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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Fifth-Generation District Heating and Cooling Substations: Demand Response with Artificial Neural Network-Based Model Predictive Control

District heating and cooling (DHC) is considered one of the most sustainable technologies to meet the heating and cooling demands of buildings in urban areas. The fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) concept, often referred to as ambient loops, is a novel solution emerging in Europe and has become a widely discussed topic in current energy system research. 5GDHC systems operate at a temperature close to the ground and include electrically driven heat pumps and associated thermal energy storage in a building-sited energy transfer station (ETS) to satisfy user comfort. This work presents new strategies for improving the operation of these energy transfer stations by means of a model predictive control (MPC) method based on recurrent artificial neural networks. The results show that, under simple time-of-use utility rates, the advanced controller outperforms a rule-based controller for smart charging of the domestic hot water (DHW) thermal energy storage under specific boundary conditions. By exploiting the available thermal energy storage capacity, the MPC controller is capable of shifting up to 14% of the electricity consumption of the ETS from on-peak to off-peak hours. Therefore, the advanced control implemented in 5GDHC networks promotes coupling between the thermal and the electric sector, producing flexibility on the electric grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electric Water Heaters for Transactive Systems: Model Evaluations and Performance Quantification

Electric water heaters (EWHs) are opportune appliances for implementing demand-side control. EWH models serve as a fundamental step toward accurately estimating EWH flexibility potential and designing proper control strategies. Existing studies have adapted numerous modeling approaches in evaluating the potential of EWHs for a variety of grid applications. This paper presents an analytical study that evaluates the performance of state-of-art EWH models in terms of accuracy and computational complexity for adaptation in evaluation studies for the transactive system. The work proposes a transactive control strategy that optimally utilizes the thermal inertia of EWHs for providing grid services. Here, the performance of the control strategy and the impact of modeling accuracy is evaluated for device-level and feeder-level use cases using the IEEE 123 node test distribution system appropriately populated with EWHs. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the control strategy in reducing the feeder demand during peak period by 13% and also quantities the impact of using simplified modeling approaches for determining the potential of EWHs for providing grid services.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1984

Multi-crew Model Analytic Assessment of Landing Performance and Decision-making Demands

Some of the relative merits of the PROCRU approach to modelling multi-crew flight deck activity during approach to landing are discussed. On the basis of two realistic flight scenarios, the ability of the model to simulate different vectored approaches is demonstrated. A secondary exemplary analysis of a nominal and an accelerated final approach is performed, illustrating the potential of the expected net gain (ENGP) functions as a measure of decision-making load.

Milgram, P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Continuous integration data-driven platform of industrial-scale subsurface storage for real-time analytics

This project helped address the growing need for efficient and scalable models to support geological carbon and energy storage, which are crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. Traditionally accurate high-fidelity numerical models have been used to simulate relevant storage processes under a handful of processes, however such models are computationally demanding, making uncertainty quantification impractical. Consequently, we first developed a machine learning framework, based on Graph Neural Operators (GNOs), to improving the accuracy of model predictions for a fixed computational budget. We then developed an Ensemble of Improved Neural Operators (ENO), which uses bagging and Monte Carlo dropout techniques, to further improve prediction accuracy. Lastly, we developed the way to explain progressive transfer learning methods to reduce the amount of training data and computational cost of training (i.e., reduce trainable parameters) when using our models for multiple storage sites. Our numerical investigation, which used real-world case studies, demonstrated that our framework can significantly improve the safety and efficiency of geological storage operations, with potential applications in other domains such as geothermal reservoirs and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

EV Charging and the Impacts of Electricity Demand Charges

These slides were presented at the Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator's (LACI's) April 2022 combined Light-Duty and Goods Movement Working Group meetings. The talk summarized recent and ongoing research at NREL to model EV charging demands for passenger and commercial M/HD vehicles and estimate the impacts of utility demand charges on charging costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Modeling of Three-Phase Grid-Supporting Inverters for Dynamic Studies

Grid technologies connected by power electronic converter (PEC) interfaces continually implement grid support functions mandated by grid codes and standards. The transition to converter-based generation demands precise PEC models to assess system dynamics, which have been previously overlooked in conventional power systems. This study proposes a hybrid method for analyzing grid-connected three-phase PEC dynamics with the IEEE standard 1547-2018 Volt-VAr mode that combines physics and data-driven techniques. The physics model reflects the PEC’s internal behavior, whereas the data-driven modeling technique evaluates the grid-supporting capabilities of the smart PEC. The system identification approach is used to generate dynamic PEC models based on changing grid voltage and measured current injected into the grid by the PEC. In the Volt-VAr support mode, a detailed topological model including switches is utilized to compare the goodness-of-fit of the extracted hybrid dynamic model. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PEC model in the Volt-VAr mode accurately matches the dynamics with the topological model.

Subedi, Sunil↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seamlessly Fuel Flexible Heat Pump with Optimal Model-based Control Strategies to Reduce Peak Demand, Utility Cost and CO2 Emission

This research develops a novel hybrid fuel heat pump system for space heating of residential and small commercial buildings with built-in optimization and control. Whereas conventional dual fuel systems either run on gas or electricity at any given moment, the proposed seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP) simultaneously consumes gas and electricity and continuously optimizes the proportion of each. The building air flows across the heat pump condenser first and then flows across the furnace coil, and this reduces the heat pump temperature lift. The SFFHP delivers energy savings by allowing each subsystem (gas furnace and electric heat pump) to operate where it performs best to improve energy efficiency, minimize energy cost, and minimize carbon footprint. The capacities of the electric heat pump and gas furnace are continuously adjusted based on ambient conditions, utility price signals, and marginal grid emission signals. An optimal model predictive control strategy was developed with the goal of minimizing utility cost and minimizing CO2 emission. Two case studies were conducted to simulate the performance of SFFHP during the heating season in Chicago and Los Angeles, respectively. Compared with a conventional electric heat pump, SFFHP yields 33% utility cost reduction and 49% CO2 emission reduction in Chicago. Similarly, it achieves 23% utility cost reduction and 17% CO2 emission reduction in Los Angeles. Case studies demonstrate that SFFHP can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO2 emission. Due to the hybrid fuel nature of this novel equipment, user comfort will always be maintained. The fuel flexibility makes it an attractive option for demand response programs.

Li, Zhenning↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, This is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Steam Electrolysis Process Performance and Cost Estimates - DOE Hydrogen Program AMR Presentation

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) of electrolysis systems have dramatically increased in recent years as the interest in clean hydrogen production and decarbonization of transportation, industrial and other sectors increases across the globe. This is especially true of high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) / solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems which show promise of much higher system efficiencies than other more developed electrolysis technologies. This possibility of higher efficiencies of HTSE / SOEC systems has been previously assumed to be theoretically possible but in recent years it has become less theoretical and more realistic as an increasing amount of suppliers complete lab and pilot tests showing very promising results. Research in the areas of manufacturing techniques, material selection, electrode and electrolyte compositions, and balance of plant size and integration continues at a fast pace as an increasing number of suppliers both internationally and domestically become involved. The advantages of HTSE become more pronounced when HTSE is coupled with nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is because thermal energy produced by the nuclear reactor can be used in a series of heat transfer loops and heat exchangers to vaporize HTSE feedwater, which drastically improves the economics of the process. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has been very involved in the research and modeling of HTSE systems for a number of years, in collaboration with other national laboratories, academia, and industry stakeholders both on the hydrogen production as well as the hydrogen demand side. The modeling completed over the years on a large variety of projects has led to a wealth of knowledge at INL including in the area of the technoeconomic assessment (TEA) of HTSE systems. TEAs include process modeling of the HTSE systems to calculate system energy requirements and equipment sizing, followed by estimation of capital and operating costs to enable calculation of the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The TEA work performed has produced incremental improvements and tuning of the methods, assumptions, models, and results of the analyses as well as providing some opportunities for validating these results. The purpose of this document is to record the current baseline HTSE analyses led by INL to show the current status of assumptions and costs of these systems. Given the rapid development of this technology, the variety of suppliers entering the space, and the increasing attention government and industry are giving to such systems, this document may be updated on a periodic basis with updated analysis and assumptions. This document compiles various analyses results and approaches completed over a period of years into a single document to be used as a baseline going forward. It represents what the INL HTSE analysis group assumes to be the internal best estimate of the current operation, costs, and landscape of the HTSE industry state of the art capability for current SOEC technology in an Nth-of-a-Kind (NOAK) plant, which in this study is defined as existence of the manufacturing capacity to support previous deployment of N = 100 count of 25 MWe modular HTSE blocks (with modular equipment component cost reductions specified as following a 95% learning curve). That said, this is a public document and as such so no proprietary data was used or included in this report. There may be HTSE suppliers that have performance specifications, and cost estimates, and test data that differ from the analysis presented in this document. This document is meant to be a best conservative estimate of the technology and not an absolute reference.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Airport Delay Prediction with Temporal Fusion Transformers

Since flight delay hurts passengers, airlines, and airports, its prediction becomes crucial for the decision-making of all stakeholders in the aviation industry and thus has been attempted by various previous research. However, previous delay predictions are often categorical and at a highly aggregated level. To improve that, this study proposes to apply the novel Temporal Fusion Transformer model and predict numerical airport arrival delays at quarter hour level for U.S. top 30 airports. Inputs to our model include airport demand and capacity forecasts, historic airport operation efficiency information, airport wind and visibility conditions, as well as en-route weather and traffic conditions. The results show that our model achieves satisfactory performance measured by small prediction errors on the test set. In addition, the interpretability analysis of the model outputs identifies the important input factors for delay prediction.

Liu, Ke [University of California Berkeley]↗
NASA NTRS1974

User's instructions for the Grodins' respiratory control model using the UNIVAC 1110 remote batch and demand processing

The transient and steady state response of the respiratory control system for variations in volumetric fractions of inspired gases and special system parameters are modeled. The program contains the capability to change workload. The program is based on Grodins' respiratory control model and can be envisioned as a feedback control system comprised of a plant (the controlled system) and the regulating component (controlling system). The controlled system is partitioned into 3 compartments corresponding to lungs, brain, and tissue with a fluid interconnecting patch representing the blood.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing peak electricity demand for U.S. households: an assessment of end-use loads and demand factors

Understanding household peak electricity demand is critical to evaluate the technical need for electrical infrastructure upgrades. This study characterizes peak loads for existing and new equipment using metered data from a convenience sample of 11,940 U.S. dwellings from four sources, including 911 from two sources with end-use metering. After standardized data cleaning and labeling, we derived descriptive statistics for key metrics, such as maximum demand and demand factors, and developed predictive models relating 60- to 15-min demand for the National Electrical Code (NEC). Mean 15-min maximum demand was 9.7 kW (median 9.0 kW; IQR 7.0–11.5 kW, 95% CI 9.6–9.8 kW), indicating spare capacity in 98% of homes with hypothetical 100 A panels. Maximum demand increased with floor area and number of high-demand loads. Dwelling maximum demand was driven by higher-power, longer-duration heating appliances and vehicle charging, while most user-operated appliances contributed little. Demand factors are used to account for how most devices contribute less than their rated power to maximum demand. Existing load mean demand factors (28%; median 10%; IQR 0–58%; CI 28–29%) were higher than those for new loads (21%; median 7%; IQR 0–35%; CI 20–21%), because new loads changed the timing and magnitude of maximum demand. New high-demand loads had higher than average demand factors (40–60%). Whole dwelling demand factors support the NEC's 40% assumption, but they challenge its conservative 100% treatment of new HVAC. We propose a data-driven 50% demand factor for new equipment, which would align with metered data, improve affordability, and modernize electrical codes.

Appliances↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the performance of first- and last-mile mobility services through transit coordination, real-time demand prediction, advanced reservations, and trip prioritization

Socio-demographic trends and recent economic development patterns have resulted in travel behavior changes that call for more flexible and accessible public transit options. Because flexible transit services vary in scope, size, and service type, new data-informed methods are useful to optimize services based on the specific needs of local communities and riders. In this study, real-world demand and vehicle trajectory data were used to evaluate and optimize system performance for an existing first-mile–last-mile (FMLM) service in Robinson Township, PA. A general FMLM model for arbitrary demand and service supply was then developed to quantify system performance—both travel time costs and day-to-day reliability—for various operational polices considering spatio-temporal demand variation and transportation network dynamics. Heuristics were used for optimal real-time vehicle routing in sizable real-world networks accommodating various service types and scopes. In this case study, total user costs were reduced by 18.6% when rides were coordinated with mainline fixed-route transit. Predictive routing strategies were shown to marginally improve system performance under sparse and variable spatio-temporal demand. The case study also highlights potentially large travel time and user reliability improvements—reductions of 51% and 53.8%, respectively—when trip requests were made in advance of their desired pickup time. Finally, we show that travel time reliability can be improved for time-inflexible trips with trip prioritization without increasing total user costs. These results were stable to changes in demand density.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hardware In the Loop for Demand Flexibility (HIL4DF) v1.0

The software package in question is a collection of simulation models in the Modelica language, representing a variety of mechanical system designs and envelope conditions related to LBL's FLEXLAB facility. The collection of models also features multiple controls sequences that can be simulated with the FLEXLAB model to simulate different demand flexibility scenarios. Additionally, this package will feature datasets from 3 experimental tests, used for calibration, validation and comparison against the Modelica models, this includes weather data that can be used to replicate different scenarios in simulation across the same weather conditions experienced in real experiments. Given FLEXLAB high level of instrumentation and available data, the models are calibrated across multiple measurement points, and thus results from the extension of this model to other climate zones or control sequences, would provide high level of confidence.

Huang, Weiping↗
DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis for the Addition of Thermal Energy Storage to a Campus With Existing Battery Storage

Rising global temperatures and increasing energy demands pose significant challenges for energy management, particularly in institutional and commercial settings. As cooling needs grow, campuses must balance operational efficiency, cost control, and grid stability. Energy storage solutions, such as thermal energy storage (TES) systems, offer a promising approach to shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak periods, alleviating peak demand, reducing utility costs, and enhancing grid resilience. When integrated with existing battery energy storage systems (BESS), TES can further optimize load management and improve energy savings, especially in buildings with diverse energy needs. This article presents a techno-economic analysis of integrating a chilled water TES system into the central plant at California State University, Dominguez Hills, which already operates a BESS. We assess three TES sizing strategies—full storage, load leveling, and peak demand limiting—by modeling and simulations based on historical energy loads. Our findings show that we can control TES systems to complement BESS operation, with campus-level load leveling providing the greatest cost savings by reducing peak demands. Furthermore, the study also evaluates the long-term economic viability of TES, considering installation costs, energy savings, and payback periods under varying tariffs. This research offers practical guidance for institutions seeking to enhance energy resilience and reduce operational costs through energy storage solutions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗