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At least 325 records · Page 18

Using Satellite Observations of Cloud Vertical Distribution to Improve Global Model Estimates of Cloud Radiative Effect on Key Tropospheric Oxidants

Radiative effect of clouds is one of the major factors that affect tropospheric OH. Large differences in cloud distributions among current (chemistry-climate or chemical transport) models could contribute significantly to the wide model spread of tropospheric OH, which was reported by the ACCMIP activity (Voulgarakis et al., ACP 2013). CCCM, a 3-D cloud data product developed at NASA Langley and merged from multiple A-Train satellite observations, provides unprecedentedly strong constraints on the vertical distribution of clouds and therefore simulated effects of clouds on key tropospheric oxidants.

Liu, Hongyu↗

Distributed Load Shedding Application Architecture and Bi-Level Predictive Estimator Algorithm

Increasing penetrations of distributed renewables are decreasing the effectiveness of traditional decentralized under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes. As more distribution circuits begin to back-feed the transmission system, operation of traditional UFLS may exacerbate frequency instability. This paper presents the conceptual framework for a data-rich environment to coordinate UFLS across multiple distribution providers based on the laminar coordination framework in order to ensure optimal adaptive setting of UFLS relays. Communication and control are enabled through a distributed implementation of the IEC 61968-1 Common Information Model message bus structure. In addition to the proposed architecture, a novel adaptive UFLS scheme informed by a bi-level state estimator to create optimal relay setpoints is introduced. Initial simulation results are presented for the IEEE 14-bus test system on scenarios leading to mis-operation of traditional UFLS.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

Microstructure-Based Estimation of Strength and Ductility Distributions for \(\alpha +\beta \) Titanium Alloys

Titanium alloys are processed to develop a wide range of microstructure configurations and therefore material properties. While these properties are typically measured experimentally, a framework for property prediction could greatly enhance alloy design and manufacturing. In this work, a microstructure-sensitive framework is presented for the prediction of strength and ductility as well as estimates of the bounds in variability for these properties. The framework explicitly considers distributions of microstructure via new approaches for instantiation of structure in synthetic samples. The parametric evaluation strategy, including the finite element simulation package FEpX, is used to create and test virtual polycrystalline samples to evaluate the variability bounds of mechanical properties in Ti-6Al-4V. Critical parameters for the property evaluation framework are provided by measurements of single crystal properties and advanced characterization of microstructure and slip system strengths in 2D and 3D. Property distributions for yield strength and ductility are presented, along with the validation and verification steps undertaken. Comparisons between strain localization and slip activity in virtual samples and in experimental grain-scale strain measurements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aqueous Bromide Discharges from U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants: Points of Origin, Concentration Ranges, and Effluent Treatment Costs

Bromide discharges from coal-fired power plants have received increased attention from regulatory bodies due to their contribution to the formation of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in downstream drinking water treatment plants. Here, this paper characterizes the relative contributions of bromide from coal feedstocks and bromine-based mercury control processes, estimates the distribution of bromide concentrations at 85 active coal-fired power plants across the United States (U.S.) with wet flue gas desulfurization units, and estimates the cost of bromide removal from wastewater discharge using year 2020 data. Bromide discharges are estimated at the plant level using a combination of the reported coal rank and composition combusted, estimates of bromide addition in mercury control techniques under multiple halogen addition scenarios, and the estimated flue gas desulfurization (FGD) wastewater flow rate. The median, simulated plant-level estimation of total FGD wastewater flow is 18.3 gallons/min at a bromide concentration of 319 mg/L, equivalent to ~11.6 tonnes/year of bromide discharges to the environment. Next, we evaluated the expected cost of employing the best available technology (BAT) to control bromide discharges in FGD wastewater to prevent contributions to DBP formation. Treatment would need to remove more than 99.8% of bromide to reach the 0.2 mg/L voluntary incentive program (VIP) limit. The total cost of treatment depends on whether disposal is on- or off-site; the average costs for all plants combined come to an average of $110 million ($95.2/kgal) in 2021 U.S. dollars for on-site disposal, or $134 million ($115/kgal) for off-site disposal.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A census of the asteroid belt

Observations obtained by the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) during its ten month mission in 1983 were originally processed by the Asteroid Data Analysis System (ADAS) to search for 3453 asteroids with known orbital elements as of September 1985. A total of 1811 had one or more observations of sufficient reliability to be accepted. These results were released in October 1986. Recently IRAS data were reprocessed to increase both the number of recognized asteroid observations and their reliability. As input 7311 asteroids were used with known orbital elements as of December 1990. This processor is referred to as the IRAS Minor Planet Survey (IMPS). As of April 1991 approximately 3000 asteroids had been identified with one or more acceptable observations. These results were used to derive the total number of asteroids with diameters greater than 1 km. In addition to being an interesting piece of information in itself these size-frequency distributions produce bias-correction factors which, for example, will be used in investigations of the physical properties of asteroid dynamical families and to estimate the distribution of the taxonomic classes as a function of heliocentric distance.

Tedesco, E. F.↗

Climate Impacts of Convective Cloud Microphysics in NCAR CAM5

Here we improved the treatments of convective cloud microphysics in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) by 1) implementing new terminal velocity parameterizations for convective ice and snow particles, 2) adding graupel microphysics, 3) considering convective snow detrainment, and 4) enhancing rain initiation and generation rate in warm clouds. Furthermore, we evaluated the impacts of improved microphysics on simulated global climate, focusing on simulated cloud radiative forcing, graupel microphysics, convective cloud ice amount, and tropical precipitation. Compared to CAM5.3 with the default convective microphysics, the too-strong cloud shortwave radiative forcing due primarily to excessive convective cloud liquid is largely alleviated over the tropics and midlatitudes after rain initiation and generation rate is enhanced, in better agreement with the CERES-EBAF estimates. Geographic distributions of graupel occurrence are reasonably simulated over continents; whereas the graupel occurrence remains highly uncertain over the oceanic storm-track regions. When evaluated against the CloudSat–CALIPSO estimates, the overestimation of convective ice mass is alleviated with the improved convective ice microphysics, among which adding graupel microphysics and the accompanying increase in hydrometeor fall speed play the most important role. The probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity is sensitive to warm rain processes in convective clouds, and enhancement in warm rain production shifts the PDF toward heavier precipitation, which agrees better with the TRMM observations. Common biases of overestimating the light rain frequency and underestimating the heavy rain frequency in GCMs are mitigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers: Preprint

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network--that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest--in the sense of electrical distance--from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for real-time operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Microwave power transmission system studies. Volume 2: Introduction, organization, environmental and spaceborne systems analyses

Introduction, organization, analyses, conclusions, and recommendations for each of the spaceborne subsystems are presented. Environmental effects - propagation analyses are presented with appendices covering radio wave diffraction by random ionospheric irregularities, self-focusing plasma instabilities and ohmic heating of the D-region. Analyses of dc to rf conversion subsystems and system considerations for both the amplitron and the klystron are included with appendices for the klystron covering cavity circuit calculations, output power of the solenoid-focused klystron, thermal control system, and confined flow focusing of a relativistic beam. The photovoltaic power source characteristics are discussed as they apply to interfacing with the power distribution flow paths, magnetic field interaction, dc to rf converter protection, power distribution including estimates for the power budget, weights, and costs. Analyses for the transmitting antenna consider the aperture illumination and size, with associated efficiencies and ground power distributions. Analyses of subarray types and dimensions, attitude error, flatness, phase error, subarray layout, frequency tolerance, attenuation, waveguide dimensional tolerances, mechanical including thermal considerations are included. Implications associated with transportation, assembly and packaging, attitude control and alignment are discussed. The phase front control subsystem, including both ground based pilot signal driven adaptive and ground command approaches with their associated phase errors, are analyzed.

Maynard, O. E.↗

Probing thick vegetation canopies with a field microwave scatterometer

with a narrow-beam field microwave scatterometer having a variable slant range and a small slant-range resolution, investigators can estimate the distribution of backscattering sources in a medium as a function of slant range. From this, they can calculate the backscattering coefficient. With less confidence, they can estimate the volume extinction coefficient, the volume density of backscattering cross sections, the transmittance, and the backscattering coefficient of a semiinfinite medium with the same volumetric microwave properties. These parameters allow one to understand the interactions of microwaves with media such as vegetation canopies with their substrates.

Paris, J. F.↗

Characteristics of the Dust-Plasma Interaction Near Enceladus' South Pole

We present RPWS Langmuir probe data from the third Enceladus flyby (E3) showing (he presence of dusty plasma near Enceladus' South Pole. There is a sharp rise in both the electron and ion number densities when the spacecraft traverses through Enceladus plume. The ion density near Enceladus is found to increase abruptly from about 10(exp 2) cm (exp -3) before the closest approach to 10(exp 5) cm (exp -3) just 30 s after the closest approach, an amount two orders of magnitude higher than the electron density. Assuming that the inconsistency between the electron and ion number densities is due to the presence of dust particles that are collecting the missing electron charges, we present dusty plasma characteristics down to sub-micron particle sizes. By assuming a differential dust number density for a range in dust sizes and by making use of Langmuir probe data, the dust densities for certain lower limits in dust size distribution were estimated. In order to achieve the dust densities of micrometer and larger sized grains comparable to the ones reported in the literature. we show that the power law size distribution must hold down to at least 0.03 micron such that the total differential number density is dominated by the smallest sub-micron sized grains. The total dust number density in Enceladus' plume is of the order of l0(exp 2) cm(exp -3) reducing to 1 cm(exp -3) in the E- ring. The dust density for micrometer and larger sized grains is estimated to be about 10(exp -4) cm(exp -3) in the plume while it is about 10(exp -6) - 10(exp -7) cm(exp -3) in the E-ring. Dust charge for micron sized grains is estimated to be about eight thousand electron charges reducing to below one hundred electron charges for 0.03 micron sized grains. The effective dusty plasma Debye length is estimated and compared with intergrain distance as well as the electron Debye length. The maximum dust charging time of 1.4 h is found for 0.03 11mmicron sized grains just 1 min before the closest approach. The charging time decreases substantially in the plume where it is only a fraction of a second for 1 micron sized grains, 1 s for 0.l micron sized grains and about 10 s for 0.03 micron sized grains.

Shafiq, Muhammad↗

Statistical distribution of time to crack initiation and initial crack size using service data

Crack growth inspection data gathered during the service life of the C-130 Hercules airplane were used in conjunction with a crack propagation rule to estimate the distribution of crack initiation times and of initial crack sizes. A Bayesian statistical approach was used to calculate the fraction of undetected initiation times as a function of the inspection time and the reliability of the inspection procedure used.

Heller, R. A.↗

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signature estimation from satellite multispectral scanner data

A method for estimating signatures from satellite multispectral scanner data for areas containing mixtures of specified object classes is presented and evaluated. Each signature is assumed to be a Gaussian distribution. The estimation procedure is simple, and the estimates represent maximum likelihood estimates. Formulae to compute variances for an estimated signature are also given.

Crane, R. B.↗

The redshift and optical structure of the X-ray galaxy cluster A478

Observational results are reported concerning the optical properties of the X-ray cluster of galaxies A478. A cluster redshift of 0.09 is determined, which implies a cluster X-ray luminosity of 10 to the 45th power erg/s over the energy range from 2 to 6 keV. The cluster is classified as type cD, the center of the cluster is found to be consistent with the position of the cD galaxy, and it is shown that the surface distribution of the galaxies in the cluster is well described by a bounded isothermal gas-sphere model. The core radius of the galaxy distribution is estimated to be about 1.5 arcmin, corresponding to approximately 0.20 Mpc for a Hubble constant of 50 km/s per Mpc. It is noted that the observed galaxy distribution is somewhat asymmetric, being elongated along the NE-SW direction.

Bahcall, N. A.↗

Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites

This analysis estimates collision risks between tracked satellites based on the statistically expected collision rate _Nc and number of collisions Nc, which are closely related to the collision probability Pc. For isolated encounters, Nc equals Pc. For multi-encounter interactions, Nc can exceed Pc and is significantly easier to approximate semi-analytically. Estimating Nc requires integrating the collision rate over time throughout an interaction, with each required _Nc value calculated as a statistical expectation value based on the uncertainty distributions of initial orbital states. The uncertainty distributions are estimated from orbit determination analyses of satellite trajectory measurements. The formulation accounts for the nonlinear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives Nc and _Nc expressions for Monte Carlo simulations as well as semi-analytical approximations for single- and multi-encounter interactions.

Collision Rates↗

Developing an Aircraft-Based Angular Distribution Model of Solar Reflection from Wildfire Smoke to Aid Satellite-Based Radiative Flux Estimation

This study examines the angular distribution of scattered solar radiation associated with wildfire smoke aerosols observed over boreal forests in Canada during the ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) campaign. First, it estimates smoke radiative parameters (550 nm optical depth of 3.9 and single scattering albedo of 0.90) using quasi-simultaneous multiangular and multispectral airborne measurements by the Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR). Next, the paper estimates the broadband top-of-atmosphere radiances that a satellite instrument such as the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) could have observed, given the narrowband CAR measurements made from an aircraft circling about a kilometer above the smoke layer. This estimation includes both an atmospheric correction that accounts for the atmosphere above the aircraft and a narrowband-to-broadband conversion. The angular distribution of estimated radiances is found to be substantially different than the angular model used in the operational data processing of CERES observations over the same area. This is because the CERES model is a monthly average model that was constructed using observations taken under smoke-free conditions. Finally, a sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated angular distribution remains accurate for a fairly wide range of smoke and underlying surface parameters. Overall, results from this work suggest that airborne CAR measurements can bring some substantial improvements in the accuracy of satellite-based radiative flux estimates.

Varnai, Tamas↗

Multi-modal Free-moving Data Fusion (MFDF) v1.0

Multi-modal Free-moving Data Fusion (MFDF) is a python package that implements low and high-level functionality for performing qualitative and quantitative gamma-ray imaging analyses. Such analyses enable the use of gamma-ray spectrometers and/or imagers to estimate the distribution and quantity of radiological materials in an environment. Free-moving 3D imaging requires additional information about the 3D trajectory and orientation of the system, however all of these methods can be applied to 2D static gamma-ray imaging as well. The package includes methods (MLEM and MAP) for distributed source reconstruction, methods (PSL) for point source reconstruction, the ability to ingest and utilize quantitative detector response functions (for absolute analyses), and the ability to perform 3D estimation of dose-rates from quantitative reconstructions.

Joshi, Tenzing↗