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At least 325 records · Page 18

Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes

ABSTRACT Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant global health threat, causing severe liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We characterized HBV DNA kinetics in primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) over 32 days post-inoculation (p.i.) and modified ourin-vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to gain insights into the HBV lifecycle and spreadin vitro. Parallel PHH cultures were mock-treated or treated with HBV entry inhibitor Myr-preS1 (6.25 µg/mL) was initiated 24 h p.i. In untreated PHH, three viral DNA kinetic patterns were identified: (i) an initial decline, followed by (ii) rapid amplification and (iii) slower amplification/accumulation. In the presence of Myr-preS1, viral DNA and infected cell numbers in phase 3 were effectively blocked, with minimal to no increase. This suggests that phase 2 represents viral amplification in initially infected cells, while phase 3 corresponds to viral spread to naïve cells. The ABM reproduced well the HBV kinetic patterns observed and predicted that the viral eclipse phase lasts between 18 and 38 h. After the eclipse phase, the viral production rate increased over time, starting with a slow production cycle of 1 virion per day, which gradually accelerated to 1 virion per hour after 3 days. Approximately 4 days later, virion production reached a steady state production rate of 4 virions/h. The estimated median efficacy of Myr-preS1 in blocking HBV spread was 91% (range: 90–92%). The HBV kinetics and the predicted estimates of the HBV eclipse phase duration and HBV production cycles in PHH are similar to those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers. IMPORTANCE While primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) are the most physiologically relevant culture system for studying HBV infectionin vitro, a comprehensive understanding of HBV infection kinetics and spread in PHH is lacking. In this study, we characterize HBV viral kinetics and modify ourin vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to provide quantitative insights into the HBV production cycle and viral spread in PHH. The ABM provides an estimate of the HBV eclipse phase duration, HBV production cycles, and Myr-preS1 efficacy in blocking HBV spread in PHH. The results resemble those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers, demonstrating that estimated HBV infection kinetic parameters in PHHin vitromirror those observed in thein vivoHBV infection chimeric mouse model.

Virology↗

Epidemiologic Factors Supporting Triage of Infected Dog Patients Admitted to a Veterinary Hospital Biological Isolation and Containment Unit

The teaching hospital of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Lisbon hosts a Biological Isolation and Containment Unit (BICU) for the hospitalization of both confirmed and suspected animals of an infectious disease. This study targets the BICU dog population to identify and characterize the most frequent infectious diseases recorded in a 7-year period. Several epidemiologic factors were analyzed for their significance to triage infected cases. During the study period, 534 dogs were admitted, of which 263 (49.3%) had a confirmed infectious disease diagnosis: parvovirosis (49.4%; n = 130); leptospirosis (21.7%; n = 57); multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacterial infection; (10.6%; n = 28), and canine distemper (9.9%; n = 26). Several potential risk factors for these diseases were identified: age under 2 years old (p < 0.001), incomplete vaccination for parvovirosis (p < 0.001), age ≥ 10 years old (p < 0.001), and the presence of concomitant disorders for MDR-infected cases (p = 0.03). Logistic regression models were constructed to classify cases and controls. The sensitivity and specificity estimates were very high (>0.83) for parvovirosis, MDR, and distemper infections. A lower sensitivity (0.77) was obtained for identifying cases with leptospirosis. In conclusion, infectious diseases are frequent, hence, it is essential to decrease their occurrence through effective preventive measures such as vaccination. The constructed logistic models can also help in triaging admitted dogs with a potential infectious disease.

Machado, Inês Cunha (ORCID:0000000238151125)↗

Evaluating county-level lung cancer incidence from environmental radiation exposure, PM 2.5 , and other exposures with regression and machine learning models

Characterizing the interplay between exposures shaping the human exposome is vital for uncovering the etiology of complex diseases. For example, cancer risk is modified by a range of multifactorial external environmental exposures. Environmental, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors all shape lung cancer risk. However, epidemiological studies of radon aimed at identifying populations at high risk for lung cancer often fail to consider multiple exposures simultaneously. For example, moderating factors, such as PM 2.5 , may affect the transport of radon progeny to lung tissue. This ecological analysis leveraged a population-level dataset from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results data (2013–17) to simultaneously investigate the effect of multiple sources of low-dose radiation (gross γ activity and indoor radon) and PM 2.5 on lung cancer incidence rates in the USA. County-level factors (environmental, sociodemographic, lifestyle) were controlled for, and Poisson regression and random forest models were used to assess the association between radon exposure and lung and bronchus cancer incidence rates. Tree-based machine learning (ML) method perform better than traditional regression: Poisson regression: 6.29/7.13 (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE), 12.70/12.77 (root mean square error, RMSE); Poisson random forest regression: 1.22/1.16 (MAPE), 8.01/8.15 (RMSE). The effect of PM 2.5 increased with the concentration of environmental radon, thereby confirming findings from previous studies that investigated the possible synergistic effect of radon and PM 2.5 on health outcomes. In summary, the results demonstrated (1) a need to consider multiple environmental exposures when assessing radon exposure’s association with lung cancer risk, thereby highlighting (1) the importance of an exposomics framework and (2) that employing ML models may capture the complex interplay between environmental exposures and health, as in the case of indoor radon exposure and lung cancer incidence.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Inferring protein expression changes from mRNA in Alzheimer’s dementia using deep neural networks

Identifying the molecular systems and proteins that modify the progression of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) is central to drug target selection. However, discordance between mRNA and protein abundance, and the scarcity of proteomic data, has limited our ability to advance candidate targets that are mainly based on gene expression. Therefore, by using a deep neural network that predicts protein abundance from mRNA expression, here we attempt to track the early protein drivers of ADRD. Specifically, by applying the clei2block deep learning model to 1192 brain RNA-seq samples, we identify protein modules and disease-associated expression changes that were not directly observed at the mRNA level. Moreover, pseudo-temporal trajectory inference based on the predicted proteome became more closely correlated with cognitive decline and hippocampal atrophy compared to RNA-based trajectories. This suggests that the predicted changes in protein expression could provide a better molecular representation of ADRD progression. Furthermore, overlaying clinical traits on protein pseudotime trajectory identifies protein modules altered before cognitive impairment. These results demonstrate how our method can be used to identify potential early protein drivers and possible drug targets for treating and/or preventing ADRD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Mechanism of allosteric inhibition of human p97/VCP ATPase and its disease mutant by triazole inhibitors

Human p97 ATPase is crucial in various cellular processes, making it a target for inhibitors to treat cancers, neurological, and infectious diseases. Triazole allosteric p97 inhibitors have been demonstrated to match the efficacy of CB-5083, an ATP-competitive inhibitor, in cellular models. However, the mechanism is not well understood. This study systematically investigates the structures of new triazole inhibitors bound to both wild-type and disease mutant forms of p97 and measures their effects on function. These inhibitors bind at the interface of the D1 and D2 domains of each p97 subunit, shifting surrounding helices and altering the loop structures near the C-terminal α2 G helix to modulate domain-domain communications. A key structural moiety of the inhibitor affects the rotameric conformations of interacting side chains, indirectly modulating the N-terminal domain conformation in p97 R155H mutant. The differential effects of inhibitor binding to wild-type and mutant p97 provide insights into drug design with enhanced specificity, particularly for oncology applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort

Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

6-minute walk test↗

Indole-3-carbinol ameliorates necroptosis and inflammation of intestinal epithelial cells in mice with ulcerative colitis by activating aryl hydrocarbon receptor

Highlights: • AHR activated by I3C plays an important role in protecting IECs from necroptosis and inflammation, in vivo and in vitro. • AHR could ubiquitinate RIPK1, promote IAPs expression and inhibit NF-κB activation in NCM460 cells. • I3C is a good candidate as a natural product to prevent and treat UC. Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a disease characterized by inflammation and disruption of the intestinal epithelial barrier. Necroptosis plays a critical role in disease progression. Indole-3-carbinol (I3C), a natural dietary agonist of aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), has shown alleviating effects on UC. However, its mechanisms of action have not been comprehensively elucidated. Therefore, we aimed at investigating the protective role of I3C in DSS-induced colitis mice models. I3C significantly ameliorated body weight loss, colon length shortening and colonic pathological damage in colitis mice, reduced disease activity index (DAI) and histological (HI) scores, as well as alleviated colonic necroptosis and inflammation. In vitro, I3C attenuated necroptosis and inflammation of colonoids and NCM460 cells. AHR, activated by I3C, inhibits activation of receptor-interacting protein kinase 1 (RIPK1) and the subsequent assembly of necrosome in a time-dependent manner, as well as suppressing NF-κB activation and decreasing TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-8 expression. Silencing of AHR aggravated necroptosis and inflammation of NCM460 cells, and did not be ameliorated by I3C. Furthermore, AHR activation induces the expression of inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (IAPs) and the ubiquitination of RIPK1. In conclusion, I3C exerts a protective effect in DSS-induced colitis mice models by alleviating the necroptosis and inflammation of IECs through activating AHR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model

Abstract A combination of accelerated population growth and severe droughts has created pressure on food security and driven the development of irrigation schemes across sub‐Saharan Africa. Irrigation has been associated with increased malaria risk, but risk prediction remains difficult due to the heterogeneity of irrigation and the environment. While investigating transmission dynamics is helpful, malaria models cannot be applied directly in irrigated regions as they typically rely only on rainfall as a source of water to quantify larval habitats. By coupling a hydrologic model with an agent‐based malaria model for a sugarcane plantation site in Arjo, Ethiopia, we demonstrated how incorporating hydrologic processes to estimate larval habitats can affect malaria transmission. Using the coupled model, we then examined the impact of an existing irrigation scheme on malaria transmission dynamics. The inclusion of hydrologic processes increased the variability of larval habitat area by around two‐fold and resulted in reduction in malaria transmission by 60%. In addition, irrigation increased all habitat types in the dry season by up to 7.4 times. It converted temporary and semi‐permanent habitats to permanent habitats during the rainy season, which grew by about 24%. Consequently, malaria transmission was sustained all‐year round and intensified during the main transmission season, with the peak shifted forward by around 1 month. Lastly, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of adult vectors under the effect of irrigation by resolving habitat heterogeneity. These findings could help larval source management by identifying transmission hotspots and prioritizing resources for malaria elimination planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Electrocardiographic changes predate Parkinson’s disease onset

Autonomic nervous system involvement precedes the motor features of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Our goal was to develop a proof-of-concept model for identifying subjects at high risk of developing PD by analysis of cardiac electrical activity. We used standard 10-s electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings of 60 subjects from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study including 10 with prevalent PD, 25 with prodromal PD, and 25 controls who never developed PD. Various methods were implemented to extract features from ECGs including simple heart rate variability (HRV) metrics, commonly used signal processing methods, and a Probabilistic Symbolic Pattern Recognition (PSPR) method. Extracted features were analyzed via stepwise logistic regression to distinguish between prodromal cases and controls. Stepwise logistic regression selected four features from PSPR as predictors of PD. The final regression model built on the entire dataset provided an area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval of 0.90 [0.80, 0.99]. The five-fold cross-validation process produced an average AUC of 0.835 [0.831, 0.839]. We conclude that cardiac electrical activity provides important information about the likelihood of future PD not captured by classical HRV metrics. Machine learning applied to ECGs may help identify subjects at high risk of having prodromal PD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Defining blood hematology reference values in female pig-tailed macaques ( Macaca nemestrina ) using the Isolation Forest algorithm

Background: Pig-tailed macaques (PTMs) are commonly used as preclinical models to assess antiretroviral drugs for HIV prevention research. Drug toxicities and disease pathologies are often preceded by changes in blood hematology. To better assess the safety profile of pharmaceuticals, we defined normal ranges of hematological values in PTMs using an Isolation Forest (iForest) algorithm. Methods: Eighteen female PTMs were evaluated. Blood was collected 1–24 times per animal for a total of 159 samples. Complete blood counts were performed, and iForest was used to analyze the hematology data to detect outliers. Results: Median, IQR, and ranges were calculated for 13 hematology parameters. From all samples, 22 outliers were detected. These outliers were excluded from the reference index. Conclusions: Using iForest, we defined a normal range for hematology parameters in female PTMs. This reference index can be a valuable tool for future studies evaluating drug toxicities in PTMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Interaction of Amphiphilic Mycobacterial Lipoarabinomannan with Lipoproteins: Implications for Blood Based Diagnosis

Currently, over one-third of the global population is infected with tuberculosis (TB), one of the world’s most deadly infectious diseases. The current gold standard for TB diagnosis is microbiological culture, which can take up to 6-8 weeks, which is not conducive to timely treatment. There are no reliable diagnostics for TB. Disease manifestation and outcome of diagnostic tests for TB is influenced by co-morbidities such as HIV co-infection, further complicating diagnostics development. Thus, there is a need for reliable diagnostics for TB. This is especially true in pediatric populations where the differential disease presentation further complicates outcomes. This dissertation describes the development and evaluation of new tailored methods-lipoprotein capture and membrane insertion- for the discriminative detection of an amphiphilic mycobacterial biomarker, lipoarabinomannan (LAM), for diagnosis of TB in adult and pediatric populations. LAM is released by Mycobacterium tuberculosis during active infection and associates with serum lipoproteins such as high and low density lipoproteins (HDL/LDL) in the human host. The guiding hypothesis of this work is that the vi sequestration of LAM in immune complexes and by lipoprotein carriers in the host contributes to difficulty in detection of the amphiphilic antigen in blood. To this end, we have evaluated the use of tailored amphiphile detection assays to process and measure sequestered LAM in host blood, and examined the application of this methodology in adults and children with TB disease. In addition, we have developed and studied an in vitro cell model to further extrapolate the impact of association of LAM with host carriers on its ability to induce innate immune processes, in order to better refine and design strategies for its direct detection. Overall, our conclusions indicate that the amphiphilic biochemistry of LAM and its interaction with lipoproteins is a feature which should be taken into account for the effective development of diagnostics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ovine Herpesvirus 2 Glycoprotein B Complementation Restores Infectivity to a Bovine Herpesvirus 4 gB-Null Mutant

Ovine herpesvirus 2 (OvHV-2) and bovine herpesvirus 4 (BoHV-4) are gamma herpesviruses that belong to the genera Macavirus and Rhadinovirus, respectively. As with all herpesviruses, both OvHV-2 and BoHV-4 express glycoprotein B (gB), which plays an essential role in the infection of host cells. In that context, it has been demonstrated that a BoHV-4 gB-null mutant is unable to infect host cells. In this study, we used homologous recombination to insert OvHV-2 ORF 8, encoding gB, into the BoHV-4 gB-null mutant genome, creating a chimeric BoHV-4 virus carrying and expressing OvHV-2 gB (BoHV-4∆gB/OvHV-2-gB) that was infectious and able to replicate in vitro. We then evaluated BoHV-4∆gB/OvHV-2-gB as a potential vaccine candidate for sheep-associated malignant catarrhal fever (SA-MCF), a fatal disease of ungulates caused by OvHV-2. Using rabbits as a laboratory model for MCF, we assessed the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of BoHV-4∆gB/OvHV-2-gB in an immunization/challenge trial. The results showed that while BoHV-4∆gB/OvHV-2-gB was safe and induced OvHV-2 gB-specific humoral immune responses, immunization conferred only 28.5% protection upon challenge with OvHV-2. Therefore, future studies should focus on alternative strategies to express OvHV-2 proteins to develop an effective vaccine against SA-MCF.

Moré, Daniela D. (ORCID:0000000237606757)↗

Using active matter to introduce spatial heterogeneity to the susceptible infected recovered model of epidemic spreading

Abstract The widely used susceptible-infected-recovered (S-I-R) epidemic model assumes a uniform, well-mixed population, and incorporation of spatial heterogeneities remains a major challenge. Understanding failures of the mixing assumption is important for designing effective disease mitigation approaches. We combine a run-and-tumble self-propelled active matter system with an S-I-R model to capture the effects of spatial disorder. Working in the motility-induced phase separation regime both with and without quenched disorder, we find two epidemic regimes. For low transmissibility, quenched disorder lowers the frequency of epidemics and increases their average duration. For high transmissibility, the epidemic spreads as a front and the epidemic curves are less sensitive to quenched disorder; however, within this regime it is possible for quenched disorder to enhance the contagion by creating regions of higher particle densities. We discuss how this system could be realized using artificial swimmers with mobile optical traps operated on a feedback loop.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on air quality in southern California: implications for future control policies

Abstract. In response to the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), California issued statewide stay-at-home orders, bringing about abrupt and dramatic reductions in air pollutant emissions. This crisis offers us an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of emission reductions in terms of air quality. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in combination with surface observations to study the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures on air quality in southern California. Based on activity level statistics and satellite observations, we estimate the sectoral emission changes during the lockdown. Due to the reduced emissions, the population-weighted concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decrease by 15 % in southern California. The emission reductions contribute 68 % of the PM2.5 concentration decrease before and after the lockdown, while meteorology variations contribute the remaining 32 %. Among all chemical compositions, the PM2.5 concentration decrease due to emission reductions is dominated by nitrate and primary components. For O3 concentrations, the emission reductions cause a decrease in rural areas but an increase in urban areas; the increase can be offset by a 70 % emission reduction in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These findings suggest that a strengthened control on primary PM2.5 emissions and a well-balanced control on nitrogen oxides and VOC emissions are needed to effectively and sustainably alleviate PM2.5 and O3 pollution in southern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiobiology, Omics and Microdosimetry of Systemic and Targeted Radiotherapeutics Workshop

The Radiobiology, Omics and Microdosimetry of Systemic and Targeted Radiotherapeutics Workshop fostered engagement across disciplines on critical topics that impact the development of targeted radionuclide therapies, bringing together scientific and medical professionals actively involved in radiotherapeutic design, optimization testing, patient treatment, and clinical trials along with basic science researchers, whose novel techniques have the potential to further our understanding of targeted radionuclide therapy. Discussion of the applications of radiotherapeutics to pediatric and adult, brain, prostate and blood cancers, and metastatic disease allowed scientific research to be presented in the context of real-world medical applications and provided an important backdrop to the basic research performed in computers, laboratories, and animal facilities. The workshop format, presentations, and panel discussions were designed to consider a holistic approach to the development of systemic and targeted radiotherapies, integrating radiobiology and microdosimetry, biological assessments on the microscale, and physiologically relevant models of tumor and tissue microenvironments. Important needs highlighted in the workshop include better models to assess the biological effects of radionuclide therapy, novel strategies to target radiotherapeutics to disease sites with high specificity, and new dosimetry techniques that address the importance of tumor microenvironments.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Feed status and skin injury modulate immunopathology, global gene expression, and survival in channel catfish during virulent Aeromonas hydrophila infection

Introduction VirulentAeromonas hydrophilais a major pathogen in channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus), that causes motileAeromonassepticemia and significant economic losses. We investigated the effect of feeding status and skin integrity on the host immune response, disease survival, and gastrointestinal pathology following a vAh challenge. Methods Using a bath immersion model, channel catfish were divided into four treatment groups: fin clipped and fed (FCF), fin clipped but not fed (FCN), not fin clipped but fed (NCF), and not fin clipped nor fed (NCN) alongside non-challenged control groups The FCF and NCF groups were fed 2 h prior to the challenge, but the FCN and NCN groups were not. Survival analysis, histopathological assessment, and RNA sequencing were conducted across groups at different time intervals throughout the vAh challenge. Results Survival rates were lowest in the FCF and FCN groups (30% and 23% survival, respectively), suggesting that both feeding and skin damage contributed to disease severity. Histopathological analyses revealed more severe intestinal and gastric lesions in fed groups, characterized by epithelial necrosis, hemorrhage, and edema. Transcriptomic analysis among the groups identified significant differentially expressed genes associated with inflammation, apoptosis, and metabolic stress, with notable upregulation of interleukin 1-beta (il-1β), and complement C3 (c3). Gene ontology enrichment highlighted distinct immune activation patterns between fed and unfed groups, with enhanced pathogen recognition and pro-inflammatory responses in unfed fish. Discussion These findings suggest feeding prior to infection may exacerbate disease pathology, potentially by creating a physiological state conducive to facilitate pathogen proliferation and dampened early immune responses, whereas short-term fasting appears to promote early immune activation. This study provides novel insights into the complex interplay between feed status, physical injury, and immune response to vAh infection.

Immunology↗

A Genome-Based Model to Predict the Virulence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Isolates

ABSTRACT: Variation in the genome of Pseudomonas aeruginosa , an important pathogen, can have dramatic impacts on the bacterium’s ability to cause disease. We therefore asked whether it was possible to predict the virulence of P. aeruginosa isolates based on their genomic content. We applied a machine learning approach to a genetically and phenotypically diverse collection of 115 clinical P. aeruginosa isolates using genomic information and corresponding virulence phenotypes in a mouse model of bacteremia. We defined the accessory genome of these isolates through the presence or absence of accessory genomic elements (AGEs), sequences present in some strains but not others. Machine learning models trained using AGEs were predictive of virulence, with a mean nested cross-validation accuracy of 75% using the random forest algorithm. However, individual AGEs did not have a large influence on the algorithm’s performance, suggesting instead that virulence predictions are derived from a diffuse genomic signature. These results were validated with an independent test set of 25 P. aeruginosa isolates whose virulence was predicted with 72% accuracy. Machine learning models trained using core genome single-nucleotide variants and whole-genome k-mers also predicted virulence. Our findings are a proof of concept for the use of bacterial genomes to predict pathogenicity in P. aeruginosa and highlight the potential of this approach for predicting patient outcomes. IMPORTANCE Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a clinically important Gram-negative opportunistic pathogen. P. aeruginosa shows a large degree of genomic heterogeneity both through variation in sequences found throughout the species (core genome) and through the presence or absence of sequences in different isolates (accessory genome). P. aeruginosa isolates also differ markedly in their ability to cause disease. In this study, we used machine learning to predict the virulence level of P. aeruginosa isolates in a mouse bacteremia model based on genomic content. We show that both the accessory and core genomes are predictive of virulence. This study provides a machine learning framework to investigate relationships between bacterial genomes and complex phenotypes such as virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗