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At least 325 records · Page 18

Detection of local-scale changes in greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments using micrometeorological methods and comparison to a high-resolution inventory

We used the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) flux-variance relationship to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from high-precision mole fraction measurements at 3 instrumented urban communication towers over several years, demonstrating the ability of this method to detect and quantify changes in emissions. Depending on data availability, we used carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements and/or tracer ratios to estimate fluxes at 1 urban site (Site 3) and 1 suburban site (Site 7) in Indianapolis, IN, USA, and 1 urban site (COM) in Los Angeles, CA, USA. We also compared the estimated fluxes of CO 2 from fossil fuel sources (CO 2 ff) at Sites 3 and 7 and the total CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 to 20 m, hourly resolution subdomains of the high-resolution CO 2 emissions inventory, Hestia, for the year 2020, introducing a new way to evaluate emissions inventories at small spatial and temporal scales. Using the flux-variance relationship, we detected and quantified abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 and COM in April 2020, coinciding with the stay-at-home order due to COVID-19 pandemic, as well as abrupt decreases in CO and CO 2 fluxes at Site 3 in July 2018 coinciding with a highway closure next to the site. The Hestia emissions inventory detected a decrease in emissions in April 2020 at Sites 3 and 7, but this decrease differed in magnitude from those detected in the atmospheric estimates. Seasonal trends in emissions are similar between Hestia and the atmospheric estimates at Site 7. We use differences in seasonal and spatial trends between the flux estimation methods to identify potential sources of uncertainty in both the atmospheric and inventory methods. The results from this study show that the flux-variance estimation method is a useful tool to monitor local-scale emissions and evaluate high-resolution emissions inventories.

Carbon dioxide↗

Improvement of Quantification in Non-Destructive Characterization of Radioactive Waste Packages -Introduction to the Ideas of a Currently Started Project - 20197

For the characterization of radioactive waste packages (e.g. 200-L drums) with inhomogeneous activity and density distributions preferably non-destructive methods like segmented gamma scanning and transmission measurements are applied. While the first is used for identification of the radioactive inventory, both are necessary for a reliable activity quantification. Although at nuclear facilities, segmented gamma scanner are state-of-the-art and are mostly equipped with a vertically moveable transmission source the combining of this data and further a-priori information improving accuracy in data estimation giving realistic, reliable and traceable uncertainty estimations are improvable. This challenge is tackled by a R and D project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The boundary conditions for this project are (i) taking into account the typical instrumentation available at nuclear facilities, (ii) minimize the overall measurement time and (iii) combining data from emission and transmission measurements by Bayesian methods. For the R and D project, being still in its initial stage, the basic ideas, the data used for evaluation and the result of a preliminary investigation demonstrating the proof of principle are presented. Additionally, some first aspects on spatial resolution in emission and transmission measurements are addressed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NREL Stratus - Enabling Workflows to Fuse Data Streams, Modeling, Simulation, and Machine Learning

Integrating cloud services into advanced computing facilities provides significant new capabilities over focusing solely on traditional high performance computing (HPC) workloads. This brings complementary capabilities as well as enabling new focused roles for HPC. They are especially potent for workflows that fuse data streams, modeling and simulation ('modsim') and machine learning. A key challenge to adopting a hybrid edge-cloud-HPC model is to align optimal capability, data, and user intent on the right resources for each step in a workflow.?The NREL Stratus service provides a basis for this: Stratus layers capabilities needed to make?cloud services accessible to a lab-based scientific community on commercial offerings, and; currently supports upwards of 200 projects ranging from IOT integration to traditional modeling and simulation. This provides a real-world inventory of scientific workflow elements. A growing knowledge base enables placing these elements appropriately between the edge, cloud, and traditional HPC. This paper outlines a vision via reference architecture and the application of that architecture in a typical workflow highlighting multiple components: sensor data intake, cleaning and transforming (edge/cloud suitable); generation of synthetic data through modsim, computationally heavy ML training and hyperparameter optimization (HPC suitable), and; inference and deployment (cloud ideal). Every step in such a workflow involves a cost-benefit analysis regarding the data movement, computational efficiency, availability, latency, and resource capabilities. The reference architecture and examples outlined allow for understanding new opportunities in the context of emerging workflows that combine IOT, cloud, and HPC to bolster scientific productivity.

AI↗

28 NREL Stratus - Enabling Workflows to Fuse Data Streams, Modeling, Simulation, and Machine Learning: Preprint

Integrating cloud services into advanced computing facilities provides significant new capabilities over focusing solely on traditional high performance computing (HPC) workloads. This brings complementary capabilities as well as enabling new focused roles for HPC. They are especially potent for workflows that fuse data streams, modeling and simulation ('modsim') and machine learning. A key challenge to adopting a hybrid edge-cloud-HPC model is to align optimal capability, data, and user intent on the right resources for each step in a workflow.?The NREL Stratus service provides a basis for this: Stratus layers capabilities needed to make?cloud services accessible to a lab-based scientific community on commercial offerings, and; currently supports upwards of 200 projects ranging from IOT integration to traditional modeling and simulation. This provides a real-world inventory of scientific workflow elements. A growing knowledge base enables placing these elements appropriately between the edge, cloud, and traditional HPC. This paper outlines a vision via reference architecture and the application of that architecture in a typical workflow highlighting multiple components: sensor data intake, cleaning and transforming (edge/cloud suitable); generation of synthetic data through modsim, computationally heavy ML training and hyperparameter optimization (HPC suitable), and; inference and deployment (cloud ideal). Every step in such a workflow involves a cost-benefit analysis regarding the data movement, computational efficiency, availability, latency, and resource capabilities. The reference architecture and examples outlined allow for understanding new opportunities in the context of emerging workflows that combine IOT, cloud, and HPC to bolster scientific productivity.

AI↗

Stable Methane Isotopologues From Northern Lakes Suggest That Ebullition Is Dominated by Sub‐Lake Scale Processes

Abstract Stable isotopes have emerged as popular study targets when investigating emission of methane (CH 4 ) from lakes. Yet little is known on how isotopic patterns conform to variations in emission magnitudes—a highly relevant question. Here, we present a large multiyear data set on stable isotopes of CH 4 ebullition (bubbling) from three small adjacent subarctic lakes. The δ 13 C‐CH 4 and δD‐CH 4 range from −78.4‰ to −53.1‰ and from −369.8‰ to −218.8‰, respectively, and vary greatly among the lakes. The signatures suggest dominant hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, particularly in the deep zones, but there are also signals of seemingly acetoclastic production in some high fluxing shallow areas, possibly fueled by in situ vegetation, but in‐sediment anaerobic CH 4 oxidation cannot be ruled out as an alternative cause. The observed patterns, however, are not consistent across the lakes. Neither do they correspond to the spatiotemporal variations in the measured bubble CH 4 fluxes. Patterns of acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic production plus oxidation demonstrate that gains and losses of sediment CH 4 are dominated by sub‐lake scale processes. The δD‐CH 4 in the bubbles was significantly different depending on measurement month, likely due to evaporation effects. On a larger scale, our isotopic data, combined with those from other lakes, show a significant difference in bubble δD‐CH 4 between postglacial and thermokarst lakes, an important result for emission inventories. Although this characteristic theoretically assists in source partitioning studies, most hypothetical future shifts in δD‐CH 4 due to high‐latitude lake area or production pathway are too small to lead to atmospheric changes detectable with current technology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technology Development for Dry Storage of Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel - 20490

A candidate disposition pathway for the > 13 MTHM of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF), owned and managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, is the drying and placement of the SNF into sealed-canister dry storage, with the ASNF-in- canisters 'road-ready' for transportation to and final direct disposal in a repository waste package. Technical information gaps in fuel drying, and fuel dry storage behavior, have previously challenged the declaration of technology readiness for drying and placement of this fuel into the DOE Standard Canister design for > 50 years of safe dry storage. The principal technical information gaps included: i) characterization and thermal dehydration behavior of aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films attendant on the cladding due to film formation during reactor operation and during post-discharge up to long-term wet storage histories; and ii) G-value data to enable estimation of the radiolytic gas generation from the cladding with its (oxy)hydroxide films. Thus, the oxide films on the ASNF challenged the safety of a sealed storage canister with thermal and radiolytic decomposition of the waters on the films that can lead to corrosion, pressurization, and flammability issues. These gaps in the technical information base have largely been closed. This paper discusses the investigations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the Savannah River National laboratory (SRNL), and outlines the pending technology development work for input to an engineering design to enable a road-ready dry storage system for ASNF. The ASNF inventory considered for road-ready dry storage is stored at the Savannah River Site (SRS) and at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC) at the INL. The ASNF inventory in the SRS L Basin is from foreign and domestic research reactors (FRR and DRR), and is diverse in terms of design, irradiation, and post-reactor-discharge storage conditions; these factors yield a range of characteristics of cladding oxide films on ASNF. Mixed aluminum (oxy)hydroxide (boehmite and bayerite/gibbsite) films, non-uniform in thicknesses up to a maximum local thickness bounded by 25 μm, were observed on ASNF materials removed from wet storage in the L Basin and in non-sealed dry storage at the SRS following reactor service and a long-term (up to 40+ years) interim storage history. The ASNF inventory at INTEC, in both wet and vented dry storage, is predominantly from the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), but it also includes DRR and FRR fuel. To address a profound behavior of these films, radiolysis testing of aluminum specimens with mixed type boehmite/bayerite oxide films was performed to develop basic data on G-values for production of radiolytic hydrogen under dry storage conditions with nominal relative humidity, temperature, and cover gas. Modeling and simulation of canister internal environments with postulated inventories of oxide films provides estimation of the evolution of the conditions of the canister loaded with ASNF. Simultaneous Thermal Analysis (TGA/DSC) of hydrated oxide powders, and laboratory-scale aluminum specimens with a bayerite film (∼10 μm) using TGA methods, inform drying time/temperature conditions to be used for the ASNF. A demonstration project is recommended for Verification and Validation of the drying and storage of the ASNF. Remaining major tasks leading up to the hot demonstration include scale-up radiolysis testing and scale-up drying testing. Engineering design with the information from the technology program will establish the safety basis and enable long-term (> 50 years) dry storage compatibility with ASNF in the DOE Standard Canister pending its transportation to and disposal in a repository. This full capability would show the ASNF-in-canister storage system to be road-ready. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluation of Nominal Energy Storage at Existing Hydropower Reservoirs in the US

Long-term planning and operation of hydropower reservoirs require an understanding of both water and energy storage. As energy storage needs of the evolving grid increase, we must account for the water and energy storage potential of these reservoirs. Given the limitations of current data on existing hydropower, we compile statistics related to storage volume and hydraulic head from publicly available data sets and examine differences in descriptions of US hydropower storage. Assembled characteristics are used to calculate nominal energy storage capacity, a simple measure of potential to generate power from a given volume of water, not factoring in detailed constraints. Inventory-based estimates of energy storage are calculated at 2,075 dams, which helps put the potential for US hydropower to support energy storage in context with similar evaluations in other regions and with other energy storage technologies. The national energy storage capacity ranges between 34.5 and 45.1 TWh depending on the information used, with 52% of energy storage located at the 10 largest reservoirs in the US. Energy storage capacities are also calculated at 236 dams with historical volume and elevation data. Finally, reservoir inflows provide context for the storage volumes and sensitivities to hydrologic variability. Larger reservoirs with greater storage volume to inflow ratios are concentrated in the Western US, but the majority of hydropower reservoirs store less than the annual inflow. We address several infrastructure and water resource informatics challenges and highlight remaining issues, including representing seasonal or shorter variability in water volumes and representing connected hydropower facilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Integrating high resolution drone imagery and forest inventory to distinguish canopy and understory trees and quantify their contributions to forest structure and dynamics

Tree growth and survival differ strongly between canopy trees (those directly exposed to overhead light), and understory trees. However, the structural complexity of many tropical forests makes it difficult to determine canopy positions. The integration of remote sensing and ground-based data enables this determination and measurements of how canopy and understory trees differ in structure and dynamics. Here we analyzed 2 cm resolution RGB imagery collected by a Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), also known as drone, together with two decades of bi-annual tree censuses for 2 ha of old growth forest in the Central Amazon. We delineated all crowns visible in the imagery and linked each crown to a tagged stem through field work. Canopy trees constituted 40% of the 1244 inventoried trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) > 10 cm, and accounted for ~70% of aboveground carbon stocks and wood productivity. The probability of being in the canopy increased logistically with tree diameter, passing through 50% at 23.5 cm DBH. Diameter growth was on average twice as large in canopy trees as in understory trees. Growth rates were unrelated to diameter in canopy trees and positively related to diameter in understory trees, consistent with the idea that light availability increases with diameter in the understory but not the canopy. The whole stand size distribution was best fit by a Weibull distribution, whereas the separate size distributions of understory trees or canopy trees > 25 cm DBH were equally well fit by exponential and Weibull distributions, consistent with mechanistic forest models. The identification and field mapping of crowns seen in a high resolution orthomosaic revealed new patterns in the structure and dynamics of trees of canopy vs. understory at this site, demonstrating the value of traditional tree censuses with drone remote sensing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Carbon Budget 2021

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗

Estimation of the time for steam generator trip due to cyber intrusions

The time required to trip a pressurized water reactor (PWR) by inserting malicious signals into its steam generator (SG) control system has been studied using the Generic PWR (GPWR) Simulator. A semi-analytical model is developed to approximately reproduce the simulator response and understand the dynamics of the control unit. A series of two proportional-integral controllers determines control action according to preset constants, the readings from the feedwater level sensor, and those from feedwater and steam flowrate transmitters. It is observed that the most important factor that determines whether a trip will occur is how much additional water is added to or withheld from the SG over time compared to normal operating conditions. In order to determine the effects of control action on the SG, changes in mass inventory are considered. This approach models the SG water level as a function of mass inventory and has a backward temporal memory. A Python interface is developed for the GPWR framework to automatically simulate different spoofing scenarios and post-process the related data. We observe that the trip times predominantly depend on flow mismatch and/or level errors. Controller parameters, including the integral time and gain constants, either speed up or slow down the rate of progression to a trip setpoint but do not cause a trip by themselves. The reactor can trip on a high-level signal when the reading crosses above 78%, increased from its reference level of 57%, or a low-level reading when it is below 25%. The present results show roughly how long the operators would have to respond to an attack, given a specific set of spoofing signals within the issue space analyzed. Furthermore, we have generated a simple surface by fitting a combination of exponential functions to the data obtained from the GPWR Simulator. In general, trips on a low level have been observed to occur faster than those on a high level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Fungal community composition predicts forest carbon storage at a continental scale

Forest soils harbor hyper-diverse microbial communities which fundamentally regulate carbon and nutrient cycling across the globe. Directly testing hypotheses on how microbiome diversity is linked to forest carbon storage has been difficult, due to a lack of paired data on microbiome diversity and in situ observations of forest carbon accumulation and storage. Here, we investigated the relationship between soil microbiomes and forest carbon across 238 forest inventory plots spanning 15 European countries. We show that the composition and diversity of fungal, but not bacterial, species is tightly coupled to both forest biotic conditions and a seven-fold variation in tree growth rates and biomass carbon stocks when controlling for the effects of dominant tree type, climate, and other environmental factors. This linkage is particularly strong for symbiotic endophytic and ectomycorrhizal fungi known to directly facilitate tree growth. Since tree growth rates in this system are closely and positively correlated with belowground soil carbon stocks, we conclude that fungal composition is a strong predictor of overall forest carbon storage across the European continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signature Analysis Utilizing a Dynamic Molten Salt Reactor Model for MC&A

Moving from traditional fixed fuel nuclear reactor systems to a mobile, dynamic fuel system that has dissolved special nuclear material in a molten salt is a paradigm shift in several respects. One major consideration is how to develop effective nuclear material controls and accounting for these novel reactor systems. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment is one example of a critical molten salt system and provided a significant reference library based on the documented effort. But it was low thermal power that was not intended to reflect a commercial scale electricity production design. Therefore, to facilitate and assist vendors with domestic licensing considerations, research is underway to identify methods that could be used for domestic safeguards approaches for these novel reactor systems. This research presents the results of a signature analysis of data generated from three simulated scenarios using the molten salt demonstration reactor model defined in the Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Modules. Each scenario provides 1 hour isotope inventories over a 180 day period. The scenarios investigated provide test cases to examine if direct gamma-ray spectroscopy of the fuel can be used to identify changes comparing a base case (no reactivity control and fixed fission contribution) to an insertion of reactivity (10 pcm no change in fission composition) and a change in fission composition. The analysis demonstrates that monitoring the total count rate in a highly collimated high-resolution photon energy spectrum is sensitive to perturbations imposed into the reactor model. The total photon count rate changes ≈2% for the fission composition change and ≈4.5% for the reactivity insertion compared to the base case. However, both scenarios show an increase in the total photon count rate. The total photon count rate can be used to identify changes due to power (number of fissions) but not due to a change in the material undergoing fission. To distinguish between the two cases of increased power, the photon spectrum would require an intensive analysis technique. A photon peak count rate ratio analysis could be used to identify changes in the fissile material fission generation in the core through identification of a static peak that shows little variation to the source of fission and a highly varying peak. The photon peak strength will ultimately be determined by the isotope’s fission yield. A preliminary analysis investigating the coupling of the isotope’s fission yield and its concentration in the fuel salt derived from the modeling has been performed. A ratio analysis of the photon peak count rates of 140 La to 99 Mo demonstrated that the reactivity insertion creates a distinct difference in the ratio compared to the fission composition change scenario.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Mixing Cell Model: A One-Dimensional Numerical Model for Assessment of Water Flow and Contaminant Transport in the Unsaturated Zone

This report describes the Mixing Cell Model code, a one dimensional model for water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated zone under steady state or transient flow conditions. The model is based on the principles and assumptions underlying mixing-cell model formulations. The unsaturated zone is discretized into a series of independent mixing cells. Each cell may have unique hydrologic, lithologic, and sorptive properties. Ordinary differential equations describe the material (water and solute) balance within each cell. Water-flow equations are derived from the continuity equation, assuming that unit gradient conditions exist at all times in each cell. Pressure gradients are considered implicitly through model discretization. Unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and moisture contents are determined by the material specific moisture-characteristic curves. Solute-transport processes include explicit treatment of advective processes, first order chain decay, and linear sorption reactions. Dispersion is addressed through implicit and explicit dispersion. Implicit dispersion is an inherent feature of all mixing-cell models and originates from the formulation of the problem in terms of mass balance around fully mixed volume elements. Expressions are provided that relate implicit dispersion to the physical dispersion of the system. Two FORTRAN codes were developed to solve the water flow and solute-transport equations: (1) the Mixing Cell Model for Flow (MCMF) solves transient water-flow problems and (2) the Mixing Cell Model for Transport (MCMT) solves the solute-transport problem. The transient water-flow problem is typically solved first by estimating the water flux through each cell in the model domain as a function of time using the MCMF code. These data are stored in either ASCII or binary files that are later read by the solute transport code (MCMT). Code output includes solute pore water concentrations, water and solute inventories in each cell and at each specified output time, and water and solute fluxes through each cell and specified output time. Computer run times for coupled transient water flow and solute transport were typically several seconds on a 2 GHz Intel Pentium IV desktop computer. The model was benchmarked against analytical solutions and finite element approximations to the partial differential equations (PDE) describing unsaturated flow and transport. Differences between the maximum solute flux estimated by the mixing cell model and the PDE models were typically less than two percent. This revision includes an option for a fixed concentration lower boundary condition for diffusive fluxes for versions 020321 and later.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography Inversion of 2005 BC Cribs and Trenches Datasets

Hydrogeophysics, Inc. (HGI) conducted an electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) dataset at the BC Cribs and Trenches site, located in the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. The 20 trenches and 6 cribs received large volumes of liquid inorganic waste in the 1950s, resulting in a large inventory of contaminants in the vadose zone. The objective of the ERT survey was to map plume extents resulting from the legacy discharges. The HGI interpretation of the resistivity data was performed using geometric inversion to interpolate 2D lines into a 3D image. To demonstrate a newly developed geophysical code capability (E4D), the resistivity data were re-processed to fit a full 3D model of the bulk electrical conductivity. This proof-of-concept model inversion was executed in calendar year 2011, as the large dataset was well-suited for the use of high-performance computing. The 3D re-processing of the BC Cribs and Trenches ERT data conducted in 2011 resolved the true bulk electrical conductivity. This means that all of the resistivity data were fit to a single model of the bulk electrical conductivity, with true horizontal and vertical dimensions. This differed from the HGI data interpretation approach that used geometric inversion to process 2D lines independently, which were then interpolated into a 3D image. Both the full 3D re-processing and the 2D interpolation to a 3D image demonstrated a higher electrical conductivity observed immediately beneath the trenches and cribs. The electrical conductivity is strongly correlated with nitrate concentrations, indicating the presence of nitrate and other co-located contaminants.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Better Climate Challenge: Greenhouse Gas Reporting Guidance

Better Climate Challenge Greenhouse Gas Reporting Guidance document can help you define the scope of your commitment, set your goal and base year, and annually report progress toward your goal for Better Climate Challenge Program. You will share GHG emissions and energy data across your building/plant portfolio with DOE, including owned and operated fleets. This document provides instructional guidance on how to quantify GHG emissions across your organization. Establishing an accurate GHG inventory is a critical first step to developing a plan to reduce emissions across your organization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗