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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 1 Sensor Data v1-2

This is the version 1-2 Level 1 (L1) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments.L1 data are close to raw, but are units-transformed and have out-of-instrument-bounds and out-of-service flags added. Duplicates and missing data are removed but otherwise these data are not filtered, and have not been subject to any additional algorithmic or human QA/QC. Any scientific analyses of L1 data should be performed with care. **This dataset will be updated quarterly with new data for the duration of the project**This dataset includes:- An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc.- Site- and year-specific folders, each holding up to 12 CSV (comma separated value) data files for each site and plot in that year.- Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site.- Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are normally logged every 15 minutes.Please see v1-2 TEMPEST L1 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning.The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods.* Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021* TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022* TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023* TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Simulation of a data archival and distribution system at GSFC

A version-0 of a Data Archive and Distribution System (DADS) is being developed at GSFC to support existing and pre-EOS Earth science datasets and test Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) concepts. The performance of DADS is predicted using a discrete event simulation model. The goals of the simulation were to estimate the amount of disk space needed and the time required to fulfill the DADS requirements for ingestion (14 GB/day) and distribution (48 GB/day). The model has demonstrated that 4 mm and 8 mm stackers can play a critical role in improving the performance of the DADS, since it takes, on average, 3 minutes to manually mount/dismount tapes compared to less than a minute with stackers. With two 4 mm stackers and two 8 mm stackers, and a single operator per shift, the DADS requirements can be met within 16 hours using a total of 9 GB of disk space. When the DADS has no stacker, and the DADS depends entirely on operators to handle the distribution tapes, the simulation has shown that the DADS requirements can still be met within 16 hours, but a minimum of 4 operators per shift were required. The compression/decompression of data sets is very CPU intensive, and relatively slow when performed in software, thereby contributing to an increase in the amount of disk space needed.

Bedet, Jean-Jacques↗
NASA NTRS1994

An overview of the EOSDIS V0 information management system: Lessons learned from the implementation of a distributed data system

The EOSDIS Version 0 system, released in July, 1994, is a working prototype of a distributed data system. One of the purposes of the V0 project is to take several existing data systems and coordinate them into one system while maintaining the independent nature of the original systems. The project is a learning experience and the lessons are being passed on to the architects of the system which will distribute the data received from the planned EOS satellites. In the V0 system, the data resides on heterogeneous systems across the globe but users are presented with a single, integrated interface. This interface allows users to query the participating data centers based on a wide set of criteria. Because this system is a prototype, we used many novel approaches in trying to connect a diverse group of users with the huge amount of available data. Some of these methods worked and others did not. Now that V0 has been released to the public, we can look back at the design and implementation of the system and also consider some possible future directions for the next generation of EOSDIS.

Ryan, Patrick M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Overview of TRMM Data Products and Services

November 27, 2007 marks the l0th anniversary of the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. In anticipation of this anniversary, this paper will present an overview of the various TRMM data products currently available including the standard products, near real-time products, special products, and prototype products. It also will present an easy way to obtain these data. TRMM standard products have been publicly available since a few months after launch in November 1997. TRMM is currently on version 6 of the data product. Version 3 was the "at launch" version. The approval for each of these versions came through the Joint TRMM Science Team. Standard products are divided into 3 categories: single TRMM instrument, Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and Precipitation Radar (PR); combined TRMM products (PR and TMI); finally TRMM and other satellites (combined, TMI, SSMI, AMSRE, AMSU). The single TRMM instrument products are processed through 4 levels: Level lA, science data packets processed into orbital files; Level 1B and lC, geolocated data at the instrument field of view; Level 2, geolocated, geophysical parameters at the instrument field of view; Level 3, time aggregated, gridded geophysical parameters. These products are available with 24 hours of production through an anonymous ftp account on trmmopen.gsfc.nasa.gov. The TRMM data system started to produce near real-time products at the end of 1999. They are currently available only through a controlled user account. However, approval to get access to this account can be obtained by sending a note to Erich.F.Stoclter@nasa.gov providing the reason for access and contact information including a valid email. TRMM is not restricting access but needs the information to determine the usefulness of near-real time data to the general science community including applications agencies. TRMM near real-time products are swath products up to Level 2 of processing. The oldest data in the swath is generally no older than 120 minutes when it becomes available to the community. The real-time products including a VIRS level lB, a TMI parameter reduced 1B, a TMI level 2 parameter reduced rain product, a PR level 2 surface rain product, and a PR level 2 rain product with 25 vertical levels. Currently, TRMM also produces a gridded 3 hour global merged product from several radiometers including AMSU and from radiometercalibrated IR data. The paper also describes several simple-format gridded text products available fiom the trmmopen.gsfc.nasa.gov anonymous fip server denoted as 3668 products. These products were produced to provide rain estimates from the three TRMM instruments in a universal format (ASCII) that requires very little data format knowledge. The paper goes on to describe prototype L1 radiometer products that apply an early intercalibration approach that provides a starting point to be used for Global Precipitation Measurement mission radiometer products. The paper also provides a brief overview of a precipitation features data product being produced using TRMM products including the Lighting Imaging Sensor (LIS) using an algorithm developed at the University of Utah and distributed by that organization. The paper concludes with some possible changes to products that are planned for the next reprocessing cycle and special services such as geographical subsetting available to the science community.

Stocker, Erich Franz↗
NASA NTRS2022

Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder Updates for the Global Precipitation Measurement V07 Data Suite

Observations from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F16, F17, F18, and F19 spacecrafts provide a significant portion of the microwave radiometer data within the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation. In preparation for the GPM Version 7 (V07) data release, SSMIS corrections developed over a decade ago and incorporated in GPM Version 5 (V05) are reexamined and updated. The calibration updates presented here include pointing parameters affecting geolocation and viewing geometry, along-scan bias adjustments to account for scan edge falloffs, and sun angle corrections to account for heating anomalies including an emissive reflector. To address errors in the V05 geolocation, the sensor roll, pitch, yaw, half cone angle, and timing offsets are reanalyzed and updated. The along-scan bias adjustment is updated in a manner consistent with recent Special Sensor Microwave Imager updates to account for variations in scene temperature. Finally, significant improvements to the SSMIS sun angle correction are made by using data from the entire mission, extending the corrections to include the higher frequency channels, and deriving a more consistent channel-to-channel correction. From V05 to V07, the geolocation adjustment is approximately 5-10 km, the earth incidence angle difference is 0-0.4°, and the average brightness temperature change is 0-2 K, but individual pixels may be up to several Kelvin difference depending on sensor and channel. The result of these updates is a significant improvement in the quality and long-term consistency of the SSMIS data that are included in the GPM V07 dataset.

Rachael A Kroodsma↗
NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GL4U: GeneLab for Colleges and Universities

GeneLab for Colleges and Universities (GL4U) will provide space biology-relevant training in bioinformatics to the next generation of scientists through direct and indirect approaches. The GeneLab (GL) team will host two annual data processing bootcamps, one for college-level students (direct) and one for college educators (indirect – Training of Trainers), in which participants learn to analyze space-relevant omics data hosted on GL. The first bootcamp took place in early June 2021 with about 30 SJSU undergraduate students and covered space biology-specific lectures and hands-on instruction using Jupyter Notebooks (JNs) for RNA sequence (RNAseq) data analysis. All training materials including the enclosed files listed below will be made publicly available on GitHub. RNAseq Bootcamp Lectures (attached in combined file): Introduction to NASA, Space Biology, GeneLab, and the Command Line: NASA_GL_CL_Intro_FINAL.pdf - DRAFT from initial submission NASA_SB_GL_CL_Intro_FULL.pdf - FINAL version presented during the bootcamp - only minor edits from the draft version RNAseq and Data Processing Overview: RNAseq_Overview_FINAL.pdf - DRAFT from initial submission RNAseq_Overview_FULL.pdf - FINAL version presented during the bootcamp - only minor edits from the draft version Overview of the Statistics Used for RNAseq Data Analysis: SJSU_Statistics_Intro_Lecture_FINAL.pdf - DRAFT from initial submission Statistics_Overview_FULL.pdf - FINAL version presented during the bootcamp - only minor edits from the draft version Completed JNs in HTML format (attached in combined file): Unix_Intro_JN_06-2021_completed.html R_Intro_JN_06-2021_completed.html RNAseq_fastq_to_counts_JN_06-2021_completed.html RNAseq_DGE_JN_06-2021_completed.html RNAseq Bootcamp Recordings (attached): GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day1_Part_1_of_5.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day1_Part_2_of_5.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day1_Part_3_of_5.mp4 *There were issues with the part 4 recording so that is not available GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day1_Part_5_of_5.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day2_Part_1_of_3.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day2_Part_2_of_3.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day2_Part_3_of_3.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day3_Part_1_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day3_Part_2_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day3_Part_3_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day3_Part_4_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day4_Part_1_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day4_Part_2_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day4_Part_3_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day4_Part_4_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day5_Part_1_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day5_Part_2_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day5_Part_3_of_4.mp4 GL4U_RNAseq_Bootcamp_June_2021_Pilot_Day5_Part_4_of_4.mp4

GeneLab↗
NASA NTRS1986

SAGE 2 satellite data set validation

The results of a validation study of data obtained by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 2 satellite experiment (SAGE 2) are given. Preliminary SAGE 2 data have been available for the period October, 1984 to May, 1985. In addition, the results of two correlative experimental measurement series have been studied in detail, as well as climatological data obtained by other techniques, including ground-based and airborne lidar. The study shows the SAGE 2 data to be of great potential value to studies of the microphyiscs of stratospheric aerosols, the chemistry of trace gases and stratospheric dynamics. A small number of unidentified errors in the current preliminary data set are described. These will be removed from the next version of the data set which is anticipated to be of archival quality.

Kent, G. S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring the Calibration of the DSCOVR EPIC Instrument’s Visible Cchannels Using MODIS and VIIRS as a Reference

The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) instrument aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite has a constant unique view of the sunlit disk of the Earth from the Lagrange-1 (L1) point nearly a million miles away from the Earth. Due to EPIC not having any on-board calibration systems, the ten spectral channels of EPIC must be inter-calibrated using vicarious on-orbit methods, such as ray-matching with well-calibrated low Earth orbiting satellites like the Aqua-MODIS and SNPP-VIIRS radiometers. The recently released EPIC version 3 L1B data has greatly enhanced the residual navigation errors found in prior versions, thereby decreasing the calibration uncertainty in the aforementioned ray-matching calibration techniques. The automated navigation correction used by these ray-matching methods for further improving the EPIC geolocation will be compared with a new navigation correction method utilizing optical flow between the EPIC and MODIS/VIIRS images. The DSCOVR satellite went into safe mode on June 27, 2019 due to an anomaly with the satellite’s attitude control system, but operations recommenced on March 2, 2020. The calibration of the EPIC instrument before it went into safe mode and after it resumed will be analyzed in order to investigate any potential calibration shifts or discontinuities caused by the spacecraft anomaly.

Conor Haney↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing HM-5 data with NAIGEM v.2015.1.315 and NAIGEM v.2.1.4

Two HM-5 units were used to measure uranium items. For each measurement, the enrichment calibration was determined. The built-in software to determine the enrichment calibration was NAIGEM version 2015.1.315. The data were later analyzed by a standalone NAIGEM, version 2.1.4, in order to study the behavior of the NAIGEM software with the HM-5 data and the relationships between various parameters in the NAIGEM code and the HM-5.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Freight Analysis Framework Version 5 (FAF5) Base Year 2017 Data Development Technical Report

The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) integrates data from a variety of sources to create a comprehensive national picture of freight movements among states and major metropolitan areas by all modes of transportation. The latest of this data series is FAF5, which is the fifth generation FAF and is benchmarked on Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 2017. Except for FAF1 that provided estimates for truck, rail, and water tonnage for calendar year 1998, later generations of FAF (FAF2 through FAF5) were built based on their benchmark year CFS data, for 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017 respectively. The FAF is produced under a partnership between Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). As a major data product of the FAF program, the FAF regional database provides a national picture of freight flows to, from, and within the United States (among regions and states), by commodity and mode for the base year, as well as for forecasts up to 30 years into the future in a 5-year interval. Additional FAF data products also include FAF network flows database, where truck movements are routed onto the national highway network, estimates of annual projections, and synchronized historical data series. This report is a technical document prepared to describe the data sources and methodologies applied in the process of building the FAF5 base-year 2017 regional database, released as FAF5.0 in February 2021. This report offers a description of the diverse data sources and modeling methods used in constructing the base year FAF5 regional database. The FAF5 base-year database is used as the base for development of forecasts and for assignment of truck flows on highway network. Similarly, the FAF5 base-year database will be used as the base to generate FAF5 annual estimates. In addition to this report, users are encouraged to refer to the FAF5 User’s Guide, which provides basic information of the data, including definitions of the data attributes, information on how to access the data and tool, as well as detailed data dictionary and code tables.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solar-to-Grid Public Data File for Utility-scale (UPV) and Distributed Photovoltaics (DPV) Generation, Capacity Credit, and Value

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) estimates hourly project-level generation data for utility-scale solar projects and hourly county-level generation data for residential and non-residential distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems in the seven organized wholesale markets and 10 additional Balancing Areas. To encourage its broader use, Berkeley Lab has made this data file public here at OEDI. The public project-level dataset is updated annually with data from the previous calendar year. For more information about the research project, including a technical report, briefing material, visualizations, and additional data, please visit the project homepage linked in this submission. A newer version of the data exists and can be found linked in the resources of this submission under "Solar-to-Grid Public Data File Updated 2021".

annual solar value↗
NASA NTRS1989

A reduced version of the NMC DERF 2 data set

The National Meterological Center (NMC) Dynamical Extended Range Forecast (DERF 2) data represents a major computational effort to better ascertain the potential for extended range forecasts and to develop a strategy for performing operational extended range forecasts using dynamical models. A major stumbling block for using this data has been the sheer volume of data that must be processed to perform even simple calculations. The product of the data reduction described is a manageable data set that fits comfortably on five magnetic tapes or on one compact disc. The document outlines the data reduction process of the second phase of DERF data. It contains the description of the fields and the resolution of both the original and final fields. In order to assist the users of this data set, maps of selected fields, using both the original truncation at rhomboidal 30 and the truncation of the final data at triangular 20, are displayed.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2000

Performance of the GEOS-3/Terra Data Assimilation System in the Northern Stratospheric Winter 1999/2000

As part of NASA's support for the Terra satellite, which became operational in January 2000, the Data Assimilation Office introduced a new version of the GEOS data assimilation system (DAS) in November 1999. This system, GEOS-3/Terra, differs from its predecessor in several ways, notably through an increase in horizontal resolution (from 2-by-2.5 degrees to 1-by-1 degree), a slightly lower upper boundary (0.1 instead of 0.01hPa) with fewer levels (48 as opposed to 70), and substantial changes to the tropospheric physics package. This paper will address the performance of the GEOS-3/Terra DAS in the stratosphere. it focusses on the analyses (produced four times daily) and the five-day forecasts (produced twice daily). These were important for the meteorological support of the SAGE-3 Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment, based in Kiruna, Northern Sweden, in the winter of 1999/2000. It is shown that the analyses of basic meteorological fields (temperature, geopotential height, and horizontal wind) are in good agreement with those from other centers. The analyses captured the cold polar vortex which persisted through most of the winter. It is shown that forecasts (up to five days) tend to have a warm bias, which is important for the prediction of polar stratospheric clouds, which are triggered by temperatures of 195K (or lower). The importance of accurate upper tropospheric forecasts in predicting the stratospheric flow is highlighted in the context of the evolution of the shape of the stratospheric polar vortex. A prominent blocking high in the Atlantic region in January was an important factor determining the shape of the distorted lower stratospheric vortex; the predictive skill of these features was strongly coupled in the GEOS-3/Terra system.

Pawson, S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Changes in the TRMM Version 7 Space/Time Averaged Level 3 Data Products Based on GPROF TMI Swath-Based Precipitation Retrievals

TRMM has three level 3 (space/time averaged) data products that aggregate level 2 TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) GPROF precipitation retrievals. These three products are TRMM 3A12, which is a monthly accumulation of 2A12 the GPROF swath retrieval product; TRMM 3B31, which is a monthly accumulation of 2A12 and 2B31 the combined retrieval product that uses both Precipitation Radar (PR) and TMI data; and 3G68 and its variants, which provide hourly retrievals for TMI, PR and combined. The 3G68 products are packaged as daily files but provide hourly information at 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg resolution globally, 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg globally, or 0.1 deg x 0.1 deg over Africa, Australia and South America. This paper will present early information of the changes in the v7 TMI GPROF level 2 retrievals that have an impact on the level 3 accumulations. This paper provides an analysis of the effect the 2A12 GPROF changes have on 3G68 products. In addition, it provides a comparison between the TRMM level 3 products that use the TMI GPROF swath retrievals.

Stocker, Erich↗
NASA NTRS2014

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗