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DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Model Ensembles in Ecosystem Modeling: Challenges and Best Practices for Decision‐Making

Ecosystem models are increasingly central to the decision-making for environmental policy, conservation planning, and climate-related investments. Yet, the growing reliance on Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) of ecosystem models by practitioners and policymakers, sometimes under tight timelines and imperfect information, has frequently outpaced the scientific rigor required to ensure ensemble reliability. Here, MMEs refer to approaches that combine targeted predictions from multiple models with the expectation of improving robustness and quantifying predictive uncertainty. Poorly designed MMEs may create a false sense of confidence and lead to suboptimal policy and market decisions. This perspective argues that robust decision-making-relevant MMEs must be grounded on two pillars: (1) rigorous Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), which identify inter-model agreement and disagreement, characterize model uncertainties, and evaluate robustness with observationally based benchmarks—MIPs' diagnostic evaluation is so critical that it must be needed to drive MME's decision in model selection and weighting, especially when only a limited number of models available; and (2) co-design by both stakeholders and scientists to ensure that scenarios, metrics and uncertainty requirements provide decision-relevant information. Building upon the past success and lessons from the existing MIPs-MMEs efforts (e.g., climate/Earth system/crop), we derived the theoretical basis for MMEs, addressed their specific challenges in ecosystem modeling, and highlighted proper consideration of model numbers and diversity, risk of model inter-dependence, effective calibration of model parameters, possible overdue of some ecosystem model development, critical roles of open benchmark data across a wide range of conditions, and suggested use of Artificial Intelligence to support MIPs-MMEs. We highlighted the under-recognized opportunity for MIPs and MMEs to drive scientific progress and innovation through identifying better performing models, systematic benchmarking, feedback loops, and targeted model improvement. By following actionable best practice guidelines, MMEs can evolve from ad hoc aggregation of models into a trusted backbone of environmental policy and decision-making.

ecosystem modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Basin‐Scale Testing of Alternative Data‐Driven Approaches

Abstract Integrated hydrological modeling is an effective method for understanding interactions between parts of the hydrologic cycle, quantifying water resources, and furthering knowledge of hydrologic processes. However, these models are dependent on robust and accurate datasets that physically represent spatial characteristics as model inputs. This study evaluates multiple data‐driven approaches for estimating hydraulic conductivity and subsurface properties at the continental‐scale, constructed from existing subsurface dataset components. Each subsurface configuration represents upper (unconfined) hydrogeology, lower (confined) hydrogeology, and the presence of a vertical flow barrier. Configurations are tested in two large‐scale U.S. watersheds using an integrated model. Model results are compared to observed streamflow and steady state water table depth (WTD). We provide model results for a range of configurations and show that both WTD and surface water partitioning are important indicators of performance. We also show that geology data source, total subsurface depth, anisotropy, and inclusion of a vertical flow barrier are the most important considerations for subsurface configurations. While a range of configurations proved viable, we provide a recommended Selected National Configuration 1 km resolution subsurface dataset for use in distributed large‐and continental‐scale hydrologic modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cluster dynamics modeling of Mn-Ni-Si precipitates coupled with radiation-induced segregation in low-Cu reactor pressure vessel steels

Formation of precipitates enhanced or induced by irradiation causes hardening and embrittlement of nuclear structural materials. Post-irradiation microstructure characterization of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels has shown that precipitation can be strongly associated with radiation-induced segregation (RIS) of solutes on dislocations. However, RIS and precipitation have not been coupled in previous precipitation modeling of RPV steels. Here in this study, a new hybrid and spatially-dependent precipitation model is developed that couples cluster dynamics with RIS, providing an unique way to account for concurrent evolution of heterogeneous cluster densities as well as solute and point defect concentration profiles. The model is applied to study the segregation of Mn, Ni, and Si on dislocations and heterogeneous nucleation of Mn-Ni-Si rich precipitates (MNSPs) in a low-Cu RPV steel. The result shows that the onset of MNSP nucleation on dislocations occurs at the fluence of 2 x 10 23 n.m -2 . The number density and mean radius can reach ~ 10 24 m -3 and 1-2 nm at high fluence, respectively. These observations suggest that the role of RIS and heterogeneous nucleation can be significant for RPV steels under a high fluence of irradiation. Results of simulations adopting various dose rates and dislocation densities show an increased fraction of MNSPs on dislocations at the condition of low dose rate, high dislocation density, and high fluence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing mass balance-based inverse modeling methods via a pseudo-observation test to constrain NO x emissions over South Korea

This study constrains NO x emissions by utilizing mass balance–based inverse modeling methods and examines the optimization of inverse modeling conditions through a pseudo-observation test for South Korea, which has complex topography. Here, we applied mass balance–based inverse modeling methods such as Basic Mass Balance (BMB), Finite Difference Mass Balance (FDMB), and Iterative Finite Difference Mass Balance (IFDMB). We performed a numerical simulation of air quality using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to calculate the NO 2 column density required for the inverse modeling. The pseudo-observation test was performed according to season, modeling resolution, and regridding methodology of satellite observation data to identify various conditions while applying the inverse modeling for South Korea. Comparing the inverse modeling results from the BMB, FDMB, and IFDMB methods, IFDMB was the most effective method in constraining NO x emissions in the South Korean region since it minimized smearing effects (i.e., transport-induced errors) through iterative calculations. The accuracy of the constrained NO x emissions using mass balance–based inversions in South Korea was the highest in the summer due to the minimized smearing effects, and the 9 km resolution modeling was the most efficient for inverse modeling of the region. In addition, the results of inverse modeling varied depending on the regridding methods, implying the importance of using a suitable regridding method and modeling resolution. This study used pseudo-observations, but the inversions are expected to be applied based on actual satellite data in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI Emission-line Galaxies: Clustering Dependence on Stellar Mass and [O II] Luminosity

We measure the projected two-point correlation functions of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument One-Percent Survey and model their dependence on stellar mass and [O II] luminosity. We select ∼180,000 ELGs with redshifts of 0.8 < z < 1.6, and define 27 samples according to cuts in redshift and both galaxy properties. Following a framework that describes the conditional [O II] luminosity–stellar mass distribution as a function of halo mass, we simultaneously model the clustering measurements of all samples at fixed redshift. Based on the modeling result, most ELGs in our samples are classified as central galaxies, residing in halos of a narrow mass range with a typical median of ∼10 12.2−12.4 h −1 M ⊙ . We observe a weak dependence of clustering amplitude on stellar mass, which is reflected in the model constraints and is likely a consequence of the 0.5 dex measurement uncertainty in the stellar mass estimates. The model shows a trend between galaxy bias and [O II] luminosity at high redshift (1.2 < z < 1.6) that is otherwise absent at lower redshifts.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydraulic fracturing to enhance injectivity and storage capacity of CO 2 storage reservoirs: Benefits and risks

Several potential CO 2 storage reservoirs have been found to have insufficient porosity and permeability to support cost effective commercial-scale injection. As a result, the use of hydraulic fracturing to enhance injectivity and storage capacity of CO 2 storage reservoirs was explored. Previous modeling studies indicate that fracturing can increase storage capacity by modest to significant amounts (10%–35%), depending on model assumptions. Simulations completed as part of this study confirm that for a range of horizontal well lengths, number of fractures, fracture geometries, and fracture properties, injectivity is improved and capacity increases by 13%–71% over the base case unfractured vertical well. Intuitively, increasing the well length and number of fractures had a corresponding impact on increased capacity. Here, fracture area (i.e., the fracture height multiplied by its width) was an important parameter for increasing capacity but the specific geometry (e.g., the ratio of height-to-width) was unimportant. The most important aspect that affected capacity was the ability of a fracture to connect high permeability horizontal zones in the reservoir. This would allow a single well to access both layers, thereby maximizing total storage capacity of the reservoir while likely leading to an overall increase of the CO 2 footprint, which is an important consideration for Class VI UIC permitting. The results of this work demonstrate that hydraulic fracturing is an attractive option to consider when faced with an underperforming geologic carbon storage site that is at risk of causing a project to fail.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Charged Solute-Solvent Interaction on Reservoir Temperature during Subsurface CO2 Injection

A short-term side-effect of CO2 injection is a developing low-pH front that forms ahead of the bulk water injectant, due to differences in solute diffusivity. Observations of downhole well temperature show a reduction in aqueous-phase temperature with the arrival of a low-pH front, followed by a gradual rise in temperature upon the arrival of a high concentration of bicarbonate ion. In this work, we model aqueous-phase transient heat advection and diffusion, with the volumetric energy generation rate computed from solute-solvent interaction using the Helgeson–Kirkham–Flowers (HKF) model, which is based on the Born Solvation model, for computing specific molar heat capacity and the enthalpy of charged electrolytes. A computed injectant water temperature profile is shown to agree with the actual bottom hole sampled temperature acquired from sensors. The modeling of aqueous-phase temperature during subsurface injection simulation is important for the accurate modeling of mineral dissolution and precipitation because forward dissolution rates are governed by a temperature-dependent Arrhenius model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

No Escaping Helium from 55 Cnc e

We search for escaping helium from the hot super-Earth 55 Cnc e by taking high-resolution spectra of the 1083 nm line during two transits using Keck/NIRSPEC. We detect no helium absorption down to a 90% upper limit of 250 ppm in excess absorption or 0.27 mÅ in equivalent width. This corresponds to a mass-loss rate of less than ∼10{sup 9} g s{sup −1} assuming a Parker wind model with a plausible exosphere temperature of 5000–6000 K, although the precise constraint is heavily dependent on model assumptions. We consider both hydrogen- and helium-dominated atmospheric compositions and find similar bounds on the mass-loss rate in both scenarios. Our hydrodynamical models indicate that if a lightweight atmosphere exists on 55 Cnc e, our observations would have easily detected it. Together with the nondetection of Lyα absorption by Ehrenreich et al., our helium nondetection indicates that 55 Cnc e either never accreted a primordial atmosphere in the first place or lost its primordial atmosphere shortly after the dissipation of the gas disk.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of Local Structure in the Enhanced Dynamics of Deformed Glasses

External stress can accelerate molecular mobility of amorphous solids by several orders of magnitude. The changes in mobility are commonly interpreted through the Eyring model, which invokes an empirical activation volume. Here, we analyze constant-stress molecular dynamics simulations and propose a structure-dependent Eyring model, connecting activation volume to a machine-learned field, softness. We show that stress has a heterogeneous effect on the mobility that depends on local structure through softness. The barrier impeding relaxation reduces more for well-packed particles, which explains the narrower distribution of relaxation time observed under stress.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving protein tertiary structure prediction by deep learning and distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract Substantial progresses in protein structure prediction have been made by utilizing deep‐learning and residue‐residue distance prediction since CASP13. Inspired by the advances, we improve our CASP14 MULTICOM protein structure prediction system by incorporating three new components: (a) a new deep learning‐based protein inter‐residue distance predictor to improve template‐free (ab initio) tertiary structure prediction, (b) an enhanced template‐based tertiary structure prediction method, and (c) distance‐based model quality assessment methods empowered by deep learning. In the 2020 CASP14 experiment, MULTICOM predictor was ranked seventh out of 146 predictors in tertiary structure prediction and ranked third out of 136 predictors in inter‐domain structure prediction. The results demonstrate that the template‐free modeling based on deep learning and residue‐residue distance prediction can predict the correct topology for almost all template‐based modeling targets and a majority of hard targets (template‐free targets or targets whose templates cannot be recognized), which is a significant improvement over the CASP13 MULTICOM predictor. Moreover, the template‐free modeling performs better than the template‐based modeling on not only hard targets but also the targets that have homologous templates. The performance of the template‐free modeling largely depends on the accuracy of distance prediction closely related to the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The structural model quality assessment works well on targets for which enough good models can be predicted, but it may perform poorly when only a few good models are predicted for a hard target and the distribution of model quality scores is highly skewed. MULTICOM is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/MULTICOM_Human_CASP14/tree/CASP14_DeepRank3 and https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental workflow to estimate model parameters for evaluating long term viscoelastic response of CO2 storage caprocks

Understanding the time-dependent behavior of reservoir and sealing formations is critical to assessing risks associated with geological carbon storage since time-dependent deformation strongly influences mechanical responses of some rock types. Many studies have evaluated the risk of CO2 leakage and induced seismicity by assuming poroelastic rheology in sealing formations. Few have considered viscoelastic or other time-dependent responses, where the existing literature adopts 1D models to represent long-term time-dependent responses. This is primarily because to date, the general form of a reasonable 3D time-dependent model for rocks remains unclear. In this paper, we address this unclear issue by proposing a new workflow to select constitutive modeling parameters to evaluate if a 3D viscoelastic model is reasonable using several-hour-long experimental data and a power-law response to extrapolate to the decades-long time frames of interest in geologic carbon storage. To provide experimental data, we conducted multi-level loading/unloading triaxial relaxation tests with four rock types. The experimental results showed that the maximum load relaxation observed is approximately 49%, with some rock types showing as little as 1.4%. Using a simple linear viscoelastic model, parameters were chosen such that a maximum deviation of 1.5 MPa in axial stress and 7 MPa in radial stress was attained with the extrapolated 30-year data. We found that a reasonable parameter range for the normalized elastic modulus is 0.1~2 for rocks with significant time-dependent responses and 0.01~0.06 for those with small time-dependent responses. No matter how significant time-dependent responses are for rocks considered, our results showed that the relaxation time has a general range of 1~10^10 s, whose time scale can be one or two orders higher than a time frame typically envisioned for CO2 injection projects.

Stress relaxation, 3D time-dependent model, viscoe↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characteristics of Fluid‐Solid Interaction Constitutive Models Within Poroelastodynamics at Higher Strain‐Rates and Large Deformations Implemented in 1D

The large deformation, mixed formulation, finite element (FE) modeling approach presented in Irwin et al. 2024 is extended herein to include improved constitutive models for representing dynamic solid-fluid interactions at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger overpressure magnitudes (𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 )⁢kPa) within a biphasic soft porous material using Theory of Porous Media (TPM) at finite strain. Specifically, these constitutive modeling improvements are the following: (i) a more physically robust constitutive model for pore fluid seepage velocity via inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress, and (ii) a modified deformation-dependent-permeability model and updated hyperelastic constitutive model better suited for handling larger volumetric compressions and extensions. The novelty of the present work is mainly the contribution (i): inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress at higher strain-rate and large deformations, which requires 𝐶 1 continuity in the weak formulation, accomplished by employing Hermite cubic interpolation functions within a mixed nonlinear poromechanical finite element formulation. In (ii), the model is updated to weakly enforce solid phase incompressibility, such that this assumption is not violated numerically, which provides improved numerical stability for achieving larger overpressure magnitudes on 𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 ) kPa, which were not achievable with the previous Kozeny–Carman model in Irwin et al. 2024. Also in (ii), the volumetric part of the solid skeleton free energy function is modified to ensure proper bounds on the solid skeleton Jacobian of deformation 𝐽 s related to incompressibility of the solid phase. Uniaxial strain, unidirectional flow examples at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger deformations (up to 0.2 (or 20%) nominal axial strain) demonstrate the improved physical representation—and numerical stability—of these constitutive model improvements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Use of Shallow Ice Core Measurements to Evaluate and Constrain 1980–1990 Global Reanalyses of Ice Sheet Precipitation Rates

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) projections by Earth System Models (ESMs) depend on ice sheet surface mass balances. Accurate, global atmosphere reanalyses would be ideal for providing equilibrated ice sheet model initial conditions in fully coupled ESM simulations. Here we present the first evaluation of 1980–1990 global reanalysis precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica that uses independent observations of net accumulation rates derived from shallow ice cores. Precipitation distributions from both the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast's Reanalysis (ERA5) and the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA‐2) are highly correlated with contemporaneous co‐located net accumulation rates from Greenland ( r 2 > 0.95) and West Antarctica ( r 2 > 0.7). Three other commonly used reanalyses (WFDE5, CRUNCEP, and GSWP3) exhibit significantly weaker correlations on one or both ice sheets. Our findings imply that ESMs should use ERA5 or MERRA‐2 in data‐forced simulations to validate ice sheet model dynamics and precondition firn for SLR projections.

Schneider, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale Investigation of the Mechanisms Controlling the Corrosion of Borosilicate Glasses in Hyper-Alkaline Media

The overarching goal of the present multiscale investigation is to unearth the kinetics and mechanisms of corrosion of borosilicate glasses in hyper-alkaline (pH = 13) environments as a function of their chemical composition. Accordingly, a series of 3- to 6-component borosilicate glasses have been designed starting from Na 2 O–B 2 O 3 –SiO 2 ternary, wherein the compositional complexity has been added in a systematic tiered approach, finally resulting in the composition of the well-known international simple glass (ISG). Tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH), one of the most widely used alkaline etchant in the glass and electronics industry, has been used as the corrosion media. A series of state-of-the-art characterization techniques including magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy, elastic recoil detection analysis, and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy have been employed to unearth the compositional dependence of glass corrosion in hyper-alkaline environments. The glass compositions underwent congruent corrosion in the forward rate regime, whereas the controlling mechanism of corrosion in the residual rate regime depends on the presence/absence of Ca in the surrounding environment and can be explained on the basis of the dissolution–reprecipitation model. The dependence of corrosion kinetics and the chemistry of alteration products (in the residual rate regime) on the glass composition have been discussed. Here, the results presented in this contribution will ultimately supplement the scientific literature attempting to understand the fundamental science governing the aqueous corrosion of silicate-based glass chemistries and add to the growing database required to develop non-empirical predictive models for designing glasses with controlled dissolution rates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Echo state network for coarsening dynamics of charge density waves

An echo state network (ESN) is a type of reservoir computer that uses a recurrent neural network with a sparsely connected hidden layer. Compared with other recurrent neural networks, one great advantage of ESN is the simplicity of its training process. Yet, despite the seemingly restricted learnable parameters, ESN has been shown to successfully capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of complex patterns. Here we build an ESN to model the coarsening dynamics of charge-density waves (CDWs) in a semiclassical Holstein model, which exhibits a checkerboard electron density modulation at half-filling stabilized by a commensurate lattice distortion. The inputs to the ESN are local CDW order parameters in a finite neighborhood centered around a given site, while the output is the predicted CDW order of the center site at the next time step. Special care is taken in the design of couplings between hidden layer and input nodes to ensure lattice symmetries are properly incorporated into the ESN model. Since the model predictions depend only on CDW configurations of a finite domain, the ESN is scalable and transferrable in the sense that a model trained on dataset from a small system can be directly applied to dynamical simulations on larger lattices. Furthermore, our work opens avenues for efficient dynamical modeling of pattern formations in functional electron materials.

2-dimensional systems↗