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At least 325 records · Page 18

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Caloric Effects Induced by Uniform and Non-uniform Stress in Shape-Memory Materials

A Ginzburg–Landau model is developed that is adequate to describe a square-to-rectangle martensitic transition with associated shape-memory and superelastic properties. Using this model we study caloric effects in the vicinity of the martensitic transition induced by stress and we compare the case of a uniform uniaxial stress and the case of a non-uniform continuous distribution of stresses that produce bending of the material. The former case corresponds to an elastocaloric effect and the latter corresponds to a flexocaloric effect. The aim of the work is to quantitatively compare both cases, which we show must be accomplished in terms of equal amounts of exchanged mechanical work. It is then obtained that the flexocaloric effect is more efficient for low exchanged work but less efficient for large exchanged work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of the Griffin Reactor Multiphysics Application Using the Empire Micro Reactor Design Concept

In late 2019, INL and ANL agreed to jointly develop the reactor physics code named Griffin based on the integration of the two code suites, MAMMOTH/Rattlesnake (INL) and MC2 - 3/PROTEUS (ANL). Griffin is being developed based on the MOOSE framework and MOOSE quality assurance procedures. This decision was made to be able to allow DOE-NE to efficiently invest funding to this area and to provide effective and timely support for existing and potential users; the latter includes industry and government organizations who are developing various types of advanced reactors in the near and long term. Since MAMMOTH/Rattlesnake has been developed based on the MOOSE framework, the INL/ANL Griffin development team agreed to build Griffin beginning with a merger of MAMMOTH and Rattlesnake into a single code and moving forward by implementing capabilities from the PROTEUS suite into Griffin. Moving forward, both ANL and INL efforts are equally invested in the Griffin project, with management support, to provide an advanced reactor multiphysics tool to assist in reactor design, optimization, and safety analysis. Much work remains in moving Griffin forward to migrate PROTEUS capabilities and to optimize performance to meet user needs. The main objective of this work is to assess the current status of Griffin capabilities in terms of performance and accuracy, to determine priorities for PROTEUS migration, and to identify capabilities and features to improve for supporting the code integration effort. For this assessment, the Empire micro reactor problem that was developed in the ARPA-E MEITNER program was selected as an advance reactor concept of interest to the technical community. The Empire reactor problem was expanded from its original incomplete specification to be a small heat-pipe-cooled micro reactor core with ~113 cm radius and 70 cm in height, composed of 18 fuel assemblies, 12 control drums, and beryllium radial and axial reflectors. In the current model, using 5 cm axial reflectors specified in the original Empire assembly model, more than 10% of neutrons leak axially and through the empty center safety hole, as well as through heat pipe channels in fuel assembly elements that extend through the top reflector region. Several calculation models of the core were defined for systematic assessment, including 2-D and 3-D fuel assemblies and whole cores with cylindrical boundaries. Cross sections were generated using Serpent 2, and meshes were produced using the Argonne mesh tool or the INL neutronics meshing tools combined with CUBIT. Cross sections and meshes were converted to the ISOXML and Exodus formats, respectively, so that Griffin and PROTEUS could use consistent data for solving the reactor problems. With the prepared cross sections and meshes, PROTEUS was run first to ensure that all input data were correctly generated and input options in terms of angle, mesh, and energy group were accurately determined. Comparisons against Serpent 2 solutions were made in terms of eigenvalue and pin power. The same calculations and comparisons were then conducted using Griffin. For the fuel assembly and whole core problems, the PROTEUS eigenvalues agreed well with reference Serpent 2 solutions within 100 and 30 pcm, respectively, and pin power differences relative to Serpent 2 were overall less than 2.2% and RMS 0.8% for the whole core models. This indicated that all input data were properly prepared. Using the same data, Griffin was run selecting the SAAF-CFEM SN solver with Legendre-Gaussian quadrature and NDA and DSA for acceleration. It was found that the SAAF-CFEM solver of Griffin required finer meshes to achieve eigenvalue and pin power solutions in good agreement with Serpent 2, consequently requiring more memory requirement and longer computation time. On the other hand, the SPH-Diffusion 2-D core calculations performed using Griffin were able to recover the exact eigenvalue from the reference Serpent 2 solutions, resulting in a pin-power distribution with an RMS of 0.6% and maximum absolute difference of less than 1.4%. The runtimes for SPH-Diffusion for the 2-D core were less than 3 minutes on 40 cores. During this evolution of this evaluation, many updates were made in Griffin by the Griffin development team of INL (focusing on software updates) and ANL (reviewing and supporting software updates) to complete this assessment. Observations from the code assessment are presented in the conclusion section of this report, followed by a discussion of recommendations for future work.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Back-Stress and Its Evolution during Primary Creep in Particle Strengthened Nickel Superalloys

According to Eshelby’s theory, inelastically inhomogeneous inclusions in a metallic matrix give rise to a distribution of internal stresses. In the case of particle strengthened materials, such as nickel base superalloys, the presence and evolution of this back-stress leads to various observable effects, such as primary creep, back-flow upon loading, and memory of prior deformation. This article presents the background of the concept of back-stress and how it applies to the scenario of creep. A derivation of an evolution equation for back-stress in the context of primary creep is also presented. The results from neutron diffraction with in-situ creep experiments on directionally solidified nickel superalloys are presented in order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed equation and the corollaries derived therefrom.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Earth mover’s distance as a measure of CP violation

We introduce a new unbinned two sample test statistic sensitive to CP violation utilizing the optimal transport plan associated with the Wasserstein (earth mover’s) distance. The efficacy of the test statistic is shown via two examples of CP asymmetric distributions with varying sample sizes: the Dalitz distributions of B 0 → K + π – π 0 and of D 0 → π + π – π 0 decays. The windowed version of the Wasserstein distance test statistic is shown to have comparable sensitivity to CP violation as the commonly used energy test statistic, but also retains information about the localized distributions of CP asymmetry over the Dalitz plot. For large statistic datasets we introduce two modified Wasserstein distance based test statistics — the binned and the sliced Wasserstein distance statistics, which show comparable sensitivity to CP violation, but improved computing time and memory scalings. Finally, general extensions and applications of the introduced statistics are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Protonic nickelate device networks for spatiotemporal neuromorphic computing

Computation in biological neural circuits arises from the interplay of nonlinear temporal responses and spatially distributed dynamic network interactions. Replicating this richness in hardware has remained challenging, as most neuromorphic devices emulate only isolated neuron- or synapse-like functions. Here we introduce an integrated neuromorphic computing platform in which both nonlinear spatiotemporal processing and programmable memory are realized within a single perovskite nickelate material system. By engineering symmetric and asymmetric hydrogenated NdNiO 3 junction devices on the same wafer, we combine ultrafast, proton-mediated transient dynamics with stable multilevel resistance states. Networks of symmetric NdNiO 3 junctions exhibit emergent spatial interactions mediated by proton redistribution, while each node simultaneously provides short-term temporal memory, enabling nanosecond-scale operation with an energy cost of ~0.2 nJ per input. When interfaced with asymmetric output units serving as reconfigurable long-term weights, these networks allow both feature transformation and linear classification in the same material system. Leveraging these emergent interactions, the platform enables real-time pattern recognition and achieves high accuracy in spoken digit classification and early seizure detection, outperforming temporal-only or uncoupled architectures. These results position protonic nickelates as a compact, energy-efficient, CMOS-compatible platform that integrates processing and memory for scalable intelligent hardware.

Electrical and electronic engineering↗

Control-Agnostic Beam Instrumentation with Redis at the Core

Redis isn’t a database — it’s our protocol. Fermilab’s RedisAdapter provides a high-performance, control-system-agnostic bridge between digitized beam data and downstream consumers such as ACNET and EPICS. It forms the foundation of three new software components deployed across MicroTCA-based digitizers: GMMDM, a runtime for memory-mapped data movement from Zynq-based platforms; GRAFE, a front end for Redis-to-ACNET presentation; and GREFE, an EPICS IOC front end. Together, these tools enable modular, standardized instrumentation pipelines. Precision timing is handled via White Rabbit PPS distribution, allowing nanosecond-scale synchronization across crates. This architecture, originally prototyped in Booster BPM systems, is now deployed on modern hardware and designed to meet the performance, modularity, and scalability requirements of the PIP-II era.

Steinkamp, Derek [Fermilab] (ORCID:000900027228626↗

Design, Detection, and Countermeasure of Frequency Spectrum Attack and Its Impact on Long Short-Term Memory Load Forecasting and Microgrid Energy Management

This paper introduces a frequency-domain false data injection attack called Frequency Spectrum Attack (FSA) and explores its effects on load forecasting and the energy management system (EMS) in a microgrid. The FSA analyzes time-series signals in the frequency domain to identify patterns in their frequency spectrum. It learns the distribution of dominant frequencies in a dataset of healthy signals. Subsequently, it manipulates the amplitudes of dominant frequencies within this healthy distribution, ensuring a stealthy attack against statistical analysis of the signal spectrum. We evaluated the performance of FSA on LSTM, a state-of-the-art network for load forecasting. The results show that FSA can triple the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of predictions compared to the normal case and increase it by 70% compared to noise injection attacks. Furthermore, FSA indirectly enhances battery utilization in the EMS by 45%. We then proposed a detection method that combines statistical analysis and machine-learning-based classification techniques with features. The model effectively distinguishes FSA from healthy and noisy signals, achieving an accuracy of 98.7% and an F1-score of 98.1% on a load dataset, covering healthy, FSA, and noisy load data. Finally, a countermeasure was introduced based on the statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of healthy signals to mitigate the impact of FSA. This countermeasure successfully reduces the MAE of the attacked model from 0.135 to 0.053, validating its effectiveness in mitigating FSA.

Nazeri, Amirhossein↗

Structural Phase Transitions between Layered Indium Selenide for Integrated Photonic Memory

The primary mechanism of optical memoristive devices relies on phase transitions between amorphous and crystalline states. The slow or energy-hungry amorphous–crystalline transitions in optical phase-change materials are detrimental to the scalability and performance of devices. Leveraging an integrated photonic platform, nonvolatile and reversible switching between two layered structures of indium selenide (In 2 Se 3 ) triggered by a single nanosecond pulse is demonstrated. The high-resolution pair distribution function reveals the detailed atomistic transition pathways between the layered structures. With interlayer “shear glide” and isosymmetric phase transition, switching between the α- and β-structural states contains low re-configurational entropy, allowing reversible switching between layered structures. Broadband refractive index contrast, optical transparency, and volumetric effect in the crystalline–crystalline phase transition are experimentally characterized in molecular-beam-epitaxy-grown thin films and compared to ab initio calculations. Finally, the nonlinear resonator transmission spectra measure of incremental linear loss rate of 3.3 GHz, introduced by a 1.5 µm-long In 2 Se 3 -covered layer, resulted from the combinations of material absorption and scattering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗

Hybrid classical-quantum communication networks

Over the past several decades, the proliferation of global classical communication networks has transformed various facets of human society. Concurrently, quantum networking has emerged as a dynamic field of research, driven by its potential applications in distributed quantum computing, quantum sensor networks, and secure communications. This prompts a fundamental question: rather than constructing quantum networks from scratch, can we harness the widely available classical fiber-optic infrastructure to establish hybrid quantum–classical networks? This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of ongoing research endeavors aimed at integrating quantum communication protocols, such as quantum key distribution, into existing lightwave networks. This approach offers the substantial advantage of reducing implementation costs by allowing classical and quantum communication protocols to share optical fibers, communication hardware, and other network control resources—arguably the most pragmatic solution in the near term. In the long run, classical communication will also reap the rewards of innovative quantum communication technologies, such as quantum memories and repeaters. Accordingly, our vision for the future of the Internet is that of heterogeneous communication networks thoughtfully designed for the seamless support of both classical and quantum communications.

Fiber-optic communication↗

Evaluating sealability of blended smart polymer and fiber additive for geothermal drilling with the effect of fracture opening size

Geothermal formations often contain extensive fracture networks. These fracture networks contribute to the significant loss of drilling fluids during geothermal drilling. Multiple loss circulation materials (LCM) such as fiber, granules, and pills have been proposed to tackle this problem but with only limited success. Recent advances in materials science have led to the development of thermoset shape memory polymers (SMP) to address the lost circulation problem. In this paper, we evaluate a thermoset SMP performance in sealing near wellbore fractures of different sizes in geothermal wells. The SMP performance was assessed using granite disks and cylindrical granite cores having fracture sizes of 1000 μm and 3000 μm. A static filtration test was performed using cedar fiber, CaCO 3 , and SMP. Results showed cedar fiber performed better than the CaCO 3 ., reducing fluid loss by 89% and improving sealing pressure by 200 psi. A novel dynamic testing unit that allows for high-temperature testing under flowing conditions was used in this study. The analysis showed that 3% by weight SMP and fiber blends could bridge and plug the 1000 μm fracture. For a larger fracture of 3000 μm width, there was a need to increase the weight concentration of the SMP to 6% to plug the fracture opening effectively. We showed the influence of key parameters such as the type of LCM, concentration, and particle size distribution in optimizing the performance of drilling fluid loss treatment.

02 PETROLEUM↗

FPDeep: Scalable Acceleration of CNN Training on Deeply-Pipelined FPGA Clusters

In this paper, we propose a framework called FPDeep, which uses a hybrid of model and layer paral- lelism to configure distributed reconfigurable clusters to train DNNs. This approach has numerous benefits. First, the design does not suffer from batch size growth. Second, novel workload and weight partitioning leads to balanced loads of both among nodes. And third, the entire system is fine-grained pipeline. This leads to high parallelism and utilization and also minimizes the time features need to be cached while waiting for back-propagation.

Wang, Tianqi↗

Large-scale integration of artificial atoms in hybrid photonic circuits

A central challenge in developing quantum computers and long-range quantum networks is the distribution of entanglement across many individually controllable qubits. Colour centres in diamond have emerged as leading solid-state ‘artificial atom’ qubits because they enable on-demand remote entanglement, coherent control of over ten ancillae qubits with minute-long coherence times and memory-enhanced quantum communication. A critical next step is to integrate large numbers of artificial atoms with photonic architectures to enable large-scale quantum information processing systems. So far, these efforts have been stymied by qubit inhomogeneities, low device yield and complex device requirements. Here we introduce a process for the high-yield heterogeneous integration of ‘quantum microchiplets’—diamond waveguide arrays containing highly coherent colour centres—on a photonic integrated circuit (PIC). We use this process to realize a 128-channel, defect-free array of germanium-vacancy and silicon-vacancy colour centres in an aluminium nitride PIC. Photoluminescence spectroscopy reveals long-term, stable and narrow average optical linewidths of 54 megahertz (146 megahertz) for germanium-vacancy (silicon-vacancy) emitters, close to the lifetime-limited linewidth of 32 megahertz (93 megahertz). We show that inhomogeneities of individual colour centre optical transitions can be compensated in situ by integrated tuning over 50 gigahertz without linewidth degradation. The ability to assemble large numbers of nearly indistinguishable and tunable artificial atoms into phase-stable PICs marks a key step towards multiplexed quantum repeaters and general-purpose quantum processors

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient optimization method for finding minimum energy paths of magnetic transitions

Here, efficient algorithms for the calculation of minimum energy paths of magnetic transitions are implemented within the geodesic nudged elastic band (GNEB) approach. While an objective function is not available for GNEB and a traditional line search can, therefore, not be performed, the use of limited memory Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (LBFGS) and conjugate gradient algorithms in conjunction with orthogonal spin optimization (OSO) approach is shown to greatly outperform the previously used velocity projection and dissipative Landau–Lifschitz dynamics optimization methods. The implementation makes use of energy weighted springs for the distribution of the discretization points along the path and this is found to improve performance significantly. The various methods are applied to several test problems using a Heisenberg-type Hamiltonian, extended in some cases to include Dzyaloshinskii–Moriya and exchange interactions beyond nearest neighbours. Minimum energy paths are found for magnetization reversals in a nano-island, collapse of skyrmions in two-dimensional layers and annihilation of a chiral bobber near the surface of a three-dimensional magnet. The LBFGS-OSO method is found to outperform the dynamics based approaches by up to a factor of 8 in some cases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

First-principles study and experimental characterization of metal incorporation in germanium telluride

Germanium telluride is a well-known phase change material (PCM) used in non-volatile memory cells and radio frequency switches. Controlling the properties of GeTe for improved PCM device performance has sometimes been achieved by doping and/or alloying with metals, often at concentrations greater than 10 at. % and using non-equilibrium methods. Here, since switching PCMs between the low-resistance crystalline and high-resistance amorphous states requires a heating cycle, the stability of metal-incorporated GeTe (Ge 0.5–x M x Te 0.5 ) films is also critical to practical implementation of these materials in electronic and optoelectronic devices. In this work, we use both density-functional theory and experimental characterization methods to probe the solubility and critical properties of Ge 0.5–x M x Te 0.5 films. Using first-principles calculations, we determine the enthalpy of formation for GeTe with 2.08, 4.17, and 6.25 at. % of Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, and Ti and show trends between the stability of the Ge 0.5–x M x Te 0.5 systems and the atomic position, composition, and distribution of the metal atoms in the GeTe matrix.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural Evolution of Mixed-Addenda Keggin Polyoxometalate Anions with Atom-by-Atom Substitution

Polyoxometalates (POMs) are molecular metal oxides with distinctive electronic properties that make them promising materials for applications in energy, sensors, and memory devices. One of the most promising methods of tuning the stability, photochromic, redox, and electron-spin properties of POMs is through the substitution of the metal “addenda” atoms that, along with oxygen, constitute their cage-like structures. Because traditional synthesis methods typically produce a distribution of POMs, the isolation and characterization of multimetallic POMs with predetermined stoichiometry remains challenging. The presence of multiple energetically accessible isomers further complicates the experimental characterization and theoretical modeling of multimetallic POMs. Herein, we leverage the distinguishing mass-selection capabilities of ion soft landing to prepare stoichiometrically selected Keggin PMo x W 12-x O 40 3- (x = 0 – 6, 8, 10, and 12) POMs on self-assembled monolayer surfaces free of the solvent molecules and counterions that often confound characterization of complex species at interfaces. The structures of the supported POMs are characterized with atom-by-atom precision using in situ infrared (IR) reflection absorption spectroscopy complemented by detailed density functional theory calculations. Our joint experimental and theoretical results reveal an almost linear shift in the positions of the IR bands towards lower wavenumbers with an increase in the number of lighter molybdenum atoms compared to heavier W atoms in PMoxW 12-x O 40 3- . The theoretical calculations also indicate that numerous isomeric structures may be populated at the experimental conditions and, consequently, contribute to the overall IR spectra. In conclusion, our findings indicate that in addition to the number of substituted addenda atoms and the presence of multiple isomeric structures, interactions with the surface play an important role in determining the IR spectra and structure of supported bimetallic POMs.

Prabhakaran, Venkateshkumar [Pacific Northwest Nat↗

Dispatch Manager for NEML2 Constitutive Model Calculations Embedded in MOOSE

This report describes the extended capabilities of the NEML2 constitutive modeling library, including a flexible and efficient work dispatching system designed to leverage both CPU and GPU resources. This enhancement addresses one of the primary computational challenges in large-scale simulations: the ability to distribute and execute batches of material model evaluations across heterogeneous computing devices. The new dispatch system introduces a modular set of dispatcher and scheduler classes that coordinate the flow of data and execution between devices. The dispatcher is responsible for efficiently packaging work, managing device-specific memory operations, and synchronizing results. This modularity allows for extensibility, making it straightforward to integrate additional computing backends in the future. From an implementation standpoint, the dispatcher system interfaces seamlessly with NEML2's existing models. They handle device-aware tensor operations, optimize memory transfers, and support asynchronous execution when applicable. This design ensures that batches of material points can be evaluated concurrently, substantially improving throughput compared to previous single-device or serial implementations. These improvements not only enhance the raw performance of NEML2 but also improve its usability in multiscale and high-fidelity simulations, where the simultaneous evaluation of large material point batches is critical. Benchmarks included in the report demonstrate the system’s scalability, highlighting its effectiveness when leveraging modern GPU architectures.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗