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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Role in Putting Earth Science Information to Use in Decision-Making

The demand for decision-relevant climate information is continually growing, both because of the severity and intensity of climate change impacts and because of the growing recognition that people can take actions today that will mitigate the risk from future climate impacts. Agencies across the federal government are responding to this need by working together to support the Nation in becoming more resilient to climate change. NASA Earth Science has been a key engine of understanding global climate change and how it impacts people around the world. Additionally, for over two decades, the Agency has worked, via partnerships, to connect NASA Earth Science knowledge with decision support needs, often taking a service-oriented approach by working with boundary organizations and climate service providers. In this presentation, we describe NASA’s unique role in enabling new and practical uses of Earth science information, and how the Agency supports public and private sector partners. We highlight several key examples of NASA projects and activities that support local to regional climate resilience efforts. In addition, we discuss how NASA’s new Earth Information Center, a partnership among several federal agencies, enables in-person and virtual visitors to see how our planet is changing in ways that affect their lives and livelihoods. Lastly, we discuss plans for how NASA Earth Science will continue to help build a more climate resilient future.

earth science↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation

The questions answered by this report are: What are the implications of nuclear and conventional intermingling on crisis stability and the potential risk of miscalculation?, and Specifically, how might entanglement influence US and competitor decision making during crisis and conflict? In practice, there are three main forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling. First, intermingling between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems can occur via the fielding of dual capable delivery systems like missiles or aircraft. Second, intermingling can happen due to the co-location of nuclear and non-nuclear forces and their support structures—for example, the co-location of strategic bombers and general-purpose aircraft, or the co-location of strategic submarines and general-purpose vessels. Third, intermingling can occur via convolving nuclear and conventional military command and control systems, to include ballistic missile early warning and potentially space surveillance systems as well. All three forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling have significantly increased since the end of the Cold War, driven by both technological and doctrinal changes. However, there are important differences in the rationale behind, and also the risks associated with these three different forms of intermingling. The mere existence of dual capable systems is not new— deploying such systems can increase the effectiveness of forces, and it can also provide more flexibility. The major powers have both employed and threatened with dual capable systems for decades, and they have done so without nuclear escalation. Similarly, the major powers co-located nuclear and conventional systems in the Cold War, and they did so for variety of reasons that had nothing to do with complicating the adversary’s risk calculus. The Soviet Union, for example, decided to co-locate its nuclear and conventional forces for economic and administrative reasons. Although today it might be recognized as a useful deterrent tool, it was not their primary intention. Major powers want to convince rivals that the co-location of forces creates a high bar for targeting and raises the risk of nuclear escalation, but they also want to have the flexibility of this not being true in an actual crisis or conflict.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Panel Session 33: Aligning Decision-Making to Deliver Timely Performance in Large Results-Based Programs

The panel focused on results-based project execution and ways to improve the effectiveness of program and project-specific decisions by gearing them to consistently achieving timely, cost-efficient, and sustainable results. Panelists discussed the complexities of making sound, actionable decisions in the face of budgetary, resource and technological constraints. Toward that end, the 10 panelists responded to the following questions: 1. What decision-making process has been most effective for you and your project team? 2. How effective are the incentives in your contract? 3. What would you be doing differently if your project were being executed on purely commercial terms? 4. Are your Contractor Assurance Programs effective? 5. Have we challenged industry and national laboratories to deliver revolutionary rather than evolutionary technologies to solve challenges? 6. What can we do to make stakeholder involvement more meaningful? 7. How do you apply lessons learned from events and issues like the Mixed Oxide Facility (MOX), the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) event, and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) incident?.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1975

An interactive driving simulation for driver control and decision-making research

Display techniques and equations of motion for a relatively simple fixed base car simulation are described. The vehicle dynamics include simplified lateral (steering) and longitudinal (speed) degrees of freedom. Several simulator tasks are described which require a combination of operator control and decision making, including response to wind gust inputs, curved roads, traffic signal lights, and obstacles. Logic circuits are used to detect speeding, running red lights, and crashes. A variety of visual and auditory cues are used to give the driver appropriate performance feedback. The simulated equations of motion are reviewed and the technique for generating the line drawing CRT roadway display is discussed. On-line measurement capabilities and experimenter control features are presented, along with previous and current research results demonstrating simulation capabilities and applications.

Allen, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A study of decision-making behavior of aircraft pilots deviating from a planned flight

This paper outlines an investigation into the worth structures of pilots facing a deviation from a planned flight. A 'paper and pencil' simulation was used to frame the situation into which pilots interjected their own decision making skills in a simple ranking of candidate diversion airports with varying locational, navigational aid, radar and weather attributes. Using the conjoint measurement technique, attribute worth functions of 30 pilots were constructed. It was discovered that systematic differences in the worth functions of the pilots did not occur as a result of dividing the pilot sample according to any measure of flight hour experience. However, differences were found when the pilot sample was grouped according to grade of pilot certificate, type of pilot training, and type of flying most commonly done.

Flather, G. W., II↗
NASA NTRS1976

Factors Affecting the Corporate Decision-Making Process of Air Transport Manufacturers

Fuel economy is a pivotal question influencing the future sale and utilization of commercial aircraft. The NASA Aircraft Energy Efficiency (ACEE) Program Office has a program intended to accelerate the readiness of advanced technologies for energy efficient aircraft. Because the decision to develop a new airframe or engine is a major financial hazard for manufacturers, it is important to know what factors influence the decision making process. A method is described for identifying and ranking individuals and organizations involved at each stage of commercial air transport development, and the barriers that must be overcome in adopting new technologies.

Ollila, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Farmer characteristics and decision-making: A model for bioenergy crop adoption

We report the commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhancing Neural Network Decision-Making with Variational Autoencoders

Machine intelligence has been used to tackle increasingly complex problems and deep learning solutions are at the forefront of tackling these problems. In general, these architectures have a great number of parameters that are methodically updated in training. The vast number and complexity of deep neural networks makes it very difficult to decipher the inner workings of the neurons and layers that make up the network. This paper posits that trustworthiness and trust in autonomous systems are increased through eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) and presents a method that enhances the explainability and understanding of a neural network decision. We leverage variational autoencoders to produce human interpretable features from complex data sets. We show that the explainable features can then be used for machine learning applications. This explainability encourages people to be more inclined to justifiably trust machine decision-making.

Loc Tran↗
NASA NTRS1991

A software development and evolution model based on decision-making

Design is a complex activity whose purpose is to construct an artifact which satisfies a set of constraints and requirements. However the design process is not well understood. The software design and evolution process is the focus of interest, and a three dimensional software development space organized around a decision-making paradigm is presented. An initial instantiation of this model called 3DPM(sub p) which was partly implemented, is presented. Discussion of the use of this model in software reuse and process management is given.

Wild, J. Christian↗
NASA NTRS1978

The effects of alcohol on driver performance in a decision making situation

The results are reviewed of driving simulator and in-vehicle field test experiments of alcohol effects on driver risk taking. The objective was to investigate changes in risk taking under alcoholic intoxication and relate these changes to effects on traffic safety. The experiments involved complex 15 minute driving scenarios requiring decision making and steering and speed control throughout a series of typical driving situations. Monetary rewards and penalties were employed to simulate the real-world motivations inherent in driving. A full placebo experimental design was employed, and measures related to traffic safety, driver/vehicle performance and driver behavior were obtained. Alcohol impairment was found to increase the rate of accidents and speeding tickets. Behavioral measures showed these traffic safety effects to be due to impaired psychomotor performance and perceptual distortions. Subjective estimates of risk failed to show any change in the driver's willingness to take risks when intoxicated.

Allen, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Human decision making in future ATC systems comparative studies in distributed traffic management

Seven different human-centered alternatives for distributing traffic management responsibility between air and ground in the terminal area were simulated and evaluated at NASA-Ames Research Center in the man-machine integration branch. The alternatives differed in three divisions of decision-making responsibility ranging from completely ground-centered to completely air-centered and in the amount of information presented to the pilots via traffic situation displays (TSD). Objective, verbal and subjective measures of system performance, workloads, preferences, etc., were obtained. Based on the task and corresponding measures, the ground-centered (vectoring) alternative was the least favorable. Best overall performance was achieved and preferred with a moderate division of responsibility in which controllers issued sequence order only and pilots used a TSD with 30 sec path predictors on their own aircraft. Speculations on the use of the results in context of a ground-centralized system failure and for future ATC systems are presented.

Kreifeldt, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Role of Remotely Sensed Observations and Computational Systems in Support of Decision-Making in Developing and Fragile States

The topics covered in this slide presentation are: (1) Post-war growth of U.S scientific enterprise, (2) Success of air quality regulations, (3) Complexity and coupled systems, (4) Advances in remote sensing technology, (5) Development planning in the 21stcentury, (5a) The challenge for policy maker and scientist, (5b) Decision-making science, (5c) Role of public-private partnerships.

Khan, Maudood↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fossil Fuel Transitions Framework: Case Studies of the Decision-Making Process for Energy and Economic Development Pathways

Each community is unique, and transitions must be tailored to local and national contexts, with recognition that access to financing is a key differentiator between wealthy and low-to-middle income countries. This analysis examines six community fossil fuel transitions in two different country contexts to provide insights on inclusive processes and decision-making criteria that bring forth positive outcomes for the communities. In both the United States and Chile, a coordination mechanism is established across government agencies and the importance of stakeholder engagement is recognized. In many cases, the government, local community groups, and electric utility or industry players have a critical role in transition planning and support.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrating Indigenous Traditional, Local and Scientific Knowledge for Improved Management, Policy and Decision-Making in Reindeer Husbandry in the Russian Arctic

As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities begin to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This paper describes a new GIs-based system being designed to bring local and indigenous traditional knowledge together with scientific data and information, remote sensing, and information technologies to address health-related environment, weather, climate, pollution and land use change issues for improved decision/policy-making for reindeer husbandry. The system is building an easily-accessible archive of relevant current and historical, traditional, local and remotely-sensed and other data and observations for shared analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest. Protection of indigenous culturally sensitive information will be respected through appropriate data protocols. A mechanism which enables easy information sharing among all participants, which is real time and geo-referenced and which allows interconnectivity with remote sites is also being designed into the system for maximum communication among partners. A preliminary version of our system will be described for a Russian reindeer test site, which will include a combination of indigenous knowledge about local conditions and issues, remote sensing and ground-based data on such parameters as the vegetation state and distribution, snow cover, temperature, ice condition, and infrastructure.

Maynard, Nancy G.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

Depenbrock, Brett T.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Science Applications Program: Exploring Partnerships to Enhance Decision Making in Public Health Practice

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Science Enterprise is engaged in applications of NASA Earth science and remote sensing technologies for public health. Efforts are focused on establishing partnerships with those agencies and organizations that have responsibility for protecting the Nation's Health. The program's goal is the integration of NASA's advanced data and technology for enhanced decision support in the areas of disease surveillance and environmental health. A focused applications program, based on understanding partner issues and requirements, has the potential to significantly contribute to more informed decision making in public health practice. This paper intends to provide background information on NASA's investment in public health and is a call for partnership with the larger practice community.

Vann, Timi S.↗