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DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging graph clustering techniques for cyber‐physical system analysis to enhance disturbance characterisation

Abstract Cyber‐physical systems have behaviour that crosses domain boundaries during events such as planned operational changes and malicious disturbances. Traditionally, the cyber and physical systems are monitored separately and use very different toolsets and analysis paradigms. The security and privacy of these cyber‐physical systems requires improved understanding of the combined cyber‐physical system behaviour and methods for holistic analysis. Therefore, the authors propose leveraging clustering techniques on cyber‐physical data from smart grid systems to analyse differences and similarities in behaviour during cyber‐, physical‐, and cyber‐physical disturbances. Since clustering methods are commonly used in data science to examine statistical similarities in order to sort large datasets, these algorithms can assist in identifying useful relationships in cyber‐physical systems. Through this analysis, deeper insights can be shared with decision‐makers on what cyber and physical components are strongly or weakly linked, what cyber‐physical pathways are most traversed, and the criticality of certain cyber‐physical nodes or edges. This paper presents several types of clustering methods for cyber‐physical graphs of smart grid systems and their application in assessing different types of disturbances for informing cyber‐physical situational awareness. The collection of these clustering techniques provide a foundational basis for cyber‐physical graph interdependency analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing tension metrics with dark energy survey and Planck data

ABSTRACT Quantifying tensions – inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments – has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically significant tensions between two experiments or cosmological probes may indicate new physics extending beyond the standard cosmological model and need to be promptly identified. We apply several tension estimators proposed in the literature to the dark energy survey (DES) large-scale structure measurement and Planck cosmic microwave background data. We first evaluate the responsiveness of these metrics to an input tension artificially introduced between the two, using synthetic DES data. We then apply the metrics to the comparison of Planck and actual DES Year 1 data. We find that the parameter differences, Eigentension, and Suspiciousness metrics all yield similar results on both simulated and real data, while the Bayes ratio is inconsistent with the rest due to its dependence on the prior volume. Using these metrics, we calculate the tension between DES Year 1 3 × 2pt and Planck, finding the surveys to be in ∼2.3σ tension under the ΛCDM paradigm. This suite of metrics provides a toolset for robustly testing tensions in the DES Year 3 data and beyond.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards a Comparative Assessment of Data-Driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis focuses on comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model that is generated via log files from information technology systems. While this approach is helpful when there is an existing process model in an organization, it leaves the question of what to do in the absence of a complete reference process model unanswered. In this paper, we present a comparative assessment approach that combines process mining, process mapping for dimensionality reduction, and statistical analysis. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among U.S. Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities to assess process conformance among different healthcare facilities, which can help assess the standardization of care. We illustrate our approach by applying it to two clinical radiology order process models generated by two similar facilities. Our results demonstrate statistical similarities in the standardization of care among those two facilities.

Klasky, Hilda↗

DOE OSTI2026

WHONDRS 2016 Sediment Organic Matter Characterization Data from Streams across HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon

This dataset supports a broader synoptic effort to map morphological, hydrological, chemical, and biological conditions across a fifth-order mountain stream network. Samples were generated through a collaborative synoptic sampling effort in 2016. The dataset provides sediment Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) from 60 sites across the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon (https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu). Related data were collected as part of the event and were published separately in collaboration with other team members. The data are available at http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/ea6c0832885a46c3939e7bb22e48e754 and are described within https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1567-2019 (Ward et al., 2019). The hydroshare data package contains processed FTICR-MS data from the samples included in this data package. The data were processed via Formultitude (previously called Formularity; https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/Formultitude). However, we have re-processed the data using Core-MS and included it in this data package. Additional related data collected in 2025 from a similar effort can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3023310 and http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/b274c4a234bf4b12b7cb8a54a696c629. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of sample data; (2) data dictionary; (3) file-level metadata; (4); (5) coordinates; and (6) readme. The sample data subfolder contains 12 Tesla (12T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .Rmd, .py, .cal, or .json.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cohort organized learning: clustering through agreement

In this article we describe cohort organized learning (CoOL), a method for clustering data without explicit distance or similarity computations. Herein, we will describe CoOL, derive the gradients determined by expectation maximization to train the networks, show how to monitor convergence during training and evaluate the clusters after training, and discuss a series of examples and use cases. We also discuss CoOL’s limitations and future prospects on related tasks. Because CoOL uses neural networks to estimate the clusters, it can be used to cluster any data that can be made compatible and we illustrate this on vector data and images.

clustering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of a Potential DOOR Endpoint for Hospital-acquired Bacterial Pneumonia and Ventilator-associated Bacterial Pneumonia Using Six Registrational Trials for Antibacterial Drugs

Abstract Background Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an innovative approach to clinical trial design and analysis that uses an ordinal ranking system to incorporate the overall risks and benefits of a therapeutic intervention into a single measurement. Here we derived and evaluated a disease-specific DOOR endpoint for registrational trials for hospital-acquired bacterial pneumonia and ventilator-associated bacterial pneumonia (HABP/VABP). Methods Through comprehensive examination of data from nearly 4000 participants enrolled in six registrational trials for HABP/VABP submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 2005 and 2022, we derived and applied a HABP/VABP specific endpoint. We estimated the probability that a participant assigned to the study treatment arm would have a more favorable overall DOOR or component outcome than a participant assigned to comparator. Results DOOR distributions between treatment arms were similar in all trials. DOOR probability estimates ranged from 48.3% to 52.9% and were not statistically different. There were no significant differences between treatment arms in the component analyses. Although infectious complications and serious adverse events occurred more frequently in ventilated participants compared to non-ventilated participants, the types of events were similar. Conclusions Through a data-driven approach, we constructed and applied a potential DOOR endpoint for HABP/VABP trials. The inclusion of syndrome-specific events may help to better delineate and evaluate participant experiences and outcomes in future HABP/VABP trials and could help inform data collection and trial design.

Immunology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updates to the Alliance of Genome Resources central infrastructure

The Alliance of Genome Resources (Alliance) is an extensible coalition of knowledgebases focused on the genetics and genomics of intensively studied model organisms. The Alliance is organized as individual knowledge centers with strong connections to their research communities and a centralized software infrastructure, discussed here. Model organisms currently represented in the Alliance are budding yeast, Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila, zebrafish, frog, laboratory mouse, laboratory rat, and the Gene Ontology Consortium. The project is in a rapid development phase to harmonize knowledge, store it, analyze it, and present it to the community through a web portal, direct downloads, and application programming interfaces (APIs). Here, we focus on developments over the last 2 years. Specifically, we added and enhanced tools for browsing the genome (JBrowse), downloading sequences, mining complex data (AllianceMine), visualizing pathways, full-text searching of the literature (Textpresso), and sequence similarity searching (SequenceServer). We enhanced existing interactive data tables and added an interactive table of paralogs to complement our representation of orthology. To support individual model organism communities, we implemented species-specific “landing pages” and will add disease-specific portals soon; in addition, we support a common community forum implemented in Discourse software. We describe our progress toward a central persistent database to support curation, the data modeling that underpins harmonization, and progress toward a state-of-the-art literature curation system with integrated artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 VII: cosmological constraints from the full-shape modeling of clustering measurements

We present cosmological results from the measurement of clustering of galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). We adopt the full-shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum, including the effects of redshift-space distortions, in an analysis which has been thoroughly validated in a series of supporting papers as summarised in [1]. We combine the full-shape information with DESI's DR1 constraints from the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) of these tracers. In the flat ΛCDM cosmological model, DESI (FS+BAO), combined with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index, determines matter density to Ω m = 0.2962 ± 0.0095, and the amplitude of mass fluctuations to σ 8 = 0.842 ± 0.034. The addition of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data tightens these constraints to Ω m = 0.3056 ± 0.0049 and σ 8 = 0.8121 ± 0.0053, while further addition of the joint clustering and lensing analysis from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 (DESY3) data further improves these measurements, and leads to a 0.4% determination of the Hubble constant, H 0 = (68.40 ± 0.27) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI (FS+BAO) with CMB and type Ia supernovae continue to show the preference, previously found in the DESI DR1 BAO analysis, for w 0 > -1 and w a < 0 with similar levels of significance. DESI data, in combination with the CMB, improve the upper limits on the sum of the neutrino masses relative to the case when only the DR1 BAO was available, giving ∑m ν < 0.071 eV at 95% confidence. We finally constrain deviations from general relativity represented by two modified gravity parameters. DESI (FS+BAO) data alone measure the parameter that controls the clustering of massive particles, μ 0 = 0.11 +0.45 -0.54 , in agreement with the zero value predicted by general relativity. The combination of DESI with the CMB and the clustering and lensing analysis from DESY3 constrains both modified-gravity parameters, giving μ 0 = 0.04 ± 0.22 and Σ 0 = 0.044 ± 0.047, again in agreement with general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Gravity Waves in a Kilometer‐Scale Run of the IFS to AIRS Satellite Observations and ERA5

Abstract Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) impact the circulation and variability of the atmosphere. Sub‐grid scale GWs, which are too small to be resolved, are parameterized in weather and climate models. However, some models are now available at resolutions at which these waves become resolved and it is important to test whether these models do this correctly. In this study, a GW resolving run of the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), run with a 1.4 km average grid spacing (TCo7999 resolution), is compared to observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, on NASA's Aqua satellite, to test how well the model resolves GWs that AIRS can observe. In this analysis, nighttime data are used from the first 10 days of November 2018 over part of Asia and surrounding regions. The IFS run is resampled with AIRS's observational filter using two different methods for comparison. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis is also resampled as AIRS, to allow for comparison of how the high resolution IFS run resolves GWs compared to a lower resolution model that uses GW drag parametrizations. Wave properties are found in AIRS and the resampled models using a multi‐dimensional S‐Transform method. Orographic GWs can be seen in similar locations at similar times in all three data sets. However, wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes in the resampled IFS run are found to be significantly lower than in the observations. This could be a result of horizontal and vertical wavelengths in the IFS run being underestimated.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Active Learning A Neural Network Model For Gold Clusters & Bulk From Sparse First Principles Training Data

Small metal clusters are of fundamental scientific interest and of tremendous significance in catalysis. These nanoscale clusters display diverse geometries and structural motifs depending on the cluster size; a knowledge of this size-dependent structural motifs and their dynamical evolution has been of longstanding interest. Given the high computational cost of first-principles calculations, molecular modeling and atomistic simulations such as molecular dynamics (MD) has proven to be an important complementary tool to aid this understanding. Classical MD typically employ predefined functional forms which limits their ability to capture such complex size-dependent structural and dynamical transformation. Neural Network (NN) based potentials represent flexible alternatives and in principle, well-trained NN potentials can provide high level of flexibility, transferability and accuracy on-par with the reference model used for training. A major challenge, however, is that NN models are interpolative and requires large quantities (similar to 10 4 or greater) of training data to ensure that the model adequately samples the energy landscape both near and far-from-equilibrium. A highly desirable goal is minimize the number of training data, especially if the underlying reference model is first-principles based and hence expensive. In this work, we introduce an active learning (AL) scheme that trains a NN model on-the-fly with minimal amount of first-principles based training data. Our AL workflow is initiated with a sparse training dataset (similar to 1 to 5 data points) and is updated on-the-fly via a Nested Ensemble Monte Carlo scheme that iteratively queries the energy landscape in regions of failure and updates the training pool to improve the network performance. Using a representative system of gold clusters, we demonstrate that our AL workflow can train a NN with similar to 500 total reference calculations. Using an extensive DFT test set of similar to 1100 configurations, we show that our AL-NN is able to accurately predict both the DFT energies and the forces for clusters of a myriad of different sizes. Our NN predictions are within 30 meV/atom and 40 meV/angstrom of the reference DFT calculations. Moreover, our AL-NN model also adequately captures the various size-dependent structural and dynamical properties of gold clusters in excellent agreement with DFT calculations and available experiments. We finally show that our AL-NN model also captures bulk properties reasonably well, even though they were not included in the training data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parametric description of intermittent probability distribution functions in solar wind and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

ABSTRACT In this work, we find empirical evidence that the scale-dependent statistical properties of solar wind and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence can be described in terms of a family of parametric probability distribution functions (PDFs) known as Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG). Understanding these PDFs is one of the most important goals in turbulence theory, as they are inherently connected to the intermittent properties of solar wind turbulence. We investigate the properties of PDFs of Elsasser increments based on a large statistical sample from solar wind observations and high-resolution numerical simulations of MHD turbulence. In order to measure the PDFs and their corresponding properties, three experiments are presented: fast and slow solar wind for experimental data and a simulation of reduced MHD (RMHD) turbulence. Conditional statistics on a 23-yr-long sample of WIND data near 1 au and high-resolution pseudo-spectral simulation of steadily driven RMHD turbulence on a $2048^3$ mesh are used to construct scale-dependent PDFs. The empirical PDFs are fitted to NIG distributions, which depend on four free parameters. Our analysis shows that NIG distributions accurately capture the evolution of the PDFs, with scale-dependent parameters, from large scales characterized by a Gaussian distribution, turning to exponential tails within the inertial range and stretched exponentials at dissipative scales. We also show that empirically-measured NIG parameters exhibit well-defined scaling properties that are similar across the three empirical data sets, which may be indicative of universal behaviour.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification for a Multi-phase Carbon Equation of State Model

Many physics models have tunable parameters that are calibrated by matching the model output to experimental or calculated data. However, given that calibration data often contain uncertainty and that different model parameter sets might result in a very similar simulated output for a finite calibration data set, it is advantageous to provide an ensemble of parameter sets that are consistent with the calibration data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a means to generate such an ensemble in a statistically rigorous fashion. In this work, we perform UQ for a multi-phase equation of state (EOS) model for carbon containing the diamond, graphite, and liquid phases. We use a Bayesian framework for the UQ and introduce a novel strategy for including phase diagram information in the calibration. The method is highly general and accurately reproduces the calibration data without any material-specific prior knowledge of the EOS model parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Microwave Intensity and Polarization Maps of the Galactic Center

Herein we present arcminute-resolution intensity and polarization maps of the Galactic center made with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope. The maps cover a 32 deg 2 field at 98, 150, and 224 GHz with |l| ≤ 4°, |b| ≤ 2°. We combine these data with Planck observations at similar frequencies to create coadded maps with increased sensitivity at large angular scales. With the coadded maps, we are able to resolve many known features of the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) in both total intensity and polarization. We map the orientation of the plane-of-sky component of the Galactic magnetic field inferred from the polarization angle in the CMZ, finding significant changes in morphology in the three frequency bands as the underlying dominant emission mechanism changes from synchrotron to dust emission. Selected Galactic center sources, including Sgr A*, the Brick molecular cloud (G0.253+0.016), the Mouse pulsar wind nebula (G359.23-0.82), and the Tornado supernova remnant candidate (G357.7-0.1), are examined in detail. These data illustrate the potential for leveraging ground-based cosmic microwave background polarization experiments for Galactic science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

In situ Synchrotron X‐ray Metrology Boosted by Automated Data Analysis for Real‐time Monitoring of Cathode Calcination

Abstract Synchrotron X‐ray‐based in situ metrology is advantageous for monitoring the synthesis of battery materials, offering high throughput, high spatial and temporal resolution, and chemical sensitivity. However, the rapid generation of massive data poses a challenge to on‐site, on‐the‐fly analysis needed for real‐time process monitoring. Here, a weighted lagged cross‐correlation (WLCC) similarity approach is presented for automated data analysis, which merges with in situ synchrotron X‐ray diffraction metrology to monitor the calcination process of the archetypal nickel‐based cathode, LiNiO 2 . The WLCC approach, incorporating variables that account for peak shifts and width changes associated with structural transformations, enables rapid extraction of phase progression within 10 seconds from tens of diffraction patterns. Details are captured, from initial precursors to intermediates and the final layered LiNiO 2 , providing information for agile on‐site adjustments during experiments and complementing post hoc diffraction analysis by offering insights into early‐stage phase nucleation and growth. Expanding this data‐powered platform paves the way for real time calcination process monitoring and control, which is pivotal to quality control in battery cathode manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extended Bandwidth Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry Cable Test for Thermal Aging, Low Resistance Fault, and Water Detection

In 2022, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) used the Accelerated and Real-Time Environmental Nodal Assessment (ARENA) cable and motor test bed to characterize spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) and compare the responses of an SSTDR instrument to those of a frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) instrument. Results showed both techniques could detect and locate cable anomalies such as phase-to-phase low resistance and shorts, thermal insulation damage, mechanical insulation damage, and the presence or absence of water in some conditions. The SSTDR tests used a commercial instrument provided by LiveWire Innovations Inc. This commercial instrument performed tests at 6, 12, 24, and 48 MHz bandwidth. The results of these tests were compared to FDR tests where bandwidths could be extended up to 1.3 GHz, although the best responses for cable tests were from 100 to 500 MHz. Lower bandwidth signals can propagate better along the cable while higher bandwidths have higher resolution for impedance change reflections allowing more precise indication of location and separation of anomalies. The 2022 research found that FDR responses were clearer than SSTDR and speculated that a higher bandwidth SSTDR could more successfully detect and locate cable anomalies. One advantage of the SSTDR system investigated was that it was designed for energized online use up to 1,000 volts, which may be a significant advantage for nuclear power plant use. The LiveWire SSTDR instrument is an established product in the rail and aircraft industry and updating the SSTDR hardware parameters is difficult to justify without more conclusive testing. Therefore, a software adjustable laboratory SSTDR instrument was developed by PNNL and was used to test extended bandwidth SSTDR cable tests. Within the ARENA test bed, 42 cable conditions were tested with the PNNL SSTDR, FDR, and the LiveWire SSTDR—each operating at four different bandwidths. Observations and conclusions regarding the relative performance of the three instruments over different bandwidths are note below. Responses of the PNNL SSTDR (at 50 MHz) and the LiveWire SSTDR (at 48 MHz) were similar. The PNNL SSTDR higher frequency bandwidths behaved as expected showing sharper peaks and higher noise. This validated the PNNL SSTDR as a reasonable implementation of the SSTDR technology. Lower bandwidth SSTDR responses (particularly 6 and 12 MHz) may have increased value for use within longer cables but were not particularly effective at identifying anomalous cable behavior in the 100 ft cables tested here. The higher bandwidths of the PNNL SSTDR (50, 100, 200, and 400 MHz) did not provide substantially clearer cable reflectometry responses, but having the higher frequency responses available did add to the cable test evaluation. Strong responses to shorts and low impedance faults between phases were particularly evident in the higher bandwidth PNNL SSTDR and the FDR data. Measurements were repeatable, with similar responses obtained from a thermally aged cable for tests taken a month apart. Signal noise was affected in the unshielded cable by the local in-tray cable arrangement including proximity to metal edges and rungs of the cable tray. Foam isolation of the cable from the tray metal reduced in both FDR and SSTDR responses. Cable condition monitoring in nuclear power plants will likely benefit from both more informative off-line testing methods and from the development of on-line methods for continuous monitoring of cables in use. The LWRS-funded ARENA test bed was a valuable resource for this development and direct comparison of nuclear electrical cable condition monitoring technologies. Test results are targeted to guide industry advancement of testing and monitoring tools for cable aging management.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the theory-data tension in neutrino-induced charged pion production: the effect of final-state nucleon distortion

Pion production on nuclei constitutes a significant part of the total cross section in experiments involving few-GeV neutrinos. Combined analyses of data on deuterium and heavier nuclei points to tensions between the bubble chamber data and the data of the MINER$\nu$A experiment, which are often ascribed to unspecified nuclear effects. To understand the origin of these tensions, a microscopic quantum mechanical framework is needed to compute nuclear matrix elements. We use the local approximation to the relativistic distorted wave impulse approximation (RDWIA) to assess the role of final-state nucleon distortion. To perform this comparison under conditions relevant to neutrino experiments, we compute cross sections for the MINER$\nu$A and T2K charged pion production datasets. The inclusion of nucleon distortion leads to a reduction of the cross section up to 10%, but to no significant change in shape of the flux-averaged cross sections. Results with and without distortion compare favorably to experimental data, with the exception of the low-$Q^2$ MINER$\nu$A $\pi^+$ data. We point out that hydrogen target data from BEBC is also overpredicted at low-$Q^2$, and that the discrepancy is similar in shape and magnitude to what is found in comparison to MINER$\nu$A data. Including nucleon distortion alone cannot explain the overprediction of low-$Q^2$ cross sections measured by MINER$\nu$A. The similar overprediction of BEBC data on hydrogen means that it is impossible to ascribe this discrepancy solely to a nuclear effect. Axial couplings and their $Q^2$ dependence should ideally be derived from more precise data on hydrogen and deuterium.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report summarizes installed prices and other trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. This report is now being published on a biannual cycle. In 2020, Berkeley Lab has released a more limited Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update, which consists of the same data otherwise published in Tracking the Sun report. The update includes data on more than 1.9 million systems installed through 2019, covering 82% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through that timeframe.As in prior years, the data update focuses to a large degree on installed prices reported for distributed PV projects, describing both historical trends and variability in pricing across projects.With respect to the historical price trajectory, national median installed prices fell, from 2018 to 2019, by roughly 1% for residential systems, remained essentially flat for small non-residential systems, and fell by 4% for large non-residential systems. Across all three customer segments, these are the slowest annual percentage declines since 2006-2008.Pricing continues to vary widely across individual projects, reflecting, among other things, differences in system sizing and design, installer-level pricing strategies, and local market conditions. For example, among residential systems installed in 2019, the lowest 20% were priced below $3.1/W, while the highest 20% were above $4.5/W. The distributions for non-residential systems exhibit similarly wide spreads.In addition to data on installed prices, the data update also covers a broad range of trends related to distributed PV system design, including: system sizing, module efficiency, module-level power electronics, inverter-loading ratios, solar+storage installations, mounting configuration, panel orientation, third-party ownership, and customer segmentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗