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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

On the generation of magnetosheath lion roars

A theoretical model is proposed to discuss the electron dynamics associated with the mirror waves and their effects on the generation of the observed lion roars in the magnetosheath. It is pointed out that the usual double-adiabatic theory of hydromagnetics is not applicable to the electrons in mirror waves. Although the electron magnetic moment is conserved, the energy of each electron in the mirror waves is expected to be constant. Assuming an initial electron temperature anisotropy, it can be shown that in the low field region the electron temperature and thermal anisotropy are higher than the initial values, whereas in the high field region the electron temperature and anisotropy are lower. This point can lead to a theoretical explanation of the important features of the observed lion roars. Then present discussion complements the existing theories in the literature.

Lee, L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Small Penetrator Instrument Concept for the Advancement of Lunar Surface Science

Fundamental scientific objectives concerning the surface and subsurface material and dynamics of the Moon are the drivers for the use and advancement of penetrators, which emplace a suite of scientific instruments by impact into a planetary surface, typically at velocities of dozens to hundreds of meters per second. Small lunar penetrators are poised to become a valuable new tool for lunar science and exploration during the next decade. These low-cost ballistic probes can be deployed in large numbers from orbit, or from descending robotic or crewed vehicles, in order to explore and characterize the diversity of extreme lunar shallow subsurface environments. In this paper, we describe the general overview of penetrator objectives, potential instrumentation, and how these would benefit the advancement of lunar science at various extreme environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beam correction for multi-pass arcs in FFA@CEBAF: status update

This work examines the multi-pass steering of six electron beams in an FFA arc ranging from approximately 10.5 GeV to 22 GeV. Shown here is an algorithm based on singular value decomposition (SVD) to successfully steer all six beams through the arc given precise knowledge of all beam positions at each of one hundred and one diagnostic locations with one hundred individual corrector magnets: that is successive application of SVD to different 100 × 101 response matrices—one for each beam energy. Further, a machine learning scheme is developed which only requires knowledge of the energy-averaged beam position at each location to provide equivalent steering. Extension of this scheme to other beam optics quantities as well as transverse and longitudinal coupling is explored.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the Energy, Hygrothermal, and Thermal Capacity Performance of Cross-Laminated Timber

Cross-laminated timber (CLT) construction is gaining momentum in the US because it offers multiple advantages over traditional construction methods. Benefits that have received the most attention focus on constructability, the environment, and protection (e.g., blast resistance), although CLT construction is likely to offer other benefits, as well. Still, these have not been studied at length because such evaluations are costly, requiring long-term assessments in an actual building and specialized technical knowledge. Among the possible benefits, CLT construction likely provides a higher-performing building envelope. Using CLT panels to enclose a building means fewer joints in the opaque envelope than what is required in traditional stick-framed construction. Fewer joints mean fewer locations where the air- and water-resistive barrier (WRB) could be compromised; thus, a CLT building enclosure may require less maintenance and have a longer lifespan than a traditionally built structure because of fewer air and water leaks. In addition, CLT’s thermal mass moderates indoor temperatures, allowing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to operate more efficiently during peak hours, reducing operational energy consumption throughout the lifetime of the CLT building (Salonvaara et al., 2022). Furthermore, more stable indoor temperatures can increase occupant comfort. The CLT’s thermal mass can also reduce energy costs by adjusting to utility time-of-use pricing without affecting occupant comfort. The ability of CLT buildings to bridge periods without HVAC operation prepares them for future grid interaction and provides a certain level of resilience against power outages. Researchers have attempted to quantify these benefits; however, their work is based on simplified simulations with numerous assumptions. To correctly understand the benefits, an actual building must be monitored. Therefore, information needs to be gathered on indoor and outdoor temperatures, HVAC energy consumption, thermostat setpoints, temperatures, and thermal transport in CLT components to comprehend how these parameters are affected by the CLT’s thermal mass. These data are needed to reduce the number of assumptions and calibrate simulation models to optimize HVAC controls to minimize overall energy consumption, reduce energy use and higher fees during peak demand, and maintain occupant comfort. Additionally, the calibrated simulation model allows the optimization exercise to be repeated in various US climates. Potential benefits can be tailored to buildings in various locations, and decisions can be made on where CLT construction could be most advantageous. Furthermore, monitoring and simulation results are needed to evaluate the durability of the CLT structures in different climates. This project’s researchers gathered information to help understand and quantify the benefits of CLT buildings concerning operational energy, moderated indoor temperatures, and comfort; the dynamic operation to provide grid services; and resilience in times of power outage. Through the corroboration of simulation models with real-world measurements, this study paves the way for extrapolating findings to other climatic zones and building typologies, thereby broadening the understanding of CLT’s multifaceted benefits and reinforcing its position as a material of choice in sustainable construction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design optimization of an ethanol heavy-duty engine using design of experiments and bayesian optimization

Diesel-fueled engines still hold a large market share in the medium and heavy-duty transportation sector. However, the increase in fossil fuel prices and the strict emission regulations are leading engine manufacturers to seek cleaner alternatives without a compromise in performance. Alcohol-based fuels, such as ethanol, offer a promising alternative to diesel fuel in meeting regulatory demands. Ethanol provides cleaner combustion and lower levels of soot due to its chemical properties, in particular its lower level of carbon content. In addition, the stoichiometric operating conditions of alcohol fueled engines enable the mitigation of NOx emissions in aftertreatment stage. With the promise of retrofitting diesel engines to run on ethanol to reduce emissions, the thermal efficiency of these engines remains the primary optimization target. In order to find the optimal ethanol-fueled engine design that maximizes the thermal efficiency, a large design space needs to be investigated using engineering tools. In this study, previous research by the authors on optimizing the design of a single-cylinder ethanol-fueled engine was extended to explore the design space for a heavy-duty multi-cylinder engine configuration. A heavy-duty engine setup with multiple operating conditions at different engine speeds and loads were considered. A design optimization analysis was performed to identify the potential designs that maximize the indicated thermal efficiency in an ethanol-fueled compression ignition engine. First, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the engine was validated using experimental data for four drive cycle points. Using a design of experiments (DoE) approach and a parameterized piston bowl geometry, the model was then exercised to explore the relationship among geometric features of the piston bowl and spray targeting angle and indicated thermal efficiency across all tested operating conditions. After evaluating 165~candidate designs, a piston bowl geometry was identified that yielded an increase between 1.3 to 2.2 percentage points in indicated thermal efficiency for all tested conditions, while satisfying the operational design constraints for peak pressure and maximum pressure rise rate. The increased performance was attributed to enhanced mixing that led to the formation of a more homogeneous distribution of in-cylinder temperature and equivalence ratio, higher combustion temperatures, and shorter combustion duration. Finally, a Bayesian optimization (BOpt) analysis was employed to find the optimal piston bowl geometry with a fixed spray injector angle for one of the operating conditions. Using BOpt, a piston candidate was identified that resulted in a 1.9~percentage point increase in thermal efficiency from the baseline design, yet only required 65\% of the design samples investigated using the DoE approach.

Tekgul, Bulut↗
DOE OSTI2021

Final Targeting Strategy for the SDSS-IV APOGEE-2S Survey

APOGEE is a high-resolution (R ~ 22,000), near-infrared, multi-epoch, spectroscopic survey of the Milky Way. The second generation of the APOGEE project, APOGEE-2, includes an expansion of the survey to the Southern Hemisphere called APOGEE-2S. This expansion enabled APOGEE to perform a fully panoramic mapping of all of the main regions of the Milky Way; in particular, by operating in the H band, APOGEE is uniquely able to probe the dust-hidden inner regions of the Milky Way that are best accessed from the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we present the targeting strategy of APOGEE-2S, with special attention to documenting modifications to the original, previously published plan. The motivation for these changes is explained as well as an assessment of their effectiveness in achieving their intended scientific objective. In anticipation of this being the last paper detailing APOGEE targeting, we present an accounting of all such information complete through the end of the APOGEE-2S project; this includes several main survey programs dedicated to exploration of major stellar populations and regions of the Milky Way, as well as a full list of programs contributing to the APOGEE database through allocations of observing time by the Chilean National Time Allocation Committee and the Carnegie Institution for Science. This work was presented along with a companion article, Beaton et al. (2021), presenting the final target selection strategy adopted for APOGEE-2 in the Northern Hemisphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Initial exploration of a novel transient arrest system involving fuel heating

A preliminary analysis on a novel accident response system to diminish the severity of super- critical transients was conducted. The novel accident response system, called the instant shock arrest system, involves using electricity to heat the nuclear fuel at the onset of a large accidental reactivity insertion. This system is specifically designed for reactors with metallic fuel, such that the fuel is capable of conducting electricity, and being resistively heated. A reactor dynamics model of the advanced test reactor was created using the point kinetics equations and a linear reactivity feedback model to simulate how the system would effect the maximum fuel temperatures experienced during the transient. Transients with the instant shock arrest system were compared to those without it. It was found that the instant shock arrest system initially heated the fuel more than the unaffected transient but the negative reactivity inserted from such heating was enough to lower the maximum fuel temperature experienced during the transient. After simulating six different accident scenarios with reactivity insertions ranging from 0.5 to 1.3 dollar, it was found that an optimal system response could reduce peak fuel temperatures during the transient by 3.5% to 5%. Furthermore, discussion was given on how the optimal system response could be obtained using relatively simple numerical optimization algorithms due to the smoothness of the optimization problem. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plant-wide modeling and techno-economic analysis of a direct non-oxidative methane dehydroaromatization process via conventional and microwave-assisted catalysis

Direct non-oxidative methane dehydroaromatization (DHA) process via conventional and microwave (MW)-assisted thermo-catalytic catalysis is studied. Rate models for methane DHA reactions, including the effect of catalyst deactivation, are developed by using the in-house experimental data. Model results for gas concentration profile and catalyst deactivation are in good agreement with the experimental data. This rate model is then used for the development of dynamic multi-scale, multi-physics commercial-scale reactor models. Total number of fixed bed reactors desired for a cyclic steady state process is estimated. Plant-wide models are then developed for conventional and MW-assisted processes for producing products of desired specifications. Techno-economic analysis of the methane DHA process is undertaken. Economics of these methane DHA processes are compared with the typical multi-step natural gas to aromatics production process via methanol synthesis. Sensitivity of internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) to various economic and process parameters such as plant scale, desired rate of return, reactor cost, feedstock and utility cost, catalyst variable cost, and MW reactor cost is studied. Here, electric equivalent efficiency of the conventional methane DHA process is found to be 69.2 % and 67.3 % at 750 °C and 800 °C, respectively, while the MW-assisted methane DHA process has the electric equivalent efficiency of 48.9 % at 800 °C. IRRs of the conventional methane DHA process at 750 °C and 800 °C, and MW-assisted process are 15.2 %, 17.5 %, and 18.8 %, respectively for a methane feed flowrate of 19,782 kg/h, while the IRR of the multi-step natural gas to aromatics production process is estimated to be 0 % for the same plant scale. Impact of change in the methane price, electricity price, and catalyst cost is found to be considerable on the process economics, while the cost of the MW reactor is found to have negligible impact.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Controlling distributed energy resources via deep reinforcement learning for load flexibility and energy efficiency

Behind-the-meter distributed energy resources (DERs), including building solar photovoltaic (PV) technology and electric battery storage, are increasingly being considered as solutions to support carbon reduction goals and increase grid reliability and resiliency. However, dynamic control of these resources in concert with traditional building loads, to effect efficiency and demand flexibility, is not yet commonplace in commercial control products. Traditional rule-based control algorithms do not offer integrated closed-loop control to optimize across systems, and most often, PV and battery systems are operated for energy arbitrage and demand charge management, and not for the provision of grid services. More advanced control approaches, such as MPC control have not been widely adopted in industry because they require significant expertise to develop and deploy. Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning (DRL) offer a promising option to optimize the operation of DER systems and building loads with reduced setup effort. However, there are limited studies that evaluate the efficacy of these methods to control multiple building subsystems simultaneously. Additionally, most of the research has been conducted in simulated environments as opposed to real buildings. This paper proposes a DRL approach that uses a deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm for integrated control of HVAC and electric battery storage systems in the presence of on-site PV generation. The DRL algorithm, trained on synthetic data, was deployed in a physical test building and evaluated against a baseline that uses the current best-in-class rule-based control strategies. Performance in delivering energy efficiency, load shift, and load shed was tested using price-based signals. The results showed that the DRL-based controller can produce cost savings of up to 39.6% as compared to the baseline controller, while maintaining similar thermal comfort in the building. The project team has also integrated the simulation components developed during this work as an OpenAIGym environment and made it publicly available so that prospective DRL researchers can leverage this environment to evaluate alternate DRL algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Combinatorial transcription factor binding encodes cis -regulatory wiring of mouse forebrain GABAergic neurogenesis

Transcription factors (TFs) bind combinatorially to cis-regulatory elements, orchestrating transcriptional programs. Although studies of chromatin state and chromosomal interactions have demonstrated dynamic neurodevelopmental cis-regulatory landscapes, parallel understanding of TF interactions lags. To elucidate combinatorial TF binding driving mouse basal ganglia development, we integrated chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-seq) for twelve TFs, H3K4me3-associated enhancer-promoter interactions, chromatin and gene expression data, and functional enhancer assays. We identified sets of putative regulatory elements with shared TF binding (TF-pRE modules) that orchestrate distinct processes of GABAergic neurogenesis and suppress other cell fates. The majority of pREs were bound by one or two TFs; however, a small proportion were extensively bound. These sequences had exceptional evolutionary conservation and motif density, complex chromosomal interactions, and activity as in vivo enhancers. Our results provide insights into the combinatorial TF-pRE interactions that activate and repress expression programs during telencephalon neurogenesis and demonstrate the value of TF binding toward modeling developmental transcriptional wiring.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated bidirectional coupling of multiscale models of aerosol dosimetry: Validation with subject-specific deposition data

Assessing the toxicity of airborne particulate matter or the efficacy of inhaled drug depends upon accurate estimates of deposited fraction of inhaled materials. In silico approaches can provide important insights into site- or airway-specific deposition of inhaled aerosols in the respiratory system. In this study, we improved on our recently developed 3D/1D model that simulate aerosol transport and deposition in the whole lung over multiple breath cycles. A subject-specific multiscale lung model of a healthy male subject using computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) in a 3D model of the oral cavity through the large bronchial airways entering each lobe was bidirectionally coupled with a recently improved Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) model to predict aerosol deposition over the entire respiratory tract over multiple breaths for four conditions matching experimental aerosol exposures in the same subject from which the model was developed. These include two particle sizes (1 and 2.9 μm) and two subject-specific breathing rates of ~300 ml/s (slow breathing) and ~750 ml/s (fast breathing) at a target tidal volume of 1 L. In silico predictions of retained fraction were 0.31 and 0.29 for 1 μm and 0.66 and 0.62 for 2.9 μm during slow and fast breathing, respectively, and compared well with experimental data (1 μm: 0.31 ± 0.01 (slow) and 0.27 ± 0.01 (fast), 2.9 μm: 0.63 ± 0.03 (slow) and 0.68 ± 0.02 (fast)). Furthermore, these results provide a great deal of confidence in the validity and reliability of our approach.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Minimizing Fraud in the Carbon Offset Market Using Blockchain Technologies

Fraud in the Environmental Benefit Credit (EBC) markets is pervasive. To make matters worse, the cost of creating EBCs is often higher than the market price. Consequently, a method to create, validate, and verify EBCs and their relevance is needed to mitigate fraud. The EBC market has focused on geologic (fossil fuel) CO 2 sequestration projects that are often over budget and behind schedule and has failed to capture the "lowest hanging fruit" EBCs - terrestrial sequestration via the agricultural industry. This project reviews a methodology to attain possibly the least costly EBCs by tracking the reduction of inputs required to grow crops. The use of bio- stimulant products, such as humate, allows a farmer to use less nitrogen without adversely affecting crop yield. Using less nitrogen qualifies for EBCs by reducing nitrous oxide emissions and nitrate runoff from a farmer's field. A blockchain that tracks the bio-stimulant material from source to application provides a link between a tangible (bio-stimulant commodity) and the associated intangible (EBCs) assets. Covert insertion of taggants in the bio-stimulant products creates a unique barcode that allows a product to be digitally tracked from beginning to end. This process (blockchain technology) is so robust, logical, and transparent that it will enhance the value of the associated EBCs by mitigating fraud. It provides a real time method for monetizing the benefits of the material. Substantial amounts of energy are required to produce, transport, and distribute agricultural inputs including fertilizer and water. Intelligent optimization of the use of agricultural inputs can drive meaningful cost savings. Tagging and verification of product application provides a valuable understanding of the dynamics in the water/food energy nexus, a major food security and sustainability issue. As technology in agriculture evolves so to must methods to verify the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) potential of innovative solutions. The technology reviewed provides the ability to combine blockchain and taggants ("taggant blockchains") as the engine by which to (1) mitigate fraudulent carbon credits; (2) improve food chain security, and (3) monitor and manage sustainability. The verification of product quality and application is a requirement to validate benefits. Recent upgrades to humic and fulvic quality protocols known as ISO CD 19822 TC134 offers an analytical procedure. This work has been assisted by the Humic Products Trade Association and International Humic Substance Society. In addition, providing proof of application of these products and verification of the correct application of prescriptive humic and bio-stimulant products is required. Individual sources of humate have unique and verifiable characteristics. Additionally, methods for prescription of site- specific agricultural inputs in agricultural fields are available. (See US Patents 734867B2, US 90658633B2.) Finally, a method to assure application rate is required through the use of taggants. Sensors using organic solid to liquid phase change nanoparticles of various types and melting temperatures added to the naturally occurring materials provide a barcode. Over 100 types of nanoparticles exist ensuring numerous possible barcodes to reduce industry fraud. Taggant materials can be collected from soil samples of plant material to validate a blockchain of humic, fulvic and other soil amendment products. Other non-organic materials are also available as taggants; however, the organic tags are biodegradable and safe in the environment allowing for use during differing application timeliness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electromagnetic Signatures from the Tidal Tail of a Black Hole—Neutron Star Merger

Black hole - neutron star (BH-NS) mergers are a major target for ground-based gravitational wave observatories. A merger can also produce an electromagnetic counterpart (a kilonova) if it ejects neutron-rich matter that assembles into heavy elements through r-process nucleosynthesis. We study the kilonova signatures of the unbound dynamical ejecta of a BH-NS merger. We take as our initial state the results from a numerical relativity simulation and then use a general relativistic hydrodynamics code to study the evolution of the ejecta with parameterized r-process heating models. The unbound dynamical ejecta is initially a flattened, directed tidal tail largely confined to a plane. Heating from the r-process inflates the ejecta into a more spherical shape and smooths its small-scale structure, though the ejecta retains its bulk directed motion. We calculate the electromagnetic signatures using a 3D radiative transfer code and a parameterized opacity model for lanthanide-rich matter. The light curve varies with viewing angle because of two effects: asphericity results in brighter emission for orientations with larger projected areas, while Doppler boosting results in brighter emission for viewing angles more aligned with the direction of bulk motion. For typical r-process heating rates, the peak bolometric luminosity varies by a factor of ~3 with orientation while the peak in the optical bands varies by ~3 magnitudes. The spectrum is blueshifted at viewing angles along the bulk motion, which increases the V-band peak magnitude to ~-14 despite the lanthanide-rich composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Controllable Solar Flux Heating for Freeze Recovery in Molten Salt Parabolic Trough Collectors

In molten-salt parabolic trough plants, the melting process is particularly important for freeze recovery of salt that is solidified in a collector loop, should such an event occur. Currently impedance heating is expected for freeze recovery of the collector loops, but this method can be expensive. Here, a lower-cost alternative is proposed to use controllable concentrated solar flux directly from the parabolic mirrors to thaw salt that is frozen in the collector. A computational fluid dynamics model was developed to explore the solidification and melting processes of molten salt in a parabolic trough receiver and to assess the viability of this concept. Results indicate that concentrated solar heating has the potential to melt frozen salt in 5.6 h, compared to that in 8.8 h for a 300 W m –1 impedance heating system. At the same time, controllable solar flux heating introduces nonuniform solar fluxes on the receiver surface, which can induce significant thermal stress on the receiver tube. A preliminary stress analysis indicates that the temperature difference across the receiver tube should be maintained below about 70 °C for heating up to 300 °C at internal pressures ≤10 bar. At these conditions, freeze recovery using solar flux heating will not significantly affect receiver lifetime. These results suggest that controllable solar flux heating could effectively supplement or replace impedance heating in the freeze recovery system. Incorporating this methodology in future parabolic trough concentrating solar power plants is an opportunity for capital and operational cost-savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

carbon sequestration↗