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SU-E-T-206: Improving Radiotherapy Toxicity Based On Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Purpose/Objective(s): The aim of this study is to build the estimator of toxicity using artificial neural network (ANN) for head and neck cancer patients Materials/Methods: An ANN can combine variables into a predictive model during training and considered all possible correlations of variables. We constructed an ANN based on the data from 73 patients with advanced H and N cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy at our institution. For the toxicity estimator we defined input data including age, sex, site, stage, pathology, status of chemo, technique of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), length of treatment, dose of EBRT, status of post operation, length of follow-up, the status of local recurrences and distant metastasis. These data were digitized based on the significance and fed to the ANN as input nodes. We used 20 hidden nodes (for the 13 input nodes) to take care of the correlations of input nodes. For training ANN, we divided data into three subsets such as training set, validation set and test set. Finally, we built the estimator for the toxicity from ANN output. Results: We used 13 input variables including the status of local recurrences and distant metastasis and 20 hidden nodes for correlations. 59 patients for training set, 7 patients for validation set and 7 patients for test set and fed the inputs to Matlab neural network fitting tool. We trained the data within 15% of errors of outcome. In the end we have the toxicity estimation with 74% of accuracy. Conclusion: We proved in principle that ANN can be a very useful tool for predicting the RT outcomes for high risk H and N patients. Currently we are improving the results using cross validation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Deep learning applications in visual data for benign and malignant hematologic conditions: a systematic review and visual glossary

Deep learning (DL) is a subdomain of artificial intelligence algorithms capable of automatically evaluating subtle graphical features to make highly accurate predictions, which was recently popularized in multiple imaging-related tasks. Because of its capabilities to analyze medical imaging such as radiology scans and digitized pathology specimens, DL has significant clinical potential as a diagnostic or prognostic tool. Coupled with rapidly increasing quantities of digital medical data, numerous novel research questions and clinical applications of DL within medicine have already been explored. Similarly, DL research and applications within hematology are rapidly emerging, although these are still largely in their infancy. Given the exponential rise of DL research for hematologic conditions, it is essential for the practising hematologist to be familiar with the broad concepts and pitfalls related to these new computational techniques. This narrative review provides a visual glossary for key deep learning principles, as well as a systematic review of published investigations within malignant and non-malignant hematologic conditions, organized by the different phases of clinical care. In order to assist the unfamiliar reader, this review highlights key portions of current literature and summarizes important considerations for the critical understanding of deep learning development and implementations in clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Free-moving Quantitative Gamma-ray Imaging

The ability to map and estimate the activity of radiological source distributions in unknown three-dimensional environments has applications in the prevention and response to radiological accidents or threats as well as the enforcement and verification of international nuclear non-proliferation agreements. Such a capability requires well-characterized detector response functions, accurate time-dependent detector position and orientation data, a digitized representation of the surrounding 3D environment, and appropriate image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification methods. We have previously demonstrated 3D mapping of gamma-ray emitters with free-moving detector systems on a relative intensity scale using a technique called Scene Data Fusion (SDF). Here we characterize the detector response of a multi-element gamma-ray imaging system using experimentally benchmarked Monte Carlo simulations and perform 3D mapping on an absolute intensity scale. We present experimental reconstruction results from hand-carried and airborne measurements with point-like and distributed sources in known configurations, demonstrating quantitative SDF in complex 3D environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Determining the Effectiveness of Incorporating Geographic Information Into Vehicle Performance Algorithms

This thesis presents a research study using one year of driving data obtained from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) located in Sacramento and San Francisco, California to determine the effectiveness of incorporating geographic information into vehicle performance algorithms. Sacramento and San Francisco were chosen because of the availability of high resolution (1/9 arc second) digital elevation data. First, I present a method for obtaining instantaneous road slope, given a latitude and longitude, and introduce its use into common driving intensity algorithms. I show that for trips characterized by >40m of net elevation change (from key on to key off), the use of instantaneous road slope significantly changes the results of driving intensity calculations. For trips exhibiting elevation loss, algorithms ignoring road slope overestimated driving intensity by as much as 211 Wh/mile, while for trips exhibiting elevation gain these algorithms underestimated driving intensity by as much as 333 Wh/mile. Second, I describe and test an algorithm that incorporates vehicle route type into computations of city and highway fuel economy. Route type was determined by intersecting trip GPS points with ESRI StreetMap road types and assigning each trip as either city or highway route type according to whichever road type comprised the largest distance traveled. The fuel economy results produced by the geographic classification were compared to the fuel economy results produced by algorithms that assign route type based on average speed or driving style. Most results were within 1 mile per gallon ({approx}3%) of one another; the largest difference was 1.4 miles per gallon for charge depleting highway trips. The methods for acquiring and using geographic data introduced in this thesis will enable other vehicle technology researchers to incorporate geographic data into their research problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cyber security using multi-threaded architecture data diode at the NBSR - 114

Ongoing upgrades for the control room of the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR) located at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) require the ability to collect sensor data from the secured reactor network and transfer to the outside network for trend analysis, while maintaining the security of the reactor network. To accomplish this, a data diode was created to provide a physical barrier that prevents any outside data from reaching the secured reactor network. The hardware of the data diode consists of two embedded computers, running Unix based operating systems, connected by three DB-9 serial cables. The serial cables have been modified so that only two wires, a ground and a transmission line, provide connection between the computers. The data diode relies on a multi-threaded architecture to collect and simultaneously transfer data over three serial connections. A software program, implemented in Java, has been written to request data from the digital recorders installed to monitor the NBSR process instrumentation and transfer that data across the serial connections. The data diode can collect over 1200 data points from multiple digital recorders each second. The collected data can then be stored in a relational database for later analysis. The source codes for the software are available open source on GitHub. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

TH-A-207B-00: Shear-Wave Imaging and a QIBA US Biomarker Update

Imaging of tissue elastic properties is a relatively new and powerful approach to one of the oldest and most important diagnostic tools. Imaging of shear wave speed with ultrasound is has been added to most high-end ultrasound systems. Understanding this exciting imaging mode aiding its most effective use in medicine can be a rewarding effort for medical physicists and other medical imaging and treatment professionals. Assuring consistent, quantitative measurements across the many ultrasound systems in a typical imaging department will constitute a major step toward realizing the great potential of this technique and other quantitative imaging. This session will target these two goals with two presentations. A. Basics and Current Implementations of Ultrasound Imaging of Shear Wave Speed and Elasticity - Shigao Chen, Ph.D. Learning objectives-To understand: Introduction: Importance of tissue elasticity measurement Strain vs. shear wave elastography (SWE), beneficial features of SWE The link between shear wave speed and material properties, influence of viscosity Generation of shear waves External vibration (Fibroscan) ultrasound radiation force Point push Supersonic push (Aixplorer) Comb push (GE Logiq E9) Detection of shear waves Motion detection from pulse-echo ultrasound Importance of frame rate for shear wave imaging Plane wave imaging detection How to achieve high effective frame rate using line-by-line scanners Shear wave speed calculation Time to peak Random sample consensus (RANSAC) Cross correlation Sources of bias and variation in SWE Tissue viscosity Transducer compression or internal pressure of organ Reflection of shear waves at boundaries B. Elasticity Imaging System Biomarker Qualification and User Testing of Systems – Brian Garra, M.D. Learning objectives-To understand: Goals Review the need for quantitative medical imaging Provide examples of quantitative imaging biomarkers Acquaint the participant with the purpose of the RSNA Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance and the need for such an organization Review the QIBA process for creating a quantitative biomarker Summarize steps needed to verify adherence of site, operators, and imaging systems to a QIBA profile Underlying Premise and Assumptions Objective, quantifiable results are needed to enhance the value of diagnostic imaging in clinical practice Reasons for quantification Evidence based medicine requires objective, not subjective observer data Computerized decision support tools (eg CAD) generally require quantitative input. Quantitative, reproducible measures are more easily used to develop personalized molecular medical diagnostic and treatment systems What is quantitative imaging? Definition from Imaging Metrology Workshop The Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance Formation 2008 Mission Structure Example Imaging Biomarkers Being Explored Biomarker Selection Groundwork Draft Protocol for imaging and data evaluation QIBA Profile Drafting Equipment and Site Validation Technical Clinical Site and Equipment QA and Compliance Checking Ultrasound Elasticity Estimation Biomarker US Elasticity Estimation Background Current Status and Problems Biomarker Selection-process and outcome US SWS for Liver Fibrosis Biomarker Work Groundwork Literature search and analysis results Phase I phantom testing-Elastic phantoms Phase II phantom testing-Viscoelastic phantoms Digital Simulated Data Protocol and Profile Drafting Protocol: based on UPICT and existing literature and standards bodies protocols Profile-Current claims, Manufacturer specific appendices What comes after the profile Profile Validation Technical validation Clinical validation QA and Compliance Possible approaches Site Operator testing Site protocol re-evaluation Imaging system Manufacturer testing and attestation User acceptance testing and periodic QA Phantom Tests Digital Phantom Based Testing Standard QA Testing Remediation Schemes Profile Evolution Towards additional applications Towards higher accuracy and precision Supported in part by NIH contract HHSN268201300071C from NIBIB. Collaboration with GE Global Research, no personal support.; S. Chen, Some technologies described in this presentation have been licensed. Mayo Clinic and Dr. Chen have financial interests these technologies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TH-A-207B-01: Basics and Current Implementations of Ultrasound Imaging of Shear Wave Speed and Elasticity

Imaging of tissue elastic properties is a relatively new and powerful approach to one of the oldest and most important diagnostic tools. Imaging of shear wave speed with ultrasound is has been added to most high-end ultrasound systems. Understanding this exciting imaging mode aiding its most effective use in medicine can be a rewarding effort for medical physicists and other medical imaging and treatment professionals. Assuring consistent, quantitative measurements across the many ultrasound systems in a typical imaging department will constitute a major step toward realizing the great potential of this technique and other quantitative imaging. This session will target these two goals with two presentations. A. Basics and Current Implementations of Ultrasound Imaging of Shear Wave Speed and Elasticity - Shigao Chen, Ph.D. Learning objectives-To understand: Introduction: Importance of tissue elasticity measurement Strain vs. shear wave elastography (SWE), beneficial features of SWE The link between shear wave speed and material properties, influence of viscosity Generation of shear waves External vibration (Fibroscan) ultrasound radiation force Point push Supersonic push (Aixplorer) Comb push (GE Logiq E9) Detection of shear waves Motion detection from pulse-echo ultrasound Importance of frame rate for shear wave imaging Plane wave imaging detection How to achieve high effective frame rate using line-by-line scanners Shear wave speed calculation Time to peak Random sample consensus (RANSAC) Cross correlation Sources of bias and variation in SWE Tissue viscosity Transducer compression or internal pressure of organ Reflection of shear waves at boundaries B. Elasticity Imaging System Biomarker Qualification and User Testing of Systems – Brian Garra, M.D. Learning objectives-To understand: Goals Review the need for quantitative medical imaging Provide examples of quantitative imaging biomarkers Acquaint the participant with the purpose of the RSNA Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance and the need for such an organization Review the QIBA process for creating a quantitative biomarker Summarize steps needed to verify adherence of site, operators, and imaging systems to a QIBA profile Underlying Premise and Assumptions Objective, quantifiable results are needed to enhance the value of diagnostic imaging in clinical practice Reasons for quantification Evidence based medicine requires objective, not subjective observer data Computerized decision support tools (eg CAD) generally require quantitative input. Quantitative, reproducible measures are more easily used to develop personalized molecular medical diagnostic and treatment systems What is quantitative imaging? Definition from Imaging Metrology Workshop The Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance Formation 2008 Mission Structure Example Imaging Biomarkers Being Explored Biomarker Selection Groundwork Draft Protocol for imaging and data evaluation QIBA Profile Drafting Equipment and Site Validation Technical Clinical Site and Equipment QA and Compliance Checking Ultrasound Elasticity Estimation Biomarker US Elasticity Estimation Background Current Status and Problems Biomarker Selection-process and outcome US SWS for Liver Fibrosis Biomarker Work Groundwork Literature search and analysis results Phase I phantom testing-Elastic phantoms Phase II phantom testing-Viscoelastic phantoms Digital Simulated Data Protocol and Profile Drafting Protocol: based on UPICT and existing literature and standards bodies protocols Profile-Current claims, Manufacturer specific appendices What comes after the profile Profile Validation Technical validation Clinical validation QA and Compliance Possible approaches Site Operator testing Site protocol re-evaluation Imaging system Manufacturer testing and attestation User acceptance testing and periodic QA Phantom Tests Digital Phantom Based Testing Standard QA Testing Remediation Schemes Profile Evolution Towards additional applications Towards higher accuracy and precision Supported in part by NIH contract HHSN268201300071C from NIBIB. Collaboration with GE Global Research, no personal support.; S. Chen, Some technologies described in this presentation have been licensed. Mayo Clinic and Dr. Chen have financial interests these technologies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

TH-A-207B-02: QIBA Ultrasound Elasticity Imaging System Biomarker Qualification and User Testing of Systems

Imaging of tissue elastic properties is a relatively new and powerful approach to one of the oldest and most important diagnostic tools. Imaging of shear wave speed with ultrasound is has been added to most high-end ultrasound systems. Understanding this exciting imaging mode aiding its most effective use in medicine can be a rewarding effort for medical physicists and other medical imaging and treatment professionals. Assuring consistent, quantitative measurements across the many ultrasound systems in a typical imaging department will constitute a major step toward realizing the great potential of this technique and other quantitative imaging. This session will target these two goals with two presentations. A. Basics and Current Implementations of Ultrasound Imaging of Shear Wave Speed and Elasticity - Shigao Chen, Ph.D. Learning objectives-To understand: Introduction: Importance of tissue elasticity measurement Strain vs. shear wave elastography (SWE), beneficial features of SWE The link between shear wave speed and material properties, influence of viscosity Generation of shear waves External vibration (Fibroscan) ultrasound radiation force Point push Supersonic push (Aixplorer) Comb push (GE Logiq E9) Detection of shear waves Motion detection from pulse-echo ultrasound Importance of frame rate for shear wave imaging Plane wave imaging detection How to achieve high effective frame rate using line-by-line scanners Shear wave speed calculation Time to peak Random sample consensus (RANSAC) Cross correlation Sources of bias and variation in SWE Tissue viscosity Transducer compression or internal pressure of organ Reflection of shear waves at boundaries B. Elasticity Imaging System Biomarker Qualification and User Testing of Systems – Brian Garra, M.D. Learning objectives-To understand: Goals Review the need for quantitative medical imaging Provide examples of quantitative imaging biomarkers Acquaint the participant with the purpose of the RSNA Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance and the need for such an organization Review the QIBA process for creating a quantitative biomarker Summarize steps needed to verify adherence of site, operators, and imaging systems to a QIBA profile Underlying Premise and Assumptions Objective, quantifiable results are needed to enhance the value of diagnostic imaging in clinical practice Reasons for quantification Evidence based medicine requires objective, not subjective observer data Computerized decision support tools (eg CAD) generally require quantitative input. Quantitative, reproducible measures are more easily used to develop personalized molecular medical diagnostic and treatment systems What is quantitative imaging? Definition from Imaging Metrology Workshop The Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance Formation 2008 Mission Structure Example Imaging Biomarkers Being Explored Biomarker Selection Groundwork Draft Protocol for imaging and data evaluation QIBA Profile Drafting Equipment and Site Validation Technical Clinical Site and Equipment QA and Compliance Checking Ultrasound Elasticity Estimation Biomarker US Elasticity Estimation Background Current Status and Problems Biomarker Selection-process and outcome US SWS for Liver Fibrosis Biomarker Work Groundwork Literature search and analysis results Phase I phantom testing-Elastic phantoms Phase II phantom testing-Viscoelastic phantoms Digital Simulated Data Protocol and Profile Drafting Protocol: based on UPICT and existing literature and standards bodies protocols Profile-Current claims, Manufacturer specific appendices What comes after the profile Profile Validation Technical validation Clinical validation QA and Compliance Possible approaches Site Operator testing Site protocol re-evaluation Imaging system Manufacturer testing and attestation User acceptance testing and periodic QA Phantom Tests Digital Phantom Based Testing Standard QA Testing Remediation Schemes Profile Evolution Towards additional applications Towards higher accuracy and precision Supported in part by NIH contract HHSN268201300071C from NIBIB. Collaboration with GE Global Research, no personal support.; S. Chen, Some technologies described in this presentation have been licensed. Mayo Clinic and Dr. Chen have financial interests these technologies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

PlotData v. 4.47

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer program to review, reduce and manipulate waveform data. PlotData is designed for post-acquisition waveform data analysis. PlotData is both a post-acquisition and an advanced interactive data analysis environment. PlotData requires unidirectional waveform data with both uniform and discrete time-series measurements. PlotData operates on a National Instruments' LabVIEW™ software platform. Using PlotData, the user can capture waveform data from digitizing oscilloscopes over a GPIB, USB and Ethernet interface from Tektronix, Lecroy or Agilent scopes. PlotData can both import and export several types of binary waveform files including, but not limited to, Tektronix .wmf files, Lecroy.trc files and xy pair ASCIIfiles. Waveform manipulation includes numerous math functions, integration, differentiation, smoothing, truncation, and other specialized data reduction routines such as VISAR, POV, PVDF (Bauer) piezoelectric gauges, and piezoresistive gauges such as carbon manganin pressure gauges.

Wackerbarth, David↗

MPACT FY2011 Advanced Time-Correlated Measurement Research at INL

Simulations and experiments have been carried out to investigate advanced time-correlated measurement methods for characterizing and assaying nuclear material for safeguarding the nuclear fuel cycle. These activities are part of a project studying advanced instrumentation techniques in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Fuel Cycle Research and Development program and its Materials Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program. For fiscal year 2011 work focused on examining the practical experimental aspects of using a time-tagged, associated-particle electronic neutron generator for interrogating low-enrichment uranium in combination with steady-state interrogation using a moderated 241Am-Li neutron source. Simulation work for the project involved the use of the MCNP-PoliMi Monte Carlo simulation tool to determine the relative strength and the time-of-flight energy spectra of different sample materials under irradiation. Work also took place to develop a post-processor parser code to extract comparable data from the MCNP5&6 codes. Experiments took place using a commercial deuterium-tritium associated-particle electronic neutron generator to irradiate a number of uranium-bearing material samples. Time-correlated measurements of neutron and photon signatures of these measurements were made using five liquid scintillator detectors in a novel array, using high-speed waveform digitizers for data collection. This report summarizes the experiments that took place in FY2011, presents preliminary analyses that have been carried out to date for a subpart of these experiments, and describes future activities planned in this area. The report also describes support Idaho National Laboratory gave to Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 2011 to facilitate 2-dimensional imagery of mixed-oxide fuel pins for safeguards applications as a part of the MPACT program.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Utilization of GIS technology to support development of flow and contaminant fate and transport models at US DOE sites - 15457

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites have accumulated years of data and millions of spatial and temporal records related to the hydrological cycle, contaminant transport, and parameters of remediation technologies. In addition, numerical models which use field monitoring data to help understand flow and transport produce gigabytes of computed spatial and temporal data for each computation node. There is a need therefore for an advanced spatial data structure that can be used to address the management, processing, and analysis of spatial and temporal numerical modeling data derived from multiple sources. This can be accomplished using a geo-database. The development of an ArcSDE geo-database facilitates the centralized storage, backup, accessibility, organization, and management of model configuration and computed simulation data, putting it into a structured, coherent, and logical computer-supported system. GIS data processing and automation would enable faster and hence more complex analyses of field test data. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) has provided analysis of flow and transport for several watersheds at DOE's Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), including East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC), Upper EFPC in the Y-12 National Security Complex area (Y-12 NSC) and White Oak Creek (WOC). Integrated surface and subsurface flow, fate and transport models were developed to provide analysis of contaminant patterns within each watershed. In addition, digital monitoring data available from the Oak Ridge Environmental Information System (OREIS) related to mercury (Hg) contamination and remediation within these watersheds was used for calibration and verification of the model. Experimental studies were also carried out which provided kinetic and equilibrium data about important parameters related to Hg transport, speciation and methylation/demethylation kinetics within the watershed. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology was employed to support the modeling work through storage and geo-processing of spatial and temporal data required by the models and to produce hydrogeological maps for visualization. An ArcGIS geo-database was developed for centralized storage and management of experimental and computed model data and its capabilities were extended over the years using tools such as ModelBuilder combined with Python scripting to automate repetitive tasks, perform statistical analyses and generate maps and reports. The hydrologic geo-database model developed possesses a structure that enables linkage with scalable hydrologic modeling tools/applications to model hydrologic systems, and in this case, enables the testing of the potential impacts of various remediation scenarios on the ORR watersheds. The ArcSDE geo-database can also be used to automate and simplify the process of calling stored GIS and time series data. This geo-database can serve as a tool for contaminant flow and transport analyses which require large amounts of high-quality spatial and temporal data in order to ensure reliability and validity of modeling results. The existing geo-database structure developed for the hydrological modeling at ORR was designed to be replicable for application at other DOE sites. An investigation of downloadable free/open source GIS software along with required security protocols to facilitate online querying of the database was also conducted to determine methods by which project-derived data can be more easily shared with other project stakeholders such as DOE personnel and site contractors. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Toward an understanding of foreground emission in the BICEP2 region

BICEP2 has reported the detection of a degree-scale B-mode polarization pattern in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and has interpreted the measurement as evidence for primordial gravitational waves. Motivated by the profound importance of the discovery of gravitational waves from the early Universe, we examine to what extent a combination of Galactic foregrounds and lensed E-modes could be responsible for the signal. We reanalyze the BICEP2 results and show that the 100 ×150 GHz and 150 ×150 GHz data are consistent with a cosmology with r=0.2 and negligible foregrounds, but also with a cosmology with r=0 and a significant dust polarization signal. We give independent estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region using a number of different approaches: (1) data-driven models based on Planck 353 GHz intensity, polarization fractions inferred from the same Planck data used by the BICEP2 team but corrected for CMB and CIB contributions, and polarization angles from starlight polarization data or the Planck sky model; (2) the same set of pre-Planck models used by the BICEP2 team but taking into account the higher polarization fractions observed in the CMB- and CIB-corrected map; (3) a measurement of neutral hydrogen gas column density N{sub HI} in the BICEP2 region combined with an extrapolation of a relation between HI column density and dust polarization derived by Planck; and (4) a dust polarization map based on digitized Planck data, which we only use as a final cross-check. While these approaches are consistent with each other, the expected amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum remains uncertain by about a factor of three. The lower end of the prediction leaves room for a primordial contribution, but at the higher end the dust in combination with the standard CMB lensing signal could account for the BICEP2 observations, without requiring the existence of primordial gravitational waves. By measuring the cross-correlations between the pre-Planck templates used in the BICEP2 analysis and between different versions of a data-based template, we emphasize that cross-correlations between models are very sensitive to noise in the polarization angles and that measured cross-correlations are likely underestimates of the contribution of foregrounds to the map. These results suggest that BICEP1 and BICEP2 data alone cannot distinguish between foregrounds and a primordial gravitational wave signal, and that future Keck Array observations at 100 GHz and Planck observations at higher frequencies will be crucial to determine whether the signal is of primordial origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Digital Instrumentation & Controls Study with Operating Experience Data

The slides present the plan and working progress on the digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) study with nuclear industry operating experience data. They were originally prepared as a working document and presented to the NRC, but then was asked by the NRC to present to an EPRI/NRC meeting on DI&C. The slides will also be distributed to the meeting participants.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE Advanced Scientific Computing Advisory Committee (ASCAC) Subcommittee Report on Scientific and Technical Information

The Advanced Scientific Computing Advisory Committee (ASCAC) was charged to form a standing subcommittee to review the Department of Energy’s Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) and to begin by assessing the quality and effectiveness of OSTI’s recent and current products and services and to comment on its mission and future directions in the rapidly changing environment for scientific publication and data. The Committee met with OSTI staff and reviewed available products, services and other materials. This report summaries their initial findings and recommendations.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Mid-Atlantic U.S. Offshore Carbon Storage Resource Assessment Project (Final Technical Report)

The greatest potential for carbon storage in the northeastern United States lies in the offshore geologic formations comprising the outer continental shelf (Monteverde et al., 2011). Offshore storage can be linked to large point-sources of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) while avoiding many of the logistical difficulties and potential risks encountered when siting onshore projects, especially in densely populated areas of the East Coast. Offshore CO 2 storage assessment and research in the United States is underway to address uncertainty in potential storage resources, particularly in the mid- and north-Atlantic offshore area. Given the current knowledge base and access to publicly available data, the objectives of the Mid-Atlantic U.S. Offshore Carbon Storage Resource Assessment Project (MAOCSRAP) were fourfold: (1) complete a systematic carbon storage resource assessment of the mid-Atlantic offshore coastal region from the Georges Bank Basin (GBB) through the Long Island Platform (LIP) to the southern Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT); (2) define key input parameters to reduce uncertainty for offshore storage resource and efficiency estimates; (3) perform a preliminary assessment of risk factors, uncertainties, and data gaps; and (4) engage industry and regulatory stakeholders through development of a Road Map to assist future project planning and implementation. The MAOCSRAP project has compiled, inventoried, and assimilated various publicly available data sets to provide a strong technical basis on which future carbon storage studies and applications can be built. The knowledge infrastructure necessary to support the development of full-scale offshore carbon storage include: Defining the geologic characteristics of candidate storage sites (Chapter 2). Using existing seismic data to better define the continuity of the storage zones and seals (Chapter 3). Cataloguing the hydrogeologic properties of mid-Atlantic offshore storage sites (Chapter 4). Calculating prospective CO 2 storage resources using net effective pore volumes and fluid displacement properties specific to offshore lithologies (Chapter 5). Examining risk factors related to offshore storage (Chapter 6). Communicating with industry and other stakeholders about the future prospects for offshore storage (Chapter 7). Ensuring technology transfer to industry and other stakeholders (Chapter 8). Led by Battelle, this project was conducted by public and private entities with expertise in offshore geology and resources for the study region, including state geological surveys of Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania; United States Geological Survey-Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center and Haifa University; Rutgers University; Harvard University; and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) at Columbia University. The storage resource assessment was completed for a broad region offshore of the U.S. East Coast, from Massachusetts to Virginia. The results include high-level storage resource estimates for areas not previously characterized and improved storage resource estimates for geographically expansive portions of offshore geologic units. Results of the project provide a foundation for developing CO 2 storage along offshore areas of the mid-Atlantic United States. A combination of information was used to provide confidence in project results. Key findings of the major project tasks are summarized as follows. Subsurface Data Analysis: Legacy seismic, well-log, core, and biostratigraphic data were digitized, reprocessed, and analyzed using modern techniques, augmenting previous characterization efforts. The sequence stratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous and Jurassic strata was developed by correlating well-log depositional sequences to seismic reflectors identified in the BCT, LIP, and GBB. The integration of well-log stratigraphy with seismic stratigraphy and petrophysical analysis helped to identify and map potential storage zones within sequences of the Logan Canyon (LC), Missisauga, and Mohawk formations, as well as the regionally extensive caprock comprised of the Dawson Canyon shale. Approximately 4,000 kilometers (km) of seismic data was reprocessed to create a structural framework that was used to tie together all available well data, constrain sequence stratigraphic interpretations, and make regional assessments of offshore carbon storage resources. Prospective storage resource estimates were 150 to 1136 megatons (Mt) for the combined storage zones. This suggests mid-Atlantic U.S. offshore formations can store decades of CO 2 from industrial sources in the region. Preliminary local reservoir simulations suggest that injection rates of 1 Mt CO 2 /year may be sustained for 30 years in single injection wells in the BCT. Advanced geologic modeling and new data acquisition are needed to address data gaps and advance carbon capture and storage (CCS) in key offshore areas selected for further investigation. Offshore Risk Factors: Offshore geologic risk factors include soft sediment deformation, unit continuity, sedimentological and structural features, seismicity and hydrates. CO 2 storage risks include inadequate seals, migration/leakage, and chemical interactions leading to decreased storage. Sensitive habitats, environmental impacts, disturbance to seafloor, and other risks need to be identified in advance of project activities and integrated into detailed mitigation plans for all project phases. Stakeholder Engagement: Input and participation from government, industry, and environmental groups provided input into the Road Map and address next steps needed for project deployment. Early engagement and ongoing communication, as well as policy framework development, is key to large-scale deployment of CCS. Next Steps: This project represents an important first step by completing a high-level CO 2 storage resource assessment and building the knowledge infrastructure necessary to improve quantitative storage resource estimates. The data sets that have been curated under this project provide an opportunity to conduct research and development (R&D) needed to address data gaps and reduce risk and uncertainty. Offshore characterization and validation strategies that are systematically designed to provide data and infrastructure that can be upscaled to meet commercial requirements could be developed off of this foundation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2009) (V. 2012)

Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751. Etemad et al. (1991) published a summary compilation that tabulates coal, brown coal, peat, and crude oil production by nation and year. Footnotes in the Etemad et al.(1991) publication extend the energy statistics time series back to 1751. Summary compilations of fossil fuel trade were published by Mitchell (1983, 1992, 1993, 1995). Mitchell's work tabulates solid and liquid fuel imports and exports by nation and year. These pre-1950 production and trade data were digitized and CO2 emission calculations were made following the procedures discussed in Marland and Rotty (1984) and Boden et al. (1995). Further details on the contents and processing of the historical energy statistics are provided in Andres et al. (1999). The 1950 to present CO2 emission estimates are derived primarily from energy statistics published by the United Nations (2012), using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The energy statistics were compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the U.N. Statistical Office and supplemented by official national statistical publications. As stated in the introduction of the Statistical Yearbook, "in a few cases, official sources are supplemented by other sources and estimates, where these have been subjected to professional scrutiny and debate and are consistent with other independent sources." Data from the U.S. Department of Interior's Geological Survey (USGS 2011) were used to estimate CO2 emitted during cement production. Values for emissions from gas flaring were derived primarily from U.N. data but were supplemented with data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (1994), Rotty (1974), and data provided by G. Marland. Greater details about these methods are provided in Marland and Rotty (1984), Boden et al. (1995), and Andres et al. (1999).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (1751 - 2010) (V. 2013)

Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751. Etemad et al. (1991) published a summary compilation that tabulates coal, brown coal, peat, and crude oil production by nation and year. Footnotes in the Etemad et al.(1991) publication extend the energy statistics time series back to 1751. Summary compilations of fossil fuel trade were published by Mitchell (1983, 1992, 1993, 1995). Mitchell's work tabulates solid and liquid fuel imports and exports by nation and year. These pre-1950 production and trade data were digitized and CO2 emission calculations were made following the procedures discussed in Marland and Rotty (1984) and Boden et al. (1995). Further details on the contents and processing of the historical energy statistics are provided in Andres et al. (1999). The 1950 to present CO2 emission estimates are derived primarily from energy statistics published by the United Nations (2013), using the methods of Marland and Rotty (1984). The energy statistics were compiled primarily from annual questionnaires distributed by the U.N. Statistical Office and supplemented by official national statistical publications. As stated in the introduction of the Statistical Yearbook, "in a few cases, official sources are supplemented by other sources and estimates, where these have been subjected to professional scrutiny and debate and are consistent with other independent sources." Data from the U.S. Department of Interior's Geological Survey (USGS 2012) were used to estimate CO2 emitted during cement production. Values for emissions from gas flaring were derived primarily from U.N. data but were supplemented with data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (1994), Rotty (1974), and data provided by G. Marland. Greater details about these methods are provided in Marland and Rotty (1984), Boden et al. (1995), and Andres et al. (1999).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗