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DOE OSTI2020

Two-Layer Dynamic Recycling Model (2L-DRM): Learning from Moisture Tracking Models of Different Complexity

Atmospheric moisture tracking models are used to identify and quantify sources and sinks of water in the atmospheric branch of the hydrologic cycle. These models are primarily used to investigate the origin of moisture resulting in precipitation for particular regions around the globe. Moisture tracking models vary widely in their level of complexity, depending on the number of physical processes represented. Complex models are comprehensive in their physical representation, but computationally much more expensive than simple models, which only focus on specific physical processes and use simplifying assumptions. We present the mathematical derivation of the new two-layer dynamical recycling model (2L-DRM), a simple analytical moisture tracking model that relaxes the vertically-integrated formulation of the original one-layer DRM (Dominguez et al., 2006). By comparing the simple DRM to a very complex moisture tracking model that uses water vapor tracers embedded within the Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model (WRF-WVT) for the North American Monsoon region, we pinpoint the absence of vertical wind shear as the main deficiency in the simple DRM. When comparing both simple models (DRM and 2L-DRM) to the WRF-WVT (which we treat as ‘truth’), the 2L-DRM better captures the spatial extent, the net amount and the temporal variability of precipitation that originates from oceanic and local terrestrial sources. The 2L-DRM is well suited to study the large-scale climatological sources of moisture, and for these applications, performs on-par with the much more complex and computationally demanding WRF-WVT model.

Dominguez, Francina↗

DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shifting Between Compute and Memory Bounds: A Compression-Enabled Roofline Model

In the evolving landscape of high-performance computing, especially to fight the end of Moore’s Law and Dennard’s Scaling, the ability to shift between compute-bound and memory-bound states is critical for enhancing adaptability and flexibility to diverse system and domain-specific architectures. Such capability is vital for optimizing performance across distinguished hardware configurations, such as accelerators, memory hierarchies, and cache systems. Despite that ad hoc optimization techniques, such as compressed/approximate computation, have been enabled for compute-/data-intensive computing for improved performance in distinct hardware settings, there lacks an understanding of 1) the rational behind performance improvement; 2) capability of different optimizations; 3) what optimization to respond to specific computational and memory demands. This work proposes a compression-enabled roofline model to facilitate this adaptability with data compression techniques to balance and transform between computational and memory demands. This model enables applications to adjust in response to the specific strengths and limitations of the underlying hardware and system to optimize resource utilization. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated with matrix multiplication kernels on different input sizes, with turning on/off various compression techniques, including 1) low-precision floating point; 2) sparse matrix formulation; and 3) compressed arrays with ZFP. By reducing memory transfer volumes and cache misses and increasing data locality and computational intensity through compression, the specific roofline model can transform between compute and memory bounds to align more efficiently with system capabilities. This advancement not only improves overall performance but also maximizes adaptability in diverse computing environments.

Naraparaju, Ramasoumya [University of Washington]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking

The intermittency of carbon-free renewables and the demand changes associated with the widespread push for electrifying the transportation and building sectors provides an opportunity for buildings to go beyond energy efficiency and push towards providing demand flexibility to the electricity grid. The duality of energy efficiency and demand flexibility is necessary for success in a sustainable and reliable energy transition. Current building energy benchmarking models are limited in their ability to integrate concepts of demand flexibility and/or utilize granular smart meter data. Thus, current benchmarking methods are focused annual energy usage and fail to incorporate how the time of use of energy consumption impacts emissions in a quickly changing energy grid. Without a more comprehensive view of energy usage and associated real-time emissions, current benchmarking methods are unlikely to realize the full decarbonization potential of buildings. New emerging data streams provide an opportunity to develop a new generation of benchmarking energy models that embed dimensions of energy efficiency, grid interactivity, and demand flexibility into their analysis. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for embedding grid interactivity and demand flexibility into building benchmarking models that utilizes emerging building and time-series electricity data streams. We first engineer features to produce a mix-type dataset that encompasses many attributes of grid-interactive and efficient buildings, and then we apply K-medoids using Gower's Distance to produce peer-group clusters. We apply the method to a case study of 306 primary and secondary schools in southern California, USA. The results show that the method effectively clusters buildings by attributes of demand flexibility and energy efficiency. The clustering results reveal patterns in inefficient building operations and demand inflexibility at the building peer group level. In conclusion, the interpretation of clusters can serve as an integrated energy efficiency and demand flexibility benchmarking model and inform performance-specific policy targeting for buildings that go beyond traditional efficiency measures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic volumetric heat source model for laser additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale models of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) offer insights into the process-structure-property relationships in additive manufacturing (AM). These models often neglect physical phenomena such as vapor cavity formation and fluid mechanics to reduce computational demands. Instead, volumetric heat source models are used to represent the effects that these phenomena have on the predicted melt pool dimensions. Generally, the dimensions and effective absorption of the volumetric heat source are calibrated to reproduce melt pool dimensions observed in metallographic cross sections taken from single-track experiments on bare plate. However, the transient nature of LPBF often deviates the melt pool dimensions from the assumed steady-state conditions of single-track experiments, motivating the need for a volumetric heat source model that more generally considers the dynamic relationship between melt pool shape and laser-material interactions. Here, we introduce a two-parameter volumetric heat source model that integrates several existing models into a generalized mathematical expression, providing independent control over the radial heat distribution via the parameter k and the volumetric shape of the heat source via the parameter m. This parameterization enables the calibration of melt pool shape predictions through simultaneous adjustment of these parameters, while keeping the radial heat source dimensions consistent with the experimental spot size (D4σ) and constraining the heat source depth and absorption to physically derived expressions for cavities. Consequently, the proposed volumetric heat source model adapts to changes in the local melt pool conditions due to scanning strategy and part geometry by dynamically adjusting the heat source depth and absorption. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed model through comparisons with a collection of experiments from the Additive Manufacturing Benchmark (AMBench).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Midfidelity model verification for a point-absorbing wave energy converter with linear power take-off

In the preliminary design stage of a wave energy converter (WEC), researchers need fast and reliable simulation tools. High-fidelity numerical models are usually employed to study the wave-structure interaction, but the computational cost is demanding. As an alternative, midfidelity models can provide simulations in the order of real time. In this study, we operate Uppsala University’s WEC in a relatively mild sea state and model it using WEC-Sim. The model is verified based on OpenFOAM simulations. To analyze the ability of the midfidelity model to capture WEC dynamics, we investigate the system separately with 1, 2, and 3 degrees of freedom. We examine the contribution of viscous phenomena, and study both linear and weakly nonlinear solutions provided by WEC-Sim. Our results indicate that the viscous effects can be neglected in heave and surge motion, but not for pitch. We also find that the weakly nonlinear WEC-Sim solution successfully agrees with the computational fluid dynamics, whereas the linear solution could suggest misleading results.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Midfidelity Model Verification for a Point-Absorbing Wave Energy Converter with Linear Power Takeoff: Preprint

In the preliminary design stage of a wave energy converter (WEC), fast and reliable simulation tools are required. High-fidelity numerical models are usually employed to study the wave-structure interaction, yet the computational cost is demanding. Instead, mid-fidelity models provide simulations in the order of real time. In this study, Uppsala University WEC operates in a relatively mild sea state and is modeled using WEC-Sim. The model is verified based on OpenFOAM simulations. To analyze the ability of mid-fidelity model to capture the WEC dynamics, the system is investigated separately in 1, 2 and 3 DoF. The contribution of viscous phenomena is examined. Moreover, linear and weakly non-linear solutions provided by WEC-Sim are studied. The results obtained indicate that the viscous effects in heave and surge motion can be neglected but not for the pitch. The weakly non-linear WEC-Sim solution successfully agrees with the CFD, whereas the linear solution could drive to misleading results.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Midfidelity Model Verification for a Point-Absorbing Wave Energy Converter with Linear Power Take-Off

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Modeling of Landau Damping with Deep Operator Networks

Kinetic simulations excel at capturing microscale plasma physics phenomena with high accuracy, but their computational demands make them impractical for modeling large-scale space and astrophysical systems. In this context, we build a surrogate model, using Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets), based upon the Vlasov–Poisson simulation data to model the dynamical evolution of plasmas, focusing on the Landau damping process—a fundamental kinetic phenomenon in space and astrophysical plasmas. The trained DeepONets are able to capture the evolution of electric field energy in both linear and nonlinear regimes under various conditions. Extensive validation highlights DeepONets’ robust performance in reproducing complex plasma behaviors with high accuracy, paving the way for large-scale modeling of space and astrophysical plasmas.

plasma astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗

DOE OSTI2020

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative study of adaptive variational quantum eigensolvers for multi-orbital impurity models

Hybrid quantum-classical embedding methods for correlated materials simulations provide a path towards potential quantum advantage. However, the required quantum resources arising from the multi-band nature of d and f electron materials remain largely unexplored. Here we compare the performance of different variational quantum eigensolvers in ground state preparation for interacting multi-orbital embedding impurity models, which is the computationally most demanding step in quantum embedding theories. Focusing on adaptive algorithms and models with 8 spin-orbitals, we show that state preparation with fidelities better than 99.9% can be achieved using about 2 14 shots per measurement circuit. When including gate noise, we observe that parameter optimizations can still be performed if the two-qubit gate error lies below 10 -3 , which is slightly smaller than current hardware levels. Finally, we measure the ground state energy on IBM and Quantinuum hardware using a converged adaptive ansatz and obtain a relative error of 0.7%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance on HPC Platforms Is Possible Without C++

Computing at large scales has become extremely challenging due to increasing heterogeneity in both hardware and software. More and more scientific workflows must tackle a range of scales and use machine learning and AI intertwined with more traditional numerical modeling methods, placing more demands on computational platforms. These constraints indicate a need to fundamentally rethink the way computational science is done and the tools that are needed to enable these complex workflows. The current set of C++-based solutions may not suffice, and relying exclusively upon C++ may not be the best option, especially because several newer languages and boutique solutions offer more robust design features to tackle the challenges of heterogeneity. In June 2023, we held a mini symposium that explored the use of newer languages and heterogeneity solutions that are not tied to C++ and that offer options beyond template metaprogramming and Parallel. For for performance and portability. In conclusion, we describe some of the presentations and discussion from the mini symposium in this article.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Study of Cost-Saving Potential of Load Flexibility Measures in Grid-Interactive Multifamily Buildings

With recent advances in smart technologies, more and more smart devices are penetrating the residential and commercial buildings market. The introduction of these smart devices is also helping IoT companies emerge with load aggregator roles in the sector. With more utility companies on the track of supporting OpenADR protocols, the aggregators could play a significant role in providing load flexibilities by automatically responding to demand response (DR) events and coordinating load flexibility measures between customers. This would benefit utility companies by reducing stress on the grid during critical peak demand hours as well as customers by allowing them to utilize utility rate structures advantageous to those able to reduce electric usage during high-demand hours. This study evaluates cost and energy savings from adopting multiple load flexibility measures in multifamily buildings. Combinations of different load flexibility measures, including space temperature floating, light dimming, automatic window shading, and water heater temperature floating, are considered. The simulations are performed using OpenStudio®, an open-source U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) simulation platform. For the case study, we used a midrise apartment building with weather conditions from Denver, Colorado. To compare climate zone differences, simulations were also performed for Los Angeles, California, and Chicago, Illinois. Initial results indicate that the application of automated load flexibility measures without careful consideration of dispatching strategies and DR program enrollments could significantly affect the savings. To get meaningful cost savings, aggregators need to encourage tenant awareness to curtail energy usage through occupant behavior in addition to dispatching automatic load flexibility measures. The outcomes from this study are believed to help load aggregators understand the risks and benefits of load flexibility opportunities.

building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Macro Analysis to Estimate Electric Vehicles Fast-Charging Infrastructure Requirements in Small Urban Areas

Electric vehicles (EVs) are known to reduce emissions and fossil fuel dependency. However, the limited range, long charging time, and inadequate charging infrastructure have hampered the adoption of EVs. The current EV charging infrastructure planning studies and tools require detailed information, extensive resources, and skills that can be a significant barrier to urban areas for finding the required charging infrastructure to support a targeted EV market share. This study generates regression models to estimate the number of direct current fast charging stations and the chargers to support the EV charging demand for urban areas. These models provide macro-level estimates of the required infrastructure investment in urban areas, which can be easily implemented by policy-makers and city planners. This study incorporates data obtained from applying a disaggregate optimization-based charger placement model, developed recently by the same authors, for multiple case studies to generate the required data to calibrate the macro-level models, in the state of Michigan. This simulated data set includes the number of charging stations and chargers for each market share, technology advancement scenario, and the transportation network topology. The results show that the number of charging stations reduces with battery size and charging power and increases with EV market share and the road network lane length. The number of chargers reduces with charging power, whereas it increases with battery size, EV market share, and vehicle miles traveled in the system. The model developed here can be applied to any state having urban characteristics and weather conditions similar to Michigan.

Engineering↗