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The burst-b distance between two binary vectors is defined and shown to be a metric. This definition is applied to a binary-input, Q-ary output channel where errors occur in bursts. A decoding algorithm is presented for such a channel that is an extension of Weldon's (1971) weighted erasure decoding. Examples are presented illustrating the techniques.
In this work the mathematical and probabilistic background of standard linear estimation techniques used in geodesy is clarified, and their interrelationship is revealed with the help of best approximation theory and the normal equations. Emphasis is given to the separation of the deterministic solution to the approximation problem from the probabilistic justification of the metric of the approximation. Least squares prediction has been related to deterministic (exact) collocation, and minimum error bound has been identified as a prediction optimality criterion in the latter. Criteria for the optimal choice of norm in Hilbert space collocation are proposed for gravimetric geodesy problems.
Future plans for planetary exploration currently include using multiple spacecraft to simultaneously explore one planet. This never before encountered situation places new demands on tracking systems used to support navigation. One possible solution to the problem of heavy ground resource conflicts is the use of multispacecraft coherent radio metric data, also known as, bent-pipe data. Analysis of the information content of these data types show that the information content of multi-spacecraft Doppler is dependent only on the frequency of the final downlink leg and is independent of the frequencies used on other legs. Numerical analysis shows that coherent bent-pipe data can provide significantly better capability to estimate the location of a lander on the surface of Mars than can direct lander to Earth radio metric data. However, this is complicated by difficulties in separating the effect of a lander position error from that of an orbiter position error for single passes of data.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on ISS have typically averaged 2.3 to 5.3mm Hg, with large fluctuations occurring over periods of hours and days. CO2 has effects on cerebral vascular tone, resulting in vasodilation and alteration of cerebral blood flow(CBF). Increased CBF leads to elevated intracranial pressure(ICP), which is a factor leading to visual disturbance, headaches, and other central nervous system symptoms. Ultrasound of the optic nerve provides a surrogate measurement of ICP. Inflight ultrasounds were implemented as an enhanced screening tool for the Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) Syndrome. This analysis examines the relationships between ambient CO2 levels on ISS and ultrasound measures of the eye in an effort to understand how CO2 may be associated with VIIP and to inform future analysis of inflight VIIP data. Results as shown in Figure2, there was a large timeframe where CO2 readings were removed due to sensor fault errors(see Limitations), from June 2011 to January 2012. After extensive cleaning of the CO2 data, metrics for all of the data were calculated (Table2). Preliminary analyses showed possible associations between variability measures of CO2 and AP diameter (Figure3),and average CO2 exposure and ONSD(Figure4). Adjustments for multiple comparisons were not made due to the exploratory nature of the analysis.
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) will be supervising a harbor deepening project in Port Everglades, Florida. The project raises concerns about potential impacts on the nearby Florida reef tract through increased turbidity and sediment from the dredging. To better understand these potential impacts, the NASA DEVELOP team created an interactive Google Earth Engine tool to help establish a historical baseline of water quality parameters and assist monitoring these parameters more frequently than traditional sampling. This Seaport & Harbor Area Resource Quality (SHARQ) tool incorporates remotely sensed data from Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper+, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. It allows users to view true color images and calculate water quality parameters, like turbidity and chlorophyll-a, for any given study area and time period from 1984 onward. The SHARQ tool also generate time series charts, allowing users to interpret changes in water quality over a given time range. The accuracy of the remotely sensed water quality parameter algorithms was determined using in situ data to calculate percent difference and root mean square error values (RMSE), which ranged from 0.32 to 0.58 error between sites. Using the SHARQ tool’s time series analysis feature, a baseline average turbidity metric of ~6.8 FNUs provides a historical baseline average for turbidity between September 2000 and 2020 and can assist in future decision-making for determining thresholds for turbidity.
A novel image moment-based model for shape estimation and tracking of an extended target moving with a complex trajectory is presented. The proposed extended object tracking algorithm is based on multiple noisy measurement points sampled from the target at each time step. The shape of the object, approximated by an ellipse, is estimated using a combination of image moments. Dynamic models of image moments for constant velocity and coordinated turn motions are mathematically derived. An unscented Kalman filter - interacting multiple model (UKF-IMM) method is used to track the object and estimate its shape. A likelihood function based on average log-likelihood is derived for the IMM filter. Simulation results of the proposed UKF-IMM algorithm with the image momentbased models are presented that show the estimation of the shape of the object moving in a complex trajectory. The intersection over union (IoU), and the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the position and velocity of the centroid of the ellipse are used as metrics. The comparison results of the proposed algorithm with a benchmark algorithm from literature based on the IoU and RMSE metrics are presented.
Since the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) was successfully launched in 2010, the GOCI Yonsei aerosol retrieval (YAER) algorithm has been continuously updated to retrieve hourly aerosol optical properties. GOCI-II has 4 more channels including UV, finer spatial resolution (250 m), and daily full disk coverage as compared to GOCI, and was launched in February 2020, onboard the GEO-KOMPSAT-2B (GK-2B) satellite. In this study, we extended the YAER algorithm to GOCI-II data based on its improved performance in many aspects and present the first results of aerosol optical properties retrieved from GOCI-II data. Utilizing the overlapping period between the GOCI-II and GOCI in geostationary Earth orbit, we present GOCI-II aerosol retrievals for high aerosol-loading cases over East Asia and show that these have a consistent spatial distribution with those from GOCI. Furthermore, GOCI-II provides AOD at an even higher spatial resolution, revealing finer changes in aerosol concentrations. Validation results for one year data show that the GOCI-II AOD has a correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a ratio within the expected error (EE) of 59.4 % when compared with the aerosol robotic network (AERONET) data. We compared statistical metrics for the GOCI and GOCI-II AODs to assess the consistency between the two datasets. In addition, it was found that there is a strong correlation between the two datasets from the comparison of gridded GOCI and GOCI-II AOD products. It is expected that data from GOCI-II will continue long-term aerosol records with high accuracy that can be used to address air-quality issues over East Asia.
In this paper, robust optimization is performed on trajectory correction maneuvers during the lunar lander return phase of an Artemis mission, treating the trajectory from one hour after low lunar orbit departure to arrival in the vicinity of the lunar Gateway as a relative motion problem. To enable rapid stochastic optimization techniques requiring many candidate trajectories, SPICE kernel relative motion as implemented by the Quadratic Interpolated State Transition (QIST) system is used as the underlying dynamics propagation. The optimization is performed with a genetic optimizer using linear covariance (LinCov) software in a simplified operational context, taking into account the availability of navigation sensors with varying measurement models, ranges, and accuracies. No numerical integration is used, since the relative motion around Gateway is fully characterized with the a priori computation of the QIST coefficients. Maneuver placements are computed to optimize the minimum 3σ delta-v of the trajectory, the position dispersion at a target point, and a convex combination of these two metrics. An order of magnitude runtime improvement is provided over legacy methods with less than 10% error introduced. All QIST results are shown to be in-family with legacy methods. The tradespace for optimal delta-v design is found to range from 77.0 to 93.9 m/s, while the range of optimal dispersion is between 1.4 and 11.7 km.
An observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) was performed to assess the impact of assimilating hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from geostationary orbit on numerical weather prediction, with a focus on the proposed sounder on board the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program’s central satellite. Infrared sounders on a geostationary platform would fill several gaps left by IR sounders on polar-orbiting satellites, and the increased temporal resolution would allow the observation of weather phenomena evolution. The framework for this OSSE was the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) OSSE system, which includes a full suite of meteorological observations. The experiment additionally assimilated four identical IR sounders from geostationary orbit to create a “ring” of vertical profiling observations. Based on the experimentation, assimilation of the IR sounders provided a beneficial impact on the analyzed mass and wind fields, particularly in the tropics, and produced an error reduction in the initial 24–48 h of the subsequent forecasts. Specific attention was paid to the impact of the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) as this is a region that is well-observed and as such difficult to improve. The forecast sensitivity to observation impact (FSOI) metric, computed across all four synoptic times over the CONUS, reveals that the GXS had the largest impact on the 24-h forecast error of the assimilated hyperspectral infrared satellite radiances as measured using a moist energy error norm. Based on this analysis, the proposed GXS has the potential to improve numerical weather prediction globally and over the CONUS.
The concept of Cloud Regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating for each gridcell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product (long-term average total cloud amount [TCA]), cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our findings support previous studies showing that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite their shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP as if they were another model output. Lastly, cloud simulation performance is contrasted with each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter.
Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.
This presentation reviews non-auditory effects of noise relevant to habitable volume requirements in cislunar space. The non-auditory effects of noise in future long-term space habitats are likely to be impactful on team and individual performance, sleep, and cognitive well-being. Recommendations are provided for future standards and procedures for long-term space flight habitats, along with recommendations for NASA's Human Research Program in support of DST mission success. The following non-auditory effects of noise are addressed: performance-teamwork; sleep disturbance; and cognitive well-being, all of which impact crew performance and readiness to perform. It reviews the relevance of research performed on earth to the space environment, the quality of the measurement metrics used, and potentially significant research gaps. Auditory effects of noise are considered to the degree that measurement metrics overlap with non-auditory effects.
In this work, we present EPIsembleVis, a web-based comparative visual analysis tool for evaluating the consistency of multiple COVID-19 prediction models. Our approach analyzes a collection of COVID-19 predictions from different epidemiological models as an ensemble and utilizes two metrics to quantify model performance. These metrics include (a) prediction uncertainty (represented as the dispersion of predictions in each ensemble) and (b) prediction error (calculated by comparing individual model predictions with the recorded data). Through an interactive visual interface, our approach provides a data-driven workflow for (a) selecting and constructing the COVID-19 model prediction ensemble based on the spatiotemporal overlap of available predictions of multiple epidemiological models, (b) quantifying the model performance using both the uncertainty of each model prediction ensemble, and the error of each ensemble member that represents individual model predictions, and (c) visualizing the spatiotemporal variability in the projection performance of individual models using a suite of novel ensemble visualization techniques, such as the data availability map, a spatiotemporal textured-tile calendar, multivariate rose chart, and time-series leaflet glyph. We demonstrate the capability of our ensemble visual interface through a case study that investigates the performance of weekly COVID-19 predictions, which are provided through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence [47] for the United States and United States Territories. The EPIsembleVis tool is implemented using open-source web technologies and adaptive system design, rendering it interoperable with Elasticsearch and Kibana for automatically ingesting COVID-19 predictions from online repositories, and it is generalizable for analyzing worldwide projections from more epidemiological models.
The so-called NASA "Yardstick" design concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope presents unique challenges for systems-level analysis. Simulations that integrate controls, optics, thermal, and structural models are required to evaluate baseline performance, study design sensitivities, and perform design optimization. An integrated modeling approach was chosen using a combination of commercial off-the-shelf and "in-house" developed codes. The resulting capability provides a foundation for linear and non-linear analysis, using both the time and frequency-domain methods. It readily allows various combinations of design parameters and environmental loads to be evaluated directly in terms of key science-related metrics, in this case the scalar RMS (root mean square) line-of-sight and RMS wavefront errors. This presentation first addresses the development of the component, or discipline, models for the Yardstick design. It will then proceed to present the integration of the component models, using linear-systems approaches, in order to support two of the most critical baseline performance analyses: jitter and thermal-elastic stability of the optical telescope assembly (OTA). The results of the jitter analysis indicate that disturbances from the reaction wheels coupled with the lightly-damped and highly-flexible structure present significant challenges to the baseline line-of-sight control architecture. Vibration isolation will be required to meet jitter error requirements. The results of the thermal-elastic analysis indicate that the mirror segment displacements due to ground-to-orbit cool-down of the telescope are within the expected capture range of the segment rigid-body control actuators. This means we will be able to align and phase the primary mirror. However, the results for the analysis of the thermal transient response following an attitude maneuver (slew) show that this telescope design is not sufficiently stable, passively, to meet the wavefront error requirements. Structural re-design is one possibility; alternatively, active thermal control of the OTA may be considered. The Yardstick integrated models were successfully used to demonstrate the feasibility of two thermal control strategies.
Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.
Fundamental characteristics of design, calibration, and application of three-component moment balances are investigated in great detail. These balances are typically used to determine loads on control surfaces, canards, or other parts that are attached to a wind tunnel model. First, three different descriptions of the load state of a moment balance are reviewed. Then, load transformations between different load formats and the combined load diagram for two of the three load components are discussed. An error analysis showed that it is critical to maximize the product of the distance between the bending moment gages and their sensitivities in order to minimize the overall error in the normal force prediction. In addition, it is important to apply a sufficient number of calibration loadings near the first bending moment gage. Then, unwanted near-linear dependencies between the two bending moment gage outputs can be avoided. The error in the bending moment prediction is also investigated that results from the elastic deformation of the metric part of the balance under load. Finally, the application of the Non-Iterative Method to three-component moment balance calibration data is described in order to obtain regression models that can be used to predict loads from measured outputs during a wind tunnel test.
The Mars 2020 Perseverance rover successfully landed at Jezero Crater on February 18, 2021. To perform this feat, the entry, descent, and landing navigation filter must be initialized with an estimate of the spacecraft state, which includes attitude from the cruise attitude control subsystem. Accuracy of this initial attitude estimate has an impact on important metrics such as touchdown velocity. This paper presents a post-landing reconstruction of the attitude initialization error budget, showing that the requirement of 0.15 deg ($3\sigma$, per axis) was met. Each error source is described and analyzed, including flight telemetry where possible. Analysis of the error budget shows that it is driven by systematic sun sensor errors, star-scanner-to-sun-sensor alignment stability, and inertial-measurement-unit-to-sun-sensor alignment stability. Finally, a contingency plan to initialize the navigation filter in the event of a star scanner failure is presented. While this plan was not needed in flight, results indicate that the attitude initialization requirement could have still been met in this off-nominal scenario.