Results for “error analysis” — Page 18

DOE OSTI2016

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. We further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2017

Physics and Control of Locked Modes in the DIII-D Tokamak

This Final Technical Report summarizes an investigation, carried out under the auspices of the DOE Early Career Award, of the physics and control of non-rotating magnetic islands (“locked modes”) in tokamak plasmas. Locked modes are one of the main causes of disruptions in present tokamaks, and could be an even bigger concern in ITER, due to its relatively high beta (favoring the formation of Neoclassical Tearing Mode islands) and low rotation (favoring locking). For these reasons, this research had the goal of studying and learning how to control locked modes in the DIII-D National Fusion Facility under ITER-relevant conditions of high pressure and low rotation. Major results included: the first full suppression of locked modes and avoidance of the associated disruptions; the demonstration of error field detection from the interaction between locked modes, applied rotating fields and intrinsic errors; the analysis of a vast database of disruptive locked modes, which led to criteria for disruption prediction and avoidance.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Modeling Approach for a Priori Uncertainties of Laser Tracker Angle Measurements

Methods for modeling the uncertainty in laser tracker angle measurements vary within the metrology industry, leading to confusion and questionable stochastic modeling for survey network adjustments and error propagation analysis. Interpreting the published laser tracker manufacturer performance specifications to determine an a priori sigma value for weighting azimuth and zenith angle measurements can be confusing and has led to differing implementations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a unique way to model survey network a priori laser tracker angular uncertainties based on laser tracker manufacturers’ published maximum permissible error (MPE) values referenced to current standards for weighting survey network measurements. This paper’s proposed model takes into account the disparate effects that pointing errors, target centering errors, and leveling errors have on azimuth and zenith angular uncertainties for measurements with steep sightings and at near ranges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Real-Space Pseudopotential Method for the Calculation of Third-Row Elements X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopic Signatures

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a powerful characterization technique that unveils subtle chemical environment differences via core– electron binding energy (CEBE) analysis. We extend the development of realspace pseudopotential methods to calculating 1s, 2s, and 2p 3/2 CEBEs of third-row elements (S, P, and Si) within the framework of Kohn–Sham density-functional theory (KS-DFT). The new approach systematically prevents variational collapse and simplifies core-excited orbital selection within dense energy level distributions. However, careful error cancellation analysis is required to achieve accuracy comparable to all-electron methods and experiments. Combined with real-space KS-DFT implementation, this development enables large-scale simulations with both Dirichlet boundary conditions and periodic boundary conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

The eXtended virtual element method for elliptic problems with weakly singular solutions

This paper introduces a novel eXtended virtual element method, an extension of the conforming virtual element method. The X-VEM is formulated by incorporating appropriate enrichment functions in the local spaces. The method is designed to handle highly generic enrichment functions, including singularities arising from fractured domains. By achieving consistency on the enrichment space, the method is proven to achieve arbitrary approximation orders even in the presence of singular solutions. The paper includes a complete convergence analysis under general assumptions on mesh regularity, and numerical experiments validating the method’s accuracy on various mesh families, demonstrating optimal convergence rates in the L 2 - and H 1 - norms on fractured or L-shaped domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis and Its Data Collection Framework

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method for evaluating human errors in a variety of complex systems such as nuclear power plants, military systems, aircraft, and chemical plants. Most HRA methods currently used by regulatory institutes or utilities are called static HRA and are carried out by simple worksheets or simple calculators. To date, there are many unsolved or intrinsic challenges in static HRA. For example, existing static HRA does not realistically model and evaluate human actions as they would be performed at actual systems. There is no method with HRA to objectively estimate the time required for human actions despite being essential to HRA processes. In addition, many HRA methods still rely on a dataset generated prior to the 1980s, from unrelated industry experience or simply from expert judgment. Accordingly, this study attempted to research how to overcome the challenges of existing HRA via dynamic risk assessment (a.k.a., simulation-based or computation-based risk assessment) techniques. First, this study developed a dynamic HRA method, named as PRocedure-based Investigation Method of EMRALD Risk Assessment – HRA (PRIMERA-HRA). The PRIMERA-HRA mainly concentrates on providing HRA analysts with specific guidelines on how to reasonably model human actions, assign human reliability data and evaluate output of simulation within a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment tool, called as Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). Second, this study also developed a module for performance shaping factors (i.e., the key concept in HRA quantification) applicable to dynamic HRA, then implemented it based on PRIMERA-HRA within the EMRALD tool. Third, this study developed an HRA data collection framework to support dynamic HRA, called as Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP). Originally, the SHEEP study aimed to support static HRA and its data collection, but recently extended the scope to the new technologies such as dynamic HRA or HRA for advanced reactors. SHEEP focuses on the use of data collected from simplified simulators to complement—but not replace—data collection studies using full-scope simulators and actual operators. To date, many experiments were conducted under the SHEEP framework. Multiple analyses, such as human performance analysis, human error analysis, task complexity analysis, learning effect analysis and time distribution analysis, were also carried out using the collected data. Then, based on the major insights, an approach to inferring full-scope data based on simplified simulator data was proposed. The PRIMERA-HRA and SHEEP research are expected to evaluate human actions more realistically than existing static HRA, provide an opportunity to collect more HRA data with reasonable cost and labor, then contribute to enhance the quality of HRA.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2016

An Empirical Model for Energy Storage Systems

Improved models of energy storage systems are needed to enable the electric grid’s adaptation to increasing penetration of renewables. This paper develops a generic empirical model of energy storage system performance agnostic of type, chemistry, design or scale. Parameters for this model are calculated using test procedures adapted from the US DOE Protocol for Uniformly Measuring and Expressing the Performance of Energy Storage. We then assess the accuracy of this model for predicting the performance of the TransPower GridSaver – a 1 MW rated lithium-ion battery system that underwent laboratory experimentation and analysis. The developed model predicts a range of energy storage system performance based on the uncertainty of estimated model parameters. Finally, this model can be used to better understand the integration and coordination of energy storage on the electric grid.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty analysis of signal deconvolution using a measured instrument response function

A common analysis procedure minimizes the ln-likelihood that a set of experimental observables matches a parameterized model of the observation. The model includes a description of the underlying physical process as well as the instrument response function (IRF). Here, we investigate the National Ignition Facility (NIF) neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) spectrometers, the IRF is constructed from measurements and models. IRF measurements have a finite precision that can make significant contributions to the uncertainty estimate of the physical model’s parameters. Finally, we apply a Bayesian analysis to properly account for IRF uncertainties in calculating the ln-likelihood function used to find the optimum physical parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: MONITORING INTERSTELLAR SCATTERING DELAYS

We report on an effort to extract and monitor interstellar scintillation parameters in regular timing observations collected for the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves pulsar timing array. Scattering delays are measured by creating dynamic spectra for each pulsar and observing epoch of wide-band observations centered near 1500 MHz and carried out at the Green Bank Telescope and the Arecibo Observatory. The ∼800 MHz wide frequency bands imply dramatic changes in scintillation bandwidth across the bandpass, and a stretching routine has been included to account for this scaling. For most of the 10 pulsars for which the scaling has been measured, the bandwidths scale with frequency less steeply than expected for a Kolmogorov medium. We find estimated scattering delay values that vary with time by up to an order of magnitude. The mean measured scattering delays are similar to previously published values and are slightly higher than predicted by interstellar medium models. We investigate the possibility of increasing the timing precision by mitigating timing errors introduced by the scattering delays. For most of the pulsars, the uncertainty in the time of arrival of a single timing point is much larger than the maximum variation of the scattering delay, suggesting that diffractive scintillation remains as only a negligible part of their noise budget.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating E. coli genome‐scale metabolic model accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data

Abstract The Escherichia coli genome‐scale metabolic model (GEM) is an exemplar systems biology model for the simulation of cellular metabolism. Experimental validation of model predictions is essential to pinpoint uncertainty and ensure continued development of accurate models. Here, we quantified the accuracy of four subsequent E. coli GEMs using published mutant fitness data across thousands of genes and 25 different carbon sources. This evaluation demonstrated the utility of the area under a precision–recall curve relative to alternative accuracy metrics. An analysis of errors in the latest (iML1515) model identified several vitamins/cofactors that are likely available to mutants despite being absent from the experimental growth medium and highlighted isoenzyme gene‐protein‐reaction mapping as a key source of inaccurate predictions. A machine learning approach further identified metabolic fluxes through hydrogen ion exchange and specific central metabolism branch points as important determinants of model accuracy. This work outlines improved practices for the assessment of GEM accuracy with high‐throughput mutant fitness data and highlights promising areas for future model refinement in E. coli and beyond.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

New experiment WAGASCI to measure cross sections of neutrino interactions in water and hydrocarbon using J-PARC beam

The main objective of the long base T2K,Tokai-to-Kamioka, Japan, experiment is the investigation of neutrino oscillations with a high-intensity beam of muon neutrinos and antineutrinos. Neutrino interaction measurements in the near detector complex (ND280) of the Т2К experiment are used for adjustment of the parameters defining event simulation in the far detector (Super-Kamiokande), which is the key idea of the experiment; this allows one to considerably increase the oscillation analysis accuracy. The difference in the target material of the far (water) and near (scintillator, hydrocarbon) detectors results in a substantial systematic error in oscillation analysis. Systematic error can be reduced by direct measurements, a new water grid and scintillator detector WAGASCI was proposed for this purpose. The detector will operate at the J-PARC neutrino beam and measure the ratio of charged-current neutrino cross sections between water and hydrocarbon with a few percent precision. Further physical programs may include precise measurements of various charged channels of neutrino interaction. This paper presents the detector concept and the current plan for its installation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mixed precision s –step Lanczos and conjugate gradient algorithms

Compared to the classical Lanczos algorithm, the s-step Lanczos variant has the potential to improve performance by asymptotically decreasing the synchronization cost per iteration. However, this comes at a price; despite being mathematically equivalent, the s-step variant may behave quite differently in finite precision, potentially exhibiting greater loss of accuracy and slower convergence relative to the classical algorithm. It has previously been shown that the errors in the s-step version follow the same structure as the errors in the classical algorithm, but are amplified by a factor depending on the square of the condition number of the O(s)-dimensional Krylov bases computed in each outer loop. As the condition number of these s-step bases grows (in some cases very quickly) with s, this limits the s values that can be chosen and thus can limit the attainable performance. In this work, we show that if a select few computations in s-step Lanczos are performed in double the working precision, the error terms then depend only linearly on the conditioning of the s-step bases. This has the potential for drastically improving the numerical behavior of the algorithm with little impact on per-iteration performance. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the improved numerical behavior possible with the mixed precision approach, and also show that this improved behavior extends to mixed precision s-step CG. Here, we present preliminary performance results on NVIDIA V100 GPUs that show that the overhead of extra precision is minimal if one uses precisions implemented in hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data-Driven Multi-Step Demand Prediction for Ride-Hailing Services Using Convolutional Neural Network

Ride-hailing services are growing rapidly and becoming one of the most disruptive technologies in the transportation realm. Accurate prediction of ride-hailing trip demand not only enables cities to better understand people's activity patterns, but also helps ride-hailing companies and drivers make informed decisions to reduce deadheading vehicle miles traveled, traffic congestion, and energy consumption. In this study, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model is proposed for multi-step ride-hailing demand prediction using the trip request data in Chengdu, China, offered by DiDi Chuxing. The CNN model is capable of accurately predicting the ride-hailing pick-up demand at each 1-km by 1-km zone in the city of Chengdu for every 10 min. Compared with another deep learning model based on long short-term memory, the CNN model is 30% faster for the training and predicting process. The proposed model can also be easily extended to make multi-step predictions, which would benefit the on-demand shared autonomous vehicles applications and fleet operators in terms of supply-demand rebalancing. The prediction error attenuation analysis shows that the accuracy stays acceptable as the model predicts more steps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Mixed Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Linear Elasticity with Strongly Imposed Symmetry

In this paper, we study a mixed discontinuous Galerkin (MDG) method to solve linear elasticity problem with arbitrary order discontinuous finite element spaces in d -dimension ( $d=2,3$ ). This method uses polynomials of degree $k+1$ for the stress and of degree k for the displacement ( $k\ge 0$ ). The mixed DG scheme is proved to be well-posed under proper norms. Specifically, we prove that, for any $k \ge 0$ , the $H(\mathrm{div})$ -like error estimate for the stress and $L^2$ error estimate for the displacement are optimal. We further establish the optimal $L^2$ error estimate for the stress provided that the ${\mathcal {P}}_{k+2}-{\mathcal {P}}_{k+1}^{-1}$ Stokes pair is stable and $k \ge d$ . Finally, we also provide numerical results of MDG showing that the orders of convergence are actually sharp.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A $C^1$-Conforming Arbitrary-Order Two-Dimensional Virtual Element Method for the Fourth-Order Phase-Field Equation

We present a two-dimensional conforming virtual element method for the fourth-order phase-field equation. Our proposed numerical approach to the solution of this high-order phase-field (HOPF) equation relies on the design of an arbitrary-order accurate, virtual element space with $C^1$ global regularity. Such regularity is guaranteed by taking the values of the virtual element functions and their full gradient at the mesh vertices as degrees of freedom. Attaining high-order accuracy requires also edge polynomial moments of the trace of the virtual element functions and their normal derivatives. In this work, we detail the scheme construction, and prove its convergence by deriving error estimates in different norms. A set of representative test cases allows us to assess the behavior of the method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

An efficient approach for solving Klein–Gordon equation arising in quantum field theory using wavelets

A new approach for the solution of Klein–Gordon equation using Legendre wavelet-based approximation method is presented. The properties of Legendre wavelets are used to reduce the problem to the solution of system of algebraic equations. Usually 2{sup (k−1)}M{sup 2} connection coefficients are required to solve the Klein–Gordon equation by Legendre wavelets method as mentioned in the literature. But, our proposed method based on Legendre wavelets and algebraic polynomials require only 2{sup (k−1)}M connection coefficients instead of 2{sup (k−1)}M{sup 2} . Also the convergence analysis and error estimation for the proposed function approximation through the truncated series have been discussed and approved with the exact solution. Illustrative examples are discussed to demonstrate the validity and applicability of the technique with lesser computational effort.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗