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The Pairwise Comparison technique is a general purpose estimation approach for capturing expert judgment. This approach can be generalized to a probabilistic version using Monte Carlo methods to produce estimates of size distributions.
The cometary tray of the NASA Stardust spacecraft s aerogel collector has been examined to study the dust that was captured during the 2004 fly by of comet 81P/Wild-2. An optical scan of the entire collector surface revealed 256 impact features in the aerogel (width > 100 microns). 20 aerogel blocks (out of a total of 132) were removed from the collector tray for a higher resolution optical scan and 186 tracks were observed (track length > 50 microns and width > 8 microns). The impact features were classified into three types based on their morphology. Laboratory calibrations were conducted which reproduce all three types. This work suggests that the cometary dust consisted of some cohesive, relatively strong particles as well as particles with a more friable or low cohesion matrix containing smaller strong grains. The calibrations also permitted a particle size distribution to be estimated for the cometary dust. We estimate that approximately 1200 particles bigger than 1 micron struck the aerogel. The cumulative size distribution of the captured particles was obtained and compared with observations made by active dust detectors during the encounter. At large sizes (>20 microns) all measures of the dust are compatible, but at micrometer scales and smaller discrepancies exist between the various measurement systems which may reflect structure in the dust flux (streams, clusters etc.) along with some possible instrument effects.
Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain - an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.
Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain –an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.
Global distribution of electric fields and currents in the high-latitude ionosphere was estimated using data from the ground-based network of magnetometers and from nearly simultaneous observations with DE 1 and DE 2 satellites. The electric field and current distributions at high altitudes were calculated from instantaneous ionospheric conductivity (estimated from the DE 1 auroral data), using the Kamide et al. (1981) magnetogram inversion technique; an optimum conductivity was then chosen iteratively so that the resultant electric fields would become consistent with electric field deduced from ion drifts measured along the DE-2 orbit. It is demonstrated that, when analyzing the large-scale electrodynamics of individual substorms, statistical conductivity models are not fully adequate for use with the magnetogram inversion technique.
An aureole generated by a laser beam was studied. The strength of the signal redirected towards a sensor high above the surface by a combination of one scattering event in the marine boundary layer (mbl) and one single reflection event from the ocean surface was estimated. A model of mbl aerosol size distributions was used to estimate Mie scattering for a wide range of meteorolocial conditions. The sea surface reflection was determined from a Gaussian model of the wave slopes. These laser aureoles which were estimated over the wide range of conditions and were normalized by the reflected laser light were found to be highly correlated with the optical depth of the boundary layer. By estimating optical depth from the aureole, the Bernoulli-Riccati inversion of lidar return could be constrained and the inversion accuracy improved. A Monte Carlo program was developed to study the laser aureole generated by up to 8 orders of reflection and scattering. The aureole was generated by a narrow, 10 nsec laser pulse at 1.06 microns and measured by a receiver 10 km above the ocean surface. The original theoretical computation compared well with the Monte Carlo method. When multiple scattereffects were included, the normalized aureole was still highly correlated with the mbl optical depth over the range of conditions.
Over 5000 visual magnitude estimates of comet Halley were used as a data base for studying the factors which affect the distribution of visually estimated total magnitudes of comets. Observations made on eight selected days were studied. It is concluded that scatter in the magnitude data is a function of (in order of importance) observer experience, comet morphology, and instrumentation used. Experienced observers generally report the brightest magnitude estimates.
The photometric signature of a debris object can be useful in determining what the physical characteristics of a piece of debris are. We report on optical observations in multiple filters of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Our sample is taken from GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory (CTIO) 0.9-m for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R=15th magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. At this magnitude the distribution of observed angular rates changes significantly from that of brighter objects. There are two objectives: 1. Estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: brightness (magnitude) and angular rates. 2. Obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials. What is the faint debris likely to be? More than 90 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes for a sample of 50 objects have been obtained with the CTIO 0.9-m. For objects that do not show large brightness variations, the colors are largely redder than solar in both B-R and R-I. The width of the color distribution may be intrinsic to the nature of the surfaces, but also could be that we are seeing irregularly shaped objects and measuring the colors at different times with just one telescope. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface. We will compare our observations with models and laboratory measurements of selected surfaces.
The photometric signature of a debris object can be useful in determining what the physical characteristics of a piece of debris are. We report on optical observations in multiple filters of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Our sample is taken from GEO objects discovered in a survey with the University of Michigan's 0.6-m aperture Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope), and then followed up in real-time with the SMARTS (Small and Medium Aperture Research Telescope System) 0.9-m at CTIO for orbits and photometry. Our goal is to determine 6 parameter orbits and measure colors for all objects fainter than R = 15 th magnitude that are discovered in the MODEST survey. At this magnitude the distribution of observed angular rates changes significantly from that of brighter objects. There are two objectives: 1. Estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: brightness (magnitude) and angular rates. 2. Obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials. What is the faint debris likely to be? In this paper we report on the photometric results. For a sample of 50 objects, more than 90 calibrated sequences of R-B-V-I-R magnitudes have been obtained with the CTIO 0.9-m. For objects that do not show large brightness variations, the colors are largely redder than solar in both B-R and R-I. The width of the color distribution may be intrinsic to the nature of the surfaces, but also could be that we are seeing irregularly shaped objects and measuring the colors at different times with just one telescope. For a smaller sample of objects we have observed with synchronized CCD cameras on the two telescopes. The CTIO 0.9-m observes in B, and MODEST in R. The CCD cameras are electronically linked together so that the start time and duration of observations are the same to better than 50 milliseconds. Thus the B-R color is a true measure of the surface of the debris piece facing the telescopes for that observation. Any change in color reflects a real change in the debris surface.
A smooth empirical Bayes estimator is derived for the intensity parameter (hazard rate) in the Poisson distribution as used in life testing. The reliability function is also estimated either by using the empirical Bayes estimate of the parameter, or by obtaining the expectation of the reliability function. The behavior of the empirical Bayes procedure is studied through Monte Carlo simulation in which estimates of mean-squared errors of the empirical Bayes estimators are compared with those of conventional estimators such as minimum variance unbiased or maximum likelihood. Results indicate a significant reduction in mean-squared error of the empirical Bayes estimators over the conventional variety.
As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.
An approximate method for estimating the global distributions of the entropy fluxes flowing through the upper boundary of the climate system is introduced, and an estimate of the entropy exchange between the earth and space and the entropy production of the planet is provided. Entropy fluxes calculated from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment measurements show how the long-wave entropy flux densities dominate the total entropy fluxes at all latitudes compared with the entropy flux densities associated with reflected sunlight, although the short-wave flux densities are important in the context of clear sky-cloudy sky net entropy flux differences. It is suggested that the entropy production of the planet is both constant for the 36 months of data considered and very near its maximum possible value. The mean value of this production is 0.68 x 10 exp 15 W/K, and the amplitude of the annual cycle is approximately 1 to 2 percent of this value.
We report on optical observations of debris at geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) using two telescopes simultaneously at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile. The University of Michigan s 0.6/0.9-m Schmidt telescope MODEST (for Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope) was used in survey mode to find objects that potentially could be at GEO. Because GEO objects only appear in this telescope s field of view for an average of 5 minutes, a full six-parameter orbit can not be determined. Interrupting the survey for follow-up observations leads to incompleteness in the survey results. Instead, as objects are detected with MODEST, initial predictions assuming a circular orbit are done for where the object will be for the next hour, and the objects are reacquired as quickly as possible on the CTIO 0.9-m telescope. This second telescope follows-up during the first night and, if possible, over several more nights to obtain the maximum time arc possible, and the best six parameter orbit. Our goal is to obtain an initial orbit and calibrated colors for all detected objects fainter than R = 15th in order to estimate the orbital distribution of objects selected on the basis of two observational criteria: magnitude and angular rate. One objective is to estimate what fraction of objects selected on the basis of angular rate are not at GEO. A second objective is to obtain magnitudes and colors in standard astronomical filters (BVRI) for comparison with reflectance spectra of likely spacecraft materials.
Distributed parameter models of the Solar Array Flight Experiment, the Mini-MAST truss, and Space Station Freedom assembly are discussed. The distributed parameter approach takes advantage of (1) the relatively small number of model parameters associated with partial differential equation models of structural dynamics, (2) maximum-likelihood estimation using both prelaunch and on-orbit test data, (3) the inclusion of control system dynamics in the same equations, and (4) the incremental growth of the structural configurations. Maximum-likelihood parameter estimates for distributed parameter models were based on static compliance test results and frequency response measurements. Because the Space Station Freedom does not yet exist, the NASA Mini-MAST truss was used to test the procedure of modeling and parameter estimation. The resulting distributed parameter model of the Mini-MAST truss successfully demonstrated the approach taken. The computer program PDEMOD enables any configuration that can be represented by a network of flexible beam elements and rigid bodies to be remodeled.
We present a statistical survey of the latitudinal structure of the fast magnetosonic wave mode detected by the Van Allen Probes spanning the time interval of 21 September 2012 to 1 August 2014. We show that statistically, the latitudinal occurrence of the wave frequency (f) normalized by the local proton cyclotron frequency (f(sub cP)) has a distinct funnel-shaped appearance in latitude about the magnetic equator similar to that found in case studies. By comparing the observed E/B ratios with the model E/B ratio, using the observed plasma density and background magnetic field magnitude as input to the model E/B ratio, we show that this mode is consistent with the extra-ordinary (whistler) mode at wave normal angles (theta(sub k)) near 90 deg. Performing polarization analysis on synthetic waveforms composed from a superposition of extra-ordinary mode plane waves with theta(sub k) randomly chosen between 87 and 90 deg, we show that the uncertainty in the derived wave normal is substantially broadened, with a tail extending down to theta(sub k) of 60 deg, suggesting that another approach is necessary to estimate the true distribution of theta(sub k). We find that the histograms of the synthetically derived ellipticities and theta(sub k) are consistent with the observations of ellipticities and theta(sub k) derived using polarization analysis.We make estimates of the median equatorial theta(sub k) by comparing observed and model ray tracing frequency-dependent probability occurrence with latitude and give preliminary frequency dependent estimates of the equatorial theta(sub k) distribution around noon and 4 R(sub E), with the median of approximately 4 to 7 deg from 90 deg at f/f(sub cP) = 2 and dropping to approximately 0.5 deg from 90 deg at f/f(sub cP) = 30. The occurrence of waves in this mode peaks around noon near the equator at all radial distances, and we find that the overall intensity of these waves increases with AE*, similar to findings of other studies.
A test area along the NW Coast of Africa was used during the Skylab mission to study the distribution of temperature and plankton. The S190B Earth Terrain Camera with a spectral film response of 0.4-0.7 micrometers allowed qualitative estimates of the distribution patterns of suspended material. Differentiation between inorganic particles and phytoplankton could be made by comparing the green band and the red band of the S190A Camera System. The pictorial display of data obtained from the S191 scanning radiometer in the 10-11 micrometer atmospheric window allowed a detailed interpretation of the temperature distribution in the area where cold upwelled water reaches the euphotic zone. The comparison between infrared data and the imageries taken simultaneously indicated the origin of the cold water as well as the pathway within the Canary current. A fish survey carried out almost simultaneously in the area, by echosounding, showed high correlation between the position of good fishing grounds and the distribution of plankton as detected by remote sensing detectors on Skylab.
Land-mobile satellite propagation measurements were implemented at L Band (1.5 GHz) in South-Eastern Australia during an 11 day period in October 1988. Transmissions (CW) from both the Japanese ETS-5 and INMARSAT Pacific geostationary satellites were accessed. Previous measurements in this series were performed at both L Band (1.5 GHz) and UHF (870 MHz) in Central Maryland, North-Central Colorado, and the southern United States. The objectives of the Australian campaign were to expand the data base acquired in the U.S. to another continent, to validate a U.S. derived empirical model for estimating the fade distribution, to establish the effects of directive antennas, to assess the isolation between co- and cross-polarized transmissions, to derive estimates of fade as well as non-fade durations, and to evaluate diversity reception. All these objectives were met.
In this paper a modified importance sampling technique for improving the convergence of Importance Sampling is given. By using this approach to estimate low false alarm rates in radar simulations, the number of Monte Carlo runs can be reduced significantly. For one-dimensional exponential, Weibull, and Rayleigh distributions, a uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator is obtained. For Gaussian distribution the estimator in this approach is uniformly better than that of previously known Importance Sampling approach. For a cell averaging system, by combining this technique and group sampling, the reduction of Monte Carlo runs for a reference cell of 20 and false alarm rate of lE-6 is on the order of 170 as compared to the previously known Importance Sampling approach.