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At least 325 records · Page 18

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainty of Videogrammetric Techniques used for Aerodynamic Testing

The uncertainty of videogrammetric techniques used for the measurement of static aeroelastic wind tunnel model deformation and wind tunnel model pitch angle is discussed. Sensitivity analyses and geometrical considerations of uncertainty are augmented by analyses of experimental data in which videogrammetric angle measurements were taken simultaneously with precision servo accelerometers corrected for dynamics. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) to examine error dependence on angle of attack, sensor used (inertial or optical). and on tunnel state variables such as Mach number is presented. Experimental comparisons with a high-accuracy indexing table are presented. Small roll angles are found to introduce a zero-shift in the measured angles. It is shown experimentally that. provided the proper constraints necessary for a solution are met, a single- camera solution can he comparable to a 2-camera intersection result. The relative immunity of optical techniques to dynamics is illustrated.

Burner, A. W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning methods for probabilistic locked-mode predictors in tokamak plasmas

A rotating tokamak plasma can interact resonantly with the external helical magnetic perturbations, also known as error fields. This can lead to locking and then to disruptions. We leverage machine learning (ML) methods to predict the locking events. We use a coupled third-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation model to represent the interaction of the magnetic perturbation and the plasma rotation with the error field. This model is sufficient to describe qualitatively the locking and unlocking bifurcations. Here, we explore using ML algorithms with the simulation data and experimental data, focusing on the methods that can be used with sparse datasets. These methods lead to the possibility of the avoidance of locking in real-time operations. We describe the operational space in terms of two control parameters: the magnitude of the error field and the rotation frequency associated with the momentum source that maintains the plasma rotation. The outcomes are quan- tified by order parameters that completely characterize the state, whether locked or unlocked. We use unsupervised ML methods to classify locked/unlocked states and note the usefulness of a certain normalization of the order parameters. Three supervised ML classifiers are used in suite to estimate the probability of locking in the region of control parameter space with hysteresis, i.e., the set of control parameters for which both locked and unlocked states can exist. The results show that a neural network gives the best estimate of the locking probability. An analogy of the present locking model with the van der Waals equation of state is also provided.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

A comparison between theoretical prediction and experimental measurement of the dynamic behavior of spur gears

A comparison was made between computer model predictions of gear dynamics behavior and experimental results. The experimental data were derived from the NASA gear noise rig, which was used to record dynamic tooth loads and vibration. The experimental results were compared with predictions from the DSTO Aeronautical Research Laboratory's gear dynamics code for a matrix of 28 load speed points. At high torque the peak dynamic load predictions agree with the experimental results with an average error of 5 percent in the speed range 800 to 6000 rpm. Tooth separation (or bounce), which was observed in the experimental data for light torque, high speed conditions, was simulated by the computer model. The model was also successful in simulating the degree of load sharing between gear teeth in the multiple tooth contact region.

Rebbechi, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2010

Quantification of the Uncertainties for the Ares I A106 Ascent Aerodynamic Database

A detailed description of the quantification of uncertainties for the Ares I ascent aero 6-DOF wind tunnel database is presented. The database was constructed from wind tunnel test data and CFD results. The experimental data came from tests conducted in the Boeing Polysonic Wind Tunnel in St. Louis and the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. The major sources of error for this database were: experimental error (repeatability), database modeling errors, and database interpolation errors.

Houlden, Heather P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Supersonic Retropropulsion Experimental Results from the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

A new supersonic retropropulsion experimental effort, intended to provide code validation data, was recently completed in the Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Test Section 2 over the Mach number range from 2.4 to 4.6. The experimental model was designed using insights gained from pre-test computations, which were instrumental for sizing and refining the model to minimize tunnel wall interference and internal flow separation concerns. A 5-in diameter 70-deg sphere-cone forebody with a roughly 10-in long cylindrical aftbody was the baseline configuration selected for this study. The forebody was designed to accommodate up to four 4:1 area ratio supersonic nozzles. Primary measurements for this model were a large number of surface pressures on the forebody and aftbody. Supplemental data included high-speed Schlieren video and internal pressures and temperatures. The run matrix was developed to allow for the quantification of various sources of experimental uncertainty, such as random errors due to run-to-run variations and bias errors due to flow field or model misalignments. Preliminary results and observations from the test are presented, while detailed data and uncertainty analyses are ongoing.

Berry, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Low Reynolds Number Nozzle Flow Study

An experimental study of low Reynolds number nozzle flow was performed. A brief comparison was made between some of the experimental performance data and performance predicted by a viscous flow code. The performance of 15, 20, and 25 deg conical nozzles, bell nozzles, and trumpet nozzles was evaluated with unheated nitrogen and hydrogen. The numerical analysis was applied to the conical nozzles only, using an existing viscous flow code that was based on a slender-channel approximation. Although the trumpet and 25 deg conical nozzles had slightly better performance at lower Reynolds numbers, it is unclear which nozzle is superior as all fell within the experimental error band. The numerical rssults were found to agree with experimental results for nitrogen and for some of the hydrogen data. Some code modification is recommended to improve confidence in the performance prediction.

Whalen, Margaret V.↗

NASA NTRS1981

An analysis of haze effects on LANDSAT multispectral scanner data

Early season changes in optical depth change brightness, primarily along the soil line; and during crop development, changes in optical depth change both greenness and brightness. Thus, the existence of haze in the imagery could cause an unsuspecting analyst to interpret the spectral appearance as indicating an episodal event when, in fact, haze was present. The techniques for converting LANDSAT-3 data to simulate LANDSAT-2 data are in error. The yellowness and none such computations are affected primarily. Yellowness appears well correlated to optical depth. Experimental evidence with variable background and variable optical depth is needed, however. The variance of picture elements within a spring wheat field is related to its equivalent in optical depth changes caused by haze. This establishes the sensitivity of channel 1 (greenness) pixels to changes in haze levels. The between field picture element means and variances were determined for the spring wheat fields. This shows the variability of channel data on two specific dates, emphasizing that crop development can be influenced by many factors. The atmospheric correction program ATCOR reduces segment data from LANDSAT acquisitions to a common haze level and improves the results of analysis.

Johnson, W. R.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Possible variation of the gravitational constant over the elements.

We re-examine the theory and data of the Kreuzer experiment to measure the relative difference in the gravitational constant between two elements. Significant errors appear in the statistical analysis of Kreuzer which vitiate his conclusions. The upper bound for the relative difference of F and Br from his experimental data correctly becomes .02, about 10 times the limit already set on the general variation of the gravitational constant over the elements by direct use of a Cavendish balance.

Gilvarry, J. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Monte Carlo Framework for Jet-Quenching

This article presents the motivation for developing a comprehensive modeling framework in which different models and parameter inputs can be compared and evaluated for a large range of jet-quenching observables measured in relativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and the LHC. Here, the concept of a framework is discussed within the context of recent efforts by the JET Collaboration, the authors of JEWEL, and the JETSCAPE collaborations. The framework ingredients for each of these approaches is presented with a sample of important results from each. The role of advanced statistical tools in comparing models to data is also discussed, along with the need for a more detailed accounting of correlated errors in experimental results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1972

Pattern recognition systems and procedures

The objectives of the pattern recognition tasks are to develop (1) a man-machine interactive data processing system; and (2) procedures to determine effective features as a function of time for crops and soils. The signal analysis and dissemination equipment, SADE, is being developed as a man-machine interactive data processing system. SADE will provide imagery and multi-channel analog tape inputs for digitation and a color display of the data. SADE is an essential tool to aid in the investigation to determine useful features as a function of time for crops and soils. Four related studies are: (1) reliability of the multivariate Gaussian assumption; (2) usefulness of transforming features with regard to the classifier probability of error; (3) advantage of selecting quantizer parameters to minimize the classifier probability of error; and (4) advantage of using contextual data. The study of transformation of variables (features), especially those experimental studies which can be completed with the SADE system, will be done.

Nelson, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A control theoretic model for piloted approach to landing.

Using manned vehicle systems analysis, a model for manual approach to landing is developed. This model is developed and applied in the specific context of a problem of analytical evaluation of a pictorial display for longitudinal control of glide path errors. This makes it possible to discuss the model in concrete terms, and the availability of experimental data provides opportunities for checking the theoretical results obtained.

Kleinman, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Scale-model charge-transfer technique for measuring enhancement factors

Determination of aircraft electric field enhancement factors is crucial when using airborne field mill (ABFM) systems to accurately measure electric fields aloft. SRI used the scale model charge transfer technique to determine enhancement factors of several canonical shapes and a scale model Learjet 36A. The measured values for the canonical shapes agreed with known analytic solutions within about 6 percent. The laboratory determined enhancement factors for the aircraft were compared with those derived from in-flight data gathered by a Learjet 36A outfitted with eight field mills. The values agreed to within experimental error (approx. 15 percent).

Kositsky, J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Observing System Simulation Experiments: An Overview

An overview of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) will be given, with focus on calibration and validation of OSSE frameworks. Pitfalls and practice will be discussed, including observation error characteristics, incestuousness, and experimental design. The potential use of OSSEs for investigation of the behaviour of data assimilation systems will be explored, including some results from experiments using the NASAGMAO OSSE.

OSSE↗

NASA NTRS2016

Observing System Simulation Experiments: An Overview

OSSE↗

NASA NTRS2017

Pilot Wave Model for Impulsive Thrust from RF Test Device Measured in Vacuum

A physics model is developed in detail and its place in the taxonomy of ideas about the nature of the quantum vacuum is discussed. The experimental results from the recently completed vacuum test campaign evaluating the impulsive thrust performance of a tapered RF test article excited in the TM212 mode at 1,937 megahertz (MHz) are summarized. The empirical data from this campaign is compared to the predictions from the physics model tools. A discussion is provided to further elaborate on the possible implications of the proposed model if it is physically valid. Based on the correlation of analysis prediction with experimental data collected, it is proposed that the observed anomalous thrust forces are real, not due to experimental error, and are due to a new type of interaction with quantum vacuum fluctuations.

White, Harold↗