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A neural network for determination of latent dimensionality in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) has proven to be a powerful unsupervised learning method for uncovering hidden features in complex and noisy datasets with applications in data mining, text recognition, dimension reduction, face recognition, anomaly detection, blind source separation, and many other fields. An important input for NMF is the latent dimensionality of the data, that is, the number of hidden features, K, present in the explored dataset. Unfortunately, and this quantity is rarely known a priori. The existing methods for determining latent dimensionality, such as Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD), are mostly heuristic and utilize different characteristics to estimate the number of hidden features. However, all of them require human presence to make a final determination of K. Here we utilize a supervised machine learning approach in combination with a recent method for model determination, called NMFk, to determine the number of hidden features automatically. NMFk performs a set of NMF simulations on an ensemble of matrices, obtained by bootstrapping the initial dataset, and estimates which K produces stable groups of latent features that reconstruct the initial dataset well. We then train a Multi-Layter Perceptron (MLP) classifier network to determine the correct number of latent features utilizing the statistics and characteristics of the NMF solution, obtained from NMFk. In order to train the MLP classifier, a training set of 58,660 matrices with predetermined latent features were factorized with NMFk. The MLP classifier in conjunction with NMFk maintains a greater than 95% success rate when applied to a held out test set. Additionally, when applied to two well-known benchmark datasets, the swimmer and MIT face data, NMFk/MLP correctly recovers the established number of hidden features. Finally, we compare the accuracy of our method to the ARD, AIC and Stability-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TU-FG-BRB-02: The Impact of Using Dual-Energy CT for Determining Proton Stopping Powers: Comparison Between Theory and Experiments

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical performance of dual-energy CT (DECT) in determining proton stopping power ratios (SPR) and demonstrate advantages over conventional single-energy CT (SECT). Methods: SECT and DECT scans of tissue-equivalent plastics as well as animal meat samples are performed with a Siemens SOMATOM Definition Flash. The methods of Schneider et al. (1996) and Bourque et al. (2014) are used to determine proton SPR on SECT and DECT images, respectively. Waterequivalent path length (WEPL) measurements of plastics and tissue samples are performed with a 195 MeV proton beam. WEPL values are determined experimentally using the depth-dose shift and dose extinction methods. Results: Comparison between CT-based and experimental WEPL is performed for 12 tissue-equivalent plastic as well as 6 meat boxes containing animal liver, kidney, heart, stomach, muscle and bones. For plastic materials, results show a systematic improvement in determining SPR with DECT, with a mean absolute error of 0.4% compared to 1.7% for SECT. For the meat samples, preliminary results show the ability for DECT to determine WEPL with a mean absolute value of 1.1% over all meat boxes. Conclusion: This work demonstrates the potential in using DECT for determining proton SPR with plastic materials in a clinical context. Further work is required to show the benefits of DECT for tissue samples. While experimental uncertainties could be a limiting factor to show the benefits of DECT over SECT for the meat samples, further work is required to adapt the DECT formalism in the context of clinical use, where noise and artifacts play an important role.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Q-value (MeV/fission) Determination for the Advanced Test Reactor

This report documents a step-by-step procedure that can be used to calculate a Q-value for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The Q-value calculation here is an estimate of the total energy released per fission event in the ATR driver fuel in units of MeV/fission and is recognized as a reactor-specific Q-value for the ATR. Such a Q-value is needed INL ATR reactor physicists to normalize calculated fluxes and reaction rates to measured ATR total core and lobe powers. The calculated ATR Q-value and the procedure used to calculate this value are presented in a detailed manner so as to establish a credible basis, such that this single Q-value can be used consistently among all ATR reactor physicists. A Q-value is essentially the summation of all the kinetic energy from all radiation components released from a single fission event that ends up as heat in the reactor coolant. Estimation of a Q-value for a given reactor can theoretically be very complex because it is dependent on several variables, which include (1) the materials in the reactor core, (2) the neutron energy spectrum, and (3) the mix of actinide isotopes that are being simultaneously fissioned. Since these three variables can potentially change over time or with reactor burnup, this potentially makes the Q-value a time-dependent quantity. However, for ATR, we will invoke some simplifying assumptions, based on the unique features of the ATR core and supported by neutronic calculations, which will reduce the complexity of the problem and lead to a single time-independent Q-value. Of the three variables, the materials in the core have the greatest impact on the ATR Q-value. Since the materials in the core are most important, an array of components (materials) have been carefully selected to compose a typical ATR core configuration. It should be noted that the step-by-step procedure here for calculating a reactor-specific Q-value can be applied to any nuclear reactor. In a more general procedure, if one needed to include time-dependent spectral and actinide composition changes as a function of burnup for a specific reactor, this procedure can still be used, but at discrete time steps throughout the burnup. The result will be a set of discrete Q-values as a function of burnup. However, here we will apply the procedure to the ATR, as an example, and obtain a single Q-value that is valid for the ATR reactor as a function of burnup. In the evaluated nuclear data file (ENDF), Q-values for specific actinides are known for a reasonably high degree of accuracy, especially the major uranium and plutonium isotopes. The isotopic Q-values are composed of the kinetic energy of the fission fragments and the energies of the various radiation components emitted from the fission event. One complication is the fact that some of these energy components are dependent on the incident neutron energy (EINC) that induces the fission event (neutron energy spectrum dependence). For ATR, we will estimate an average neutron energy based on the neutron energy flux weighted by the fission cross sections and use this average neutron energy value in the ENDF formulas. This neutron energy dependence is one of two dependencies that make the final ATR Q-value a reactor-specific value. The second dependency, and the most important variable for ATR, involves the materials in the core and the de-excitation radiations produced from neutron radiative capture radiation; radiation energy that becomes heat in the reactor coolant. This important dependency is discussed in detail below. The third dependency, or the mix of fissioning actinides as a function of ATR burnup, is ignored because the bulk of the fissions over a cycle are always due to U-235 in the high-enriched ATR core. In a fission event, the fission energy is partitioned between the fission fragments and the radiation components that include neutrons, gamma rays, and beta particles. The main variable that makes the calculated Q-value reactor-specific is the amount of radiative capture energy produced in the core due to prompt and delayed neutron capture in the reactor core materials and the subsequent release of nuclear binding energy in the form of de-excitation gamma radiation energy in the reactor core. This energy component, neutron radiative capture energy, is not in the ENDF, because it depends on the reactor and its core materials. The radiative capture gamma energy release can be significant, or approximately 3–12 MeV/fission depending on the materials in the reactor core (fuel materials, cladding, structural components, coolant, targets, reflector, etc.). For the ATR, the energy released from radiative capture gamma radiation is calculated to be near the middle of the 3–12 MeV range. This makes the radiative capture radiation component an important and significant contribution to the total ATR Q-value. The ATR has unique reactor features that will allow us to simplify the complex procedure for determining an ATR reactor-specific Q-value. For example, the ATR is a thermal reactor and contains high-enriched fuel (93.15 wt% U-235). Consequently, the bulk of the fissions in the ATR core from beginning-of-cycle (BOC) to end-of-cycle are from U-235. Even though U-238 makes up approximately 7% of the uranium atoms in the fuel, the number of fissions relative to U-235 is insignificant, since U-238 is fertile and ATR is a thermal reactor. The same is true for U-234 and U-236 (both fertile). The ATR’s high-enriched uranium fuel also inhibits the buildup of large quantities of plutonium isotopes. So, even though there is some buildup of U-236, Np-237, and Pu-239 in the ATR driver fuel, the impact or contribution of these isotopes fissions on the ATR Q-value is minor compared to U-235. Nonetheless, we will include fission contributions from all the major uranium isotopes (U-234, U-235, U-236, and U-238) in the determination of an average isotopic Q-value that is used in the ATR Q-value determination. Although the ATR Q-value calculated here is based on BOC conditions (fresh fuel with no higher order actinide buildup), it is believed that the ATR Q-value is relatively constant with burnup or during any given ATR power cycle (14–60 days). The reason is that the vast majority of the core driver fuel fissions are always from U-235 during the cycle. Also, since we effectively assume instantaneous energy release for the fission product gammas and beta particles and delayed neutrons from a fission event, this corresponds to equilibrium conditions for all fission product concentrations in the ATR driver fuel too. The goal of this effort was to determine a specific numerical and core-average Q-value for the recoverable energy released by a single fission event (MeV/fission) for the ATR. This calculated value has the potential to help standardize and add credibility to not only the Monte Carlo tally normalization process used by many ATR core physics analysts, but also to the normalization process for all reactor physics calculation methods involving ATR analyses. Currently, the ATR core physics analysts use slightly different Q-values. Some values are known to be conservative for specific applications. However, sometimes a more accurate Q-value is needed for the calculation in which ATR test specimens require non-conservative and as-accurate-as-possible Q-values to estimate burnups, heat rates, neutron fluxes, nuclear reaction rates, etc., where corresponding measured post-irradiation examination data provides the ultimate validation for the calculated results. A detailed Q-value procedure was developed and is outlined in this document along with numerical values calculated specifically for the determination of the ATR Q-value. This report attempts to document in some detail the calculation methodology, nuclear data, computer code, computer model, code calculated results, hand calculations, assumptions, and logic that went into the determination of the ATR Q-value.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Holistic Framework for Environmental Flows Determination in Hydropower Contexts

Among the ecological science community, the consensus view is that the natural flow regime sustains the ecological integrity of river systems. This prevailing viewpoint by many environmental stakeholders has progressively led to increased pressure on hydropower dam owners to change plant operations to affect downstream river flows with the intention of providing better conditions for aquatic biological communities. Identifying the neccessary magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, or rate of change of stream flows to meet ecological needs in a hydropower context is challenging because the ecological responses to changes in flows may not be fully known, there are usually a multitude of competing users of flow, and implementing environmental flows usually comes at a price to energy production. Realistically, hydropower managers must develop a reduced set of goals that provide the most benefit to the identified ecological needs. As a part of the Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Program, the Instream Flow Project (IFP) was carried out by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and Argon National Laboratory (ANL) as an attempt to develop tools aimed at defining environmental flow needs for hydropower operations. The application of these tools ranges from national to site-specific scales; thus, the utility of each tool will depend on various phases of the environmental flow process. Given the complexity and sheer volume of applications used to determine environmentally acceptable flows for hydropower, a framework is needed to organize efforts into a staged process dependent upon spatial, temporal, and functional attributes. By far, the predominant domain for determining environmental flows related to hydropower is within the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing process. This process can take multiple years and can be very expensive depending on the scale of each hydropower project. The utility of such a framework is that it can expedite the environmental flow process by 1) organizing data and applications to identify predictable relationships between flows and ecology, and 2) suggesting when and where tools should be used in the environmental flow process. In addition to regulatory procedures, a framework should also provide the coordination for a comprehensive research agenda to guide the science of environmental flows. This research program has further reaching benefits than just environmental flow determination by providing modeling applications, data, and geospatial layers to inform potential hydropower development. We address several objectives within this document that highlight the limitations of existing environmental flow paradigms and their applications to hydropower while presenting a new framework catered towards hydropower needs. Herein, we address the following objectives: 1) Provide a brief overview of the Natural Flow Regime paradigm and existing environmental flow frameworks that have been used to determine ecologically sensitive stream flows for hydropower operations. 2) Describe a new conceptual framework to aid in determining flows needed to meet ecological objectives with regard to hydropower operations. The framework is centralized around determining predictable relationships between flow and ecological responses. 3) Provide evidence of how efforts from ORNL, PNNL, and ANL have filled some of the gaps in this broader framework, and suggest how the framework can be used to set the stage for a research agenda for environmental flow.

dams↗

Groundwater Potability Determination Report for Sylvan Grove, Kansas

The Commodity Credit Corporation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (CCC/USDA) operated a grain storage facility from 1954 to 1966 at the northeastern edge of Sylvan Grove, Kansas (Figures 1.1 and 1.2). During this time, commercial grain fumigants containing carbon tetrachloride were in common use to preserve grain in storage. The CCC/USDA is in the process of preparing a Corrective Action Study (CAS) to address carbon tetrachloride contamination in groundwater on the portion of the site that it formerly leased and operated. As stated in the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE) Bureau of Environmental Remediation (BER) policy BER-RS-045 (KDHE 2016), Considerations for Groundwater Potability and Use Determinations (hereafter referred to as “Potability Determination Guidance”), the KDHE considers all groundwater to be a potential source of potable water. This report, however, substantiates that groundwater resources in the Cretaceous Dakota Formation—more specifically, that localized portions of water bearing strata affected by operations at the former CCC/USDA site—are non-potable. The purpose of this report, therefore, is to provide additional information to support the KDHE’s decision-making process with regard to the disposition and closure of the Sylvan Grove site. Per the Potability Determination Guidance the results of this potability evaluation will play a role in selecting the site remedial action objectives and the overall proposed path for long-term management. This report presents the data and analyses of the potability study and the results of the potability determination, which will be taken into consideration during the development of cleanup goals for the CAS or for any other future remedial or long-term management action agreed to by the CCC/USDA and KDHE. The Potability Determination Guidance provides a framework to evaluate groundwater potability by outlining: The set of threshold criteria under which KDHE will consider an aquifer to be non-potable; The data and information necessary to evaluate potability; and, Considerations for long-term management of aquifers that are deemed non potable. According to the guidance, the KDHE may determine that groundwater is non-potable due to natural conditions such as water quality or quantity characteristics. As suggested in the guidance, this report will discuss the initial potability threshold screening for entering the evaluation process (Section 2); justify the work plan that was covered by the site investigation planning (also in Section 2); and present the relevant data and evaluation results (Sections 3-6).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectroscopic Determination of Stellar Parameters and Oxygen Abundances for Hyades/Field G–K Dwarfs

It has been suggested that Fe abundances of K dwarfs derived from Fe i and Fe ii lines show considerable discrepancies, and oxygen abundances determined from high-excitation O i 7771–5 triplet lines are appreciably overestimated (the problem becoming more serious toward lower T {sub eff}), which, however, has not yet been widely confirmed. With the aim of clarifying this issue, we spectroscopically determined the atmospheric parameters of 148 G–K dwarfs (Hyades cluster stars and field stars) by assuming the classical Fe i/Fe ii ionization equilibrium as usual, and determined their oxygen abundances by applying the non-local thermal equilibrium spectrum fitting analysis to O i 7771–5 lines. It turned out that the resulting parameters did not show any significant inconsistency with those determined by other methods (for example, the mean differences in T {sub eff} and logg from the well-determined solutions of Hyades dwarfs are mostly ≲100 K and ≲0.1 dex). Likewise, the oxygen abundances of Hyades stars are around [O/H] ∼ +0.2 dex (consistent with the metallicity of this cluster) without exhibiting any systematic T {sub eff}-dependence. Accordingly, we conclude that parameters can be spectroscopically evaluated to a sufficient precision in the conventional manner (based on the Saha–Boltzmann equation for Fe i/Fe ii) and oxygen abundances can be reliably determined from the O i 7771–5 triplet for K dwarfs as far as stars of T {sub eff} ≳ 4500 K are concerned. We suspect that previously reported strongly T {sub eff}-dependent discrepancies may have stemmed mainly from overestimation of weak-line strengths and/or improper T {sub eff} scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lander Locations, Mars Physical Ephemeris, and Solar System Parameters: Determination from Viking Lander Tracking Data

Radio tracking data from the Viking landers have been analyzed to determine the parameters of the Mars physical ephemeris, the radii of Mars at the landing sites, and the lander locations. The orientation of the Mars rotation axis, referred to the 1950.0 earth mean equator, equinox, and epoch, was determined to be 317.340+/-0.003 degrees right ascension and 52.710+/-0.002degrees declination. The planet's rotation period was determined to be 24 h, 37 min, 22.663+/-0.002 s. Analyses indicate that the determination of the motions of the Mars rotation axis will require additional tracking data. The Mars radii at the sites of landers 1 and 2 are 3389.38+/-0.06 km and 3381.91+/-0.08 km, respectively. The areocentric location of lander 1 is 22.272+/-0.002 degrees N, 47.94+/-0.2 degrees W. The lander 2 location is 47.670+/-0.002 degrees N, 225.71+/-0.2 degrees W. The areocentric right ascensions of the landers are determined to be 277.314+/-0.002 degrees for lander 1 and 99.546+/-0.002degrees for lander 2 at 0000 hours, January 1, 1977 (Julian date 2443144.57). Possible determinations of relativity parameters, solar oblateness, asteroid mass, and variations of the universal gravitational constant, from their effects on the planetary motions, will require the additional tracking data of the Viking extended mission.

Mayo, A. P.↗

Precision attitude determination for multimission spacecraft

Attitude determination algorithms for a multimission spacecraft are derived and their performance analyzed. The attitude determination system is composed of a strapdown Inertial Reference Unit (IRU), two fixed head star trackers, and an onboard computer. IRU data is processed to maintain real-time knowledge of spacecraft attitude relative to an inertial reference frame. Star tracker data is processed using Kalman filtering techniques to estimate and correct the attitude determination errors and the gyro drift compensation errors. The results of a star availability analysis for stellar, solar and earth pointing missions are presented. Linear covariance analysis techniques are used to evaluate nominal attitude determination performance, the effects of sensor measurement accuracy variations, the effects of errors in knowledge of sensor measurement accuracy, and the effects of star tracker misalignment errors. Results of a nonlinear simulation analysis of attitude determination performance are also presented. These analyses show that precision attitude determination for stellar, solar and earth pointing missions is achieved.

Murrell, J. W.↗

Feasibility of determining flat roof heat losses using aerial thermography

The utility of aerial thermography for determining rooftop heat losses was investigated experimentally using several completely instrumented test roofs with known thermal resistances. Actual rooftop heat losses were obtained both from in-situ instrumentation and aerial thermography obtained from overflights at an altitude of 305 m. In general, the remotely determined roof surface temperatures agreed very well with those obtained from ground measurements. The roof heat losses calculated using the remotely determined roof temperature agreed to within 17% of those calculated from 1/R delta T using ground measurements. However, this agreement may be fortuitous since the convective component of the heat loss is sensitive to small changes in roof temperature and to the average heat transfer coefficient used, whereas the radiative component is less sensitive. This, at this time, it is felt that an acceptable quantitative determination of roof heat losses using aerial thermography is only feasible when the convective term is accurately known or minimized. The sensitivity of the heat loss determination to environmental conditions was also evaluated. The analysis showed that the most reliable quantitative heat loss determinations can probably be obtained from aerial thermography taken under conditions of total cloud cover with low wind speeds and at low ambient temperatures.

Bowman, R. L.↗

An approach to autonomous, onboard orbit determination

An orbit determination subsystem that will operate as an integral part of an autonomous, onboard navigation system is presented and analyzed. The navigation system is required to interface solely with the downlink telemetry stream and uplink command stream of an existing class of geostationary satellites. In particular, the orbit will be determined from a set of onboard sensors, which previously were used only for attitude determination. The design of the orbit determination subsystem is described in detail. The rationale behind the choice of each component of the design is given. Finally, the performance of the orbit determination subsystem, under a variety of assumptions, is determined by a combination of numerical simulation and analytical methods.

Mease, K. D.↗

Determination of lifetime and surface recombination velocity of p-n junction solar cells and diodes by observing transients

The unified view of transient methods for the determination of recombination lifetime tau and back surface recombination velocity S presented here for silicon solar cells and diodes attempts to define limitations of existing methods and to evolve improvements. The presence of sizable junction capacitance for silicon devices under forward voltage invalidates the use of conventional open-circuit voltage decay (OCVD) and reverse recovery. This led Green (1983) to his method of compensated open-circuit voltage decay, in which the addition of an external resistor shunting the solar cell partially corrects for the presence of the junction capacitance. Setting this resistance to zero produces an electrical short-circuit current-decay method, which has the advantage of enabling determination of both tau and S. In an alternate approach, one may insert the functional dependence of the junction capacitance on forward voltage. This new method, denoted by the acronym OCVDCAP, enables the determination of tau with apparently greater accuracy than that obtained by previous methods utilizing voltage transients. But OCVDCAP has in common with the previous methods that it determines tau only and has practical utility only for determining tau of long-base devices. This means that it is useful only for thick base regions. In principle, however, it has an advantage over short-circuit current decay: it requires only pressure contacts, not ohmic contacts, and therefore may be used to determine tau after key processing steps in manufacturing.

Lindholm, Fredrik A.↗

Comparison of ERBS orbit determination accuracy using batch least-squares and sequential methods

The Flight Dynamics Div. (FDD) at NASA-Goddard commissioned a study to develop the Real Time Orbit Determination/Enhanced (RTOD/E) system as a prototype system for sequential orbit determination of spacecraft on a DOS based personal computer (PC). An overview is presented of RTOD/E capabilities and the results are presented of a study to compare the orbit determination accuracy for a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) user spacecraft obtained using RTOS/E on a PC with the accuracy of an established batch least squares system, the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), operating on a mainframe computer. RTOD/E was used to perform sequential orbit determination for the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) was used to perform the batch least squares orbit determination. The estimated ERBS ephemerides were obtained for the Aug. 16 to 22, 1989, timeframe, during which intensive TDRSS tracking data for ERBS were available. Independent assessments were made to examine the consistencies of results obtained by the batch and sequential methods. Comparisons were made between the forward filtered RTOD/E orbit solutions and definitive GTDS orbit solutions for ERBS; the solution differences were less than 40 meters after the filter had reached steady state.

Oza, D. H.↗

Orbit determination support of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon operational orbit

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/Poseidon) mission is designed to determine the topography of the Earth's sea surface over a 3-year period, beginning shortly after launch in July 1992. TOPEX/Poseidon is a joint venture between the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the French Centre Nationale d'Etudes Spatiales. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is NASA's TOPEX/Poseidon project center. The Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) will nominally be used to support the day-to-day orbit determination aspects of the mission. Due to its extensive experience with TDRSS tracking data, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) will receive and process TDRSS observational data. To fulfill the scientific goals of the mission, it is necessary to achieve and maintain a very precise orbit. The most stringent accuracy requirements are associated with planning and evaluating orbit maneuvers, which will place the spacecraft in its mission orbit and maintain the required ground track. To determine if the FDF can meet the TOPEX/Poseidon maneuver accuracy requirements, covariance analysis was undertaken with the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS). The covariance analysis addressed many aspects of TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination, including arc length, force models, and other processing options. The most recent analysis has focused on determining the size of the geopotential field necessary to meet the maneuver support requirements. Analysis was undertaken with the full 50 x 50 Goddard Earth Model (GEM) T3 field as well as smaller representations of this model.

Schanzle, A. F.↗

Methods of determining loads and fiber orientations in anisotropic non-crystalline materials using energy flux deviation

An ultrasonic wave is applied to an anisotropic sample material in an initial direction and an angle of flux deviation of the ultrasonic wave front is measured from this initial direction. This flux deviation angle is induced by the unknown applied load. The flux shift is determined between this flux deviation angle and a previously determined angle of flux deviation of an ultrasonic wave applied to a similar anisotropic reference material under an initial known load condition. This determined flux shift is then compared to a plurality of flux shifts of a similarly tested, similar anisotropic reference material under a plurality of respective, known load conditions, whereby the load applied to the particular anisotropic sample material is determined. A related method is disclosed for determining the fiber orientation from known loads and a determined flux shift.

Prosser, William H.↗

Evaluation of semiempirical atmospheric density models for orbit determination applications

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the orbit determination performance of the Jacchia-Roberts (JR), mass spectrometer incoherent scatter 1986 (MSIS-86), and drag temperature model (DTM) atmospheric density models. Evaluation of the models was performed to assess the modeling of the total atmospheric density. This study was made generic by using six spacecraft and selecting time periods of study representative of all portions of the 11-year cycle. Performance of the models was measured for multiple spacecraft, representing a selection of orbit geometries from near-equatorial to polar inclinations and altitudes from 400 kilometers to 900 kilometers. The orbit geometries represent typical low earth-orbiting spacecraft supported by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Dynamics Division (FDD). The best available modeling and orbit determination techniques using the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) were employed to minimize the effects of modeling errors. The latest geopotential model available during the analysis, the Goddard earth model-T3 (GEM-T3), was employed to minimize geopotential model error effects on the drag estimation. Improved-accuracy techniques identified for TOPEX/Poseidon orbit determination analysis were used to improve the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)-based orbit determination used for most of the spacecraft chosen for this analysis. This paper shows that during periods of relatively quiet solar flux and geomagnetic activity near the solar minimum, the choice of atmospheric density model used for orbit determination is relatively inconsequential. During typical solar flux conditions near the solar maximum, the differences between the JR, DTM, and MSIS-86 models begin to become apparent. Time periods of extreme solar activity, those in which the daily and 81-day mean solar flux are high and change rapidly, result in significant differences between the models. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, the standard JR model was outperformed by DTM. Modification of the JR model to use a geomagnetic heating delay of 3 hours, as used in DTM, instead of the 6.7-hour delay produced results comparable to or better than the DTM performance, reducing definitive orbit solution ephermeris overlap differences by 30 to 50 percent. The reduction in the overlap differences would be useful for mitigating the impact of geomagnetic storms on orbit prediction.

Cox, C. M.↗

Magnetometer-only attitude and rate determination for a gyro-less spacecraft

Attitude determination algorithms that requires only the earth's magnetic field will be useful for contingency conditions. One way to determine attitude is to use the time derivative of the magnetic field as the second vector in the attitude determination process. When no gyros are available, however, attitude determination becomes difficult because the rates must be propagated via integration of Euler's equation, which in turn requires knowledge of the initial rates. The spacecraft state to be determined must then include not only the attitude but also rates. This paper describes a magnetometer-only attitude determination scheme with no a priori knowledge of the spacecraft state, which uses a deterministic algorithm to initialize an extended Kalman filter. The deterministic algorithm uses Euler's equation to relate the time derivatives of the magnetic field in the reference and body frames and solves the resultant transcendental equations for the coarse attitude and rates. An important feature of the filter is that its state vector also includes corrections to the propagated rates, thus enabling it to generate highly accurate solutions. The method was tested using in-flight data from the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particles Explorer (SAMPEX), a Small Explorer spacecraft. SAMPEX data using several eclipse periods were used to simulate conditions that may exist during the failure of the on-board digital sun sensor. The combined algorithm has been found effective, yielding accuracies of 1.5 deg in attitude (within even nominal mission requirements) and 0.01 degree per second (deg/sec) in the rates.

Natanson, G. A.↗

Precision orbit determination using TOPEX/Poseidon TDRSS observations

The TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) Mission carries a variety of packages to support experimental, precision and operational orbit determination. Included are a GPS transponder, laser retro-reflectors, the French-developed Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) Doppler tracking system and a Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) transponder. Presently, TDRSS tracking is used for operational orbit support and is processed with force and measurement modeling consistent with this purpose. However, the low noise and extensive geographical coverage of the TDRSS/TOPEX data allows an assessment of TDRSS Precision Orbit Determination (POD) capabilities by comparison to the T/P precision orbit determination. The Geodynamics (GEODYN) Orbit Determination System is used to process laser and DORIS data to produce the precision orbits for the T/P Project. GEODYN has been modified recently to support the TDRSS observations. TDRSS data analysis can now benefit from the extensive force modeling and reference frame stability needed to meet the orbit determination (OD) goals of the T/P Mission. This analysis has concentrated on the strongest of the TDRSS measurement types, its two-way average range rate. Both the TDRSS and T/P orbits have been assessed in combination with the global satellite laser ranging (SLR) data and by themselves. These results indicate that significant improvement in the TDRSS ephemerides is obtained when the T/P orbit is well determined by SLR, and the TDRSS/TOPEX Doppler link is used to position TDRSS. Meter-level TDRSS positioning uncertainty is achieved using this approach. When the TDRSS orbit location is provided by this approach, the two-way range rate from a single TDRSS (i.e. West only) can provide T/P orbits with sub-meter radial accuracies and two meter RMS total position agreement with SLR defined orbits. These preliminary results indicate improved modeling of the TDRSS measurement through the elimination of heretofore neglected effects like the motion of the T/P TDRSS antenna and improved modeling of ionospheric and atmospheric refractive effects, and the inclusion of TDRSS East in the analysis are warranted. Through these improvements, TDRSS can make a significant contribution to geopotential recovery and precision OD.

Teles, Jerome↗

Investigation of Adaptive-threshold Approaches for Determining Area-Time Integrals from Satellite Infrared Data to Estimate Convective Rain Volumes

The principal goal of this project is to establish relationships that would allow application of area-time integral (ATI) calculations based upon satellite data to estimate rainfall volumes. The research is being carried out as a collaborative effort between the two participating organizations, with the satellite data analysis to determine values for the ATIs being done primarily by the STC-METSAT scientists and the associated radar data analysis to determine the 'ground-truth' rainfall estimates being done primarily at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T). Synthesis of the two separate kinds of data and investigation of the resulting rainfall-versus-ATI relationships is then carried out jointly. The research has been pursued using two different approaches, which for convenience can be designated as the 'fixed-threshold approach' and the 'adaptive-threshold approach'. In the former, an attempt is made to determine a single temperature threshold in the satellite infrared data that would yield ATI values for identifiable cloud clusters which are closely related to the corresponding rainfall amounts as determined by radar. Work on the second, or 'adaptive-threshold', approach for determining the satellite ATI values has explored two avenues: (1) attempt involved choosing IR thresholds to match the satellite ATI values with ones separately calculated from the radar data on a case basis; and (2) an attempt involved a striaghtforward screening analysis to determine the (fixed) offset that would lead to the strongest correlation and lowest standard error of estimate in the relationship between the satellite ATI values and the corresponding rainfall volumes.

Smith, Paul L.↗