{sup 60} erg, respectively. These numbers are higher than expected from simple theoretical models that do not include AGN feedback, and serve as constraints that can be applied to current simulations of massive galaxy formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Pairing of Accreting Massive Black Holes in Multiphase Circumnuclear Disks: the Interplay Between Radiative Cooling, Star Formation, and Feedback Processes

We study the orbital decay of a pair of massive black holes (BHs) with masses 5×10{sup 5} and 10{sup 7} M{sub ⊙}, using hydrodynamical simulations of circumnuclear disks (CNDs) with the alternating presence of sub-grid physics, such as radiative cooling, star formation, supernova feedback, BH accretion, and BH feedback. In the absence of such processes, the orbit of the secondary BH decays over timescales of ∼10 Myr to the center of the CND, where the primary BH resides. When strong dissipation operates in CNDs, fragmentation into massive objects the size of giant molecular clouds with densities in the range 10{sup 4}–10{sup 7} amu cm{sup −3} occurs, causing stochastic torques and hits that can eject the secondary BH from the midplane. Outside the plane, the low-density medium provides only weak drag, and the BH return is governed by inefficient dynamical friction. In rare cases, clump–BH interactions can lead to a faster decay. Feedback processes lead to outflows, but do not significantly change the overall density of the CND midplane. However, with a spherically distributed BH feedback, a hot bubble is generated behind the secondary, which almost shuts off dynamical friction. We dub this phenomenon “wake evacuation.” It leads to delays in the decay, possibly of ∼0.3 Gyr. We discuss the non-trivial implications on the discovery space of the eLISA telescope. Our results suggest that the largest uncertainty in predicting BH merger rates lies in the potentially wide variety of galaxy host systems, with different degrees of gas dissipation and heating, yielding decay timescales from ∼10 to ∼300 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Growth of First Galaxies: Impacts of Star Formation and Stellar Feedback

Recent observations have detected galaxies at high-redshift z∼6--11, and revealed the diversity of their physical properties, from normal star-forming galaxies to starburst galaxies. To understand the properties of these observed galaxies, it is crucial to understand the star formation (SF) history of high-redshift galaxies under the influence of stellar feedback. In this work, we present the results of cosmological hydrodynamic simulations with zoom-in initial conditions, and investigate the formation of the first galaxies and their evolution toward observable galaxies at z∼6. We focus on three different galaxies that end up in halos with masses M{sub h}=2.4×10{sup 10} h{sup −1} M{sub ⊙} (Halo-10), 1.6×10{sup 11} h{sup −1} M{sub ⊙} (Halo-11), and 0.7×10{sup 12} h{sup −1} M{sub ⊙} (Halo-12) at z = 6. Our simulations also probe the impacts of different subgrid assumptions, i.e., SF efficiency and cosmic reionization, on SF histories in the first galaxies. We find that SF occurs intermittently due to supernova (SN) feedback at z≳10, and then it proceeds more smoothly as the halo mass grows at lower redshifts. Galactic disks are destroyed due to SN feedback, while galaxies in simulations with no feedback or lower SF efficiency models can sustain a galactic disk for long periods ≳10 Myr. The expulsion of gas at the galactic center also affects the inner dark matter density profile for a short period. Our simulated galaxies in Halo-11 and Halo-12 reproduce the SF rates and stellar masses of observed Lyα emitters at z∼7--8 fairly well given the observational uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proton Acceleration in Low- β Magnetic Reconnection with Energetic Particle Feedback

Magnetic reconnection regions in space and astrophysics are known as active particle acceleration sites. There is ample evidence showing that energetic particles can take a substantial amount of converted energy during magnetic reconnection. However, there has been a lack of studies understanding the backreaction of energetic particles at magnetohydrodynamical scales in magnetic reconnection. To address this, we have developed a new computational method to explore the feedback by nonthermal energetic particles. This approach considers the backreaction from these energetic particles by incorporating their pressure into magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) equations. The pressure of the energetic particles is evaluated from their distribution evolved through Parker's transport equation, solved using stochastic differential equations (SDEs), so we coin the name MHD-SDE. Applying this method to low-β magnetic reconnection simulations, we find that reconnection is capable of accelerating a large fraction of energetic particles that contain a substantial amount of energy. When the feedback from these particles is included, their pressure suppresses the compression structures generated by magnetic reconnection, thereby mediating particle energization. Consequently, the feedback from energetic particles results in a steeper power-law energy spectrum. These findings suggest that feedback from nonthermal energetic particles plays a crucial role in magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way–mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with cold dark matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way–mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark-matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all of the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

Garcia, Alex M. [University of Virginia, Charlotte↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological drivers of the low-cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty

The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks between transient and long-term simulations, and past work shows that is primarily attributed to changes in the marine low-cloud radiative feedback. Here we use low cloud meteorological kernels to map out both the primary cloud controlling factors through which changing surface temperature patterns drive changes in low-cloud feedback, as well as the sources of model spread. We find that the pattern effect is almost entirely driven by changes in estimated inversion strength (EIS) in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the South East Pacific and Southern Ocean. In both past and future simulations, inter-model spread is primarily caused by model differences in the sensitivity of low clouds to the environmental conditions, rather than differences in the simulated evolution of environmental conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system

Abstract. The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human–natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions

Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely to offset increased vegetation C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL) terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback may act as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedback may be difficult. The formation of talik, a subsurface layer of perennially thawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration, ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems from long-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understand and characterize mechanistic links between talik, permafrost thaw, and respiration of deep soil C to detect and quantify the permafrost C feedback. Here, we use the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, a permafrost and biogeochemistry model, in comparison to long-term deep borehole data along North American and Siberian transects, to investigate thaw-driven C sources in NHL (> 55∘ N) from 2000 to 2300. Widespread talik at depth is projected across most of the NHL permafrost region (14 million km2) by 2300, 6.2 million km2 of which is projected to become a long-term C source, emitting 10 Pg C by 2100, 50 Pg C by 2200, and 120 Pg C by 2300, with few signs of slowing. Roughly half of the projected C source region is in predominantly warm sub-Arctic permafrost following talik onset. This region emits only 20 Pg C by 2300, but the CLM4.5 estimate may be biased low by not accounting for deep C in yedoma. Accelerated decomposition of deep soil C following talik onset shifts the ecosystem C balance away from surface dominant processes (photosynthesis and litter respiration), but sink-to-source transition dates are delayed by 20–200 years by high ecosystem productivity, such that talik peaks early (∼ 2050s, although borehole data suggest sooner) and C source transition peaks late (∼ 2150–2200). The remaining C source region in cold northern Arctic permafrost, which shifts to a net source early (late 21st century), emits 5 times more C (95 Pg C) by 2300, and prior to talik formation due to the high decomposition rates of shallow, young C in organic-rich soils coupled with low productivity. Our results provide important clues signaling imminent talik onset and C source transition, including (1) late cold-season (January–February) soil warming at depth (∼ 2 m), (2) increasing cold-season emissions (November–April), and (3) enhanced respiration of deep, old C in warm permafrost and young, shallow C in organic-rich cold permafrost soils. Our results suggest a mosaic of processes that govern carbon source-to-sink transitions at high latitudes and emphasize the urgency of monitoring soil thermal profiles, organic C age and content, cold-season CO2 emissions, and atmospheric 14CO2 as key indicators of the permafrost C feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗