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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian differential programming for robust systems identification under uncertainty

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling. This allows an efficient inference of the posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty, while the use of sparsity-promoting priors enables the discovery of interpretable and parsimonious representations for the underlying latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, including nonlinear oscillators, predator–prey systems and examples from systems biology. Taken together, our findings put forth a flexible and robust workflow for data-driven model discovery under uncertainty. All codes and data accompanying this article are available at https://bit.ly/34FOJMj .

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Application of Sequential Design of Experiments (SDoE) to Large Pilot-Scale Solvent-Based CO2 Capture Process at Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM)

The United States Department of Energy’s Carbon Capture Simulation for Industry Impact (CCSI2) program has developed a framework for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) that aims to maximize knowledge gained from budget- and schedule-limited pilot scale testing. SDoE was applied to the planning and execution of campaigns for testing CO2 capture systems at pilot-scale in order to optimally allocate resources available for the testing. In this methodology, a stochastic process model is developed by quantifying the parametric uncertainty in submodels of interest; for a solvent-based CO2 capture system, these may include physical properties and equipment performance submodels (e.g., mass transfer, interfacial area). This uncertainty is propagated through the full process model, over variable operating conditions, for estimating the resulting uncertainty in key model outputs (e.g., percentage of CO2 capture, solvent regeneration energy requirement). In developing a data collection plan, the predicted output uncertainty is incorporated into an algorithm that seeks simultaneously to select process operating conditions for which the predicted uncertainty is relatively high and to ensure that the entire space of operation is well represented. This test plan is then used to guide operation of the pilot plant at varying steady-state conditions, with resulting process data incorporated into the existing model using Bayesian inference to refine parameter distributions. The updated stochastic model, with reduced parametric uncertainty from data collected, is then used to guide additional data collection, thus the sequential nature of the experimental design. The SDoE process was implemented at the pilot test unit (12 MWe in scale) at Norway’s Technology Centre Mongstad (TCM) in a summer 2018 test campaign with aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA). During the test campaign, the varied operating conditions included the flowrates of circulated solvent, flue gas, and reboiler steam and the CO2 concentration in the flue gas. The process data were used to update probability distributions of mass transfer and interfacial area parameters of a stochastic process model developed by the CCSI2 team. Two iterations of the SDoE process were executed, resulting in the uncertainty in model predicted CO2 capture percentage decreasing by an average of 58.0 ± 4.7% over the full input space of interest. This work demonstrates the potential of the SDoE process for model refinement through reduction in process model parametric uncertainty, and ultimately risk in scale-up, in CO2 capture technology performance.

carbon capture↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the Cosmic Expansion History from GWTC–3

We use 47 gravitational wave sources from the Third LIGO–Virgo–Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC–3) to estimate the Hubble parameter H(z), including its current value, the Hubble constant H0. Each gravitational wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source, and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and H(z). The source mass distribution displays a peak around 34 M ⊙ , followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with the redshift results in a H(z) measurement, yielding H 0 = $68$$^{+12}_{–8}$km s –1 Mpc –1 (68% credible interval) when combined with the H 0 measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the H 0 estimate from GWTC–1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of H 0 = $68$$^{+8}_{–6}$km s –1 Mpc –1 with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC–1 result and 20% with respect to recent H 0 studies using GWTC–2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about H 0 ) is the well-localized event GW190814.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Acoustic scattering from a turbulent vortex

With the aid of the Born approximation, the time autocorrelation and power spectral density are calculated for the received acoustic signal scattered from velocity fluctuations in a turbulent aircraft trailing vortex. The turbulence is required to be globally stationary, but only locally homogeneous. The treatment includes the effects of spectral broadening due to convection of the scattering eddies by a spatially varying mean flow and by macroeddies. The 3 db bandwidth of the received signal is related to the scattering angle and the core Mach number of the vortex. A primary feature of the analysis is that it provides a method for inferring the radial intensity distribution of turbulence in a vortex. The analysis technique is also applicable to scattering from other turbulent flows where significant variations of turbulence level occur over distances on the order of the macroeddy size.

Ramsey, V. W.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Distribution and size of elements of Saturn's rings as inferred from 12-cm radar observations

A 64m radar antenna was used to observe Saturn's rings at 12.6 cm wavelength, with reduced Doppler spread. The results show a positive radar return corresponding to about a 60 percent return from an isotropic scatterer with the projected area of the rings, allowing for the Cassini division. A radar spectrogram of the rings is shown with power density plotted against Doppler frequency shift.

Morris, G. A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Multivariate normality

Sets of experimentally determined or routinely observed data provide information about the past, present and, hopefully, future sets of similarly produced data. An infinite set of statistical models exists which may be used to describe the data sets. The normal distribution is one model. If it serves at all, it serves well. If a data set, or a transformation of the set, representative of a larger population can be described by the normal distribution, then valid statistical inferences can be drawn. There are several tests which may be applied to a data set to determine whether the univariate normal model adequately describes the set. The chi-square test based on Pearson's work in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is often used. Like all tests, it has some weaknesses which are discussed in elementary texts. Extension of the chi-square test to the multivariate normal model is provided. Tables and graphs permit easier application of the test in the higher dimensions. Several examples, using recorded data, illustrate the procedures. Tests of maximum absolute differences, mean sum of squares of residuals, runs and changes of sign are included in these tests. Dimensions one through five with selected sample sizes 11 to 101 are used to illustrate the statistical tests developed.

Crutcher, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A turbulent origin for the rotation of molecular clouds

The observed rotational properties of dark clouds are shown to be consistent with the turbulent character of the interstellar medium. The turbulent flow is easily maintained by the shearing action of differential galactic rotation. The size distribution of molecular clouds inferred from observations is found to closely resemble a Kolmogorov turbulent spectrum. These findings suggest that the processes leading to the formation and evolution of such clouds may depend strongly on the properties and characteristics of interstellar turbulence.

Fleck, R. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Propagation and nucleosynthesis of ultraheavy cosmic rays

The observed fluxes of cosmic ray (C.R.) ultraheavy elements depend on their charge and mass spectrum at the sources and on the propagation effects, on the distribution of path lengths traversed by the particles on their way from the sources to the observation point. The effect of different path length distributions (p.l.d.) on the infered source abunances is analyzed. It seems that it is rather difficult to fit a reasonable p.l.d. so that the obtained source spectrum coincides with the Solar System (SS) abundances in more detail. It suggests that the nucleosynthesis conditions for c.r. nuclei may differ from that for SS matter. The nucleosynthesis of ultraheavy elements fitting its parameters to get the c.r. source abundances is calculated. It is shown that it is possible to get a very good agreement between the predicted and the observed source abundance.

Giler, M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

On the relationship between scatterometer-derived convergences and atmospheric moisture

Fields of divergence calculated from the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer winds and fields of integrated water vapor and rainrate from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer on Seasat are constructed for three different midlatitude cyclones. These storms include an explosively deepening cyclone that occurred in the North Atlantic (also known as the Queen Elizabeth II cyclone), a storm that occurred in the North Pacific, and a Southern Ocean storm. In all three cases, the regions of convergence and atmospheric water (vapor and rain) are consistent with each other and help to define features of each storm. The vertical distribution of moisture is inferred for one case using both the convergence pattern and the integrated water vapor field. In another, interpretation of the convergence field in a data gap region is aided by the water vapor field. In all three cases, surface low pressure centers, fronts, and even frontal waves are clearly evident as areas of convergence, and increased water vapor and rainrate.

Mcmurdie, Lynn A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Aspects of interplanetary plasma turbulence

Data acquired in the free solar wind by the ISEE 1 and ISEE 2 propagation experiment were used to obtain the power spectra of fluctuations in electron density; a maximum-entropy technique has made it possible to exploit fully the intrinsic precision of the in situ measurements. The results have led to a new determination of the anisotropy of density fluctuations in the solar wind, which is in conflict with certain expectations based on the propagation of Langmuir waves, but is in agreement with multistation interplanetary-scintillation measurements: it could well be that Langmuir wave growth rates during type III solar bursts are much larger than has been inferred from the electron distribution function, whose measurement involves averaging over relatively long time intervals. The relation between the fluctuation level and the mean density is studied, and tentative evidence for a correlation between the relative fluctuation level and proton temperature is presented.

Celnikier, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Laboratory measurements of the 7.5-9.38-mm absorption of gaseous ammonia (NH3) under simulated Jovian conditions

An attempt is made to infer the abundance and distribution of ammonia from RF emission measurements more accurately than heretofore, on the basis of the results of laboratory measurements for the mm-wave opacity of gaseous ammonia under simulated Jovian atmosphere conditions. The measurements were conducted at various frequencies in the 32-40 GHz range at 2 atm and 203 K; the atmospheric mixture was 88.34 percent H2, 9.81 percent He, and 1.85 percent NH3. Experimental results are found to be readily modeled by the Gross (1955) line-shape factor, rather than that of Van Vleck and Weisskopf (1945).

Joiner, Joanna↗

NASA NTRS1989

A CO and far-infrared study of the S254-S258 region

The molecular cloud associated with compact radio and bright optical H II regions is studied from observations of (C-12)O, (C-13)O, HCN J = 1-0 emission. The far-infrared and millimeter molecular line emission from the S254-S258 molecular cloud is analyzed, using co-added survey data from IRAS, to investigate the coupling between the dust and gas components and the internal energetics associated with molecular clouds. The dust component is analyzed by fitting model intensities, derived from a dust mass column density temperature relation, to the observed far-infrared emission. Such modeling is shown to provide a more complete description of the cold dust component which comprises most of the dust mass than can be determined from the standard single temperature analysis. Local heating of the dust component by newborn massive stars associated with the H II regions of the cloud is inferred from the spatial distribution of temperatures of grains which make the largest contributions to the observed 60 and 100 micron emission.

Heyer, Mark H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Observations of VHF emissions from 50-mA electron beam injections in the ionosphere that are associated with beam-induced discharges

Results are presented of observations of strong VHF plasma waves with amplitudes in excess of 0.1 mV/m (Hz)1/2 associated with 50 mA electron beam injections in the ionosphere. Data from three swept-frequency receivers carried on two daughter payloads are analyzed to determine the emission spectra of the electron beam for various energies and currents. These results were obtained from the rocket-borne experiment SCEX 3, NASA flight 39.002 UE, launched February 1, 1990. The accelerator payload also carried photometers, which measured luminosity at wavelengths of 391.4 and 380.5 nm. Several times during electron gun activity the measured luminosity increased much faster than proportional to the beam current. This nonlinear increase is evidence that a discharge is occurring in the vicinity of the accelerator payload. It is inferred from the uniform distribution of the luminosity around the accelerator payload that the observed discharge extends significantly outside the beam cylinder.

Goerke, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Backscattering by nonspherical hydrometeors as calculated by the coupled-dipole method - An application in radar meteorology

The severest test of a theory of scattering by particles is how well it calculates scattering in the backward direction. The coupled-dipole method can be used for accurately calculating backscattering at 94 GHz by hexagonal ice crystals. Backscattering by columns is markedly different from that by plates, which indicates that it might be possible to infer size and shape distributions of ice crystals using recently developed millimeter wave radar.

Dungey, Clifton E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Properties and decay of stratospheric aerosols in the Arctic following the 1991 eruptions of Mount Pinatubo

Sunphotometer observations made from an aircraft several months after the June 1991 eruptions of Mount Pinatubo are used to quantify the spectral opacity of the Arctic stratosphere. Ancillary surface-based measurements are presented in support of the aircraft data that show large increases in stratospheric optical depth attributed to the presence of volcanic aerosols. Visible optical depths greater than 0.2 were observed during flight segments flown above the tropopause. An inversion algorithm and the optical depth data are used to infer effective aerosol size distributions. The distributions tend to be bimodal, having a large-partical mode radius of about 0.50 micron and a small-particle mode of higher concentration with radii less than 0.18 micron. Surface measurements made during spring 1992 and 1993 are also used to estimate a time constant (e-folding time) of about 13.5 months assuming that the Arctic stratosphere's opacity decays exponentially; this estimate is larger than decay times observed following other major volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that any climate perturbations in the Arctic caused by eruptions of Pinatubo may be significant and will very likely persist longer than any volcanically-induced changes observed there during the past century.

Stone, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for Understanding Preciptation Processes

The global hydrological cycle is central to climate system interactions and the key to understanding their behavior. Rainfall and its associated precipitation processes are a key link in the hydrologic cycle. Fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability can exert a large impact upon the structure of the upper ocean layer. In addition, approximately two-thirds of the global rain falls in the Tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for about three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Precipitation from convective cloud systems comprises a large portion of tropical heating and rainfall. Furthermore, the vertical distribution of convective latent-heat releases modulates large-scale tropical circulations (e.g., the 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation), which, in turn, impacts midlatitude weather through teleconnection patterns such as those associated with El Nino. Shifts in these global circulations can result in prolonged periods of droughts and floods, thereby exerting a tremendous impact upon the biosphere and human habitation. And yet, monthly rainfall over the tropical oceans is still not known within a factor of two over large (5 degrees latitude by 5 degrees longitude) areas. Hence, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, can provide a more accurate measurement of rainfall as well as estimate the four-dimensional structure of diabatic heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. In addition, this information can be used for global circulation and climate models for testing and improving their parameterizations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗